University of South Wales Pontypridd CF37 1DL. Tel / Ffôn: / E-bost: Title

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1 Davies Commission Submission (Long Term Options) A submission for WESTERN GATEWAY July 2013

2 Title Davies Commission Submission 19 th July Submission prepared for Western Gateway Lead Author Martin Evans Date Created 29/04/2013 Last Edited 19/07/2013 Version Final University of South Wales Pontypridd CF37 1DL Tel / Ffôn: / E-bost: martin.evans@southwales.ac.uk

3 INTRODUCTION Background Western Gateway is responding to the Davies Commission, looking at the potential of expansion of Cardiff Airport to address hub capacity in the UK in the long term. The key features of the proposals are: To link Cardiff/Cardiff Airport via a new HS3 to London and /or Heathrow To significantly upgrade access infrastructure at Cardiff Airport To provide high quality road and rail links to the regional networks in South Wales and South West England. To lengthen the runway at Cardiff Airport to enable wide bodied aircraft to operate without range restrictions. To provide airport terminal accommodation for the increased passenger numbers. Introduction This submission aims to address how the growth in air transport in the UK can be accommodated where the main hub airport is constrained and cannot be expanded for very sound environmental reasons but where closure and relocation would have damaging impacts upon employment and connectivity in west London. Western Gateway proposes that future growth in air transport should be accommodated at a triangular network of airports including Heathrow, Birmingham and Cardiff. Western Gateway believes that Heathrow Airport needs to continue to grow as two runway airport but be complemented by capacity that already exists elsewhere. This will allow connectivity, employment and prosperity to be dispersed to other parts of the UK instead of being concentrated in the south east of England. Investment away from the south east of England will help to rebalance the UK economy. The network of airports will need to be accessible by high speed rail so that as well as providing a much higher level of air transport provision in local markets, the airports will be accessible to the London market where a high proportion of passengers already use public transport to access Heathrow. The building of the High Speed 3 (HS3) rail line enhances the Western Gateway project by bringing London into the catchment area. Western Gateway is not dependent on HS3, however the potential benefits are not as great if HS3 is not built or building is delayed. Western Gateway is proposing a lower cost option which will take a rail line into the airport from the enhanced Great Western Mail Line which is due to be electrified by Western Gateway supports the building of High Speed rail lines but acknowledges that all the benefits from joining up airports by rail will not be available if the high speed network is to be built on an incremental basis. Western Gateway suggests that the planning and building of HS3 should take place at the same time as HS2 if no new runways are to be built in the south east. HS3 will also provide high speed rail between Cardiff, Bristol and London. 1

4 STRATEGIC FIT Airport capacity distributed across the south of the UK would help to rebalance the economy, would be better for the environment and would take noise nuisance away from London as well as reducing congestion in south east airspace. Airport Strategy National Context The UK has only one airport, Heathrow, that operates effectively as a hub. However due to a lack of capacity, Heathrow cannot fulfil a role as the hub airport for the whole of the UK. Large parts of the south of the UK can only access Heathrow by surface and the impediment of those surface journeys leaves regional economies uncompetitive. Maintaining capacity in the UK would appear to come down to four options: 1. Build a third and a fourth runway at Heathrow Whilst this would provide sufficient capacity to allow all parts of the UK to be connected by air to Heathrow, quite simply Heathrow is in the wrong place for expansion. Even if it becomes the preferred option, the political difficulties of expanding an airport that blights the lives of so many people would appear to be insurmountable. 2. Close Heathrow and build an airport on a new site This has been the traditional option for cities when the main airport is located on a site that has become constrained. However it could be argued that in the case of Heathrow the decision has been left too long to allow the airport to be moved to a site that is near enough to avoid disruption for thousands of airport workers and the many businesses that are located on the west side of London to be near to Heathrow. 3. Plan for a dispersed aviation policy that makes best use of other runways in the UK whilst maintaining Heathrow as a two runway airport. 4. Do nothing and have a constrained Heathrow with air traffic dispersed to other airports because there is nowhere else for it to go. Given the difficulties that successive governments have had in either building a new runway at Heathrow or a new airport in the London area it would seem sensible to now consider a dispersed aviation policy that makes best use of the runways that we have available. If building new runways in the south east remains politically unacceptable then a dispersed aviation policy will come about anyway because there will be nowhere else to accommodate the growth in air traffic. There is an opportunity to plan now for a dispersed policy instead of having it forced on us by a lack of capacity. 2

5 Western Gateway Strategy Developing an international hub Western Gateway airport would necessitate a national strategy to relocate aircraft movements away from the congested south-east airports. As part of a co-ordinated national strategy, a UK-West internationallyconnected airport is proposed, located in the South Wales / South West area. A successful and viable operation would require the Western Gateway airport to operate effectively as a UK- West long-haul and international hub airport operating as a regional airport, but also, crucially, able to attract passengers from London and the South East of England. An outline Airport Strategy involving establishment of a Western Gateway airport would consist of the following elements: Designate Focal Airports for example London West (Heathrow), London South (Gatwick), London North (Stansted), Midlands (Birmingham), West (Cardiff), North West (Manchester), North East (Newcastle), Scotland (Edinburgh/Glasgow) Connect these airports by High Speed Rail, or enhanced speed rail connections Integrated Air/Rail ticketing at key mainline rail stations Facilities for Check-in/ Baggage Drop-off at Rail Hubs on the High Speed rail network. Provide smartphone and smart technology assistance for all activities associated with check-in and baggage drop For the above Strategy, the Western Gateway Airport is proposed to be located at the current Cardiff Airport. In practice, a typical journey for an air passenger would involve travel to a new RailAir hub on a High Speed rail line, check-in and baggage drop at the RailAir hub, and then onward (as a checked- in passenger) to, for example, Heathrow, Birmingham or Cardiff depending on what suits their travel needs. Types of air journey to be transferred to Western Gateway There are a number of types of air passenger journeys which could potentially be transferred to a Western Gateway airport. The most significant potential sources of passenger attraction through Western Gateway are: Relocated Intra-terminal Interlining journeys Cardiff-Heathrow Interlining journeys Transfer of Primary Air Journeys 3

6 In respect of intra-terminal interlining (hub) journeys, it is relevant that approximately 30% of passenger throughput at Heathrow is made up of crossterminal interlining ; that is, passengers who arrive and leave the airport by air (as part of a through journey). Provision of upgraded airport facilities at Cardiff Airport / Western Gateway could allow transfer of a proportion of aircraft movements to Cardiff. Alleviation of pressure at south-east airports could be assisted by providing the ability for passengers to interline between Cardiff and Heathrow. This would require a high-speed rail line between Cardiff Airport and Heathrow. Baggage transfer systems will also need to be incorporated in the transfer process. Provision of high quality and fast rail connections to Western Gateway will significantly increase the catchment for rail-based travel to Cardiff Airport, and thus increase the ability of the airport to attract passenger and airlines. The Role of High Speed Rail Current High Speed Rail Proposals High Speed Rail 2 (HS2), which will link London to Birmingham by 2026, and is due to begin construction in Connections to Manchester and Leeds are planned to be completed by 2032.The high speed rail network (for 2032) is shown diagrammatically below. 4

