CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (BASE PERIOD NOVEMBER 2009 = 100)

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1 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (BASE PERIOD NOVEMBER 2009 = 100) No. 504 February 2012

2 BRIEF METHODOLOGY: The CPI measures the average change over time in prices of goods and services consumed by people for day to day living. The construction of the CPI combines economic theory, sampling and other statistical techniques using data from other surveys to produce a weighted measure of average price changes in the Nigerian economy. The weighting is applied to capture the importance of the selected commodities in the entire index. The production of the CPI requires skills of economists, statisticians, computer scientists, data collectors and others. Key in the construction of the price index is the selection of the market basket of goods and services. Every month, informants spread across the country provide price data for the computation of the CPI. To ensure consistency, the same respondents are visited every month as long as he or she is available and willing to give out information. The market items currently comprise of 740 goods and services regularly priced across all 36 states of the Federation and the FCT. The first stage in the calculation of the CPI is the collection of prices on each item (740 goods and services) from outlets in each sector (rural or urban) for each state. Prices are then averaged for each item according to sector across the state. Next step is to use the average price to calculate the basic index for each commodity: The current year average price of each commodity is compared with the base year s period average price to obtain a relative price. The Laspeyeres formula is then applied to compute aggregated index for each class. A class is composed of a multitude of commodities which have a similar consumption purpose. Here the sum of the product of weights (obtained from the expenditure survey) and relative prices for each item is divided by the sum of the weight of the items in that class, and the result

3 multiplied by 100 gives the required index number. This index number is still classified according to the urban or rural sector for each of the 36 states and the FCT. These yield 85 classes, 48 groups and 12 divisions indices per sector of a state for the 36 states and FCT. The indices are then aggregated into the support indices below: 1. The Country composite index 2. The Urban Composite index 3. The Rural Composite index 4. The Combined Urban and Rural State Composite index The survey methodology generates 3774 all items indices for all states and the FCT. This edition of the Statistical News contains the revised Consumer Price Index (CPI) based on Nigeria Living Standard Survey (NLSS) 2003/2004. The consumption expenditure data were re valued to November 2009, which is the base period for the revised CPI. The May 2003 and September 1985 based indices are being continued using factors derived from the new CPI. All of these indices will yield the same price change for any commodity group contained in all the series. A new sub index Imported Food Index is available in the revised CPI. Note: The urban and rural indices were weighted with the ratio of their populations to the national i.e and respectively to compute the composite indices at the 12 COICOP functions and all items levels. This may cause variance between a recalculated all items index using the weights published on table 2 and the published all items index because the published weights were computed only from consumption expenditure survey result. The following breakdown highlights the components of the current CPI:

4 FOOD AND NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Vegetables Potatoes, Yam & other tubers Food products nec Coffee, tea and cocoa Soft drinks ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES, TOBACCO Spirits Wine Tobacco Narcotics CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR Clothing materials, other articles of clothing Garments Cleaning, repair and hire of clothing Shoes and other footwear Repair and hire of of footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS Actual and imputed rentals for housing Water supply Miscellaneous services relating to the dwelling Electricity Gas Liquid fuel Solid fuels FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT Furniture and furnishings Carpets and other floor coverings Repair of Furniture Household textiles Major household appliances whether electric or not Repair of household appliances Glassware, tableware and household utensils Non-durable household goods Domestic services and household services HEALTH Pharmaceutical products Medical services Dental services Paramedical services Hospital services TRANSPORT Motor cars Motor cycles Bicycles Vehicle spare parts Fuels and lubricants for personal transportation Maintenance and repair of personal transport Passenger transport by road Passenger transport by air Passenger transport by sea and inland waterways COMMUNICATION Postal services Telephone and telefax equipment Telephone and telefax services RECREATION AND CULTURE Audio-visual, photographic and information Photographic development Musical instrument Recreational and sporting services Games of chance EDUCATION Books & stationery RESTAURANTS AND HOTELS Catering services Accommodation services MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES Hairdressing salons and personal grooming Appliances, articles and products for personal care Jewellery, clocks and watches Insurance Other services. Imported Food

