SAS Q1 2013/14. Tough 1 st Quarter 2013/2014 as expected THE NEWEUROBONUS. Q1 EBT MSEK -146 Positive effects from pension plans MSEK 1,044

Transcription

1 SAS Q1 2013/ Tough 1 st Quarter 2013/2014 as expected Q1 EBT MSEK -146 Positive effects from pension plans MSEK 1,044 Yield down 5.6% in Q1 THE NEWEUROBONUS Launch in Spring 2014 Welcome onboard! Restructuring program continues to deliver SK operating expenses down 4.8%* while scheduled capacity was up 3.4% Unit cost down 3.2% (ex fuel) Aircraft utilization increased by 5.1%** Financial position improved Preference share issue of SEK 3.5 bn Convertible bond issue of SEK 1.6 bn Financial preparedness 43% (proforma) * Currency adjusted and excluding non recurring items. **On a 12 months rolling basis. 2 1

2 Continued yield pressure, though cautiously positive signs ahead on corporate travel Competitor yield trends (Yield development vs. same quarter last year; %) 5% Signs of eased restrictions in corporate travel % 0% SAS 5% Norwegian 10% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Nordic Business Travel Barometer Q Travel as cheaply as possible Travel restrictions apply Holding back on travel 3 Capacity growth for summer 14 lower than LY Capacity to/from/within Scandinavia (mn seats) 43.5 winter 11/12 0.1% +6.8% 43.4 winter 12/ winter 13/14 Expected capacity change summer season 14 vs LY to/from/within Scandinavia SAS: ~4% Norwegian: ~6% AirFrance/KLM: ~3% +8.3% +1.8% Ryanair: ~ -30% summer 12 summer 13 summer 14 (planned) Source: Innovata schedule data as of February

3 SAS strategic priorities Vision Strategic priorities Enablers 1 Establish an efficient operating platform Complete restructuring program Lean To make life easier for Scandinavia s frequent travelers 2 Win the battle for Scandinavia s frequent travelers Loyalty Partnerships With SAS you are part of a community experiencing easy, joyful and reliable services, delivered the Scandinavian way 3 Invest in our future Aircraft orders Cabin renewal Re-engage organization 5 1. Improvement in operating platform Punctuality improving Scandinavian Airlines Increased aircraft utilization A/C utilization vs. LY, (short haul)* 84.9% 86.6% +3.0% +5.1% Q1 FY13 Q1 FY14 Q1 FY13 Q1 FY14 * 12 months rolling Unit cost decreasing SK, FX & Fuel adjusted unit cost vs. LY Cabin crew productivity growth up Scandinavian Airlines vs. LY * +2.8% +8.4% -2.7% -3.2% Q1 FY13 Q1 FY14 * 12 months rolling Q1 FY13 Q1 FY14 6 3

4 1. Establishing an efficient operating platform Completion of 4XNG Accelerating Lean Further initiatives Finalize IT restructuring Complete deal on Ground outsourcing Full delivery on admin centralization and FTE reduction Aim is to stabilize and maintain high operational quality with reduced resource buffers Create clear ownership of core processes and collaboration along value chain activities Cost of sales review of distribution strategy CASK reduction follow through of 2 tier production platform Product setting revisit true commercial cost through travel chain vs. frequent travelers needs NEXT GENERATION 7 2. A strong platform for winning Scandinavia s frequent travelers Net Promoter Scores % SAS Lufthansa Malmö Aviation NPS Top 5 drivers among frequent travelers to qualify as preferred carrier 1. Smooth travel 2. Punctuality 3. Hassle free luggage handling 4. Loyalty privileges Norwegian Communication and service on board Ryanair Source: Implement Consulting Detractors Passives Promoters Source: Implement Consulting 8 4

5 2. Win the battle for Scandinavia s frequent travelers Eurobonus 2.0 Attractive community Network Eurobonus a key driver for choosing SAS Launch new Diamond tier Enhance partnerships Instant benefits in each respective tier level Already 71,000 new members since launch of new EB program Eurobonus members million 5 3 Further leverage one of Scandinavia s biggest customer databases to grow ancillary revenues New revenue streams through partnerships Commercialize different touch points throughout the travel chain Continue to optimize timetable, frequencies and destinations to make life easier for frequent travelers Opening of 44 new routes in summer 14 Expand wetlease to serve regional destinations, e.g. Vilnius, Billund, Linköping Improve timetable on key routes Target 9 3. Invest in our future New aircraft Upgrade cabins Re-engage employees Long haul 4 A E and 8 A First delivery in 2015 Short haul 30 A320neo with first delivery in 2016 MD80 fully replaced (by B737NG/A320) already in October 2013 Long haul New IFE-system New seats (incl. fully flat business seats) First aircraft with refreshed cabin to arrive late 2014 Short haul New seats for improved comfort and enhanced fuel efficiency Revitalize ambition/vision Re-engage the whole organization Strengthen focus on leadership 10 5