7 Source: Western Gateway interpretation Operational Model for Rail Access to Western Gateway The operational model for High Speed Rail access to a Western Gateway international airport at Cardiff is proposed as follows: High speed passenger services serving stations at Cardiff Airport Cardiff Bristol - Old Oak Common (West London) London A non-stopping high speed terminal connector service between Cardiff Airport and Heathrow Airport, carrying interlining air passengers Route alignment for High Speed Rail from London to the South-West and Wales has not been investigated; however, it is envisaged that a proposed HS3 would broadly follow the existing Great Western Railway (GWR) alignment. In respect of connections to Heathrow, the High Speed Rail route alignment would either be: 1. via Heathrow such that some direct Airport-to-Airport services could stop there, with Cardiff Bristol London services passing through without stopping, or 2. an HS3 mainline route aligned in an east-west direction to the north of Heathrow, with a Heathrow spur from HS3 (west), and with Heathrow connections to the West provided via the Crossrail alignment. 5

8 The HS3 route is shown diagrammatically below. Meeting Passenger Demand Existing Air Passenger Demand Current (2011) air passenger demand at airports in London and south-west England and South Wales are shown on the diagram. Heathrow is the busiest airport with 70 million passengers each per annum. For all the main London airports, the total demand is over 130 mppa. The opportunity therefore exists to attract a proportion of this demand by introducing fast and frequent rail services to a major UK-West international airport located at Cardiff. 6

9 Source: UK Airport Statistics by Civil Aviation Authority Future Air Passenger Demand The UK government has investigated future air travel demand, and growth in passenger numbers is envisaged as set out in Table 1. For Cardiff Airport, the government forecast indicates a potential future passenger demand of nearly 8mppa (in 2050), based on growth in trips with regional origins / destinations. There is thus clearly potential for growth of passenger usage at Cardiff Airport, and introducing major accessibility improvements would enable the airport to achieve this forecast demand. 7

10 Table 1 Terminal Passenger Demand Forecast (mppa) and Passenger Demand / Capacity (%) Airport Heathrow 69.4 (77%) Gatwick 33.6 (84%) Stansted 18.0 (60%) Luton 9.5 (76%) Birmingham 8.6 (48%) Bristol 5.8 (58%) Cardiff 1.2 (40%) Manchester 18.8 (75%) London airports (84%) 37.3 (93%) 25.4 (85%) 13.8 (115%) Other airports (examples) 11.8 (66%) 6.8 (68%) 0.9 (30%) 22.1 (88%) 81.8 (91%) 40.6 (90%) 35.7 (102%) 18.5 (103%) 16.7 (45%) 9.7 (81%) 1.1 (14%) 28.1 (74%) 86.9 (97%) 42.6 (95%) 36.0 (103%) 18.6 (103%) 28.2 (76%) 12.3 (103%) 1.7 (21%) 39.0 (103%) Source: Extracts from Department for Transport UK Aviation Forecasts, January 2013, Table 3.10 and Annex E.2 Potential Air Passenger Usage at Western Gateway Airport Increased passenger usage of Cardiff airport would require attraction of both locally (regional) generated travel and (with improved rail and road accessibility) a proportion of existing south-east Airports passengers. The potential of this transfer has been assessed on a preliminary overview basis, based on the origin location of air journeys and the respective likelihood of some of these journeys being relocated to Cardiff Airport. This approach assumes that a High Speed rail service is in place between Cardiff Airport and London, and that a wide range of air destinations would be available in future at Cardiff Airport. The potential passenger demand is based on identifying the present location of journey origin for air passengers using London and Birmingham airports (from CAA statistics), and assuming that a proportion of these would transfer to an improved and highly accessible Cardiff Airport, as follows: 20% of travellers with origin / destination in London, Slough & Reading using London Airports; 50% of travellers with origin / destination in the South-West of England using London Airports; 92.9 (103%) 44.2 (98%) 35.4 (101%) 17.7 (98%) 38.3 (104%) 12.3 (103%) 7.8 (98%) 55.2 (100%)

11 50% of travellers with origin / destination in the Wales using Heathrow Airport, and 80% of travellers using other London airports. The resulting potential air trips transferred to Cardiff Airport, as shown in Table 2, could amount to 14M (for present-day figures). Table 2 Potential number of passenger to be diverted to Cardiff Airport Million Passengers / Annum (%age of total assumed to transfer to Western Gateway) Origin of Passengers Birmingham Other London Heathrow Total Airport Airports Airport Wales (80%) (80%) (50%) South West (50%) (50%) (50%) London, Slough & Reading (50%) (20%) (20%) Total Source: A survey of passengers at Birmingham, East Midlands, Gatwick, Heathrow, Luton, Manchester and Stansted in 2011 by Civil Aviation Authority Table 2 indicates the relative importance of attracting passengers from the south-east region to use Cardiff Airport as their departure/arrival airport. It is critical therefore that Cardiff Airport is highly accessible from the south west and south-east of England. In addition to attracting point-to-point air journeys to Cardiff Airport, a direct terminalto-terminal (Cardiff Airport to Heathrow Airport) service could also attract a proportion of the approximate 20 million international hubbing (or interlining) passengers who pass through Heathrow each year. Assuming that with a direct high speed rail link in place that, say, 10% of these movements could be attracted to undertake interlining trips via a joint Cardiff Airport Heathrow Airport hub arrangement, then a further 2 million passengers could use Cardiff Airport. Based on the above outline analysis, and with future air travel growth, a potential passenger demand of 20 million per annum could be a realistic target for Cardiff Airport. Rail Demand by Air Passengers Based on the outline estimate of potential air passenger usage of Cardiff Airport as their departure / arrival airport, an assessment of potential use of High Speed Rail has been undertaken. Table 3 indicates potential rail users on the assumption that 75% of air passengers from the south-east of England would use the High Speed Rail link; this is a high proportion compared to present day public transport use but in the context of future demand management and transport conditions is considered to 9

12 give a realistic high end figure for purposes of sizing the rail service. In comparison, present-day (2011) public transport use at, for example, Gatwick and Stansted is 42% and 49% respectively (Ref. CAA Passenger Survey Report 2011). Table 3: Potential number of air passengers potentially travelling via High Speed 3 Potential Million Air Passengers / Annum Proportion using High Speed Rail to access the Annual High Speed Rail Passengers Origin of Passengers Airport (Millions) Wales % 0.5 South West % 1.4 London, Slough & Reading % 7,9 Total Source: Western Gateway analysis This amount of passenger demand per train can be assessed in respect of a typical hourly train passenger demand, as set out in Table 4. Table 4: Potential number of air passengers potentially travelling via High Speed 3 Assessed Passenger Demand Total number of HS Rail passengers per annum Average HS Rail Passengers per day High Speed Rail Passengers 9.8M two-way From Table ,000 two-way Average HS Rail Passengers per hour 1,500 two-way Assume spread over 19 hours Average HS Rail Passengers per train trains / hr, 80% in peak direction Potential peak HS Rail Passengers per train ~300 Assume twice the average Source: Western Gateway analysis number The passengers flows itemised above would also be augmented by a further 20% based on a potential 2 million per annum interlining passengers (using a direct Cardiff Airport Heathrow Airport High Speed Rail service). 10

