2014 Colorado River Annual Operating Plan Colorado River Management Work Group (CRMWG) Final Consultation September 5, 2013

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1 2014 Colorado River Annual Operating Plan Colorado River Management Work Group (CRMWG) Final Consultation September 5, 2013

2 2014 Colorado River AOP Final Consultation Meeting Welcome and Introductions Terry Fulp / Larry Walkoviak Upper Basin Hydrology and Operations Katrina Grantz Lower Basin Hydrology and Operations Dan Bunk 2014 AOP Review Process Steve Hvinden / Dave Trueman Review of Draft 2014 AOP CRMWG Conclusion and Wrap-up 2

3 Upper Colorado River Basin Hydrology and Operations 3

4 Upper Basin Current Status 76% full 67% full Upper Basin Storage As of 8/29/2013 Water Year 2013 Projected Unregulated Inflow 1 Reservoir Volume (kaf) Percent of Average 2 Fontenelle Flaming Gorge Blue Mesa % full 43% full 51% full Navajo Powell Based on CBRFC forecast issued August 1, Percentages and percent of average based on period of record from

5 5

6 2013 Annual Operating Plan (retrospective) Lake Powell Unregulated Inflow Projections WY2013 Scenario 2013 AOP WY 2013 Most Probable WY 2013 Developed August 2013 Minimum Probable Most Probable Maximum Probable Developed August maf (46 %) maf 8.85 maf (82 %) maf (148 %) (40 %) 1 Percentages and percent of average based on period of record from

7 Lake Powell Unregulated Inflow Scenarios As presented in Annual Operating Plan Scenario Minimum Probable Most Probable Maximum Probable 2013 AOP WY 2013 Developed August maf (46 %*) 8.85 maf (82 %) maf (148 %) 2014 AOP WY 2014 Developed August maf (46 %) 8.32 maf (77 %) maf (143 %) * Percent of average water year unregulated inflow (10.83 maf) 7

8 End of Calendar Year 2013 Projections Powell Operating Tier Determination Run for Water Year Based on an 8.23 maf release pattern from Lake Powell in Water Year maf Lake Powell 3,700 1,219.6 Lake Mead maf 7.0 maf 3,648 1, maf 1,105 1,107.4 feet 12.2 maf 9.5 maf 3, maf in storage 1,075 47% of capacity 9.6 maf 3,573.7 feet 5.9 maf 9.4 maf in storage 3,525 1, maf 39% of capacity Not to Scale 0.0 maf 3, Dead Storage maf 2.5 maf 0.0 maf Dead Storage 8 1 WY 2014 unregulated inflow into Lake Powell is based on the CBRFC outlook dated 8/1/13.

9 9 Lake Powell Operational Table

10 End of Calendar Year 2013 Projections August Month Study Most Probable Inflow Scenario 1 Based on a 7.48 maf release pattern from Lake Powell in Water Year maf Lake Powell 3,700 1,219.6 Lake Mead maf 17.0 maf 3,648 1, maf 1,105 1,103.1 feet 12.2 maf 9.5 maf 3,578.3 feet 3, maf in storage 1,075 46% of capacity 9.6 maf 9.9 maf in storage 5.9 maf 41% of capacity 3,525 1, maf Not to Scale 0.0 maf 3, Dead Storage maf 2.5 maf 0.0 maf Dead Storage 10 1 WY 2014 unregulated inflow into Lake Powell is based on the CBRFC outlook dated 8/1/13.

11 11

12 12

13 Interim Guidelines Operations

14 End of Water Year 2014 Projections August Month Study Most Probable Inflow Scenario 1 Based on a 7.48 maf release pattern from Lake Powell in Water Year maf Lake Powell 3,700 1,219.6 Lake Mead maf 17.0 maf 3,648 1, maf Not to Scale 9.5 maf 3,582.5 feet 3,575 1,075 1,082.7 feet 9.6 maf 10.2 maf in storage 42% of capacity 0.0 maf 3, Dead Storage maf 1, maf 10.2 maf in storage 39% of capacity 5.9 maf 3,525 1, maf 7.48 maf 2.5 maf 0.0 maf Dead Storage 14 1 WY 2014 unregulated inflow into Lake Powell is based on the CBRFC outlook dated 8/1/13.

