Canada Lodging Overview Randell A. Smith Chairman and Founder STR/ STR Global
www.hotelnewsnow.com Click on Industry Presentations
Agenda Global Hotel Trends Canada Hotel Trends Canada and the U.S. Scales and Markets Forecast
Global Regions Supply % change Europe YE 08 YE09 YE10 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% North America YE 08 YE09 YE10 2.4% 2.9% 1.9% Asia Pacific YE 08 YE09 YE10 3.4% 3.1% 2.8% Middle East & Africa YE 08 YE09 YE10 2.9% 4.2% 4.6%
Global Regions Construction / Active Pipeline as % of existing supply December 2010 11.2% 6.3% 5.7% 5.2% 4.1% 3.3% 1.4% 1.8% 0.8% 0.7% North America Europe Asia Pacific Middle East/Africa Central/South America In Construction Active Pipeline
Global Regions Demand % change Europe YE 08 YE09 YE10-3.1% -5.5% 6.4% North America YE 08 YE09 YE10-2.3% -6.3% 7.5% Asia Pacific YE 08 YE09 YE10-4.6% -2.9% 12.1% Middle East & Africa YE 08 YE09 YE10 3.4% -8.2% 5.5%
Global Regions ADR % change Europe ( ) YE08 YE09 YE10-1.6% -10.7% 4.4% North America ($) YE08 YE09 YE10 3.0% -8.8% 0.4% Asia Pacific ($) YE08 YE09 YE10 9.6% -14.6% 10.7% Middle East & Africa ($) YE08 YE09 YE10 15.6% -3.0% 3.3%
Global Regions RevPAR % change Europe ( ) YE 08 YE09 YE10-5.8% -16.6% 9.8% North America ($) YE 08 YE09 YE10-1.8% -16.9% 6.0% Asia Pacific ($) YE 08 YE09 YE10 1.1% -19.5% 20.6% Middle East & Africa ($) YE 08 YE09 YE10 16.2% -14.5% 4.1%
Canada Overview
Canada - Key Statistics Full Year 2010 % Change Hotels 7,800 Room Supply 157 Million 1.2% Room Demand 95 Million 4.7% Occupancy 60.9% 3.5% A.D.R. $129 2.0% RevPAR $78.48 5.6% Room Revenue $12.3 bn 6.8%
Total Canada Room Supply/Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 2007 to January 2011 6 4 Supply % Change Demand % Change 5.1% 2 0 1.1% -2-4 -6-8 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total Canada Monthly Room Demand (Millions) Seasonally Adj and 12 Month Average 2005 to January 2011 9.0 8.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 Seas Adj 12 Month 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Canada Monthly Room Demand (in Millions) and GDP (Billions Can $) 1998 to December 2010 GDP 14 Demand 10 13 12 GDP Demand 9 11 8 10 9 7 8 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 6
Total Canada Occupancy Seasonally Adjusted and 12 Month Average 2005 to January 2011 70 65 61.2% 60 61.0% 55 Seas Adj 12 Month 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Total Canada ADR Seasonally Adjusted 2005 to January 2011 150 140 130 $128 $127 120 Seas Adj 110 12 Month 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total Canada Occupancy/ADR Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 2007 to January 2011 10 5 4.0% 2.1% 0-5 -10 Occ % Chg ADR % Chg -7.7% -5.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total Canada RevPAR Seasonally Adjusted and 12 Month Average 2005 to January 2011 85 $78.59 75 Seas Adj 12 Month 65 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Canada and U.S.
