Intense Hurricane Strike Reconstruction, Vieques, Puerto Rico

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1 Intense Hurricane Strike Reconstruction, Vieques, Puerto Rico

2 beach vegetated barrier Caribbean Sea N Vieques, Puerto Rico 200 m b) a) 67ºW 65ºW ºN 1928 PRP12 headland La Parguera 17.5ºN Donnelly and Woodruff, 2007 (Nature, v. 447, p )

3 Vieques, Puerto Rico Grain Size ocean LPG12 LPG4 mean grain size (μm) LPG3 mean grain size (μm) (Hugo) yrs BP 100 Age AD (Betsy) Cs-137 peak (Ca. 1963) Depth (cm) 2500 yrs BP (San Felipe) 15 Depth (cm) yrs BP 400 vegetated barrier 3 beach 4 12 N Caribbean Sea 200 m headland Donnelly and Woodruff, 2007 (Nature, v. 447, p )

4 Vieques vs. New York paleo-storm reconstructions Vieques Donnelly and Woodruff, 2007 New York Scileppi and Donnelly, 2007 cumulative sum of events since 2500 yrs BP yrs BP

5 Controls on Hurricane Activity Vieques Donnelly and Woodruff (2007) SST African Storms Nyberg et al. (2002) upper winds El Niño Laguna Pallcacocha Moy et al. (2002) Lake Ossa, West Cameroon Nguetsop et al. (2004)

6 Impacts on coastal morpho-dynamics: how will landforms respond?

7 Reversing Storm Hotspots, October Oct97-25Oct97 13Oct97-20Oct97 Shoreline change (m) FRF Erosion Accretion Storm erosion and recovery North Carolina Referenc e Line 76 15'W 76 0'W 75 45'W 75 30'W 75 15'W Corolla 'N 36 15'N 20 Alb ema rle So und 36 0'N 36 0'N 'N North Carolina Oregon 35 45'N Inlet 80 Rodanthe 'N 35 30'N Oregon Inlet W V SC VA Atlantic Ocean Corolla Oregon Inlet 110 Paml ic o So und Av on North Distance along coast (km) South 35 15'N 130 km 35 15'N Hatteras Point Kilo m e te rs Cape Hatteras 76 15'W 76 0'W 75 45'W 75 30'W 75 15'W Figures from Jeff List, USGS

8 Dramatic shoreline change N MA N CT RI NL BI 25 km NYC Atlantic Ocean Pre-1938 Hurricane Geometry Sandy Point Upland LITTLE NARRAGANSETT BAY Pawcatuck River 41 o N 41 o N 1 km Marsh Sand BLOCK ISLAND SOUND 71 o W 71 o W Adapted from Warren and Niering 1993

9 1635 pine/scrub oak distribution NORTH 50 km Oyster Pond 1869 Other landscape responses Oyster Pond, MA

10 Population and wealth have substantially increased Coastal population in the states impacted by the 1821 hurricane (MD, DE, NJ, NY, and CT) now exceeds 31 million Insured coastal property is over 1 trillion dollars Rockaway Beach, NY

11 2005 coastal county population

12 Cape Cod Population Increases

13 Total hurricane losses since 1900 AD

14 What would losses be if these storms stuck today?

15 Tropical cyclone strikes in New England (Donna) (Carol) If these storms were to repeat over the next 22 years they would result in about 100 billion (2005 $) in damage. 38 billion would likely result from a storm like the Hurricane alone (Dianne) 1954 (Edna) 39 Hurricane Bob resulted in about 2 billion in damage

16 Worst case scenario south shore

17 Worst case scenario Cape Cod Bay

18 Conceptual Model of New England Salt Marsh Development after Redfield (1972) low marsh peat (Spartina alterniflora dominated) high marsh peat (Spartina patens dominated) sand or mud flat basement

19 Boston Vegetation Response to accelerated SLR Nag Pond cordgrass marsh hay water 6 5 m Nag Pond transect Salt Marsh Upland Beach Water 200 meters Prudence Island, RI 7

20 Vegetation Response to accelerated SLR Boston Distance (m) s Depth (cm) high marsh peat low marsh peat basal sand 250 Donnelly and Bertness, 2001 (PNAS, v. 98, p )

21 The Redfield model with a recent twist low marsh peat (Spartina alterniflora dominated) high marsh peat (Spartina patens dominated) sand or mud flat basement gravel and sand

22 Thank You! More information can be found at:

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