Merge or Perish: Irish Aviation in a Rapidly Changing Global Market

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1 Merge or Perish: Irish Aviation in a Rapidly Changing Global Market Professor Aisling Reynolds-Feighan UCD School of Economics UL Kemmy Business School Third Annual Tourism Policy Workshop, November 2-4, 2012

2 Presentation Overview Global trends in air transport Airline networks Competition Industry Consolidation & Spatial Concentration European mergers Aer Lingus & Ryanair Prospects for the Irish Market Funding provided by UCD Centre for Regulation & Governance & UCD School of Economics

3 Global trends in air transport Air Traffic Growth key drivers Economic Growth Rapid urbanisation of global population (67% by 2050) Concentration of population and of economic activities in space has driven economic growth and development Acted as the focal points for the developing global air transport network Industry forecasts average case: long run growth rate of 4-5% to 2030

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5 Air Traffic Growth in 2000s Rapid Growth in European and Asian Markets Focused on intra-continental traffic Still relatively small inter-continental traffic

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7 Arrival Region Millions Global Distribution of Departure Passenger Air Traffic Movements, SW NA ME LA EU AF AS EU LA ME NA SW AS AF Departure Region AF AS EU LA ME NA SW

8 Arrival Region Millions Global Distribution of Departure Passenger Air Traffic Movements, SW NA ME LA EU AF AS EU LA ME NA SW AS AF Departure Region AF AS EU LA ME NA SW

9 How important is air transport to Ireland?

10 PASSENGER-KILOMETRES PERFORMED (millions), Very Important! Passenger-kilometres performed (millions) Total Operations (Dom & Int'l) Rank ICAO Annual Report of the Council, 2011

11 PASSENGER-KILOMETRES PERFORMED (millions), Very Important! Ranking based on traffic from carrier s country of registration Passenger-kilometres performed (millions) Total Operations (Dom & Int'l) Rank ICAO Annual Report of the Council, 2011

12 ICAO Annual Report of the Council, 2011 PASSENGER-KILOMETRES PERFORMED (millions) Total Operations (international and domestic) Country or group Rank % Change International Operations Only Rank % Change Pop Rank United States China United Kingdom Germany United Arab Emirates France Russian Federation Canada Japan Ireland India Singapore Brazil

13 ICAO Annual Report of the Council, 2011 Total Operations (international and domestic) Country or group Rank % Change PASSENGER-KILOMETRES PERFORMED (millions) International Operations Only Rank % Change Pop Rank United States China United Kingdom Germany United Arab Emirates France Russian Federation Canada Japan Ireland India Singapore Brazil Australia Republic of Korea Spain Netherlands Turkey Indonesia Thailand Qatar

14 BRICs: Rapidly growing air transport markets domestic & intra-regional focus

15 ICAO Annual Report of the Council, 2011 Total Operations (international and domestic) Country or group Rank % Change PASSENGER-KILOMETRES PERFORMED (millions) International Operations Only Rank % Change Pop Rank United States China United Kingdom Germany United Arab Emirates France Russian Federation Canada Japan Ireland India Singapore Brazil Australia Republic of Korea Spain Netherlands Turkey Indonesia Thailand Qatar

16 Seats Available Number of Routes Millions Top 10 European Carriers, 2010 Low Cost Carriers Ryanair Lufthansa Air France Easyjet British Airways Turkish Airlines Air Berlin Iberia SAS Airlines KLM 0 Total Seats Available Number of Routes

17 Number of Non-Stop Routes by Major Region, Growth in European Routes Driven by LCCs AF AS EU LA ME NA SW

18 600 Number of Airports with Jet Services by Major Global Regions, AF AS EU LA ME NA SW

19

20 Large number of routes from European airports

21 Dominance of Many of Largest Airports by Single Carrier

22 Thousands Departure Movements for Top 10 Carriers in Each Major Region, 2010 Huge scale of US Carriers Ryanair Airline Code Carrier Region: AF AS EU LA ME NA SW

