DELOITTE 12 November 2008 A Good Old Fashioned Christmas Planned by Thrifty Yorkshire Folk With Over Indulgence Off The Agenda Supermarkets set to Benefit as Staying in Becomes the new Going Out Christmas in Yorkshire has not been cancelled despite deepening economic gloom but consumers will be drastically reining in their socialising budget, according to the annual Christmas Retail Survey published today by business advisory firm Deloitte. A predicted 30 per cent decline in socialising spend to an average 103 makes Yorkshire and the North East the lowest spending region in the UK on going out this Christmas. The lavish partying has stopped, said Nicola Frampton, retail director at Deloitte and based in Leeds. It s all about in-tertainment this year, staying in is the new going out.
So what will we all be doing? Playing our new computer games this year s number one wish list for Christmas in our region. Everyone wants to see smiles on their kids faces this Christmas morning and the big ticket presents are still high on the list of planned spending but the Christmas stockings may not be quite so well filled. While overall spending per person for Yorkshire and the North East this Christmas period is anticipated to be 620 compared with 730 last year, a 15 per cent drop, the good news is that consumers are planning a good old fashioned Yuletide, focused around friends, family and tradition, said Mrs Frampton. She added that while the predicted downturn in spending per person in the region is anticipated to be 5 per cent less than the national average there are lots of ways for savvy retailers to respond to the predicted downturns. Price is back on the agenda, said Mrs Frampton. Discount and sales promotions will win customers this year according to findings that 58 per cent of consumers in Yorkshire and the North East will take advantage of discount and sales this Christmas more than in the past. Supermarkets and local shops should be the winners this year as 47 per cent of people in the region compared with 48 per cent of the total population agree that due to high cost of fuel, they will be shopping more centrally this Christmas than in the past. However, consumer loyalty to localness has its limits. Only 32 per cent of people in the region agree that they will buy more from local producers and local stores this year compared with 38 per cent for the total population. They re happy to be local and green but wallets are driving their choices this year so the price has got to be right. Facts about the region: Predicted spend per person on gifts is 367 compared with 415 in 2007 56 per cent of people save for Christmas. 81 per cent are intending to use the supermarket for Christmas food shopping compared with 79 per cent of the total population. Only 20 per cent agree they will buy more food and drink than they need compared with 29 per cent of the total population. People in the region are much less likely to use the internet for some of their gift purchases, 41 per cent compared with the 50 per cent national average. Whilst 24 per cent of UK consumers plan to spend less this year, one segment of the population is bucking the trend. Some 36 per cent of 16-24 year olds intend to spend more and 49 per cent say they are going to have a good time at Christmas and worry about the cost later, compared with 23 per cent of 25-55+ year olds. They are also the most optimistic about the economy.
This age group have grown up in an affluent society with technology products and designer wear, are comfortable with debt and have never been in a recession, said Mrs Frampton. In spite of the current economic turmoil, 57 per cent of UK consumers say they intend to spend the same this Christmas as they did last year while 24 per cent of respondents say they will spend less and 19 per cent say they will spend more. For many people in the UK, this year will be Christmas as usual. Although this Christmas may be one of the toughest in decades, retailers have been toughing it out for most of the year, said Mrs Frampton. We think the talk of Christmas being cancelled is overplayed. Whilst total planned spend including socialising may be down, the majority of consumers intend to spend the same as last year. Retailers will need to understand their consumers better than ever and offer relevant products to take a share of the Christmas wallet. On average, consumers are planning to spend 655 on gifts, socialising and food and drink this year. This is 7 per cent less than last year and when compared to the 7 per cent growth the year before could be interpreted as a 14% drop in confidence. Richard Hyman, strategic adviser to the retail practice at Deloitte, said: These figures provide a very useful barometer for consumer confidence this Christmas. However, it is unlikely that actual retail sales will fall significantly. Broadly speaking, we believe sales will be flat this Christmas with a slight fall possible. Consumers need certainty to have the confidence to spend and retailers will be hopeful that last week s interest rate cuts feed directly into their disposable income. According to the survey both retailers and consumers think 2009 will be tough. 83 per cent of retailers and 64 per cent of consumers believe economic conditions in the UK will deteriorate. Mr Hyman added: What is clear is that 2009 is going to an extremely difficult year. It is possible we may see negative sales growth and this would be too much for some companies. Casualties are likely and these may begin with suppliers to retailers. Photography: Nicola Frampton, of business advisory firm Deloitte, enjoying some Christmas shopping in a Harrogate supermarket. Average expected gift spend by region for 2004-2008 Scotland 345 356 403 496 407 North East 316 322 440 446 371 North West 382 314 393 381 350 Yorkshire 372 276 330 395 365
Midlands 312 329 340 368 364 Wales 355 359 443 453 436 South East 280 266 364 372 312 London 279 277 343 350 387 South West 309 304 311 312 308 Northern Ireland N/A N/A 348 450 379 UK 322 310 378 385 359 Average expected food and drink spend by region for 2004-2008 Scotland 160 163 166 204 165 North East 128 178 145 197 167 North West 174 172 186 173 156 Yorkshire 181 132 129 148 138 Midlands 179 162 163 176 172 Wales 167 158 170 166 172 South East 116 119 179 174 176 London 159 174 167 170 178 South West 107 141 169 190 202 Northern Ireland N/A N/A 150 166 170 UK 151 161 163 178 170 Average spend on socialising by region for 2004-2008 Scotland 138 167 149 148 137 North East 118 184 100 146 90
North West 143 143 131 178 112 Yorkshire 143 128 76 150 112 Midlands 150 137 162 136 161 Wales 125 132 118 105 99 South East 124 126 122 131 127 London 145 162 115 156 158 South West 111 146 120 140 97 Northern Ireland N/A N/A 129 138 155 UK 130 144 121 143 126 Ends About this survey The survey findings were based on consumer data obtained by market research undertaken by TNS on behalf of Deloitte. Over 1000 adults aged 16+ were interviewed between August 29th and August 31st 2008 and again between October 31st and November 2nd. The results of the second survey showed no material change to the original results. The respondents were selected according to a quota sample designed to be representative of all UK adults. Replies were also received from questionnaires sent out to over 350 of the United Kingdom s retailers. The retailers were from a cross-section of the industry.