Appendix 8: Fitted distribution parameters for ship location

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1 Appendix 8: Fitted distribution parameters for ship location Drogden Southbound Data Fitted Average Stdev Ratio,4 Registrations Mixed dist Channel borders ,12,1 Registrations Mixed distribution,8,6,4, viii

2 Drogden Northbound Data Fitted Average 5 51 Stdev Ratio,6 Registrations Mixed dist Channel borders ,12,1 Registrations Mixed distribution,8,6,4, ix

3 Flinten Northbound Data Fitted Average 3 33 Stdev Ratio,5 Registrations Mixed dist Channel borders ,12,1 Registrations Mixed distribution,8,6,4, x

4 Flinten Southbound Data Fitted Average Stdev Ratio,6 Registrations Mixed dist Channel borders ,12,1 Registrations Mixed distribution,8,6,4, xi

5 Ven West Southbound Data Fitted Average Stdev Ratio,7 Registrations Mixed dist Channel borders ,1,9,8,7,6,5,4,3,2,1-4616, , ,83 Registrations -3297, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,6564 Mixed distribution xii

6 Ven West Northbound Data Fitted Average Stdev Ratio,14 Registrations Mixed dist Channel borders ,14,12,1,8,6,4,2-4616, , ,83 Registrations -3297, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,6564 Mixed distribution xiii

7 Ven East Northbound Data Fitted Average Stdev Ratio,7 Registrations Mixed dist Channel borders ,16,14,12,1,8,6,4,2-2496, , ,727 Registrations -1782, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,4324 Mixed distribution xiv

8 Ven East Southbound Data Fitted Average Stdev Ratio,28 Registrations Mixed dist Channel borders ,16,14,12,1,8,6,4,2-2496, , ,727 Registrations -1782, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,4324 Mixed distribution xv

9 Appendix 9: Passage situation distributions Drogden Probability Passage distance [m] Drogden 35% 3 probability 25% 2 15% 1 5%, 6, 12, 18, 24, 3, 36, 42, 48, 54, 6, 66, Passage distance [m] Drogden Maximum width of passing ships [m] Passage distance [m] xvi

10 Broen Probability Passage distance [m] Broen 8 7 probability , 125,5 221, 316,5 412, 57,5 63, 698,5 794, 889,5 Passage distance [m] Broen Maximum width of passing ships [m] Passage distance [m] xvii

11 VenØst Probability Passage distance [m] VenØst 12% 1 probability 8% 6% 4% 2% 1, 119, 228, 337, 446, 555, 664, 773, 882, 991, 11, 129, Passage distance [m] VenØst Maximum width of passing ships [m] Passage distance [m] xviii

12 VenVest Probability Passage distance [m] VenVest 16% 14% probability 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 8, 272, 464, 656, 848, 14, 1232, 1424, 1616, 188, 2, 2192, Passage distance [m] VenVest Maximum width of passing ships [m] Passage distance [m] xix

13 HH Probability Passage distance [m] HH 16% 14% probability 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2%, 22, 44, 66, 88, 11, 132, 154, 176, 198, 22, 242, Passage distance [m] HH Maximum width of passing ships [m] Passage distance [m] xx

14 Appendix 1: Estimation of the number of leisure boats in Øresund According to the risk model, the total number of leisure boats must be determined. This information is not given in any reference; hence this number must be estimated. Beside the total number of leisure boats, the amount of time the boats spend outside harbour must be estimated as well. Some of the larger harbours log information about the number of permanent residents in the harbour and the annual number of guest nights. Traffic derived from guest nights and traffic derived from permanent residents in harbours in Øresund contribute to the total number of leisure boats. These two parts are described in the following sections. Accounting traffic from guest nights The estimation of the number of leisure boats in Øresund is based on the following assumptions: Each coastline kilometre is associated with a certain number of guest nights. The coastline intensity for Copenhagen County is representative for all coastline kilometres in Øresund Each guest night has associated a corresponding amount of time at sea, which is assumed to be three hours per day. The lengths of the coastlines in Øresund are given in Table A- 1. Location Coastline Øresund [km] Copenhagen County 63 Frederiksborg County 42 Roskilde County 36 Sweden 139 In total 28 Table A- 1 Number of coastline kilometres for the different counties in Denmark and for the Swedish coastline. The annual number of permanent residents and number of guest night at relevant harbours are shown in Table A- 2. xxi

15 Location Permanent residents at harbour Annual number of guest nights Svanemøllen*, ref. [26] Rungsted*, ref. [27] 8 27 Helsingør, ref. [28] 95 1 Hellerup* Skovshoved*, ref. [29] Dragør*, ref. [3] Helsingborg, ref. [31] Copenhagen, ref. [7] # Copenhagen County, ref. [7] # Table A- 2 Annual number of permanent residents and number of guest night at relevant harbours. The two last rows are for the summer period (June-August) only (marked with #). The total coastline in Øresund is approximately 4.4 larger than the coastline of Copenhagen County. Using this factor and that the annual number of guest nights in Copenhagen County from Danmarks Statistik, the number of guest nights is about 186. for Øresund in total. In the summer period (June August) there are 92 days. Assuming that every guest night corresponds to three hours of sailing, imply that there are about 253 ships on the sea on average during day and night. Accounting for traffic from permanent residents in harbours The information of the total number of permanent residents in the harbours in Øresund is not logged at Danmarks Statistik. However, some of the larger harbours logs this information. In Table A- 2 five of the harbours (marked with *) reside in Copenhagen County. The number of guest nights in these harbours is summarized to The proportions between guest nights and permanent residents in these harbours are computed and the average of these proportions is computed. Assuming that this weighted proportion between guest nights in these harbours and Copenhagen County will represent the same proportion of permanent residents, the number of permanent residents in Copenhagen County can be estimated to Using the same proportion between Copenhagen County and the rest of the Øresund region, the total number of ships that permanently resides in harbours in Øresund can be estimated to In order to estimate the percentage of leisure ships which is outside harbour, some of the contact persons for the harbours listed in Table A- 2, were asked about their perceptions. These perceptions are listed in Table A- 3. xxii

