Mekong River Commission

Transcription

1 Mekong River Commission MRC Flash Flood Guidance System (MRCFFGS) Performance of MRC Flash Flood Guidance System during flood season November 2016 MRC/OSP Phnom Penh 1

2 Content Background Information on establishment of the MRC Flash Flood Guidance System. MRC Flash Flood Guidance System in Operational form. MRC FFGS daily operation during flood season Lesson learned from daily operations of MRC FFGS during flood season Conclusions and Recommendations. 2

3 Background information on FFG system MRCFFS Development Partners Flash Flood Guidance System Implementation in MRC member countries (Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam) through funding from USAID Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA). Asia Flood Network - Program for Flood Mitigation in Asia. Hydrologic Research Center (HRC) was technical partner and implementing organization. Other: U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 3 3

4 Hydrometeorological Hazards of the Mekong Region Mekong region has a tropical monsoon climate with abundant rainfall. One of most disasterprone region in the world suffering from many kinds of natural disasters. Typhoons Flash floods River floods Landslides Flash floods from typhoons are an annual occurrence and can cause major damage and loss of life 4

5 Structure of MRC FFG System Global Satellite Observations NOAA Hydro-Estimator Hourly Global Rainfall RFMMC RFMMC Data Server Lao PDR Surface Data Cambodia Surface Data Thailand Surface Data MRC Viet Nam Surface Data MRCFFG Computational Server MRCFFG Dissemination Server Authorized Access to Dissemination Server Only Meteorologists Hydrologists Others 5

6 Forecast interface Designed for quick access and easy navigation to regional and country products Provides one access point for meteorological and hydrologic data needed to make decisions for flash flood warnings Can navigate to earlier products Design developed with input from regional center and countries. FFG product updated every 6 hours at 00:00,06:00,12:00,18:00 UTC / 6

7 Concept of Daily MRC FFG Operation Implement an end-to-end flash flood warning system to improve responses by governments, local governments, international organizations, NGOs, private sector, and public to occurrences of flash floods. FFG Product access : User name: mrc ; password : mrcffg-2009 Assessment And Analysis Response Detection Dissemination 7

8 Daily Operation of The MRC FFG System

9 Daily Operation of MRCFFG Flash Flood Guidance Product at the MRC website In order to contribute to better preparedness and reduction of life loses and damages due to flash floods for flash flood vulnerable communities in LMB. The RFMMC has initiated the MRCFFGS operations and carry out testing at beginning of flood season Since August 2010 a number of FFGS products have been processed and published twice-daily, at 08:30 and 14:30 (during the heavy weather condition) on the Flood Pages of MRC website. 9

10 FFG Scale 1 hour FFG scale 3 hour FFG scale 6 hour FFG scale Flash Flood Watch Flash Flood Warning Flash Flood Watch Flash Flood Warning Flash Flood Watch Flash Flood Warning The FFG value indicates the total volume of rainfall over the given duration which is just enough to cause bank full flow in the draining stream outlet. Consequently, rainfall volumes of the same duration that are greater than the FFG value indicate a likelihood of overbank flows at the draining stream outlet.

11 Information on flash flood risk areas provided by MRCFFG system on MRC flood forecast Pages List of location of flash flood risk areas with villages, districts and provinces name ( Flash flood warning list)

12 Flood Season 2016 Flash Flood in the Mekong Region

13 Flash Flood in Xayaboury (Lao PDR) 23 July 2016 Date of FFG produc 22/07/ :00 UTC time 1hour Flash Flood Guidance in Lao 3hour Flash Flood Guidance in Lao Provinces Districts Villages FFG Value Provinces Districts Villages FFG Value No Risk Areas to Flash FloOccurence Bokeo Pha Oudo KANG Bokeo Pha Oudo MOKPORN Bokeo Pha Oudo MOKSOUK Bokeo Pha Oudo MOKKHA KANG Bokeo Pha Oudo SIBOUNHEUANG Bokeo Pha Oudo PHA OU DOM Bokeo Pha Oudo THINKEO NEUA Xayaboury Xienghon MOK SA KIEN Xayaboury Xienghon HONG KHOU Xayaboury Xienghon KEW KENE Xayaboury Xienghon NGEW Xayaboury Xienghon NAM BENG Xayaboury Xienghon LAO OU Xayaboury Xienghon LAO SA NO 45.09

