YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST

Similar documents
YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST

Global Aerospace & Defense Market Report

YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST

IATA ECONOMIC BRIEFING FEBRUARY 2007

Worldwide Fleet Forecast

AEROSPACE & ELECTRONICS BRENDAN CURRAN PRESIDENT

Thank you for participating in the financial results for fiscal 2014.

Happy Jetting. A Conversation With Dave Barger, President And Chief Executive Officer, JetBlue Airways, Page 14.

THE SHIFTING LANDSCAPE for THE MAINTENANCE, REPAIR AND OVERHAUL MARKET

MRO Market Update & Industry Trends

NBAA 2015 MARKET UPDATE

executive summary The global commercial aircraft fleet in service is expected to increase by 80% to 45,600 aircraft in 2033 including 37,900

Management s Review and Analysis of Financial Position

The Global Military Aviation MRO Market

Thales on the Civil Aerospace market

CONTACT: Investor Relations Corporate Communications

Queensland Economic Update

TURBULENCE AHEAD DISENGAGE THE AUTOPILOT GLOBAL FLEET & MRO MARKET FORECAST

AIR PASSENGER MARKET ANALYSIS

Land area 1.73 million km 2 Queensland population (as at 31 December 2017) Brisbane population* (preliminary estimate as at 30 June 2017)

2009 Business Aviation Outlook

2009 Business Aviation Outlook

NBAA 2014 Business Aviation Market Update. October 2014

~ - ';'l~i..' f(";''.:~_, '- -"~' '..:,o ':.. : ~-'-'-""'-"-" ' '----'- ' -' = r'j.d,.-.-_,...)!_ r '.,, ; - '.~... :.r

Index of business confidence. Monthly FTK (Billions) Aug 2013 vs. Aug 2012 YTD 2013 vs. YTD 2012 Aug 2013 vs. Jul 2013

48 Oct-15. Nov-15. Travel is expected to grow over the coming 6 months; at a slower rate

AIR CARGO RECOVERY DRIVERS AND ROADBLOCKS Airports Council International North America Calgary

Aviation Updates. Mr. John Schubert. Managing Director, Marketing-Asia Pacific & India

3. Aviation Activity Forecasts

Randy Tinseth Vice President, Marketing Boeing Commercial Airplanes July 2010

Song Rui Tourism Research Center, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences March 7, 2018, Berlin

ECONOMIC REFORMS AND THEIR IMPACT ON CIVIL AVIATION. CIVIL AVIATION - AN ECONOMIC CATALYST. WIDER SPIN-OFF BENEFITS.

El Al Israel Airlines announced today its financial results for the year 2016 and the fourth quarter of the year:

Land area 1.73 million km 2 Queensland population (as at December 2016) Brisbane population* (preliminary estimate as at 30 June 2016)

Investor Update September 2017 PARTNER OF CHOICE EMPLOYER OF CHOICE INVESTMENT OF CHOICE

For personal use only

The Global Competitiveness of the U.S. Aviation Industry: Addressing Competition Issues to Maintain U.S. leadership in the Aerospace Market

Global economy and aviation do we have room to grow?

Management Discussions and Analysis for the three-month period ended 31 March 2014 and Executive Summary

MRO Asia 2012 Market Forecast and Key Trends

ANA HOLDINGS Financial Results for the Three Months Ended June 30, 2018

QANTAS DELIVERS STRONG FIRST HALF RESULT DESPITE HIGHER FUEL BILL

Land area 1.73 million km 2 Queensland population (December 2015) Brisbane population* (June 2015)

Aircraft industry takes off while air transport remains grounded

AIR TRANSPORT MARKET ANALYSIS MAY 2011

Aircraft Controls MILITARY AIRCRAFT COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT AFTERMARKET

Media Release. Qantas Group Full Year 2017 Financial Result 1. Sydney, 25 August 2017

CONTACT: Investor Relations Corporate Communications

PREMIUM TRAFFIC MONITOR AUGUST 2015 KEY POINTS

2008 Farnborough Airshow

Agenda. Introduction Christine Ourmières-Widener. Financial Review Ian Milne. Performance Update & Outlook Christine Ourmières-Widener

SkyWest, Inc. Announces First Quarter 2018 Profit

Gabelli Asset Management Aircraft Supplier Conference

Applied Project: Boeing ECO Summer II 8/06/2015. John Deans, Joseph Oliver, John Pritchett

Mr. Adel Al-Banwan Deputy CEO

Interim Business Report 2017

MIRAMAR, Fla., April 29, 2015 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Spirit Airlines, Inc. (Nasdaq:SAVE) today reported first quarter 2015 financial results.