5 ALL ITEMS INDEX The Composite Consumer Price Index which measures inflation rose to 11.9 percent year on year in February This figure is 0.7 percentage points lower than 12.6 percent recorded in the previous month. The monthly composite CPI was higher by 0.3 percent when compared with January The increase in the headline index, composed of the core and food indices, was due to the partial petrol subsidy removal that pushed up prices of many food and non food items including transport fares (not transportation in general which has 9 components as shown above). The cost of transportation of food to markets which is merely a part of the transportation category in the CPI also increased and thus revealed the impact of the partial removal of the subsidy on food prices. However, the monthon month change of 0.3 percent indicates a relative moderation in price increases between January and February of this year as prices have been fully incorporated into producer costs. Seasonal adjustments have also occurred as prices in the urban areas declined in February after higher spending in December which usually pushes prices higher during that period. The urban inflation rate was 12.6 percent year on year while the rural figure was 11.3 for February The urban All Items index declined by 0.2 percent on month on month, while the corresponding rural index increase by 0.6 percent when compared with their preceding month. The biggest contributors to the consumer inflation were the high prices of most food items, liquid and solid fuels, furniture and furnishings and transport fares. The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve month period ending February 2012 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve month period was This was slightly higher than the 10.9 percent recorded for the preceding month. The corresponding 12 month year on year average percentage changes for urban and rural indices were 9.4 and 12.2 respectively.

6 FOOD INDEX In February, the level of the Composite Food Index was higher than the corresponding level a year ago by 12.9 percent. This was lower than 13.1 percent recorded in the previous month. Compared with January 2012 figure, average monthly food prices rose in February 2012 by 2.8 percent. The rise in the food inflation was mainly due to the increasing cost of cereals, yam, other tubers, cooking oil, meat, fruit, vegetables and beverages. The average annual rate of rise of the index was 10.6 percent (year on year) for the twelve month period ending February It is important to note that grains and other cereals and tubers constitute over 46% of total household food expenditure. Also rice which constitutes about 9% of household expenditure and some other grains have a significant import element and given their large demand, the imported food segment will clearly be high. ALL ITEMS LESS FAR M PRODUCE The All items less Farm Produce index which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products rose by 13.5 percent year on year, while the average 12 month annual rate of rise of the index was 12.0 percent for the twelve month period ending February On a month on month basis, the core index increased 1.5 percent in February The increase was mainly on transport fares (not transportation in general which has 9 sub divisions), gas, liquid and solid fuels, clothing materials, furniture and furnishing materials and services which are usually based on personal services (hair dressers, shoe cleaners, personal assistants, etc) who require transportation by road, or petrol, in the case of barbershops to power generators and thus had to factor in price increases of petrol. This affected the price of their services. For more enquiries relating to the CPI revision contact kocimo@nigerianstat.gov.ng

7 Table 1 Composite Consumer Price Index (Base November 2009 = 100) All All Items Items less Farm Index Produce Monthly 12- Month Average Monthon change (%) Year-on change (%) 12-Month average change (%) Monthly Monthon change (%) Yearon change (%) 12- Month average change (%) Food Monthly Monthon change (%) Yearon change (%) 12- Month average change (%) Weights Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

8 2010 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

9 Inflation: Composite Year-on Change (%) Food All Items less Farm Produce All Items Jan 2. Inflation: Composite 12-Month Average Change (%) Apr Jul Oct Food All Items less Farm Produce All Items 0 0 A J O 1 10-Jan A Apr J Jul O 1 A J O 1 Oct 11-Jan Apr Jul Oct 12-Jan

10 Table 2 Composite Consumer Price Index (Base November 2009 = 100) All Items All Items less Farm Produce. All Items less Farm Produce. and Energy Imported Food Food Food & Non Alcoholic Bev. Alcoholic Beverage. Tobacco and Kola Clothing and Footwear Housing Water, Electricity. Gas and Other Fuel Furnishings & Household Equipment Maintenance. Health. Transport Communication Recreation & Culture. Education Restaurant & Hotels Miscellaneous Goods & Services Month-on (%) Year-on (%) Weights Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun e July Aug Sep

11 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

12 Jan-09 Mar 3. Inflation -Composite All Items (%) May July Sept Nov Jan-10 Mar May July Sept Nov Jan-11 Mar May Year-on Rate 12-Month Average Jul Sep Nov Jan-12

13 Table 2 Composite Consumer Price Index (Base May 2003 = 100) All Items All Items less Farm Produce. All Items less Farm Produce and Energy Food Food & Non Alcoholic Bev. Alcoholic Beverage. Tobacco and Kola Clothing and Footwear Housing Water, Electricity. Gas and Other Fuel Furnishings & Household Equipment Maintenance. Health. Transport Communication Recreation & Culture. Education Restaurant & Hotels Miscellaneous Goods & Services Month-on (%) Year-on (%) Weights Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