14 Flash Flood in Northern part of Viet Nam Tropical storm Mirinae (28 July 2016) Date of FFG products 28/07/ :00 UTC time 1hour Flash Flood Guidance in Vietnam 3hours Flash Flood Guidance in Vietnam Provinces Districts FFG value Provinces Districts FFG Value No Risk Areas to Flash Flood Occurence Nghe An Tuong Duong Nghe An Con Cuong 49.78

15 Flash Flood in Lao Cai ( Viet Nam) Tropical storm NIDA (5 Aug 2016) Date of FFG products 03/08/ :00 UTC time 1hour Flash Flood Guidance in Vietnam 3hours Flash Flood Guidance in Vietnam Provinces Districts FFG value Provinces Districts FFG Value Lao Cai Bat Xat Lao Cai Bat Xat Bac Kan TX. Bac Kan Lao Cai Sa Pa Bac Kan Bach Thong Lao Cai Than Uyen Lai Chau Phong Tho Bac Kan TX. Bac Kan Bac Kan Bach Thong Lai Chau Phong Tho Dak Lak Dak R'Lap Dak Lak Dak Nong Lam Dong Bao Lam 47.03

16 Flash Flood in Bokeo of Lao PDR ITCZ (13 Aug 2016) Date of FFG produc 12/08/ :00 UTC time 1hour Flash Flood Guidance in Lao 3hour Flash Flood Guidance in Lao Provinces Districts Villages FFG Value Provinces Districts Villages FFG Value Phongsaly Phongsaly LAOTHENE Phongsaly Phongsaly LAOTHENE Phongsaly Phongsaly LAOSE Phongsaly Phongsaly LAOSE Phongsaly Phongsaly TASENPHONG Phongsaly Phongsaly TASENPHONG Phongsaly Nhot ou TAKOUXANG Phongsaly May HOUAYSONG TA Phongsaly Nhot ou PACHEOLIN Phongsaly May HOUAYSONG NE Phongsaly Nhot ou PEULAOXOU KA Phongsaly May HOUAYVIK NEU Phongsaly Nhot ou LAO PHOU CHA Phongsaly May HOUAYVIK TAI Phongsaly Nhot ou PEULAOXOU MA Phongsaly May NAMNGA Vientiane Vangvieng NAMON TAI Phongsaly May NAMKHAM Vientiane Vangvieng NAMON NEUA Phongsaly May OMKANENG Vientiane Vangvieng PHONESAWAN Phongsaly May HOUAYVANGSO Vientiane Vangvieng VANGHEUA Phongsaly May HOUAY OUN Vientiane Vangvieng PHONEKEO Phongsaly May PONGHY Vientiane Vangvieng NA OM Phongsaly May TINTOK Vientiane Vangvieng NANGEUN NEU Phongsaly May OMPALONG Vientiane Vangvieng PHONEYANG Phongsaly May PONGHY Vientiane Vangvieng NANGEUN TAI Phongsaly May TANLOTONG Vientiane Vangvieng NAMPAT NEUA Phongsaly May HOUAYVANGKA Xaysomboun SpeLongxan NAMYING Phongsaly May NANGEUN Xaysomboun SpeLongxan XIENGMI Phongsaly May POUNGKHAO Xaysomboun SpeLongxan NAPHO Phongsaly May VANG KAO Xaysomboun SpeLongxan VANGLUANG Phongsaly May OMTALEUM Xaysomboun SpeHom VIENGKEO Phongsaly Nhot ou TAKOUXANG Phongsaly Nhot ou XEOLIXOU Phongsaly Nhot ou PHINCHANG KA Phongsaly Nhot ou PHINCHANG KA Phongsaly Nhot ou PACHEOLIN Phongsaly Nhot ou KOUNGCHI Phongsaly Nhot ou PEULAOXOU KA Phongsaly Nhot ou LAO PHOU CHA Phongsaly Nhot ou PEULAOXOU MA Luangnamtha Viengphou NAMTIENG Luangnamtha Viengphou TONGMANG Luangnamtha Viengphou LAIYANG Luangnamtha Nalae LA ANG Luangnamtha Nalae TAKHEUNG Luangnamtha Nalae KAYE Luangnamtha Nalae KHANEUNG Luangnamtha Nalae SALEUANG Luangnamtha Nalae MONGKHO Luangnamtha Nalae SAKRANG Luangnamtha Nalae NEUNGPHET Bokeo Pha Oudo BONGLAOSOUN Bokeo Pha Oudo HANGDOI Bokeo Pha Oudo SAMIN 46.24