CLINGING TO THE PAST OCTOBER Presented by: Brian Prentice. AVIATION, AEROSPACE & DEFENSE Oliver Wyman

CHANGING AVIATION INDUSTRY FINANCE CHANGING THE WORLD

MENA HOTEL MARKET REVIEW MUSCAT OMAN 2018

Air Transport Industry

Gorham PMA Conference San Diego, CA March, 2016

2015 Q3 Investor Conference

BUSINESS AVIATION MARKET OUTLOOK

current market outlook

Airlines across the world connected a record number of cities this year, with more than 20,000 city pair connections*

49 May-17. Jun-17. Travel is expected to grow over the coming 6 months; at a slower rate

ROUTE TRAFFIC FORECASTING DATA, TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES

Quarterly Aviation Industry Performance

Yakima Air Terminal McAllister Field. Aviation Demand Forecast Workshop October 13, 2011

CONTACT: Investor Relations Corporate Communications

ANA Reports Record Profits for FY2012

Airbus. Tom Enders Airbus. 15 & 16 December 2011

AerCap Holdings N.V. Aengus Kelly, CEO. January 2017

Higher (And Scarier) Strongest Aircraft Market Outlook In Ten Years

The Economic Impact of Emirates in the United States. Prepared by:

Logistics Beyond Transportation

Randy Tinseth Vice President, Marketing Boeing Commercial Airplanes

PREMIUM TRAFFIC MONITOR OCTOBER 2015 KEY POINTS

Aviation Industry Skills and Workforce Development: A Higher Education Perspective

SKYWEST, INC. ANNOUNCES THIRD QUARTER 2012 RESULTS

Oct-17 Nov-17. Sep-17. Travel is expected to grow over the coming 6 months; at a slightly faster rate

SECTION 3 AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

IATA ECONOMICS BRIEFING AIRLINE BUSINESS CONFIDENCE INDEX OCTOBER 2010 SURVEY

SKYWEST, INC. ANNOUNCES THIRD QUARTER 2014 RESULTS

BUSINESS REVIEW. OE revenue 47% Services revenue 53% Large engines 63% Small & medium 37%

PRODUCTIVITY GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT RETURN ON COSTS NATIONAL PRIORITIES BALANCE OF TRADE NOISE, SONIC BOOM AND RADIATION POLLUTION JOBS AND DOLLARS

Media Release HIGHLIGHTS QANTAS RESULTS FOR THE YEAR ENDED 30 JUNE 2005

20-Year Forecast: Strong Long-Term Growth

Examining the pre-owned large cabin business jet market in 2015

Global Investor Forum Airbus. Fabrice Brégier Chief Executive Officer Airbus. Page 1

Industry Update. ACI-NA Winter Board of Directors Meeting February 3, 2016 Orlando, FL

LAX Community Noise Roundtable. Aviation Noise News Update. January 14, 2015

AIR CANADA REPORTS THIRD QUARTER RESULTS

WEAK FOURTH QUARTER CAPS FULL-YEAR PROFIT AT $1.06 BILLION

Dubai Airshow 2013 Business Aviation Market Update

Mar-16. Apr-16. Travel is expected to grow over the coming 6 months; at a slower rate

2011 Annual Meeting of Shareholders

Hans-Peter Ring EADS Chief Financial Officer. Cowen Conference February 8 th 2012

AIR CANADA REPORTS 2010 THIRD QUARTER RESULTS; Operating Income improved $259 million or 381 per cent from previous year s quarter

Transcription:

2011 YEAR-END REVIEW AND FORECAST The U.S. aerospace industry booked a relatively strong performance in 2011, remaining one of the most significant contributors to the national economy. Despite persistently sluggish market conditions around the globe, annual sales are expected to top $218 billion in 2011, marking the eighth consecutive year of growth. The industry s robust workforce also points to the vital role played by aerospace in the U.S. economy. Directly and indirectly, aerospace employs more than two million Americans. Strong aircraft orders and the rollout of major new products have contributed greatly to the industry s performance. At year s end, annual sales are expected to be up across the board in 2011. Civil and military aircraft, missiles and the space sector are all expected to top their respective 2010 totals. Given that the demand for aftermarket products and services is closely tied to upstream market conditions, the U.S. aircraft maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) sector also experienced somewhat of a resurgence in 2011, capturing a significant share of the nearly $50 billion global MRO market. Absent a major economic downturn, the U.S. MRO market is expected to register a 3.8 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years.