13 Rail Demand by Non-Airport Passengers This assessment of the Western Gateway proposal concentrates on the potential for use of High Speed Rail by airport passengers travelling to and from Cardiff Airport. However, in practice passengers with non-airport destinations / origins are likely to represent a significant proportion of rail passengers on the London - Bristol Cardiff corridor. The scope of this Western Gateway study does not include investigated in detail of the potential transfer and growth of present-day rail patronage on the Great Western Rail corridor to a High Speed Rail line. However, present-day usage of the main west stations in Bristol and Cardiff indicates a current combined station usage of around 22 million passengers per annum (see Table 5). For purposes of this outline study, it an indicative future usage of a High Speed Rail corridor between Cardiff and London could be in the region of 5 10 million passengers per annum, based on a significant growth of public transport usage (over car use) and provided that good connections with onward services are in place (e.g. Swansea and South- West England). Thus, in order to identify an order of passenger demand, it is assumed that the usage of a High Speed Rail service between Cardiff and London would be likely fairly evenly split between air passengers (from / to Cardiff Airport) and general rail travellers, which could equate to a potential demand of around 500 passengers per train at peak times in one direction. It should be noted however, that rigorous transport modelling processes would be necessary to produce robust forecasts. Table 5: Present-day Rail Passenger Station Usage Station Entry and Exit Passengers / Annum Cardiff Central 11.5m Bristol Parkway 2.2m Bristol Temple Meads 8.8m Source: Office of Rail Regulation Cardiff Airport Catchments with High Speed Rail Outline assessments of population catchments have been made based on notional road and rail travel times. The catchment diagrams below illustrate the change in catchment which could occur with a High Speed Rail service in place. As indicated, introduction of High Speed Rail produces a step-change in the 2-hour catchment of Cardiff Airport to over 20 million. 11

14 Source: Outline analysis by Western Gateway based on 2011 Census Statistics Source: Outline analysis by Western Gateway based on 2011 Census Statistics 12

15 Airport Infrastructure Terminal and Runway Infrastructure Major infrastructure upgrades would be necessary to increase the capacity of Cardiff Airport to cater for passenger usage of million per annum. Key infrastructure improvements would include: Terminal building Parking Facilities (at around 20,000 spaces) Apron Improvements Runway Extension Realignment of local roads Airport support and associated facilities Upgraded Airport General Arrangement An outline arrangement for Cardiff Airport is shown diagrammatically. It is envisaged that a new road access, a new High Reed Rail station, a new Vale of Glamorgan Rail Line Spur and Station, as well as an area for airport support services and parking would be provided on the periphery of the extended or replaced Airport Terminal. Diagrammatic Representation of Western Gateway Airport General Arrangement Upgraded Airport Runway The length of runway required to cater for international flights from North America and beyond would be subject to a detailed investigation, based on local flying characteristics, local topography, aircraft types, and weather impacts. However, it is 13

16 likely that significant extension of the existing runway would be needed. This may require major earthworks and / or realignment or roads around the airport. Cardiff Airport already has the longest runway in the south west of the UK Airport Runway length (ft) Bristol 6500 Exeter 6800 Cardiff 7700 An extra 1300 feet would remove payload restrictions for any aircraft under most operating conditions. 14

17 ECONOMY The Western Gateway proposal has potential to rebalance the UK economy by delivering significant economic benefits to the western region. Cardiff Airport could generate an extra 1bn in Gross Value Added (GVA) for Wales and support 27,000 Full Time Equivalent jobs (FTEs). HS3 will support a further 73,000 jobs in the UK. SUMMARY Expansion of Cardiff Airport is proposed as the South West Focal Airport in a UK Network of Focal Airports in a Triangular Hub that would promote sustainable development by offering improvements in UK economic, environmental and social performance. Integration of investment in Cardiff, Birmingham and Heathrow airports with their connecting road and rail infrastructure would improve the UK transport system generally whilst producing net economic benefits that help to rebalance the UK economy and create 37,000 direct jobs in the western region. Investment in supporting road and rail infrastructure within Wales will raise both Welsh and UK GVA in a number of ways. It would: introduce a radical upgrade in the connectivity of Cardiff Airport, Wales and SW England provide more frequent and rapid connections that expand the potential market of Welsh based businesses in both the manufacturing and service sectors; and enlarge the labour market pool for the Cardiff City Region, South Wales and South West England economies; Our assessment is based on two scenarios: HS3 in which 18bn is invested in HS rail infrastructure alongside investment of 6.5bn in related projects, giving a total investment of 24.5bn and MTS (Medium Term Solution) involving enhanced rail and road services, which recognises that the HS3 project could be delayed. The MTS scenario would see a total investment of 3.0bn and would be integrated with infrastructure developments already planned or in the pipeline. It would also fully integrate with HS3 when it is built. An expanded catchment area for Cardiff Airport combined with the investments needed to deliver the overall proposal will help raise productivity across a wide area and improve the competitive position of Wales and the West as a place to undertake economic activities. Development of HS3 would generate significant economic activity and economic impacts in terms of direct, indirect and induced effects of 24.5bn to the UK economy from spend on infrastructure. It would create an airport in the west of the UK that generates 1.5bn of spend annually. There would be longer term impacts for both the regional and national economies - not least of which would be the creation of long term assets generating significant tax revenue. Economic growth in the UK is being held back by shortage of airport capacity in the South East. As part of a Triangular Hub or as a stand-alone option, the Cardiff option 15

18 will provide increased airport capacity with lower environmental impact and also help raise productivity of existing firms in the region and attract new firms. Higher productivity and business expansion will create more jobs; better transport facilities will encourage more people to enter the labour market and this additional employment and net new business activity will boost regional Gross Value Added (GVA). The Western Gateway proposal and the development of HS3 combined with regional road and rail connectivity will boost the Welsh and South West England economy, creating an estimated 8,500 direct FTE jobs and a direct GVA impact of 3.0bn during construction most of the expenditure is assumed to be invested over the ten years 2025 to Once the airport has expanded to its target level of 20 mppa by 2040, it will generate 1.5bn in GVA p.a. and support an estimated 27,000 FTEs in Wales. Some of this would generate tax revenues that could be used by the Welsh Government to finance further infrastructure improvements in Wales. A legacy of long term local and regional economic benefits will help local businesses flourish, attract inward investment, associated services and stimulate future income generation. Notably, benefits from an expansion in the tourist industry and related developments. New airport supply chains will develop in Wales. Locally there are likely to be opportunities for manufacture and assembly of the new terminal and related developments within the airport. Operation and maintenance of the airport and infrastructure will include regular servicing of equipment, machinery, installations alongside professional and support services generating local incomes and jobs. Productivity will be enhanced partly by cost and time savings achieved on transport and related activities but also from expanded access to new markets. HS3 and accompanying enhancements to road and rail networks (including MTS) will transform the connectivity of the urban areas of South Wales particularly the new Enterprise Zones - and make them more attractive as locations for businesses. This stimulus to business activity in the city region will concentrate activity in the more productive urban location and generate agglomeration effects that will further raise productivity. Inward investment on a significant scale would mobilise supply chains, generating opportunities for the start-up, indigenous businesses and growth of local suppliers to what could rapidly become a manufacturing and aerospace hub. Enterprise Zones in Cardiff and Vale of Glamorgan will be significant beneficiaries of induced income and employment effects. Related services in food, catering, maintenance, logistics and administration will follow as demonstrated from analysis of Dublin, Heathrow, Belfast and other regional airports. 16

