TRŽIŠTE ELEKTRIČNE ENERGIJE USLOVI I PERSPEKTIVE
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1 Ljubo Maćić TRŽIŠTE ELEKTRIČNE ENERGIJE USLOVI I PERSPEKTIVE ELEKTRANE 2010 VRNJAČKA BANJA,
2 Uslovi za otvaranje tržišta - sadašnje stanje Ponuda EPS-a je danas uglavnom dovoljna da pokrije potrebe tarifnih kupaca, 45 trgovaca ima licencu za trgovinu električnom energijom, Prekogranični prenosni kapaciteti se dodeljuju po javnoj, tržišnoj proceduri i omogućavaju promet znatnih količina električne energije i integraciju u regionalno tržište, Svi potrošači, izuzev domaćinstava, imaju pravo i mogućnost da biraju snabdevača, preko 45% tržišta nema interesa Cene korišćenja prenosnog i distributivnih sistema su regulisane i objavljene, Tehnička pravila za korišćenje prenosne i distributivnih elektromreža su u primeni, JP Elektromreža Srbije je dostavila Agenciji Pravila rada tržišta električne energije. Još se moraju dorañivati. Do tada bi se, u slučaju potrebe, za snabdevanje kvalifikovanih kupaca za balansiranje mogla koristiti privremena pravila. Nije urañeno pravno razdvajanje distribucije el.energije od trgovine na malo. Dakle, proizvodnja EPS-a je već izložena mogućoj konkurenciji.
3 Uslovi za otvaranje tržišta - priprema se novi Zakon o energetici Svi kupci izuzev domaćinstava i malih kupaca izlaze na tržište, Domaćinstva na tržištu od Evropska komisija insistira da se ukidaju regulisane cene energije; ostaju regulisane cene mrežarina i rezervno snabdevanje za one koji ostanu bez snbdevača Pouka iz gasnog sektora Srbije i kupci i snabdevači se moraju dobro pripremiti za tržišne uslove. KAKO BI EPS MOGAO PROĆI NA TRŽIŠTU?
4 Korišćenje kapaciteta u termoelektranama Srbija: podaci za 2009, ostali: podaci za godinu Nemačka, TE na lignit 79.2% Grčka, TE na lignit 73.8% Srbija, TE na lignit (~sve TE) 72.2% EU, TE na lignit 69.2% Poljska, TE na lignit 66.4% Češka, TE na lignit 58.1% Bugarska, TE na lignit 52.0% EU, sve TE 46.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Izvor podataka: EURELECTRIC, Agencija za energetiku RS, EPS
5 Gubici u distributivnoj i prenosnoj mreži u godini Albania Montenegro Macedonia Serbia BiH Romania Bulgaria Hungary Poland Croatia Norway Portugal Sweden Ireland United Kingdom Czeck Republic Greece France EU-27 Denmark Italy Slovenia Austria Germany Spain Belgium Nethernlands Slovakia Finland 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Procenat gubitaka Izvor podataka: EUROSTAT, Agencija za energetiku RS, ECRB
6 Razdvajanje energetskih mreža od proizvodnje, trgovine i prodaje Ciljno stanje Trgovci Nezavisni proizvoñači Uvoz Proizvodnja Trgovina na veliko Prenos/ Transport Distribucija Trgovina na malo Potrošači Konkurencija Konkurencija Regulisane delatnosti Konkurencija
7 Osam evropskih regionalnih tržišta električne energije South-East Evropska komisija: nacionalna tržišta su mala da bi se razvila konkurencija ide se na regionalna, pa panevropsko tržište
8 Dinamika formiranja tržšta električne energije na veliko u Jugoistočnoj Evropi (draft)
9 Koliko plaćaju električnu energiju veliki kupci u regionu? Cene električne energije za industriju u regionu Bez taksi I PDV - Prva polovina Tipski potrošač: godišnja potrošnja 500 do 2000 MWh, za Srbiju 500 kw snaga i 2000 MWh god. potrošnja. Kurs 1 = din Mañarska* 12.8 Hrvatska 9.3 Slovenija 9.3 Grčka* 8.5 Rumunija 8.5 Bugarska 6.4 Makedonija** 5.9 BiH** 5.4 Crna Gora** 4.9 Srbija 4.6 Albanija** * druga polovina ** cela industrija, svi potrošači, prosek cent/kwh Izvor: EUROSTAT, Agencija za energetiku RS, ECRB Koliko je otvaranje tržišta u interesu kupaca u Srbiji? Kratkoročno/dugoročno?
10 EPS 2/3 električne energije iz lignita Šta nas čeka u budućnosti?
11 Klimatske promene Prognoza potrošnje energije u svetu OECD/IEA Gt CO 2 Emisija CO2
12 Kako održati ulogu uglja u proizvodnji električne energije?
13 Kakve elektrane će se graditi u Evropi do 2020?
14 Posledice svetske finansijske krize: status projekata novih elektrana u Nemačkoj
15 Predviñanje budućnosti u energetici nikada nije bilo teže! Ekonomski rast? Cene energenata i energije? Odnosi cena? Energetska politika: klimatske promene, obnovljivi izvori? Ugalj (CCS)? Nuklearne elektrane? Da li vlade treba da imaju značajniju ulogu u energetici?
16 SRBIJA - cene električne energije Moguće promene cena goriva za proizvodnju električne energije: Cene danas Cene očekivanja Trošak emisije CO2 Lignit, domaći < 1.5 /GJ Prirodni gas > 8.0 /GJ
17 Trendovi promene cena električne energije u Srbiji u budućnosti Troškovi emisije CO2 Racionalizacija troškova Profit Nove elektrane i ekologija Troškovi obnovljivih izvora energije? Cena sada Cena posle Za pravi put: stručne podloge i konsenzus o merama.
18 HVALA NA PAŽNJI!
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