GLOBAL MRO FORECAST MRO ASIA CONFERENCE NOVEMBER 2014

Transcription

1 GLOBAL MRO FORECAST MRO ASIA CONFERENCE NOVEMBER 2014 UNCERTAINTY AND RISK... NAVIGATING THROUGH THE UNPREDICTABLE

2 A LOOK BACK NAVIGATING THROUGH THE UNPREDICTABLE 2

3 IN 2004, TEAMSAI PREDICTED MRO IN 2014 WOULD EXCEED $56B Total Jet Aircraft MRO Forecast (2014 $USB) $83.3 $56.5 $54.7 $ Forecast 2014 Forecast Note: All values in 2014 $US BUT WOULD ANYONE SAY IT HAS BEEN AN EASY DECADE? 3

4 WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR MRO PLANNING? risks and uncertainty abound Forecast Uncertainties Natural Disaster Risks MRO PLANNING Geo- Political Risks MRO Uncertainties TeamSAI 11/04/2014

5 DON T GET COMPLACENT GEO-POLITICAL RISKS CONTINUE GEO-POLITICAL currency fluctuations slowdown in China short term short to medium term Threatens airlines in emerging markets such as India and Indonesia Ticket prices Ability to purchase oil and parts Chinese economic growth accounts for 24% of net global growth emerging market currency fluctuations slowdown in China? Ticket prices US$-denominated oil Non-local spare parts China as a share of net economic growth ¼ 5

6 MRO DON T GET COMPLACENT MRO RISKS ABOUND TeamSAI 6

7 FLEET AND MRO OUTLOOK NAVIGATING THROUGH THE UNPREDICTABLE 7

8 MODEL ENHANCEMENTS FOR 2014 year-by-year fleet forecast year-by-year MRO forecast improved airframe modifications model improved component MRO model improved line maintenance model implemented engine shop visit model and improved interval driver methodology improved labor/material differentiation across all models 8

9 GLOBAL FLEET OUTLOOK - COMMERCIAL AIRLINE SECTOR Growth Rate 2024 Market Share 0.8% 24% 2.1% 18% 4.4% 17% 7.3% 12% 5.1% 8% 5.6% 6% 5.8% 6% 5.1% 5% 11.4% 3% 9

10 GLOBALLY, THE MRO GROWTH OUTLOOK IS HEALTHY $58B- $87B Global Market Size +4.2% CAGR CAGR % SHARE Airframe 4.1% 20% Engine 4.1% 38% Component 4.4% 22% Line 4.1% 20% 10

11 MRO REGIONAL MARKET SHARES CHANGE DRAMATICALLY BY 2024 ME/Africa ME will double by 2024, driving majority of growth ME/Africa Asia Asia will be the largest MRO market by 2024 Asia Americas Europe Large-scale fleet replacement in NA translates to flat MRO LA&C market drives growth EU to have moderate MRO growth, at 2.9% Americas Europe 11

12 ASIAN FLEET GROWTH WILL BE SOLID pax traffic 2014F (IATA) 5.8% RPK current fleet 2014 (Ascend Online) 6,031 fleet CAGR +6.0% (TeamSAI) CAGR deliveries (TeamSAI) 5,800+ retirements (TeamSAI) 1, % 3.6% 4.5% 5.5% 6.7% 12

13 ASIAN MRO OUTLOOK $15B- $30B Market Size +6.8% CAGR CAGR % SHARE Airframe 7.3% 19% Engine 6.5% 40% Component 7.7% 21% Line 6.2% 20% 13

14 ASIAN MRO BY VINTAGE & MODEL TYPE Consider less-mx-intensive HMV engine MRO honeymoon component MRO honeymoon 1970s s share Impact to MRO 1990s, 2000s, 2010s share Asia s Top 10 Aircraft Families in terms of MRO Spend A320 CEO & NEO 27% A320 CEO & NEO 30% NG & MAX 24% 737 NG & MAX 27% % 777 6% 4 A330 7% 787 5% Classics 5% A330 5% 6 ATR 42/72 4% A350 4% % ATR 42/72 4% % COMAC C919 2% 9 Embraer 170/175/190/195 & E2 2% ARJ % 10 DHC-8-100/200/300 2% CSeries 2% 14

15 DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY AND RISK NAVIGATING THROUGH THE UNPREDICTABLE 15

16 RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES IN FLEET AND MRO FORECAST HIGH: higher deliveries/lower retirements moderate interest rates stable economic growth in emerging regions moderate oil prices LOW: lower deliveries/higher retirements higher interest rates low economic growth 16

17 POSITIONING THE BUSINESS EFFECTIVELY Methods to Achieve customer focus excellent execution financial discipline broad vision distinctive reputation Leading Qualities good bottom line strong balance sheet effective scenario/ contingency planning EXCELLENCE BENEFITS PROFITABILITY PROFITABILITY SURVIVABILITY VERSATILITY PREPAREDNESS 17

18 MROS MUST ANALYZE, DEFINE, AND DELIVER VALUE TO CUSTOMERS know your customer know your proposition know your market compelling presentation clear business case execution Deliver.. clear strategy, positioning pricing Define.. market attractiveness competitor analysis Analyze.. market potential 18

19 THANK YOU Dave Marcontell President & COO TeamSAI, Inc. (404) NAVIGATING THROUGH THE UNPREDICTABLE 19