6 GÖRAN JANSSON CFO Significant top line pressure in Q1 (MSEK) Total operating revenue Payroll expenses Fuel Government charges Other operating expenses Total operating expenses* EBITDAR before non recurring items Leasing costs, aircraft Depreciation Share of income in affiliated companies EBIT before non recurring items Financial items EBT before non recurring items Non recurring items EBT Nov 13 Jan 14 7,871 2,490 1, ,773 7, ,169 1, Share of revenue 31.6% 23.2% 10.7% 35.2% 100.8% 0.8% 6.2% 4.2% 0.1% 11.3% 3.5% 14.9% 1.9% Nov 12 Jan 13** 9,597 3,145 2, ,126 9, Share of revenue 32.8% 21.2% 9.9% 32.6% 96.5% 3.5% 4.1% 4.4% 0.1% 5.2% 2.5% 7.8% 8.0% Change (pts) * before non recurring items ** includes Wideröe 12 6

7 Traffic revenues affected by tough market conditions SAS Group (MSEK) 8, MSEK 500 7, ,852 Total traffic revenues Nov Jan 2013 Currency Wideroe Traffic revenues Nov Jan 2013 Capacity growth Load factor Yield Other traffic revenues Total traffic revenue Nov Jan XNG contributed MSEK 380 SAS Group (MSEK) 8, , ,936 9, Total Currency operating expenses Nov Jan 2013 Wideroe Operating expenses Nov Jan 2013 Fuel excl volume & FX Volume 4XNG Other Operating expenses Nov Jan 2014 Currency Total operating expenses Nov Jan

8 4XNG restructuring program on track Decreased unit cost SK unit cost ex fuel, 4 quarter average FTE reduction according to plan 0% 2% 4% 14,354 12, % 6% 8% 10% Q1 FY13 Q1 FY14 Cost reductions of SEK 1.5 bn realized during FY13 Additional MSEK 380 realized in Q1 Unit cost down 3.2% in Q1 FY14 Sale of Wideröe Centralization of administration Outsourcing 15 Recapitalization plan completed EMTN private placement tbond Domestic private placement bond Refinance bonds that matures in 2014 MEUR 35 Refinance bonds that matures in 2014 MSEK 1,500 Preference share issue Strengthen shareholders equity and financial preparedness Provide capital for the modernization of the aircraft fleet MSEK ~3,500 Convertible issue New bilateral facility Refinancing of the existing convertible bond that matures in April 2015 MSEK ~ 1,600 Further strengthen the financial preparedness MEUR 150 RCF cancellation As a consequence of the above financial measures and the short remaining maturity SAS will cancel the RCF The credit facility is unutilized MSEK 1,

9 Financial position improved following preference share issue Pro-forma shareholders equity impact from the switch to IAS 19R and preference share issue 12 Equity ratio development, SAS Group 31% Equity, 30 Net Oct 2013 pension write down Q1 Equity, 31 Jan Preference Proforma share issue Equity Net 16 p.u. Equity 31 Equity 1 Nov Oct (post IAS19) 3 p.u. Q1 FY14 12% Equity 31 Jan p.u. 20% Preference share issue Net Equity 31 Jan 2014 Proforma 17 Financial preparedness significantly improved Issue of preference shares and convertible bond completed To improve financial preparedness Reduce dependence on bank financing Pay off maturing debt Bond in June 2014 Convertible in April 2015 Position SAS for upcoming aircraft order Complete restructuring program Series Financial preparedness, proforma % Q Recapitalization Dividend pref share 32 Bond jun Convertible apr

