Intra-regional and extra-regional trade within Europe and the CIS countries

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1 Intra-regional and extra-regional trade within Europe and the CIS countries 6 7 March, 2014 David Gould, Lead Economist Chief Economist Office Europe and Central Asia Region The World Bank 1

2 Summary CIS countries have been expanding trade outside their region, particularly with Europe Nonetheless, growth of trade as a share of GDP has been sluggish for CIS countries and mainly driven by commodity exports internal structural reform is key, not just trade liberalization Measuring the trade restrictiveness of NTMs by country and region is doable 2

3 CIS is already trading less inside its region, EU intraregional trade has been fairly constant 3

4 Correcting for size bias, intra-regional is still highest for CIS, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Europe 4

5 Moldova s and Georgia s Trade with the EU and ROW has been on the rise 5

6 Belarus and Ukraine trade more within the CIS, but Ukraine s trade is oil based imports 6

7 Russia and Kazakhstan trade more outside CIS, but for Kazakhstan this is due to oil exports to EU 7

8 CIS trade primarily with Russia and EU Country Rank Top Exports Partners ( ) Share of Total Export (%) Rank s Partners Share of Total Import (%) Armenia 1 Russia Russia Armenia 2 Germany China 9.70 Armenia 3 United States Ukraine 5.93 Armenia * EU * EU Azerbaijan 1 Turkey Russia Azerbaijan 2 Russia Turkey Azerbaijan 3 Kazakhstan Germany 8.57 Azerbaijan * EU * EU Belarus 1 Russia Russia Belarus 2 Ukraine Germany 6.46 Belarus 3 Brazil Ukraine 4.59 Belarus * EU * EU Georgia 1 Turkey Turkey Georgia 2 Bulgaria Ukraine 8.97 Georgia 3 United States Germany 6.73 Georgia * EU * EU Kazakhsta 1 Russia Russia Kazakhsta 2 China China Kazakhsta 3 Turkey Germany 6.18 Kazakhsta * EU * EU Kyrgyz Re 1 Russia Russia Kyrgyz Re 2 Kazakhstan China Kyrgyz Re 3 China Kazakhsta 7.77 Kyrgyz Re * EU * EU Moldova 1 Russia Ukraine Moldova 2 Romania Russia 9.32 Moldova 3 Italy China 7.62 Moldova * EU * EU Russia 1 Germany China Russia 2 Turkey Germany Russia 3 China Ukraine 5.51 Russia * EU * EU Ukraine 1 Russia Russia Ukraine 2 Turkey Germany 8.08 Ukraine 3 Italy China 7.58 Ukraine * EU * EU

9 CIS: resources exports, manufacturing imports Country Rank Top Exports Products ( ) Share of Total Export (%) Rank Top Imports Products ( ) Share of Total Import (%) Armenia 1 Beverages, spirits and vinegar Oils & products Armenia 2 Iron and steel Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 9.29 Armenia 3 Natural/cultured pearls, prec stone Electrical mchy equip parts thereof 6.74 Azerbaijan 1 Oils & products Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances Azerbaijan 2 Edible fruit and nuts; peel of citr Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll- stock 9.81 Azerbaijan 3 Articles of iron or steel Electrical mchy equip parts thereof 9.42 Belarus 1 Oils & products Oils & products Belarus 2 Fertilisers Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances Belarus 3 Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll- stock Iron and steel 5.63 Georgia 1 Oils & products Oils & products Georgia 2 Iron and steel Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll- stock 9.97 Georgia 3 Ores, slag and ash Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 9.10 Kazakhstan 1 Oils & products Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances Kazakhstan 2 Iron and steel Oils & products Kazakhstan 3 Copper and articles thereof Articles of iron or steel 9.40 Kyrgyz Republic 1 Edible fruit and nuts; peel of citr Oils & products Kyrgyz Republic 2 Art of apparel & clothing access Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll- stock 8.42 Kyrgyz Republic 3 Edible vegetables and certain roots Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 7.19 Moldova 1 Iron and steel Oils & products Moldova 2 Beverages, spirits and vinegar Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 7.56 Moldova 3 Art of apparel & clothing access Electrical mchy equip parts thereof 7.50 Russia 1 Oils & products Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances Russia 2 Iron and steel Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll- stock Russia 3 Fertilisers Electrical mchy equip parts thereof Ukraine 1 Iron and steel Oils & products Ukraine 2 Oils & products Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 8.96 Ukraine 3 Cereals Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll- stock

