EU CBS IN ADRIA REGION

Transcription

1 Ipsos Croatia EU CBS IN ADRIA REGION Paris, Dec 2015 Ipsos

2 EU CBS IN ADRIA REGION 1. Adria region 2. CBS in Adria region 3. MCD 4. Correlations 2

3 1. ADRIA REGION Name: Adria or Adriatic region (business people) West Balkan (politicians) 3

4 1. ADRIA REGION 8 Countries / 25M citizens 7 nations & 7 official languages 6 currencies 4 countries on the refugees route 3 big religions 2 letters 1 Nikola TESLA 4

5 1. ADRIA REGION Negative: WW1 started in Sarajevo (Bosnia ) Last war in Europe took place there Balkan refugee routes Low GDP growth High unemployment rate Positive: Tennis, basketball, football, water ball, handball, Adriatic sea,.. 5

6 1. ADRIA REGION GDP per capita PPP % of EU EU % Albania % Bosna % Croatia % Kosovo* % Macedonia % Montenegro % Serbia % Slovenia % World Bank, Eurostat GDP per capita, PPP (current international $), *Est 2012,

7 1. ADRIA REGION GDP growth (annual %) EU 28-0,5 0,2 1,4 Slovenia -2,6-1,0 2,6 Croatia -2,2-0,9-0,4 Kosovo -3,0 8,7 2,8 Macedonia -0,5 2,7 3,8 Montenegro -2,5 3,3 1,5 Serbia -1,0 2,6-1,8 Albania 1,6 1,4 1,9 Bosnia & Herzegovina -1,2 2,5 1,2 World Bank - annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2005 U.S. dollars. Eurostat 7

8 2. EU CBS IN ADRIA REGION Slovenia: since 1995 CSO Croatia: IPSOS Consumer since 1999 (started by Croatian Central Bank) Business since May 2008 Macedonia: since May 2008 IPSOS Montenegro: since May 2012 IPSOS & CBM / ISSP (possible changes from 2016) Serbia: since may 2012 CSO Albania: coming soon (may 2016) Bosna & Herzegovina and Kosovo: Open, evaluation process in place not yet 8

9 2. PUBLISHING & USAGE OF RESULTS Serbia and Montenegro still do not publish results (to short period) Slovenia: results are regularly and professionally published by CSO Paper: Finanace (regularly); Delo (occasionally) TV stations (occasionally): RTV Slo, POP TV, Planet TV WEB sites (regularly): siol.net, sta.si, rtvslo.si, 24ur.com Main users: Central Bank of Slovenia ( Bilten ) UMAR - Office for macroeconomic analysis ( Economic mirror ) 9

10 1. PUBLISHING & USAGE OF RESULTS Croatia (since 2008): results are regularly and professionally published by Croatian National Bank (partner in BCS in Croatia) very occasionally by daily paper Main users (still very passive, test mode): Croatian National Bank Institute of Economics, Zagreb Macedonia (since 2008): results are regularly and professionally published by National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia 10

11 2. AVAILABILITY OF BCS IN ADRIA Industry Reference series* BCS survey data ** Volume of Ind. Production - monthly INDU 1 Slovenia Yes Yes 2 Croatia Yes Yes 3 Macedonia Yes Yes 4 Montenegro Yes Yes 5 Serbia Yes No 6 Albania No No 7 Bosnia & Herzegovina Yes No 8 Kosovo No No * Eurostat ** European Commission 11

12 2. AVAILABILITY OF BCS IN ADRIA Retail trade Reference series* BCS survey data ** Turnover and volume of sales in retail trade - monthly data RETA 1 Slovenia Yes Yes 2 Croatia Yes Yes (2008) 3 Macedonia No Yes (2008) 4 Montenegro Yes Yes (2012) 5 Serbia Yes No 6 Albania No No 7 Bosnia & Herzegovina Yes No 8 Kosovo No No * Eurostat ** European Commission 12

13 2. AVAILABILITY OF BCS IN ADRIA Services Reference series* Reference series* BCS survey data ** Turnover in services - monthly data Turnover in services - quarterly data SERV 1 Slovenia Yes Yes Yes 2 Croatia No Yes Yes (2008) 3 Macedonia No Yes Yes (2008) 4 Montenegro No Yes Yes (2012) 5 Serbia No Yes No 6 Albania No No No Bosnia & 7 Herzegovina No Yes No 8 Kosovo No No No * Eurostat Database ** EU Commission 13

