NEW ZEALAND REGIONAL TOURISM FORECASTS

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1 NEW ZEALAND REGIONAL TOURISM FORECASTS QUEENSTOWN RTO AUGUST 21 Tourism Strategy Group Ministry of Economic Development

2 Contents Introduction 1 1. Summary for Queenstown RTO 2 2. Visits to Queenstown RTO 5 3. Visits to Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller 6 4. Visitor Nights in Queenstown RTO 7 5. Visitor Nights in Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller 8 6. Visitor Expenditure in Queenstown RTO 9 Appendix Visitor Origins, RTOs Areas, and Underlying Sample Sizes 1 This report is one of a series of reports produced within the annual tourism forecasting programme. The main report titles within the 21 programme are: New Zealand Tourism Forecasts Summary Document New Zealand Regional Tourism Forecasts (These are individual reports for Regional Tourism Organisation (RTO) areas) These forecast reports, as well as pivot tables, are available for download at All of the forecasting reports are prepared for the Tourism Strategy Group, MED, by Covec Limited. Tourism Strategy Group Ministry of Economic Development PO Box 564 Wellington New Zealand Ph: Fax: info@tourism.govt.nz Web: Covec Limited Ph: Fax: info@covec.co.nz Web: Image Credits: Rangitata Rafts Fern Rebecca Davis,

3 Introduction This report contains tourism forecasts for the Queenstown RTO area that can be used to support local tourism investment, planning and development. The annual forecasts cover the period and provide estimates of future visits and visitor nights segmented by traveller origin, purpose of travel and type of travel. Forecasts of tourism expenditure are also included in this year s programme, although data constraints prevent detailed segmentation beyond total international and domestic spend. The expenditure figures take inflation into account and include GST. Key exclusions are expenditure on international airfares, as well as some government and business expenditure. More information can be found in electronic format in the regional pivot tables which can be downloaded from The regional pivot tables allow users to view historical and forecast data at the regional level in both tabular and graphical form. Base Data: The forecasts in this report are based on historical data derived from the International Visitor Survey (IVS) and the Domestic Travel Survey (DTS). These data have been smoothed to reduce the volatility caused by small sample sizes (see Table A2 in the Appendix for a summary of sample sizes in 29). The smoothing process involves combining data across multiple time periods in small sample areas to identify long-term trends and relativities. The result is much smoother historical data that preserve regional differences and represent more realistic growth trends. Also, the IVS and DTS data have been adjusted to include travel by children under 15 years of age who fall outside the scope of the surveys. In addition, some government and business travel is not captured in the DTS because it is primarily a household survey. Methodology: The regional forecasts have been developed by modelling and extrapolating historical relationships between the origins of travellers, their main purpose of travel, and their propensities to visit various RTO areas. The model used to forecast international visitor activity also takes port of entry into account as this has a major influence on regional travel patterns. A full methodology document can be downloaded from Definitions of Key Tourism Measures Day Trip Overnight Trip Day Visit Overnight Visit Visitor Nights Origin Domestic International A trip by a person of at least 4km (one way) Not applicable. within New Zealand but outside their usual environment, completed within the same day. A trip by a person resulting in one or more A trip by a person that results in one or more nights spent away from home within New nights being spent in New Zealand. Zealand. The number of people visiting a destination within the RTO for one hour or more without staying a night. Day visits can be generated by people on overnight trips and day trips. The number of visits to a destination within the RTO that result in a stay of at least one night. The number of visitor nights spent in destinations within the RTO in all forms of accommodation. Regional council areas (see full list in Australia, United States, Japan, South Korea, Appendix). China, United Kingdom, Germany, Rest of World. 1

