AAPA Shifting Trade Patterns Ocean Carrier Issues and Perspectives
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1 AAPA Shifting Trade Patterns Ocean Carrier Issues and Perspectives January 2014
2 The Global Container Shipping Industry Over 400 companies Operating 4,974 ships (fully cellular) & 17.3M of capacity Top 20 continue to dominate the industry Profitability remains an elusive opportunity Source: Alphaliner; nceas.edu; Norbridge Analysis Page 1
3 Few carriers were able to achieve net profits during the first three quarters of Millions of USD $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 -$200 -$400 -$600 Global Container Industry Net Profit/Loss by Carrier YTD 2013 (Q3) *Note: 2Q results for OOCL Source: Alphaliner Newsletters
4 The industry has incurred an estimated $7.3 billion in operating losses since 2009 Billions of USD $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 -$5 -$10 -$15 -$20 Global Container Shipping Industry Profit/Loss Note: 2012 Based on Alphaliner survey of operating results for 21 of the Top 30 carriers Source: Alphaliner
5 The global container industry: the profitability equation Scale economies + Increased Efficiency + Higher Utilization = Improved profitability
6 Container ships of 7,500 and greater represent two thirds of the vessels to be delivered between 2012 and 2016 Number of Vessels 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, , CY ,000-18,500 Cellular Container Fleet Projections 2012 & 2016 (Vessels) 176 7,500-9, ,100-7, ,000-5, ,000-3, <3000 3, CY2016 <3000 3,000-3,999 4,000-5,099 5,100-7,499 7,500-9,999 10,000-18,500 Source: Alphaliner; Norbridge Analysis Page 5
7 and 84 percent of on-order TEU capacity 25 Cellular Container Fleet Projections 2012 & 2016 (TEU Capacity) Millions of CY ,000-18, ,500-9, ,100-7, ,000-5, ,000-3, < CY2016 <3000 3,000-3,999 4,000-5,099 5,100-7,499 7,500-9,999 10,000-18,500 Source: Alphaliner; Norbridge Analysis Page 6
8 The largest vessel strings calling the Atlantic and Pacific coasts have increased significantly between 2010 and 2014 Largest Average Vessels Deployed on Container Services Calling North America January 2010 vs. January 2014 Coast Year Service Name Vessel Avg. TEU Capacity Count MSC/CMA CGM - S Atlantic, MX & 2010 Atlantic Gulf/Victory Bridge 7 6, MSC - Golden Gate Service 7 8, Maersk Line/Safmarine - TP6/AE ,556 Pacific MSC/CMA CGM ANL/Delmas/Maersk Line/US Lines ,416 Pearl River Express MSC/CMA CGM - S Atlantic, MX & 2010 Gulf Gulf/Victory Bridge 7 6, MSC - S Atlantic/Mexico/Gulf 4 6,306 Source: Blue Water Data; Norbridge Analysis Page 7
9 As of 2012, the United States had not returned to 2007 peak historical total container volumes Compound Annual Growth Rate 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% North American Container Traffic Growth USWC US US Gulf Mexico Canada USEC Container Traffic Growth (Millions of ) Source: JOC PIERS Data; Norbridge Analysis Page 8
10 Eight of the top 10 global carriers participate in alliances P3 Alliance G6 Alliance #10 #11 #12 #1 #2 #3 CKYH Alliance #17 All Other #7 #6 #15 #16 #18 #19 #4 #20 #5 #8 #9 Note 1: Ranking based on total current and on-order capacity Source: Alphaliner Page 9 #14 #13
11 Collectively, the three emerging global shipping alliances carried an estimated 70 percent of total U.S. loaded container traffic between 2005 & % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% USEC Loaded Container Traffic by Carrier/Alliance % 17% 20% 25% 28% 34% 25% 26% 22% 35% 30% 11% 29% 3% 19% 49% US USWC USEC US Gulf P3 Alliance G6 Alliance CKYH Alliance All Other Source: JOC PIERS Data; Norbridge Analysis Page 10
12 The three largest alliances account for 52 percent of the projected world fleet and 69 percent (operational & on order) of its projected capacity Current and On-Order Container Vessels (Ships) Q Current and On-Order Container Vessel Capacity () Q % 30% P3 G6 31% 38% P3 G6 CKYH CKYH 9% 13% All Other 13% 18% All Other Total Vessels: 5,221 Total TEU Capacity: 19.5M Source: Alphaliner Top 100 Data; Norbridge Analysis Page 11
13 P3 Alliance Overview Source: Lloyd s List Intelligence Page 12
14 Example of P3 Service Changes MSC North Europe USEC / Gulf Service Profile MSC North Europe USEC/US Gulf Services Service Name MSC - North Atlantic MSC - South Atlantic/Mexico/Gulf P3-North Atlantic P3 - South Atlantic/Mexico/Gulf P3 - Atlantic/Gulf Port Rotation Current MSC Services Bremerhaven, Felixstowe, Rotterdam, Antwerp, Le Havre, NY, Boston, Philly, Baltimore, Norfolk, NY, Bremerhaven Antwerp, Rotterdam, Le Havre, Charleston, Freeport, Verazcruz, Altamira, Houston, NOLA, Mobile, Freeport, Savannah, Charleston-Antwerp Proposed P3 Services Bremerhaven, Felixstowe, Rotterdam, Antwerp, Le Havre, NY, Baltimore, Norfolk, NY, Bremerhaven Antwerp, Rotterdam, Bremerhaven, Le Havre, Charleston, Freeport, Miami, Veracruz, Altamira, Miami, Savannah, Charleston, Antwerp Antwerp, Rotterdam, Felixstowe, Bremerhaven, Le Havre, NY, Charleston, Savannah, Houston, NOLA, Mobile, Freeport, Norfolk, Le Havre # Vessels and Avg. Vessel Size 5 x 4,544 4 x 6,306 5 x 4,400 6 x 8,400 6 x 8,400 Source: BlueWater Data; Norbridge Analysis
15 Example of P3 Service Changes Maersk Service Profile Number of Services Current Maersk Services vs. Proposed P3 Services Asia-Europe Transpacific Transatlantic Current Maersk Services Proposed P3 Services Source: Maersk Website; Norbridge Analysis
16 Evolving alliances structures could provide the path to significant consolidation Carriers 1. Maersk 2. MSC 3. CMA-CGM 4. Evergreen 5. COSCO 6. Hapag-Lloyd 7. Hanjin 8. APL 9. China Shipping 10. Mitsui OSK 11. OOCL 12. Hamburg Sud 13. NYK 14. Yangming 15. PIL 16. K Line 17. Zim 18. Hyundai 19. UASC TODAY Maersk CMA-CGM/ MSC Grand Alliance NWA CKYH Med Consol. P3 G6 CKYH Future Alliance? 15 FUTURE Max Consol. P3 G3-7? CKYH+?
17 Shifting Trade Pattern Implications Asia via Panama Fewer strings 6,500-7,500 vessels Expanded feeder networks WCSA NCSA USG US Atlantic Asia via Suez Incremental strings 8,000-9,000 vessels Significant interline NEA SEA ISC ME Med Some Atlantic Coast deployment segmentation
18 Shifting Network Implications Port consolidation or expansion? Terminal rationalization-a vexing problem in many major gateway ports Inland operations Intermodal rail Inland CYs Equipment
19 AAPA Shifting Trade Patterns Ocean Carrier Issues and Perspectives January 2014
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