10 Overall CIS Trade flows as a share of GDP has increased since 1995 but less so since

11 Trade in the Balkans and EU is slightly more dynamic 11

12 Resources dominate trade for Balkans but only dominates imports for EU Country Rank Top Exports Products ( ) Share of Total Export (%) Albania 1 Mineral fuels, oils & products Mineral fuels, oils & products Albania 2 Footwear, gaiters and the like Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 7.76 Albania 3 Iron and steel Electrical mchy equip parts thereof 6.65 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 Aluminium and articles thereof Mineral fuels, oils & products Bosnia and Herzegovina 2 Mineral fuels, oils & products Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 8.25 Bosnia and Herzegovina 3 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll- stock 6.14 Croatia 1 Mineral fuels, oils & products Mineral fuels, oils & products Croatia 2 Electrical mchy equip parts thereof Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances Croatia 3 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances Electrical mchy equip parts thereof 7.45 EU27 1 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances Mineral fuels, oils & products EU27 2 Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll- stock Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances EU27 3 Electrical mchy equip parts thereof Electrical mchy equip parts thereof 9.64 Macedonia, FYR 1 Iron and steel Mineral fuels, oils & products Macedonia, FYR 2 Art of apparel & clothing access, not knitted Iron and steel 8.00 Macedonia, FYR 3 Miscellaneous chemical products Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 6.99 Montenegro 1 Aluminium and articles thereof Mineral fuels, oils & products Montenegro 2 Mineral fuels, oils & products Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 7.71 Montenegro 3 Iron and steel Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll- stock 6.69 Turkey 1 Vehicles o/t railw/tramw roll- stock Mineral fuels, oils & products Turkey 2 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances Turkey 3 Art of apparel & clothing access, knitted Iron and steel 9.02 Serbia 1 Iron and steel Mineral fuels, oils & products Serbia 2 Electrical mchy equip parts thereof Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances 9.54 Serbia 3 Boilers, machinery & mechanical appliances Electrical mchy equip parts thereof Rank Top Imports Products ( ) Share of Total Import (%)

13 Major trading partners for Balkans and EU are the EU Country Rank Top Exports Partners ( ) Share of Total Export (%) Rank Top Imports Partners ( ) Share of Total Import (%) Albania 1 Italy Italy Albania 2 Greece Greece Albania 3 China China 6.75 Albania * EU * EU Bosnia and Herzegovina 1 Croatia Croatia Bosnia and Herzegovina 2 Italy Germany Bosnia and Herzegovina 3 Serbia Serbia Bosnia and Herzegovina * EU * EU Croatia 1 Italy Italy Croatia 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina Germany Croatia 3 Slovenia Russia 8.88 Croatia * EU * EU EU27 1 Germany Germany EU27 2 France China 7.29 EU27 3 United States Netherlands 6.32 EU27 * EU * EU Macedonia, FYR 1 Germany Germany Macedonia, FYR 2 Italy Russia 9.79 Macedonia, FYR 3 Bulgaria Greece 8.96 Macedonia, FYR * EU * EU Montenegro 1 Serbia Serbia Montenegro 2 Italy Greece 7.37 Montenegro 3 Greece Germany 7.13 Montenegro * EU * EU Turkey 1 Germany Russia Turkey 2 United Kingdom Germany 9.42 Turkey 3 France China 8.80 Turkey * EU * EU Serbia 1 Italy Russia

14 What are the bilateral tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade? Methodology based on a study we did for South Asia (Kee, 2013) What we did: Undertook a large survey in the 39 countries to carefully account for all NTM barriers. Tariffs (for the most part) are easier to observe. Utilizing global trade data (over 5000 goods) estimated the impact of tariff and non-tariff barriers on bilateral trade flows. 14

15 Estimation of Ad Valorem Equivalent of NTMs Let m nij denote the quantity imported, then using the gravity model m nij =exp(α nij +ε nij t nij +β nij NTM1 nij + µ nij NTM2 nij +u nij ) (1) NTM1 nij is a dummy on SPS and TBT measure, NTM2 nij is a dummy on non-sps and non-tbt measure, t nij are tariffs, and α nij is the standard gravity model variables: α nij = a n + a n1 ln(gdp i )+a n2 ln(gdp j )+a n3 ln(distance ij )+ +a n4 common_border ij + +a n5 landlock i +a n6 landlock j (2) Then we can calculate the ad valorem equivalent of the NTMs as: AVE1 nij =(exp(β nij )-1)/ε nij (3) AVE2 nij =(exp(µ nij )-1)/ε nij (4) where ε nij is the bilateral import elasticity of good n between country i and j 15

16 Estimates of AVE of NTMs, and its Trade Impacts SPS or TBT measure non- SPS or non- TBT measure Country NTM Coverage Percent of Goods with Binding NTM Ad valorem equivalent of avg. NTM Average estimated NTM ad valorem rate NTM Coverage Percent of Goods with Binding NTM Ad valorem equivalent of avg. NTM Average estimated NTM ad valorem rate ARG CHL ECU EGY EUN GTM HND IDN JPN KAZ KEN KHM LBN MEX MUS NAM NIC PER UGA URY VEN AFG BGD IND LKA NPL PAK Average

17 Estimating OTRIs The OTRI captures the trade policy distortions that each country imposes on its import bundle. It measures the uniform tariff equivalent of the country tariff and non-tariff barriers (NTB) that would generate the same level of import value for the country in a given year and implicitly defined by: OTR I i = n m ni ε ni T ni / n m ni ε ni (5) where m ni is the import value of good n in country i evaluated at exogenous world prices, T ni is the overall level of protection that country i imposes on imports of good n, ε ni is the import demand 17

18 Estimates of OTRIs, and its Trade Impacts Country Overall Trade Restr. OTRI of the AVE of OTRI of the AVE of non- OTRI based on Index SPS and TBT SPS and non- TBT Tariff ARG CHL CHN COL CRI ECU EGY EUN GTM HND IDN JPN KAZ KEN KHM MDG MEX MUS NAM NIC URY VEN AFG IND LKA NPL PAK Average

19 Thank You 19

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