UK Office Market Outlook. UK Office Research H1 2015

Transcription

1 UK Office Market Outlook UK Office Research H1 2015

2 UK outlook Solid economic growth Domestic economic momentum remains robust. While GDP growth of 0.4% in Q1 was below the 2014 pace it picked up in Q2 to 0.7%, led by strong growth from the services sector. Looking ahead, with rising real wages, sustained momentum in retail sales and business confidence, growth should continue at a brisk pace across a broad regional base in H2. Rapid growth in employment has been a particularly welcome feature of recent performance. Office employment across the UK grew by 4.3% in 2014, the strongest performance on record, and hiring intentions remain positive. Growth in take-up Robust business confidence and hiring are providing a supportive backdrop for the office market, with take-up in H1 building on the strong recovery seen in Across the Core 8 regional markets, take-up reached 3.8 million sq ft in H1, 19% up on H After this strong start to the year, take-up is on track to exceed last year s total of 7.3 million sq ft, well ahead of the 10 year average of 6.6 million sq ft. Manchester and Birmingham dominated activity during H1, accounting for 677,000 sq ft (18%) and 650,000 sq ft (17%) of take-up respectively. In Q2 alone, take-up in Birmingham reached 521,000 sq ft, the strongest quarterly take-up in Birmingham since 2002, led by HSBC s off-plan acquisition of over 200,000 sq ft at Arena Central. Leeds also saw strong take-up with 301,000 sq ft let, up 26% on H Professional services dominated take-up across the Core 8, comprising 23% of H1 take-up. Within this, law firms have been particularly active. There is 9.5 million sq ft of live demand active across the Core 8 markets, with the professional and public administration sectors accounting for over 50% of the total by floorspace. Ben Burston Head of UK Office Research Supply tight Core 8 supply totals 19.5 million sq ft and the average overall rate stands at 8.2%, down from 9.1% over the year. Grade A supply remains constrained with a rate of just 2.4% on average, with Leeds and Cardiff the lowest at 1.5% and 1.3% respectively. The lack of available new supply is motivating occupiers to pursue pre-let opportunities, with total pre-leasing jumping sharply in H to 837,000 sq ft across 14 transactions, having been only 138,000 sq ft across five transactions for the full year in Partly aided by off-site pre-leasing, the development pipeline is now responding million sq ft is under construction speculatively across the Core 8 in 58 schemes, of which 59% by floorspace is new build, the remainder significant refurbishments. Manchester accounts for the greatest volume of speculative development activity (17%). Rental growth continues Prime rental growth continues across the regional markets with headline rents rising by 4.3% on average across the Core 8 over the past year, led by Manchester and Leeds where rents have jumped to 33 per sq ft and per sq ft respectively. Rent free periods continue to fall, enhancing growth in net effective rents, which have jumped by 8.8% on average over the past 12 months. Reflecting on the solid outlook for demand and tight supply, we expect this growth to continue, with headline rental growth across the UK expected to average 2.9% per year over the period Office employment across the UK grew by 4.3% in 2014, the strongest performance on record, and hiring intentions remain positive. Core 8: Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Leeds, Manchester and Western Corridor 2 UK Office Market Report H1 2015

3 Core 8 take-up sq ft 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 On track to exceed last year s total of 7.3m sq ft 3, H Core 8 active demand Q million sq ft 9.6million sq ft Take-up market by share H (sq ft) Cardiff 162,000 Bristol 266,000 Edinburgh 408,000 Manchester 677,000 Glasgow 240,000 Leeds 301,000 Birmingham 650,000 Western Corridor 1,084,000 Grade A Rents 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Leeds Birmingham Edinburgh Manchester Q Average weighted prime rent psf Average weighted Y-o-Y prime rent psf +4.3% +5.3% +6.0% Western Corridor +5.0% Manchester +6.5% Birmingham Leeds Core 8 speculative development activity under construction (sq ft) H H UK office rental clock slowing Rental growth Rents falling 1.60m 2.66m Western Corridor 1.67m Regional 2.70m London WE & London City Belfast, Southampton Manchester Nottingham Edinburgh, West London Glasgow Bristol & Thames Valley Rental growth accelerating Rents bottoming out Cardiff Birmingham Leeds, Newcastle, Exeter UK Office Market Report H

