2016-BASED HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS

Transcription

1 2016-BASED HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS PLANNING DESIGN ENVIRONMENT PEGASUSGROUP.CO.UK ECONOMICS

2 2016-BASED HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released its 2016-household projections on 20 September 2018, which provide estimates on household change up to The data supersedes the 2014-based projections, which were released in It is important to note that they are not forecasts and provide an indication of the number of additional households that would form if recent demographic trends continue. Over the next 25 years, the number of households in England is projected to increase by 4.0 million, rising from 22.9 million in 2016 to 26.9 million in This equates to 159,000 additional households, which is lower than was previously projected. The 2014-based projections indicated that there would be around 210,000 additional households per year over the 25-year period from The household projections form a key part of the Government s standard method for assessing housing need. When it was first published in September, the standard method calculated an annual housing figure of 266,000. Initial analysis by suggests that this reduces significantly by just over 50,000 when the new projections are factored into the calculation. The government has already said it will be consulting on possible changes to the standard method to account for the lower growth rates, with an announcement expected imminently. Given the standard method focusing on housing need over a 10-year period, has looked at household growth over the period for both the 2014-based and 2016-based projections, to see how each region is impacted. Not all areas are projected to see lower growth by the new data. For example, Wiltshire and Leicestershire see an increase in household numbers based on the new projections. ABSOLUTE CHANGE BETWEEN 2014 & 2016 HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS ( ) District with highest decrease: Birmingham (-1,540 per annum) KEY Annual Change Highest Decrease - 1,500 > > > 0 0 > > 100 Highest Increase 100 > 250 District with highest increase: Wiltshire (247 per annum)

3 2016-BASED HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS INTERACTIVE MAP NORTH North EAST This guide has been produced by to help you navigate the new household projections. Click the Area on the England interactive map for the 2016-Based Household Projections. North NORTH WEST YORKSHIRE AND The Humber THE HUMBER EAST MIDLANDS of England WEST MIDLANDS EAST OF ENGLAND of England SOUTH WEST LONDON South SOUTH EAST South

4 North South of England EAST OF ENGLAND of England 26,880 22,161-4,719 Bedford UA Central Bedfordshire UA 1,767 1, Luton UA 1, Peterborough UA Southend-on-Sea UA Thurrock UA Cambridgeshire County 2,877 1,803-1,074 Essex County 6,118 5, Hertfordshire County 5,766 4,381-1,385 Norfolk County 3,304 2, Suffolk County 2,409 2, PETERBOROUGH CAMBRIDGE EAST OF ENGLAND FELIXSTOWE The of England is expected to see around 22,200 new households per annum between 2018 and 2028 according to the 2016-based projections. This would represent almost 5,000 fewer households per annum in the region when compared with the 2014-based projections. In absolute terms, Essex county is projected to see the biggest annual increase in household numbers by the 2016-based projections just over 5,500. At a district level, ten local authority areas are expected to see higher levels of household growth between 2018 and 2028 in the 2016-based projections notably Colchester (1,100 more households over the tenyear period) and Tendring (800 more households over the ten-year period).

5 North South of England EAST MIDLANDS 16,572 14,492-2,080 Derby UA Leicester UA 1, Nottingham UA 1, Rutland UA Derbyshire County 2,253 2,092 2,092 Leicestershire County 2,557 2,583 2,583 Lincolnshire County 2,470 2,255 2,255 Northamptonshire County Northamptonshire County 3,266 3,097 3,097 2,572 2,437 2,437 DERBY LEICESTER EAST MIDLANDS The is expected to see around 14,500 new households per annum between 2018 and 2028 according to the 2016-based projections. This is 2,000 fewer households per annum than expected over the same period by the 2014-based projections. NORTHAMPTON In absolute terms, Northamptonshire county is projected to see the biggest annual increase in household numbers by the 2016-based projections nearly 3,100. At a district level, thirteen local authority areas are expected to see higher levels of household growth between 2018 and 2028 in the 2016-based projections notably Leicestershire (1,300 more households over the ten-year period) and Hinckley & Bosworth (830 more households over the ten-year period).