2

Civil Aircraft After a disappointing 2010, the U.S. civil aircraft sector returned to a growth position. U.S. civil aircraft sales are expected to total $49.7 billion in 2011, a 3.2 percent annual increase. Looking forward, the sector is likely to grow at a CAGR of some 3.4 percent during 2011-2013. Orders for civil aircraft are expected to rise sharply in 2011, reaching nearly $107 billion, a gain of 23 percent. The amount is far below the recent high of $224 billion in 2007, but is well ahead of the 2009 low of $23 billion. Industry drivers in 2011 include several factors that have influenced the market for a number of years, such as the aging U.S. regional jet fleet and a growing demand for fuel-efficient aircraft that has been driven by persistently high and variable fuel prices. The introduction of new aircraft has also created demand in the commercial segment. The U.S. large commercial aircraft market continues to ramp up at a respectable pace, yet sagging airline demand in the U.S. and Europe means that manufacturers will necessarily depend more heavily on exports to Asia, the Mideast, and other fast-growth markets. The U.S. civil industry will be lifted as Boeing ramps up 787 and 747-8 production, now that the two new aircraft have entered into service over the past few months. The key market driver in 2012 will be the price of fuel. High fuel prices create demand for new fuel-efficient aircraft, while at the same time eroding airlines ability to purchase new planes. This situation places renewed emphasis on developing commercially viable alternative fuels, which could potentially dampen the volatility of fuel costs faced by operators while lessening the global airline industry s environmental impact. The U.S. is a leader in alternative aviation fuel research and development, and U.S. producers have successfully completed test flights using fuels from a variety of feedstocks and are moving toward commercial production. Aerospace Industry Sales 250 200 150 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 210.6 218.1 217.7 100 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(P) 2012(E) 3 50

The U.S. civil rotorcraft market is diverse, with the bulk of new deliveries coming from mature production lines. The market encompasses emergency medical service (EMS) providers, offshore oil and gas exploration, and law enforcement applications. Following two years of significant decreases in sales, U.S. civil helicopter shipments are expected to increase to 454 aircraft in 2011, representing an annual increase of 5.3 percent. This upward trajectory is expected to continue into 2012 as demand deferred during the economic downturn reaches the market. Military Aircraft The U.S. military aircraft sector expanded by nearly 6.7 percent over last year, with sales estimated at $66.51 billion. The Department of Defense ordered more F/A-18 E/F Hornets and V-22s for the Navy and Marine Corps. Future sales also look promising, as exemplified by the $35 billion contract awarded to Boeing to build 179 KC- 46A refueling tankers. While 2011 was a strong year for military aircraft, domestic purchases are expected to decline in the coming years due to federal deficit reduction measures. These measures are likely to become even more significant factors as much of the U.S. military aircraft fleet nears maximum service-life limits. Anecdotally, ground crews have pointed out that today s pilots are now flying the exact same equipment as did their fathers. The recent grounding of several combat wings due to equipment stress is impacting U.S. combat readiness. The current U.S. Air Force fleet, whose planes are on average more than 23 years old, is the oldest in USAF history. Many transport aircraft and aerial refueling tankers are more than 40 years old, and it is expected that some may reach the 70-80 year mark before they are finally retired. As the U.S. increasingly seeks foreign buyers of military aircraft, it faces competition from other nations that are targeting the same opportunities. A case in point is the Aerospace Industry Sales By Product Group KEY Related Products & Services Space Missiles Military Aircraft Civil Aircraft 250 200 150 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS $199.5 $208.9 $210.6 $218.1 $217.7 $30.0 $30.2 $43.2 $23.2 100 $54.7 $29.4 $29.7 $30.6 $45.0 $45.3 $46.4 $45.1 $24.2 $25.1 $25.6 $25.1 $58.9 $62.4 $66.5 $65.1 50 $48.2 $51.3 $48.2 $49.7 $51.7 4 2008 2009 2010 2011(P) 2012(E)

recent India fighter competition. That the U.S. entrants failed to win the competition is a sure sign of how effective competitors in this market can be. Trade two years. The increase is due primarily to strengthened civil exports, which are expected to grow by 14 percent in 2011, reaching nearly $77 billion. U.S. aerospace imports are also expected to increase in 2011, driven primarily by increased purchases of foreign aircraft engines and engine parts. Overall, aerospace-related imports are expected to reach $29.6 billion, an increase of 12 percent. The U.S. aerospace industry continued to show reasonable international strength in 2011 despite the lingering effects of the global economic downturn. In 2011, the industry contributed $87 billion in export sales to the domestic economy. The industry s positive trade balance of $57.4 billion places aerospace in the lead, representing the largest positive trade balance of any manufacturing industry. U.S. aerospace exports are expected to increase to nearly $90 billion in 2011, up 12 percent after falling for In recent years, Near- and Middle Eastern governments have steadily increased purchases of U.S. military aircraft. Most recently, the sale of 24 refurbished F16-C/ Ds to Indonesia, along with the possibility of other sales, came out in President Obama s announcement that the U.S. will expand its military ties in Southeast Asia. As tensions rise with Iran and Syria, the UAE has stepped up purchases to secure its borders and maintain the ability to deliver its recent $304 million purchase of bunker busting weapons in response to Iran s nuclear program. Additionally, Saudi Arabia bought 85 F-15E fighter jets valued at $29.4 billion and the Iraqi government has agreed to purchase 18 U.S. F-16 fighters, worth about $3 billion. Aerospace Foreign Trade 100 80 60 40 20 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS Imports Exports Surplus 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(P) 2007 PEAK 97.2 2007 PEAK 60.6 2011 EXPORTS 87.0 2011 SURPLUS 57.4 2011 IMPORTS 29.6 5

