THE LOCAL IMPACT OF THE UK BEER AND PUB SECTOR

Transcription

1 THE LOCAL IMPACT OF THE UK BEER AND PUB SECTOR A REPORT FOR THE BRITISH BEER AND PUB ASSOCIATION (BBPA) NOVEMBER 2016

2 Oxford Economics Oxford Economics was founded in 1981 as a commercial venture with Oxford University s business college to provide economic forecasting and modelling to UK companies and financial institutions expanding abroad. Since then, we have become one of the world s foremost independent global advisory firms, providing reports, forecasts and analytical tools on 200 countries, 100 industrial sectors and over 3,000 cities. Our best-of-class global economic and industry models and analytical tools give us an unparalleled ability to forecast external market trends and assess their economic, social and business impact. Headquartered in Oxford, England, with regional centres in London, New York, and Singapore, Oxford Economics has offices across the globe in Belfast, Chicago, Dubai, Miami, Milan, Paris, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Washington DC. We employ over 230 full-time people, including more than 150 professional economists, industry experts and business editors one of the largest teams of macroeconomists and thought leadership specialists. Our global team is highly skilled in a full range of research techniques and thought leadership capabilities, from econometric modelling, scenario framing, and economic impact analysis to market surveys, case studies, expert panels, and web analytics. Underpinning our in-house expertise is a contributor network of over 500 economists, analysts and journalists around the world. Oxford Economics is a key adviser to corporate, financial and government decision-makers and thought leaders. Our worldwide client base now comprises over 1000 international organisations, including leading multinational companies and financial institutions; key government bodies and trade associations; and top universities, consultancies, and think tanks. All data shown in tables and charts are Oxford Economics own data, except where otherwise stated and cited in footnotes, and are copyright Oxford Economics Ltd. This report is confidential to British Beer and Pub Association and may not be published or distributed without their prior written permission. The modelling and results presented here are based on information provided by third parties, upon which Oxford Economics has relied in producing its report and forecasts in good faith. Any subsequent revision or update of those data will affect the assessments and projections shown. To discuss the report further please contact: Neil McCullough: nmccullough@oxfordeconomics.com Oxford Economics Lagan House, Sackville Street, Lisburn, BT27 4AB, UK Tel:

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive summary Introduction About this study Report structure Impact of breweries UK estimates Regional estimates Impact of pubs UK estimates Regional estimates Impact of beer sales in the rest of the on-trade sector UK estimates Regional estimates Impact of beer sales in the off-trade sector UK estimates Regional estimates Impact of the overall beer and pub sector Introduction UK estimates Regional estimates Conclusions Beer and pub activity provides significant benefits Brewing activity porvides the greatest supply chain benefits The pub element in the main contributor Notable beer sales activity in the rest of the on-trade As well as in the off-trade The, London, the South East and the North are the big winners Comparisons with our previous 2013 BBPA report The beer and pub sector is of great importance... 48

4 Annex A: Approach Updating our previous analysis Available data Geographical issues Model framework Devising total estimates of overall beer and pub sector Limitations Additional analysis Direct employment by age group Direct employment by employment status Net capital investment expenditure (CAPEX) Taxation Annex B (Part 1): Local impact of the beer and pub sector at parliamentary constituency level Annex B (Part 2): Local impact of the beer and pub sector at parliamentary constituency level... 81

5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Oxford Economics were commissioned in September 2016 by the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA) to update our estimates of the economic impact of the beer and pub sector in the UK. This executive summary sets out the key findings at a UK and regional level. Estimates at parliamentary constituency (PC) level are provided in the annexes, as well as in an accompanying spreadsheet model. 898,000 jobs Jobs sustained through the activity of the beer and pub sector in the UK. THE BEER AND PUB SECTOR CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT BENEFITS TO THE UK ECONOMY It is clear that activity in the brewing of beer and subsequent sale through the on- and off-trade channels, along with the activity of pubs, provides significant economic benefits to the economy. Fig 1 shows our estimates of the direct, indirect and induced impacts of the beer and pub sector across the UK as a whole. Fig. 1. The estimated benefits of the beer and pub sector, UK Overall beer and pub sector UK GVA ( m) Employment Wages ( m) Direct 12, ,650 5,960 Indirect 6, ,250 3,410 Induced 3, ,460 1,520 Total 23, ,350 10,890 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding 23.1bn GVA sustained Total economic benefits were estimated to be largest in London, the South East, the and the North. Overall beer and pub activity has been estimated to sustain 898,350 jobs, 10.9bn of wages and 23.1bn of GVA across the UK from direct, indirect and induced effects. AND THE REGIONS SHARE THESE BENEFITS In terms of GVA, employment and wages, the beer and pub sector makes a significant economic contribution in every region of the UK. As in our last report, these overall economic benefits remain largest in London, the South East, the and the North (Fig. 2). In most cases the regional estimates are broadly comparable with population shares, though differentials in regional productivity and wages do cause some differences across the UK. 1

6 Fig. 2. The estimated benefits of the beer and pub sector, UK regions Overall beer and pub sector Regional summary GVA ( m) Employment Wages ( m) South East 3, ,440 1,500 London 3,460 92,480 1,640 East 1,990 91, South 2,000 91, ,020 89,240 1,210 East 1,470 57, ,740 83, North 2, ,830 1,160 North East , Wales , Scotland 1,730 58, Northern Ireland , UK 23, ,350 10,890 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding EACH ELEMENT HAS A SIGNIFICANT ROLE 10.9bn Wages sustained Wages sustained in the overall sector were greatest in London and the South East. The underlying analysis focused on estimating the direct, indirect and induced impacts at a local level from four elements of beer and pub activity: the brewing of beer; the activity of pubs; the proportion of activity in the rest of the on-trade (excluding pubs) that is attributable to the sale of beer (e.g. hotels, restaurants and sports clubs); and the share of the off-trade that is dependent on beer sales. Our analysis produces the following headline findings across the UK (which again include the combined direct, indirect and induced impacts) 1 : Activity in the brewery element has been estimated to sustain 105,570 jobs, 2.31bn of wages and 5.86bn of GVA; Activity in the pub element has been estimated to sustain 797,230 jobs, 8.98bn of wages and 18.13bn of GVA; The beer related on-trade has been estimated to sustain 48,820 jobs, 720m of wages and 1.38bn of GVA; and 1 Summing the benefits of all four elements (breweries, pub, on-trade and off-trade) will overestimate the indirect, induced and as a result, overall impacts. This is because the supply chains of the pub, on- and off-trade elements contain a proportion of the brewery element and its supply chain. To get the direct totals (for employment, GVA and wages), we add all the 4 elements. However for the indirect and induced totals, we add the pub, on- and offtrade, and 12.7% of the breweries (to account for exports forming 12.7% of total production). The remainder of the brewery s indirect and induced impacts will already be accounted for in the indirect and induced impacts from the other 3 elements. 2

7 Beer sales in the off-trade have been estimated to sustain 22,690 jobs, 430m of wages and 900m of GVA. Since 2013, total employment, GVA and wages sustained by the beer and pub activity have all grown. Indeed, since the last report we estimate an additional 29,000 jobs were supported by the overall sector. All elements of beer and pub showed improvement over the year with the exception of the off-trade subsector which experienced a slight fall in employment. The Wales region continues to show the strongest concentration of pubs per head of population of any region in the UK. The had a significantly higher share of direct GVA from the pub element than would be expected based on its population level (Fig. 20). This is likely as a result of the presence of four of the larger UK pub operators in the region. THE SECTOR EMPLOYS A LARGE PROPORTION OF YOUNG PEOPLE We estimate that of the 641,650 direct jobs across the UK, 268,850 (42 percent) are taken by those under 25 years of age (Fig. 3). This is largely due to the pub element of the sector (easily the largest of the four elements accounting for 90 percent of direct employment), where there is a high proportion of young people working. The large share of young people in employment is significant because on average, 36 percent of the total job seeker claimant on-flows (those starting to claim unemployment benefits) since November 2008 have been from the 24 and under age group. There are more people estimated to be in this age group than in the last four (35+ year of age) combined. Fig. 3. Total direct employment in the beer and pub sector by age group, UK Direct employment 300, , , , ,000 50,000 0 Under Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics 3

8 AND A HIGH INCIDENCE OF PART-TIME WORKING An analysis of the direct employment in the beer and pub sector by employment status (i.e. whether the job is full or part-time) indicates the high incidence of parttime workers. Our estimates in Fig. 4 show that 278,750 or 43.4 percent of the 641,650 direct jobs in the sector were full-time compared to 362,900 (or 56.6 percent) part-time roles. Again, this is largely as a result of the pub element, which offers employees the flexibility to work on a part-time basis. Of the 12 UK regions, the North East was estimated to have the highest proportion of part-time workers at 64 percent. Only London and Northern Ireland were estimated to have more full-time than part-time workers. Fig. 4. Total direct employment in the beer and pub sector by employment status, UK regions Overall beer and pub sector Direct employment by status Full-time Part-time Total South East 46,600 54, ,540 London 33,540 31,220 64,760 East 32,620 34,260 66,870 South 24,900 41,020 65,920 24,160 32,590 56,760 East 16,670 21,980 38,640 22,500 37,820 60,330 North 30,340 49,670 80,010 North East 7,550 13,410 20,960 Wales 14,910 18,920 33,830 Scotland 18,600 21,790 40,380 Northern Ireland 6,350 5,300 11,650 UK 278, , ,650 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), Labour Force Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding BEER AND PUB ACTIVITY RESULTS IN SIGNIFCANT LEVELS OF CAPEX The beer and pub sector as a whole is directly estimated to have spent 1.96bn on net capital investment a significant increase ( 800m) when compared to the 2013 estimate. Of the UK regions, London and the South East are estimated to have provided the greatest amount of CAPEX. This is as a result of some of the highest numbers of pubs being found in the South East, and thus high amounts of direct GVA, and above average CAPEX/GVA ratios in both regions (15.7 percent and 16.9 percent respectively). 4

9 Fig. 5. Net capital expenditure (CAPEX) in the beer and pub sector, UK regions Overall beer and pub sector Net capital expenditure ( m) South East 279 London 302 East 140 South East North 217 North East 99 Wales 77 Scotland 148 Northern Ireland 20 UK 1,960 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding THE SECTOR CONTRIBUTES SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE PUBLIC PURSE Activity in the beer and pub sector gene a significant amount of for the government. All four elements generate corporation and income /national insurance contributions (NIC). However, while the brewery element alone gene excise duty, it is only the other three elements (pub, on- and off-trade) that generate value-added (VAT). In addition, pubs generate excise duty on other drinks (an indirect ). The sector is estimated to have generated 12.62bn in total es (from the direct, indirect and induced forms) (Fig. 6). This is made up of: 1bn in corporation ; 1.54bn in income /NIC; 3.24bn in excise duty 5.2bn in VAT; 930m in excise duty on other drink (from the pub element); and 700m in business. The North and London are estimated to have generated the greatest proportions to the UK economy. 5

10 Fig. 6. Total generated by the beer and pub sector, UK regions Overall beer and pub sector Corporation /NIC Excise duty Total estimates ( m) Value added (VAT) Excise duty on other drinks Business South East ,391 London ,534 East South ,361 East , ,297 North ,612 North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK 1,000 1,540 3,240 5, ,620 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding. Summing the benefits of all four elements (breweries, pub, on-trade and off-trade) will overestimate the indirect, induced and as a result, overall impacts Total The UK beer and pub sector continues to be an important source of employment and output. Its activity can provide significant amounts of contributions, CAPEX, flexible working conditions and opportunities for young people to enter the labour market 6

11 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 ABOUT THIS STUDY Oxford Economics were commissioned in September 2016 by the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA) to update our estimates of the economic impact of the beer and pub sector in the UK. This study considers the impact of UK breweries, pubs, and the proportion of hotels, restaurants and retail dependent on the sale of beer. Our estimates of the impacts of the beer and pub sector have been developed at regional, local authority (LA) and parliamentary constituency (PC) levels across the UK. Estimates for Members of Scottish Parliament (MSP) and Welsh Parliamentary constituencies are outlined in separate reports. This study estimates the impact of the beer and pub sector using the latest available published data at the time of writing supplemented with 2015/2016 brewery and pub activity data provided by the industry (see Annex A for full details). It is not practical to present the estimates at a local level within this report. Instead, it sets out some of the key findings at a national and regional level. Estimates at a parliamentary constituency level are provided in Annex B. 1.2 REPORT STRUCTURE This report takes the following structure: Section 2: Impact of breweries: Presentation of the UK and regional estimates of the impacts of the brewery element; Section 3: Impact of pubs: Presentation of the UK and regional estimates of the impacts of the pub element; Section 4: Impact of beer sales in the rest of the on-trade: Presentation of the UK and regional estimates of the on-trade element; Section 5: Impact of beer sales in the off-trade: Presentation of the UK and regional estimates of the impacts of the off-trade element; Section 6: Impacts of the overall beer and pub sector: Presentation of the UK and regional estimates of the overall impacts of the production and selling of beer combined with the activities of pubs; Conclusion: Concluding comments on the findings; Annex A: Approach: Setting out the methodology used to produce our estimates of the local impacts; Annex B (Part 1): Local impact of the beer and pub sector at parliamentary constituency level: Provides the GVA, employment and wage estimates for every parliamentary constituency area; and Annex B (Part 2): Local impact of the beer and pub sector at parliamentary constituency level: Provides the direct employment by age group and employment status, CAPEX and total / direct estimates for every parliamentary constituency area. 7

12 2. IMPACT OF BREWERIES 2.1 UK ESTIMATES Breweries in the UK account for 18,550 direct jobs with wages of 530m and GVA 2 of 2.18bn (Fig. 7) 3. The direct impacts are sourced from BBPA and the latest available Annual Business Survey (ABS). Fig. 7. The estimated benefits from the brewery element, UK Breweries UK GVA ( m) Employment Wages ( m) Direct 2,180 18, Indirect 2,940 64,040 1,450 Induced , Total 5, ,570 2,310 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding The next step was to estimate the likely indirect benefits that arise from supply chain spending. Using 2010 UK input-output tables, we estimate that indirect GVA totals 2.94bn. Using sectoral output and productivity data, we calculate this level of activity equates to approximately 64,040 indirect jobs and 1.45bn of wages sustained through breweries supply chain spending. Furthermore, we estimate that an additional 23,000 jobs are induced through the spending patterns of those directly and indirectly employed by the breweries in the UK, with associated wages and GVA of 330m and 740m respectively (Fig. 7). As a result, we estimate that 105,570 jobs, 2.31bn of wages and 5.86bn of GVA are sustained in the UK economy from the direct, indirect and induced effects of beer breweries. 2.2 REGIONAL ESTIMATES Fig. 8 outlines the number of breweries in each UK region. The South (196) and the North (184) regions comprise the greatest number of brewers, whilst Northern Ireland has the lowest, with Gross Value Added (GVA) is the difference between the value of goods and services produced by a business or a sector, and the cost of raw materials and other inputs which are used up in production. It is essentially a measure of the value added to the services or products provided by a sector or firm. 3 A comprehensive explanation of the methodology used and level of data is provided in Annex A. 4 Brewery numbers are less than the total number registered with HMRC due to the exclusion of brewpubs, nonactive breweries, and those where the brewery details are not in the public domain. 8

