Caribbean market performance

Transcription

1 Sarah Smalley Managing Director Caribbean market performance

2 Who are GfK Ascent? Ascent-MI launched million individual buying choices captured each year Italy France Germany Netherland Russia UK Over 50% of ABTA agents provide live acquisition data together with a number of major Tour Operators 82% of all UK packaged holidays are captured (source IPS data) Countries currently covered by GfK:

3 UK the largest European country of origin for the Caribbean Britons #2 holidays spenders per capita Holidays are a necessity not a luxury Caribbean accounts for 35% of all UK long haul travel Netherlands United Kingdom Germany Canada France Italy United States Japan Russian Federation Expenditures per Capita US$ $1,301 $1,121 $1,108 $810 $693 $519 $262 $218 $175 Data as collected by UNWTO, S09 Caribbean Passengers by Country S09 Share of Caribbean 23.3% 15.8% 3.7% 46.0% UK FRANCE ITALY GERMANY RUSSIA NETHERLANDS 4.5% 1.4% 1.2% 0.6% 3.3% 1.2% UK FRANCE ITA LY GERMANY RUSSIA NETHERLA NDS 6.9% 4.4%

4 UK Major Economical changes: when the recession bites.. UK interest rates remain low Average earnings (excluding bonus) slowest growth rate since records began Highest unemployment levels since mid 90 s Average household wealth - 31,000 Consumer confidence index lower than in last recession 4 Unemployment GfK Consumer Confidence Index % Source: National Statistics website: Research carried out by GfK NOP on behalf of the European Commission

5 UK Major Economical changes: when the recession bites.. Exchange rate 1= 1.12 (Sept 2009) Exchange rate 1=$1.63 (Sept 2009) Over the past 16 years, home owners have been borrowing against their always growing properties value Average house price decrease 40,000 Consumer borrowing down by 10bn since Euro/GBP Exchange Rate Property Transactions in the UK Jan- 06 May Sep Jan- 07 May Sep Jan- 08 May Sep Jan- 09 May Sep Source: Bank of England: Source: HM Revenue & Customs:

6 Overview of the UK market 6 Summer 2008: consolidation of the `Big four Summer 2009: operators vastly reduce capacity Summer 2010: delayed launch of short and mid haul programmes Bank of England fragility of 2010 Consumer confidence indexes steady for 3 rd consecutive month Summer 2010 Summer 2009 Summer 2008 Summer 2010: -13% direct channel -21.3% vs. -9.4% shop -2% continued failure of online channels to launch new seasons effectively? -10% -13%

7 Summer 2010 Key UK destinations 7 Spain remains #1 S10 TO Sep 09 Share S09 TO Sep 08 Share Trend Caribbean more resilient than other destinations, gaining share Spain Turkey Ocean Cruise 28.1% 15.7% 12.9% 31.5% 10.7% 9.2% -21% +30% +23% star destinations: 4 5 Greece USA 12.7% 8.0% 14.1% 8.7% -21% -18% Turkey Ocean Cruise Egypt Tunisia Cyprus Caribbean Egypt Portugal Tunisia 5.0% 4.6% 4.4% 2.1% 2.0% 5.9% 4.5% 4.0% 2.1% 1.5% -25% -9% -2% -15% +19% Turkey fastest destination +30% Tunisia +19% growth Mexico Italy 1.8% 1.6% 2.5% 1.7% -34% -17%

8 Summer 2010 Look out for all inclusive and mid haul! The rise and rise of all inclusive market +32% All inclusive 93.2% of all Caribbean bookings Customers are turning towards Mid Haul Caribbean: a key long haul destination (35%) that is performing better than the long haul market 8 Board Basis Destination Total LTM Short Haul Mid Haul 93% All Inclusive -5.8% Long Haul 35% 42% 49% -13.3% LTM Mid Haul Long Haul Caribbean -19.7% -18.2%

