Focus on the Future. Enabling Growth. Or Just Keeping Up

Transcription

1 Focus on the Future Enabling Growth. Or Just Keeping Up

2 HOUSTON A MODERN/GLOBAL CITY

3 HOUSTON What makes It Tick? Energy Value of US $ Trends in US Economy Medical Center International Trade Technology

4 HOUSTON WEATHERED THE DOWNTURN SUPRISINGLY WELL Upstream Exploration fell off a cliff Downstream Expansion Surged due to low cost of feedstock Construction boom in East Harris County provided a 2-3 year cushion against the Upstream collapse That is mostly over now.

5 Houston Economy Annual Job Growth + 17,656 jobs over last 12 months / March 2017 Source: Texas Workforce Commission, Greater Houston Partnership /

6 OIL PRICES WTI Spot Price, Monthly $150 Cushing OK, WTI Spot Price Monthly $125 $100 $75 $50 $

7 A Contest Of Supply & Demand OPEC vs Free Market Oil Entrepreneurs vs Cartel

8 Houston Economy Annual Job Growth by Sector Information 700 Leisure and Hospitality 9400 Education and Health Svcs Government Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Professional and Business Services 5800 Financial Services Mining and Logging ENERGY Other Services 1000 Construction Manufacturing -200 Source: Texas Workforce Commission -10,000-5, ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

9 Houston Economy Annual Job Growth by Sector Information Leisure and Hospitality Population Driven Job Growth Education and Health Svcs Government Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Professional and Business Services 5800 Financial Services 300 Mining and Logging ENERGY Other Services 1000 Construction Manufacturing -200 Source: Texas Workforce Commission -10,000-5, ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

10 Outlook for Growth Robust Trend Underscores the Need for Additional Infrastructure

11 Ranking of Cities of the Future In the Americas 2017/18 Factors On Which Ranking Based Economic Potential Business Friendliness Human Capital & Lifestyle Cost Effectiveness & Connectivity Source: Financial Times fdi (Foreign Direct Investment) Rankings Large Urban Zones of 4mm+

12 Ranking of Cities of the Future In the Americas 2017/18 Source: Financial Times fdi (Foreign Direct Investment) Rankings Large Urban Zones of 4mm+ Ranking Factors Economic Potential Business Friendliness Human Capital & Lifestyle Cost Effectiveness & Connectivity

13 Houston MSA-Population

14 Houston MSA POPULATION BY AGE 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 9.1% 8.9% 8.4% 9.5% Age 0 to 5 Age 6 to 11 Age 12 to 17 Age 18 to % Age 25 to % 13.1% 11.5% Age 35 to 44 Age 45 to 54 Age 55 to % Age 65 to % 75+ Harris County Median Age=32.1 Ft Bend County Median Age= 35

15 Houston MSA

16 Houston MSA 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% POPULATION BY GENERATION 32.3% 20.6% 18.8% 21.4% 6.9% GenZ Millennial GenX Baby Boomer Traditionals

17 Houston MSA 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% POPULATION BY GENERATION 32.3% 20.6% 18.8% 21.4% 6.9% GenZ Millennial GenX Baby Boomer Traditionals Here they come!

18 Houston MSA

19 Houston MSA

20 HOUSTON HOUSING Takes a Licking and Keeps on Ticking

21 Houston MLS Annual Sales

22 Houston MSA MLS Supply of Listings Source: TRERC, HAR

23 Houston MLS Price Trend $290,000 $230,000

24 Houston New Home Market Highlights MSA Annual New Home Starts - Ranked Rank Market Annual Starts Annual Change % Change 1 Dallas/Ft.Worth 30,235 1, % 2 Houston 25,789-1, % 3 Atlanta 22,176 2, % 4 Central Florida 21,491 2, % 5 Phoenix/Tucson 20,528 1, % 6 Denver/Colorado Springs 19,647 2, % 7 Southern California 18,877 1, % 8 Austin 15,368 2, % 9 Northern California 13, % 10 Charlotte 11, % 11 Raleigh/Durham 11, % 12 Salt Lake City 10,852 1, % 13 San Antonio 10, % 14 Philadelphia Region 10, % 15 Suburban Maryland 9, % Source: Metrostudy /

25 Houston New Home Market Highlights Annual New Home Starts and Closings 26,777 Closings 25,789 Starts Starts dropped 16% from cycle peak But turned up 1Q-17 /

26 Affordability Requirements Lower Land Prices Flexible Development Regulations More density Simpler Floor Plans

27 Demand by Lot Size Last 12 Months Starts

28 62% of all starts On lots 55 and Smaller Demand by Lot Size

29 Price Distribution of Starts on 50' Lots 35.0% 32.5% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 12 Month Starts 25.0% 25.9% 15.0% 12.4% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 3.3% 0.8%

30 Fort Bend County Housing

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32 FBC Geographic Development Pattern