13 Fig. 8. Number of breweries / brewery company premises, UK regions Number of breweries and brewing company premises South East 182 London 80 East 139 South East North 184 North East 63 Wales 82 Scotland 104 Northern Ireland 20 UK 1,480 Source: BBPA At a regional level, the has experienced a significant proportion of the GVA benefits, given the scale of direct activity in the region, a trend which was present in our last report. Direct GVA ( 400m) and total GVA ( 970m) are estimated to be notably higher than any other region in the UK (Fig. 9). The North had the second highest level of estimated direct GVA arising from the brewing of beer ( 290m), and the second highest level of total GVA ( 720m). Fig. 9. The estimated GVA benefits of the brewery element, UK regions Breweries GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced Total South East London East South East North North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK 2,180 2, ,860 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding 9

14 The ratio of indirect benefits to direct benefits differs across the regions. This arises from the purchasing patterns of the sector and the location of the supply chain (i.e. the sectoral composition of employment across local economies influences the scale of indirect and induced impacts). In theory, an area with no brewery could experience considerable indirect benefits, if for example, it was to produce much of the inputs demanded by the sector. In employment terms, the and the North have the largest estimates of direct jobs in brewery activities (Fig. 10), a result also highlighted in our previous report. Analysis of employment also reveals that despite the limited direct employment in the North East, supply chain spending from across the UK provides significant estimated indirect and induced jobs. The North East, East and Yorkshire and have experienced amongst the highest indirect and induced employment, relative to their level of direct employment in breweries. In total, we estimate five regions to employ over 10,000 people, collectively accounting for 62 percent of the total employment in the brewery element: namely the, the North, the East, Scotland and the South East. Fig. 10. The estimated employment benefits of the brewery element, UK regions Breweries Employment Direct Indirect Induced Total South East 1,750 6,250 2,390 10,390 London 1,220 3,870 1,260 6,350 East 2,100 7,190 2,650 11,940 South 1,560 5,550 2,440 9,550 3,380 10,830 3,820 18,040 East 1,120 4,450 1,630 7,200 1,640 6,880 2,220 10,740 North 2,460 7,300 2,600 12,350 North East 260 1, ,430 Wales 910 3,510 1,210 5,630 Scotland 1,820 5,240 1,880 8,950 Northern Ireland 320 1, ,990 UK 18,550 64,040 22, ,570 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding As noted in the Annex A, there is limited regional wage data for the manufacture of beer sub-sector and as such we have to use national levels ( 28,547 per annum in 2014). The estimates in Fig. 11 are therefore driven by our estimates of employment in Fig. 10. In relation to direct wages, as with direct employment, the and the North are estimated to have the highest levels, which is in line with the findings in the 2013 report. The, the North and the East account for the largest wages benefits. In reality, wages in the sector are likely to differ across regions reflecting the cost of living and the cost of doing business. As such, estimates for London 10

15 and the South East are likely to be underestimated, while figures for Northern Ireland and the North East are likely to be overestimated. Fig. 11. The estimated wage benefits of the brewery element, UK regions Breweries Wages ( m) Direct Indirect Induced Total South East London East South East North North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK 530 1, ,310 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding Of the 18,550 direct jobs in the brewing of beer sector, estimates suggest that 3,280 (17.7 percent) were taken by those under 25 years of age, 7,820 (42.2 percent) by the age group and 7,450 (40.2 percent) by those aged 45 or higher (Fig. 12). Of all regions, we estimate Wales and the South East have the greatest proportion of direct employment taken by youth (defined as those under 25 years of age), with figures of 33.0 percent and 28.6 percent respectively. In comparison, we estimate the North East had only 20 direct jobs (6.1 percent of the regional total) aged 25 years or less. 11

16 Fig. 12. Total direct employment in the brewery element by age group, UK regions Breweries Direct employment by age Under Total South East ,750 London ,220 East ,100 South , ,610 1,280 3,380 East , ,640 North 360 1,060 1,040 2,460 North East Wales Scotland ,820 Northern Ireland UK 3,280 7,820 7,450 18,550 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), Labour Force Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding In the case of breweries, the majority of direct jobs are full-time in nature. We estimate 12,690 (68.4 percent) of the total direct jobs in the UK are full-time, with 5,860 (31.6 percent) in part-time roles (Fig. 13). Regions such as London (79.5 percent), Northern Ireland (77.3 percent), and (76.9 percent) comprise the highest proportion of workers in full-time roles, compared to the North (56.8 percent) and North East (43 percent) regions where there is the lowest proportion of workers in full-time roles. Fig. 13. Total direct employment in the brewery element by employment status, UK regions Breweries Direct employment by status Full-time Part-time Total South East 1, ,750 London ,220 East 1, ,100 South 1, ,560 2,260 1,120 3,380 East ,120 1, ,640 North 1,400 1,060 2,460 North East Wales Scotland 1, ,820 Northern Ireland UK 12,690 5,860 18,550 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), Labour Force Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding 12

17 We devised local estimates of the net capital expenditure (CAPEX) by using the ratio of direct net capital expenditure to direct GVA at a regional level from the ABS across the four sub-sectors of beer and pub activity. Breweries are estimated to have spent 325m in net capital investment, with the South and South East together contributing 45 percent (Fig. 14). These regions have contributed more than the others as a result of having relatively high levels of direct GVA as well as some of the highest CAPEX/GVA ratios (54 percent and 23 percent respectively). Fig. 14. Net capital expenditure (CAPEX) in the brewery element, UK regions Breweries Net capital expenditure ( m) South East 47 London 12 East 21 South East North 24 North East 3 Wales 9 Scotland 40 Northern Ireland 10 UK 325 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics The final stage of our analysis included estimating es generated by the sector. Estimates for direct es and total es (direct, indirect and induced) 5 are both provided in Fig. 15 and Fig. 16. The brewery element is estimated to have generated 3.58bn of direct, including 170m in corporation, 170m in income /NIC and 3.24bn in excise duty (Fig. 15) 6. This rises to 4.27bn in es when the indirect and induced impacts are considered. The North region is estimated to have generated both the highest amount of direct and total es ( 628m and 705m respectively). 5 The terms direct and indirect are used in the same sense as direct employment and indirect employment rather than in the normal sense of distinguishing between a on a person or property rather than a on a transaction. 6 Excise duty total excludes that originating from residual imports. 13

18 Fig. 15. Direct generated by the brewery element, UK regions Breweries Direct estimates ( m) Corporation /NIC Excise duty Total South East London East South East North North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK ,240 3,580 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding Fig. 16. Total generated by the brewery element, UK regions Breweries Total estimates ( m) Corporation /NIC Excise duty Total South East London East South East North North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK ,240 4,270 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding 14

19 3. IMPACT OF PUBS 3.1 UK ESTIMATES According to the latest published ONS data, direct employment in pubs was 577,590, commanding direct wages of 4.8bn and direct GVA of 9.4bn (Fig. 17). Using the ABS data, average wages in the sector were 8,320, reflecting the incidence of part-time working in the sector. Fig. 17. The estimated benefits of the pub element, UK Pub UK GVA ( m) Employment Wages ( m) Direct 9, ,590 4,800 Indirect 5, ,950 2,870 Induced 2,950 89,680 1,320 Total 18, ,230 8,990 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding Using UK input-output tables we estimate that indirect GVA was 5.74bn within the supply chain of the pub sector. 7 Using sectoral productivity and wage data we calculate that this would translate into 129,950 jobs and 2.87bn of wages (Fig. 17). The spending of the direct and indirect wages will induce further jobs in the economy, particularly in the retail, hospitality and other personal services sectors. We estimate an induced impact of 89,680 jobs and 1.32bn of wages. Given productivity levels across the UK regions, this equates to a further 2.95bn of induced GVA. Overall, activity in pubs is estimated to have sustained 797,230 jobs, 8.99bn of wages and 18.13bn of GVA across the UK. 3.2 REGIONAL ESTIMATES Fig. 18 indicates the regional location of the pubs throughout the UK. The South East (6,255) and the North (5,814) contain the highest number of pubs. Northern Ireland contains the lowest, with 1,309 pubs distributed throughout the region. It should be noted however, that while the contains 4,401 pubs, four of the larger pub operators in the UK are located in the region, which will impact on the results later in this section. 7 It is worth noting that the supply chain (and therefore the indirect impacts) of the pub, on- and off-trade elements contain a proportion of the brewery element and its supply chain. As such the indirect (and as a result induced) impacts for all four elements (for GVA, employment, wages) cannot simply be summed, as this will mean double counting resulting in the overall impacts being overestimated. Please refer to Section 6.1 or Annex A to find out how the total impacts of the beer and pub sector were devised. 15

20 Fig. 18. Number of pubs, UK regions Number of pubs South East 6,255 London 3,895 East 4,118 South 5,012 4,401 East 3,991 4,639 North 5,814 North East 2,108 Wales 3,248 Scotland 4,803 Northern Ireland 1,309 UK 49,593 Source: BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: Active in September 2016 As shown in Fig. 19, the number of pubs per 10,000 people was highest in Wales (10.5) and the South (9.2); and lowest in the East (6.8) and London (4.6) Fig. 19. Pubs per 10,000 population, UK regions London, the and the South East are estimated to have produced the highest levels of direct GVA from the pub sector (Fig. 21). However, at a regional level, GVA, employment and wage multipliers (which measure the scale of indirect and induced impacts to direct activity by dividing total impact by direct impact for each variable) associated with the pub element 16

21 are more similar across regions than for the brewery element. This is because brewery activity tends to be concentrated in certain locations their supply chains are likely to be more restricted to locations offerings access to brewery inputs (hops and barley). Generally, these findings reflect the share of the UK population. As Fig. 20 shows, only has a significantly higher share of direct GVA relative to its population size. An explanation for the findings below can be found in estimated regional productivity differences. The ( 26,900) has the highest level of direct productivity (defined as GVA per worker) in the pub sector, followed by London ( 26,400). As mentioned previously, four of the larger pub operators in the UK (Enterprise Inns head office, Mitchells and Butlers, Punch Taverns and Greene King) are based in the, which is likely to boost the direct GVA and productivity for the area. This trend was also highlighted in our previous reports. Fig. 20. Percentage point difference between share of direct GVA in the pub sector and the share of UK population, UK regions London South North South East North East East Scotland Wales Northern Ireland East -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Percentage point difference Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment, BBPA and Oxford Economics Through supply chain expenditure, we estimate that London, the South East and the have experienced significant indirect GVA benefits (partly as a result of the sectoral employment composition of their local economies). It therefore follows that these regions have experienced the highest levels of induced GVA, and, subsequently, total GVA ( 2.73bn, 2.55bn and 2.39bn respectively). These findings are broadly in line with those demonstrated in the 2013 report. 17

22 Fig. 21. The estimated GVA benefits of the pub element, UK region Pub GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced Total South East 1, ,550 London 1, ,730 East ,510 South ,600 1, ,390 East , ,370 North 1, ,920 North East Wales Scotland ,280 Northern Ireland UK 9,440 5,740 2,940 18,130 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding This report update shows that the South East and the North have the highest estimates of direct employment in pubs (Fig. 22). In comparison to last year s findings, direct employment in the North improved significantly while employment in the East and North East fell. BRES employment data for 2014 suggests there have been significant changes in regional employment in the pubs sector compared to the 2013 figures. We have been informed by ONS that the large regional employment differences are in part due to increased sample variance in BRES caused by some large employers with multi public houses reporting their employment in different locations. The 2014 employment figures remain broadly in line with population shares, with the exception of the South East, which had a relatively high share of pub employment in comparison to population size, whereas London was more underrepresented. As noted previously, indirect and induced multipliers are similar across the UK regions; this is particularly the case for employment multipliers, which tend to be slightly more stable in nature than GVA multipliers (except in the case of breweries). The South East, North and South had the greatest estimated levels of total employment in the pub element, at 121,810, 95,200 and 82,040 respectively, closely followed by the East (Fig. 22). 18

23 Fig. 22. The estimated employment benefits of the pub element, UK regions Pub Employment Direct Indirect Induced Total South East 93,280 16,130 12, ,810 London 55,640 13,140 9,550 78,340 East 60,930 12,810 8,000 81,740 South 60,310 11,710 10,020 82,040 50,200 18,100 10,380 78,690 East 34,650 9,520 6,570 50,740 55,370 12,730 7,590 75,690 North 72,600 12,750 9,860 95,200 North East 19,100 5,930 3,820 28,850 Wales 31,060 5,820 3,840 40,720 Scotland 34,230 8,770 6,070 49,070 Northern Ireland 10,230 2,530 1,570 14,330 UK 577, ,950 89, ,230 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding Given relative regional wages, London and the South East have the highest level of direct wages in the pub sector, a result also cited in the 2013 report. Considering indirect and induced benefits, both regions had significantly higher total levels of wages than all other regions (Fig. 23). Fig. 23. The estimated wage benefits of the pub element, UK regions Pub Wages ( m) Direct Indirect Induced Total South East ,260 London ,330 East South East North North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK 4,800 2,870 1,320 8,990 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding Of the 577,590 direct jobs in pubs throughout the UK, estimates suggest that almost half are taken by people under 25 years of age (252,890 or 43.8 percent). This is significant because on average, 36 percent of total jobseeker claimant 19