19 Introduction and Method This assessment has been undertaken in the context of risks and opportunities identified by Western Gateway in their earlier submissions in May We have also taken account of relevant Welsh Government policies and statutory local plans in connection with the airport. Primarily, the Welsh Government has invested 52 million in purchasing Cardiff Airport and its expansion will contribute significantly to the strategy to create sustainable jobs in which Aerospace figures as an important industry in terms of employment and market value. In addressing specific questions about the impact on the Cardiff City Region of South Wales and the wider UK economies, we recognise the opportunity to help promote the Western Gateway proposal to stakeholders including potential investors and local businesses and communities. Also we recognise the opportunity to provide an initial framework for developing cost effective and sustainable supply chain linkages needed to maximise the local impact of the project. Methodology Input-Output Tables provide the basis for deriving multiplier estimates of the potential economic impact of the investment expenditure on airport expansion in terms of output and job creation. The various stages of airport development delineated by Western Gateway provide a framework for estimating the economic contribution of investment levels using these multipliers adjusted for the Cardiff and its outer metropolitan area. We have ensured that the multipliers are consistent with previous economic impact assessment studies. The spatial distribution of impacts results from a variety of factors including the location of construction and operational activities, the opportunities to source goods and services, and the characteristics of the regional economy. We expect that a significant proportion of economic impacts will occur in the city region of Cardiff and South Wales and along the route of the HS3 rail link. The extent will depend on public policy as well as market considerations. A large part of the total economic impact is comprised of: Direct impacts refer to the initial employment and income changes arising from the investment expenditure. Indirect impacts refer to supply chain effects as the initial direct expenditure leads to further expenditure in the South Wales economy. Induced effects arise from the additional expenditure which is generated by the additional income of the new employment created by the airport investment 17

20 Assessment method Our assessment method is based on Guidance as set out in HM Green Book Appraisal and Evaluation in Central Government 2011 and on economic impact analysis methodology based on locally derived Input-Output tables with appropriate multipliers for incomes, jobs and expenditure. Input-output tables contain robust assessments of local multiplier effects but indirect and induced effects are often problematic to accurately predict due to the specific nature of Airport investment, related infrastructure and related services that may be sourced locally as well as nationally. We have robust estimates based on existing industrial structure but further refinement will be needed in the future should the development proceed. Also, to generate the impacts our assessment is based on the Western Gateway assumptions concerning HS3 and airport connectivity. Our analysis provides only broad information on supply content and relative costs in relation to both capital and revenue expenditures. Long term local and regional benefits will arise as a legacy from investment in infrastructure that helps attract inward investment and stimulates future income generation. These catalytic impacts will includes benefit from expansion in the tourist economy, inward investment, productivity growth and related developments. The economic benefits arising from these catalytic impacts have been broadly incorporated into the longer term analysis. Also, although difficult to enumerate, issues such as aircraft noise can be considered in relation to economic as well as environmental impact. For instance recent research by the Airports Commission to compare UK airports shows the number of passengers handled for each person affected by aircraft noise in 2006 as: Stansted - 12,467 Gatwick - 9,233 Luton - 3,927 Manchester Heathrow Heathrow is the worst performer of all European airports and assuming a direct relationship between noise level and economic cost, the coastal/semi rural location for Cardiff airport and proposed configuration of the expansion indicates the likelihood of a significantly better economic value relative to noise than at other urban locations. Also, at UK level, there would be a positive economic as well as environmental and social impact from lowering aggregate UK aircraft noise arising from expansion of Cardiff Airport compared to alternatives located in more densely populated urban areas. Although important, the economic benefits from noise reduction have not been directly measured or incorporated at this stage of the analysis. The development proposal Development Option 1 HS3 Against this background Western Gateway has identified the HS3 Scenario in which 18bn investment in rail infrastructure between London and the Cardiff City Region of South Wales will be supported by 6.5bn of additional investment at Cardiff Airport and other improvements in connectivity and rolling stock: 18

21 24.5 billion capital investment in planning and construction over 20 years; and 1bn p.a. of expenditure on operational activities thereafter. This would involve expansion of the airport to take 20 million passengers per annum by 2040 following investment of 1.5bn in improved and expanded airport infrastructure in addition to investment of 4bn in improved rail and road connectivity in South Wales. Construction under the HS3 Scenario is estimated to take at least 15 years on top of the planning phase. Therefore we assume initial investment will be input over 20 years Development Option 2 Interim Development Western Gateway recognises that HS3 is a long term solution and it could be postponed. Therefore a second scenario has been developed based on enhanced rail and road services to Cardiff Airport. This is an interim solution that builds on developments already planned and in the pipeline e.g. the electrified Great Western Railway and the South East Wales Metro. The intention is that the MTS will be embarked upon very quickly and it will be planned and delivered in a way that integrates it fully into HS3 when it becomes available. In this case we assume almost 90% discount to infrastructure costs associated with HS3. This would involve investment of 1.7bn in improved regional rail and road connectivity within the Cardiff City region to the airport. It would coincide with investment of 1.3bn in improved and expanded airport infrastructure. The total number of passengers using the airport would be around 8m ppa (compared with 20 million with HS3) but the MTS could be in place by 2025 or earlier: 3.0 billion capital investment in construction over 10 years; and 450 million p.a. of expenditure to operate the airport thereafter We assume a shorter investment timescale of up to 10 years for the MTS Scenario. Development Phases The economic impact of the Western Gateway proposal occurs over an extended period grouped into three main phases: 1. Preparation and Design Preparation includes noise assessments, environmental impact assessments and other analysis required to demonstrate compliance with planning policies and regulations likely to be between two and six years. 2. Construction and manufacturing Construction involves the provision of rail, road and other services infrastructure as well as a new airport terminal and car parks. The prospect of local/regional manufacturing has potentially huge positive implications for the local economy and jobs with local sourcing in place. Construction involving HS3 is expected to require between 10 and 15 years. Airport infrastructure construction with enhanced local road and rail access will require 5 to 10 years concurrently. 3. Operation The airport and associated infrastructure will require operation and maintenance. Studies of similar developments highlight significant opportunities for induced benefits particularly in services related activity in the areas of hotels, freight agents and depots in-flight catering activities, car parking; and airline/ aviation services. 19