17 Flash flood in Lao Cai of Viet Nam ITCZ (13Aug 2016) Date of FFG products 12/08/ :00 UTC time 1hour Flash Flood Guidance in Vietnam 3hours Flash Flood Guidance in Vietnam Provinces Districts FFG value Provinces Districts FFG Value Lao Cai Bat Xat Ha Giang Yen Minh Lao Cai Sa Pa Ha Giang Bac Me Lao Cai Than Uyen Ha Giang Hoang Su Phi Lai Chau Phong Tho Ha Giang Vi Xuyen Ha Giang Xin Man Ha Giang Bac Quang Cao Bang Bao Lac Lao Cai TX. Lao Cai Lao Cai Muong Khuong Lao Cai Bat Xat Lao Cai Bac Ha Lao Cai Bao Thang Lao Cai Sa Pa Lao Cai Bao Yen Lao Cai Than Uyen Lai Chau Muong Te Lai Chau Phong Tho Lai Chau Sin Ho Lai Chau Muong Lay 42.61

18 Flash flood in northern provinces of Thailand ITCZ (14-15Aug 2016) Date of FFG products 15/08/ :00 UTC time 1hour Flash Flood Guidance in Thailand 3hour Flash Flood Guidance in Thailand Provinces Districts FFG Value Provinces Districts FFG Value Chiang Rai Chiang Khong Chiang Rai Chiang Khong Chiang Rai Chiang Saen Chiang Rai Chiang Saen Chiang Rai Thoeng Chiang Rai Thoeng Nan King Amphoe Song Kh Chiang Rai Mae Suai Nan Song Kwae Chiang Mai Fang Lampang Ngao Chiang Mai Mae Ai Lampang Wang Nua Nakhon RatchasimaPak Chong Phayao Muang Phayao Nakhon RatchasimaWang Nam Khieo Phayao Chiang Kham Nan Mae Charim Nan King Amphoe Bokuai Nan King Amphoe Song Khae Nan Song Kwae Prachinburi Prachantakham Lampang Ngao Lampang Wang Nua Phayao Muang Phayao Phayao Chiang Kham 26.05

19 Flash flood in Luang Prabang Lao PDR ITCZ (18 Aug 2016) Date of FFG produc 18/08/ :00 UTC time 1hour Flash Flood Guidance in Lao 3hour Flash Flood Guidance in Lao Provinces Districts Villages FFG Value Provinces Districts Villages FFG Value No Risk Areas to Flash FloOccurence Luangprabang Ngoi HUAYLAAN Luangprabang Ngoi LONGKHOUN Luangprabang Ngoi CHORMYING Luangprabang Ngoi HUAYTHONG Luangprabang Ngoi PHONEXAI Luangprabang Ngoi HUAYNGONE Luangprabang Ngoi HUAYKHONG TA Luangprabang Ngoi HUAYKHONG NE Luangprabang Ngoi KEWKAAN Khammuane Bualapha NA PHAO Khammuane Bualapha NONG BOUA Savannakhet Phine PATONG Savannakhet Phine KAPANG Sekong Kaleum SONGKHORN Sekong Kaleum HATPAE Sekong Kaleum CHING Sekong Kaleum TAHEW Sekong Kaleum VAK NEUA Sekong Kaleum VAK TAI Champasak Pathoomph NAMPHAAK 30.08

