Welcome to Master Builders SA s State Budget Breakfast July 8, 2016
Ian Markos Chief Executive Officer, Master Builders SA
Associate Professor Michael O Neil Executive Director, South Australian Centre for Economic Studies, University of Adelaide
Master Builders SA Budget Breakfast 2016 Associate Professor Michael O Neil Executive Director, SACES 8 July 2016
Growth in Key Components of Australian GDP Mar 2015 to Mar 2016 Annual Percentage Change Contribution to GDP Growth Final Consumption Expenditure 3.1 2.3 General Government 3.2 0.6 Households 3.1 1.7 Gross Fixed Capital Formation -5.9-1.5 Private -6.8-1.4 Dwelling 8.3 0.4 Business Investment -12.6-1.9 Public -1.4-0.1 Domestic Final Demand 0.8 0.8 Exports of Goods and Services 7.6 1.7 Imports of Goods and Services -1.0 0.2 Gross Domestic Product 3.2 3.2 Real Gross Domestic Income 0.6 n.a. ABS data
Per cent Annual Growth in Australian Export Volumes Seas. Adj. 20 15 10 Goods Services 5 0-5 -10 Mar05 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Quarter ended ABS data
Per Cent Annual Growth in Australian Export Values Seas. Adj. 60 50 40 Goods 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 Services -40 Mar05 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Quarter ended ABS data
Index Terms of Trade 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Mar96 Mar98 Mar00 Mar02 Mar04 Mar06 Mar08 Mar10 Mar12 Mar14 Mar16 Month ABS data
$ billion Australian Private New Capital Expenditure by Industry 25 Mining 20 15 Other Selected Industries 10 5 Manufacturing 0 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Quarter ABS data
$ billion Actual and Expected Private New Capital Expenditure, Australia 180 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Mining Manufacturing Other selected industries Total ABS data
Ratio Australian Household Saving Ratio 12 10 8 6 4 2 0-2 Mar96 Mar98 Mar00 Mar02 Mar04 Mar06 Mar08 Mar10 Mar12 Mar14 Mar16 Quarter ABS data
South Australia: General Economic Climate
Expenditure on South Australia s State Final Demand Final Consumption Expenditure Mar 2015 to Mar 2016 Annual Percentage Change Contribution to GSP Growth General Government 3.7 0.7 Households 2.6 1.5 Gross Fixed Capital Formation Private -8.0-1.5 Dwellings -2.8-0.1 Business Investment -10.5-1.3 Public 5.1 0.2 State Final Demand 1.0 1.0 ABS data
Australia, $ billion South Australia, $ billion Private Sector Business Investment 70 7 60 50 Australia 6 5 40 30 South Australia 4 3 20 2 10 1 0 0 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Quarter ABS data
Per cent Growth in Selected Real Domestic Demand Components 25 20 15 10 Private Business Investment Household Consumption Expenditure 5 0-5 -10 Total Private Dwellings Investment -15 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Year Ended (Quarter) ABS data
$ billion Value of South Australian Building Approvals 0.6 0.5 0.4 Total Building 0.3 0.2 New Residential Building 0.1 Residential Alterations/Additions Non-Residential Building 0.0 Apr06 Apr07 Apr08 Apr09 Apr10 Apr11 Apr12 Apr13 Apr14 Apr15 Apr16 Month ABS data
$ billion Preliminary Real Construction Work Done, South Australia 3.5 3.0 Total Construction 2.5 2.0 1.5 Engineering Construction 1.0 Residential Building 0.5 Non-Residential Building 0.0 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Quarter ABS data
Per cent Annual Growth Real Goods & Services Exports, SA 30 25 20 Services 15 10 5 Goods 0-5 -10 Sep12 Mar13 Sep13 Mar14 Sep14 Mar15 Sep15 Mar16 Quarter ended ABS data
Index Established House Prices 170 150 130 Brisbane Sydney 110 Perth 90 70 Melbourne Adelaide 50 Mar06 Mar07 Mar08 Mar09 Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13 Mar14 Mar15 Mar16 Quarter ABS data
Index Index of Employment Levels 130 125 WA 120 115 QLD VIC 110 SA NSW 105 100 TAS 95 90 May06 May07 May08 May09 May10 May11 May12 May13 May14 May15 May16 Month ABS data
'000 Persons South Australian Employment Levels 830 820 Seasonally Adjusted 810 800 790 Trend 780 770 May11 May12 May13 May14 May15 May16 Month ABS data
Per cent South Australian Employment Growth 6 4 2 0-2 Total employment -4 Full-time employment -6 May06 May07 May08 May09 May10 May11 May12 May13 May14 May15 May16 Year Ended (Month) ABS data
Population and Growth (1981/82 to 2013/14) South Australian Growth 26.6 per cent to 1.679m; Victoria 46.0 per cent; Australia 54.7 per cent; CAGR South Australia 0.74 per cent; Victoria 1.19 per cent; Australia 1.37 per cent
Share of Population (1981/82 to 2013/14) Age South Australia 1981/82 (%) South Australia 2013/14 (%) 0-14 23.3 17.6 15-19 8.6 6.2 20-24 8.2 6.8 50-64 15.2 19.3 65 + 10.8 17.1 25,000 less young people aged under 24 years than in 1981/82.
Per cent Employment to Population Ratio 64.0 62.0 60.0 Victoria Australia 58.0 South Australia 56.0 54.0 52.0
Comparison of dependency ratios: 1981/82 and 2013/14 Dependency ratio for >65 Dependency ratio for 0-14 and >65 years 1981/82 2013/14 1981/82 2013/14 South Australia 16.3 26.1 51.6 53.2 Victoria 15.4 22.2 52.7 49.5 Australia 15.1 22.2 52.8 50.5
Budget 2015/16 (Foundation) TAX REFORM: Abolish transfers on non-quotable market securities; Stamp duty on non-residential real property; Abolished River Murray Levy; Extended small business payroll tax rebate. WORKCOVER: Estimated reduction in costs to business of $180m; Average premiums to decline to 1.95 per cent. STAMP DUTY (off the plan apartments): $15,500 stamp duty concession (end June 2017); Retention of (hew homes) $15,000 first home owners grant. PLANNING REFORMS: To reduce delays.
Known (2016/17) Increase in ESL on land, property, motor vehicles ($292m 2016/17); Increase in waste collection (raise $64m); Extend small business payroll tax rebate (<$1.2m); $55m for North Terrace tram extension; Southern Expressway and Darlington Interchange; New gambling tax on sports betting ($9.2m); Whyalla rescue package ($50m); Upgrade of Her Majesty s Theatre; Increase in number of prison beds ($56m).
Talking Points 2016/17 Budget of 7 July 2016 TO BE DISCUSSED
Ian Markos Chief Executive Officer, Master Builders SA
Daniel Wills State Political Editor, The Advertiser
Ian Markos Chief Executive Officer, Master Builders SA
Panel Discussion Associate Professor Michael O Neil, South Australian Centre for Economic Studies Daniel Wills, The Advertiser Russell Emmerson, Master Builders SA
Ian Markos Chief Executive Officer, Master Builders SA
Thank you for attending Master Builders SA s State Budget Breakfast July 8, 2016