24 on-flows (those starting to claim unemployment benefits) since 2008 have been made up of those in the 24 and under age group. 8 By comparison, 186,840 (32.3 percent) of the direct jobs fall into the group while 137,860 (23.9 percent) are taken by those aged 45 and over (Fig. 24). Of the UK regions, the South East and Yorkshire & and the had the highest levels of direct employment in the under 25 age category (50.9 percent and 48.1 percent respectively). Fig. 24. Total direct employment in the pub element by age group, UK regions Pub Direct employment by age Under Total South East 47,440 28,500 17,330 93,280 London 20,230 22,390 13,020 55,640 East 25,020 19,500 16,420 60,930 South 27,220 17,760 15,330 60,310 23,650 14,910 11,650 50,200 East 15,360 11,070 8,230 34,650 26,660 17,330 11,390 55,370 North 30,670 24,160 17,770 72,600 North East 7,890 5,210 5,990 19,100 Wales 12,470 10,770 7,820 31,060 Scotland 13,740 11,350 9,150 34,230 Northern Ireland 2,550 3,900 3,780 10,230 UK 252, , , ,590 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), Labour Force Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding Analysis of the direct employment in the pub element by employment status indicates a high incidence of part-time workers. Our estimates in Fig. 25 show that 241,590 or 41.8 percent of the 577,590 jobs in the UK were full-time, compared to 336,000 (or 58.2 percent) which were part-time roles. Of the 12 UK regions, the North East was estimated to have the highest proportion of part-time workers at 65.1 percent. All regions, apart from Northern Ireland, were estimated to have more part-time than full-time workers in the pub element. 8 Under 25 year olds share of UK total on-flow claimants between November 2008 and September 2016 sourced from ONS (NOMIS) 20

25 Fig. 25. Total direct employment in the pub element by employment status, UK regions Pub Direct employment by status Full-time Part-time Total South East 41,940 51,340 93,280 London 27,780 27,860 55,640 East 28,930 32,000 60,930 South 21,770 38,540 60,310 20,240 29,960 50,200 East 14,290 20,360 34,650 19,800 35,570 55,370 North 26,370 46,230 72,600 North East 6,670 12,430 19,100 Wales 13,360 17,700 31,060 Scotland 14,980 19,250 34,230 Northern Ireland 5,460 4,760 10,230 UK 241, , ,590 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), Labour Force Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding Pubs are estimated to have spent 1.47bn in net capital expenditure, with London and the South East contributing the greatest share (Fig. 26). This is a significant increase from the previous year s finding and could reflect increasing confidence in the sub-sector. The Midland s net capital expenditure has improved marginally from last year but remains comparatively low given the region has the second highest pub direct GVA level. The rational for the Midland s relatively low net capital expenditure level was due to the region s CAPEX/GVA ratio of only 6.8 percent. (Fig. 26). Fig. 26. Net capital expenditure (CAPEX) in the pub element, UK regions Pub Net capital expenditure ( m) South East 206 London 251 East 110 South East North 171 North East 91 Wales 62 Scotland 97 Northern Ireland 8 UK 1,474 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics 21

26 Pub The pub element is estimated to have generated 4.61bn of direct, made up of 280m in corporation, 200m in income /NIC, 3.44bn in VAT and 700m in business (Fig. 27). After factoring in indirect and induced es 9, pubs are estimated to have generated 7.45bn of total, including 820m in corporation, 1.22bn in income /NIC, 3.78bn in VAT, 930m in excise duty on other drinks and 700m in business (Fig. 27). The South East and the North are the regions that have generated the greatest amounts of direct es, as a result of their high levels of activity across the pub element. The total estimate suggests that for every pound of pub sales, almost 30p eventually goes towards the public accounts. Fig. 27. Direct generated by the pub element, UK regions Direct estimates ( m) Corporation /NIC Value added (VAT) Business Total South East London East South East North North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK , ,610 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding 9 Again, it is worth noting that the supply chain of the pub, on- and off-trade elements contain a proportion of the brewery element and its supply chain. As such the indirect (and thus induced) impacts for all four elements cannot be summed, as this will mean double counting resulting in the overall impacts being overestimated. Section 6.1 and Annex A both explain how the total impacts of the beer and pub sector were devised. 22

27 Fig. 28. Total generated by the pub element, UK regions Pub Corporation /NIC Total estimates ( m) Value added (VAT) Excise duty on other drinks Business South East London East South East North North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK 820 1,220 3, ,450 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding Total 23

28 4. IMPACT OF BEER SALES IN THE REST OF THE ON-TRADE SECTOR 4.1 UK ESTIMATES The estimates in this section use beer production and sales volumes from the BBPA Statistical Handbook 2015 and employment data from the ONS. Data from the Statistical Handbook reveals that 4.2 percent of total on-trade beer sales are made in hotels while 2.3 percent are made in restaurants. Given the price and volume of beer in 2014, these beer sales were worth an estimated 865m, or 1.5 percent of the total sector turnover. In addition, 5.6 percent of total beer sales in the UK were made in sports clubs. This accounts for 520m or 2.8 percent of turnover in the Sports activities sub-sector of the economy. Scaling this performance data, we estimated that on-trade beer sales directly provided 32,780 jobs, 400m of wages and 720m of GVA in the UK (Fig. 29). Fig. 29. The estimated benefits of the beer related on-trade element (excluding pubs), UK On-trade (excluding pubs) UK GVA ( m) Employment Wages ( m) Direct , Indirect 430 9, Induced 230 6, Total 1,380 48, Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding We estimate that through supply chain spending this level of activity would sustain or create a further 9,260 jobs with 210m of wages and 430m of GVA. Furthermore, through the spending of direct and indirect earnings, an additional 6,790 induced jobs could be sustained in the wider economy, commanding 100m of wages and creating 230m of induced GVA. Overall, the sale of beer in the on-trade (excluding pubs) across the UK was estimated to sustain 48,820 jobs, 720m of wages and 1,380m of GVA. 4.2 REGIONAL ESTIMATES Regional multipliers for the rest of the on-trade element (excluding pubs) are broadly consistent, and, as with pubs, notably lower than those in the brewery element (e.g. the GVA multipliers range from 1.8 to 2.3). Estimated direct GVA in the remaining on-trade element, originating from the sale of beer, reflects regional population shares, with one major outlier. London contains 13.2 percent of the UK population, yet it accounts for 30 percent of the UK direct GVA see Fig. 30. This mirrors wider performance trends in the

29 ABS where London is the undisputed leader in the hospitality sub-sectors with the highest level of GVA, turnover, employment, wages, and supply chain purchases. Consequently, it experienced the highest level of indirect and induced benefits and, as a result, by far the largest share of total GVA of any region at 380m (Fig. 30). This was also the case in the 2012 ABS, therefore this trend for London has been carried forward and strengthened from our previous report. Fig. 30. The estimated GVA benefits of the beer related on-trade element (excluding pubs), UK regions On-trade (excluding pubs) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced Total South East London East South East North North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK ,380 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding Employment multipliers for the rest of the on-trade (excluding pubs) sector ranged from 1.4 to 1.6 and were lower and more consistent than the GVA multipliers (ranging from 1.8 to 2.3). London again provides the largest level of direct employment (6,110 jobs) and total employment (9,090 jobs), closely followed by the South East and the North (Fig. 31); the same relative rankings discussed in the 2013 report. 25

30 Fig. 31. The estimated employment benefits of the beer related on-trade element (excluding pubs), UK regions On-trade (excluding pubs) Employment Direct Indirect Induced Total South East 4,790 1, ,860 London 6,110 1,640 1,330 9,090 East 2, ,100 South 2, ,450 2, ,380 East 2, ,960 2, ,490 North 3, ,350 North East 1, ,640 Wales 1, ,850 Scotland 3, ,550 Northern Ireland ,100 UK 32,780 9,260 6,790 48,820 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding Average wages in the sector reflect the relatively high incidences of part-time working arrangements and shift work. At a regional level, average direct wages range from 7,740 ( ) to 18,000 (London). The UK average direct wage for the on-trade element is 12,300. The differences across regions mirror differences in the cost of living and cost of doing business. Fig. 32. The estimated wage benefits of the beer related on-trade element (excluding pubs), UK regions On-trade (excluding pubs) Wages ( m) Direct Indirect Induced Total South East London East South East North North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding 26

31 The distribution of direct jobs across the age groups for the beer related ontrade element is slightly more even than the pub sector, though, as with pubs, a significant proportion of direct jobs were held by the younger age groups. Of the 32,780 direct jobs across the UK, almost one third (10,150) were taken by those aged under 25 (Fig. 33). The North directly employed 1,310 people in this group or 37.1 percent of its total, the largest proportion of any region. London employed the lowest proportion with 17.8 percent - while this is surprising, it suggests that hospitality firms in the capital prefer to employ more experienced staff. Fig. 33. Total direct employment of the beer related on-trade element (excluding pubs) by age group, UK regions On-trade (excluding pubs) Direct employment by age Under Total South East 1,600 1,920 1,270 4,790 London 1,090 3,510 1,520 6,110 East ,650 South 1,040 1, , ,080 East , ,330 North 1,310 1, ,530 North East ,060 Wales ,290 Scotland 1,090 1, ,240 Northern Ireland UK 10,150 13,630 9,010 32,780 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), Labour Force Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding A breakdown of the direct employment in the beer related on-trade element by status suggests a broadly even mix of full- and part-time jobs. It is estimated that seven of the twelve UK regions have more full-time than part-time direct jobs (Fig. 34). London had the highest proportion of full-time jobs (62.3 percent of total) while the North East had the highest proportion of part-time jobs (55.8 percent). 27

32 Fig. 34. Total direct employment of the beer related on-trade element (excluding pubs) by employment status, UK regions On-trade (excluding pubs) Direct employment by status Full-time Part-time Total South East 2,690 2,100 4,790 London 3,810 2,310 6,110 East 1,370 1,280 2,650 South 1,560 1,420 2,970 1,060 1,020 2,080 East 990 1,010 2,000 1,130 1,200 2,330 North 1,750 1,780 3,530 North East ,060 Wales ,290 Scotland 1,680 1,560 3,240 Northern Ireland UK 17,520 15,260 32,780 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), Labour Force Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding Hotels, restaurants and sports clubs are estimated to have contributed 94m in net capital expenditure. Fig. 35 indicates that the South East, London and the North have contributed the greatest share 54 percent of the total between them. Fig. 35. Net capital expenditure (CAPEX) of the beer related on-trade element (excluding pubs), UK regions On-trade (excluding pubs) Net capital expenditure ( m) South East 13 London 26 East 5 South 7 9 East 5 4 North 13 North East 3 Wales 3 Scotland 6 Northern Ireland 1 UK 94 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics The beer related on-trade sub-sector (excluding pubs) is estimated to have generated 658m through direct es. This figure is made up of three categories; corporation, income /NIC and VAT, which are disaggregated in Fig. 36. In terms of total es, the beer related on-trade is estimated to have 28

33 On-trade (excluding pubs) generated 806m, made up of 79m in corporation, 134m in income /NIC and 593m in VAT (Fig. 37). In line with the results so far in this section, the South East, London and the North contribute over 55 percent of the total UK figure, a reflection of how developed the hospitality sector is in each of these three regions (Fig. 37). Fig. 36. Direct generated by the beer related on-trade element (excluding pubs), UK regions Direct estimates ( m) Corporation /NIC Value added (VAT) Total South East London East South East North North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding On-trade (excluding pubs) Fig. 37. Total generated by the beer related on-trade element (excluding pubs), UK regions Total estimates ( m) Corporation /NIC Value added (VAT) Total South East London East South East North North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding 29

34 5. IMPACT OF BEER SALES IN THE OFF-TRADE SECTOR 5.1 UK ESTIMATES The estimates in this section use volumes data from the BBPA Statistical Handbook 2015 and employment data from the ONS. Using information from the Statistical Handbook, we found that 50 percent of beer consumption in 2014 was distributed through the off-trade channel. This share has risen almost every year since These trends have led to off-trade beer sales overtaking on-trade sales for the first time in 2015, as shown in Fig. 38. Fig. 38. Total UK beer sales for the on- and off-trade elements, Percentage of total UK beer sales 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% On-trade Off trade Source: BBPA Using the average price of beer, consumer spending through the off-trade equates to 3.9bn, or 0.3 percent of overall turnover in the retail and wholesale sector. By combining this data with ONS published data, we estimate that the beer related off-trade element directly provides 12,730 jobs, 225m of wages and 474m of GVA across the UK (Fig. 39). Fig. 39. The estimated benefits of the beer related off-trade element, UK Off-trade UK GVA ( m) Employment Wages ( m) Direct , Indirect 284 5, Induced 138 4, Total , Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding 30

35 Using UK input-output tables, the indirect GVA of the off-trade s supply chain is estimated to be 284m. Given sectoral productivity levels, this level of indirect GVA translates into 5,890 jobs in the off-trade element s supply chain, sustaining wages of 139m (Fig. 39). Again, the spending of both the direct and indirect wages will induce further jobs in the economy. We have estimated this impact at 4,060 jobs and 61m of wages. Given productivity levels across the UK regions, this equates to a further 138m of induced GVA. Overall, beer sales in the off-trade are estimated to sustain 22,690 jobs, 430m of wages and 900m of GVA in the UK. 5.2 REGIONAL ESTIMATES Estimated direct GVA in the beer related off-trade sub-sector again broadly reflects regional population shares, with London, as a result of its higher cost of doing business and higher cost of living, being the only notable outlier (cited in the 2013 report). While the region provides 13.2 percent of the UK population, it is estimated that it provides 19.6 percent of the UK s direct GVA. Again, this reflects the wider performance trends in the 2014 ABS. The South East and the North rank in second and third place in terms of both direct and total GVA (Fig. 40). East had the highest GVA multiplier of any region, recorded at 1.98 (meaning that for every 1m of direct GVA produced in the off-trade, 0.98m of additional GVA is created in the wider economy through indirect and induced spending). Fig. 40. The estimated GVA benefits of the beer related off-trade element, UK regions Off-trade GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced Total South East London East South East North North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding Fig. 41 shows the direct, indirect and induced employment impacts for the 12 UK regions from beer sales in the off-trade. Again, the employment multipliers remain broadly consistent though higher than those in the on-trade elements. 31

36 The same three regions that provide the largest amounts of direct and total GVA also provide the greatest amounts of direct and total employment London, the South East and the North. Fig. 41. The estimated employment benefits of the beer related off-trade element, UK regions Off-trade Employment Direct Indirect Induced Total South East 1, ,920 London 1, ,180 East 1, ,150 South 1, ,950 1, ,930 East , ,770 North 1, ,570 North East Wales Scotland 1, ,960 Northern Ireland UK 12,730 5,890 4,060 22,690 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding Earnings (Fig. 42) from the sector reflect the employment numbers and regional wage differentials. Intuitively, London and the South East have the greatest level of direct and overall wages. Indeed, the average wage in the subsector in London ( 23,250) was significantly higher than in Wales the lowest of the regions, where the average worker earnt 14,710. It should be noted that the wage multipliers for all regions are higher than those for employment and GVA, because workers in the off-trade retail sector typically earn low wages, at least relative to the other sectors where the indirect and induced jobs are created (hospitality and other personal services). 32