4 Investment outlook Yield compression drives value growth Investors continue to respond positively to the strength of occupational demand and the outlook for rental growth. Wider macroeconomic trends also remain supportive of property investment, notably the sustained low interest rate environment and accommodative credit conditions. The weight of money targeting the regions continues to place inward pressure on prime yields, which now range from 5%-5.25% for the largest regional cities, down basis points over the past 12 months. The pace of recent compression has been most rapid in Edinburgh and Glasgow, where yields have now shifted inward to catch up with the established trend in other cities following a period of reduced trading, reflecting the uncertainly of the referendum in H Sustained investment momentum H saw a continuation of the strong investor demand for regional offices that characterised In the year-to-date, transaction volumes across the Core 8 have hit 1.9 billion, a significant increase on the 1.5 billion traded in H The Western Corridor market has been most active, with 936 million traded, followed by Manchester and Birmingham with 245 million and 223 million respectively. Volumes ( millions) 2014 H Domestic and International Investors H UK 74% Other 14% USA 5% Global 4% Switzerland 2% Germany 1% 240 Glasgow Edinburgh 90 Prime yields 8.0% Thames Valley Manchester Edinburgh 1,020 Manchester Leeds % 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 60 Cardiff Birmingham Bristol 176 1,066 Western Corridor % 4.0% UK Office Market Report H1 2015

5 Key activity New Square Bedfont Lakes Heathrow Price: 167m Vendor: Aberdeen Asset Management NIY: 5.46% Mark Wilson Director Capital Markets (National) JLL advised Aberdeen Asset Management on this high profile disposal to M&G. Bedfont Lakes comprises 7 headquarter office buildings and a central amenity block totalling 375,972 sq ft. The property is multi-let to 8 tenants providing a WAULT of 5.1 years and produces a rental income of 9,643,441 p.a. 3 pre-lets in Leeds city centre Jeff Pearey Director Leeds Office Agency At Central Square JLL pre-let 50,000 sq ft to PwC and at MEPC s Wellington Place we pre-let almost 20,000 sq ft to Bradford based Equifax. JLL also acted for Addleshaw Goddard, acquiring 51,000 sq ft at Sovereign Square and kick starting the development of the next phase. These schemes are all set to change the face of the Leeds office market providing better quality Grade A stock at leading rent levels. Aurora Bothwell Street Glasgow Price: 71.2m Vendor: M&G NIY: 6.2% Ross Burns Director Capital Markets (Glasgow) JLL advised M&G on this off-market acquisition. Aurora is one of the finest office buildings in Glasgow. The building has a WAULT of 2 years, providing significant opportunities for asset management, when Grade A levels are at only 3% with significant downward pressure and headline rents in excess of 29 per sq ft. Soapworks Salford Quays Tenant: TalkTalk Size: 106,000 sq ft Lease: 15 year lease Chris Mulcahy Director Manchester Office Agency JLL advised the Carlyle Group on the largest deal in Salford Quays since the BBC announced its relocation to Media City in TalkTalk will consolidate its entire North West presence into Salford Quays and follows the Home Office taking a 54,000 sq ft lease earlier in the year. Phases one and two at Soapworks total approximately 230,000 sq ft, while phase three can bring forward up to 160,000 sq ft. UK Office Market Report H