Canada and U.S. Monthly Room Demand 2005 to January 2011 US / 10,000,000 CAN / 1,000,000 12 10 U.S. Canada 11 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 6
Total United States and Canada Room Demand Percent Change Twelve Month Moving Average 2007 to January 2011 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 U.S. Canada 5.1% -7.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 8.0%
Total Canada and U.S. Occupancy Seasonally Adjusted 2005 to January 2011 70 65 61.2% 60 58.3% 55 Canada U.S. 50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total Canada and U.S. Occupancy Differential Seasonally Adjusted 2005 to January 2011 10 5 0-5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total Canada and U.S. ADR Seasonally Adjusted 2005 to January 2011 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Canada U.S. $127 $97 80 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total Canada and U.S. ADR Differential Seasonally Adjusted 2005 to January 2011 50 40 30 20 10 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Canada Key Performance Indicators Percent Change Twelve Months Ending December 2010 10 5 0 1.4 1.2 4.7 3.5 2.0 5.6-5 -10-6.4-7.7-4.9-15 2009 2010-12.2-20 Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR
Canada Key Performance Indicators Percent Change January YTD 2011 6 4 3.6 2.7 2.7 2 0 1.5 0.9 0.0-2 -4-2.1-3.5-2.3-6 2010 2011-5.7-8 Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR
Canada Segments and Markets
From Here On In Luxury AKA Andaz Colony Conrad Doyle Collection Edition Fairmont Firmdale Four Seasons Grand Hyatt Hotel Monaco Hotel Palomar InterContinental Jumeirah JW Marriott Langham Loews Luxury Collection Mandarin Oriental Mokara Park Hyatt Preferred Ritz-Carlton RockResorts Rosewood Sofitel St Regis Taj The Peninsula The Prince The Tides Trump International Collection Viceroy W Hotel Waldorf=Astoria Upper Upscale Affinia Autograph Collection Camino Real Club Quarters Dolce Doral Embassy Suites Gaylord Hard Rock Helmsley Hotel Hilton Hyatt Joie De Vivre Kimpton Le Meridien Marriott Marriott Conference Center Marriott Executive Apartments Millennium New Otani Nikko Omni Pan Pacific Red Carnation Renaissance Sheraton Hotel Starhotels Swissotel Westin Wyndham Upscale Adam`s Mark Miyako aloft Hotel Novotel Amerisuites NYLO Hotel Ascend O'Callaghan Aston Hotel Outrigger Caesars Entertainment Park Plaza Cambria Suites Prince Hotel Canad Inn Celebrity Resorts Radisson Club Med Residence Inn Coast Hotel Room Mate Courtyard Sonesta Hotel Crowne Plaza Springhill Suites Doubletree Staybridge Suites element Woodfin Hotel Fitzpatrick Hotel Four Points Great Wolf Lodge Hilton Garden Inn Homewood Suites Hotel Indigo Hotel Sierra Hyatt Place Hyatt Summerfield Suites Jolly Little America Melia
Upper Midscale 3 Palms Ayres BEST WESTERN PLUS BEST WESTERN PREMIER Chase Suites Clarion Comfort Inn Comfort Suites Doubletree Club Drury Inn Drury Inn & Suites Drury Plaza Hotel Drury Suites Fairfield Inn Golden Tulip Hampton Inn Hampton Inn Suites Holiday Inn Holiday Inn Express Holiday Inn Select Home2 Suites Isle of Capri Key West Inns & Suites Lexington Ohana Park Inn Phoenix Inn Ramada Plaza Scanticon Silver Cloud Sunspree Resorts TownePlace Suites Westmark Wyndham Garden Hotel Xanterra Midscale America`s Best Suites AmericInn Baymont Inns & Suites BEST WESTERN Cabot Lodge Candlewood Suites ClubHouse Country Inn & Suites Crossings by GrandStay Crystal Inn Drury Lodge GrandStay Residential Suites GuestHouse Inn Hawthorn Suites by Wyndham Heartland Inn Howard Johnson InnSuites Hotel Lakeview La Quinta Inn La Quinta Inn & Suites Lees Inn Of America Mainstay Suites Quality Inn (and Quality Suites) Ramada (and Ramada Limited) Red Lion Rode Inn Settle Inn Shilo Inn Signature Inn Sleep Inn Vagabond Inn Vista Wingate By Wyndham Economy 1st Interstate Inn Affordable Suites America`s Best Inn Americas Best Value Inn Budget Host Budget Suites of America Budgetel Country Hearth Inn Crestwood Suites Crossland Suites Days Inn Downtowner Inn Econo Lodge Extended Stay America Extended Stay Deluxe E-Z 8 Family Inn Good Nite Inn Great Western Homegate Homestead Home-Towne Suites Howard Johnson Express Inns of America InTown Suites Jameson Inn Key West Inn Knights Inn Master Hosts Inns Masters Inn Microtel Inn Motel 6 National 9 Passport Inn Pear Tree Inn Red Carpet Inn Red Roof Inn Roadstar Inn Rodeway Inn Savannah Suites Scottish Inn Select Inn Shoney`s Inn Studio 6 Studio Plus Suburban Extended Stay Sun Suites Super 8 Thriftlodge Travelodge Value Place Wellesley Inn