22 Capital Spend For the HS3 Scenario, out of the construction total of 24.5bn investment we expect about 8.5bn to be spent on infrastructure in Wales (from the Severn Crossing to the Airport). But around 50% of this capital spend is likely to be lost to Wales in the purchase of specialist equipment and services. So we estimate that 4.25bn could be retained in the Welsh economy based on the effective participation of Welsh suppliers. For the MTS Scenario, out of the total construction costs of 3.0bn we expect all of this capital investment to be spent on infrastructure in Wales (from the current main railway line and motorway system into the Airport). But around 50% of this capital spend will be lost to Wales in the purchase of specialist equipment and services. So we estimate that 1.5bn could be retained in the Welsh economy ( 150m p.a.) based on the effective participation of Welsh suppliers. Impact Matrix for the Cardiff City Region of South Wales Based on these assumptions about the level of spend in the region, we have analysed economic impact initially in terms of direct, indirect and induced impacts. These will occur across various stages of development. In addition, the longer term catalytic impacts will also generate expenditures, GVA and jobs and although these will be more difficult to measure we offer an estimate of their magnitude. The analysis provided below reflects the direct, indirect and induced impacts that can be estimated from input-output tables. Our estimates of longer term catalytic benefits at the South Wales level are based on reasonable estimates of total benefits. Annexes explain how the coefficients and multipliers have been derived. HS3 Scenario - Construction Overall the HS3 Scenario will generate the following economic benefits: The total expenditure impact of the HS3 option on the Cardiff City Region of South Wales from the direct expenditure of 24.5bn will be to generate additional incomes and outputs in the City region totalling about 425 million p.a. over ten years ( 4.25bn). The GVA contribution is estimated at 3bn. With multipliers effects (summarised in the tables) this expenditure generates total income and expenditure over the lifetime of the project of about 610 million p.a. over ten years - or 6.1bn in total. The total employment impact resulting total expenditure of 610 million p.a. over ten years would be to create 8,500 FTE direct jobs in the Cardiff City Region of South Wales and when multiplier effects are included, this will generate a further 4,060 FTE indirect jobs giving a total of 12,560 FTE jobs in South Wales during the construction phase. Most of these jobs will result from capital expenditure on construction projects and the likely spread across the sectors of the economy is highlighted in the tables. There could be far more people working on the project at any specific time but some of these jobs will be short term jobs rather than the full time equivalent (FTE) jobs we have calculated over ten years. 20

23 HS3 Scenario Operation Once the investments are in place, the expanded airport will have a continuing economic impact. Assuming the airport grows to 20.0 million passengers p.a. by 2040, then the investment and ongoing operation of the airport is likely to have the following impacts: An activity level of 20.0 mppa will create 18,000 Direct jobs at the airport which will create further Indirect and Induced jobs of 9,000. The total Jobs supported in the region will be 27,000 generating regional incomes of around 1 billion p.a. In addition, to the above impacts generated by infrastructure investment and the ongoing operation of the airport, there will be the wider economic benefits that are captured as longer term catalytic impacts. These arise initially from the effect that better connectivity can have on the region in terms of enhancing business competitiveness. For example, a busy airport with a hinterland connected to Heathrow and the South East region will enhance productivity of local firms by providing better access to suppliers and customers. In the longer term this improvement in connectivity will attract more businesses to the west of the UK and help rebalance the UK economy. Also, the availability of land around the airport for the development of business parks and the improvement in inter modal transport facilities will act as a further magnet for inward investment and business growth. These longer term catalytic impacts are likely to be very important for Wales and the West of England as the region currently suffers from an infrastructure deficit compared with the South East. However the longer term productivity benefits, the impact on inward investment flows and the boost to the tourism economy have not been quantified at this stage. Most studies suggest that catalytic impacts are at least as important as the medium term multiplier effects. In this case they would increase the longer term multiplier effects from 1.5 to 2. If we were to apply this multiplier to the continuing economic impact of the enlarged airport from 2040 onwards, the total number of jobs supported in the region would rise from 27,000 to 36,000 creating about 1.5bn in incomes p.a. for the Cardiff City Region. However, catalytic effects are longer term and depend on a number of factors - like productivity improvements and inward investment - that cannot be guaranteed. MTS Scenario Construction Overall the MTS Scenario will generate economic benefits on a smaller but still significant scale: The total expenditure impact of the MTS option on Cardiff City Region from the direct expenditure of 3.0bn will be to generate additional incomes and outputs in the region totalling about 150 million p.a. over ten years ( 1.5bn). The GVA contribution is estimated at just over 1.0bn. With multiplier effects, this level of expenditure generates total income and expenditure over the lifetime of the project of about 215 million p.a. over ten years - or 2.15bn in total into the regional economy. 21

24 The total employment generated by this level of spend would be around 3,000 FTE direct jobs in Wales during the construction phase and a total of 4,400 when indirect and induced effects are taken into account. These jobs would be of different duration and spread across various sectors of the economy. Again we have calculated full time equivalent (FTE) jobs. MTS Scenario Operation We expect the investments in MTS to occur within ten years. We assume that with the additional infrastructure investment the expanded airport will grow to 8.0 million passengers p.a. by 2030 and these aviation activities will have a continuing economic impact. The investment and ongoing operation at the airport are likely to have the following impacts: An activity level of 8.0 mppa will create 7,500 Direct jobs at the airport which will create further Indirect and Induced jobs of 3,750. The total Jobs supported in the region will be 11,250 generating regional incomes of around 450 million p.a. As with the HS3 option, there will be longer term catalytic impacts associated with the ERS option and these will be additional to the above effects. These will arise from the positive effect that better connectivity will have on the region s business efficiency and providing better access to suppliers and customers. In the longer term these effects would be to increase the regional job creation to 15,000 and the impact on regional incomes closer to 700million p.a. However, again the uncertain nature of the long term catalytic effects must be emphasised. Impact Matrix for the UK Economy The first point to emphasise is the need to rebalance the UK economy and the important role that Cardiff Airport - with the HS3 option - would provide in achieving this. With the HS3 link between Cardiff Airport and Heathrow our preferred solution would be to create a South West National Airport at Cardiff within a UK Network of National Airports to promote sustainable development in airport expansion that would offer economic and environmental benefits. This would involve progressively integrating investment in airport, road and rail infrastructure around the three linked airport hubs in the South of the UK. Some organisations strongly oppose the creation of other hub airports in the South their refrain is one hub or none - otherwise London would supposedly lose its role as the primary European airport for international inter-connections. However, this over simplifies the situation and ignores the problems of expanding Heathrow indefinitely to cater for traffic growth. Under our three-hub policy, the existing infrastructure, jobs and businesses that are currently based around Heathrow could remain in place and even some expansion of Heathrow would be possible. However, the substantial growth in passenger numbers that is forecast over the next two decades would mostly be accommodated at the other two hubs (Cardiff and Birmingham) and by expansion at other airports. HS3 Scenario at UK level Construction With Cardiff Airport developed as one of the integrated three hubs the net economic benefits would be significant and would substantially contribute to rebalancing the UK economy. For example, the total economic impact of the HS3 option outlined above would be much greater at the UK level than at the regional level. The HS3 option will involve around 24.5bn in expenditure. Of this total spend about 75% bn - would likely remain in the UK after leakages abroad to purchase 22

