No Lazy Dog Days of Summer for Industrial Real Estate

Transcription

1 Q INDUSTRIAL NORTH AMERICA HIGHLIGHTS No Lazy Dog Days of Summer for Industrial Real Estate INDICATORS Relative to prior period VACANCY US Q US Q3 2014* Canada Q Canada Q3 2014* NET ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATE** *Projected, relative to prior period **Warehouse rents The manufacturing sector of the U.S. economy and industrial real estate sectors are both continuing on a hot streak and are defying the stereotypical lazy dog days of summer. Manufacturing has been posting robust growth that we have not seen in six years. Q2 change in GDP has been revised upward to 4.2% after registering -2.1% in Q1. The Institute for Supply Management s (ISM) August report on manufacturing posted its best reading (59) since March 2011 with 17 of 18 industries indicating growth. In addition, a widely-followed industrial activity bellwether resource, RailTime Indicators (by AAR.org) is confirming all this industrial activity with rail traffic counts. Total year-to-date railcar traffic was up 3.7% YOY through July 2014, while intermodal traffic (the containers moving from plant and port to market and consumer) was up 5.9% YOY. So, how is this industrial activity translating into demand for warehouse space and industrial real estate? To quote a line from The Lego Movie, Everything is Awesome! Those positive economic factors are benefitting the industrial sector with higher occupancy rates due to an Absorption to New Supply Ratio of 1.4 to 1.0. N.A. INDUSTRIAL SUMMARY STATISTICS, Q US CAN N.A. VACANCY RATE (%) Change from Q (%) ABSORPTION (msf) NEW CONSTRUCTION (msf) UNDER CONSTRUCTION (msf) KEY TAKEAWAYS: U.S. warehouse vacancy rates continue to decline. Vacancies have fallen 115 basis points (bps) over the past six quarters, or an average of nearly 20 bps per quarter to a nationwide rate of 7.7%. This rate of improvement has slowed from 25 bps per quarter in 2013 due to increasing new supply. Inland distribution markets with a combination of intermodal (Kansas City), air-cargo and e-commerce fulfillment (Columbus and Indianapolis), or rail access to burgeoning East and Gulf Coast ports (Atlanta), are performing the best. The West region of the U.S. is performing the best among all regions in North America. Not only does the West have the lowest vacancy rate, it also had 40% of net leasing activity and 25% of all transaction activity in Q2. L.A. leads the region with a vacancy rate that has dipped below 2.5%. ASKING RENTS PER SF (USD/CAD) Average Warehouse/ Distribution Center US CAN N.A Change from Q (%)

2 KEY TAKEAWAYS: Atlanta, Denver and Phoenix are the Q2 stars among inland distribution MSAs. Denver ranks in the top ten U.S. industrial markets for highest occupancy. Atlanta ranks among the top five for Q2 net absorption. And Phoenix is a rising star with the most Q2 net leasing activity at 4.2 million square feet (msf). With respect to Canada, one-third of the 12 primary industrial markets saw vacancy rates climb in Q2, and only one-third of the markets had net leasing activity in excess of 800,000 sf. L.A., Houston and Savannah, Ga., were the three standout port markets in Q2. Houston has a warehouse vacancy rate sub of 5.5%, which is the lowest in the South. Savannah has the fifth lowest vacancy rate in the South, approaching 7%, and the city is benefitting from West Coast ILWU/ dock labor uncertainty due to the expired ILWU (International Longshore and Warehouse Union) labor agreement. Dallas is on the watch list regarding new supply. Dallas is outpacing the national market average with delivery of large new spec distribution warehouses, and lease-up has slowed. L.A. has edged out Honolulu as the warehouse market with the lowest vacancy rate in the U.S. at 2.3% over Honolulu s 2.4%. L.A. now has a lower vacancy rate than all Canadian markets, except Regina, Sask., at 1.9%. Denver is another notable market with a vacancy rate now among the six lowest in the Western U.S. at just 4.8%. The West continues to be a market leader in occupancy with a vacancy rate of 6.1%, which is down another 26 bps from 6.3% in Q1. Midwest is at 7.5%, which is a decline of another 14 bps from 7.6% in Q1. The South and Northeast have regional warehouse vacancy rates of 8.5% and 9.2%, respectively both an improvement over Q1 rates of 8.7% and 9.2%. The West Coast port markets have so far avoided a strike. Unlike 2002, the ILWU has not paralyzed the West Coast economy and ports with a strike in response to the June 30th expiration of their labor agreement. Dock work has not been disrupted as negotiations continue. While this is not the best case outcome as the absence of a labor agreement in 1H2014 caused some retailers and shippers to reroute cargo in anticipation of a summer strike, the absence of a strike has calmed the market. At mid-2014 there is less fear by retailers and shippers of major port disruptions compared to at the beginning of the year. Gulf and East Coast port markets continue to capture market share from West Coast port markets due to: 1) unresolved ILWU labor agreement along West coast ports; 2) better Class I rail connectivity; and 3) cost advantages from ports being in right-to-work states with more efficient operations as measured by crane-moves-per-hour. Three such port markets are: Houston, which has the lowest warehouse vacancy rate in the South at 5.5%; Miami with a 5.8% vacancy rate; and Savannah, with a vacancy poised to fall below 7.0% by YE Savannah is a market that has benefited from the ILWU labor agreement uncertainty as retailers such as Wal-Mart rerouted inbound holiday containers to its distribution facilities in Georgia versus California. Charleston, S.C. and Norfolk, Va., are seeing warehouse space lease-up from their respective port growth as well. Transaction Activity: The volume remains suppressed due to a lack of product for sale rather than a lack of demand. Cap rates are stable and at more risk of rising rather than compressing further due to concern that the Fed may move to increase interest rates in 1H2015. NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL VACANCY, INVENTORY AND ABSORPTION Q INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS GDP: Q2 14 Revised up to 4.2% Q % L-T Trend: 3.3% ISM: Aug PMI 59 best since 3/2011 Absorption Per Market q1 '14 - q2 '14 4,300,000 2,150, , ,000 Rail Time Indicators: AAR.org Total Railcar Traffic +3.7% YOY (July YTD) -2,150,000-4,300,000 Intermodal Traffic +5.9% YOY (July YTD) Sq. Ft. By Region 4.5 billion 2.25 billion 450 mil Occupied Sq. Ft. Vacant Sq. Ft. > Big gains in carloads of motor vehicles, crushed stone & sand, and grain in July 2014 compared with July SOURCE: Colliers International P. 2 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