37 Fig. 42. The estimated wage benefits of the beer related off-trade element, UK regions Off-trade Wages ( m) Direct Indirect Induced Total South East London East South East North North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding Of the 12,730 direct jobs throughout the UK, 2,560 (20.1 percent) fell into the under 25 age group, 5,020 (39.4 percent) fell into the age group and 5,150 (40.5 percent) fell into the 45 and over age group (Fig. 43). Wales (26.1 percent) and Scotland (26.0 percent) had the highest relative proportions in the youngest age group. Fig. 43. Total direct employment of the beer related off-trade element by age group, UK regions Off-trade Direct employment by age Under Total South East ,720 London ,790 East ,200 South , ,100 East North ,420 North East Wales Scotland ,080 Northern Ireland UK 2,560 5,020 5,150 12,730 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), Labour Force Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding A breakdown of the direct jobs by status reveals that 6,940 (54.5 percent) were full-time compared to 5,790 (45.5 percent) which were part-time. At a regional 33

38 level, East (77.3 percent) and the East (75.0 percent) had the highest proportions of their total direct employment taken up by full-time jobs a marked difference from, where just 32 percent of total jobs were full-time in nature (Fig. 44). This is consistent with the age profile for the area suggesting a large number of young people / students work in the off-trade element. Fig. 44. Total direct employment of the beer related off-trade element by employment status, UK regions Off-trade Direct employment by status Full-time Part-time Total South East ,720 London ,790 East ,200 South , ,100 East North ,420 North East Wales Scotland ,080 Northern Ireland UK 6,940 5,790 12,730 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), Labour Force Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding As a result of beer sales in the off-trade retail sector, net capital expenditure of 71m is estimated to have been created. Fig. 45 indicates that London has contributed the greatest share ( 14m). Northern Ireland contributed the lowest share (just 1.6m). 34

39 Fig. 45. Net capital expenditure (CAPEX) of the beer related off-trade element, UK regions Off-trade Net capital expenditure ( m) South East 13 London 14 East 4 South 4 3 East 3 9 North 10 North East 2 Wales 2 Scotland 5 Northern Ireland 2 UK 71 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Off-trade The beer related off-trade element is estimated to have generated 890m of direct, made up of 30m in corporation, 52m in income /NIC and 810m in VAT (Fig. 46). Accounting for indirect and induced es, the element is estimated to have generated 990m of total, including 56m in corporation, 103m in income /NIC and 830m in VAT (Fig. 47). London and the South East generated the greatest amount of, as a result of having the greatest level of activity across the off-trade element. Fig. 46. Direct generated by the beer related off-trade element, UK regions Direct estimates ( m) Corporation /NIC Value added (VAT) Total South East London East South East North North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding 35

40 Off-trade Fig. 47. Total generated by the beer related off-trade element, UK regions Total estimates ( m) Corporation /NIC Value added (VAT) Total South East London East South East North North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding 36

41 6. IMPACT OF THE OVERALL BEER AND PUB SECTOR 6.1 INTRODUCTION This section takes the estimates outlined in the preceding sections and calculates the total economic impact arising from the beer and pub sector in the UK and across its regions. As discussed earlier, simply summing the respective benefits of all four elements (breweries, pub, on-trade and off-trade) will overestimate the indirect, induced and as a result, overall impacts. This is because the supply chains of the pub, on- and off-trade elements contain a proportion of the brewery element and its supply chain, therefore adding everything together would result in double counting some of the impacts. As such, we adopted the approach below to calculate the total impacts for GVA, employment, wages and : Direct impacts: Calculated by summing the direct impacts from the four elements of activity for GVA, employment, wages and. Indirect impacts: For GVA, employment and wages, total indirect impacts are calculated by summing the indirect impacts of pub, the rest of the on-trade and the off-trade, and 12.7 percent of the indirect impacts from the breweries (as information taken from the BBPA Statistical Handbook 2015 suggests exports form 12.7 percent of total production). The remainder of the brewery element s indirect impacts will already be accounted for in the indirect impacts from the other 3 elements; and For, total indirect estimates are calculated by summing the indirect estimates of the pub, on- and off-trade elements, 12.7 percent of the breweries' VAT and corporation (as these two forms are also generated by the other 3 elements) but all of the breweries' excise duty (as breweries alone generate this form of and thus it won't be double counted). The remainder of the breweries' indirect impacts will already be accounted for in the indirect impacts from the other 3 elements. Induced impacts: For GVA, employment and wages, total induced impacts are calculated by summing the induced impacts of pub, the rest of the on-trade and the off-trade, and 12.7 percent of the indirect impacts from the breweries (as information taken from the BBPA Statistical Handbook 2015 suggests exports form 12.7 percent of total production). The remainder of the brewery element s induced impacts will already be accounted for in the induced impacts from the other 3 elements; and For, total induced estimates are calculated by summing the induced estimates of the pub, on- and off-trade elements, 12.7 percent of the breweries' VAT and corporation (as these two forms are also 37

42 generated by the other 3 elements) but all of the breweries' excise duty (as breweries alone generate this form of and thus it won't be double counted). The remainder of the breweries' induced impacts will already be accounted for in the induced impacts from the other 3 elements. 6.2 UK ESTIMATES We estimate that beer and pub activity in the UK produced total direct impacts of 641,650 jobs with 5.96bn of associated wages and 12.82bn of GVA. Through supply chain spending, beer and pub activity is estimated to create 153,250 additional indirect jobs, 3.41bn of wages and 6.84bn of GVA. This level of indirect benefits combines with our direct estimates to induce a further 103,460 jobs, 1.52bn of wages and 3.41bn of GVA in the wider economy. Fig. 48. The estimated benefits of the beer and pub sector, UK Overall beer and pub sector UK GVA ( m) Employment Wages ( m) Direct 12, ,650 5,960 Indirect 6, ,250 3,410 Induced 3, ,460 1,520 Total 23, ,350 10,890 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding Overall, beer and pub activity is estimated to have sustained 898,350 jobs, 10.9bn of wages and 23.1bn of GVA across the UK economy from direct, indirect and induced effects. 6.3 REGIONAL ESTIMATES Fig. 49 presents our regional multipliers for GVA, employment and wages. The GVA multipliers range from 1.7 in the to 1.9 in Northern Ireland. This means that our estimates of total direct, indirect and induced GVA impacts in Northern Ireland are almost double those of its direct impacts. The employment multipliers as has been the case for the individual elements of beer and pub activity (with the exception of breweries) are smaller and slightly less volatile than the GVA multipliers. The employment multipliers range from 1.3 in the South East to 1.6 in the. This means that for every 1 direct job created in the, 0.6 jobs are created through indirect or induced effects. The wage multipliers tend to follow a similar trend to the GVA multipliers. As with employment, the has the highest wage multiplier of

43 Fig. 49. GVA, employment and wages multipliers, UK regions Overall beer and pub sector Multiplier GVA ( m) Employment Wages ( m) South East London East South East North North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics The pub sub-sector was easily the largest of the four that make up the overall beer and pub sector and as such, regional performance in the pub element drives overall performance. Accordingly, overall beer and pub activity was found to be most concentrated in London, the and the South East; these three regions are estimated to have produced the highest levels of direct GVA (Fig. 51 to follow). These findings more or less reflect the share of the UK population, as shown in Fig. 50, with one notable exception the - which had a significantly higher share of direct GVA than its population size would suggest might be expected (a 5.4 percentage point difference). This is as a result of the having the highest level of direct productivity in the pub element ( 26,900) of any region, including London. As noted this is mainly due to the region having four of the larger pub operators in the UK (Enterprise Inns head office, Mitchells and Butlers, Punch Taverns and Spirit). 39

44 Fig. 50. Percentage point difference between share of direct GVA from the beer and pub sector and share of UK population, UK regions London North South Scotland North East South East East East Wales Northern Ireland -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Percentage point difference Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Through supply chain and induced expenditure, we estimate that London ( 3.46bn) and the South East ( 3.12bn) experienced the greatest levels of total GVA, as a result of the sectoral employment composition of their local economies. While the had the lowest GVA multiplier of any region, its high level of direct GVA meant it again ranked among the best performing regions in terms of total GVA as shown in Fig. 51. Fig. 51. The estimated GVA benefits of the beer and pub sector, UK regions Overall beer and pub sector GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced Total South East 1, ,120 London 1,920 1, ,460 East 1, ,990 South 1, ,000 1, ,020 East , ,740 North 1, ,520 North East Wales Scotland ,730 Northern Ireland UK 12,820 6,840 3,410 23,060 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding As Fig. 52 shows, the South East was estimated to provide the greatest proportion of direct and total job benefits, followed by the North. These 40

45 two regions ranked in first and fourth place respectively in our previous report. Again the findings are broadly in line with population shares although due to a large variation in published regional job numbers in pubs, the North has a greater share of employment when compared to the 2013 report. Fig. 52. The estimated employment benefits of the beer and pub sector, UK regions Overall beer and pub sector Employment Direct Indirect Induced Total South East 101,540 18,850 14, ,440 London 64,760 16,070 11,650 92,480 East 66,870 15,120 9,350 91,340 South 65,920 13,720 11,370 91,020 56,760 20,760 11,730 89,240 East 38,640 11,080 7,440 57,160 60,330 14,800 8,630 83,750 North 80,010 15,310 11, ,830 North East 20,960 6,770 4,270 32,000 Wales 33,830 6,860 4,370 45,060 Scotland 40,380 10,750 7,190 58,320 Northern Ireland 11,650 3,150 1,900 16,710 UK 641, , , ,350 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding As is the case with the pub, on-trade and off-trade sub-sectors, London and the South East commanded the highest levels of direct and total wages in the overall beer and pub sector. This reflects not only activity in the sector, but the cost of living and cost of doing business in London and the South East. In total, these two regions provided 1.64bn and 1.50bn in wages respectively (Fig. 53). Fig. 53. The estimated wages benefits of the beer and pub sector, UK regions Overall beer and pub sector Wages ( m) Direct Indirect Induced Total South East ,500 London ,640 East South ,210 East North ,160 North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK 5,960 3,410 1,520 10,890 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding 41

46 UK estimates indicate that of the 641,650 direct jobs in the beer and pub sector, 268,850 (41.9 percent) were taken by those under 25 years of age (Fig. 54). There was a greater concentration of jobs in this lowest age group than in the last four (35+ year of age) combined. This is as a result of the pub element (the largest of the four elements), which allows the flexibility to work on a parttime basis. Of the UK regions, the South East, Yorkshire & the and the had the greatest proportions of young people employed in the sector (49.2 percent, 46.1 percent and 44.1 percent respectively in the Under 25 category). Fig. 54. Total direct employment of the beer and pub sector by age group, UK regions Overall beer and pub sector Direct employment by age Under Total South East 49,950 31,640 19, ,540 London 22,010 27,160 15,590 64,760 East 26,670 21,670 18,530 66,870 South 28,500 20,020 17,410 65,920 25,010 17,790 13,950 56,760 East 16,300 12,580 9,770 38,640 27,800 19,430 13,100 60,330 North 32,610 27,050 20,340 80,010 North East 8,310 5,960 6,680 20,960 Wales 13,370 11,700 8,760 33,830 Scotland 15,410 13,790 11,180 40,380 Northern Ireland 2,900 4,530 4,220 11,650 UK 268, , , ,650 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), Labour Force Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding An analysis of the direct employment in the beer and pub sector by employment status (i.e. whether the job is full or part-time) indicates the high incidence of part-time workers. From Fig. 55, it is estimated that 278,750 (43.4%) of the 641,650 direct jobs in the UK were full-time, compared to 362,900 (56.6%) part-time roles. Again, this is largely attributable to the pub element, which allows the flexibility to work on a part-time basis. The North East is estimated to have the highest proportion of part-time workers (64 percent); only Northern Ireland and London were estimated to have more fulltime than part-time workers. 42

47 Fig. 55. Total direct employment of the beer and pub sector by employment status, UK regions Overall beer and pub sector Direct employment by status Full-time Part-time Total South East 46,600 54, ,540 London 33,540 31,220 64,760 East 32,620 34,260 66,870 South 24,900 41,020 65,920 24,160 32,590 56,760 East 16,670 21,980 38,640 22,500 37,820 60,330 North 30,340 49,670 80,010 North East 7,550 13,410 20,960 Wales 14,910 18,920 33,830 Scotland 18,600 21,790 40,380 Northern Ireland 6,350 5,300 11,650 UK 278, , ,650 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), Labour Force Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding Using the ratio of direct CAPEX to GVA at a regional level from the latest ABS, estimates suggest the beer and pub sector generated 1.96bn of net capital expenditure (Fig. 56). London and the South East are estimated to have provided the greatest amount of CAPEX. This is as a result of some of the highest numbers of pubs being found in the South East, and thus high amounts of direct GVA, and above average CAPEX/GVA ratios in both regions (15.7 percent and 16.9 percent respectively). Fig. 56. Net capital expenditure (CAPEX) of the beer and pub sector, UK regions Overall beer and pub sector Net capital expenditure ( m) South East 279 London 302 East 140 South East North 217 North East 99 Wales 77 Scotland 148 Northern Ireland 20 UK 1,960 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding 43

48 Activity in the beer and pub sector gene a significant amount of for the government. The beer and pub sector is estimated to have generated a total of 9.74bn through direct es (Fig. 57), including 520m in corporation, 470m in income / NIC, 3.24bn in excise duty, 4.8bn in VAT and 700m in business. After accounting for indirect and induced es, it is estimated that the beer and pub sector generated 12.62bn of total es, made up of 1bn in corporation, 1.54bn in income / NIC, 3.24bn in excise duty, 5.2bn in VAT, 930m in excise duty on other drinks and 700m in business (Fig. 58). The North and London are estimated to have generated the greatest amounts of direct and total es as a result of them having amongst the highest levels of activity across the sector as a whole. Fig. 57. Direct generated by the beer and pub sector, UK regions Overall beer and pub sector Corporation /NIC Direct estimates ( m) Excise duty Value added (VAT) Business South East London ,121 East South ,068 East ,062 North ,323 North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK ,240 4, ,740 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding Total 44