10 Summary SAS expects to grow capacity by ~4% in the summer season 14 vs. LY 44 new destinations to be opened in summer season 14 Significant renewal of EuroBonus program Renewal of fleet ongoing Punctuality back on track Further improvements of on board product Continuous expansion of fast track 4 new airports expected in 2014 Outlook FY 2013/14: Continued yield pressure expected Positive EBT (ex positive pension effects) in FY14 19 Thank you! 10

11 3. SAS investing in renewal and simplification of the aircraft fleet Current fleet in traffic, 31 Jan 2014 New orders Airbus A330/ Long haul Airbus A319/320/321 Short/medium haul Boeing /700/800 Short/medium haul +12 Airbus A330E/350 Long haul +30 New aircraft deliveries Airbus A320neo Short/medium haul Order value of approx. USD 3bn Intention to use mix of financing (e.g. bank debt, sale and lease back and export financing) including an equity portion (No.) 12 Boeing Regional jet 2 12 Boeing CRJ900 0 Regional jet A320neo A330E/ XNG: Delivering on strategic priorities Q1 Pillar Action Impact Cost and efficiency Pension switch over Financial preparedness New collective bargaining agreement Administration & IT restructuring Restructure of sales organization Network optimization Wet lease Outsourcing of Ground Handling New agreement on pension schemes Move to contribution plans completed in Sweden, Denmark and Norway. Strengthened financial position SAS recapitalized Unit cost, ex fuel, down by 3.2% in Q1 Personnel unit cost reduced by 10.4% Aircraft utilization up 5.1% SK capacity up 3.4% in Q1 New wet lease operation implemented Increase flexibility in cost structure Full year effect MSEK 500 from FY14 Reduced equity effect of accounting rules, from SEK 12bn to SEK 6.8bn 68bn Outstanding pension liability reduced by 60% (by 2017/2018) Financial preparedness at 43% (proforma) Preference share issue SEK 3.5bn Convertible bond SEK 1.6bn 22 11

12 Airline profits are still strongly squeezed in the European market Airline EBIT margins by region % Africa Europe Latin America Middle East Asia Pacific North America Source: IATA 23 Appendices Fleet & productivity Unit revenue (yield & RASK) & Unit cost Traffic & capacity outlook Financial update Currency & Fuel 24 12

13 SAS Group fleet January 2014 Aircraft Type Age Owned Leased Total In traffic Firm order Airbus A330/A340/A Airbus A321/A320/A Boeing 737 Classic Boeing 737 NG Boeing Douglas MD-80-series Bombardier CRJ900 NG Total Lease order Leased out aircraft Age Owned Leased Total In service Douglas MD-90-series Avro RJ Bombardier Q *In addition SAS wet leases the following aircraft: four CRJ200, four ATR and four S Productivity development Scandinavian Airlines Aircraft utilization (12 months rolling) Hrs/day 9,0 8,5 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 08 jan-0 Capacity reduction initiated 08 jul-0 09 jan-0 09 jul-0 10 jan-1 10 jul-1 11 jan-1 11 jul-1 12 jan-1 Increasing utilization in 4Excellence 12 jul-1 13 Jan-1 13 Jul-1 14 Jan-1 Scandinavian Airlines Cabin, pilot utilization (12 months rolling) Hrs/yr sy Capacity reduction initiated Increasing productivity due to Core SAS/4XNG jan-0 jul-0 jan-0 jul-0 jan-1 jul-1 jan-1 jul-1 jan-1 jul-1 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan Pilots Cabin crew Block hours, 12 months rolling, Oct 2013 Aircraft, hours/day Pilots, hours/year Cabin, hours/year Scandinavian Airlines

14 Appendices Fleet & productivity Unit revenue (yield & RASK) & unit cost Traffic & capacity outlook Financial update Currency & Fuel 27 Yield and PASK development Yield, SEK Currency adj Q1 PASK, SEK currency adj Q1-5.6% -8.1% 28 14

15 Negative yield development in Q1 FY14 Load Factor Yield (SEK) 80% 70% Yield (12 months rolling), SK Load Factor (12 months rolling), SAS Group 1,35 1,30 1,25 1,20 1,15 1,10 1,05 60% January 2005 January 2006 January 2007 January 2008 January 2009 January 2010 January 2011 January 2012 January ,00 Jan Quarterly yield development Scandinavian Airlines, currency adjusted yield vs last year 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0% -10,0% -15,0% -20,0% -6,3% -14,3% -15,6% 1,2% 7,8% -0,6% -0,6% -7,8% 1,2% 1,9% 15,4% 16,0% 9,2% 8,3% 5,6% 3,8% 2,7% 2,9% 1,0% 0,1% -6,0% 0,6% -1,3% -2,3% -2,3% -4,3% -4,0% -2,7% -8,2% -7,6% -6,6% -6,7% -9,4% 94% -11,4% 3,1% 2,7% 1,8% 1,6% -0,6% -4,1% -5,6% Q Q4 2012/13 Q3 2012/13 Q2 2012/13 Q1 2012/13 Oct Q Q Q 2012 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Note: Including Blue1 from March