25 specialised equipment and other inputs. This level of expenditure would create around 37,000 direct jobs across the UK and make a GVA contribution of 13.3bn. Multiplier effects for this type of construction project are estimated at around 1.8 (see Annex 1) but because of the uncertainties involved in estimating UK wide multipliers we have retained the regional multiplier of 1.5 used above. Using an estimated multiplier of around 1.5 at the national level this would result in indirect and induced effects that would take the total impact of the HS3/ Cardiff Airport hub to 55,200 jobs over ten years based on total expenditure within the UK (including multiplier effects) of 27.5bn. MTS Scenario at UK level Construction The economic impact at the UK level for the MTS option would be smaller but also substantial. It would begin the process of rebalancing the UK economy and set the scene for the longer term solution involving HS3. Around 3.0bn would be invested in local infrastructure improvements. After accounting for leakages, this expenditure would result in 2.25bn being spent within the UK and a GVA contribution of 1.62bn. This level of spend would create 4,500 direct jobs and, after indirect/induced effects are taken into account, about 6,750 Total FTE jobs would be created across the UK over ten years. The related total spend would be 3.38bn. Catalytic Impacts at UK level In line with the regional analysis of both the HS3 option and the ERS options, the economic impact at the UK level would be further enhanced by catalytic impacts once the infrastructure is in place and the new airport hub is operating at its planned level. The HS3 option would create an airport hub with 20 mppa which would then create around 73,000 jobs in the longer term if the conditions necessary for productivity improvements and inward investment were met. Similarly, taking catalytic effects into account, the impact of MTS with an airport hub facilitating 8 mppa would be to generate over 9,000 jobs at the UK level. However, the long term, uncertain nature of these catalytic effects have to be borne in mind. Finally, economic impact studies often underestimate displacement and deadweight effects. This means that the net impact on jobs and GVA can be over-estimated. However, we have used very conservative estimates of multiplier effects. These would be consistent with displacement effects of up to 20%. So we do not expect the figures to alter significantly when a fuller analysis of displacement is undertaken. Conclusions Shortage of airport capacity in the South East has opened a unique window of opportunity to expand and rebalance the UK economy through investment in a core transport infrastructure that integrates a UK Network of National Airports with high speed road and rail systems to create a Triangular Hub between Cardiff, Birmingham and Heathrow airports. This innovative alternative to the conventional hub airport would deliver economic, environmental and social benefits from a convenient, affordable and comfortable experience for millions of air passengers no matter where they access or exit the integrated systems. Benefits would not be restricted only to air passengers. Delivery of such an experience would be facilitated by expansion of Cardiff Airport as the South West National Airport and construction of rapid surface connections as a 23

26 combined means to generate maximum economic benefits for least environmental and social cost. Cardiff is the optimal location. There is minimal resistance to development and wide support for expansion offering considerable advantages in cost and procurement whilst, after considering local multiplier effects, development based on the HS3 scenario could generate an estimated 55,500 jobs. The Western Gateway approach would relieve pressure on the congested and constrained South East and help rebalance the UK economy. It will also offer the prospect of local environmental performance and social benefits better than any practical alternative, whilst future expansion can be readily accommodated. Summary of the Economic Impact of the Proposed HS3 and MTS scenarios Total Investment Direct Spend Regionally or Contribution to GVA Total income and Total Jobs (FTE) bn Nationally bn bn expenditure bn HS3 (Wales) HS3 (National Plus catalytic impact MTS (Wales) MTS (National) Plus catalytic impact 9000 HS3 Airport hub with 20 mppa (from 2040) HS3 Airport hub plus catalytic impact MTS Airport hub with 8 mppa (from 2030) MTS Airport hub plus catalytic impact [Note on the total number of jobs summarised in the table: The number of FTEs created by infrastructure developments at the National level are inclusive of the 24

27 Regional FTEs. These jobs will be created in the period up to 2040 (HS3) or 2030 (ERS). After that date the airport is assumed to be in operation at its target level of passengers p.a. The expanded airport will then be making its own contribution to GVA.] 25

28 SURFACE ACCESS An express bus service to be introduced in August 2013 will provide a high level of provision for an airport of the current size of Cardiff Airport. However for the Western Gateway proposal substantial improvements will be required to both road and rail access which can be phased over time. Current Transport Infrastructure and Services Transport issues associated with current airport access are summarised as follows: An express high frequency bus service is to be introduced between central Cardiff and the airport No direct rail link to/from Cardiff by public transport; currently requires a bus transfer to Rhoose Station Walking and cycling for passengers is generally not feasible due to remoteness of airport from populated areas Poor accessibility and peak time journey time reliability to Cardiff International Airport by car. In particular, road traffic congestion at A4232 and Culverhouse Cross, with little alternative if the junction is experiencing problems. Community severance and environmental degradation caused by inappropriate traffic flows on local roads in the area. Poor road safety record on routes to the airport A high level of car dependence High Speed Rail A key long-term strategy for increasing passenger usage at Cardiff Airport to a target figure of 20mppa is to construct a high Speed Rail route between Cardiff Airport and Central London, via Cardiff and Bristol with the possibility of an intermediate parkway station and a London Heathrow station. A High Speed Rail infrastructure would be likely to consist of the following main elements: High Speed Rail (HS3) and Stations between West London and Cardiff Airport High Speed Rail Rolling Stock with air passenger and baggage facilities Modifications to existing stations and rail facilities Automated People Movers linking HS3 with other rail stations RailAir Hub Check-in facilities Local Public Transport As well as providing High Speed Rail access to the airport, it will be essential to connect Cardiff Airport directly to the local and regional road and rail network. Particular schemes which would be suitable for consideration include: The express bus service would benefit from improved Bus Lane infrastructure through Barry / Port Road 26

29 Realignment of the Vale of Glamorgan rail line with spur (and station) into the Airport campus. Coach access via new road link from the M4 motorway Road Access In addition to improvement to rail access, it will be necessary to provide a direct road link to the UK motorway network. The Welsh Government has investigated and consulted on potential road access improvements, and it is likely that the most beneficial scheme for Airport access would be: Dual carriageway access road from M4 Junction 34, running north-south directly to the Airport In addition, local access improvements would be needed in the form of: local road junction improvements, bus priority measures, cycle routes, and pedestrian infrastructure improvement measures. Phasing of Access Proposals It is essential that access to Cardiff Airport is improved over time such that passenger growth can be achieved over the short and medium term prior to a potential High Speed Rail connection being in place. A medium-term pre-hs3 scenario (as represented in the diagrams) could include: A dual carriageway access road from J34 of the M4 (at Hensol) connecting to Cardiff Airport; An Airport Station on the Great Western Railway in the vicinity of J34 of the M4 at Hensol, served by inter-city and local rail services (and Park & Ride facilities), with direct non-stopping shuttle bus services (with an approximate 10 minutes journey time) between this station and Cardiff Airport; An extension of the mainline rail from West Cardiff with the Airport campus, giving direct rail access from the UK inter-city rail network; A rail spur into the Airport campus from the Vale of Glamorgan rail line, with services from early morning to late night to cater for shift patterns of airport workers; Regular bus and coach services from Cardiff (via Culverhouse Cross) and other locations in South Wales, with services from early morning to 27