49 Fig. 58. Total generated by the beer and pub sector, UK regions Overall beer and pub sector Corporation /NIC Excise duty Total estimates ( m) Value added (VAT) Excise duty on other drinks Business South East ,391 London ,534 East South ,361 East , ,297 North ,612 North East Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK 1,000 1,540 3,240 5, ,620 Source: Annual Business Survey (ONS), NI Census of Employment (NI Department of the Economy), BBPA and Oxford Economics Note: May not add to totals due to rounding. Summing the benefits of all four element (breweries, pub, on-trade and off-trade) will overestimate the indirect, induced and as a result, overall impacts Total The UK beer and pub sector continues to be an important source of employment and output. Its activity can provide significant amounts of contribution, CAPEX, flexible working conditions and opportunities for young people to enter the labour market. 45

50 7. CONCLUSIONS 7.1 BEER AND PUB ACTIVITY PROVIDES SIGNIFICANT BENEFITS It is clear that activity in the brewing of beer and subsequent sale through on-trade and off-trade channels provides significant economic benefits to the national economy. Overall the beer and pub sector is estimated to have sustained 898,350 jobs, 10.9bn of wages and 23.1bn of GVA across the UK from direct, indirect and induced effects. To put this in context GVA from the UK beer and pub sector is worth 70% of the entire Northern Ireland economy 641,650 jobs were provided directly by the sector. Just under half of these (268,850 or 42 percent) were taken by those aged under 25, and 362,900 (56.6 percent) were estimated to be part-time. Beer and pub activity is estimated to have generated 1.96bn of net capital expenditure in 2014, 9.7bn of direct and 12.6bn of total to the UK economy. 7.2 BREWING ACTIVITY PORVIDES THE GREATEST SUPPLY CHAIN BENEFITS Given the capital intensity of the brewing sector, output per head is relatively high. As a result, the indirect and subsequent induced impacts are subject to relatively strong multipliers. The brewing element is estimated to provide benefits of the following magnitude: 18,550 direct jobs and 530m of wages, producing 2.18bn of GVA; 64,040 indirect jobs and 1.45bn of wages, producing 2.94bn of GVA; and 22,980 induced jobs and 330m of wages, producing 740m of GVA. In total, activity in breweries has been estimated to have sustained 105,570 jobs, 2.31bn of wages and 5.86bn of GVA across the UK. 7.3 THE PUB ELEMENT IN THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR The lower average wage figure in the pub element is a reflection of the high proportion of part-time working arrangements. Output per head in pubs is relatively low and therefore the indirect and induced multipliers, though important, are below those of the brewing element. Accordingly, our analysis shows that the economic impact of the pub element is of the following magnitude: 577,590 direct jobs and 4.8bn of wages, producing 9.44bn of GVA; 129,950 indirect jobs and 2.87bn of wages, producing 5.74bn of GVA; and 89,680 induced jobs and 1.32bn of wages, producing 2.95bn of GVA. 46

51 In total, activity in the pub sector has been estimated to have sustained 797,230 jobs, 8.99bn of wages and 18.13bn of GVA across the UK. 7.4 NOTABLE BEER SALES ACTIVITY IN THE REST OF THE ON-TRADE Furthermore, our analysis shows that the economic impact of beer sales in the rest of the on-trade sector is of the following magnitude: 32,780 direct jobs and 400m of wages, producing 720m of GVA; 9,260 indirect jobs and 210m of wages, producing 430m of GVA; and 6,790 induced jobs and 100m of wages, producing 230m of GVA. Overall, the selling of beer in the on-trade (excluding pubs) is estimated to sustain 48,820 jobs with 720m of wages and 1.38bn of GVA across the UK. 7.5 AS WELL AS IN THE OFF-TRADE Finally, our analysis shows that the economic impact of beer related off-trade is of the following magnitude: 12,730 direct jobs and 225m of wages, producing 474m of GVA; 5,890 indirect jobs and 139m of wages, producing 284m of GVA; and 4,060 induced jobs and 61m of wages, producing 138m of GVA. In total, activity in the beer related off-trade element has been estimated to sustain 22,690 jobs, 430m of wages and 900m of GVA across the UK. 7.6 THE WEST MIDLANDS, LONDON, THE SOUTH EAST AND THE NORTH WEST ARE THE BIG WINNERS Our results indicate that the beer and pub sector made the largest overall impact within the, London, the South East and the North. These regions are in the top 5 in terms of GVA and wages. In most cases the regional estimates are broadly comparable with population shares, though differentials in regional productivity and wages do result in differences across the UK. Indeed the is estimated to have a significantly higher share of direct GVA from the pub sector than would be expected based on the size of the population. 7.7 COMPARISONS WITH OUR PREVIOUS 2013 BBPA REPORT The estimates for the beer and pub sector as a whole have improved on those estimates published in our previous report by six percent for total employment and three percent for total GVA and wages (the sector was estimated to have sustained 869,120 jobs, 10.58bn of wages and 21.7bn of GVA in 2013). These differences reflect the changes in official ABS statistics across the relevant sub-sectors, and the changes in supply chain spending patterns in the most recent UK input-output tables. The same four regions that have 47

52 contributed to the greatest extent to the UK figures (from Section 7.6) remain consistent with our 2013 report. A comparison of each element s estimates against their results from 2013 indicated that direct impacts all showed moderate increases outside of employment in the off-trade. However, induced employment and wages resulting from the off-trade element have weakened slightly over the year. The increase in the sector s overall benefits is due to a return to growth in the pub sector. 7.8 THE BEER AND PUB SECTOR IS OF GREAT IMPORTANCE Our analysis confirms that the UK beer and pub sector continues to be an important source of employment and output at a national and local level. Its activity gene a significant amount of contributions, investment and opportunities for young people to enter the labour market Adrian Cooper Chief Executive Officer Oxford Economics 48

53 ANNEX A: APPROACH This section describes the approach adopted to produce local estimates of the impact of the beer and pub sector across the UK. This section outlines general issues (i.e. provision of direct, indirect, induced and total estimates for GVA, employment and wages). It also focuses on direct employment by age group and employment status, new capital expenditure investment and direct/total es. UPDATING OUR PREVIOUS ANALYSIS AVAILABLE DATA The major source of employment and financial data on the sectors is the Annual Business Survey (formerly the Annual Business Inquiry) published by the Office for National Statistics. The publication of data on the website is typically provided at 2-digit industry level (consistent with the 2007 Standard Industrial Classification system) for the UK regions, however more detailed 4- digit industry data can be requested. Detailed regional and national data at the time of writing was available for Therefore we had to request the more detailed sectoral breakdown at a regional level from National Statistics. Unfortunately, at this level, some of the data is suppressed or held back for confidentiality reasons. As such we had to estimate some of the data using the UK data as control totals. In addition, while the ABS publishes financial information for all 12 UK regions, it only publishes employment numbers for 11 of them Northern Ireland is excluded, and thus we got this data from the NI Census of Employment (published by the Department of the Economy). Where possible (where we believe the regional ABS data), the sum of the LAs and PCs in a region are scaled to hit these published regional totals. In summary, we were able to collate data from these two sources for the following variables: Employment; Employment costs; Average wages and salaries; Gross Value Added (GVA); Net capital expenditure (CAPEX); Turnover; and Supply chain purchases. In addition to the ABS and NI Census of Employment data, we used the latest available sectoral GVA, and productivity estimates from Oxford Economics suite of forecasting models (which use published data from National Statistics). We used 2014 mid-year population figures for each region, local authority and parliamentary constituency. Finally, we used information provided by the client such as 2014 production and consumption data from the BBPA Statistical Handbook 2015 for the beer related on-trade and off-trade elements, as well as the following datasets on the number and location of: Major breweries and associated activities (e.g. full-time equivalent employee numbers and duty estimates) using postcodes; 49

54 Micro-breweries and associated activities (e.g. full-time equivalent employee numbers and duty estimates) using postcodes; Pub company head offices and associated activities (e.g. full-time equivalent employee numbers) using postcodes; Licenses for pubs in England and Wales using postcodes; Licenses for pubs by local authority (LA) in Scotland; and Licenses for pubs by Court District in Northern Ireland. The most recent year in which there is available data for all variables is 2014, therefore to keep the analysis consistent with previous work, the estimates contained within this report reflect the state of the beer and pub sector in The estimates were supplemented with 2015/2016 brewery and pub activity data provided by the industry (BBPA). GEOGRAPHICAL ISSUES The first task was therefore to sort the BBPA dataset bulleted above by region, local authority and parliamentary consistency. Where postcode data was available this was a relatively straight forward task. However, for Northern Ireland we needed to apportion the number of licenses to local authorities using the share of employment in the hotels and restaurant sector (for Northern Ireland, we also used our knowledge of the local geography to apportion out the licenses). MODEL FRAMEWORK Local authority estimates Fig. 59 and Fig. 61 below set out the conceptual model of the framework used in this analysis. The framework has been applied to both the estimation of the benefits for breweries and for pubs. In the figures below we show how the framework related to the pub element (breweries follow same logic). The first step was to estimate local performance metrics for the pub element. In doing so we used the rateable value for each pub in England and Wales. The rateable value is estimated using the fair maintainable trade valuation method. It assesses the rateable value of pubs and other licensed premises. Fair maintainable trade is the annual level of trade (excluding VAT) that a pub can be expected to achieve assuming a reasonably efficient operator. It is based on: The type of pub or licensed premises; The area it is in; and What services it is able to offer e.g. food, gaming and sports screenings. Actual rents and turnovers collected from businesses are used to arrive at levels of fair maintainable trade. A percentage to the fair maintainable trade figure is used to calculate the rateable value. 50

55 Fig. 59. Conceptual model framework - estimating indirect benefits Location and rateable value of pubs ABI data Direct performance data by local authority Value of output Sectoral employment concentrations in each local authority Input/output tables Indirect or supply chain output/gva Assumptions: on % of supply chain spending sourced in each location Sourced locally Sourced within region Sourced within rest of the UK Productivity Wages Supply chain sourced locally Supply chain or indirect employment and wages at local authority level Using the rateable values of each pub we apportioned out each of the performance metrics (e.g. employment, GVA, turnover, etc.). We were then able to sum up and produce direct benefits for each local authority and consequently regional totals. Direct benefits include those directly employed in the sector in question, the earnings from the sector, and the value of output or GVA directly from the element. The value of direct output from the element was then used in conjunction with the UK input-output tables to work out the indirect or supply chain impacts. An input-output model gives a snapshot of an economy at any point in time. The model shows the major spending flows from final demand (i.e. consumer spending, government spending, investment and exports to the rest of the world); intermediate spending patterns (i.e. what each sector buys from every other sector the supply chain in other words); how much of that spending stays within the economy; and the distribution of income between employment incomes and other income (mainly profits). In essence an input-output model is a table which shows who buys what from whom in the economy. 51

56 LQ Although input-output tables gave us an estimate of supply chain spending, they do not assign this geographically. To overcome this we used the sectoral employment concentrations in each local authority along with assumptions to split the supply chain spending or indirect spending into that sourced locally within the local authority area, that sourced within the region and that sourced within the rest of the UK. We have assumed that sourcing of certain activities should be treated separately. For example, for low value sectors it is likely that a business will look to those closest to it, whereas for high value sectors they will be more open to sourcing services and goods from further afield. The higher the concentration of employment in any one sector the more we assume they source locally. Fig. 60 outlines our assumptions. So for example, if an area has a location quotient (LQ) 10 in a low value sector of below 50 we have assumed it sources 40% locally, 30% regionally and 30% nationally. However if it has a location quotient above 50 and below 100 in a high value sector, we assume they source 30% locally, 30% regionally and 40% nationally. Low value sectors Fig. 60. Supply chain spending assumptions Locally Regional Nationally High value sectors Low value sectors High value sectors Low value sectors High value sectors Similarly, the supply chain spending that is allocated regionally and nationally is distributed across the relevant local authorities based on employment concentrations. The result is an estimate of supply chain or indirect output split by sector and local authority. After converting this to GVA, we then apply regional sectoral productivity estimates to produce indirect employment. Regional wages are then used to produce indirect wage estimates for each local authority. The next stage was to produce our induced employment and wage impacts (i.e. the creation of direct and indirect jobs will induce further employment creation through the spending of direct and indirect earnings). Typically, the majority of consumers disposable income will fall into the four sectors: retail, hotels & restaurants, arts & entertainment, and other services. We therefore make an estimate of the number of jobs found in each sector per 1m of income. Given 10 A location quotient shows the concentration of sectoral employment in an area relative to its regional or national average. For example a local authority with a LQ in a specific sector of 100 would mean it has the same proportion of employment in that sector as the regional average. A figure above 100 depicts a higher concentration of employment, and a figure below 100 represents a lower concentration. 52

57 we have calculated direct and indirect wages, we can then estimate the number of additional induced jobs that would be expected to arise in each local authority. Fig. 61. Conceptual model framework - estimating induced benefits Direct employment and wages Indirect employment and wages Jobs per 1 million spent in retail, hospitality and other services Induced employment and wages at Local Authority level For the beer related on-trade and off-trade elements, the only step that changed was finding the initial estimates for the range of variables for each region (given there wasn t postcode data for these elements). To do this we used the BBPA Statistical Handbook 2015 which published information on the production, consumption, prices and turnover in both the on-and off-trade sectors, as well as the percentages accounted for by their constituent sub-sectors (hotels, restaurants, sports clubs and off-licenses). Parliamentary constituency estimates Estimating the impacts across parliamentary constituency (PC) was done using the same model structure as was used in the local authority models. The only difference was that employment and wage data at a parliamentary constituency level was used instead. DEVISING TOTAL ESTIMATES OF OVERALL BEER AND PUB SECTOR It is not possible to simply sum the respective benefits of all four elements (breweries, pub, on-trade and off-trade), as this will overestimate the indirect, induced and as a result, overall impacts (for GVA, employment and wages). This is because the supply chains of the pub, on- and off-trade elements contain a proportion of the brewery element and its supply chain, therefore adding everything together would result in double counting some of the impacts. As such, we adopted the approach below to calculate the total impacts for GVA, employment and wages; we believe this approach to be the best given all the information at hand: Direct impacts: Calculated by summing the direct impacts from the four elements of activity for GVA, employment and wages; Indirect impacts: For GVA, employment and wages, total indirect impacts are calculated by summing the indirect impacts of pub, the rest of the ontrade and the off-trade, and 12.7 percent of the indirect impacts from the 53