3 Industrial Economic Indicators: Until Q when GDP contracted at a rate of -2.1 %, every quarter since winter 2012 had registered improved manufacturing activity and industrial real estate performance. Q restored the industrial sector growth story fueled by more than 1 million housing starts and approximately 17 million auto sales (both seasonally adjusted annualized rates) in July. The quarter also affirmed that Frozenomics was an anomaly. May the term Frozenomics often used to refer to the negative impact extreme cold weather has on the economy rest in peace. Whether the measurement is GDP, the ISM PMI/Report on Manufacturing or the American Association of Railroad s bellwether Rail Time Indicators, the primary industrial economic indicators are all registering the theme from The Lego Movie : Everything is awesome! As a case in point, consider the latest ISM Report on Manufacturing for August. The report confirms that the industrial sector of the U.S. economy is hitting on all cylinders in its just released August report on manufacturing. The August PMI increased to 59 and reflected the highest reading since March 2011 when the index registered The news in this latest report on U.S. manufacturing was stellar across all measures. All key components of the Manufacturing-at-a-Glance summary for August are listed as growing, and a majority are expanding at a faster pace than prior 2014 periods. Looking at the components of the index, we see that the New Orders Index registered 66.7, indicating growth in new orders for the 15th consecutive month. The closely watched Employment Index also showed continued improvement. It grew for the 14th consecutive month, registering And the bellwether metric for future performance Backlog of Orders also continues to show pent-up demand. The August reading was 52.5 (up from 49.5 in July). In addition to the best in three years manufacturing measures, comments from the ISM panel of survey participants reflect a positive outlook despite caution over global geopolitical unrest. According to the ISM, 17 of the 18 manufacturing industries tracked reported growth in August, with Textile Mills the only industry reporting contraction. The link to the full report is as follows, goo.gl/bfdibn and the key chart in the ISM report providing the August Manufacturing-at-a-Glance is below. MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE AUGUST 2014 INDEX SERIES INDEX (AUG) SERIES INDEX (JUL) PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE DIRECTION RATE OF CHANGE TREND* (MONTHS) PMI Growing Faster 15 New Orders Growing Faster 15 Production Growing Faster 6 Employment Growing Slower 14 Supplier Deliveries Slowing Slower 15 Inventories Growing From Contracting 1 Customers' Inventories Too Low Slower 33 Prices Increasing Slower 13 Backlog of Orders Growing From Contracting 1 Exports Growing Faster 21 Imports Growing Faster 19 OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Faster 63 Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 15 * Number of months moving in current direction Source: ISM COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 3

4 VACANCY: U.S. warehouse vacancy rates continue to decline. Vacancies have fallen 115 bps over the past 6 quarters, or an average of nearly 20 bps per quarter to a nationwide rate of 7.7%. This rate of improvement has slowed from 25 bps quarter in 2013 due to increasing new supply. The West continues to be a leader in occupancy with a vacancy rate of 6.1%, which is a 26 bps drop from 6.3% in Q1. Midwest vacancies are at 7.5%, which is down 14 bps from 7.6% in Q1. The South and Northeast have regional warehouse vacancy rates of 8.5% and 9.2%, respectively, both of which represent a decline over Q1 rates of 8.7% and 9.5%. L.A. has displaced Honolulu as the warehouse market with the lowest vacancy rate in the U.S. at just 2.3%. (Honolulu is at 2.4%). L.A. s vacancy also is lower than the vacancy rate of all Canadian markets except Regina, Sask., at 1.9%. Denver is another notable market with a vacancy rate now among the six lowest in all the Western U.S. at just 4.8%. Atlanta, Denver and Phoenix are the Q2 stars among inland distribution MSAs. Denver ranks in the top 10 U.S. industrial markets for occupancy. Atlanta ranks among the top 5 for Q2 net absorption. And Phoenix is a rising star with the most Q2 net leasing activity at 4.2 msf. Inland distribution markets with a combination of intermodal (Kansas City), air-cargo and e-commerce fulfillment (Columbus and Indianapolis), or rail access to burgeoning East and Gulf Coast ports (Atlanta) are performing the best. With respect to Canada, one-third of the 12 primary industrial markets saw vacancy rates climb in Q2, and only one-third of the markets had net leasing activity in excess of 800,000 sf. L.A., Houston and Savannah were the three standout port markets in Q2. Houston has a warehouse vacancy rate sub 5.5%, which is the lowest in the South. Savannah has the fifth lowest vacancy rate in the South as it is approaching 7% and benefitting from the dock labor uncertainty on the West Coast due to the expired ILWU labor agreement. OF THE LEASES SIGNED THIS QUARTER*, DID MOST TENANTS...? 3-MONTH FORECAST FOR RENTS (relative to current quarter) Contract Hold Steady Expand Down Same Up 100% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 60.0% 55.6% 47.1% 59.1% 33.3% 55.2% 51.4% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50.0% 66.7% 76.5% 72.7% 41.7% 69.0% 64.3% 50% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 66.7% 33.3% 47.1% 40.0% 40.9% 41.4% 45.7% 11.1% 5.9% 3.4% 2.9% Midwest Northeast South West Canada US N.A. 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 50.0% 58.3% 33.3% 23.5% 27.3% 31.0% 35.7% Midwest Northeast South West Canada US N.A. *Excluding renewals % of reporting markets % of reporting markets CHARACTERIZE CURRENT INDUSTRIAL RENTS IN YOUR 3-MONTH FORECAST FOR VACANCY LEVELS (relative to current quarter) Declining Bottoming No Clear Direction Increasing Peaking Down Same Up N.A. 1.4% 70.0% 18.6% 10.0% Canada 58.3% 25.0% 16.7% US 1.7% 72.4% 17.2% 8.6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % of reporting markets 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 16.7% 11.1% 10.0% 13.0% 15.0% 25.0% 33.3% 30.4% 12.5% 14.5% 25.0% 25.0% 26.3% 33.3% 75.0% 58.3% 55.6% 56.5% 62.5% 59.2% 41.7% Midwest Northeast South West Canada US N.A. % of reporting markets Source: Colliers International P. 4 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

