Tourism Trends. Humphrey Walwyn Head of VisitEngland Research October 2018

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1 Tourism Trends Humphrey Walwyn Head of VisitEngland Research October

2 England Research & Evaluation GBTS - Overnights (statutory research & official statistic) GBDVS - Day (statutory/ official) Occupancy (statutory/ official) Annual Attractions Survey (official) Business monitor Discover England Fund research programme Brand tracker Evaluation 2

3 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Domestic holiday trips have grown over the longer term, whilst VFR and business trips have slightly declined (m) Domestic Overnight Tourism in England Rolling 12 Month Trend Av. Annual Growth Holiday +1.3% VFR -0.9% Business -0.1% Source: GBTS Average annual growth figure calculated from average of past 12 month % changes from June 2017-June

4 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr saw strong growth in domestic holidays, which has carried over into this year. Encouragingly, VFR and business trips have started to show signs of recovery (m) Domestic Overnight Tourism in England Rolling 12 Month Trend Av. Annual Growth Holiday +1.3% VFR -0.9% Business -0.1% Past 12 Months Holiday +3.3% VFR +3.2% Business +8.5% Source: GBTS Past 12 month figure calculated from 12 month rolling trend data for June 2018 vs. June

5 The number of domestic holidays taken in 2017 in England equalled the record that was set in 2009 (staycation boom) Domestic holidays in England m Increase in domestic holidays in England in 2017 vs % Equalled the record previously set in 2009 at the time of the staycation boom Source: GBTS 5

6 7 out of 9 English regions increased in domestic holiday trips year on year in 2017 North West 2017 vs increase +17% On par with record volume of 2009 North East 2017 vs increase +24% Highest volume since 2013 South East 2017 vs decrease -13% But this followed +16% increase in 2016 vs Source: GBTS 6

7 Short trips growth trend continues, however longer trips also saw growth in (m) 35 Domestic Holiday in England Av. Annual Growth 2017 vs % +7% % +3% nights 4+ nights Source: GBTS 7

8 All months of 2017 were above the long-term average for domestic holidays in England. (m) 9 Month of domestic holiday trip, England January February March April May June July August September October November December Average Source: GBTS

9 Most months of 2018 have been above average for holiday trips to England, with May particularly strong (m) 9 Month of domestic holiday trip, England January February March April May June July August September October November December Average Source: GBTS

10 Overnight trips have grown year on year in January to June. Holidays continue to increase, and VFR and business trips have shown signs of recovery % change in domestic overnight trips, Jan-June 2018 in England (vs. previous year) Overnight trips of all purposes 3% 4% Spend Holiday VFR Business 4% 1% 4% 7% 4% 4% 9% 11% Source: GBTS Spend Spend Spend 10

11 Domestic day visits volume has declined over six years. However, value has increased, but under inflation. (m) Domestic Day Visits in England Rolling 12 Month Trend 70,000 60,000 50,000 Av. Annual Growth Total Day Visits Volume -1.8% Value +0.5% , , ,000 10, Source: GBDVS Past 12 month figure calculated from 12 month rolling trend data for August 18 vs. August

12 Activities core to tourism have declined in volume at a lower rate than total day visits. Value has increased above inflation. (m) 1800 Activities Core to Tourism Day Visits in England Rolling 12 Month Trend 70,000 Av. Annual Growth ,000 50, , , ,000 10,000 - Core Tourism Activities Volume -0.6% Value +2% Source: GBDVS Past 12 month figure calculated from 12 month rolling trend data for August 18 vs. August

13 Summer Total Day Visits continued to decline year on year. Activities core to tourism were flat year on year, but increased value. (m) Activities Core to Tourism Day Visits in England Rolling 12 Month Trend 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Jun-Aug 18 vs Jun-Aug 17 Total Day Visits Volume -1.8% Value +0.5% ,000 20,000 10,000 - Core Tourism Activities Volume 0% Value +13% Source: GBDVS Past 12 month figure calculated from 12 month rolling trend data for August 18 vs. August

14 The gap between consumer confidence in their Personal Financial Situation vs the General Economic Situation is the largest it s been since the financial crisis General Economic Situation - next 12 months Personal Financial Situation - next 12 months pts pts Jul-18 Jan-18 Jul-17 Jan-17 Jul-16 Jan-16 Jul-15 Jan-15 Jul-14 Jan-14 Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Source: GfK / Eurostat Consumer Confidence Monitor non-seasonally Adjusted 14

15 Inbound Trends 15

16 2017 was a record year for inbound tourism. England saw a 4% increase in trips and an 8% increase in spend year on year. (m) Inbound Tourism to England m Spend ( bn) bn Spend Source: IPS 16

17 Q shows decline in visits and spend year on year, but this is coming off the back of a record Q (m) 10 9 Inbound Tourism to England Q bn Spend ( bn) m Spend Source: IPS 17

18 Attractions Performance 18

19 More attractions reported increased visitor numbers than reduced numbers throughout 2017 Percentage of surveyed attractions reporting increased / decreased visitor numbers Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Sep Up Down Source: VE Business Confidence Monitor 19

20 In 2018, attractions reported a tough Easter, but most believe that the summer holiday period was better than in 2017 Percentage of surveyed attractions reporting increased / decreased visitor numbers Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Sep Up Down Source: VE Business Confidence Monitor 20

21 More attractions reported increased visitors as a result of the summer heatwave, but over 1 in 4 stated that their numbers were down as a result. Impact of summer heatwave - attractions % net 20 8 Much more visitors than usual No effect on visitor numbers Slightly more visitors than usual Slightly fewer visitors than usual A lot fewer visitors than usual 21 Source: VE Business Confidence Monitor -Thinking specifically about this year s heat wave in the UK, how has the good weather affected your business?

22 Over half of outdoor attractions reported increased visitor numbers as a result of the summer heatwave. Indoor attractions were less positive, with around 1/3 reporting reduced numbers Impact of summer heatwave - attractions % net -10% net Outdoor Indoor Much more visitors than usual Slightly more visitors than usual No effect on visitor numbers Slightly fewer visitors than usual A lot fewer visitors than usual 22 Source: VE Business Confidence Monitor -Thinking specifically about this year s heat wave in the UK, how has the good weather affected your business?

23 Find out more at 23

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