14 2. AVAILABILITY OF BCS IN ADRIA Building Reference series* Reference series* BCS survey data ** Production in construction - monthly data Production in construction - quarterly data BUIL 1 Slovenia Yes Yes Yes 2 Croatia No Yes Yes (2008) 3 Macedonia Yes Yes Yes (2008) 4 Montenegro No Yes Yes (2012) 5 Serbia No Yes No 6 Albania No No No 7 Bosnia & Herzegovina No Yes No 8 Kosovo No No No * Eurostat ** European Commission 14

15 3. MCD REF. MONTHLY SERIES Country INDU RETAIL European Union (28) 4 4 Croatia 3 3 Slovenia 4 4 Montenegro 6 6 Macedonia 5 5 Serbia

16 3. MCD BCS, MONTHLY EU 28 Slovenia Croatia Macedonia Montenegro INDU SERV CONS RETA BUIL ESI NA 16

17 4. CORRELATION BCS REF. SERIES INDU EU 28 Slovenia Croatia Macedonia Montenegro coincident 0,933 0,842 0,702 0,732 0,067 lead 1 0,927 0,885 0,691 0,721-0,030 lead 2 0,897 0,893 0,711 0,651-0,101 Ref., monthly index May / 2015 Aug, y to y-1 difference, seasonally adjusted INDU, monthly, seasonally adjusted 17

18 4. CORRELATION BCS REF. SERIES Retail EU 28 Slovenia Croatia Macedonia Montenegro coincident 0,760 0,744 0,792 NA 0,071 lead 1 0,788 0,767 0,770 NA 0,049 lead 2 0,764 0,801 0,776 NA -0,071 Ref., monthly index May / 2015 Aug, y to y-1 difference, seasonally adjusted INDU, monthly, seasonally adjusted 18

19 4. CORRELATION BCS REF. SERIES BUIL EU 28 Slovenia Croatia Macedonia Montenegro coincident 0,68 0,89 0,91 0,20 0,76 lead 1 0,83 0,86 0,86 0,17 0,80 lead 2 0,82 0,72 0,70 0,27 0,82 Source of Ref series :Eurostat Volume index of production in construction, - quarterly data; y y -1 Seasonally adjusted and adjusted data by working days BSC: quarterly average 19

20 4. CORRELATION BCS REF. SERIES Serv EU 28 Slovenia Croatia coincident 0,79 0,63 0,91 lead 1 0,54 0,55 0,78 lead 2 0,18 0,28 0,48 Source of Ref series :Eurostat Index of turnover in services - quarterly data, y y -1 Seasonally adjusted and adjusted data by working days BSC: quarterly average 20

21 CONSUMER SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2015 We finished one way of Consumer Survey in Bosnia and Herzegovina and we got results for the same period from CSO of Serbia September 2015, Monthly Questions EU 28 SI HR ME MK BH Confidence Indicator (Q2 + Q4 - Q7 + Q11) / 4-5,5-5,2-21,5-19,6-5,3-31,48 Financial situation over last 12 months -7,0-16,3-20,0-17,9-16,0-19,09 Financial situation over next 12 months 0,6-3,4-5,1 3,4 8,6-7,80 General economic situation over last 12 months -11,1-21,7-28,4-23,7-18,7-45,94 General economic situation over next 12 months -4,9 2,1-8,4-5,1 4,2-34,97 Price trends over last 12 months -3,8-1,2 18,1 15,0 21,0 22,94 Price trends over next 12 months 5,0-3,4 1,0-10,0 1,2 16,29 Unemployment expectations over next 12 months 16,3 3,1 21,6 18,5 1,5 31,59 Major purchases at present -0,7-23,1-34,8-51,3-44,8-42,07 Major purchases over next 12 months -15,0-12,6-28,0-36,3-30,1-31,35 Savings at present 7,3-23,4-31,9-45,7-6,6-40,19 Savings over next 12 months -1,2-16,3-51,0-58,3-32,4-51,56 Statement on financial situation of household 16,3 21,9-13,5-0,6-7,4-9,11 21