North America Inbound Tourism Outlook. September 2018

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Caitlin Collins
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1 North America Inbound Tourism Outlook September

2 Top Global Markets 2022 Global cities: total domestic and inbound arrivals Top 25 markets, 2022 Global cities: international arrivals Top 25 markets, 2022 Chongqing (CN) Hong Kong, China (HK) Shanghai (CN) Bangkok (TH) (MX) Macao, China (MO) Karachi (PK) Dubai (AE) Beijing (CN) London (UK) Wuhan, Hubei (CN) Kuala Lumpur (MY) Tokyo (JP) Singapore (SG) Hangzhou, Zhejiang (CN) (US) Bangkok (TH) Istanbul (TR) Chengdu, Sichuan (CN) Tokyo (JP) Shenyang, Liaoning (CN) Shenzhen (CN) Hong Kong, China (HK) 2017 Antalya (TR) 2017 (US) 2022 Paris (FR) 2022 Nanjing, Jiangsu (CN) Kuwait City (KW) Acapulco (MX) Rome (IT) (US) Tunis (TN) Hokkaido (JP) Barcelona (ES) Ningbo, Zhejiang (CN) Guangzhou, Qingdao, Shandong (CN) (US) Lahore (PK) Osaka (JP) Tehran (IR) Shanghai (CN) Suzhou, Jiangsu (CN) Amsterdam (NL) London (UK) Prague (CZ) Changsha, Hunan (CN) (US) Kuala Lumpur (MY) (MX) 0 50, , , , ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Markets shown above are the world's 25 largest city destinations ranked according to expected total arrivals in The left-hand chart includes both domestic and international arrivals. The right-hand chart shows international arrivals only. Both charts show each city destination's size in 2022 as well as its size in

3 North America in Perspective In 2001, North America received 14% of total global visitors. However, despite growth in arrivals its share has since diminished. Growth in recent years has been hampered by the strength of the US dollar for long-haul travel to the US. The rate of economic growth in Asia and household wealth accumulation has created demand that did not previously exist, with the emergence of a new travel class in emerging markets such as China. Much of the new tourism demand has been for short-haul destinations, and notably within Asia. However, some North America has gained some demand from these emerging markets and stymied its loss of share to a degree. Many of the largest city destinations in the world for international travel are within North America and are set to enjoy continued growth in demand, even if this involves some loss of global market share. The charts opposite show total international arrivals to country destinations at a regional level. For example, Europe includes total international arrivals at all European country destinations included within the Global Country Travel service. The top chart shows the total number of international arrivals growing over time since 2001 (with some decline following the global financial crisis in ) and the proportion of total arrivals owing to each region of the world. The bottom chart gives a snapshot based on 2017 arrivals, by which point North America's share of total arrivals was 10%. North America in the context of global arrivals No. of arrivals (000s) 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 Middle East & Africa Latin America North America Europe Asia Pacific Share of international travel by region No. of arrivals (000s), 2017 % share of global arrivals, 2017 Asia Pacific Europe North America Latin America Middle East & Africa 10% 5% 11% 24% 50% 3

4 Top North American Markets, Arrivals 2017 vs North American cities: total arrivals North American cities: total arrivals Top 10 markets, 2022 Houston, TX Guadalajara Guadalajara Domestic Arrivals International Arrivals Domestic International Acapulco Acapulco North American cities: international arrivals Houston, TX San Francisco, North American cities: international arrivals Top 10 markets, 2022 Houston, TX San Francisco,

5 Top North American Markets, Expenditure 2017 vs North American cities: total expenditure North American cities: total expenditure Top 10 markets, 2022 San Francisco, Domestic International San Francisco, Domestic International US$bns US$bns North American cities: international expenditure San Francisco, US$bns North American cities: international expenditure Top 10 markets, 2022 San Francisco, US$bns 5

6 North American Source Markets 2022 Top city destinations, foreign travel from USA Edmonton Montréal Calgary Tijuana Top city destinations, foreign travel from Canada Seattle, WA Top city destinations, foreign travel from Mexico San Antonio, TX Monterrey Guadalajara San Francisco, Houston, TX Vancouver Toronto Tampa-St. Pete., FL Detroit, MI Phoenix, AZ Riverside, Austin, TX Phoenix, AZ Dallas, TX El Paso, TX Expected arrivals growth, top destinations from USA Vancouver Toronto Tijuana Calgary Monterrey Edmonton Montréal Guadalajara 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% GR, Expected arrivals growth, top destinations from Canada Tampa-St. Pete., FL Detroit, MI Phoenix, AZ Seattle, WA -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% GR, Expected arrivals growth, top destinations from Mexico San Antonio, TX Austin, TX El Paso, TX Riverside, Dallas, TX Houston, TX San Francisco, Phoenix, AZ 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% GR,

7 Largest Asia-Pacific Source Markets 2022 Top city destinations, foreign travel from China Top city destinations, foreign travel from Japan Top city destinations, foreign travel from S.K. San Jose, Washington DC Seattle, WA Riverside, San Francisco, Washingt on DC San Francisco, Riverside, Seattle, WA Atlanta, GA Washington San DC Francisco, Expected arrivals growth, top destinations from China Seattle, WA Riverside, San Francisco, 0% 5% 10% GR, Expected arrivals growth, top destinations from Japan San Jose, San Francisco, 0% 1% 2% 3% GR, Expected arrivals growth, top destinations from S.Korea Seattle, WA San Francisco, Atlanta, GA Riverside, 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% GR,