6 North South of England LONDON 57,050 34,805-22,245 Barking and Dagenham 1,598 1, Barnet 2,892 1, Bexley 1,256 1, Brent 1, ,172 Bromley 1,882 1, Camden 1,674 1, City of Croydon 2,485 1,412-1,073 Ealing 1, ,145 Enfield 2,351 1, Greenwich 2,085 1, LONDON Hackney 2,239 1, Hammersmith and Fulham Haringey 2,007 1, Harrow 1, Havering 1,342 1, Hillingdon 1,950 1, Hounslow 1, ,049 Islington 1,729 1, Kensington and Chelsea Kingston upon Thames 1, Lambeth 1, Lewisham 2,241 1, Merton 1, Newham 2,557 1,426-1,131 Redbridge 2,094 1, Richmond upon Thames 1, Southwark 2,112 1, Sutton 1, Tower Hamlets 3,388 2, Waltham Forest 1,718 1, Wandsworth 1, minster 1, is expected to see around 34,800 new households per annum between 2018 and 2028 according to the 2016-based projections. This would represent around 22,200 fewer households per annum in the region when compared with the 2014-based projections. In absolute terms, Tower Hamlets local authority is projected to see the biggest annual increase in household numbers by the 2016-based projections approaching 2,500. Every district in is expected to see a lower level of household growth between 2018 and 2028 when the 2016-based projections are compared with the 2014-based projections.

7 North South of England NORTH EAST North 6,004 3,911-2,093 County Durham UA 1,279 1, Darlington UA Hartlepool UA Middlesbrough UA Northumberland UA Redcar and Cleveland UA Stockton-on-Tees UA Tyne and Wear (Met County) 2,956 1,649-1,307 NORTH EAST NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE MIDDLESBROUGH The North is expected to see around 3,900 new households per annum between 2018 and 2028 according to the 2016-based projections. This would represent almost 2,100 fewer households per annum in the region when compared with the 2014-based projections. In absolute terms, Tyne & Wear (Met County) is projected to see the biggest annual increase in household numbers by the 2016-based projections approaching 1,700. Redcar & Cleveland is expected to see a slightly higher level of growth by the 2016-based projections, which would equate to 18 more households per annum compared with the 2014-based projections. Every other district in the North is expected to see a lower level of household growth between 2018 and 2028 when the 2016-based projections are compared with the 2014-based projections.

8 North South of England NORTH WEST 18,676 14,116-4,560 Blackburn with Darwen UA Blackpool UA Cheshire UA Cheshire and Chester UA Halton UA Warrington UA Cumbria County Greater Manchester (Met County) 9,365 6,806-2,559 Lancashire County 2,583 1, Merseyside (Met County) 3,538 2, NORTH WEST BLACKPOOL The is expected to see around 14,100 new households per annum between 2018 and 2028 according to the 2016-based projections. This would represent approximately 4,600 fewer households in the region when compared with the 2014-based projections. LIVERPOOL MANCHESTER In absolute terms, Greater Manchester (Met County) is projected to see the biggest annual increase in household numbers by the 2016-based projections just under 7,000. At a district level, four local authority areas in the are expected to see higher levels of household growth between 2018 and 2028 in the 2016-based projections notably Cheshire & Chester (1,100 more households over the ten-year period).

9 North South of England SOUTH EAST South 37,974 30,439-7,535 Bracknell Forest UA Brighton and Hove UA 1, Isle of Wight UA Medway UA 1,321 1, Milton Keynes UA 1,462 1, Portsmouth UA Reading UA Slough UA Southampton UA Berkshire UA Windsor and Maidenhead UA Wokingham UA Buckinghamshire County 2,136 1, Sussex County 2,789 2, Hampshire County 4,665 3, Kent County 7,740 6, Oxfordshire County 2,416 1, Surrey County 4,760 3,074-1,686 Sussex County 4,224 3, OXFORD READING SOUTH EAST BRIGHTON The South is expected to see around 30,400 new households per annum between 2018 and 2028 according to the 2016 based projections. This would represent approximately 7,500 fewer households in the region when compared with the 2014-based projections. In absolute terms, Kent county is projected to see the biggest annual increase in household numbers by the 2016-based projections just under 6,800. At a district level, five local authority areas in the South are expected to see higher levels of household growth between 2018 and 2028 in the 2016-based projections notably Aylesbury Vale (1,200 more households over the ten-year period) and Berkshire (570 more households over the ten-year period).