Space Budget cuts will continue to menace the U.S. space industrial base, and an anticipated increase in competition from Indian, Chinese and Russian space programs will exacerbate the situation. Likely impacting U.S. industry s competitive stance is the U.S. government s increasing dependence on commercial systems to enhance U.S. space programs and launch capabilities, fostering new opportunities for the private sector. This year has been a particularly challenging one for the U.S. space industry. Developments in 2011 that have directly impacted the industry include: retirement of the space shuttle, which caused the loss of thousands of high-tech industry jobs; the near cancellation of the James Webb Space Telescope; and reductions in NOAA polar orbiting weather satellites and national security space programs. Despite these roadblocks, there were some bright spots including an agreement on a way forward for an important new NASA exploration initiative, the Space Launch System, which will develop a new launch system to enable human exploration beyond Earth orbit. General Aviation As in 2010, 2011 proved to be a challenging year for general aviation. Lingering effects of the financial crisis of 2008 and the European banking crisis continue to Aerospace Shipments, Orders and Backlog 6 600 500 400 300 200 100 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1993 1994 1995 Backlog Orders Shipments 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2008 Peak 515.0 2007 Peak 316.4 BACKLOG 462.7 ORDERS 204.8 SHIPMENTS 184.2 2010 2011(P)

restrict financing for the sector. Further, several initiatives are under consideration that are tied to new taxes and increased regulations that may limit the sector s growth. However, bright spots do exist, including a strong demand for new equipment by regional airlines operating in developing airline service markets. Employment As private air travel becomes more commonplace, larger business jet aircraft are leading market sales within the sector, particularly in Southeast Asia. China represents another growing market, and it has been estimated that by the end of the decade the nation will account for 20 percent of global business jet deliveries, up from today s 7 percent. Light and medium business jets remain an area of concern, with a three-year downturn threatening to extend into 2012, and deliveries depressed for several key U.S. companies. Aerospace employment is likely to register a slight increase in 2011, as the hardest-hit sectors of the industry find firmer footing. Total year-end employment is expected to be 624,400, up from 624,000. According to a recent study by the U.S. Department of Commerce, aerospace supports more jobs through exports than any other industry. The U.S. aerospace industry directly employs about 500,000 workers in scientific and technical jobs across the nation and supports more than 700,000 additional jobs in related fields. 800 700 600 500 400 EMPLOYEES (THOUSANDS) Aerospace Employment KEY Search, Detection & Navigation Instruments Guided Missiles, Space Vehicles & Parts Aircraft, Engines and Parts 2011 Total: 624.4 141 71 300 200 412 100 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(P) 7

8

Summary and Outlook Looking forward to 2012, aspects for growth are positive in commercial aerospace and neutral in the defense sector. That said, both the commercial and military sectors remain vulnerable to numerous variables that are capable of overturning current expectations and trends. A mounting sense of urgency to address high levels of deficit spending by the U.S. is expected to induce cuts to the U.S. defense budget. However, rising commercial aircraft sales (up 7.5 percent year-over-year through September 2011) could offset these drags on the market and may spur the commercial aviation sector to increase capital spending on new equipment. Volatile fuel prices continue to spur world airlines to replace older, less fuel-efficient aircraft with newer models. This demand, combined with rapid growth in air travel in Asia and the Middle East, continues to feed a growing demand for new aircraft. Moreover, the global air traffic market is expected to increase annually at a rate of 4.9 percent over the next 20 years, considerably higher than the global GDP growth rate. Consequently, in order to keep pace with the growing demand for air travel, estimates predict that by the end of 2029, the world s airlines will take delivery of 29,000 commercial aircraft with a total value of $3.2 trillion. Order books at Boeing and Airbus contain six to seven years of commercial aircraft production at current levels. Both companies have announced significant production rate increases that began late last year and stretch through 2014. It is expected that the business jet market, which has been battered both by difficult market conditions and political headwinds, will improve modestly in 2012. The aftermarket parts and service business for business jets and large commercial airplanes is staging a solid recovery, driven by increased flight hours for both categories. As for the defense segment, both the FY2012 base and supplementary ( OCO ) defense budgets authorize funding for aerospace and defense procurement at increasing rates. In addition, the aging of conventional military equipment such as planes, ships and tanks necessitates equipment replacement and repair. However, the magnitude of cuts to global defense budgets is still uncertain as the U.S. Congress and national legislatures around the world attempt to reduce deficits and overall governmental spending. While the U.S. defense industry remains very concerned about potential budget cuts, 2011 deliveries reflect the strength of previous years budgets. While outlays are currently positive for military fixed-wing aircraft and rotorcraft programs, funding for new program starts is highly uncertain. Missile and munition demand also looks vulnerable, as weapons stockpiles are often cut first when combat operations and defense budgets trend downward. In space, the market continues on a reasonable plateau, driven by ongoing satellite replenishment and launch services demand. While cuts to NASA s FY2012 budget will have a negative impact, they were less severe than those advocated by some policymakers. The U.S. aerospace industry continues to provide significant contributions to the country s economy and provides capabilities vital for national security. With employees in every state of the union, it generates the highest positive trade balance of any U.S. manufacturing sector. This is particularly relevant given the nation s challenges of high unemployment, a stagnating economy and a crippling national deficit. AIA s 2011 Year-End Review and 2012 Forecast reports increases in almost every category from civil aviation to space. In the years following 2012 our industry will face significant challenges, particularly in the defense sector, as the government seeks solutions to an ongoing budget crisis. Our position has been firmly established we will continue to educate the public and elected officials on the need to maintain an aerospace industry that is Second to None in the world. 9