16 Summary of key drivers SAS Group Q2 2012/13 Q3 2012/13 Q4 2012/13 Q1 2013/14 Traffic (RPK) +1.0% 10% +5.6% +3.1% +0.7% 07% Passenger load factor 2.3 p.u. 1.6 p.u. 1.7p.u. 1.8 p.u. Scandinavian Airlines Passenger yield +2.7% 0.6% 4.1% 5.6% Total unit revenue (RASK/PASK)* 1.7% 4.8% 5.8% 8.1% Total unit cost (excluding fuel) 10.7% 5.8% 3.3% 3.2% * RASK for Q2, Q3, Q4 and PASK from Q1 2013/14 31 Number of FTEs down 14.4% due to restructuring program and sale of Wideröe Capacity, Scandinavian Airlines ASK, millions +3.4% 8,580 8,295 SAS Group FTEs 14, % 12,290 Nov-Jan 2013 Nov-Jan 2014 Nov-Jan Nov-Jan

17 Quarterly unit cost development Scandinavian Airlines, currency adjusted unit cost excluding fuel vs last year 10% Turnaround 2005 and increasing intercontinental capacity 5% 4X/4XNG 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Unit cost decrease and capacity reduction at same time - Core SAS Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Note: Including Blue1 from March Breakdown of unit cost, Nov 2013 Jan 2014 Scandinavian Airlines, SEK, currency adjusted Unit cost breakdown Nov 2013 Jan 2014 Nov Jan 2013 Var, % Share of total var, % Payroll expenses Jet fuel Government user fees Selling and distribution costs Handling costs Technical aircraft maint. Other operating expenses -2,480-1, ,767-1, ,4% -6,1% -5,9% 16,7% 0,3% 7,6% 160% -3,6% -1.5% -0.7% -1,2% 0.0% 0.6% 2,1% Total operating expenses -6,936-7,279-4,7% -4,3% Leasing costs for aircraft Depreciation ,6% -16,4% 1,1% -0.8% Adjusted EBIT -7,750-8, % -3,9% 34 17

18 Appendices Fleet & productivity Unit revenue (yield & RASK) & Unit cost Traffic and capacity outlook Financial update Currency & Fuel 35 SAS passenger development Scheduled passenger Scandinavian Airlines, 12 months rolling (Million) jan 12 feb 12 mar 12 apr 12 may 12 jun 12 jul 12 aug 12 sep 12 oct 12 nov 12 dec 12 jan 13 feb 13 mar 13 apr 13 may 13 jun 13 jul 13 jul 14 jul 15 au sep oct nov dec 13 jan 14 18

19 Improved operating platform enables SAS to launch 44 new routes in 2014 Unit cost down 5.9% in FY13 52 new routes to be launched in 2013 In addition to 2013, 44 new routes will be opened in routes from Sweden 15 routes from Norway 14 routes from Denmark 37 ASK outlook for financial year 2013/14 ASK outlook for November 2013 October 2014 Scheduled Financial year 2013/14 vs 2012/13 Scandinavian Airlines +3 to +4% 38 19

20 Punctuality of 86.6% in Q1 Punctuality (15 min) Nov Jan 2013/14 vs Nov Jan 2012/13, % Scandinavian Airlines 84.9% Nov Jan FY % Nov Jan FY14 Punctuality up in Q1 New ground handling IT system implemented Best punctuality in February 2014 this century Fast Track 58,711 flights on time Nov Jan 39 Appendices Fleet & productivity Unit revenue (yield & RASK) & Unit cost Traffic & capacity outlook Financial update Currency & Fuel 40 20