58 breweries (as information taken from the BBPA Statistical Handbook 2015 suggests exports form 12.7 percent of total production). The remainder of the brewery element s indirect impacts will already be accounted for in the indirect impacts from the other 3 elements; and Induced impacts: For GVA, employment and wages, total induced impacts are calculated by summing the induced impacts of pub, the rest of the on-trade and the off-trade, and 12.7 percent of the indirect impacts from the breweries (as information taken from the BBPA Statistical Handbook 2015 suggests exports form 12.7 percent of total production). The remainder of the brewery element s induced impacts will already be accounted for in the induced impacts from the other 3 elements. LIMITATIONS The model developed for this study provides a robust tool for estimating local benefits arising from brewery and beer sales. However it does have limitations: In practice pubs or breweries will not source goods and services based purely on regional boundaries and sectoral employment concentrations; there is likely to be a preference for proximity. Despite this, the approach adopted in the model provides a sensible approach to allocating impacts, and takes account of proximity by allocating spending to the local economy, then the regional economy and followed by the UK economy (see Fig. 59). Data for certain sub-sectors, e.g. the manufacturing of beer, is limited at a regional level and can be exceptionally volatile: o GVA data for the manufacturing of beer is extremely volatile at a regional level and not available for many regions. For the seven regions that had published GVA data, there were large variations in calculated productivity. As a result productivity in the sector was set equal to the UK average; o The same is true of wages and turnover data. As a result, these have been set equal to national averages. ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS DIRECT EMPLOYMENT BY AGE GROUP The Labour Force Survey (LFS), published by ONS, provides employment data at a 4-digit industry level (consistent with the 2007 Standard Industrial Classification system), broken down by age band, for the 12 UK regions. However using this level of sectoral detail, even at a regional level, involves a lot of suppressed data in certain cases (particularly for the sub-sectors pertaining to the brewery and off-trade elements). The team at Oxford Economics used the published regional data where possible, but plugged any gaps by using either the UK average or the figure for a region with a similar employment by age breakdown. These breakdowns were applied to the direct employment estimates for every LA or PC within that region, for the given element. While we could have estimated the direct employment by age group using a number of other methods (using 2-digit industry data or UK averages), this 54

59 wouldn t have given us the accuracy we needed nor would it have allowed us to take account of trends/disparities across regions. The estimates in the model are broken down for six age groups (shown below): Under 25; 25-34; 35-44; 45-54; 55-64; and 65+. In this report we only publish this level of detail for the overall beer and pub sector; for the individual elements we amalgamate to show 3 age groups (Under 25, and 45+) given the volatile nature of the data. DIRECT EMPLOYMENT BY EMPLOYMENT STATUS Again, we use the LFS to obtain employment data at a 4-digit industry level (consistent with the 2007 Standard Industrial Classification system), broken down by employment status (i.e. whether a job is full-time or part-time), for the 12 UK regions. In this case the LFS information is slightly better with fewer gaps and less suppressed data. The overall methodology remains the same as used for the age group breakdown. We again use the published regional data where possible, but use either the UK average or the values of a region we do believe to plug the gaps. It should be noted that gaps mainly exist for breweries and off-trade in this case also. Again, the breakdowns were applied to the direct employment estimates for every LA or PC within that region, for the given element. NET CAPITAL INVESTMENT EXPENDITURE (CAPEX) To calculate the local estimates of the CAPEX, a method similar to that used in estimating direct employment breakdowns was used. This method is the same as in the previous report. We used the 2014 ABS, and applied the direct CAPEX/GVA ratios for each element for each region to the LA and PC estimates of direct GVA. Using the region and sub-sector data rather than UK or 2-digit data, as above, allows for regional disparities. Once again, there are cases where the ABS has figures missing for the total net capital expenditure or GVA for certain regions, meaning we cannot calculate ratios. We again plugged gaps using either the UK figure or a comparable region we did believe, based on our judgment, before scaling. We then applied these ratios for each region for each element to the direct GVA in the LA or PC within that region, for the given element. As with the previous analysis, the total CAPEX figure for the LAs / PCs in a region was scaled to hit the regional published totals (that we believed to be accurate) from the 2014 ABS. 55

60 TAXATION We were asked to estimate the amount of direct es and total es (sum of direct, indirect and induced es) 11 generated locally for each element and the beer and pub sector as a whole. The type of generated depended on the element in question. All four elements provide corporation and income /national insurance contributions (NIC). However while the brewery element alone provides excise duty, it is only the other three elements (pub, on- and offtrade) that provide value-added (VAT). As well as this, pubs alone provide excise duty on other drinks (an indirect ) and business (a direct ). The methodology used to estimate each form of is below: Corporation : Corporate payments are calculated by using the derived profits in each sector which are themselves calculated by subtracting wages from GVA. If positive, this profit figure is then multiplied by the ratio of corporation payable to gross trading profits in (latest available) for the broad industrial sector taken from Table T11.4 of HMRC (2016) 12 This is used in preference to the headline rate to take account of capital allowances etc. For the indirect and induced corporation figures, the all industries figure ratio is used. If a loss is made, the model assumes zero corporation is paid. The exception is for pubs. Here average corporation payment per pub is taken from BBPA calculations. This is multiplied by the number of pubs in the geography; /NIC: o : Gross average earnings are calculated for each sector and geography. These are then combined with the income allowances and for 2014/15. Any income below 10,000 pays no income. Between 10,000 and 41,865 the rate is 20 percent. Over 41,865 the rate is 40 percent. The average amount of income paid per person is then multiplied by the number of people employed in the element and region. Where income or NIC contributions are zero (in the pub element for some regions) the model takes account of the full- and part-time wages of employees in the sector and scales up the average wage, so that income paid in that region can still be estimated; o NIC employees: Gross average earnings per person are calculated for each element and region. These are then combined with the NIC employees allowances and for 2014/15. No employees NIC is paid on wages up to 153 earned per week. Between 153 and 805 per week the rate is 12 percent. Over 805 the rate is 2 percent. The amount of NIC employees is calculated for the average person in each element and region, then multiplied by the number of employees; 11 The terms direct and indirect are used in the same sense as direct employment and indirect employment rather than in the normal sense of distinguishing between a on a person or property rather than a on a transaction. 12 HMRC (2016), Corporation Tax Statistics : 56

61 o NIC employers: Gross average earnings per person are calculated. These are then combined with the NIC employers allowances and for 2014/15. No employers NIC is paid on wage up to 153 earned per week. Over 153 per week the rate is 13.8 percent. There is no upper threshold. The amount of NICs employers is calculated for the average person in each element and region, then multiplied by the number of employees. VAT for direct es: o Pubs: A spreadsheet provided by BBPA calculates the average VAT payment per pub. This is multiplied by the number of pubs per geography; o Off-trade: The ONS publication Consumer Trends shows the value of consumer spending on beer in the off-trade until Q2 of This is then combined with the VAT rate (20%). o On-trade (excluding pubs): The ONS publication Consumer Trends used to show the value of consumer spending on beer in the on-trade. Data was published up to 2014Q2. This is then combined with the VAT rate (20%). VAT for indirect and induced es: ONS data 14 shows the rate of indirect es as a percentage of gross income for all households by quintile groups in 2013/14. VAT makes up 6.8 percent of all households gross income. It is assumed people spend all their income. Excise duty on other drinks and business : A spreadsheet provided by BBPA gives the average excise duty paid on other drinks in a pub and the average business rate. These figures are multiplied by the number of pubs in the geography. As with the total GVA, employment and wage impacts for the overall beer and pub sector, it is not possible to simply sum the respective benefits of all four elements (breweries, pub, on-trade and off-trade), as this will overestimate the indirect, induced and as a result, overall impacts. This is because the supply chains of the pub, on- and off-trade elements contain a proportion of the brewery element and its supply chain, therefore adding everything together would result in double counting some of the impacts. As such, we adopted the approach below to calculate the total impacts for ; we believe this approach to be the best given all the information at hand: Direct impacts: Calculated by summing the direct impacts from the four elements of activity; Indirect impacts: Calculated by summing the indirect estimates of the pub, on- and off-trade elements, 12.7 percent of the breweries' VAT and corporation (as these two forms are also provided by the other 3 13 ONS series UUPI. 14 Office for National Statistics, The effects of es and benefits on household income, 2012/13: Further analysis and methodology. Table 3. 57

62 elements) but all of the breweries' excise duty (as breweries alone provide this form of and thus it won't be double counted). The remainder of the breweries' indirect impacts will already be accounted for in the indirect impacts from the other 3 elements; and Induced impacts: Calculated by summing the induced estimates of the pub, on- and off-trade elements, 12.7 percent of the breweries' VAT and corporation (as these two forms are also provided by the other 3 elements) but all of the breweries' excise duty (as breweries alone provide this form of and thus it won't be double counted). The remainder of the breweries' induced impacts will already be accounted for in the induced impacts from the other 3 elements. For the other facets of the analysis (direct employment by age group and by economic status, and net capital expenditure), the total impacts are found by summing the direct impacts from the four elements of activity, given that these three facets only relate to direct activity. 58

63 ANNEX B (PART 1): LOCAL IMPACT OF THE BEER AND PUB SECTOR AT PARLIAMENTARY CONSTITUENCY LEVEL Parliamentary constituency Region Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Aldershot South East , Arundel and South Downs South East 1, , Ashford South East 1, , Aylesbury South East 1, , Banbury South East 1, , Basingstoke South East , Beaconsfield South East 1, , Bexhill and Battle South East , Bognor Regis and Littlehampton South East , Bracknell South East 1, , Brighton, Kemptown South East , Brighton, Pavilion South East 2, , Buckingham South East , Canterbury South East 1, , Chatham and Aylesford South East Chesham and Amersham South East , Chichester South East 1, , Crawley South East 1, , Dartford South East 1, , Dover South East 1, , East Hampshire South East 1, , East Surrey South East 1, , East Worthing and Shoreham South East Eastbourne South East ,

64 Parliamentary constituency Region Local impact of the UK beer and pub sector Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Eastleigh South East 1, , Epsom and Ewell South East 1, , Esher and Walton South East 1, , Fareham South East 1, , Faversham and Mid Kent South East 1, , Folkestone and Hythe South East , Gillingham and Rainham South East , Gosport South East Gravesham South East 1, , Guildford South East 1, , Hastings and Rye South East , Havant South East Henley South East 1, , Horsham South East 1, , Hove South East , Isle of Wight South East 2, , Lewes South East 1, , Maidenhead South East 1, , Maidstone and The Weald South East 1, , Meon Valley South East 1, , Mid Sussex South East , Milton Keynes North South East 1, , Milton Keynes South South East , Mole Valley South East 1, , New Forest East South East 1, , New Forest South East 1, , Newbury South East 1, , North East Hampshire South East 1, , North Thanet South East , North Hampshire South East 1, , Oxford East South East 1, ,

65 Parliamentary constituency Region Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Oxford and Abingdon South East 1, , Portsmouth North South East 1, , Portsmouth South South East 1, , Reading East South East 1, , Reading South East Reigate South East 1, , Rochester and Strood South East , Romsey and Southampton North South East 1, , Runnymede and Weybridge South East 1, , Sevenoaks South East 1, , Sittingbourne and Sheppey South East , Slough South East South Thanet South East 1, , South Surrey South East 1, , Southampton, Itchen South East 1, , Southampton, Test South East , Spelthorne South East 1, , Surrey Heath South East 1, , Tonbridge and Malling South East 1, , Tunbridge Wells South East 1, , Wantage South East 1, , Wealden South East , Winchester South East 1, , Windsor South East 2, , Witney South East 1, , Woking South East 1, , Wokingham South East , Worthing South East , Wycombe South East 1, , Barking London Battersea London 1, ,

66 Parliamentary constituency Region Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Beckenham London Bermondsey and Old Southwark London 1, , Bethnal Green and Bow London , Bexleyheath and Crayford London Brent Central London Brent North London Brentford and Isleworth London 1, , Bromley and Chislehurst London Camberwell and Peckham London Carshalton and Wallington London Chelsea and Fulham London 1, , Chingford and Woodford Green London Chipping Barnet London Cities of London and minster London 13,137 3,226 1,612 17, Croydon Central London , Croydon North London Croydon South London Dagenham and Rainham London Dulwich and Norwood London Ealing Central and Acton London , Ealing North London Ealing, Southall London East Ham London Edmonton London Eltham London Enfield North London Enfield, Southgate London Erith and Thamesmead London Feltham and Heston London Finchley and Golders Green London Greenwich and Woolwich London ,

67 Parliamentary constituency Region Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Hackney North and Stoke Newington London Hackney South and Shoreditch London 1, , Hammersmith London 1, , Hampstead and Kilburn London , Harrow East London Harrow London Hayes and Harlington London Hendon London Holborn and St Pancras London 3, , Hornchurch and Upminster London Hornsey and Wood Green London Ilford North London Ilford South London Islington North London Islington South and Finsbury London 2, , Kensington London 1, , Kingston and Surbiton London 1, , Lewisham East London Lewisham and Penge London Lewisham, Deptford London Leyton and Wanstead London Mitcham and Morden London Old Bexley and Sidcup London Orpington London Poplar and Limehouse London 1, , Putney London , Richmond Park London 1, , Romford London , Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner London Streatham London Sutton and Cheam London

68 Parliamentary constituency Region Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Tooting London Tottenham London Twickenham London , Uxbridge and South Ruislip London Vauxhall London 1, , Walthamstow London Ham London minster North London 1, , Wimbledon London , Basildon and Billericay East 1, , Bedford East 1, , Braintree East , Brentwood and Ongar East 1, , Broadland East , Broxbourne East Bury St Edmunds East 1, , Cambridge East 2, , Castle Point East Central Suffolk and North Ipswich East , Chelmsford East 1, , Clacton East Colchester East , Epping Forest East 1, , Great Yarmouth East 1, , Harlow East 1, , Harwich and North Essex East , Hemel Hempstead East 1, , Hertford and Stortford East 1, , Hertsmere East 1, , Hitchin and Harpenden East 1, , Huntingdon East 1, ,

69 Parliamentary constituency Region Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Ipswich East 1, , Luton North East Luton South East 1, , Maldon East 1, , Mid Bedfordshire East 1, , Mid Norfolk East , North East Bedfordshire East , North East Cambridgeshire East , North East Hertfordshire East 1, , North Norfolk East , North Cambridgeshire East 1, , North Norfolk East , Norwich North East Norwich South East 1, , Peterborough East 1, , Rayleigh and Wickford East , Rochford and Southend East East 1, , Saffron Walden East 1, , South Basildon and East Thurrock East , South Cambridgeshire East 1, , South East Cambridgeshire East 1, , South Norfolk East , South Suffolk East 1, , South Bedfordshire East 1, , South Hertfordshire East 1, , South Norfolk East , Southend East , St Albans East 1, , Stevenage East 1, , Suffolk Coastal East 1, , Thurrock East ,