8 Largest EU Source Markets 2022 Top city destinations for foreign travel from UK Top city destinations for foreign travel from Germany Top city destinations for foreign travel from France Tampa-St. Pete., FL San Diego, Boston, MA Washington DC San Francisco, Detroit, MI San Diego, Washington DC San Francisco, Montréal Washington DC San Francisco, Expected arrivals growth for top destinations from UK San Francisco, Tampa-St. Pete., FL San Diego, 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% GR, Expected arrivals growth for top destinations from Germany San Francisco, San Diego, Detroit, MI 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% GR, Expected arrivals growth for top destinations from France Montréal San Francisco, 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% GR,

9 Importance of Tourism Tourism can play an important role in the context of economic growth. Tourism can provide jobs and improve the wealth of an area and many cities are keen to develop tourism in order to become richer and to improve the quality of life for their inhabitants. North American cities: foreign arrivals growth vs GDP growth In cities above the line tourism leads economic growth and below tourism lags economic growth Arrivals GR, The chart opposite shows the full complement of North American city destinations included within the Global City Travel service (however, not all are labelled) The cities labelled are outlying significant city destiantions. It charts historical tourism growth (in the form of overnight arrivals) against GDP growth over a 5- year period spanning , with growth given as the average rate per annum over that period. 15% 10% 5% MSY ORL CHI TOR LAS CUN DLX Above the dotted line are those city destinations where tourim growth outpaced economic growth over the period (tourism leading economies). Below the dotted line are those city destinations where tourism growth fell short of economic growth over the period (tourism lagging economies). 0% CLE MRE LAX BOS VAN The majority of North American city destinations had tourism leading economies over the period. -5% -10% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Source: Oxford Economics GDP GR, Legend BOS - CHI - CLE - Cleveland, OH CUN - DLX - Dallas,TX LAX - MRE - Montreal MSY - New Orleans, LA ORL - TOR - Toronto 9

10 Future Importance of Tourism The chart opposite shows the full complement of North American city destinations included within the Global City Travel service (however, not all are labelled). The cities labelled are outlying significant city destiantions. It charts expected tourism growth (in the form of overnight arrivals) against GDP growth over a 5- year period spanning , with growth given as the average rate per annum over that period. Above the dotted line are those city destinations where tourim growth is expected to outpace economic growth over the period (tourism leading economies). Below the dotted line are those city destinations where tourism growth is expected to fall short of economic growth over the period (tourism lagging economies). The vast majority of North American city destinations are expected to have tourism leading economies over the period. North American cities: foreign arrivals growth vs GDP growth In cities above the line tourism leads economic growth and below tourism lags economic growth Arrivals GR, % 4% 3% 2% CLE CHI MRE MSY LAX LAS BOS CUN ORL DLX 1% 0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% Source: Oxford Economics Legend BOS - CHI - CLE - Cleveland, OH CUN - DLX - Dallas,TX LAX - MRE - Montreal MSY - New Orleans, LA ORL - TOR - Toronto GDP GR,

11 Market Size versus Market Growth The charts opposite shows the top North American city destinations (as included within the Global City Travel service) in terms of international arrivals in 2017 (top) and expected international arrivals in 2022 (bottom). Arrivals are plotted relative to average per annum growth over the periods and respectively. Mexico city was the largest North American city destination in 2017 and is expected to remain as the largest to However, some faster growth is expected in the forecast period compared to the historical period (0.4% vs. 2.5%). Acapulco was the second largest North American city destination in 2017 but is expected to be overtaken by New York by Tourism growth to New York is expected to be somewhat slower in the forecast period ( ) compared to the historical growth period ( ). North American cities: international arrivals vs historical growth Top 25 markets ranked by international arrivals, 2017 GR, % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% SAT PHX ORL TOR HKA CUN 1% AZI PHL LAX 0% LAS % C Legend CUN - DET - Detroit, MI HKA - Houston, TX LAS - LAX - MEX - C - New york, ORL - PHL - Philadelphia, PA PHX - Phoenix, AZ TOR - Toronto North American cities: international arrivals vs forecast growth Top 25 markets ranked by international arrivals, 2022 GR, % 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% PHX SAT RAL AZI TTE HKA LAX CUN GDL C LAS MEX Legend CUN - DET - Detroit, MI HKA - Houston, TX LAS - LAX - MEX - C - New york, ORL - PHL - Philadelphia, PA PHX - Phoenix, AZ TOR - Toronto WAS - 0.0%

12 About Us Tourism Economics Tourism Economics is an Oxford Economics company with a singular focus on quantitative analysis of the travel industry. By combining rigorous modeling with industry knowledge, Tourism Economics develops custom market strategies, industry forecasts, policy analysis and economic impact studies. Our parent company, Oxford Economics, is one of the world's leading providers of economic analysis, forecasts and consulting advice. Founded in 1981 as a joint venture with Oxford University's business college, Oxford Economics enjoys a reputation for high quality, quatitative analysis and evidencebased advice. Contacts North American Clients: Adam Sacks (adam@tourismeconomics.com), or; Aran Ryan (aran.ryan@tourismeconomics.com) Non-North American Clients: David Goodger (dgoodger@oxfordeconomics.com), or; Helen McDermott (hmcdermott@oxfordeconomics.com) 12

Nordic Tourism Outlook. March 2018

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