30 late night to cater for shift patterns of airport workers. Provision of transport improvements over the medium term could increase the 2-hour catchment of Cardiff Airport significantly, and illustrative catchments are indicated in the diagram opposite. 28

31 ENVIRONMENT The location of Cardiff Airport leads to a low environmental impact particularly compared with building new runways in the London area. Detailed environmental assessments have not been undertaken, however, in order to help assess the environmental impacts associated with a significant expansion of Cardiff Airport, a high level appraisal has considered the criteria set out in the Welsh Transport Planning and Appraisal Guidance (WelTAG). The outline appraisal identifies potential impacts in respect of criteria such as economy, society and environment. The appraisal focuses on airport expansion and does not consider in detail the issues associated with a new high speed railway line from London/Heathrow to Cardiff Airport. It is noted that the consenting process for the High Speed Two proposals has been promoted by Government by means of a hybrid bill, supported by a statutory environmental impact assessment. Figure 1: Local Environmental Designations Key environmental designations are shown in Figure 1. The figure indicates the presence of a number of environmental and heritage-related designations in the 29

32 vicinity of the site including Scheduled Ancient Monuments, Listed Buildings, a Historic Landscape Area, Essential Setting and Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI s). Within the wider region the Severn Estuary Special Area of Conservation (SAC) and Special Protection Area (SPA) are within 15km of the site. Whilst few of these designated sites are directly adjacent to the airport footprint, an expansion of airport operations in terms of aircraft movements or the footprint itself could give rise to an effect on the designated sites. Potential environmental effects of airport expansion are discussed below in respect of a number of key criteria. Aircraft Noise: An increase in passenger numbers and therefore flights could lead to an increase in the proportion of the community around the airport experiencing annoyance from noise and also increase the level of community noise annoyance. The main approach to Cardiff Airport is over water, and the key receptor areas for aircraft noise adjacent to the airport are relatively sparsely populated compared to other airports in the south east of England. Increases in flights would therefore impact on a much lower proportion of the UK population than developments in other airport locations. It is likely that increased flights to Cardiff Airport would require a range of noise mitigation measures that would be confirmed through detailed noise assessment. Potential mitigation options include, amongst other things, noise insulation and controls on aircraft ground movements, flight paths and take off manoeuvres. Surface traffic noise: Surface traffic would increase in response to an increase in flights. Cardiff Airport s Master Plan 2006 notes that 66% of traffic destined from the airport originates at Junction 33 of the M4 and that the signed routing passes a large number of residential properties. In the long term, a new link road is proposed from the M4 to the airport, which would create a new route to the airport that avoids existing affected residential properties. This would have the benefit of reducing noise impacts for residents located in proximity to the existing airport link road. Local Air Quality: Increased surface level traffic and air movements would result in an increase in emissions to air. Currently, the Vale of Glamorgan has not designated any Air Quality Management Areas and emissions key pollutants such as Nitrogen Dioxide (NO 2 ) and particulates (PM 2.5 & PM 10 ) do not exceed air quality objectives in the Vale of Glamorgan. Diversion of airport traffic via a new link road is likely to reduce traffic related emissions within the urban area, providing a benefit to local residents. However detailed air quality assessment is required to assess the potential effect of increased air traffic and any potential benefits arising from diversion of traffic away from other airports in the south east. 30

33 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Aviation is the fastest-growing source of climate change emissions and owing to the effects of these emissions at high altitudes, they are disproportionately damaging. An increase of passengers at Cardiff airport to around 20 million per annum would result in a localised increase in emissions but would effectively be a transfer of demand from elsewhere. There could be a reduction in CO2 emissions due to surface travel as a result of use of Cardiff Airport instead of other airports and due to transfer from car to rail. The airport proposal would need to address the government s Aviation Policy Framework (2013) which states that Our objective is to ensure that the aviation sector makes a significant and cost-effective contribution towards reducing global emissions. Social Impact: The airport is in an area of low population density (3.8 people per hectare in the Vale of Glamorgan). The nearest settlement of any significant size is Rhoose with a population of 4871, and a single primary school. Barry, a town around 4.5 km to the east, has a population of 47,800 people and a wide range of local facilities. The increase in employment due to the development is likely to have a very significant impact on the local population in terms of increased job provision, and a possible large increase in demand for accommodation in the local area. Appropriate facilities and infrastructure would be needed to meet the needs of a larger local population. Landscape and townscape: The airport is set within an area of mixed historic landscape with historic industrial landscape to the east and medieval agricultural designations to the north. LANDMAP characterises the airport as an urban landscape of low scenic quality, due to views being dominated by an open and flat developed landscape. Expansion of the airport and construction of a new link road would have visual and landscape impacts that would require further evaluation, although these would need to be assessed within the context of the existing airport site. Biodiversity: The Severn Estuary SAC and SPA European designated sites are located within a 15km radius of Cardiff International Airport. There are 11 SSSI sites within 10km of the airport. The closest three SSSIs located in proximity to Cardiff Airport are: East Aberthaw Coast SSSI located 1.6km from the site, designated for its rare species e.g. flatworm, intertidal habitats. Cliff Wood Golden Stairs SSSI located 891.5m from the site, designated for its mixed woodland. Barry Woodlands SSSI located 1.3km from the site, designated for its wide variety of woodland plants. 31

34 Expansion of the airport and an increase in flights has potential to impact on protected species and habitats and would require further detailed survey and screening. Changes in air quality (e.g. deposition of dust or) nitrogen could lead to an impact on designated habitats. Further detailed assessment of air quality effects would be required to assess potential effects. Soil: Expansion of the airport site has potential to result in loss of agricultural land or to disturb areas of contaminated land. Any expansion of the airport would require detailed analysis of existing ground conditions and potential mitigation measures relating to the findings of these studies. Heritage: There are several listed buildings and Scheduled Ancient Monuments (SM) within the surrounding area of the airport. The closest SMs comprise: The Bulwarks Camp, a defense hillfort located 243m to the south; and Penmark Castle located 690m to the north. There are one Grade 1 and four Grade 2 listed buildings within 250m of the airport. An historic park and garden is located at Fonmon Castle to the north west of the airport. Expansion of the airport has potential to impact on the settings of these features and would require further evaluation. Water Environment: There are several watercourses within the surrounding area of Cardiff Airport within an approximate 500m radius of the site. Cardiff Airport does not fall within the 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000 year indicative flood zone area for these watercourses. Cardiff Airport lies over a Secondary A bedrock aquifer and ground water vulnerability is high, based on data obtained from Natural Resources Wales. Airport expansion could impact directly on surface and groundwater resources and increase the area of impermeable surfaces leading to a need to manage increased surface water runoff. Discharges from airports have potential to be contaminated by aviation fuel, oils and deicing agents. Surface water flows would require appropriate interception and pollution control to ensure discharge of clean, uncontaminated runoff. Further assessment of surface water run-off, pollution control and attenuation would be required. 32