20 Flash Flood in Northern Part of Viet Nam TS Dianmus(19-20 Aug 2016) Date of FFG products 20/08/ :00 UTC time 1hour Flash Flood Guidance in Vietnam 3hours Flash Flood Guidance in Vietnam Provinces Districts FFG value Provinces Districts FFG Value Ha Giang Meo Vac Ha Giang Dong Van Cao Bang Bao Lac Ha Giang Meo Vac Lao Cai Bat Xat Ha Giang Yen Minh Bac Kan TX. Bac Kan Ha Giang Quan Ba Bac Kan Bach Thong Ha Giang Bac Me Lai Chau Muong Te Ha Giang Vi Xuyen Lai Chau Phong Tho Cao Bang Bao Lac Lai Chau Sin Ho Cao Bang Ha Quang Lai Chau Tuan Giao Cao Bang Thong Nong Lai Chau Dien Bien Cao Bang Nguyen Binh Lai Chau Dien Bien Dong Cao Bang Hoa An Son La Song Ma Lao Cai Bat Xat Hoa Binh Ky Son Lao Cai Sa Pa Nghe An Tuong Duong Lao Cai Than Uyen Bac Kan TX. Bac Kan Bac Kan Ba Be Bac Kan Bach Thong Phu Tho Thanh Son Lai Chau TX. Lai Chau Lai Chau Muong Te Lai Chau Phong Tho Lai Chau Sin Ho Lai Chau Muong Lay Lai Chau Tuan Giao Lai Chau Dien Bien Lai Chau Dien Bien Dong Son La TX. Son La Son La Quynh Nhai Son La Muong La Son La Thuan Chau Son La Mai Son Son La Song Ma Son La Moc Chau Hoa Binh Da Bac Hoa Binh Mai Chau Hoa Binh Ky Son Hoa Binh Tan Lac Thanh Hoa Muong Lat Thanh Hoa Quan Hoa Thanh Hoa Quan Son Thanh Hoa Ba Thuoc Nghe An Tuong Duong Nghe An Con Cuong Nghe An Thanh Chuong Quang Binh Minh Hoa 40.60

21 Flash Flood in Lao PDR Ts Dianmu(20 Aug 2016)

22 Flash Flood in Northern Part of Thailand TS Dianmu(20 Aug 2016) Date of FFG products 20/08/ :00 UTC time 1hour Flash Flood Guidance in Thailand 3hour Flash Flood Guidance in Thailand Provinces Districts FFG Value Provinces Districts FFG Value Chiang Rai Muang Chiang Rai Chiang Rai Muang Chiang Rai Chiang Rai Chiang Khong 8.62 Chiang Rai Chiang Khong Chiang Rai Chiang Saen 8.62 Chiang Rai Chiang Saen Chiang Rai Thoeng Chiang Rai Thoeng Chiang Rai Mae Suai Chiang Rai Phan Chiang Rai Wiang Pa Pao Chiang Rai Mae Chan Chiang Rai King Amphoe Mae Lao Chiang Rai Mae Suai Chiang Mai Fang Chiang Rai Wiang Pa Pao Chiang Mai Phrao Chiang Rai King Amphoe Mae Lao Chiang Mai Mae Ai Chiang Mai Fang Chiang Mai King Amphoe Chaipak Chiang Mai Phrao Nan King Amphoe Song Kh Chiang Mai Mae Ai Nan Song Kwae Chiang Mai King Amphoe Chaipakan Lampang Ngao Nan King Amphoe Song Khae Lampang Wang Nua Nan Song Kwae Phayao Muang Phayao Phitsanulok Chat Trakan Phayao Chiang Kham Lampang Ngao Lampang Wang Nua Uttaradit Nam Pat Phayao Muang Phayao Phayao Mae Chai Phayao Chiang Kham 23.01