5 ABSORPTION: The good news is Q saw another quarter of nearly 50 msf of net leasing activity in the U.S. (49 msf) and 56 msf for all of North America. The not-so-good news is that the Absorption to New-Supply ratio is eroding. That erosion is an early warning indication that the pace of new supply is accelerating greater than net new demand. Throughout 2013, this ratio was 2:1 (2 sf of net absorption for every 1 sf of new supply added to the market). In Q1 2014, the Absorption to New-Supply ratio declined to 1.8:1 and in Q2 it slid further to just 1.4:1. What this means is that the growth in new supply is outpacing the rate of net leasing activity. The adverse impact of this trend is beginning to appear in major markets like Dallas where the inventory of vacant spec warehouse space over 300,000 sf is the highest it has been since the 1990s. Although Dallas has a warehouse vacancy rate below 7.5% and experienced in excess of 2.0 msf of net absorption in Q2 that pace is half the rate from Q1 when 4.0 msf was absorbed. YTD absorption for Dallas is running at one-third the pace it was from 2013 when it led the nation with 17.1 msf of net leasing activity. This trend is not broad based yet. Markets like Atlanta, Denver, Detroit, Grand Rapids, Kansas City, Miami and Phoenix are still experiencing near 2:1 absorption to new supply ratios. Monitoring the Absorption to New Supply and New Supply to Total Inventory ratios is pivotal to translating potential overbuilding risk to individual markets. INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE INDICATORS (U.S.) GDP: Inventory Vacancy Net Absorption New supply New Supply to Inventory Net Absorption to New Supply Ratio +4.2% in Q bsf 7.7% Nationwide (down 18 bps) Q2 saw another 50 msf 36 msf Q2 vs. 26 msf Q1 + Construction after 8 qtrs of absorption > new supply <1% annualized Note: Up to 2% is considered healthy 1.4:1 Q vs 1.8:1 Q1 > 10 Markets account for 55% of 49 msf net leasing in Q2. Top 5 MSAs #1 Phoenix 4.2 msf #2 LA - Inland Empire 3.7 msf #3 Detroit 3.6 msf #4 Indianapolis 2.8 msf #5 Atlanta 2.3 msf ABSORPTION VS. UNDER CONSTRUCTION SELECT U.S. S ABSORPTION VS. UNDER CONSTRUCTION CANADIAN S Q2-14 Absorption Currently Under Construction Millions Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA Indianapolis, IN Atlanta, GA Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX Chicago, IL Los Angeles, CA Savannah, GA New Jersey - Central New Jersey - Northern Q2-14 Absorption Currently Under Construction Millions Calgary, AB Montréal, QC Vancouver, BC Toronto, ON Edmonton, AB Winnipeg, MB Victoria, BC Saskatoon, SK Regina, SK Ottawa, ON Waterloo Region, ON Halifax, NS COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 5