6 Birmingham Market overview The Birmingham office market has seen an impressive second quarter of the year, with over 500,000 sq ft transacted. HSBC taking over 200,000 sq ft at Arena Central was the principal deal over the quarter, but overall the market was active. The professional sector witnessed a flurry of deals with Jacobs Engineering leasing almost 20,000 sq ft in Colmore Square, as a direct result of the company s involvement in the HS2 scheme. The market continues to be characterised by a diminishing availability of good quality available space, with the Grade A rate standing at 1.8%. There are a number of schemes in the pipeline but with some time until delivery date. Consequently, it is expected that more pre-let agreements will be secured before the end of the year, as occupiers look to acquire the best quality space. Prime rents were unchanged over the quarter after moving up to 30 per sq ft earlier in the year. With demand for good quality space holding up, it is anticipated that prime rents will remain under pressure for the rest of the year. Moreover, incentives have hardened in Q2 and now stand at 27 months on a 10 year term. After a strong start to the year, investment volumes were slightly more subdued in the second quarter of the year, with 51 million of space transacted. As a result, prime yields were unchanged over the quarter, at 5%. However, there is a significant volume of transactions under offer or on the market. This will further stimulate the market towards the end of the year and drive volumes upwards to 1 billion. Yields remain under pressure and with unsatisfied demand from multiple investors further hardening is expected before the end of the year. Take-up H sq ft Take-up 5 year average Supply and rates (year-on-year change) Vacancy supply contracting year-on-year Prime rents Overall 11% down from 11.8% psf 2015 headline rents stable after Q1 growth Grade A 1.8% falling from 2.6% City centre boundary revised in Q psf 2015 net effectives increase by 3.3% Investment volumes Jonathan Carmalt Leasing Ben Kelly Investment H million H million Strong demand continues 6 UK Office Market Report H1 2015

7 Bristol Market overview Market activity picked up in Bristol during Q2 with 159,840 sq ft taken-up; bringing the mid-year total to 266,000 sq ft and on track to exceed the 5 year average. The respectable level of take-up hides the fact that the largest deal was 12,764 sq ft and all but 11 of the 38 deals were below 5,000 sq ft. Grade A takeup was modest during H1 with just below 50,000 sq ft transacted across 8 deals. However, the second half of 2015 is expected to see more significant Grade A activity with circa 200,000 sq ft of requirements active and expected to commit this year including Babcock, Foot Anstey, AXA and EDF Energy. The current lack of new Grade A space in the city centre continues to be a real pinch point with a rate of just 1.4% and around a third of this space under offer. While all speculative space currently under construction is due to complete by end-2015, close to 600,000 sq ft of new and refurbished space could possibly start on-site on a speculative basis over the next 12 months. Headline prime rents remained unchanged during Q2 although incentives moved in to 18 months rent free on a 10 year term. The better quality second hand market continues to see exceptional demand as reflected by rental growth of 10%-30%. Bristol s city centre investment market saw its strongest quarter since Q with million transacted. Activity was dominated by the off-market sale of Templeback ( 58.5 million) and the sale of 66 Queen Square ( 32.7 million) for just 4.94%. The strength of the Bristol market has seen prime yields harden by 25 basis points to 5%. Take-up H sq ft Take-up 5 year average Supply and rates (year-on-year change) Vacancy lowest Grade A of the Big 6 Prime rents psf headline rents stable after Q1 growth Overall 6.4% down from 8.7% Grade A 1.4% falling from 1.6% psf better quality second hand rents increase by up to 30% Investment volumes Ian Wills Leasing Oliver Paine Investment H million H million 2015 will exceed previous high (2011) UK Office Market Report H

8 Cardiff Market overview After a quiet start to 2015 activity levels picked up in Cardiff during Q2 with a strong quarter s take-up boosted by the 40,821 sq ft letting to Deloitte at Six Park Street. The banking & finance and professional services sectors dominated activity over H1, both accounting for 25% of take-up by floorspace. The legal sector also continues to be active in Cardiff. There remains to be confidence in the market with a number of high profile requirements including Legal & General, MotoNovo Finance, Slater and Gordon and Geldards, along with the eagerly awaited 165,000 sq ft BBC pre-let. The volume of total supply remained stable during Q2 as newly available stock coming on to the market balanced out the healthy level of take-up. The shortage of Grade A space continues and is not being fully addressed by the pipeline. The 232,000 sq ft under construction and available on a speculative basis is all due to complete in Q and beyond this there is nothing firmly committed to start on site speculatively. The market needs to see some major refurbishments get underway to plug this gap and meet demand. Prime headline rents in Cardiff city centre remain at 22 per sq ft but this level is expected to be exceeded during the latter half of Incentives are typically 18 months rent free on a 10 year term. There continues to be strong demand for investment product in Cardiff with the city centre market transacting 42.1 million during Q2; the key sale being Helmont House for 34.6 million (6.08%). As stock becomes available yields are expected to harden. The sale of some super-prime assets is also expected during 2015 where net initial yields of sub 5% are likely to be achieved. Take-up H sq ft Take-up 5 year average Supply and rates (year-on-year change) Vacancy stable supply reflects occupier churn releasing space Prime rents H Overall 8.5% unchanged year-on-year psf headline rents stable H Grade A 1.3% psf growth in prime rents forecast Investment volumes Rhydian Morris Leasing Justin Millett Investment million H million 2015 volumes will far exceed UK Office Market Report H1 2015