9 Summer 2010 The importance of Agents in the Higher price points Overall market sees reduction in holidays priced over 799, -1.5% Lower priced holidays impacted 85% of Caribbean bookings above this price point Agents are important 77% of bookings over 799 are sold trough a shop 73% of the Caribbean bookings are made through a shop 9 Shop vs. Direct Caribbean Booking region 39.4% 60.6% over 799 up to % 72.8% 9.8% 15.7% 7.3% 9.3% 2.9% 20.3% 5.4% 3.1% 5.2% Greater London South East East Anglia South West Wales West Midlands East Midlands North West Yorkshire North Scotland 8.7% 11.1% Shop Direct

10 Summer 2010 What about the Caribbean Countries? Dominican Republic, the top #1 destination, is suffering the most (-15%) Cuba increases market share to 28% Jamaica to 15.5% Caribbean Cruises grow +59% Mediterranean Cruise +51% Alaskan Cruise +3% 10 Caribbean: Growth S10 vs. S09 Caribbean: Market Share S10 vs. S09 58% Dominican Republic Cuba 45% 40% 35% Jamaica 30% 11% 4% 10% 7% 12% Caribbean Cruise Barbados Aruba St Lucia 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% S10 S09-15%

11 Summer 2010 Are booking patterns changing or is the market recovering? Change in importance of booking months August and September now more important Late launch of S10 or successful marketing? July saw market increase for S10 bookings, not replicated by Caribbean resurgence in September 11 Caribbean: Share of Bookings by Month Booking Growth % S10 V 09 8% 6% prior to May S09 S10 26% 23% 21% 20% 21% 20% 16% 14% 14% 12% May June July Aug Sept 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% -70% -80% prior to May Market Caribbean May June July Aug Sept

12 Summary 12 The UK and the Caribbean are of strategic importance Caribbean has performed ahead of the market despite the UK economic position and the higher price it commands Bookings are being made later in the cycle August and September booking months have become more important Understanding and driving sales via Travel agency shops, and key UK regions offer potential enhanced sales Understanding the wider market is key, eg. duration and product preferences

13 Contact details 13 Sarah Smalley - Managing Director sarah.smalley@gfkascent-mi.com Stephan Lamouroux - Senior Account Manager stephan.lamouroux@gfkascent-mi.com Tel:+44 (0)

14 Appendix Section Caribbean market performance

15 Terminology Summer Season: passengers departing between the 1 st May up to 31 st October 15 Winter Season: passengers departing between the 1 st November up to 31 st April Summer 2010: Bookings to date made for the summer 2010 period, giving you and early view of the market trend and development Direct: bookings made online (web) + those made via a call centre Shop: bookings made at a Travel Agencies retail outlets Haul Departure: Please contact us for a full list Stephan Lamouroux - stephan.lamouroux@gfkascent-mi.com Tel: +44 (0)

16 Summer 2010 Is the traditional duration changing? Traditional Operator model of 7 and 14 nights changing 90% Caribbean bookings 14 nights nights market up by 22.5% 8-13 nights up by 13% on Long Haul 8-13 Nights Share% Duration Performance 22.5% 6 nights or under 7 nights 8 to 13 nights 14 nights 15 to 28 nights 6% 8.4% 10.9% -5.0% -11.1% -10.9% -19.9% S08 S09 S10

17 Summer 2010 Families are suffering the most! Not for Cuba and Jamaica Family booking the hardest hit within overall market, -17% family 17 Caribbean Summer 10 Family bookings 34% Dominican republic -21% Reverse trend for Cuba and Jamaica Caribbean: Family % Caribbean: Family performance 68% 71% 67% 60% Non Family Family 20% 15% 10% 5% 16% 9% 10% 1% 0% 32% 29% 33% Caribbean Cuba Dominican Rep 40% Jamaica -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Caribbean Cuba Dominican -5% Rep -12% -16% -21% Jamaica

18 Questions? Please feel free to contact me 18 Stephan Lamouroux - Senior Account Manager stephan.lamouroux@gfkascent-mi.com Tel:+44 (0)

19 Sarah Smalley Managing Director Caribbean market performance