16 Harbour Summer day Maximum Svanemøllen 1 2 Hellerup 4 Skovshoved - Dragør 1 25% Table A- 3 Estimated percentage of ships outside harbour. According to Table A- 3 it can be assumed that during summer on average 1 is away at daytime (e.g. 12 hours). Thus, 543 leisure boats are at sea during a summer day. It is assumed that there are no leisure boats during the night, thus there are 2522 boats per 24 hour period. Finally, summarizing the traffic corresponding to permanent residents and guest nights, it is assumed that 1 of the permanent residents also contributes to guest nights. Further, it is assumed that there are approximately 25 fishing boats per day in Øresund. The total number of leisure boats and fishing vessel in Øresund during day and night in the summer period is thus 3. To compute a distribution of leisure boats and fishing vessel per month in Øresund, the following assumption are taken: 8 of the boats leaving the harbours sail in the Øresund area, the rest is assumed to sail outside Øresund. Summer period covers the months June, July and August. During the spring and fall months (April, May and September) the traffic is assumed to be 2 of the traffic in the summer period. During the winter period (October to March) no traffic is assumed.. Based on the above assumptions a distribution for the traffic of leisure boats and fishing vessel can be computed. The distribution is shown in Table A- 4 and the resulting annual number of leisure boats and fishing vessels in Øresund is Month Ships per day January February March April 48 May 48 June 24 July 24 August 24 September 48 October November December Table A- 4 Distribution for leisure boats and fishing vessel. xxiii

17 Appendix 11: Visit to ports in Øresund Visits to Danish ports given by port, gross tonnage (GT) and year Avedøreværket Less than 25 GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT and over Cargo ships Dragør Less than 25 GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships Passengerships and ferries GT Cargo ships Passengerships and ferries GT Cargo ships GT and over Cargo ships Kastrup Less than 25 GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships Passengerships and ferries GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT and over Cargo ships xxiv

18 Copenhagen Less than 25 GT Cargo ships Passengerships and ferries GT Cargo ships Passengerships and ferries GT Cargo ships Passengerships and ferries GT Cargo ships Passengerships and ferries GT Cargo ships Passengerships and ferries GT Cargo ships Passengerships and ferries GT and over Cargo ships Passengerships and ferries Tuborg Less than 25 GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT and over Cargo ships Helsingør Less than 25 GT Cargo ships Passengerships and ferries GT Cargo ships Passengerships and ferries GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships Passengerships and ferries GT Cargo ships Passengerships and ferries GT Cargo ships Passengerships and ferries GT and over Cargo ships Snekkersten Less than 25 GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships xxv

19 GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT and over Cargo ships Køge Less than 25 GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships GT Cargo ships Passengerships and ferries GT and over Cargo ships xxvi

20 Visit to the port of Landskrona Calls in Landskrona 3 25 BT Less than 25 BT BT BT BT BT BT More than 25 BT xxvii

21 Appendix 12: General description of Bayesian network A Bayesian Network is a graphical representation of uncertain quantities reveals explicitly the probabilistic dependence between the set variables is designed as a knowledge representation of the considered problem A BN is a network with directed arcs and no cycles The nodes represents random variables and/or decisions Arcs into random variables indicate probabilistic dependence Causal modelling most effectively does the model building Bayesian networks offer 1. Allows one to learn about causal relationships. -This knowledge allow to make predictions in the presence of interventions / observations 2. BN in conjunction with Bayesian statistical techniques facilitate the combination of domain knowledge and data -prior or domain knowledge 3. BN can readily handle incomplete data -missing data 4. Bayesian methods in conjunction with BN and other methods offers efficient methods to avoid over fitting of data xxviii

22 Appendix 13: Bayesian network for frequency models xxix

23 Ship traffic distribution network xxx

24 Human failure network xxxi

25 Ship collision crossing ships calculation of geometrical diameter xxxii

26 Ship collision crossing ships frequency calculation xxxiii

27 Ship collision passing ships frequency calculation xxxiv

28 Ship-obstacle collision grounding ships frequency calculation xxxv

29 Appendix 14: Bayesian network for consequence models xxxvi

30 Ship collision passing and crossing ships consequence calculation xxxvii

31 Ship collision grounding ships consequence calculation xxxviii

32 Appendix 15: Accident costs in Norwegian waters Cost element Oil tanker Bulk Carrier Passenger Vessel Fishing Vessel Typical accident Rescue operations Clean-up costs Damage to ship and cargo Personal damage /loss of lives Environmental damage Total cost Estimates of different costs (in NOK million) for accidents involving different ship types in Norwegian waters, ref. [6] NOK 1 DKK xxxix

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