Vol. 19 No. 4 The Long Ranger Rides High in Value Late-Model Large Cabins Rocket in Price Carl Janssens, ASA Aircraft Bluebook Price Digest In the midst of all the usual confusion with the economy, real-estate woes and the subprime lending practices offering fuel for a possible recession, general and corporate aviation value trends continue to remain generally stable. Even the nearly $100 per barrel price for crude oil seems to get at the most a raised eyebrow at the pump. After a possible grumble, it s wheels up, and life goes on. It s the American way. Jet Increased.... 175 Decreased...122 Stable...491 Late-model wide-body pond hoppers continue to soar in value. As an example, of the 193 Gulfstream G-V s reported in global inventory by AMSTAT, there are only three known for sale or lease. Aircraft Bluebook reports gains in the $1 million range for the G-V when compared to the previous quarter. Likewise, Global Express, Falcon 900s, Gulfstream G-IVSP, Challenger 604 and 605 as well as the aforementioned next generation Gulfstream 450/550 series are all riding the hi yo silver lining of the million-dollar-plus increases in value when compared to the previous fall quarter. Other late-model jets, such as the Hawker 800XP, Lear 45XR, Citation Sovereign 680 and the Falcon 50EX, remained stable for another quarter. Gulfstream G150s, Hawker XPs and Citation Excel were other examples of a stable environment. The exception was the Challenger, which enjoyed the million-dollar-plus gains when compared to last quarter. The Citation Jet CJ3 was up $200,000 while the Beech Premier remained stable. Turboprop Increased....188 Decreased...36 Stable...491 The turboprop market demonstrated stability in values. Late-model King Airs remained unmoved in value with regard to the previous reporting period. The Pilatus PC-12s were up $100,000 for the winter edition of Bluebook while the Piaggio P180 remained unchanged for the most part with a few late models showing gains in value when compared to last quarter. Socota TBM 700 and 850 series also remained unchanged with a few model years in the plus column for price change. Piper Meridian was the only late-model turboprop to show a decrease in value. The Cessna Caravan 208 series were up a modest $25,000 from last quarter in Bluebook. Multi Increased....66 Decreased...184 Stable... 2416 2007-2008 WINTER 1
Of the 2,666 multi-engine aircraft tracked in Aircraft Bluebook, for the most part, everything remained pretty close to steady. There were fewer decreases in value and even fewer gains for the reporting period. One thing is for certain: These real property assets are more sensitive to the nation s economy. In this category, individuals not corporations hold the majority of interests in aircraft. On the positive side, most aircraft financing is based on prime lending versus the subprime lending practices in real estate. This means balances and crosschecks are more financially stable, thus lessening the risk of loan foreclosure. Single Increased....157 Decreased...583 Stable... 1648 Approximately two-thirds of the single-piston market was reported stable from the previous quarter. Some Beech Bonanzas as well as select American Champion series aircraft reported slight gains. Most other models were either unchanged or slightly down from the previous Bluebook reporting period. Normal depreciation was the main cause for slight downturns. The single-piston market remained confident even in the midst of slow growth as reported in new aircraft sales in this category. Helicopter Increased....167 Decreased...29 Stable... 722 For a third straight quarter, values in helicopters continued to move upward. Most of the gains were modest in comparison to the total values. Nonetheless, with global interest in late-model turbine helicopters, values continued to rise. The Bell 430 reported increases of $50,000 while the remaining turbine models remained stable or gained in the $20,000 range. Eurocopters experienced the same value trends with value increases in the $20,000 range. MD Helicopters followed suit with remaining models such as Sikorsky and Enstrom 480 remaining stable. Decreases for the quarter were slight and were reflected in the piston models. 2 MARKETLINE
USED AIRCRAFT MARKET VALUE Percent 130 125 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 99.69 111.84 109.53 100 95 90 85 80 130 125 115 110 105 95.28 Used Aircraft Market. This chart displays each model s quarterly value in relationship to its average equipped price at the inception of the aircraft. The study begins in the Spring quarter of 1994 and includes the Jet, Turboprop, Multi, Piston and Helicopter. For all charts, the red number indicates the first reporting date after 9-11. JET 11000 10500 10000 9500 9000 8500 8000 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 8455.0 10151.7 8962.5 1990 Model % Change Raytheon Hawker 0.0% Cessna Citation II 0.0% Dassault Falcon 50 0.0% IAI Astra 1125SP ( ) 2.1% Lear 31 ( ) 2.2% Gulfstream G-IV (+) 2.9% 8500 8000 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 11000 10500 10000 9500 9000 6975.0 Jet. The jet chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the six 1990 jets listed in the box. 2007-2008 WINTER 3