9 Edinburgh Market overview The Edinburgh office market has continued its steady start to the year with almost 200,000 sq ft transacted during Q2. The largest deal over the quarter was Capita leasing the whole of 145 Morrison Street, around 27,000 sq ft. The market remains stable with occupier demand steady, but a lack of stock is holding back activity. There is an expectation that there may be further occupier movement in the market later in the year. The overall rate declined further to 5.7% in Q2, a steady fall from the 6.5% seen a year ago. Furthermore, the Grade A rate is currently at 2.5%. Although 328,000 sq ft of new build space is under construction, 163,000 sq ft is pre-let or under offer and, given the shortage of Grade A space, the remainder is expected to see strong tenant demand. Pre-let agreements are expected to become more prominent over the next year or so. Prime rents have held firm in Q2 at 30 per sq ft. With supply remaining tight a further uplift in rental values is expected before the end of the year. The lack of space is causing occupiers to forward plan space moves much earlier; therefore pressure on prime rents may be sustained over the next year. Take-up H sq ft Take-up 5 year average Supply and rates (year-on-year change) Grade A expected to reduce during H2 Overall 5.7% down from 6.5% Grade A 2.5% stable year-on-year Investment volumes were subdued in Q2 with 33 million transacted over the quarter, though a number of deals are under offer. However, investor sentiment remains strong and as a result, our opinion of yields hardened over the quarter. Prime yields in Edinburgh are now at 5.25%, a hardening of 50 basis points compared to the same period in Speculative space under construction Pre-lets absorb new space under construction Q ,000 sq ft all available 328,000 sq ft 50% available Prime yields Hardened by 50 basis points over 12 months Cameron Stott Leasing Colin Finlayson Investment Q % Q % 5.25% UK Office Market Report H

10 Glasgow Market overview Following the strong start to the year, the Glasgow office market has been quieter in Q2. Occupier demand has held firm but there is a general lack of supply in the market at present. Less than 100,000 sq ft was transacted over the quarter, with the letting of 27,500 sq ft in Cuprum, Cadogan Square to Teleperformance, the highlight of Q2. The Glasgow market remains characterised by a shortage of good quality space, with Grade A at just 3.8%. The development pipeline is not due to see significant space delivered to the market for around 3 years; therefore a supply gap has emerged and pre-let activity is expected to feature in the interim. This has also resulted in occupiers positioning themselves for future opportunities and a handful of landlords undertaking significant refurbishments. Prime rents have held firm over the quarter to remain at per sq ft. Incentives were also unchanged over the quarter at 24 months rent free on a 10 year term. Rents are likely to remain under pressure over the remainder of the year as prime space is scarce, with further rises expected. Prime yields hardened over the quarter and now stand at 5.25%, inward movement of 50 basis points over the last 12 months. Investment volumes were slightly more subdued than in the first quarter of the year, with 46 million of space transacted. The key transaction over the quarter was the acquisition of Granite House by the Ambassador Group for 26 million. Take-up sq ft Take-up 5 year average Supply and rates (year-on-year change) Grade A space will be quickly absorbed Significant reduction in speculative activity Overall 10.5% up from 10.3% Speculative space under construction Q ,000 sq ft Grade A 3.8% increasing from 2.5% 170,000 sq ft Prime yields Hardened by 50 basis points over 12 months Mike Buchan Leasing Ross Burns Investment Q % Q % 5.25% 10 UK Office Market Report H1 2015