4 1. Summary for Queenstown RTO Total Visits Total visits by travellers to Queenstown RTO are forecast to rise from million in 29 to million in an increase of 12.8% (242,) or 1.7% p.a. International visits are expected to increase from 98, in 29 to million in 216, representing growth of 253, or 25.8%. The share of total visits generated by international visitors is expected to increase from 51.9% to 57.9%. Domestic visits are expected to decrease from 98, in 29 to 897, in 216, representing a contraction of 11, or 1.2%. The share of total visits generated by domestic visitors is expected to decrease from 48.1% to 42.1%. Figure 1: Visits to Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller (s) Domestic International f 5 1, 1,5 Figure 2: Visitor Nights in Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller (s) Domestic International f 1, 2, 3, 4, Total Visitor Nights Total visitor nights in Queenstown RTO are forecast to rise from million in 29 to 4.37 million in an increase of 16.8% (619,) or 2.2% p.a. International visitor nights are expected to increase from million in 29 to million in 216, representing growth of 635, or 25.5%. The share of total visitor nights generated by international visitors is expected to increase from 67.6% to 72.6%. Domestic visitor nights are expected to decrease from million in 29 to million in 216, representing a contraction of 17, or 1.4%. The share of total visitor nights generated by domestic visitors is expected to decrease from 32.4% to 27.4%. Total Visitor Expenditure Figure 3: Visitor Expenditure in Queenstown RTO by Origin Total expenditure by visitors to Queenstown RTO is of Traveller ($NZm) forecast to increase from $874 million in 29 to $1.123 billion in growth of 28.6% ($25 million) or 3.7% p.a f International visitor expenditure is expected to increase Domestic from $689 million in 29 to $92 million in 216, representing growth of $231 million or 33.6%. The share of total expenditure generated by international visitors is expected to increase from 78.8% to 81.9%. International Domestic visitor expenditure is expected to increase from $185 million in 29 to $23 million in 216, representing growth of $18 million or 9.9%. The share of total visitor expenditure generated by domestic visitors is expected to decrease from 21.2% to 18.1% , 2

5 Figure 4: Shares of Total Visits to Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller (% of all visits) Domestic International f Figure 5: Shares of Total Visitor Nights in Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller (% of all visitor nights) Domestic International f

6 Table 1: Summary of Tourism Forecasts for Queenstown RTO Market Calendar Year Visits (s) Overnight Day Total Nights (s) Av. Nights per Visit Expenditure ($NZm) , , , , , Domestic , f , f , f , f , f , f , f , , , , , , International , f ,9 2, f ,8 2, f ,97 2, f ,133 2, f ,167 2, f ,21 3, f ,232 3, , ,791 3, , ,79 3, , ,835 3, , ,84 3, , ,822 3, Total 29 1, ,887 3, f 1, ,914 3, f 1, ,984 4, f 1, ,997 4, f 1, ,32 4, ,21 214f 1, ,65 4, ,55 215f 1, ,98 4, ,9 216f 1, ,129 4, ,123 Growth Domestic Change Total -1.2% -1.3% -1.2% -1.4% -.2% 9.9% Annual -.2% -.2% -.2% -.2%.% 1.4% International Change Total 26.% 25.3% 25.8% 25.5% -.4% 33.6% Annual 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% -.1% 4.2% Total Change Total 16.2% 7.4% 12.8% 16.8%.5% 28.6% Annual 2.2% 1.% 1.7% 2.2%.1% 3.7% Note: The visits and nights figures are rounded to the nearest thousand, and the expenditure figures are rounded to the nearest million. The percentage changes are calculated using unrounded figures, and may differ slightly from those calculated using rounded figures. 4

7 2. Visits to Queenstown RTO Total Visits In 29 international and domestic travellers made a total of million visits to Queenstown RTO. International overnight travellers accounted for 74, (39.2%) of these visits, domestic overnight travellers 413, (21.9%), international day travellers 24, (12.7%) and domestic day travellers 495, (26.2%). By 216 total visits to Queenstown RTO are forecast to increase by 242, (12.8%) to million, with international overnight visits up 192, (26.%) to 932,, domestic overnight visits down 5, (1.2%) to 48,, international day visits up 61, (25.3%) to 31, and domestic day visits down 6, (1.3%) to 488,. Figure 6: Visits to Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller and Trip Type (s) 1, International Overnight Domestic Overnight International Day Domestic Day f 11f 12f 13f 14f 15f 16f Figure 7: Shares of International Visits to Queenstown RTO by Purpose of Trip in 29 (%) Overnight Day Holiday VFR Business Education Other International Visits In 29 holiday travellers generated 85.4% of international overnight visits to Queenstown RTO, travellers visiting friends and relatives (VFR) 8.2%, business travellers 2.1%, education travellers 2.1% and other travellers 2.2%. This distribution is not expected to change greatly over the forecast period. Holiday travellers generated 86.6% of international day visits to Queenstown RTO in 29, VFR travellers 9.8%, business travellers 1.5%, education travellers.9% and other travellers 1.3%. No significant change in the purpose composition is expected between 29 and 216. Domestic Visits In 29 holiday travellers generated 62.5% of domestic overnight visits to Queenstown RTO, VFR travellers 21.1%, business travellers 14.4%, education travellers.8% and other travellers 1.2%. The business share is expected to increase to 16.7% by 216, while the VFR share is expected to fall to 19.8%. Holiday travellers generated 6.1% of domestic day visits to Queenstown RTO in 29, VFR travellers 23.3%, business travellers 15.1%, education travellers.4% and other travellers 1.2%. The business share is expected to increase to 17.5% by 216, while the VFR share is expected to fall to 21.9%. Figure 8: Shares of Domestic Visits to Queenstown RTO by Purpose of Trip in 29 (%) Overnight Day Holiday VFR Business Education Other 5

