Snowbelt to Sunbelt The Migration of America s s Voters

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1 Snowbelt to Sunbelt The Migration of America s s Voters William H. Frey The Brookings Institution & University of Michigan

2 State Projected Growth, Projected Growth, Growth 25% or more Source: William Frey Growth 10% to 24% Less than 10%

3 Projected Regional Growth, Snowbelt Sunbelt

4 Electoral Vote Gains, Source: William Frey Florida 9 Texas 8 Arizona 5 California 2 Nevada 2 North Carolina 2 Georgia 1 Oregon 1 Utah 1 Virginia 1 Washington 1

5 Electoral Vote Losses, New York -6 Iowa -1 Pennsylvania -4 Kentucky -1 Ohio -4 Louisiana -1 Illinois -3 Missouri -1 Massachusetts -2 Nebraska -1 Michigan -2 New Jersey -1 Alabama -1 Rhode Island -1 Connecticut -1 West Virginia -1 Indiana -1 Wisconsin -1

6 Red and Blue States, 2004 Source: William Frey

7 Projected Red State Advantage (assuming constant 2004 state victories) Electoral Votes Red Blue Advantage

8 Snowbelt and Sunbelt: Electoral College Changes Northeast and Midwest South and West

9 Red and Blue State Electoral Vote Changes Snowbelt and Sunbelt, Change Snowbelt Red 66-8 Blue Sunbelt Red Blue 93 4

10 Melting Pot, New Sunbelt, and Heartland States Source: William. Frey New Sunbelt Melting Pot Heartland States

11 Red and Blue Electoral Votes Three America's 2004 Change Heartland Red Blue New Sunbelt Red Blue 21 2 Melting Pot Red Blue 126-8

12 Demographic Components, (Rates per 1000) Immigraton Domestic Migration Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland -5

13 Melting Pot States: Components Immigraton Domestic Migration California New York Texas

14 New Sunbelt: Components Immigraton Domestic Migration Arizona Georgia North Carolina

15 Florida: Components Immigraton Domestic Migration Florida Miami Orlando -5

16 Heartland: Components Immigraton Domestic Migration Michigan Ohio Kansas

17 Migrant Shares from California Utah Oregon Washington Nevada Share Idaho Colorado Arizona Source: William Frey, Brookings Institution

18 Race Composition of Regions Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland 25% 2% 9% 12% 2% 2% 4% 3% 2% 7% 55% 14% 11% 72% 80% White Black Asian Other Hispanic Source: William Frey,

19 Hispanic Concentration Sourcc: William Frey Key Below 12.5% 12.5% % Above 25.0%

20 Black Concentration Source: William Frey Key Below 12.6% 12.6% % Above 25.0%

21 Melting Pot States: Race Change ,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 White Black Asian Hispanic 0-1,000,000-2,000,000 California New York

22 New Sunbelt: Race Change , , , , , ,000 White Black Asian Hispanic 300, , ,000 0 Nevada Georgia

23 Growth: Under Age 35 Source: William Frey GT 7% 1% - 7% LT 1%

24 Growth by Age, Under California Nevada Michigan Source: William Frey,

25 Urban Suburban Growth: Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland 2 0 Major Metro Core Major Metro Periphery Large Metro Medium Metro Small Metro Non Metro

26 Bush 2004 Vote by Urban-Suburban Major Metro Core Major Metro Periphery Large Metro Medium Metro Small Metro Non Metro

27 Fastest Growing Counties, Growth County Inside Metro Area Loudoun Co, VA Washington DC Flagler Co. FL Daytona Beach Douglas Co, CO Denver Rockwall Co, TX Dallas Forsyth Co, GA Atlanta Henry Co, GA Atlanta Kendall Co, IL Chicago Newton Co, GA Atlanta Lincoln Co, SD Sioux Falls, SD Paulding Co, GA Atlanta

28 Red, Blue and Purple States, 2004 Source: William Frey Red Blue Purple

29 Red, Blue and Purple State Electoral Votes, RED BLUE PURPLE Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland

30 Red, Blue, and Purple Counties, 2004 Red Blue Purple Source: William. Frey

31 Population in Red, Blue and Purple Counties, % Melting Pot 36% 28% New Sunbelt 54% 38% Heartland 27% 46% 18% RED BLUE PURPLE 27%

32 Percent Population Change, RED BLUE PURPLE Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland

33 Urban Suburban Profiles 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Red Blue Purple Red Blue Purple Red Blue Purple Small/NonMetro Suburb/Med Metro Major Metro Core Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland

34 New Sunbelt: Components Immigraton Domestic Migration RED BLUE PURPLE

35 Heartland: Components RED BLUE PURPLE Immigraton Domestic Migration

36 Race Profiles 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Hispanic Asia/Othr Black White Red Blue Purple Red Blue Purple Red Blue Purple Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland

37 New Sunbelt Subregions: : Race Profiles 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Hispanic Asia/Othr Black White Red Blue Purple Red Blue Purple Red Blue Purple Southwest Northwest South

38 New Sunbelt Race Growth White Black Asian Hispanic Source: William Frey Red Blue Purple

39 Source: William. Frey US: Race Profile Comparisons, 2004 Total Voters 68% 79% White Black Hispanic Asian Other

40 Hispanics: 2004 Total vs Voter Shares Total Voters 0 New Mexico Texas California Arizona Nevada Colorado Florida

41 Population in Red, Blue and Purple Counties, 2004 Florida California 43% 37% 19% 31% RED BLUE PURPLE 20% 50%

42 Florida: 2004 Red, Blue, and Purple Cos Red Blue Purple Source: William. Frey

43 Florida: Components Immigraton Domestic Migration RED BLUE PURPLE

44 California: 2004 Red, Blue, and Purple Cos. Red Blue Purple Source: William. Frey

45 California: Components RED BLUE PURPLE Immigraton Domestic Migration

46 Percent Voting for Bush: 2000 vs Queens, NY Wake Co. NC Cahoun Co. MI

47 Demographic Components, Immigraton Domestic Migration Natural Increase Queens, NY Wake Co. NC Cahoun Co. MI

48 Race-Ethnic Profiles Queens, NY 20% Wake Co. NC 20% 32% 6% 22% 67% 7% 26% Cahoun Co. MI 11% 4% 3% White Black Asia/Othr Hispanic Source: William Frey 82%

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