11 Leeds Market overview The Leeds office market has witnessed a strong second quarter of the year with over 213,000 sq ft transacted. Both PwC (Central Square) and Addleshaw Goddard (3 Sovereign Square) concluded the most significant deals seen in Q2 of around 50,000 sq ft each, highlighting the robust level of activity seen over the quarter. As a result, rents for good quality space within the city centre have retained their upward momentum to now stand at per sq ft. Supply levels continued to move down over the quarter with the overall rate now standing at 4.4%, a decline from the 4.7% seen in Q1. The trend of pre-lets continued in the second quarter, as occupiers requiring larger space requirements are restricted by the current scarcity of good quality space. An encouraging amount of space is under construction although the majority is not due to complete until 2016, thus retaining the pressure on the supply of good quality space over the remainder of the year. After holding firm in the first quarter of the year, prime rents moved up in Q2 to per sq ft, a new high in this cycle. The combination of a shortage of good quality space and steady occupier demand has resulted in prime rents increasing. Furthermore, incentives have also hardened over the quarter, with 18 months rent free on a 10 year term becoming the norm. Overall investment volumes were subdued over the quarter, with 9.3 million of transactions concluded in Q2. The key deal over the quarter was the purchase of 15/16 Park Row by the F&C UK Property Fund at 5.48%. Yields were unchanged over the quarter and have remained at 5.25% for almost 12 months. Take-up sq ft Take-up 5 year average Supply and rates (year-on-year change) Grade A space remains scarce Overall 4.4% down from 6.3% Speculative space under construction Encouraging amount of space under construction Q ,000 sq ft Grade A 1.5% decreasing from 1.8% 481,000 sq ft Prime rents Jeff Pearey Leasing Mathew Atkinson Investment psf headline rents moving up 6% year-on-year growth UK Office Market Report H

12 Manchester Market overview The strong start to 2015 in the Manchester office market has continued into the second quarter of the year. With almost 360,000 sq ft transacted, momentum has remained strong with occupier demand robust. The largest deals in the city centre were Gazprom (pre-let of two floors within 6 First Street) and Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer (Arndale House) who leased over 40,000 sq ft respectively. In the wider Manchester city region, TalkTalk leasing 106,000 sq ft at Soapworks in Salford Quays was the most notable deal over the quarter. Following the revision in Q1, the market boundary reflects the growth of the city, with an overall rate that has declined from Q1 and now stands at 7.7%. This now includes schemes such as English Cities Fund's (ECf) New Bailey and Ask s 101 Embankment. However, prime space remains scarce within the city centre, with the Grade A rate unchanged at 1.9%. However, the speculative development pipeline is robust with 875,000 sq ft currently under construction in the city centre. Occupier demand has held firm and with an ongoing scarcity of good quality space, this has resulted in prime rents rising over the quarter. City centre rents now stand at 33 per sq ft, following a second consecutive quarterly rise. Furthermore, incentives have also hardened and are typically around months rent free on a 10 year term. Take-up 1,400 1,200 1, sq ft Take-up 5 year average Supply and rates (year-on-year change) City Centre Prime rents prime space sought after Overall 7.7% up from 7.5% Grade A 1.9% increasing from 1.2% City centre boundary revised in Q Investor demand for good quality space has remained steady over the quarter and prime yields continue to be under pressure. Investment volumes were slightly subdued in Q2 with 85 million transacted over the quarter. However, volumes are expected to rise over the remainder of the year and as a result, yields are also anticipated to harden further psf strong growth in H % year-on-year growth Chris Mulcahy Leasing James Porteous Investment Development pipeline Pipeline reacts to undersupply of prime space Q ,000 sq ft 875,000 sq ft 12 UK Office Market Report H1 2015