6 HIGHLIGHTS Q INDUSTRIAL NORTH AMERICA e-commerce fulfillment and the end consumer. The U.S. is remaking its supply chain, which in turn is redefining the composition of core industrial markets from L.A., San Francisco, Dallas, Atlanta, Boston and New York to include Denver, Houston, Phoenix, Kansas City, Columbus, Indianapolis, Louisville, Detroit, Greenville, S.C., and Memphis. If you want to visualize a map of this new supply chain, overlay a map of intermodal facilities by the likes of IANA (Intermodal Association of North America) and the 7 Class 1 Railroads from American Association of Railroads (AAR.org). The leadership in absorption is coming from a combination of tried-andproven stalwarts like L.A. and Atlanta, as well as some new rising stars such as Phoenix, Detroit, Indianapolis, Kansas City and Grand Rapids. Phoenix led North America in net leasing in Q2 with 4.2 msf. Detroit saw 3.6 msf in Q2 (Michigan is back as a new right-to-work state). Indianapolis and Kansas City (both key intermodal and inland distribution markets) and Grand Rapids (a new right-to-work state market) are also viewed as rising stars. Kansas City has the newest and arguably most modern new intermodal facility with direct access into Mexico via Kansas City Southern Railroad. It is worth reiterating from prior Colliers North American Outlook reports that the key to understanding industrial warehouse absorption is knowledge of how the global and continental supply chain is being remade. That supply chain will be more East Coast and Midwest concentric paralleling the Class 1 railroads that move north/south between Vancouver, Canada and the South. It is about moving more by rail from plant and port to NORTH AMERICAN INTERMODAL NETWORK Prince Rupert Prince George St. John's Edmonton Vancouver Saskatoon Calgary Bellingham Regina Seattle Tacoma Winnipeg Spokane Portland Dryden Québec Lewiston Montréal Ottawa Fargo Billings Nampa Minneapolis Milwaukee Reno Sacramento San Francisco Des Moines Omaha Salt Lake City Denver Fresno Chicago Indianapolis St. Louis Guymon Albuqerque Phoenix Amarillo San Diego North American Ralroad Lines BNSF CN CPRS CSXT FEC Ferromex IAIS KCS NS UP El Paso Hermosillo Little Rock Buffalo Detroit Cleveland Pittsburgh Columbus Houston Corpus Christi Monterrey Brownsville Philadelphia Baltimore Norfolk Nashville Greensboro Charlotte Wilmington Chattanooga Atlanta Charleston Savannah Jackson Mobile Jacksonville New Orleans Orlando Tampa Laredo New York Metro Louisville Birmingham Monroe Dallas/Ft Worth San Antonio Ciudad Obregon USA Intermodal Facilities Memphis Lubbock Tucson Nogales Tulsa Portland Boston Toronto Cincinnati Kansas City Las Vegas Los Angeles Green Bay Grand Rapids Halifax West Palm Beach Miami Ciudad Victoria Tepic San Luis Potosi Guadalajara Queretaro Mexico City Source: IANA (intermodal.org) P. 6 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

7 TRANSACTION ACTIVITY: The sales transaction volume remains suppressed due to a lack of product for sale versus a lack of demand. Cap rates are stable and at more risk of rising rather than compressing further due to concern that the Fed may move to increase interest rates in 1H2015 in recognition of recent positive economic data such as GDP, ISM manufacturing, housing and job growth. A few key highlights and statistics to note from Q2 industrial transaction activity based upon RCA data are: Total transaction activity was only $19 billion or 2,067 buildings. One noteworthy industrial developer to monitor in 2H2014 with respect to transactions for sale is IDI. The firm has portfolios in both Mexico and the U.S. for sale and that could result in higher industrial transaction activity in 2H2014. The average price per building sold is also indicative of a dearth of sales of higher value transactions evidenced by portfolio sales or transactions of modern Class A buildings measuring north of 350,000 sf with 30-foot or higher clear ceiling heights. In Q2, the average industrial building price was less than $10.0 million ($9.2 million) or $57 psf. The West and Southeast were the most active regions with 42% of all transaction activity. U.S. INDUSTRIAL Q Q Absorption msf Completions msf Vacancy % Q Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q THE TOP FIVE MSAS IN TRANSACTION VOLUME IN Q2 #1 L.A. Q Vacancy % Source: Colliers International #2 Chicago #3 Dallas #4 Austin #5 New Jersey COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 7

8 Conclusion: Just as performance by the manufacturing sector and industrial real estate defied winter 2014 and the Frozenomics that hit other sectors of the U.S. economy, both also defied the stereotypical lazy dog days of summer with the kind of economic activity we have not seen since pre-recession days. Economic indicators for manufacturing certainly point towards that positive momentum for the manufacturing sector and industrial real estate continuing into 2H2014. We believe that the outperformers and rising stars we have outlined in this report are again a nod to the important transformation underway as it relates to reshaping the North American and global supply chain. Although the lack of for sale product may continue to challenge investors and temper transaction volume, the fundamentals of rising occupancies and rents continue to look favorable for many MSAs around the country. BEHIND THE STATISTICS & BEYOND THE BASICS: Scope of Colliers Industrial Outlook Report: Colliers monitors industrial property conditions in 77 North American markets from Miami to Montreal totaling 16 bsf of inventory, which is actually 2.5 times the warehouse space tracked by Reis. Approximately 89% (14.3 bsf) of this inventory is located in the U.S. and 11% in 12 primary Canadian markets. Keep in mind that in 2H2013 inventory numbers declined slightly for the U.S. A decline of approximately 1.5% or 191 msf occurred from previously reported inventory in 1H2013 due to a culling of specialty warehouse property types, such as self-storage, to align MSA inventory levels with the industry trend of excluding these specialty warehouse property types from bulk and distribution warehouse measures.colliers warehouse inventory totals at the MSA level correlate with other industry data sources such as CoStar. This kind of inventory realignment was not necessary for the Colliers Canadian markets as specialty warehouse property types (self-storage) were never included in our prior inventory figures for Canadian markets. On a regional basis, the Midwest and South regions in the U.S. contain more than half the total North American warehouse space (52%) followed by the West with 24%, Northeast at 14% and Canada at 11% with 1.7 bsf. However, the rankings with respect to vacancy are materially different from the inventory rankings. Influencing the supply and demand metrics, such as vacancy and absorption, are a broad array of variables commencing with: 1) the remaking of the U.S. supply chain in response to the growth in e-commerce; 2) the expansion of the Panama Canal lock system; and 3) the remaking of East Coast ports from former military ports (Virginia, Charleston and Jacksonville) to competitive post-panama Canal ready commercial ports capable of competing with the dominant West Coast ports (L.A. and Long Beach). Specifics pertaining to the vital statistics by region are presented in the following table along with context as to the leading and lagging markets within each region: NORTH AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL OVERVIEW Q MEASURE NORTH AMERICA CANADA UNITED STATES WEST/MIDWEST SOUTH NORTHEAST # of Markets Inventory (Millions SF) 16, , , , , ,192.6 % of N.A. Inventory 100.0% 10.7% 89.3% 49.1% 26.5% 13.7% New Supply (Millions SF) % of N.A. New Supply 100.0% 9.4% 90.6% 65.1% 19.3% 6.3% Vacancy (%) 7.3% 4.1% 7.7% 6.8% 8.6% 9.2% Absorption (Millions SF) % of N.A. Absorption 100.0% 11.9% 88.1% 56.8% 24.2% 7.1% Leadership Markets Regina, Edmonton, & Toronto have the lowest vacancy (<3.5%), and Calgary, Montreal & Vancouver lead with regard to absorption (900k to 2.4 msf in Q2). Laggard Markets Halifax & Waterloo have the highest vacancy rates at 13.0% and 8.1%, respectively; and both are the only Canadian markets with net negative absorption. LA is a standout in Q2 now with the lowest vacancy rate - even less than that of Honolulu. Phoenix led all markets with net absorption in Q2, and Denver now has the seventh lowest vacancy. Houston, LA and Seattle were the port markets with the lowest vacancy. Boston and Memphis standout in Q2 as both markets have vacancy rates well above 10.0% and experienced close to zero (Boston) or net negative absorption in Q2. In addition to LA which improved from an already low 2.7% Q1 vacancy to 2.3% vacancy in Q2, Phoenix, Indianapolis, Oakland and Denver reported strong Q2 absorption with sizable drops in vacancy. Cleveland, Milwaukee, Reno and San Francisco Peninsula disappointed with either negative or weak (near zero sq.ft.) absorption. Houston, Atlanta and Dallas are the three large markets that stood out with respect to strong absorption. Columbia SC and Savannah GA were secondary markets that distinguished on both vacancy improvement and absorption. Birmingham and Memphis are the two markets of concern with elevated vacancy (>10%) and negative absorption. Birmingham is more of a systemic concern while Memphis is digesting a lot of new supply across the TN/MS state line. Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington DC is where the leasing activity is strong (all with >1.0 msf in Q2). Boston has the highest warehouse vacancy rate in U.S. and anemic absorption, and NJ- Northern and Pittsburgh had net negative absorption. Source: Colliers International P. 8 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