33 FBC Existing Home Sales Trends Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center, Texas A&M

34 Ft. Bend County Re-Sale Homes Price Trends and Months of Inventory Avg Price Stabilizing at Low $300 s Supply of Inventory Rising Steadily, But.. Still Tight Enough to Support Moderately Rising Prices

35 Housing Starts Trends Fort Bend County & Houston MSA SF Demand Projection Thru 2020 = 6,600 7,400 Source: Metrostudy

36 Source: Metrostudy

37 Lot Width Existing Lots vs Future (Planned) Source: Metrostudy

38 Source: Metrostudy

39 52, , , , , ,274 FBC Population 800, , , , , , , ,

40 Average Annual Population Growth Historical & Projected 7,865 9,446 12,903 23,092 25,977 28,263

41 Metro Rankings? Random Thoughts

42 #1 TOP U.S. METRO FOR EXPORTS IN 2015 Department of Commerce - September 2016 LOCAL GOVERNMENT GREEN POWER PURCHASERS Department of Commerce - September 2016 TOP DESTINATION CITY SEVENTH CONSECUTIVE YEAR Department of Commerce - September 2016 HOUSTON TOPS CENSUS LIST ON NEW METRO AREA RESIDENTS ADDING 159,083 RESIDENTS FROM Department of Commerce - September DEAL OF THE YEAR Department of Commerce - September 2016 TOP CITIES FOR COMPETITIVENESS TO ATTRACT INVESTMENT IN CHEMICALS & PLASTICS Department of Commerce - September 2016 TOP CITIES FOR COMPETITIVENESS TO ATTRACT INVESTMENT IN ENERGY Department of Commerce - September 2016 TOP CITIES FOR COMPETITIVENESS TO ATTRACT INVESTMENT IN MACHINERY, EQUIPMENT & CONSTRUCTION Department of Commerce - September 2016 TOP CITIES FOR COMPETITIVENESS TO ATTRACT INVESTMENT IN METALS Department of Commerce - September 2016 TOP CITIES FOR COMPETITIVENESS TO ATTRACT INVESTMENT IN TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS Department of Commerce - September 2016 BEST METRO FOR BUILDING WEALTH Department of Commerce - September 2016 TOP DEALS AND HOT MARKETS "MEGA MARKET OF THE YEAR" Department of Commerce - September 2016 HOUSTON TOPS CENSUS LIST ON NEW METRO AREA RESIDENTS ADDING 156,371 RESIDENTS FROM Department of Commerce - September 2016 FASTEST GROWING COUNTY IN TEXAS BY 2050 HARRIS COUNTY Austin Business Journal (as reported by the Houston Business Journal) March 10, 2015 FASTEST GROWING CITIES IN 2014 The Houston Chronicle (as reported by Forbes) January 27, 2015

43 #1 Cont d MOST FAVORABLE METRO FOR STEM WORKERS [NATIONALLY] WalletHub January 14, 2015 MOST LUXURY HOME SALES IN TEXAS Texas Association of Realtors - January 5, 2015 Interstate and Cross-Border Household Moves [to Houston] Atlas Van Lines' Migration Pattern Study January 1, 2015 LARGEST GOODS-PRODUCING ECONOMY IN THE U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis BEST PLACES TO FIND A NEW JOB SUGAR LAND AND THE WOODLANDS Grow Texas (as reported by Houston Business Journal) 2014 Top Market For Real Estate Investment And Development Expectations For 2015 Houston Chronicle October 22, 2014 Top Destination Cities For College Graduates The New York Times October 20, 2014 U.S. Metro for Exports in 2013 Department of Commerce (as reported by Houston Business Journal) September 2, 2014 LARGEST LIFE - SCIENCES ACCELERATOR - TEXAS MEDICAL CENTER Texas Medical Center - August 2014 TOP U.S. METRO FOR EXPORTS IN 2014 Department of Commerce - August 25, 2015 Most Competitive Metros in America Forbes July 2, 2014 Fastest Growth in Foreign Visitors U.S. Commerce Department (as reported by Houston Business Journal) June 20, 2014 Best Cities for Manufacturing Forbes June 19, 2014 Top Destination City Fifth Consecutive Year U-Haul International April 10, 2014 Best Cities for Young Entrepreneurs CreditDonkey February 19, 2014 Best Cities for Young Couples CreditDonkey - January 22, 2014 Top U.S. Manufacturing Cities Manufacturers' News January 2014

44 Random Thoughts Metro Rankings? Future of Automobiles

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46 Random Thoughts Metro Rankings? Future of Automobiles Cheaper Energy More Efficient Gasoline Vehicles Solar & other renewable sources Electric Autos Autonomous Vehicles & Housing Choices Water Desalination Artificial Intelligence

47 Random Thoughts Metro Rankings? Future of Automobiles Cheaper Energy More Efficient Gasoline Vehicles Solar & other renewable sources Electric Autos Autonomous Vehicles & Housing Choices Water Desalination Artificial Intelligence

48 Fort Bend County How Far & How High Can We Go?

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