10 North South of England SOUTH WEST South 20,995 18,788-2,206 Bath and North Somerset UA Bournemouth UA 1, Bristol City of UA 1,860 1, Cornwall UA 2,181 1, Isles of Scilly UA North Somerset UA 1, Plymouth UA Poole UA GLOUCESTER South Gloucestershire UA 1,123 1,119-4 Swindon UA Torbay UA BATH Wiltshire UA 1,519 1, Devon County 3,009 2, Dorset County 1,529 1, BIDEFORD SOUTH WEST Gloucestershire County 2,540 2, Somerset County 2,156 2, The South is expected to see around 18,800 new households per annum between 2018 and 2028 according to the 2016-based projections. This would represent just over 2,200 fewer households in the region when compared with the 2014-based projections. PLYMOUTH In absolute terms, Devon is projected to see the biggest annual increase in household numbers by the 2016-based projections just under 2,900. At a district level, eight local authority areas in the South are expected to see higher levels of household growth between 2018 and 2028 in the 2016-based projections notably Wiltshire (2,470 more households over the ten-year period), Devon (500 more households over the ten-year period) and Bath & North Somerset (500 more households over the ten-year period).

11 North South of England WEST MIDLANDS 18,711 15,315-3,396 Herefordshire UA Shropshire UA Stoke-on-Trent UA Telford and Wrekin UA Staffordshire County 2,060 1, Warwickshire County 1,851 1, (Met County) 10,601 8,065-2,536 Worcestershire County 1,588 1, WEST MIDLANDS BIRMINGHAM WORCESTER HEREFORD The is expected to see around 15,000 new households per annum between 2018 and 2028 according to the 2016-based projections. This would represent almost 3,400 fewer households in the region when compared with the 2014-based projections. In absolute terms, (Met County) is projected to see the biggest annual increase in household numbers by the 2016-based projections just over 8,000 although this is well below the annual growth of 10,600 predicted by the 2014-based projections. At a district level, seven local authority areas are expected to see higher levels of household growth between 2018 and 2028 in the 2016-based projections notably Wychavon (1,300 more households over the ten-year period) and Telford & Wrekin (400 more households over the ten-year period).

12 North South of England YORKSHIRE & THE HUMBER Yorkshire & 14,828 11,018-3,809 Riding of Yorkshire UA Kingston upon Hull, City of UA North Lincolnshire UA North Lincolnshire UA York UA North Yorkshire County 1,179 1, South Yorkshire (Met County) Yorkshire (Met County) 3,832 3, ,178 4,808-2,369 LEEDS YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER HULL SHEFFIELD Yorkshire & is expected to see around 11,000 new households per annum between 2018 and 2028 according to the 2016-based projections. This would represent around 3,800 fewer households in the region when compared with the 2014-based projections. In absolute terms, Yorkshire (Met County) is projected to see the biggest increase in household numbers by the 2016-based projections just over 4,800. At a district level, four local authority areas are expected to see higher levels of household growth between 2018 and 2028 in the 2016-based projections notably Barnsley (600 more households over the ten-year period) and Ryedale (340 more households).

13 SUMMARY The 2016-based projections indicate that based on past trends, household growth in England is expected to be around 25.0% lower than previously thought. Household growth is expected to be slower in every region, although as the analysis presented in this report shows, a number of districts are still projected to see higher levels of growth when the 2016-based figures are compared with the 2014-based estimates. One of the main implications of the new projections is the impact they will have on the Government s standard methodology for assessing housing need. The immediate conclusion to draw from the projections is that fewer homes are needed across the country. However, this conclusion ignores several issues when assessing future housing requirements. Arguably the most important issue is that the Government has already committed to building 300,000 new homes per annum by the mid2020s to try and solve the housing crisis. Its standard method provides a baseline position of housing requirements for every district in England. The current baseline position is 266,000 homes per annum, although s analysis suggests that this reduces by just over 50,000 per annum when the new projections are factored into the calculation. The standard method sets the minimum level of growth in an area and districts can consider other factors when looking at future housing requirements, including the impact of growth strategies and infrastructure investment. For example, at a time when many areas are in the process of developing their Local Industrial Strategies to boost growth, this means the overall housing figure for many areas is likely to be considerably higher. The Government has already said it will be consulting on possible changes to the standard method to account for the lower growth rates and this means the new projections should only be considered as a starting point for assessing housing requirements, rather than as providing the complete picture of future need based projections 2014-based projections South South North 0 100, , , , ,000 Change in household numbers, For more information please contact: Chris May - Executive Director Planner Birmingham Office e: chris.may@pegasusgroup.co.uk t: Richard Cook - Associate Economics Manchester Office e: richard.cook@pegasusgroup.co.uk t: Hanna Staton - Associate Planner Birmingham Office e: hanna.staton@pegasusgroup.co.uk t: ,000

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