Table I Aerospace Industry Sales by Product Group Calendar Years 2001-2012 AIRCRAFT Total Year Sales Total Civil Military Missiles Space Related Products & Services Current Dollars (Billions) 2001 $151.63 $86.47 $51.26 $35.22 $10.39 $29.50 $25.27 2002 152.35 79.49 41.34 38.15 12.85 34.62 25.39 2003 146.03 72.84 32.44 40.40 13.49 35.86 23.84 2004 156.48 79.13 32.52 46.61 17.46 35.70 24.20 2005 167.13 86.66 37.16 49.50 18.44 36.66 25.36 2006 182.58 98.28 45.85 52.44 20.26 37.56 26.48 2007 196.53 105.60 52.55 53.05 21.98 39.90 29.06 2008 199.49 102.90 48.18 54.71 23.20 43.22 30.18 2009 208.87 110.18 51.30 58.88 24.22 45.04 29.44 2010 210.55 110.51 48.16 62.35 25.06 45.30 29.68 2011(P) 218.08 116.19 49.68 66.51 25.57 46.36 29.96 2012(E) 217.65 116.75 51.71 65.05 25.12 45.14 30.63 Constant Dollars a (Billions) 2001 $147.73 $84.25 $49.94 $34.31 $10.12 $28.74 $24.62 2002 145.98 76.16 39.61 36.55 12.31 33.18 24.33 2003 136.34 68.01 30.29 37.72 12.59 33.48 22.26 2004 141.76 71.68 29.46 42.22 15.81 32.34 21.93 2005 145.83 75.62 32.43 43.19 16.09 31.99 22.13 2006 153.78 82.78 38.62 44.16 17.06 31.63 22.30 2007 160.54 86.26 42.93 43.33 17.95 32.59 23.74 2008 157.13 81.04 37.95 43.09 18.28 34.04 23.77 2009 160.58 84.70 39.44 45.27 18.62 34.63 22.63 2010 159.91 83.93 36.58 47.35 19.03 34.41 22.54 2011(P) 162.57 86.62 37.04 49.58 19.06 34.56 22.33 2012(E) 159.59 85.61 37.91 47.69 18.42 33.10 22.46 Source: Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), based on company reports; The Budget of the United States Government, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), U.S. Department of Commerce, and Department of Defense. a. Based on AIA s aerospace composite price deflator, (2000=100). E. Estimate. P. Preliminary. 10