70 Parliamentary constituency Region Local impact of the UK beer and pub sector Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Watford East 1, , Waveney East 1, , Welwyn Hatfield East 1, , Suffolk East 1, , Witham East , Bath South 1, , Bournemouth East South Bournemouth South 1, , Bridgwater and Somerset South 1, , Bristol East South Bristol North South Bristol South South Bristol South 2, , Camborne and Redruth South 1, , Central Devon South 1, , Cheltenham South 1, , Chippenham South 1, , Christchurch South 1, , Devizes South 1, , East Devon South 1, , Exeter South 1, , Filton and Bradley Stoke South , Forest of Dean South Gloucester South 1, , Kingswood South , Mid Dorset and North Poole South Newton Abbot South 1, , North Cornwall South 1, , North Devon South 1, , North Dorset South 1, , North East Somerset South ,

71 Parliamentary constituency Region Local impact of the UK beer and pub sector Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL North Somerset South 1, , North Swindon South , North Wiltshire South 1, , Plymouth, Moor View South Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport South 1, , Poole South 1, , Salisbury South 1, , Somerton and Frome South 1, , South Dorset South 1, , South East Cornwall South 1, , South Swindon South 1, , South Devon South , South Wiltshire South , St Austell and Newquay South 2, , St Ives South 1, , Stroud South 1, , Taunton Deane South 1, , Tewkesbury South 1, , The Cotswolds South 1, , Thornbury and Yate South 1, , Tiverton and Honiton South 1, , Torbay South 1, , Torridge and Devon South 1, , Totnes South 1, , Truro and Falmouth South 1, , Wells South 1, , Dorset South 1, , on-super-mare South 1, , Yeovil South 1, , Aldridge-Brownhills Birmingham, Edgbaston ,

72 Parliamentary constituency Region Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Birmingham, Erdington Birmingham, Hall Green , Birmingham, Hodge Hill Birmingham, Ladywood 4,295 1, , Birmingham, Northfield Birmingham, Perry Barr Birmingham, Selly Oak Birmingham, Yardley Bromsgrove 1, , Burton 3,946 1, , Cannock Chase , Coventry North East , Coventry North Coventry South , Dudley North Dudley South , Halesowen and Rowley Regis Hereford and South Herefordshire , Kenilworth and Southam 1, , Lichfield 1, , Ludlow 1, , Meriden 1, , Mid Worcestershire 1, , Newcastle-under-Lyme 1, , North Herefordshire , North Shropshire , North Warwickshire 1, , Nuneaton , Redditch Rugby 1, , Shrewsbury and Atcham 1, ,

73 Parliamentary constituency Region Local impact of the UK beer and pub sector Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Solihull 1, , South Staffordshire 1, , Stafford 1, , Staffordshire Moorlands , Stoke-on-Trent Central , Stoke-on-Trent North Stoke-on-Trent South Stone , Stourbridge , Stratford-on-Avon 1, , Sutton Coldfield 1, , Tamworth , Telford , The Wrekin , Walsall North Walsall South , Warley Warwick and Leamington 1, , Bromwich East Bromwich , Worcestershire , Wolverhampton North East Wolverhampton South East Wolverhampton South 2, , Worcester 1, , Wyre Forest , Amber Valley East Ashfield East , Bassetlaw East , Bolsover East Boston and Skegness East 1, ,

74 Parliamentary constituency Region Local impact of the UK beer and pub sector Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Bosworth East , Broxtowe East , Charnwood East , Chesterfield East , Corby East , Daventry East , Derby North East Derby South East 1, , Derbyshire Dales East 1, , Erewash East Gainsborough East Gedling East Grantham and Stamford East 1, , Harborough East , High Peak East , Kettering East , Leicester East East Leicester South East 1, , Leicester East Lincoln East 1, , Loughborough East , Louth and Horncastle East , Mansfield East 1, , Mid Derbyshire East Newark East 1, , North East Derbyshire East , North Leicestershire East , Northampton North East Northampton South East 1, , Nottingham East East , Nottingham North East

75 Parliamentary constituency Region Local impact of the UK beer and pub sector Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Nottingham South East 2, , Rushcliffe East , Rutland and Melton East , Sherwood East , Sleaford and North Hykeham East , South Derbyshire East , South Holland and The Deepings East South Leicestershire East , South Northamptonshire East , Wellingborough East Barnsley Central , Barnsley East Batley and Spen , Beverley and Holderness 1, , Bradford East Bradford South Bradford , Brigg and Goole , Calder Valley 1, , Cleethorpes 1, , Colne Valley Dewsbury , Don Valley Doncaster Central 1, , Doncaster North

76 Parliamentary constituency East Yorkshire Elmet and Rothwell Great Grimsby Halifax Haltemprice and Howden Harrogate and Knaresborough Hemsworth Huddersfield Keighley Kingston upon Hull East Kingston upon Hull North Kingston upon Hull and Hessle Leeds Central Leeds East Leeds North East Leeds North Leeds Morley and Outwood Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Penistone and Stocksbridge Pudsey Richmond (Yorks) Region Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,345 1, , , , , , , , , , , ,

77 Parliamentary constituency Region Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Rother Valley , Rotherham , Scarborough and Whitby 1, , Scunthorpe , Selby and Ainsty 1, , Sheffield Central 3, , Sheffield South East , Sheffield, Brightside and Hillsborough Sheffield, Hallam , Sheffield, Heeley Shipley , Skipton and Ripon 2, , Thirsk and Malton 1, , Wakefield 1, , Wentworth and Dearne , York Central 2, , York Outer , Altrincham and Sale North , Ashton-under-Lyne North , Barrow and Furness North , Birkenhead North Blackburn North 1, , Blackley and Broughton North Blackpool North and Cleveleys North 1, ,

78 Parliamentary constituency Region Local impact of the UK beer and pub sector Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Blackpool South North 1, , Bolton North East North Bolton South East North , Bolton North , Bootle North , Burnley North , Bury North North , Bury South North Carlisle North 1, , Cheadle North , Chorley North 1, , City of Chester North 2, , Congleton North , Copeland North 1, , Crewe and Nantwich North 1, , Denton and Reddish North Eddisbury North 1, , Ellesmere Port and Neston North , Fylde North 1, , Garston and Halewood North Halton North , Hazel Grove North , Heywood and Middleton North , Hyndburn North , Knowsley North Lancaster and Fleetwood North 1, , Leigh North 1, , Liverpool, Riverside North 4, , Liverpool, Walton North Liverpool, Wavertree North Liverpool, Derby North

79 Parliamentary constituency Region Local impact of the UK beer and pub sector Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Macclesfield North 1, , Makerfield North Manchester Central North 5,909 1, , Manchester, Gorton North Manchester, Withington North 1, , Morecambe and Lunesdale North , Oldham East and Saddleworth North Oldham and Royton North 1, , Pendle North Penrith and The Border North 1, , Preston North 1, , Ribble Valley North 1, , Rochdale North , Rossendale and Darwen North Salford and Eccles North , Sefton Central North , South Ribble North , Southport North , St Helens North North St Helens South and Whiston North 1, , Stalybridge and Hyde North Stockport North 1, , Stretford and Urmston North , Tatton North 1, , Wallasey North Warrington North North , Warrington South North 1, , Weaver Vale North , Lancashire North 1, , morland and Lonsdale North 2, , Wigan North 1, ,

80 Parliamentary constituency Region Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Wirral South North , Wirral North Workington North Worsley and Eccles South North , Wyre and Preston North North 1, , Wythenshawe and Sale East North , Berwick-upon-Tweed North East , Bishop Auckland North East Blaydon North East , Blyth Valley North East City of Durham North East , Darlington North East , Easington North East Gateshead North East Hartlepool North East , Hexham North East , Houghton and Sunderland South North East Jarrow North East Middlesbrough North East , Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland North East Newcastle upon Tyne Central North East 3, , Newcastle upon Tyne East North East , Newcastle upon Tyne North North East North Durham North East North Tyneside North East , North Durham North East Redcar North East Sedgefield North East South Shields North East , Stockton North North East , Stockton South North East ,

81 Parliamentary constituency Region Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Sunderland Central North East 1, , Tynemouth North East , Wansbeck North East Washington and Sunderland North East Aberavon Wales Aberconwy Wales , Alyn and Deeside Wales Arfon Wales , Blaenau Gwent Wales Brecon and Radnorshire Wales , Bridgend Wales 1, , Caerphilly Wales Cardiff Central Wales 2, , Cardiff North Wales 1, , Cardiff South and Penarth Wales 1, , Cardiff Wales , Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Wales Carmarthen and South Pembrokeshire Wales , Ceredigion Wales , Clwyd South Wales Clwyd Wales Cynon Valley Wales Delyn Wales Dwyfor Meirionnydd Wales 1, , Gower Wales , Islwyn Wales Llanelli Wales , Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Wales Monmouth Wales 1, , Montgomeryshire Wales Neath Wales

82 Parliamentary constituency Region Local impact of the UK beer and pub sector Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Newport East Wales , Newport Wales 1, , Ogmore Wales Pontypridd Wales Preseli Pembrokeshire Wales , Rhondda Wales Swansea East Wales Swansea Wales 1, , Torfaen Wales Vale of Clwyd Wales Vale of Glamorgan Wales 1, , Wrexham Wales 1, , Ynys Mon Wales , Aberdeen North Scotland , Aberdeen South Scotland , Airdrie and Shotts Scotland Angus Scotland Argyll and Bute Scotland 1, , Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Scotland , Banff and Buchan Scotland Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Scotland Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Scotland Central Ayrshire Scotland , Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Scotland Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Scotland Dumfries and Galloway Scotland , Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Scotland Dundee East Scotland Dundee Scotland

83 Parliamentary constituency Region Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Dunfermline and Fife Scotland , East Dunbartonshire Scotland East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Scotland East Lothian Scotland , East Renfrewshire Scotland Edinburgh East Scotland 1, , Edinburgh North and Leith Scotland 2, , Edinburgh South Scotland Edinburgh South Scotland 1, , Edinburgh Scotland Falkirk Scotland Glasgow Central Scotland 4,050 1, , Glasgow East Scotland Glasgow North Scotland , Glasgow North East Scotland , Glasgow North Scotland Glasgow South Scotland Glasgow South Scotland Glenrothes Scotland Gordon Scotland Inverclyde Scotland Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey Scotland 1, , Kilmarnock and Loudoun Scotland Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Scotland Lanark and Hamilton East Scotland Linlithgow and East Falkirk Scotland Livingston Scotland Midlothian Scotland Moray Scotland Motherwell and Wishaw Scotland Na h-eileanan An Iar Scotland

84 Parliamentary constituency Region Employment Wages ( m) GVA ( m) Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL Direct Indirect Induced TOTAL North Ayrshire and Arran Scotland North East Fife Scotland , Ochil and South Perthshire Scotland Orkney and Shetland Scotland Paisley and Renfrewshire North Scotland Paisley and Renfrewshire South Scotland Perth and North Perthshire Scotland , Ross, Skye and Lochaber Scotland Rutherglen and Hamilton Scotland Stirling Scotland , Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Scotland Dunbartonshire Scotland Belfast East Northern Ireland Belfast North Northern Ireland , Belfast South Northern Ireland 2, , Belfast Northern Ireland East Antrim Northern Ireland East Londonderry Northern Ireland , Fermanagh and South Tyrone Northern Ireland Foyle Northern Ireland Lagan Valley Northern Ireland Mid Ulster Northern Ireland Newry and Armagh Northern Ireland North Antrim Northern Ireland North Down Northern Ireland South Antrim Northern Ireland South Down Northern Ireland Strangford Northern Ireland Upper Bann Northern Ireland Tyrone Northern Ireland

85 ANNEX B (PART 2): LOCAL IMPACT OF THE BEER AND PUB SECTOR AT PARLIAMENTARY CONSTITUENCY LEVEL Parliamentary constituency Region Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates Aldershot South East Arundel and South Downs South East Ashford South East Aylesbury South East Banbury South East Basingstoke South East Beaconsfield South East Bexhill and Battle South East Bognor Regis and Littlehampton South East Bracknell South East Brighton, Kemptown South East Brighton, Pavilion South East 1, ,257 1, Buckingham South East Canterbury South East Chatham and Aylesford South East Chesham and Amersham South East Chichester South East Crawley South East Dartford South East /NIC Excise duty and VAT Bus. 81

86 Parliamentary constituency Region Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates Dover South East East Hampshire South East East Surrey South East East Worthing and Shoreham South East Eastbourne South East Eastleigh South East Epsom and Ewell South East Esher and Walton South East Fareham South East Faversham and Mid Kent South East Folkestone and Hythe South East Gillingham and Rainham South East Gosport South East Gravesham South East Guildford South East Hastings and Rye South East Havant South East Henley South East Horsham South East Hove South East Isle of Wight South East 1, , Lewes South East Maidenhead South East Maidstone and The Weald South East Meon Valley South East Mid Sussex South East Milton Keynes North South East /NIC Excise duty and VAT Bus. 82

87 Parliamentary constituency Region Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates Milton Keynes South South East Mole Valley South East New Forest East South East New Forest South East Newbury South East North East Hampshire South East North Thanet South East North Hampshire South East Oxford East South East , Oxford and Abingdon South East Portsmouth North South East Portsmouth South South East , Reading East South East Reading South East Reigate South East Rochester and Strood South East Romsey and Southampton North South East Runnymede and Weybridge South East Sevenoaks South East Sittingbourne and Sheppey South East Slough South East South Thanet South East South Surrey South East Southampton, Itchen South East Southampton, Test South East Spelthorne South East /NIC Excise duty and VAT Bus. 83

88 Parliamentary constituency Region Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates Surrey Heath South East Tonbridge and Malling South East Tunbridge Wells South East Wantage South East Wealden South East Winchester South East Windsor South East 1, , Witney South East Woking South East Wokingham South East Worthing South East Wycombe South East Barking London Battersea London Beckenham London Bermondsey and Old Southwark London Bethnal Green and Bow London Bexleyheath and Crayford London Brent Central London Brent North London Brentford and Isleworth London Bromley and Chislehurst London Camberwell and Peckham London Carshalton and Wallington London Chelsea and Fulham London Chingford and Woodford Green London Chipping Barnet London /NIC Excise duty and VAT Bus. 84