21 Financial targets NEW Profitability EBIT-margin% Long term: FY16 >8% NEW Equity ratio Equity/Assets, % >35% NEW Financial preparedness Cash & unutilized credit facilities / Fixed cost >20% (70 days) 41 Overview of credit facilities January 2014 Available funds, SEK billion Jan 2014 Maturity Undrawn portion of credit facilities Revolving Credit Facility, SEK 1.8 bn Credit Facility, MUSD 137 & 56 Credit Facility, MUSD 65 Others (MUSD 110) 1.8* Mar 2015 Jan 2016, Oct 2017 Sep 2021 Feb 2020 Total undrawn credit facilities Total credit facilities Drawn portion of credit facilities Undrawn portion of credit facilities *As of the end of February 2014, SAS terminated the RCF of SEK 1.8 bn. This has been replaced by a new credit facility of MEUR 150 with maturity in January

22 Cash seasonality Seasonality of SAS cash flow from operating activities Cash flow has seasonality increased as more passenger pre book tickets ahead of the summer period Leisure travelling generates a higher degree of early bookings Business bookings closer to departure Working capital in Q1 FY14 similar to FY13 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 43 Amortization profile Scheduled amortization profile as of 31 January 2014, MSEK Q2 Q

23 Gearing ratios 400% 350% 300% Fin Net Debt / Equity Equity / Total Assets Fin. Net Debt + 7*Op lease / Equity 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% dec- 98 dec- dec- jun- dec- jun- dec- 05- dec jun jun dec jun dec jun dec jun dec jun dec- Jun- Oct- Apr- Octdec jun SAS Group Financial Net November January MSEK Nov13-Jan 14 Nov12-Jan 13 Difference Interest net and others Exchange rate differences Financial net

24 Development and Break Down Financial Net Debt MSEK 31 Jan Oct 2013 Difference Cash Other interest bearing assets Interest bearing liabilities 3,343 2,344-11,397 4,751 2,192-11,510-1, Financial net debt -5,710-4,567-1, Development of financial net debt

25 Equity / Assets Ratio Prior to issue of preference shares 49 Financial Net Debt / Equity Ratio Prior to issue of preference shares 50 25

26 Appendices Fleet & productivity Unit revenue (yield & RASK) & Unit cost Traffic & capacity outlook Financial update Currency & Fuel 51 Breakdown of currency effects SAS Group Total revenues & costs currency effects Nov 2013 Jan 2014 vs LY Total revenues & costs Forward cover costs Working capital Financial items Total currency effects USD DKK NOK EUR Asian currencies All others Total Difference Difference Difference

27 Changes in currency exchange rates affected the result by MSEK 32 in Nov 2013 Jan 2014 vs Nov 2012 Jan 2013 Currency effects MSEK on SAS Group vs Negative impact on revenue primarily due to the weaker NOK Positive impact on other operating costs primarily due to the weaker NOK Total revenue Total costs Forward cover costs & working capital Income before depreciation Financial items Income before tax Nov 13 Jan Currency distribution in SAS Group Nov 2012 Oct 2013 Revenue Expenses 54 27

28 Lower fuel costs due to currency, price and hedging MSEK Actual Q1 FY13 Currency Wideroe Curr & Wideroe adj Actual FY13 Hedge FY13: 15 FY14: +10 Time value FY13: 0 FY14 : 3 Volume/ Price & Other Actual Q1 FY14 Limited fuel price exposure Jet fuel, spot price development, USD Current hedges 45% of the consumption hedged for next twelve months 89% of consumption hedged during Q2 2013/14 Call options enables SAS to benefit from lower fuel prices 56 28

29 SAS hedging position for FY14 SAS Group s jet fuel hedging portfolio Feb-Apr 2014 May-Jul 2014 Aug-Oct 2014 Nov-Jan 2015 Jet fuel hedging proportion 89% 70% 20% 0% SAS Group s jet fuel costs in 2013/14 (annual average values) 5.0 SEK/USD 6.0 SEK/USD 7.0 SEK/USD 8.0 SEK/USD Market price 800 USD/MT 1,000 USD/MT 1,200 USD/MT 1,400 USD/MT SEK 6.3 bn SEK bn SEK 7.5 bn SEK 8.0 bn SEK 7.2 bn SEK 8.0 bn SEK 8.6 bn SEK 9.2 bn SEK 8.1 bn SEK bn SEK 9.8 bn SEK 10.4 bn SEK 9.0 bn SEK bn SEK 10.9 bn SEK 11.6 bn 57 29