9 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY INVENTORY, NEW SUPPLY AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION INVENTORY JUNE 30, 2014 NEW SUPPLY Q YTD NEW SUPPLY 2014 CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION NORTHEAST Baltimore, MD 224,380,937 30,120 1,011,620 1,037,164 Boston, MA 151,940, ,000 35, ,000 Hartford, CT 95,613, ,525,747 Long Island, NY 156,038, , ,000 New Jersey - Central 340,735, ,000 0 New Jersey - Northern 363,207, ,000 0 Philadelphia, PA 415,902,315 1,675,343 1,979,530 3,994,520 Pittsburgh, PA 174,647, , ,635 Washington DC 270,158, , ,167 1,101,171 Northeast Total 2,192,624,752 2,484,334 5,138,008 9,539,237 SOUTH Atlanta, GA 614,763, ,730 3,948,235 5,992,713 Birmingham, AL 109,682, Charleston, SC 32,758, , ,000 Charlotte, NC 326,908,723 1,043,183 11,615 1,741,867 Columbia, SC 39,393, , ,280,500 Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 736,067,894 1,631,579 2,123,641 14,803,275 Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL 109,687, , , ,632 Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 179,870,734 48, ,967 Houston, TX 491,720,505 2,006,855 2,542,228 3,930,859 Jacksonville, FL 122,821,484 57, , ,866 Little Rock, AR* 45,125,192 18,376 18,376 0 Louisville, KY 174,282, , ,147 Memphis, TN 222,038, ,892 3,502,052 Miami, FL 209,636, ,921 1,121,133 1,460,227 Nashville, TN 188,105, Orlando, FL 131,802, , ,000 1,908,757 Raleigh, NC 110,645, ,305 42, ,155 Richmond, VA 110,629, ,302 1,529,652 Savannah, GA 45,302, , ,000 Tampa Bay, FL 197,530,942 50, ,019 2,180,600 West Palm Beach, FL 49,616, ,000 South Total 4,248,389,720 7,646,813 12,742,835 42,192,269 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 9

10 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY INVENTORY, NEW SUPPLY AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION (continued) INVENTORY JUNE 30, 2014 NEW SUPPLY Q YTD NEW SUPPLY 2014 CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION MIDWEST Chicago, IL 1,317,951,216 2,985,233 3,997,878 13,558,127 Cincinnati, OH 245,740, ,938 2,200,000 Cleveland, OH 282,002, , ,600 Columbus, OH 216,903,000 1,747,000 90,800 6,308,000 Detroit, MI 530,044,823 54, , ,875 Grand Rapids, MI 113,000, , ,800 Indianapolis, IN 279,118,443 2,039,225 2,069,560 6,954,993 Kansas City, MO-KS 236,608, ,650 1,520,040 3,346,969 Milwaukee, WI 224,843, , ,691 1,891,145 Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN 243,578, , ,000 2,107,000 Omaha, NE 68,035, ,558 St. Louis, MO 268,854, ,718 1,252,135 Midwest Total 4,026,680,616 8,325,322 10,675,191 39,702,202 WEST Albuquerque, NM 37,227,667 45, Bakersfield, CA 34,084, , ,868 2,919,302 Boise, ID 46,267,707 26, ,067 44,000 Denver, CO 215,621, ,821 1,031,381 1,787,465 Fairfield, CA 46,791, ,400 48, ,896 Fresno, CA 56,200, Honolulu, HI 39,237, Las Vegas, NV 114,692, , , ,502 Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA 433,530,266 11,158,151 1,754,900 13,745,734 Los Angeles, CA 887,170,282 1,191, ,200 2,459,200 Oakland, CA 142,563, , ,170 0 Orange County, CA 193,135,115 13,500 83,100 1,007,200 Phoenix, AZ 281,186,078 2,278,541 1,873,696 3,126,549 Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA 17,508, Portland, OR 192,018, , ,090 1,900,550 Reno, NV 83,205, ,401,010 Sacramento, CA 161,748,136 99, , ,744 San Diego, CA 187,320, , ,828 San Francisco Peninsula, CA 40,844, ,368 0 San Jose - Silicon Valley, CA 247,642, ,124,813 Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 262,545, ,250 2,319,998 Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA 95,642, ,000 1,872,900 Walnut Creek, CA 17,632, West Total 3,833,816,520 17,511,464 8,326,489 36,234,691 U.S. TOTALS 14,301,511,608 35,967,933 36,882, ,668,399 P. 10 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