23 Total Available Seats Number of Carriers Millions US & EU27 Number of Carriers and Seating Capacity US Market: Rationalisation of capacity Merger activity Total Available EU27 Seats Total Available US Seats Number of EU Carriers Number of US Carriers 23

24 Total Available Seats Number of Carriers Millions US & EU27 Number of Carriers and Seating Capacity European Market consolidating Total Available EU27 Seats Total Available US Seats Number of EU Carriers Number of US Carriers 24

25 Airline networks Academic literature dominated by US view: Huband-Spoke networks with transferring passengers Airline networks: production plan and products Easily change networks by adding or cutting links and nodes Airport fortunes dependent on decisions of carriers investments riskier in liberalised market environments Dramatic increases or decreases in air traffic because of carrier decisions

26 Ratio of All Route Offerings to Non-Stop Segments Operated Year AF AS EU LA ME NA SW

27 Ratio of All Route Offerings to Non-Stop Segments Operated Year AF AS EU LA ME NA SW European carriers offering largely direct routings

28 Middle Eastern Carrier Networks Emirates Ethihad Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabian Doha Qatar

29 Asian Carrier Networks Air China China Southern China Eastern Japan Airlines

30 North American Carriers Delta Air Lines Southwest American Airlines JetBlue

31 European Carrier Networks Air France Lufthansa BA Ryanair Turkish Airlines

32 European carriers nationally focused: small distance between top airports

33 Top 5 airports served by selected European Carriers North American Regional Science Association Meetings, San Francisco, Nov 18-21,

34 Top 5 airports served by selected European Carriers North American Regional Science Association Meetings, San Francisco, Nov 18-21,

35 Competition Liberalisation rapid expansion of services; Rationalisation and merger activity: reducing capacity and number of carriers in markets Europe: further consolidation expected; ownership issues & external traffic rights prevented consolidation in 1990s Reality is that most airline routes have one carrier

36 Competition on European & North American Air Routes, 2010 Number of Carriers* Operating on Routes Region EU EU NA USA * Includes all international carriers 36

37 Mergers: the big trend

38 Merger Candidates Merger Completed Resulting Entity Southwest Airlines / AirTran Airways 2/5/2011 Southwest Airlines SkyWest / Atlantic Southeast Airlines / ExpressJet Airlines 11/15/2010 SkyWest / ASA United Airlines / Continental Airlines 1/10/2010 United Airlines Pinnacle Airlines / Mesaba Airlines 1/7/2010 Pinnacle Airlines / Mesaba Airlines Delta Air Lines / Northwest Airlines 12/31/2009 Delta Air Lines Republic Airways / Frontier Airlines 1/10/2009 Republic Airways Republic Airways / Midwest Airlines 7/31/2009 Republic Airways Pinnacle Airlines / Colgan Air 1/18/2007 Pinnacle Airlines / Colgan Air US Airways / America West Airlines 9/27/2005 US Airways SkyWest / Atlantic Southeast Airlines 8/9/2005 SkyWest / ASA Republic Airways / Shuttle America 9/5/2005 Republic Airways American Airlines / TWA 9/4/2001 American Airlines Delta Air Lines / Comair 10/22/1999 Delta Air Lines Delta Air Lines / Atlantic Southeast Airlines 3/22/1999 Delta Air Lines American Airlines / Reno Air 1/2/1999 American Airlines AirTran Airways / Valujet 11/17/1997 AirTran Airways 38

39 European Mergers Cross-border mergers permitted among the largest carriers Only 2 blocked: Irish & Greek carriers: concerns about dominance in the market