14 2010 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

15 3. Inflation -Composite All Items (%) Year-on (%) 12-month average (%)

16 Table 3 Urban Consumer Price Index (Base November 2009 = 100) All Items All Items less Farm Produce. All Items less Farm Produce. and Energy Imported Food Food Food & Non Alcoholic Bev. Alcoholic Beverage. Tobacco and Kola Clothing and Footwear Housing Water, Electricity. Gas and Other Fuel Furnishings & Household Equipment Maintenance. Health. Transport Communication Recreation & Culture. Education Restaurant & Hotels Miscellaneous Goods & Services Month-on (%) Year-on (%) Weights Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

17 May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

18 Inflation -Urban All Items (%) Year-on Rate 12-Month Average Jan Mar May July Sept Nov 10-Jan Mar May July Sept Nov 11-Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 12-Jan

19 Table 4 Rural Consumer Price Index (Base November 2009 = 100) All Items All Items less Farm Produce. All Items less Farm Produce. and Energy Imported Food Food Food & Non Alcoholic Bev. Alcoholic Beverage. Tobacco and Kola Clothing and Footwear Housing Water, Electricity. Gas and Other Fuel Furnishings & Household Equipment Maintenance. Health. Transport Communication Recreation & Culture. Education Restaurant & Hotels Miscellaneous Goods & Services Month-on (%) Year-on (%) Weights Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

20 May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

21 Jan Mar May July Sept Nov 09-Jan Mar May July Sept Nov 10-Jan Mar May July Sept Nov 11-Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 12-Jan 5. Inflation -Rural All Items (%)

22 Table 5 Combined Urban And Rural State Consumer Price Index (Base Period: November 2009 = 100) Feb-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 State Food All Food All Food All Items Items Items Note: Abia Abuja Adamawa Akwa Ibom Anambra Bauchi Bayelsa Benue Borno Cross River Delta Ebonyi Edo Ekiti Enugu Gombe Imo Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Kogi Kwara Lagos Nassarawa Niger Ogun Ondo Osun Oyo Plateau Rivers Sokoto Taraba Yobe Zamfara Note: Indices may not be used for inter-state price comparison because market baskets differ from state to state

23 Table 5 Composite CPI Component Contribution To Overall Change Code Weight s Chang e % Month-on Contributio n February -12 Yearon 12-Month Average Chang Contributio Change Contributio e % n % n All Items All Items less Farm Produce All Items less Farm Produce & Energy Food Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverage, Tobacco & Kola Clothing & Footwear Housing Water, Electricity. Gas & Other Fuel Furnishings & Household Equipment & Maintenance Health Transport Communication Recreation & Culture Education Restaurant & Hotels Miscellaneous Goods & Services

24 CPI Composite: Contribution: Month-on Change Data Columns Weights Jan-12 Feb-12 % Change Contrib (% p) All Items All Items less Farm Produce All Items less Farm Produce & Energy Food Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverage, Tobacco & Kola Clothing & Footwear Housing Water, Electricity. Gas & Other Fuel Furnishings & Household Equipment & Maintanance Health Transport Communication Recreation & Culture Education Restaurant & Hotels Miscellanous Goods & Sevices

25 CPI Composite: Contribution: Year-on Change Data Columns Weights Feb-11 Feb-12 % Change Contrib (% p) All Items All Items less Farm Produce All Items less Farm Produce & Energy Food Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverage, Tobacco & Kola Clothing & Footwear Housing Water, Electricity. Gas & Other Fuel Furnishings & Household Equipment & Maintanance Health Transport Communication Recreation & Culture Education Restaurant & Hotels Miscellanous Goods & Sevices

26 CPI Composite: Contribution: 12 Month average-on Change Data Columns Weights Feb-11 Feb-12 % Change Contrib (% p) All Items All Items less Farm Produce All Items less Farm Produce & Energy Food Food & Non Alcoholic Beverages Alcoholic Beverage, Tobacco & Kola Clothing & Footwear Housing Water, Electricity. Gas & Other Fuel Furnishings & Household Equipment & Maintanance Health Transport Communication Recreation & Culture Education Restaurant & Hotels Miscellanous Goods & Sevices

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