Aerospace Industry Sales by Customer Table II Year Total Sales AEROSPACE PRODUCTS AND SERVICES Total Department NASA of Defense & Other Agencies Other Customers Related Products & Services Current Dollars (Billions) 2001 $151.63 $126.36 $49.98 $14.48 $61.90 $25.27 2002 152.35 126.96 57.40 16.39 53.17 25.39 2003 146.03 122.19 64.16 16.52 41.51 23.84 2004 156.48 132.28 73.27 16.98 42.04 24.20 2005a 167.13 141.76 77.83 17.25 46.68 25.36 2006 182.58 156.10 79.78 17.22 59.10 26.48 2007 196.53 167.47 84.34 17.80 65.33 29.06 2008 199.49 169.32 89.23 19.51 60.58 30.18 2009 208.87 179.43 96.67 20.81 61.95 29.44 2010 210.55 180.87 101.45 21.10 58.33 29.68 2011(P) 218.08 188.12 107.64 21.17 59.30 29.96 2012(E) 217.65 187.02 105.38 20.13 61.51 30.63 Constant Dollars a (Billions) 2001 $147.73 $123.11 $48.69 $14.11 $60.31 $24.62 2002 145.98 121.65 55.00 15.70 50.95 24.33 2003 136.34 114.08 59.90 15.43 38.76 22.26 2004 141.76 119.84 66.37 15.38 38.08 21.93 2005 a 145.83 123.70 67.91 15.05 40.73 22.13 2006 153.78 131.48 67.19 14.51 49.78 22.30 2007 160.54 136.80 68.90 14.54 53.37 23.74 2008 157.13 133.36 70.28 15.36 47.72 23.77 2009 160.58 137.95 74.32 16.00 47.63 22.63 2010 159.91 137.37 77.05 16.02 44.30 22.54 2011(P) 162.57 140.24 80.25 15.78 44.21 22.33 2012(E) 159.59 137.13 77.27 14.76 45.10 22.46 Calendar Years 2001-2012 Source: Aerospace Industries Association (AIA), based on company reports; The Budget of the United States Government, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), U.S. Department of Commerce, and Department of Defense. a. Beginning in 2005, NASA sales were reported separately from other agencies. b. Based on AIA s aerospace composite price deflator, (2000=100). E. Estimate. P. Preliminary. 11

Table III As of End-of-Year 1992-2011 Shipments, Orders and Backlog: Aircraft & Parts and Search & Navigation Equipment Year Shipments Orders Backlog 1992 $137,114 $118,369 $220,233 1993 123,850 100,815 197,198 1994 112,511 98,621 183,308 1995 110,928 115,279 187,659 1996 110,840 134,142 210,961 1997 132,787 143,071 221,245 1998 150,077 138,407 209,575 1999 152,728 140,329 197,176 2000 144,740 165,994 218,430 2001 153,571 146,444 211,303 2002 140,889 132,271 202,685 2003 135,955 137,455 204,185 2004 145,305 152,437 211,317 2005 152,081 214,099 273,335 2006 165,652 248,546 356,229 2007 202,723 316,361 469,867 2008 211,943 257,096 515,020 2009 207,585 126,226 433,661 2010 187,909 196,324 442,076 2011(P) 184,158 204,809 462,727 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers Shipments, Inventories, and Orders and AIA estimates. Notes: Not seasonally adjusted; includes aircraft engine and parts manufacturing. Includes both Civil and Defense Data P. Preliminary. 12

U.S. Civil Transport Aircraft Backlog Table IV TOTAL BACKLOG: 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 a Number of Aircraft 3,427 3,714 3,375 3,443 3,520 Value (in millions) $270,728 $296,217 $263,129 $265,553 $282,881 Boeing: B-737 2,076 2,270 2,076 2,186 2,215 B-747 125 114 108 107 111 B-767 52 70 59 50 49 B-777 357 350 281 253 325 B-787 817 910 851 847 820 Foreign Order Backlog Percent of Total Backlog: Number of Aircraft 75.3% 77.8% 79.5% 77.8% 71.6% Value 78.8% 81.1% 82.9% 81.6% 76.7% Number of Aircraft 2,581 2,891 2,682 2,679 2,519 Value (in millions $213,418 $240,092 $218,208 $216,701 $217,018 Calendar Years 2007-2011 Boeing: B-737 1,493 1,703 1,605 1,643 1,460 B-747 101 97 94 95 100 B-767 24 42 34 30 30 B-777 284 271 230 221 266 B-787 679 778 719 690 663 Domestic Order Backlog Percent of Total Backlog: Number of Aircraft 24.7% 22.2% 20.5% 22.2% 28.4% Value 21.2% 18.9% 17.1% 18.4% 23.3% Number of Aircraft 846 823 693 764 1,001 Value (in millions) $57,310 $56,124 $44,921 $48,852 $65,863 Boeing: B-737 583 567 471 543 755 B-747 24 17 14 12 11 B-767 28 28 25 20 19 B-777 73 79 51 32 59 B-787 138 132 132 157 157 Source: Aerospace Industries Association, based on company reports. a. As of end of third quarter. 13