40 Date Merger Event 26 January 2011 Commission blocks proposed merger between Aegean Airlines and Olympic Air 27 July 2010 Commission approves merger between United Air Lines and Continental Airlines 14 July 2010 Commission approves merger between British Airways and Iberia 28 August 2009 Commission clears proposed takeover of Austrian Airlines by Lufthansa, subject to conditions 22 June 2009 Commission clears proposed takeover of SN Brussels Airlines by Lufthansa, subject to conditions 14 May 2009 Commission approves acquisition of British Midland by Lufthansa 09 January 2009 Commission clears Iberia's proposed acquisition of Vueling and Clickair, subject to conditions 17 December 2008 Commission clears proposed take-over of Martinair by KLM 06 August 2008 Commission approves acquisition of Northwest Airlines by Delta Airlines 27 June 2007 Commission prohibits Ryanair s proposed takeover of Aer Lingus 22 December 2005 Commission clears planned acquisition of control over Eurowings by Lufthansa, subject to conditions 05 July 2005 Commission clears planned acquisition of Swiss by Lufthansa, subject to conditions 11 February 2004 Commission clears merger between Air France and KLM subject to conditions 40

41 Dublin Airport: All European Routes by One carrier 2 Carriers 3 Carriers 3% 20% Number of Competitors % 2% 8% 12% One carrier 2 Carriers 3 Carriers 4 Carriers 5 Carriers 6 Carriers 0% 5% %

42 % Routes with One Carrier Cork Paris-Orly Dublin Amsterdam Paris-CDG Madrid , , , , European Departure Movements European Airports DUB ORK SNN

43 Number of Routes 120 Number of Routes at European Airports by Number of Carriers, AMS CDG DUB FRA MAD LHR ORK One carrier 2 Carriers 3 Carriers 4 Carriers 5 Carriers 6 Carriers

44 Aer Lingus 2010, European Routes 13% 3% 2% 1% 50% 31% Aer Lingus 2010 Dublin Routes One carrier 2 Carriers 3 Carriers 4 Carriers 5 Carriers 6 Carriers 15% 2% 46% 37% One carrier 2 Carriers 3 Carriers 4 Carriers

45 Ryanair 2010, European Routes 11% 6% 2% 1% 0% 80% One carrier 2 Carriers 3 Carriers 4 Carriers 5 Carriers 6 Carriers 68% 23% Ryanair 2010 Dublin Routes 9% One carrier 2 Carriers 3 Carriers

46 Lufthansa Air France 12% 6% 1% 1% 10% 6% 1% 1% 54% 24% 58% 26% One carrier 2 Carriers 3 Carriers 4 Carriers 5 Carriers 6 Carriers Iberia One carrier 2 Carriers 3 Carriers 4 Carriers 5 Carriers 6 Carriers BA 5% 3% 2% 9% 3% 2% 27% 16% 21% 52% 22% One carrier 2 Carriers 3 Carriers 4 Carriers 5 Carriers 6 Carriers 38% One carrier 2 Carriers 3 Carriers 4 Carriers 5 Carriers 6 Carriers

47 Ryanair-Aer Lingus Merger Cons Merged company dominant carrier at Dublin Airport Competition eliminated from routes

48 Ryanair-Aer Lingus Merger Pros Strong Irish Carrier Major player in European Market vital for accessibility Access to secondary airports but also capital city primary airports network for long haul route development Management, fleet ownership & expertise likely to continue to be based in Ireland ME or EU Carrier takeover of Aer Lingus could result in downgrading to feeder services to another European hub - End up with just one Irish carrier anyway, but with reduced access to primary EU airports

49 Prospects for the Irish Market Difficult economic circumstances will affect air traffic prospects Completion of the IUM network has changed the geography of Ireland Regional airports played an important role in 1990s & 2000s: difficult to survive without subvention hard to justify now Shannon, Cork & Kerry: significantly overlapping hinterland & now closer to Dublin

50 Conclusion Air accessibility is vital for an export-oriented Island economy Demonstrated advantages to having a strong European-focused Irish airline European consolidation will continue & give rise to further spatial concentration of air traffic Ireland must think of long term strategic needs!

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