23 Flash Flood in Southern Part of Lao PDR ITCZ (13 Sept 2016)

24 Flash flood in central Viet Nam TS Rai ( 13 Sept 2016)

25 Flash Flood in Central Viet Nam Tropical Depression(14-15 Oct 2016) Date of FFG products 14/10/ :00 UTC time 1hour Flash Flood Guidance in Vietnam 3hours Flash Flood Guidance in Vietnam Provinces Districts FFG value Provinces Districts FFG Value Quang Tri Da Krong Quang Tri Da Krong Thua Thien Hue Phong Dien Thua Thien Hue Phong Dien Thua Thien Hue Huong Tra Thua Thien Hue Huong Tra Thua Thien Hue A Luoi Thua Thien Hue A Luoi Phu Yen Tuy Hoa Phu Yen Song Hinh Khanh Hoa Van Ninh Khanh Hoa Ninh Hoa Dak Lak Dak R'Lap Dak Lak Dak Nong Lam Dong Bao Lam 37.81

26 Flash Flood in Central Viet Nam Low Pressure (31 Oct-01 Nov 2016) Date of FFG products 31/10/ :00 UTC time 1hour Flash Flood Guidance in Vietnam 3hours Flash Flood Guidance in Vietnam Provinces Districts FFG value Provinces Districts FFG Value Phu Yen Tuy Hoa Phu Yen Tuy Hoa Khanh Hoa Van Ninh Phu Yen Song Hinh Khanh Hoa TP. Nha Trang Khanh Hoa Van Ninh Khanh Hoa Ninh Hoa Khanh Hoa Dien Khanh Khanh Hoa Cam Ranh Khanh Hoa Khanh Son Ninh Thuan Ninh Son Ninh Thuan Ninh Hai Ninh Thuan Ninh Phuoc Binh Thuan Tuy Phong Binh Thuan Ham Thuan Nam Binh Thuan Tanh Linh 33.41

27 Challenges Uncertainties of FFG system Hydroestimator some time are underestimate, and also the MAP product is underestimate cause of incorrect of Bias correction factor. It recommend to be review the bias correction factor for MAP. The FFG product should be used with accurate current or shortterm forecast rainfall (6-12 hours) that will provide a better indicator for a flash flood warning. Currently the short term rainfall forecast not available at RFMMC. Other FFG model parameters such as Soil moisture, Land use /Land cover should be review, as it may change from time to time.

28 Conclusion 4 Storms and 7-8 ITCZ and Low pressure has been occurred in LMB during the flood season 2016, which create a serious flash flood. The MRC FFG system was on time detected the flash flood risk areas during the sever weather condition in the flood season 2016, except few events (1-2). The failing detection flash flood risk areas by the MRC FFG System is caused by underestimate of satellite rainfall, and bias correction factor, which used to calculate MAP. Development of short-term forecast rainfall is necessary to help the FFG operator (priority the areas to monitor the flash flood) for improving the accuracies of FFG warning. Improvement of the FFG processing tool by updated the GIS provincial administration database.

29 Conclusion(continue) Maintaining the connection between the RFMMC and National FFG operators for the region in order to receive additional feed-back for those areas where flash floods occurred. According to the information from the newspaper, the flood has been occurred also in many districts/villages under flash flood risk level 2 (yellow color scale). This is recommend that MRCFFG operator should also provide the flash flood watch list for districts/villages, which are under the risk level 2 (yellow color scale ). Conducted refreshment training course of FFG system operation in purpose to improve and exchange the knowledge and experiences on FFG operation with national FFG system operators.

30 Thank for your attention

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32 Downtime of FFG system in 2016 From To Root cause Hardware failure Hardware failure The uploads of GHE satellite input to the FTP server from which MRCFFG downloads the files was interrupted.