Table V Civil Aircraft Shipments Calendar Years 2001-2012 Year Number of Aircraft Shipped TOTAL 2001 3,575 526 415 2,634 2002 2,904 379 318 2,207 2003 2,935 281 517 2,137 2004 3,445 285 805 2,355 2005 4,094 290 947 2,857 2006 4,443 398 898 3,147 2007 4,729 441 1,009 3,279 2008 4,538 375 1,084 3,079 2009 2,630 481 564 1,585 2010 2,227 462 431 1,334 2011(P) 2,065 471 454 1,140 2012(E) 2,132 490 486 1,156 Value (millions of dollars) Transport Aircraft Helicopters General Aviation 2001 $43,043 $34,155 $247 $8,641 2002 35,450 27,574 157 7,719 2003 27,833 21,033 366 6,434 2004 27,815 20,484 515 6,816 2005 31,424 21,941 816 8,667 2006 37,085 25,875 843 10,367 2007 42,431 29,160 1,330 11,941 2008 38,910 24,076 1,486 13,348 2009 39,884 29,695 1,107 9,082 2010 36,217 27,350 992 7,875 2011(P) 37,211 28,783 972 7,456 2012(E) 39,576 30,862 1,043 7,670 Source: Aerospace Industries Association, based on company reports, data from the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) and AIA estimates E. Estimate. P. Preliminary. 14

U.S. Aerospace Balance of Trade Table VI BALANCE OF TRADE: 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(P) Current Dollars $60,614 $57,389 $56,034 $51,152 $57,410 Constant Dollars a 49,515 45,201 43,080 38,849 42,798 AEROSPACE EXPORTS: Current Dollars $97,224 $95,082 $81,166 $77,503 $86,982 Constant Dollars a 79,421 74,889 62,402 58,863 64,843 AEROSPACE IMPORTS: Current Dollars $36,610 $37,694 $25,132 $26,351 $29,573 Constant Dollars a 29,906 29,688 19,322 20,013 22,046 Source: Aerospace Industries Association, based on data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and AIA estimates. Note: Trade balances may not equal the difference between exports and imports due to rounding. Calendar Years 2007-2011 a. Based on AIA s aerospace composite price deflator, (2000=100). P. Preliminary. 15

Table VII U.S. Imports of Aerospace Products Calendar Years 2007-2011 (Millions of Dollars) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(P) TOTAL IMPORTS $36,610 $37,694 $25,132 $26,351 $29,573 Aircraft $13,296 $12,480 $9,299 $9,041 $9,091 Military 12.3 51.5 0.4 61.7 123.2 Civil 13,284 12,428 9,299 8,979 8,968 Transports 6,916 6,460 4,955 3,258 4,098 General Aviation 4,532 4,066 2,337 2,191 2,553 Helicopters 889 1,143 833 838 862 Other a 947 758 1,173 2,692 1,455 Aircraft Engines 3,880 4,328 3,752 3,799 4,358 Turbine 3,812 4,195 3,616 3,700 4,289 Piston 69 133 136 99 68 Aircraft and Engine Parts 18,528 19,989 11,383 12,498 14,919 Spacecraft, Missiles, Rockets, and Parts 905 896 698 1,013 1,205 Source: Aerospace Industries Association, based on data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and AIA estimates. Notes: Import data include non-military aircraft parts and aerospace products previously exported from the United States. Totals may not equal sum of terms due to rounding. a. Includes used aircraft, gliders, balloons and airships. P. Preliminary. 16

Exports of U.S. Aerospace Products Table VIII (Millions of Dollars) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(P) TOTAL EXPORTS $97,224 $95,082 $81,166 $77,503 $86,982 TOTAL CIVIL EXPORTS $83,979 $82,264 $70,500 $67,128 $76,689 Complete Aircraft 47,559 42,422 (D) (D) (D) Transports 40,297 33,326 General Aviation 3,911 4,818 Helicopters 1,117 948 Used Aircraft 2,197 3,284 Other Aircraft 37 46 Aircraft Engines 7,127 8,505 Turbine 6,953 8,334 Piston 174 171 Aircraft & Engine Parts, Including Spares 28,469 30,777 Calendar Years 2007-2011 Missiles, Rockets & Parts 13 25 Spacecraft, Satellites & Parts 811 535 TOTAL MILITARY EXPORTS $13,246 $12,819 $10,666 $10,375 $10,293 Complete Aircraft 4,174 4,520 2,325 1,742 1,622 Transports 789 1,548 276 140 457 Helicopters 791 300 520 832 537 Fighters & Bombers 2,303 1,930 1,208 432 459 Used Aircraft 119 590 93 43 20 Other Aircraft 172 152 228 294 149 Aircraft Engines 414 423 517 357 533 Turbine 277 344 381 271 435 Piston 137 80 137 86 98 Aircraft and Engine Parts, Including Spares 7,185 6,311 6,126 6,404 6,523 Missiles, Rockets & Parts 1,359 1,425 1,509 1,741 1,509 Spacecraft, Satellites & Parts 114 139 189 133 107 Source: Aerospace Industries Association, based on data from the U.S. Department of Commerce and AIA estimates. Note: Totals may not equal sum of terms due to rounding. P. Preliminary. D. Civil aerospace export data suppressed by U.S. Census Bureau beginning first quarter 2009. 17