11 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY ABSORPTION AND VACANCY ABSORPTION Q YTD ABSORPTION 2014 VACANCY RATE MAR. 31, 2014 (%) VACANCY RATE JUNE 30, 2014 (%) NORTHEAST Baltimore, MD 1,011,612 1,898, Boston, MA 175, , Hartford, CT -34, , Long Island, NY -301, , New Jersey - Central 614,040 1,614, New Jersey - Northern -1,127,919-2,251, Philadelphia, PA 2,095,954 1,670, Pittsburgh, PA -233, , Washington DC 1,720,055 3,298, Northeast Total 3,919,944 6,089, SOUTH Atlanta, GA 2,292,555 8,339, Birmingham, AL -1,527,250-1,381, Charleston, SC -575, , Charlotte, NC 1,888,713 3,278, Columbia, SC 907, , Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 2,051,283 7,081, Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL 700,559 1,008, Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 378, , Houston, TX 1,583,925 3,339, Jacksonville, FL 1,067, , Little Rock, AR* 403, , Louisville, KY -864, , Memphis, TN -230, , Miami, FL 1,167,367 1,637, Nashville, TN 1,199, , Orlando, FL 145, , Raleigh, NC 717, , Richmond, VA 317, , Savannah, GA 796, , Tampa Bay, FL 680,794 1,367, West Palm Beach, FL 360, , South Total 13,461,442 30,138, * Q1-14 data displayed for Little Rock COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 11

12 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY ABSORPTION AND VACANCY (continued) ABSORPTION Q YTD ABSORPTION 2014 VACANCY RATE MAR. 31, 2014 (%) VACANCY RATE JUNE 30, 2014 (%) MIDWEST Chicago, IL 1,922,549 4,357, Cincinnati, OH 169,024 1,573, Cleveland, OH -107,285-57, Columbus, OH 71,395 1,830, Detroit, MI 3,615,691 4,898, Grand Rapids, MI 169,517 95, Indianapolis, IN 2,804,524 3,549, Kansas City, MO-KS 215,138 1,089, Milwaukee, WI 162, , Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN 211, , Omaha, NE 762, , St. Louis, MO 1,422,508 2,186, Midwest Total 11,419,359 22,170, WEST Albuquerque, NM 418, , Bakersfield, CA 286, , Boise, ID 14, , Denver, CO 1,594,942 3,185, Fairfield, CA -79, , Fresno, CA 310, , Honolulu, HI 107, , Las Vegas, NV 1,620,073 2,333, Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA 3,749,400 6,891, Los Angeles, CA 1,760,700 4,269, Oakland, CA 2,192,041 1,962, Orange County, CA 77, , Phoenix, AZ 4,224,607 4,572, Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA 3,131 29, Portland, OR 717, , Reno, NV -94, , Sacramento, CA 792,286 1,047, San Diego, CA 166,491 1,144, San Francisco Peninsula, CA 1, , San Jose - Silicon Valley, CA 1,093, , Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 366,860 2,898, Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA 805,549 1,866, Walnut Creek, CA 48,912 18, West Total 20,177,613 36,350, U.S. TOTALS 48,978,358 94,749, % 7.7% P. 12 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

13 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY 3-MONTH FORECASTS, SALES PRICE & CAP RATES SALES PRICE MEDIAN CAP RATE (%) VACANCY FORECAST*** (3 MONTHS) RENT FORECAST*** (3 MONTHS) ABSORPTION FORECAST*** (3 MONTHS) NORTHEAST Baltimore, MD Boston, MA Hartford, CT Long Island, NY Close to zero New Jersey - Central New Jersey - Northern Close to zero Philadelphia, PA Pittsburgh, PA Washington DC Northeast Averages** SOUTH Atlanta, GA Birmingham, AL Close to zero Charleston, SC Charlotte, NC N/A Columbia, SC Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL Greenville/Spartanburg, SC Houston, TX N/A N/A N/A Jacksonville, FL Little Rock, AR* Close to zero Louisville, KY N/A Close to zero Memphis, TN Miami, FL Nashville, TN Orlando, FL Raleigh, NC N/A Richmond, VA Savannah, GA Tampa Bay, FL West Palm Beach, FL South Averages** * Q1-14 data displayed for Little Rock **Straight averages used ***Forecasts are for Warehouse/Distribution space. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 13

