Air passenger travel projection models. Haobo Wang, Ministry of Transport

Transcription

1 Air passenger travel projection models Haobo Wang, Ministry of Transport

2 Contents Background Origin and destination based air passenger projections Leg-based air passenger projections Summary and implications 2

3 3 Background

4 Air travel projection models we have developed Domestic O&D based regional air passenger flows (Number of domestic air passengers from one region to each of other regions based on their true origins and destinations) Aircraft-km travelled and fuel use/ghg emissions from domestic air travel International O&D based air passenger flows (Number of international air passengers departing from each region in NZ based on their true origins and destinations) International departures by NZ residents Overseas visitor arrivals (MBIE tourism forecasting) Leg based (airport) air passenger departures (Number of both domestic and international air passenger departures from each region (or airports) based on non-stop flights) The domestic O&D based regional air passenger flow model has been developed by Tim Hazledine (the University of Auckland); the other four models are developed by MoT 4

5 Base case and four alternative scenarios for Transport Outlook Base case Stats NZ s medium population projection, Treasury s GDP projection, MBIE s tourist projection, and other assumptions (e.g. biofuel uptake) Scenario A: Close to the Action Has the same moderate population and GDP growth projection as the Base case, but assumes a more dense development pattern in Auckland Scenario B: Metro Connected Has the same total population and GDP growth as the Base case, but assumes a more dispersed population, with Auckland growing slower and the other regions growing faster Scenario C: Golden Triangle Has faster population and GDP growth than the Base case, with additional population growth focused on Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty. Scenario in Town and Country Has the same faster population and GDP growth as the Golden Triangle scenario, but assumes population growth is more dispersed. 5

6 O&D based departures are different from those leg-based Origin and destination based air passengers Based on the true origins and destinations of their air travel regardless of the actual routes they have taken e.g. (1) Whangarei Auckland Wellington (2) Whangarei Wellington A passenger is only counted once in his/her trip Domestic legs in international trips will not be included in leg-based domestic departures Leg-based (airport) passenger departures A leg is defined as a non-stop flight The data reported by airports, CAA and Statistics NZ are all leg based e.g. (1) Whangarei Auckland Wellington only one O&D based air passenger, but two leg-based departures 6

7 7 Origin and destination based air passenger projections

8 Domestic O&D based air passenger flow model Econometric (gravity type) model Based on passengers true origins and destinations Explanatory variables used: GDP (both origin and destination) Population (both origin and destination) Number of overseas visitors Distance Real airfares Variables for the quality of air services (Ferry, Switchback, Number of nonstop flights) 8

9 Domestic O&D based air passenger growth by 2043 Base case 9 Note: These are origin and destination based, will not match with airport data.

10 Domestic O&D based air passengers (million) from Auckland, Base case 10 Note: These are origin and destination based, will not match with airport data.

11 International O&D based air passenger growth by 2043, Base case We estimate the growth of international departures by NZ residents and that by overseas visitors separately 11 Note: These are origin and destination based, will not match with airport data.

12 12 Leg based air passenger projections

13 Leg-based air passenger departure model Using the results of the two O&D based models to estimate the growth rates for different types of leg (non-stop flights) Adjust the modelling results of domestic air passenger departures against the data from NZ airports The modelled national totals of domestic departures are consistent well with CAA s data (the difference is less than 1%) Adjust the modelling results of international air passenger departures against Stats NZ s data Estimate the growth in international transit passengers (for Auckland Airport) separately 13

14 Leg-based domestic departures (million), Base case 14

15 Leg-based domestic departures (million) in 2043, alternative scenarios 15

16 Leg-based international departures (million), Base case Variables considered 16

17 Leg-based international departures (million) in 2043, alternative scenarios 17

18 Summary and implications Air travel demand in New Zealand would have a good growth across regions, although the growth rates vary with regions and scenarios Air travel growth would be stronger in Queenstown and other hub airports (Auckland, Christchurch and Wellington) Domestic air passenger departures would be doubled by 2043 in the Base case and Scenarios A&B, and more than tripled in the Scenarios C&D This growth will imply in many cases the need to upgrade airport facilities and potentially land transport links to and from the airport Not only the hub airports, but some regional airports may also need to upgrade their facilities to accommodate larger aircraft 18

19 Contact: Haobo Wang Analytics & Modelling, Ministry of Transport