8 3. Visits to Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller International Visits International visits to Queenstown RTO are expected to increase from 98, in 29 to million in 216, representing growth of 253, or 25.8%. Travellers from Australia accounted for the largest share of international visits to Queenstown RTO in 29 at 43.1%, followed by the United Kingdom at 12.3% and the United States at 9.%. In 216 the largest share of international visits to Queenstown RTO is expected to come from Australia at 43.%, followed by the United Kingdom at 1.4% and the United States at 9.7%. Figure 9: Shares of International Visits to Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller (%) f AU UK JP SK CH US GE RW Figure 1: Shares of Domestic Visits to Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller (%) f ND AK WK BP GS HB TA MW WG MB NL WC CA OT SD Domestic Visits Domestic visits to Queenstown RTO are expected to decrease from 98, in 29 to 897, in 216, representing a contraction of 11, or 1.2%. Travellers from Otago accounted for the largest share of domestic visits to Queenstown RTO in 29 at 3.7%, followed by Southland at 21.4% and Canterbury at 16.4%. In 216 the largest share of domestic visits to Queenstown RTO is expected to come from Otago at 31.2%, followed by Southland at 2.5% and Canterbury at 16.8%. Table 2a: Shares of International Visits to Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller International Shares Origin f Change Australia 43.1% 43.% -.1% United Kingdom 12.3% 1.4% -1.9% Japan 4.% 3.7% -.4% South Korea 1.9% 3.4% 1.5% China 1.5% 2.1%.6% United States 9.% 9.7%.7% Germany 4.1% 3.9% -.2% Rest of World 24.1% 23.8% -.2% All Countries 1.% 1.%.% Note: The change column describes the percentage point difference, not the actual percentage change Table 2b: Shares of Domestic Visits to Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller Domestic Shares Origin f Change Northland.8%.8%.% Auckland 15.2% 15.6%.4% Waikato 2.9% 3.%.1% Bay of Plenty 1.2% 1.2%.% Gisborne.1%.1%.% Hawke's Bay.5%.5%.% Taranaki.8%.7% -.1% Manawatu-Wanganui 1.5% 1.4%.% Wellington 5.6% 5.4% -.2% Marlborough.7%.7%.% Nelson-Tasman 1.7% 1.7%.% West Coast.4%.4%.% Canterbury 16.4% 16.8%.3% Otago 3.7% 31.2%.5% Southland 21.4% 2.5% -.9% New Zealand 1.% 1.%.% 6

9 4. Visitor Nights in Queenstown RTO Total Visitor Nights In 29 international and domestic travellers spent a total of million visitor nights in Queenstown RTO. International travellers accounted for million (67.6%) of these nights and domestic travellers the remaining million (32.4%). By 216 total visitor nights in Queenstown RTO are forecast to increase by 619, (16.8%) to 4.37 million, with international visitor nights up 635, (25.5%) to million and domestic visitor nights down 17, (1.4%) to million. Figure 11: Visitor Nights in Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller (s) 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 International Domestic f 11f 12f 13f 14f 15f 16f Figure 12: Shares of International Visitor Nights in Queenstown RTO by Purpose of Trip (%) f Holiday VFR Business Education Other International Visitor Nights In 29 holiday travellers generated 79.4% of international visitor nights spent in Queenstown RTO, travellers visiting friends and relatives (VFR) 9.4%, business travellers 2.6%, education travellers 3.1% and other travellers 5.6%. This distribution is not expected to change greatly over the forecast period. Domestic Visitor Nights In 29 holiday travellers generated 68.% of domestic visitor nights spent in Queenstown RTO, VFR travellers 18.9%, business travellers 11.6%, education travellers.6% and other travellers 1.%. No significant change in the purpose composition is expected between 29 and 216. Figure 13: Shares of Domestic Visitor Nights in Queenstown RTO by Purpose of Trip (%) f Holiday VFR Business Education Other 7

5. Visitor Nights in Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller International Visitor Nights International visitor nights in Queenstown RTO are expected to increase from 2.493 million in 29 to 3.