35 PEOPLE High Speed Rail gives considerable journey time savings between Cardiff Airport and London. The longer journey time between London and Cardiff Airport compared with Heathrow is partly offset by savings in airborne time on flights heading west. Airport Journey Time Assessment Table 7: Passenger journey time savings for passenger to US from London using Heathrow compared with Cardiff Time to Airport saving Flight time saving Ground taxi saving Heathrow 0.9 hrs Cardiff (using high speed rail) 0.36 hrs 0.16 hrs TOTAL 0.9 hrs 0.52 hrs Source: Western Gateway analysis; Travel times with High Speed Rail are indicative Using High Speed Rail to Cardiff Airport compared with using Heathrow Airport will only incur a time penalty of 23 minutes for a traveller to the United States. Rail Journey Time Assessment It is critical that journey times are significantly improved for travel between Cardiff and the London region. Based on published speed forecasts for High Speed 2, the journey time to Cardiff Airport from the east have been estimated (see Table 7), and for example, travel from London would be expected to reduce from today s 3 hour journey time to approximately 1 hour 15 minutes. In addition, a direct non-stopping High Speed Rail service from Cardiff Airport to Heathrow could operate with a travel time of around 1 hour. These journey times represent a step-change from current operations, and would enable Cardiff Airport to be within a 2 hour journey time for significant proportion of the London region. 33

36 Table 8: Travel Time by Rail between Cardiff and London Destinations Current typical travel time by rail Estimated travel time with High Speed Cardiff Cardiff Airport 30 mins 12 mins Cardiff Central London 2hr 4 mins 1hr Cardiff Airport - Bristol Parkway 1 hr 24 mins 25 mins Cardiff Airport - Central London 2 hr 53 mins 1 hr 15 mins Cardiff Airport - West London Interchange - 1 hr 10 mins Cardiff Airport - Heathrow Airport (non-direct) 3 hr 13 mins 1 hr 25 mins Cardiff Airport - Heathrow Airport (Non-stop) - 1 hr Cardiff Airport - Birmingham 2 hr 50 mins 1 hr 55 mins Source: National Rail and Western Gateway analysis; Travel times with High Speed Rail are indicative Rail Local Engagement In a survey conducted by the South Wales Chamber of Commerce, 86.5% of members who responded were in support of the project. Support has also been received from the Institute of Directors in Wales. 34

37 COST To assess the outline feasibility of expansion of Cardiff Airport, it is desirable to identify at an early stage a potential order of costs. Thus a preliminary estimate of the capital costs of key infrastructure components of a strategy to construct a high speed rail line to Cardiff Airport, together with a new terminal building and associated airport improvements, has been prepared. The cost estimates are necessarily not based on detailed layouts or design and thus would need to be reviewed and refined on the basis of future design development. The outline cost estimates are presented in Table 9. As can be seen, costs for airport infrastructure amount to approximately 1,350m. which could be financed by the private sector using income from airport charges. The remainder of the infrastructure costs will need to be funded by the public sector. Table 9: Preliminary Cost Benchmarking Type of Infrastructure Cost Element Total Costs Preliminary Estimate for HS3 Option ( M) Total Costs Preliminary Estimate for MTS option ( M) Airport Terminal building Infrastructure Parking Facilities Apron Improvements Runway Extension and realignment of local roads General infrastructure Utilities Land Acquisition SUB TOTAL 1,350 1,350 External Rail Infrastructure Medium-term local rail realignment and new Cardiff airport station Medium-term mainline rail extension to Cardiff Airport High Speed Rail (HS3) and Stations between London and Cardiff Airport High Speed Rail Rolling Stock with air passenger and baggage facilities Modifications to existing stations and rail facilities Automated People Movers linking HS3 with other stations ,000 1,000 17,000 N.A 3,650 N.A 150 N.A 100 N.A Rail Hub Check-in facilities 100 N.A Land Acquisition 500 N.A SUB TOTAL 22,700 1,200 External Dual carriageway access road from M Junction 34 Road Local roads access, bus lane, cycle track, signals Infrastructure Land Acquisition SUB TOTAL TOTAL 24,500 3,000 Note: Costs are present-day and indicative only, to illustrate the order of costs. They will need to be confirmed at a later stage of any Western Gateway study following more detailed appraisal. 35

38 OPERATIONAL VIABILITY Cardiff Airport is located away from the congested airspace of south east England which leads to a number of operational advantages particular for aircraft operating to/from the north, south and west. Local Airspace Cardiff Airport is situated about 25 miles south from where two key airway routes known as Lima 9 and N864 cross. Lima 9 L9 or Lima 9 routes from Southern Ireland, across Southern England leaving the south east coast of the UK at Dover, the airway then continues over the English Channel to the North coast of France. Lima 9 track Enters UK airspace at STU (Strumble Head on the coast of Wales), AMMAN (Mid west Wales), BCN (Brecon South Wales), ERNOK (South Wales), POMAX (Gloucestershire), KENET (Wiltshire), CPT (Wiltshire), BIG (Biggin Hill), DVR (Dover). N284 N284 enters the UK at Berry Head and routes north to Wallasey. N284 track Enters the UK at BHD (Berry Head Devon), DAWLY (Dawlish Warren Devon), NUMPO (South Wales), BCN (Brecon South Wales), DIKAS (South Wales), NITON (Mid Wales), MONTY (North Wales), DOGIT (North Wales), WALLASEY (Liverpool). This means that departures and arrivals to Cardiff Airport from the south, west and north avoid congested airspace in the south east of England and do not experience the delays associated with the London Airports. Cardiff Terminal Area The current capacity of the Cardiff Terminal Area is 50 movements per hour shared between St. Athan, Cardiff and Bristol. St. Athan generates insignificant amounts of traffic and easterly operations at Bristol have no impact on the Cardiff Terminal Area. 50 movements an hour would accommodate the existing traffic and additional traffic generated by the Western Gateway proposal. Continuous Climb Operations The uncongested airspace also allows aircraft departing Cardiff to use Continuous Climb Operations (CCOs) on a more frequent basis. According to the CAA CCOs refer to the removal of the airspace constraints that result in a stepped climb to cruise, thereby providing an optimised continuous climb, dependent on the aircraft s own configuration and performance capability, which varies across the fleet of aircraft operating in UK airspace. Figure 1 below illustrates the components of a perfect flight based on vertical performance, which includes a continuous climb 36

39 component. A continuous climb from departure to cruising altitude significantly increases the fuel efficiency of the aircraft delivering fuel savings to aircraft operators as well as delivering emission savings. Source: Civil Aviation Authority 37