14 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY 3-MONTH FORECASTS, SALES PRICE & CAP RATES (continued) SALES PRICE MEDIAN CAP RATE (%) VACANCY FORECAST*** (3 MONTHS) RENT FORECAST*** (3 MONTHS) ABSORPTION FORECAST*** (3 MONTHS) MIDWEST Chicago, IL Cincinnati, OH Cleveland, OH N/A Columbus, OH Detroit, MI Grand Rapids, MI Indianapolis, IN Kansas City, MO-KS Milwaukee, WI Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN Omaha, NE Close to zero St. Louis, MO N/A Midwest Average** WEST Albuquerque, NM Close to zero Bakersfield, CA Boise, ID Close to zero Denver, CO Fairfield, CA Close to zero Fresno, CA Honolulu, HI Las Vegas, NV Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA Los Angeles, CA Close to zero Oakland, CA Orange County, CA Close to zero Phoenix, AZ Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA Close to zero Portland, OR Reno, NV N/A Sacramento, CA San Diego, CA San Francisco Peninsula, CA San Jose - Silicon Valley, CA Seattle/Puget Sound, WA Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA Walnut Creek, CA West Averages** U.S. AVERAGES** **Straight averages used ***Forecasts are for Warehouse/Distribution space.. P. 14 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

15 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY AVERAGE RENTS AS OF JUNE 2014 WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION SPACE SPACE FLEX/SERVICE SPACE TECH/R&D SPACE NORTHEAST Baltimore, MD Boston, MA Hartford, CT Long Island, NY New Jersey - Central New Jersey - Northern Philadelphia, PA Pittsburgh, PA Washington DC Northeast Averages** SOUTH Atlanta, GA Birmingham, AL Charleston, SC Charlotte, NC Columbia, SC Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL Greenville/Spartanburg, SC Houston, TX Jacksonville, FL Little Rock, AR* Louisville, KY Memphis, TN Miami, FL Nashville, TN Orlando, FL Raleigh, NC Richmond, VA Savannah, GA Tampa Bay, FL West Palm Beach, FL South Averages** *Q1-14 data displayed for Little Rock. **Straight averages used. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 15

16 UNITED STATES INDUSTRIAL SURVEY AVERAGE RENTS AS OF JUNE 2014 (continued) WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION SPACE SPACE FLEX/SERVICE SPACE TECH/R&D SPACE MIDWEST Chicago, IL Cincinnati, OH Cleveland, OH Columbus, OH Detroit, MI Grand Rapids, MI Indianapolis, IN Kansas City, MO-KS Milwaukee, WI Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN Omaha, NE St. Louis, MO Midwest Averages** WEST Albuquerque, NM Bakersfield, CA Boise, ID Denver, CO Fairfield, CA Fresno, CA Honolulu, HI Las Vegas, NV Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA Los Angeles, CA Oakland, CA Orange County, CA Phoenix, AZ Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA Portland, OR Reno, NV Sacramento, CA San Diego, CA San Francisco Peninsula, CA San Jose - Silicon Valley, CA Seattle/Puget Sound, WA Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA Walnut Creek, CA West Averages** U.S. AVERAGES** **Straight averages used. P. 16 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

17 CANADA INDUSTRIAL SURVEY INVENTORY, NEW SUPPLY AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION INVENTORY JUNE 30, 2014 NEW SUPPLY Q YTD NEW SUPPLY 2014 CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION Calgary, AB 130,781, ,158 2,195,420 1,587,859 Edmonton, AB 82,451, ,827 1,772,801 Halifax, NS*** 7,647, ,102 0 Montréal, QC 324,073, , ,000 Ottawa, ON 29,397,000 1,326,945 64, ,000 Regina, SK 17,481,279 30,900 84, ,000 Saskatoon, SK 21,735,000 90, , ,000 Toronto, ON 760,818, ,767 1,676,986 8,145,978 Vancouver, BC 191,074, ,550 1,612,102 2,076,940 Victoria, BC*** 9,134,202 18,229 78,790 0 Waterloo Region, ON 60,348,969 44, , ,666 Winnipeg, MB*** 80,172,082 80, , ,000 CANADA TOTALS 1,715,115,769 3,724,932 7,708,595 15,244,244 CANADA INDUSTRIAL SURVEY ABSORPTION AND VACANCY ABSORPTION Q YTD ABSORPTION VACANCY RATE VACANCY RATE 2014 MAR. 31, 2014 (%) JUNE 30, 2014 (%) Calgary, AB 2,404,963 2,920, Edmonton, AB 477, , Halifax, NS*** -115, , Montréal, QC 1,694,327 1,708, Ottawa, ON 4, , Regina, SK 32, , Saskatoon, SK 33,000 54, Toronto, ON 875,901 6,229, Vancouver, BC 962,806 1,663, Victoria, BC*** 66,161 66, Waterloo Region, ON -48, , Winnipeg, MB*** 228, , CANADA TOTAL 6,615,881 12,845, *** Halifax, Victoria and Winnipeg report data semi-annually. Data displayed is from Q2-14. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 17

18 CANADA INDUSTRIAL SURVEY 3-MONTH FORECASTS, SALES PRICE AND CAP RATES SALES PRICE (CAD PSF) MEDIAN CAP RATE (%) VACANCY FORECAST** (3 MONTHS) RENT FORECAST** (3 MONTHS) ABSORPTION FORECAST** (3 MONTHS) Calgary, AB Edmonton, AB Halifax, NS*** Montréal, QC Ottawa, ON Close to zero Regina, SK Saskatoon, SK Toronto, ON Vancouver, BC Victoria, BC*** Waterloo Region, ON Winnipeg, MB*** CANADA AVERAGES* * Straight averages used. ** Forecasts are for Warehouse/Distribution space. *** Halifax, Victoria and Winnipeg report data semi-annually. Data is from Q2-14. CANADA INDUSTRIAL SURVEY AVERAGE RENTS AS OF JUNE 2014 WAREHOUSE/DISTRIBUTION SPACE (CAD PSF) BULK SPACE (CAD PSF) FLEX/SERVICE SPACE (CAD PSF) TECH/R&D SPACE (CAD PSF) Calgary, AB Edmonton, AB Halifax, NS*** Montréal, QC Ottawa, ON Regina, SK Saskatoon, SK Toronto, ON 5.24 Vancouver, BC Victoria, BC*** Waterloo Region, ON Winnipeg, MB*** CANADA AVERAGES** ** Straight averages used. *** Halifax, Victoria and Winnipeg report data semi-annually. Data is from Q2-14. P. 18 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