10 5. Visitor Nights in Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller International Visitor Nights International visitor nights in Queenstown RTO are expected to increase from million in 29 to million in 216, representing growth of 635, or 25.5%. Travellers from Australia accounted for the largest share of international visitor nights in Queenstown RTO in 29 at 38.7%, followed by the United Kingdom at 15.6% and the United States at 8.5%. In 216 the largest share of international visitor nights in Queenstown RTO is expected to come from Australia at 39.8%, followed by the United Kingdom at 13.5% and the United States at 9.3%. Figure 14: Shares of International Visitor Nights in Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller (%) f AU UK JP SK CH US GE RW Figure 15: Shares of Domestic Visitor Nights in Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller (%) f ND AK WK BP GS HB TA MW WG MB NL WC CA OT SD Domestic Visitor Nights Domestic visitor nights in Queenstown RTO are expected to decrease from million in 29 to million in 216, representing a contraction of 17, or 1.4%. Travellers from Auckland accounted for the largest share of domestic visitor nights in Queenstown RTO in 29 at 23.4%, followed by Canterbury at 19.4% and Otago at 19.1%. In 216 the largest share of domestic visitor nights in Queenstown RTO is expected to come from Auckland at 24.1%, followed by Canterbury at 19.6% and Otago at 19.2%. Table 3a: Shares of International Visitor Nights in Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller International Shares Origin f Change Australia 38.7% 39.8% 1.1% United Kingdom 15.6% 13.5% -2.1% Japan 4.1% 4.1%.% South Korea 2.5% 2.8%.3% China.9% 1.3%.4% United States 8.5% 9.3%.8% Germany 4.3% 4.1% -.2% Rest of World 25.4% 25.% -.4% All Countries 1.% 1.%.% Note: The change column describes the percentage point difference, not the actual percentage change. Table 3b: Shares of Domestic Visitor Nights in Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller Domestic Shares Origin f Change Northland.6%.6%.% Auckland 23.4% 24.1%.7% Waikato 4.3% 4.4%.1% Bay of Plenty 3.3% 3.3%.% Gisborne.2%.2%.% Hawke's Bay.6%.6%.% Taranaki 1.8% 1.6% -.2% Manawatu-Wanganui 1.8% 1.8% -.1% Wellington 9.2% 9.% -.1% Marlborough.8%.8%.% Nelson-Tasman 2.2% 2.2%.% West Coast.6%.5%.% Canterbury 19.4% 19.6%.2% Otago 19.1% 19.2%.1% Southland 12.8% 12.2% -.7% New Zealand 1.% 1.%.% 8

11 6. Visitor Expenditure in Queenstown RTO Total Expenditure In 29 international and domestic visitors spent a total of $874 million in Queenstown RTO. International visitors accounted for $689 million (78.8%) of this expenditure and domestic visitors the remaining $185 million (21.2%). By 216 total visitor expenditure in Queenstown RTO is forecast to increase by $25 million (28.6%) to $1.123 billion, with international expenditure up $231 million (33.6%) to $92 million and domestic expenditure up $18 million (9.9%) to $23 million. The share of national visitor expenditure captured by Queenstown RTO is forecast to increase from 5.79% in 29 to 6.22% in 216. Figure 16: Visitor Expenditure in Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller ($NZm) 1, International Domestic f 11f 12f 13f 14f 15f 16f Table 4: Visitor Expenditure in Queenstown RTO by Origin of Traveller ($NZm) Calendar Year International Domestic Total Share of NZ International Domestic Total % 79.% 21.% 1.% % 78.8% 21.2% 1.% % 78.7% 21.3% 1.% % 79.6% 2.4% 1.% % 79.% 21.% 1.% % 78.8% 21.2% 1.% 21f % 79.5% 2.5% 1.% 211f % 8.7% 19.3% 1.% 212f % 8.6% 19.4% 1.% 213f , % 81.% 19.% 1.% 214f , % 81.3% 18.7% 1.% 215f ,9 6.19% 81.6% 18.4% 1.% 216f , % 81.9% 18.1% 1.% Growth Total 33.6% 9.9% 28.6% Annual 4.2% 1.4% 3.7% Share of Queenstown RTO 9

