BELT&ROAD IMPLICATIONS FOR CEE. Ágnes Szunomár, Ph.D.
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1 BELT&ROAD IMPLICATIONS FOR CEE Ágnes Szunomár, Ph.D.
2 Relations between China and CEE CEE for China means: new frontiers for export expansion; (one of the) strategic entry points for Europe; dynamic, largely developed, less saturated economies; cheap but qualified labour; less political expectation and economic complaints. China for CEE means: new opportunities for investment, trade, diversification,...
3 China-CEE trade 2016 Country Total export Total import Total trade USD MN % share USD MN % share USD MN % share Total Poland , ,2 Czech Republic , , ,7 Hungary , , ,1 Slovakia , , Romania , , ,3 Slovenia , , ,6 Bulgaria , , ,8 Lithuania , ,5 Latvia , , ,1 Croatia , , Estonia 967 2, , Albania 518 1, , ,1 Serbia , Montenegro 109 0,2 33 0, ,2 Macedonia 90 0,2 45 0, ,2 Bosnia & Herzegovina 64 0,1 44 0, ,2
4 Chinese FDI to selected CEE countries (USD million) Chines e OFDI to other CEECs 5% Chines e OFDI to 6 CEECs 95% Albania Bosnia and Hercegovina Bulgaria Croatia Czechia Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Macedonia Montenegro Poland Romania Serbia Slovakia Slovenia
5 List of key Chinese projects in CEE country Albania Bosnia and Hercegovina Bulgaria Croatia Czechia infrastructural projects under negotiation or implementation (construction, reconstruction or acquisition) motorvays: 'Arber' (connecting Albanian Ionian Sea to the Bulgarian Black Sea) and 'Blue Corridor' (Adriatic-Ionian); industrial park in Durres; international airport in Tirana Stanari TPP, Banovici TPP, Tuzla CPP, Banja Luka-Split motorway (potential) Motorways (potential): Varna-Burgas motorway, Ruse- Svilengrad motorway; investment in Kozloduy (potential) Banja Luka-Split motorway (potential) Temeli n and Dukovany NPPs (potential), football stadium Eden (acq. and reconstruction); Hodonin logistic centre (potential) other important projects Banker s Petroleum (acq. by Geo-Jade Petroleum) Great Wall Motors ZDAS.a.s (acq. by China Energy Company Limited); Changhong Europe Electric Estonia China-Europe freight train network (potential) Hungary Belgrade-Budapest high-speed railway Huawei's European Supply Centre, Lenovo, BYD; ZTE Network Cooperation Centre; BorshodChem (acq. by Wanhua) Latvia Yiwu-Riga 'Trans-Eurasian' railway connection; construction of Rail Baltica (potential), investment in airbaltic (potential) Lithuania development of the Xinjiang-Europe railway connection Huawei Computer Network College (potential); Kaunas CHPP (potential) Macedonia Railway modernisation Corridor X; two stretches on the motorways linking Kicevo-Ohrid and Miladinovci-Stip Montenegro Section of the European Motorway corridor XI (to Serbia); Renewal of the country s ship fleet; Investment in various energy projects /HPP, TPP (potential); Blue Corridor motorway project (potential) Poland Chengdu-Europe Express Rail; Jaworzno CPP Huawei Regional Centre; HSW and ZZN (acq. by Romania Serbia Rovinari TPP, Mintia-Deva TPP, Tarnita-Lapustesti HPP, Cernavoda NPP; Dej, Setra and Clue PVPP Danube bridge in Belgrade; Belgrade-Budapest highspeed railway; 350MW unit at Kostolac TPP; Sections of the European motorway XI (to Montenegro), 3 industrial parks Guangxi Liugong Group; Haier-Fagor cooperation Huawei Global Service Centre Slovakia Liaoning-Slovakia freight train service CSR Corporation; CASIC Hiwing Aviation General Equipment ; Chery Sales and Service Centre
6 One Belt, One Road
7 One Belt, One Road Chongqing-Duisburg (2011, Chongqing-Xinjiang- Europe International Fright Train) Wuhan-Prague (2012, Wuhan-Xinjiang-Europe International Fright Train) Chengdu-Lodz (2013, Chengdu-Europe Express) Zhengzhou-Hamburg (2013, Zhengzhou-Xinjiang- Europe Fright Train) Zhejiang-Madrid (2014, Yiwu-Xinjiang-Europe Train) Tianjin-Minsk (2016) Yiwu-London (2017) Xian-Budapest (2017)
8 Land-sea express route between Piraeus and Budapest, via Skopje and Belgrade Source: People s Daily Online
9 Cooperation in the context of OBOR For China it grants: new business opportunities; political and econominc influence; alternative transport routes; the possibility to work off its overcapacities; references for fututre projects.
10 Cooperation in the context of OBOR 16+1 as a part of OBOR ensures its durability grants more opportunities for CEE examples: Budapest-Belgrade, Pupin Bridge, power plant, For the CEE it can ensure infrastructural development (but: EU structural funds) transit fees (but: loan repayments)? support infrastructure
11 Cooperation in the context of OBOR What motivates CEE countries then? Disappointment CEE-EU tensions populism Political instead of economic interests? Impact on CEE-EU relation? Impact on China-EU relation?
12 Thank you for your attention!
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