19 INDUSTRIAL VACANCY RANKINGS US VACANCY RATE JUNE 30, 2014 (%) Los Angeles, CA 2.3 Honolulu, HI 2.4 Omaha, NE 3.3 Bakersfield, CA 3.8 San Francisco Peninsula, CA 3.9 Orange County, CA 4.2 Denver, CO 4.8 Boise, ID 4.8 Los Angeles - Inland Empire, CA 4.9 Long Island, NY 5.2 Houston, TX 5.5 Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 5.5 Oakland, CA 5.6 Columbus, OH 5.7 Miami, FL 5.8 Columbia, SC 5.9 Kansas City, MO-KS 6.1 Portland, OR 6.1 Indianapolis, IN 6.2 West Palm Beach, FL 6.3 Milwaukee, WI 6.4 Grand Rapids, MI 6.5 Cincinnati, OH 6.7 Cleveland, OH 6.9 Savannah, GA 7.1 Pleasanton/Tri-Valley, CA 7.3 Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX 7.3 Fresno, CA 7.3 St. Louis, MO 7.4 Pittsburgh, PA 7.4 Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN 7.6 Fairfield, CA 7.6 Walnut Creek, CA 7.7 U.S. AVERAGE 7.7 Albuquerque, NM 7.9 San Diego, CA 8.0 Nashville, TN 8.2 New Jersey - Northern 8.2 San Jose - Silicon Valley, CA 8.3 New Jersey - Central 8.4 Chicago, IL 8.4 Richmond, VA 8.5 Ft. Lauderdale-Broward, FL 8.5 Jacksonville, FL 8.6 Greenville/Spartanburg, SC 8.7 Baltimore, MD 8.8 Philadelphia, PA 8.8 Hartford, CT 8.9 Detroit, MI 9.1 Raleigh, NC 9.2 Reno, NV 9.3 Stockton/San Joaquin County, CA 9.5 Tampa Bay, FL 9.7 Orlando, FL 9.7 Charleston, SC 9.8 Little Rock, AR 10.1 Washington DC 10.1 Birmingham, AL 10.3 Las Vegas, NV 10.4 Charlotte, NC 10.6 Atlanta, GA 10.7 Sacramento, CA 12.1 Memphis, TN 12.1 Phoenix, AZ 12.8 Boston, MA 19.4 INDUSTRIAL VACANCY RANKINGS CANADA VACANCY RATE JUNE (%) Regina, SK 1.9 Edmonton, AB 3.0 Toronto, ON 3.5 Winnipeg, MB 3.5 Vancouver, BC 4.1 CANADA AVERAGE 4.1 Calgary, AB 4.4 Victoria, BC 4.6 Montréal, QC 4.6 Saskatoon, SK 4.9 Ottawa, ON 6.3 Waterloo Region, ON 8.2 Halifax, NS 13.0 Glossary Absorption Net change in occupied space over a given period of time. Bulk Space Warehouse space 100,000 square feet or more with minimum ceiling heights of 24 feet. All loading is dock-height. Flex Space Single-story buildings having 10- to 18-foot ceilings with both floor-height and dock-height loading. Includes wide variation in office space utilization, ranging from retail and personal service, to distribution, light industrial and occasional heavy industrial use. Inventory Includes all existing multi- or single-tenant leased and owner-occupied industrial warehouse, light manufacturing, flex and R&D properties greater than or equal to 10,000 square feet. New Construction Includes completed speculative and build-to-suit construction. New construction quoted on a net basis after any demolitions or conversions. Service Space Single-story (or mezzanine) with 10- to 16-foot ceilings with frontage treatment on one side and dock-height loading or grade-level roll-up doors on the other. Less than 15 percent office space. Tech/R&D One- and two-story, 10- to 15-foot ceiling heights with up to 50 office/dry lab space (remainder in wet lab, workshop, storage and other support), with dock-height and floor-height loading. Triple Net Rent Includes rent payable to the landlord, and does not include additional expenses such as taxes, insurance, maintenance, janitorial and utilities. All industrial and high-tech/r&d rents in this report are quoted on an annual, triple net per square foot basis in U.S. and Canadian dollars. Vacancy Rate Percentage of total inventory available (both vacant and occupied) as at the survey date including direct vacant and sublease space. Warehouse 50,000 square feet or more with up to 15 percent office space, the balance being general warehouse space with 18- to 30-foot ceiling heights. All loading is dock-height. 485 offices in 63 countries on 6 continents United States: 146 Canada: 44 Latin America: 25 Asia Pacific: 186 EMEA: 84 $2.1 billion in annual revenue 15,800 professionals and staff 1.46 billion square feet under management $75 billion in total transaction value COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 601 Union Street, Suite 4800 Seattle, WA TEL FOR MORE INFORMATION Pete Culliney Director of Research TEL pete.culliney@colliers.com CONTRIBUTORS K.C. Conway MAI, CRE Jeff Simonson Senior Research Analyst USA AJ Paniagua Research Analyst Cliff Plank National Director GIS & Mapping Copyright 2014 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Accelerating success. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 19