Chain Scale ADR January 2011 YTD 250 200 $201 $159 150 100 $123 $116 $105 $91 50 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Chain Scale Occupancy Percent Twelve Months Ended December 2011 75 70 65 60 55 65.4 69.0 65.0 60.9 55.5 52.5 50 45 40 35 30 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Chain Scales Supply / Demand Percent Change December YTD 2010 15 10 7.0 8.2 9.6 7.1 Supply Demand 5 2.3 2.6 4.4 3.7 2.9 4.0 0 0.0-5 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale -2.1 Economy
Chain Scales Occupancy / ADR Percent Change December YTD 2010 10 5 0 4.5 5.2 5.5 3.2 5.0 0.2 3.3 0.8 1.1 0.8 2.1-5 Occupancy ADR Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale -0.9 Economy
Chain Scales RevPAR / Room Revenue Percent Change December 2010 YTD 15 10 9.9 12.5 8.8 11.7 9.8 8.0 RevPAR Room Revenue 5 5.2 4.1 4.8 1.9 1.2 0-0.9-5 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Chain Scales Supply / Demand Percent Change January YTD 2011 15 10 5 2.6 3.7 2.1 6.5 8.3 10.8 Supply Demand 5.5 0-5 -2.1-2.1-3.0-4.8-1.7-10 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Chain Scales Occupancy / ADR Percent Change January 2011 YTD 10 Occupancy ADR 7.3 5 4.4 0 1.1 1.3 0.1 2.7 0.6 2.3 1.9-0.2-1.7-1.9-5 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
Total Canada and U.S. Luxury Occupancy Seasonally Adjusted 2005 to January 2011 75 70 65 60 Canada U.S. 55 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total Canada and U.S. Luxury ADR Seasonally Adjusted 2005 to January 2011 300 250 200 Canada U.S. 150 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total Canada and U.S. Upper Upscale Occupancy Seasonally Adjusted 2005 to January 2011 75 70 65 60 Canada U.S. 55 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total Canada and U.S. Upper Upscale ADR Seasonally Adjusted 2005 to January 2011 190 170 Canada U.S. 150 130 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Selected Canadian Cities Occupancy %Year End 2010 Calgary, AB Edmonton, AB Halifax, NS Montreal Ottawa Quebec City Regina, SK Saskatoon, SK Toronto Vancouver Victoria, BC Winnipeg, MB 58.6 64.6 61.7 64.4 62.9 63.8 68.9 67.5 68.3 67.7 67.3 75.2 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0
Selected Canadian Cities ADR Year End 2010 Calgary, AB Edmonton, AB Halifax, NS Montreal Ottawa Quebec City Regina, SK Saskatoon, SK Toronto Vancouver Victoria, BC Winnipeg, MB 123.5 122.6 119.5 118.6 114.0 145.0 132.4 132.7 137.4 133.3 134.8 151.8 $80 $90 $100 $110 $120 $130 $140 $150 $160
Selected Canadian Cities RevPAR Year End 2010 Calgary, AB Edmonton, AB Halifax, NS Montreal Ottawa Quebec City Regina, SK Saskatoon, SK Toronto Vancouver Victoria, BC Winnipeg, MB 69 76 79 83 81 77 88 91 92 94 100 103 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 $110
Toronto and New York Occupancy Seasonally Adjusted 2005 to January 2011 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 Toronto New York 55 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Toronto and New York ADR Seasonally Adjusted 2005 to January 2011 280 Toronto New York 240 200 160 120 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Forecasts
Canada Key Performance Indicator Outlook Scenario (% change vs. Prior Year) 2011P Hotel Industry Performance Scenarios 2011 Low Growth Forecast High Growth Supply 1.2 0.9 0.8 Demand 2.5 2.8 3.1 Occupancy 1.1 1.8 2.6 ADR 3.7 3.5 3.1 RevPAR 4.8 5.3 5.7
Canada Occupancy Percent 2005 2011P 70 65 63.5 64.6 65.1 63.8 60.9 62.0 60 58.9 55 50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011P
Canada Average Daily Rate (In Dollars) 2005 2011P $132.75 $133.33 $125 $124.47 $128.76 $126.29 $128.82 $119.83 $100 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011P
www.hotelnewsnow.com
Takeaways Global Recovery Sustained Demand Increases Supply Pipeline Not a Factor Yield Management Discipline (???)