12 Appendix Table A1: Origins of Visitors and Abbreviations Domestic Origins (Regional Council Areas) International Origins Northland Region (ND) Nelson-Tasman Region (NL) Australia (AU) Auckland Region (AK) Marlborough Region (MB) United Kingdom (UK) Waikato Region (WK) West Coast Region (WC) Japan (JP) Bay of Plenty Region (BP) Canterbury Region (CA) South Korea (SK) Gisborne Region (GS) Otago Region (OT) China (CH) Hawke s Bay Region (HB) Southland Region (SD) United States (US) Taranaki Region (TA) Germany (GE) Manawatu-Wanganui Region (MW) Rest of the World (RW) Wellington Region (WG) Table A2: RTOs and Constituent Territorial Authorities Northland RTO Far North Di Wanganui RTO Wanganui Di Kaipara Di Wairarapa RTO Carterton Di Whangarei Di Masterton Di Auckland RTO Auckland City South Wairarapa Di Franklin Di Kapiti-Horowhenua RTO Horowhenua Di Manukau City Kapiti Coast Di North Shore City Wellington RTO Lower Hutt City Papakura Di Porirua City Rodney Di Upper Hutt City Waitakere City Wellington City Coromandel RTO Hauraki Di Marlborough RTO Marlborough Di Thames-Coromandel Di Nelson RTO Nelson City Waikato RTO Hamilton City Tasman Di Matamata-Piako Di Canterbury RTO Ashburton Di Otorohanga Di Chatham Islands Territory South Waikato Di Christchurch City Waikato Di Hurunui Di Waipa Di Kaikoura Di Waitomo Di Mackenzie Di* Bay of Plenty RTO Tauranga City Selwyn Di Western Bay of Plenty Di Timaru Di* Rotorua RTO Rotorua Di Waimakariri Di Lake Taupo RTO Taupo Di Waimate Di Kawerau-Whakatane*** Kawerau Di Timaru RTO Timaru Di* Whakatane Di MacKenzie RTO Mackenzie Di* Gisborne RTO Gisborne Di Waitaki RTO Waitaki Di Opotiki Di West Coast RTO Buller Di Taranaki RTO New Plymouth Di Grey Di South Taranaki Di Westland Di Stratford Di Lake Wanaka RTO Queenstown-Lakes Di** Hawke's Bay RTO Central Hawke's Bay Di Queenstown RTO Queenstown-Lakes Di** Hastings Di Central Otago RTO Central Otago Di Napier City Dunedin RTO Dunedin City Wairoa Di Clutha*** Clutha Di Ruapehu RTO Ruapehu Di Fiordland RTO Southland Di** Manawatu RTO Manawatu Di Southland RTO Gore Di Palmerston North City Invercargill City Rangitikei Di Southland Di** Tararua Di *Also counted as part of Canterbury RTO; **Divided into two RTOs; ***Currently not a funded RTO; Di = District 1

13 Figure A1: Map of New Zealand RTO Areas 11

14 Table A2: Sample Sizes Underlying Regional Estimates in 29 International Visits Domestic Visits Destination Overnight Day Overnight Day Auckland RTO 5,86 1,483 1,13 92 Bay of Plenty RTO Canterbury RTO 3,937 1, Central Otago RTO Timaru RTO Coromandel RTO Dunedin RTO Gisborne RTO Fiordland RTO Hawke's Bay RTO Kapiti-Horowhenua RTO Lake Taupo RTO Lake Wanaka RTO Mackenzie RTO Manawatu RTO Marlborough RTO Nelson RTO 1, Northland RTO 1, Queenstown RTO 1, Rotorua RTO 1, Ruapehu RTO Southland RTO Taranaki RTO Waikato RTO Wairarapa RTO Waitaki RTO Wanganui RTO Wellington RTO 1, West Coast RTO 1,956 1, New Zealand 27,489 12,947 7,522 7,116 The figures in the table above describe the number of International Visitor Survey (IVS) and Domestic Travel Survey (DTS) respondents that reported visiting each RTO in 29. The number of visitations is equivalent to the sample size for a region e.g. the 29 estimate of international overnight visits to Auckland is based on a sample of 5,86 responses. The IVS is based on a sample of 5,2 departing international visitors each year, and the DTS is based on 15, telephone interviews each year. 12

NEW ZEALAND REGIONAL TOURISM FORECASTS

NEW ZEALAND REGIONAL TOURISM FORECASTS 21-216 NELSON RTO AUGUST 21 www.tourismresearch.govt.nz Tourism Strategy Group Ministry of Economic Development Contents Introduction 1 1. Summary for Nelson RTO