11 December Inverness Airport Outline Business Case
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1 11 December 2015
2 Outline of Presentation Overview of the Demand Forecasting Timetabling Assumptions Calibration of the Demand Profiles Demand Forecasts Summary of the Benefits Page 2
3 Overview of the Demand Forecasting Logit- based mode-choice spreadsheet models Airport passengers Airport and Inverness Airport Business Park (IABP) staff Tornagrain residents Predicts demand by disaggregating the relevant movements by traveller type, time period and origin/destination Compares total demand, time and money costs for car taxi (airport passengers only), existing public transport and the new improved public transport alternatives for each movement Use of the station is split into walk-in and drive-in variants Tornagrain and IABP development phased in over time The current model does NOT model airport parking location choice Page 3
4 Timetabling Issues Our Study considered detailed local timetabling on a train-by-train basis (constrained by need to enter/leave the relevant area at the same times as in the current timetable) This suggested that most, but not all, existing train services could squeeze in an extra stop Subsequent meetings with Network Rail/abellio suggested that it should be possible to adjust the relevant timetables so allow all existing services at the new station We (conservatively) assume that the extra stop would add 3 minutes to the relevant journey times This extra journey time is treated as a disbenefit to all existing through passengers on this section of the A <->I route, (ie with no demand response) In addition, the modelling assumes the addition of 3 additional Elgin-Inverness services per day, in each direction (1 x early AM Elgin->Inverness, 2 x Inter-peak E<-> I & 1 late-night I-> E), all of which are assumed to stop at the new station The modelling does not include any medium/long-term possibilities of a more-regular (eg hourly) service on the Aberdeen<- > Inverness route Page 4
5 Geographic Analysis of Airport Surface Access Patterns Airport Passengers Page 5
6 Geographic Analysis of Airport Surface Access Patterns Airport Staff Page 6
7 Structure of the Airport Passenger Model Total Airport Passenger Demand Visitors Local Residents Hire Car No Hire Car Long Stay Day trip Mode choice: Taxi / Kiss & Fly / PT Car Available No Car Available Car Available Mode choice: Taxi / Kiss & Fly / PT / Parking Mode choice: Taxi / PT Mode choice: Taxi / Kiss & Fly / PT / Parking Page 7
8 Observed versus Modelled Mode Split Local Residents Page 8
9 Observed versus Modelled Demand by Mode and Origin Local Residents Page 9
10 Observed versus Modelled Mode Split Visitors Page 10
11 Observed versus Modelled Demand by Mode and Origin Visitors Page 11
12 Timetabling Issues Our Study considered detailed local timetabling on a train-by-train basis (constrained by need to enter/leave the relevant area at the same times as in the current timetable) This suggested that most, but not all, existing train services could squeeze in an extra stop Subsequent meetings with Network Rail/Abellio suggested that it should be possible to adjust the relevant timetables to allow all existing services at the new station We (conservatively) assume that the extra stop would add 3 minutes to the relevant journey times This extra journey time is treated as a disbenefit to all existing through passengers on this section of the A <->I route, (ie with no demand response) In addition, the modelling assumes the addition of 3 additional Elgin-Inverness services per day, in each direction (1 x early AM Elgin->Inverness, 2 x Inter-peak E<-> I & 1 late-night I-> E), all of which are assumed to stop at the new station The modelling does not include any medium/long-term possibilities of a more-regular (eg hourly) service on the Aberdeen<- > Inverness route Page 12
13 Predicted Demand for the New Station by Station and Purpose Return Rail Trips Per Day Airport Passengers Airport/IABP Staff Tornagrain residents Page 13
14 Predicted Demand for the New Station by Station and Purpose Return Rail Trips Per Day Airport Passengers Airport/IABP Staff Tornagrain residents Page 14
15 Top 10 Demand Segments by Station and Purpose Return Rail Trips Per Day Page 15
16 Disaggregation of 60-year Benefits year Benefits Page 16
17 Summary of Costs & Benefits Summary of Benefits Total PT Revenue 18.5 M Taxi revenue M Parking Revenue -5.4 M User benefits 33.9 M HIAL contribution (shuttle bus & car park barrier) -2.9 M Developer contribution -0.5 M PVB (revenue + user benefits - disbenefits) 24.4 M Net Cost to Government (PVC) 4.5 M NPV 19.9 M BCR 5.4 M Page 17
18 Discussion Page 18
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