Table IX Aerospace Related Employment Calendar Years 2000-2011 Period Total Employment ALL WORKERS (THOUSANDS) Total Aircraft Aircraft Engines & Parts Other Aircraft Parts & Equipment Guided Missiles, Space Vehicles & Parts Search, Detection & Navigation Instruments Production Workers 2000 666.1 438.4 242.7 98.1 97.6 78.4 149.4 304.1 2001 660.7 434.5 241.3 95.6 97.6 76.5 149.8 297.4 2002 618.4 396.7 220.2 87.9 88.6 73.6 148.1 263.3 2003 587.1 371.9 209.1 81.3 81.5 70.2 145.0 249.5 2004 592.0 369.9 207.2 79.2 83.5 71.6 150.5 244.2 2005 611.7 380.0 211.3 81.9 86.8 75.1 156.6 270.0 2006 631.8 398.5 221.7 84.4 92.4 75.5 157.7 326.9 2007 646.8 413.6 230.2 85.3 98.1 75.5 157.6 359.5 2008 659.8 428.9 237.4 87.2 104.3 77.6 153.3 303.0 2009 644.5 414.0 234.9 80.4 98.7 78.3 152.2 292.4 2010 624.0 402.5 228.5 76.4 97.6 74.7 146.8 276.4 2011(P) 624.4 412.0 234.6 76.3 101.1 71.3 141.0 282.1 1Q10 626.0 401.7 229.2 76.5 96.0 75.9 148.3 281.1 2Q10 623.4 400.2 226.6 76.5 97.1 75.5 147.7 275.9 3Q10 624.9 403.7 229.1 76.7 97.9 74.6 146.6 275.1 4Q10 621.5 404.2 229.1 75.8 99.3 72.6 144.7 273.6 1Q11 620.9 406.1 230.9 75.2 99.9 71.6 143.2 275.3 2Q11 623.0 411.1 234.1 76.1 100.9 71.1 140.9 280.4 3Q11 629.2 418.9 238.8 77.5 102.6 71.3 139.0 287.7 Source: Aerospace Industries Association, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). a. Starting in 2008, the production workers series does not include: Search, Detection, and Navigation Instruments. P. Preliminary. 18

Net Profit After Taxes Table X Aerospace Industry Profits As a Percent of: Profits as a Percent of: Year Dollars Sales Assets Equity Sales Assets Equity (In Millions) All Manufacturing Corporations 1992 (1,836) (1.4) (1.2) (5.2) 1.0 1.0 2.6 1993 4,621 3.6 3.5 13.2 2.8 2.9 8.1 1994 5,655 4.7 4.3 14.8 5.4 5.8 15.6 1995 4,633 3.8 3.5 11.1 5.7 6.2 16.2 1996 7,150 5.6 5.1 17.1 6.0 6.5 16.8 1997 7,221 5.2 4.8 17.3 6.2 6.6 16.6 1998 7,701 5.0 4.8 18.0 6.0 6.1 15.7 1999 10,214 b 6.5 6.2 21.8 6.2 6.1 16.5 2000 7,260 4.7 4.3 14.2 6.1 5.9 15.2 2001 6,565 3.9 3.6 11.6 0.8 0.8 1.9 2002 6,547 c 4.1 3.7 11.7 3.3 2.9 7.7 2003 7,243 4.2 3.3 12.3 5.4 4.7 12.2 2004 9,504 5.2 4.0 14.3 7.1 6.5 15.9 2005 12,573 6.4 4.7 16.8 7.4 6.9 16.4 2006 14,106 6.7 5.1 18.4 8.1 7.6 17.5 Calendar Years 1992-2011(P) 2007 18,715 8.2 6.7 24.5 7.3 6.7 31.2 2008 14,568 6.1 4.7 18.6 4.2 3.8 8.8 2009 16,344 6.8 5.2 26.6 5.7 4.3 10.4 2010 16,475 6.8 5.5 23.0 8.3 6.6 15.1 2011(P) 18,396 7.6 6.1 23.4 9.7 8.0 17.8 Source: Bureau of the Census, Quarterly Financial Report for Manufacturing, Mining, and Trade Corporations and AIA estimates. a. Reflects unusually large non-operating expenses totaling $3.4 billion and $8.7 billion in 1991 and 1992, respectively, due to restructuring charges and the implementation of a change in accounting for future retirement benefit costs. b. Includes non-operating income (less interest expense) totaling $4.4 billion. c. Includes non-operating expenses (less interest expense) totaling $3.5 billion. P. Preliminary. ( ) Denotes net loss. 19

1000 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 1700 Arlington, VA 22209-3928 703.358.1000