TURBOPROP Thousands 1600 1550 1500 1450 1 1350 1 1250 0 1150 1100 1498.3 Model % Change 1990 Beech B200 King Air (+) 4.5% 1990 Beech C90A (+) 2.4% 1986 Cessna 441 Conquest (+) 2.8% 1985 Mitsubishi MU-2 Marquis 0.0% 1990 Piper Cheyenne III 0.0% 1990 Cessna 208 Caravan (+) 2.9% 1466.7 1333.3 1550 1500 1450 1 1350 1 1250 0 1150 1100 1600 1425.8 Turboprop. The turboprop chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of a 1985, 1986 and four 1990 turboprops listed in the box. Thousands 390 380 370 350 340 330 310 342.3 MULTI 397.3 386.5 Model % Change 1986 Beech 58P Pressurized Baron 0.0% 1990 Beech 58 Baron 0.0% 1985 Cessna 421 Eagle III ( ) 2.2% 1981 Cessna 310 0.0% 1982 Piper PA-31-310C Navajo ( ) 1.9% 1990 Piper PA-34-220T Seneca III ( ) 4.5% 390 380 370 350 340 330 310 312.8 Multi. The multi chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the six multi models listed in the box. Each model s year will precede the name of the aircraft. 4 MARKETLINE
Thousands 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 110 100 134.8 PISTON 164.2 161.4 Model % Change 1990 Beech A36 Bonanza 0.0% 1990 Beech F33 Bonanza ( ) 2.4% 1986 Cessna 210 Centurian II 0.0% 1986 Cessna 172P Skyhawk B 0.0% 1985 Cessna 152 Commuter II 0.0% 1990 Mooney 252TSE ( ) 2.7% 1990 Piper PA-28-236 Dakota 0.0% 1990 Piper PA-28R-201 Arrow 0.0% 1990 Piper PA-28-181 Archer II ( ) 1.3% 1990 Piper PA-28-161 Warrior II ( ) 3.6% 140 130 110 100 190 180 170 160 150 200 136.3 Piston. The piston chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the 10 pistons listed in the box. Each model s year will precede the name of the aircraft. HELICOPTER Thousands 420 380 340 280 260 312.6 349.1 345.8 Model % Change 1990 Eurocopter AS350B Ecureuil 0.0% 1990 Bell 206B III (+) 5.5% 1990 Enstrom 280FX 0.0% 1982 Hiller FH1100 0.0% 1990 McDonnell Douglas MD 500E 0.0% 1990 Robinson R22 0.0% 340 280 260 420 380 384.8 Helicopter. The helicopter chart depicts the average price (in thousands) of the six helicopters listed in the box. Each model s year will precede the name of the aircraft. 2007-2008 WINTER 5
NASDAQ 5000 4500 0 3500 0 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 603.7 743.4 1101.4 4572.8 1498.80 5000 4500 0 3500 0 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1234123 92 93 2701.5 NASDAQ: This ratio scale chart depicts the change for the NASDAQ daily average from quarter to quarter beginning at the end of the first quarter of 1992. Each data point represents the closing daily average on the last trading day of each quarter. This study originates in the first quarter of 1971. AIRCRAFT ON REGISTRY March '89 September '07 4,558 6,080 26,968 8,288 11,162 11,037 21,758 13,659 187,662 202,401 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Jet Turboprop Multi Single Helicopter Aircraft on Registry. The Aircraft on Registry chart depicts the number of aircraft reported in Aircraft Bluebook which are listed on FAA records and considered to be in the U.S. inventory. 6 MARKETLINE
800 760 720 680 640 600 560 520 480 440 280 240 200 160 80 40 0 EXPORTS Units Million U.S. Dollars JJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJA 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Export Data. These numbers include both airplanes and helicopters. The numbers do not include aircraft that have empty weights in excess of 33,069 lbs. Thousands 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 CHANGE-OF-OWNERSHIP SINGLE MULTI Single: 5,264 Multi: 416 2341234123412341234123412341234123412341234123412341234123 93 Single/Multi. The blue line in the Single Multi chart depicts change-of-ownership data for singles. The black line represents multis. 2007-2008 WINTER 7
CHANGE-OF-OWNERSHIP JET TURBOPROP HELI 0 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 200 Jet: 550 Turboprop: 509 Heli: 510 2341234123412341234123412341234123412341234123412341234123 93 Jet/Turboprop/Heli. The black line in the Jet Turboprop Heli chart represents change-of-ownership information for jets. The blue line depicts turboprops, while the gray line represents helicopters. 14 CHANGE-OF-OWNERSHIP TOTAL MARKET 12 10 10,152 7,124 7,736 8 8,455 7,249 6 6,882 6,795 2341234123412341234123412341234123412341234123412341234123 93 Total Market. Depicts change-of-ownership data for all aircraft included in the Aircraft Bluebook. The numbers are from the FAA Registry. Gliders, homebuilts, airliners and other aircraft not found in the Bluebook are not included in this study. 8 MARKETLINE