13 Western Corridor Market overview The Western Corridor has seen a solid first half of the year with over 1 million sq ft transacted. Occupational demand has held firm in Q2, although deals are taking time to conclude. In the second quarter, it was the Thames Valley that delivered the deals, with Acenden leasing almost 50,000 sq ft in Maidenhead Office Park. The TMT sector continued to be the most active, accounting for 42% of take up by floorspace. With 1 million sq ft of space under offer and well over 4 million sq ft of named active demand, we expect take-up during 2015 to substantially exceed the 2 million sq ft transacted in Supply levels continue to contract with less than 10.5 million sq ft currently available throughout the Western Corridor. Conversion to alternative use and leasing take-up is stripping supply downwards. The contrast between Thames Valley locations and West London continues with Grade A rates at 7.3% and 2.5% respectively. The speculative development pipeline has grown over the past year or so, with most due to complete in 2016, with little thereafter. Therefore, the relative scarcity of Grade A space is ongoing. Prime rents in the Western Corridor have risen by just over 5% year-on-year and now stand at per sq ft. With demand holding firm and a lack of good quality space coupled with a constrained development pipeline, the expectation is for further rental growth over the remainder of the year. JLL predicts the Western Corridor to perform steadily and experience average annual growth of 4.2%, with Bracknell expected to lead the way. The investment market in the Western Corridor rebounded strongly in Q2, with 787 million transacted. Demand for good quality assets within the region continues apace, with a number of individual and portfolio deals occurring over the quarter. Yields in both the Western Corridor and the Thames Valley were unchanged in Q2 after both hardened by 25 basis points in Q1. Take-up 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, H sq ft Take-up 5 year average Supply and rates (year-on-year change) Vacancy Prime rents overall supply continues downward trend H Overall 11.7% down from 13.1% psf consistent growth Grade A 4.8% up from 4.2% 5.0 % year-on-year growth Investment volumes James Finnis Leasing Angus Minford Investment H million H million Western Corridor volumes show strong uplift UK Office Market Report H

14 Prime office rents Q-o-Q Y-o-Y Edinburgh % +1.7% Glasgow % +3.5% GLASGOW EDINBURGH Leeds % +6.0% Manchester % +6.5% MANCHESTER LEEDS Birmingham % +5.3% Cardiff Bristol % 0.0% +0.0% +3.6% CARDIFF BIRMINGHAM BRISTOL WESTERN CORRIDOR CENTRAL LONDON West End City Western Corridor % +11.9% +4.0% +8.3% +0.9% +5.0% 14 UK Office Market Report H1 2015

15 Contacts BUSINESS CONTACTS Jeremy Richards Head of National Offices Bristol +44 (0) Chris Ireland Chairman and Lead Director UK Capital Markets +44 (0) Research Contacts Ben Burston UK Research +44 (0) Vicky Heath UK Research +44(0) Barrie David UK Research +44 (0) Leasing Contacts Jonathan Carmalt Director, Birmingham +44 (0) Ian Wills Director, Bristol +44 (0) Rhydian Morris Director, Cardiff +44 (0) Cameron Stott Director, Edinburgh +44 (0) Andrew Pearce Director, Exeter +44 (0) Mike Buchan Director, Glasgow +44 (0) Jeff Pearey Director, Leeds +44 (0) Chris Mulcahy Director, Manchester +44 (0) Matthew Smith Director, Nottingham +44 (0) David McGougan Director, Southampton +44 (0) James Finnis Director, Western Corridor +44 (0) UK Office Market Report H

16 Investment Contacts Ben Kelly Director, Birmingham +44 (0) Colin Finlayson Director, Edinburgh +44 (0) James Porteous Director, Manchester +44 (0) Oliver Paine Director, Bristol +44 (0) Ross Burns Director, Glasgow +44 (0) Angus Minford Director, Western Corridor +44 (0) Justin Millett Director, Cardiff +44 (0) Mathew Atkinson Director, Leeds +44 (0) jll.co.uk 2015 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. The information contained in this document is proprietary to Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be used solely for the purposes of evaluating this proposal. All such documentation and information remains the property of Jones Lang LaSalle and shall be kept confidential. Reproduction of any part of this document is authorized only to the extent necessary for its evaluation. It is not to be shown to any third party without the prior written authorization of Jones Lang LaSalle. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy thereof.