89 Parliamentary constituency Cities of London and minster Region London Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT 4,44 8 5,548 3,14 0 Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates /NIC Excise duty and VAT 6,782 6, Croydon Central London Croydon North London Croydon South London Dagenham and Rainham London Dulwich and Norwood London Ealing Central and Acton London Ealing North London Ealing, Southall London East Ham London Edmonton London Eltham London Enfield North London Enfield, Southgate London Erith and Thamesmead London Feltham and Heston London Finchley and Golders Green London Greenwich and Woolwich London Hackney North and Stoke Newington London Hackney South and Shoreditch London Hammersmith London Hampstead and Kilburn London Harrow East London Harrow London Hayes and Harlington London Hendon London Bus. 85

90 Parliamentary constituency Holborn and St Pancras Hornchurch and Upminster Region London Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT 1,33 6 Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates /NIC 1, ,006 1, London Hornsey and Wood Green London Ilford North London Ilford South London Islington North London Islington South and Finsbury London 847 1, ,248 1, Kensington London Kingston and Surbiton London Lewisham East London Lewisham and Penge London Lewisham, Deptford London Leyton and Wanstead London Mitcham and Morden London Old Bexley and Sidcup London Orpington London Poplar and Limehouse London Putney London Richmond Park London Romford London Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner London Streatham London Sutton and Cheam London Tooting London Tottenham London Twickenham London Excise duty and VAT Bus. 86

91 Parliamentary constituency Uxbridge and South Ruislip Region Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates /NIC London Vauxhall London Walthamstow London Ham London minster North London Wimbledon London Basildon and Billericay East Bedford East Braintree East Brentwood and Ongar East Broadland East Broxbourne East Bury St Edmunds East , Cambridge East ,064 1, Castle Point East Central Suffolk and North Ipswich East Chelmsford East Clacton East Colchester East Epping Forest East Great Yarmouth East Harlow East Harwich and North Essex East Hemel Hempstead East Hertford and Stortford East Hertsmere East Hitchin and Harpenden East Excise duty and VAT Bus. 87

92 Parliamentary constituency Region Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates Huntingdon East Ipswich East Luton North East Luton South East Maldon East Mid Bedfordshire East Mid Norfolk East North East Bedfordshire East North East Cambridgeshire East North East Hertfordshire East North Norfolk East North Cambridgeshire East North Norfolk East Norwich North East Norwich South East , Peterborough East Rayleigh and Wickford East Rochford and Southend East East Saffron Walden East South Basildon and East Thurrock East South Cambridgeshire East South East Cambridgeshire East South Norfolk East South Suffolk East South Bedfordshire East South Hertfordshire East /NIC Excise duty and VAT Bus. 88

93 Parliamentary constituency Region Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates South Norfolk East Southend East St Albans East Stevenage East Suffolk Coastal East Thurrock East Watford East Waveney East Welwyn Hatfield East Suffolk East Witham East Bath South Bournemouth East South Bournemouth South Bridgwater and Somerset South Bristol East South Bristol North South Bristol South South Bristol South 1, ,030 1, Camborne and Redruth South Central Devon South Cheltenham South Chippenham South Christchurch South Devizes South East Devon South Exeter South /NIC Excise duty and VAT Bus. 89

94 Parliamentary constituency Region Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates Filton and Bradley Stoke South Forest of Dean South Gloucester South Kingswood South Mid Dorset and North Poole South Newton Abbot South North Cornwall South , North Devon South North Dorset South North East Somerset South North Somerset South North Swindon South North Wiltshire South Plymouth, Moor View South Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport South , Poole South Salisbury South Somerton and Frome South South Dorset South , South East Cornwall South South Swindon South South Devon South South Wiltshire South St Austell and Newquay South , St Ives South , Stroud South Taunton Deane South /NIC Excise duty and VAT Bus. 90

95 Parliamentary constituency Region Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates Tewkesbury South The Cotswolds South , Thornbury and Yate South Tiverton and Honiton South Torbay South Torridge and Devon South Totnes South Truro and Falmouth South , Wells South Dorset South on-super-mare South Yeovil South Aldridge-Brownhills Birmingham, Edgbaston Birmingham, Erdington Birmingham, Hall Green Birmingham, Hodge Hill Birmingham, Ladywood 1,91 1,04 1, ,809 2, Birmingham, Northfield Birmingham, Perry Barr Birmingham, Selly Oak Birmingham, Yardley Bromsgrove /NIC Excise duty and VAT Bus. 91

96 Parliamentary constituency Burton Cannock Chase Coventry North East Coventry North Coventry South Dudley North Dudley South Halesowen and Rowley Regis Hereford and South Herefordshire Kenilworth and Southam Lichfield Ludlow Meriden Mid Worcestershire Newcastle-under-Lyme North Herefordshire North Shropshire North Warwickshire Nuneaton Region Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT 1,24 0 1,510 1,19 6 Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates /NIC Excise duty and VAT 2,093 1, Bus. 92

97 Parliamentary constituency Redditch Rugby Shrewsbury and Atcham Solihull South Staffordshire Stafford Staffordshire Moorlands Stoke-on-Trent Central Stoke-on-Trent North Stoke-on-Trent South Stone Stourbridge Stratford-on-Avon Sutton Coldfield Tamworth Telford The Wrekin Walsall North Walsall South Region Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates /NIC Excise duty and VAT Bus. 93

98 Parliamentary constituency Warley Warwick and Leamington Bromwich East Bromwich Worcestershire Wolverhampton North East Wolverhampton South East Wolverhampton South Worcester Wyre Forest Amber Valley Ashfield Bassetlaw Bolsover Boston and Skegness Bosworth Broxtowe Charnwood Chesterfield Region East East East East East East East East East Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates /NIC ,087 1, Excise duty and VAT Bus. 94

99 Parliamentary constituency Corby Daventry Derby North Derby South Derbyshire Dales Erewash Gainsborough Gedling Grantham and Stamford Harborough High Peak Kettering Leicester East Leicester South Leicester Lincoln Loughborough Louth and Horncastle Mansfield Region East East East East East East East East East East East East East East East East East East East Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates /NIC Excise duty and VAT Bus. 95

100 Parliamentary constituency Mid Derbyshire Newark North East Derbyshire North Leicestershire Northampton North Northampton South Nottingham East Nottingham North Nottingham South Rushcliffe Rutland and Melton Sherwood Sleaford and North Hykeham South Derbyshire South Holland and The Deepings South Leicestershire South Northamptonshire Wellingborough Barnsley Central Region East East East East East East East East East East East East East East East East East East Yorkshire & The Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates /NIC , Excise duty and VAT Bus. 96

101 Parliamentary constituency Barnsley East Batley and Spen Beverley and Holderness Bradford East Bradford South Bradford Brigg and Goole Calder Valley Cleethorpes Colne Valley Dewsbury Don Valley Doncaster Central Doncaster North East Yorkshire Elmet and Rothwell Great Grimsby Halifax Haltemprice and Howden Region Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates /NIC , Excise duty and VAT Bus. 97

102 Parliamentary constituency Harrogate and Knaresborough Hemsworth Huddersfield Keighley Kingston upon Hull East Kingston upon Hull North Kingston upon Hull and Hessle Leeds Central Leeds East Leeds North East Leeds North Leeds Morley and Outwood Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Penistone and Stocksbridge Pudsey Richmond (Yorks) Rother Valley Rotherham Region Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Yorkshire & The Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates /NIC , ,98 6 1, ,644 2, , Excise duty and VAT Bus. 98

103 Parliamentary constituency Region Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates Scarborough and Whitby Yorkshire & The , Scunthorpe Yorkshire & The Selby and Ainsty Yorkshire & The Sheffield Central Yorkshire & 1,52 The 1 1, ,189 2, Sheffield South East Yorkshire & The Sheffield, Brightside and Yorkshire & Hillsborough The Sheffield, Hallam Yorkshire & The Sheffield, Heeley Yorkshire & The Shipley Yorkshire & The Skipton and Ripon Yorkshire & The , Thirsk and Malton Yorkshire & The Wakefield Yorkshire & The Wentworth and Dearne Yorkshire & The York Central Yorkshire & 1,25 The , York Outer Yorkshire & The Altrincham and Sale North Ashton-under-Lyne North Barrow and Furness North Birkenhead North Blackburn North Blackley and Broughton North /NIC Excise duty and VAT Bus. 99

104 Parliamentary constituency Blackpool North and Cleveleys Region Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates /NIC North Blackpool South North , Bolton North East North Bolton South East North Bolton North Bootle North Burnley North Bury North North Bury South North Carlisle North Cheadle North Chorley North City of Chester North , Congleton North Copeland North Crewe and Nantwich North Denton and Reddish North Eddisbury North Ellesmere Port and Neston North Fylde North Garston and Halewood North Halton North Hazel Grove North Heywood and Middleton North Hyndburn North Knowsley North Lancaster and Fleetwood North Excise duty and VAT Bus. 100

105 Parliamentary constituency Region Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates Leigh North Liverpool, Riverside North 1,93 8 1,557 1,15 4 /NIC Excise duty and VAT 1,728 2, Liverpool, Walton North Liverpool, Wavertree North Liverpool, Derby North Macclesfield North Makerfield North Manchester Central North 2,37 0 2,013 1,52 6 2,268 3, Manchester, Gorton North Manchester, Withington North Morecambe and Lunesdale North Oldham East and Saddleworth North Oldham and Royton North Pendle North Penrith and The Border North Preston North Ribble Valley North Rochdale North Rossendale and Darwen North Salford and Eccles North Sefton Central North South Ribble North Southport North St Helens North North St Helens South and Whiston North Stalybridge and Hyde North Bus. 101

106 Parliamentary constituency Region Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates Stockport North Stretford and Urmston North Tatton North Wallasey North Warrington North North Warrington South North , Weaver Vale North Lancashire North morland and Lonsdale North , Wigan North Wirral South North Wirral North Workington North Worsley and Eccles South North Wyre and Preston North North Wythenshawe and Sale East North Berwick-upon-Tweed North East Bishop Auckland North East Blaydon North East Blyth Valley North East City of Durham North East Darlington North East Easington North East Gateshead North East Hartlepool North East Hexham North East Houghton and Sunderland South North East /NIC Excise duty and VAT Bus. 102

107 Parliamentary constituency Region Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates Jarrow North East Middlesbrough North East Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland North East Newcastle upon Tyne 1,23 North East Central ,089 1, Newcastle upon Tyne East North East Newcastle upon Tyne North North East North Durham North East North Tyneside North East North Durham North East Redcar North East Sedgefield North East South Shields North East Stockton North North East Stockton South North East Sunderland Central North East Tynemouth North East Wansbeck North East Washington and Sunderland North East Aberavon Wales Aberconwy Wales Alyn and Deeside Wales Arfon Wales Blaenau Gwent Wales Brecon and Radnorshire Wales Bridgend Wales Caerphilly Wales /NIC Excise duty and VAT Bus. 103

108 Parliamentary constituency Cardiff Central Region Wales Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT 1,18 5 Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates /NIC 1, ,287 1, Cardiff North Wales Cardiff South and Penarth Wales Cardiff Wales Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Wales Carmarthen and South Pembrokeshire Wales Ceredigion Wales Clwyd South Wales Clwyd Wales Cynon Valley Wales Delyn Wales Dwyfor Meirionnydd Wales Gower Wales Islwyn Wales Llanelli Wales Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Wales Monmouth Wales Montgomeryshire Wales Neath Wales Newport East Wales Newport Wales Ogmore Wales Pontypridd Wales Preseli Pembrokeshire Wales Rhondda Wales Swansea East Wales Excise duty and VAT Bus. 104

109 Parliamentary constituency Region Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates Swansea Wales Torfaen Wales Vale of Clwyd Wales Vale of Glamorgan Wales Wrexham Wales Ynys Mon Wales Aberdeen North Scotland Aberdeen South Scotland Airdrie and Shotts Scotland Angus Scotland Argyll and Bute Scotland Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Scotland Banff and Buchan Scotland Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Scotland Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Scotland Central Ayrshire Scotland Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Scotland Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Scotland Dumfries and Galloway Scotland Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Scotland Dundee East Scotland Dundee Scotland Dunfermline and Fife Scotland East Dunbartonshire Scotland East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Scotland /NIC Excise duty and VAT Bus. 105

110 Parliamentary constituency Region Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates East Lothian Scotland East Renfrewshire Scotland Edinburgh East Scotland Edinburgh North and Leith Scotland , Edinburgh South Scotland Edinburgh South Scotland Edinburgh Scotland Falkirk Scotland Glasgow Central Scotland 1,59 9 1,362 1,08 9 /NIC Excise duty and VAT 1,800 2, Glasgow East Scotland Glasgow North Scotland Glasgow North East Scotland Glasgow North Scotland Glasgow South Scotland Glasgow South Scotland Glenrothes Scotland Gordon Scotland Inverclyde Scotland Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey Scotland Kilmarnock and Loudoun Scotland Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Scotland Lanark and Hamilton East Scotland Linlithgow and East Falkirk Scotland Livingston Scotland Midlothian Scotland Moray Scotland Motherwell and Wishaw Scotland Bus. 106

111 Parliamentary constituency Region Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates Na h-eileanan An Iar Scotland North Ayrshire and Arran Scotland North East Fife Scotland Ochil and South Perthshire Scotland Orkney and Shetland Scotland Paisley and Renfrewshire North Scotland Paisley and Renfrewshire South Scotland Perth and North Perthshire Scotland Ross, Skye and Lochaber Scotland Rutherglen and Hamilton Scotland Stirling Scotland Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Scotland Dunbartonshire Scotland Belfast East Northern Ireland Belfast North Northern Ireland Belfast South Northern Ireland , Belfast Northern Ireland East Antrim Northern Ireland East Londonderry Northern Ireland Fermanagh and South Northern Tyrone Ireland Foyle Northern Ireland Lagan Valley Northern Ireland /NIC Excise duty and VAT Bus. 107

112 Parliamentary constituency Mid Ulster Newry and Armagh North Antrim North Down South Antrim South Down Strangford Upper Bann Tyrone Region Northern Ireland Northern Ireland Northern Ireland Northern Ireland Northern Ireland Northern Ireland Northern Ireland Northern Ireland Northern Ireland Direct employment by age Direct employment by status U FT PT Net CAPEX ( m) Corp /NIC Total estimates ( m) Excise duty, VAT and excise duty on other drinks Bus. Corp Direct estimates /NIC Excise duty and VAT Bus. 108

113 109