15 3, , ,573.7 w/ 8.23 pattern 3, ,573.4 w/ 8.23 pattern 15

16 Projected Lake Powell Operational Tiers Based on August Month Study Inflow Scenarios Powell Inflow Scenario Probable Minimum Most Probable Probable Maximum WY 2014 Jan 1, 2014 Projection Mid-Elevation Release Tier Elevation ft 7.48 maf release WY 2015 Jan 1, 2015 Projections Mid-Elevation Relase Tier Elevation ft 7.48 maf release Mid-Elevation Relase Tier Elevation ft 7.48 maf release Upper Elevation Balancing Tier w/ Projected April shift to Equalization Elevation ft maf release 16

17 Unit Number 1 2 Glen Canyon Power Plant Planned Unit Outage Schedule for Water Year 2013 Oct 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Jan 2013 Feb 2013 Mar 2013 Apr 2013 May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep Units Available Capacity (cfs) Capacity (kaf/month) ,200 14,900 19,500 21,800 21,600 14,800 18,600 14,700 18,000 17,900 17,900 15,200 21,700 18, Max (kaf) Most (kaf) Min (kaf) Based on Aug 2013 Min/Most/Max probable 24-Month Study 5 6 (maintenance updated ) 17

18 18 Unit Number Units Available Capacity (cfs) Capacity (kaf/month) Glen Canyon Power Plant Provisional Unit Outage Schedule for Water Year 2014 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014 Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 Jul 2014 Aug Sep ,100 17,800 17,800 17,800 12,800 17,800 17,800 17,900 17,900 14,600 17,800 17, Max (kaf) Most (kaf) Min (kaf) Based on Aug 2013 Min/MostMax probable 24-Month Study 2 Total release during a HFE = Capacity +15,000 cfs bypass ( e.g., Nov 2013 Total Possible Release = ~32,800 cfs) , ,300 (maintenance updated )

19 Lower Colorado River Basin Hydrology and Operations 19

20 Lake Powell & Lake Mead Operational Table Operational Tier Determinations for Water Year/Calendar Year , /1/14 Projection 1 1, /1/14 Projection 20 1 Lake Powell s projected elevation is based on an 8.23 maf annual release pattern from in water year 2014.

21 21

22 Projected Lake Mead Operational Tiers Based on August Month Study Inflow Scenarios Powell Inflow Scenario Probable Minimum Most Probable Probable Maximum CY 2014 Jan 1, 2014 Projection Normal - ICS Surplus Condition Elevation 1, ft CY 2015 Jan 1, 2015 Projections Normal - ICS Surplus Condition Elevation 1, ft Normal - ICS Surplus Condition Elevation 1, ft Normal - ICS Surplus Condition Elevation 1, ft 22

23 Lower Basin Side Inflows WY/CY ,2 Intervening Flow from Glen Canyon to Hoover Dam Month in WY/CY Year Average Intervening Flow (KAF) Observed Intervening Flow (KAF) Observed Intervening Flow (% of Average) Difference From 5-Year Average (KAF) October % -1 November % +16 December % -49 January % -25 H I S T O R Y February % -26 March % -8 April % -43 May % -36 June % -32 July % +60 August % +18 F U T U R E September October November December WY 2013 Totals % -125 CY 2013 Totals % Values were computed with the LC s gain-loss model for the most recent 24-month study. 2 Percents of average are based on the 5-year mean from

24 24 Lower Basin Inflows - July/August 2013

25 Lower Basin Inflows - July/August 2013 Flooding in Las Vegas Valley --Photos courtesy of KLAS, Las Vegas Colorado River near Piute Wash (mile 253) in Yuma --LCR photos by Jeff L. Sanderson 25

26 YAO Operations Update Brock and Senator Wash storage year-to-date 1 Brock Senator Wash 90,600 AF 63,070 AF Excess Flows to Mexico year-to-date 2 46,570 AF 26 1 Provisional values through August 31, Provisional value through September 2, 2013

27 2014 Colorado River AOP Final Consultation Meeting Welcome and Introductions Terry Fulp / Larry Walkoviak Upper Basin Hydrology and Operations Katrina Grantz Lower Basin Hydrology and Operations Dan Bunk 2014 AOP Review Process Steve Hvinden / Dave Trueman Review of Draft 2014 AOP CRMWG Conclusion and Wrap-up 27

28 Colorado River Annual Operating Plan Colorado River Management Work Group (CRMWG) Final Consultation September 5, 2013

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