Connecting the Mediterranean with the rest of Europe WINGX Market Intelligence

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Esmond Cox
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1 Connecting the Mediterranean with the rest of Europe WINGX Market Intelligence by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAM issue 9/13/2013

2 The business aviation activity cycle in Europe Double dip. On track for 2-3% contraction on Departures per month Growth path Recovery corridor Including seasonal variation Excl. seasonal variation 2013 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue9/13/2013 2

3 European Business Aviation departure growth in August Latest data: mostly red, but Western Europe and Med recovery Total Europe: +0,8% August 2013 YOY IS -2,3-18,4 FI NO -3,4 +0,1 SE -16,5 EE -4,8 DK +14,5 LA -3,1 IE UK -7,2 NL +12,2 BE +11,5 12,1 LU +2,6 F +2,5 CH -5,3 D -1,2 CZ -10,4 A -11,2 Sl LT +27,0 BY +22,2-17,4 PL UA -4,9 SA -15,1 HG +51,0 MD -16,2 RO HR -0,6 +26,3 RU -4,1 PT +30,3 ES +19,5 +3,4 I -1,7 BA -4,8 RS +4,9 BG XY + 1,2-1,2 XY % MA -8,7 AL 2013 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue 9/13/ GR +5,2 +0,1 CY TR +4,6

Selected major Mediterranean markets August YTD 2013 Through this year, some recovery in Eastern Med (Malta highlight) MED FRANCE 0,7 ITALY 5,5 CROATIA 0,3 SPAIN 2,6 GREECE 4,3 TURKEY 5,2 MOROCCO

4 Selected major Mediterranean markets August YTD 2013 Through this year, some recovery in Eastern Med (Malta highlight) MED FRANCE 0,7 ITALY 5,5 CROATIA 0,3 SPAIN 2,6 GREECE 4,3 TURKEY 5,2 MOROCCO 2,5 ALGERIA 9,4 TUNISIA 19,9 MALTA 13,4 CYPRUS 4,9 ISRAEL 7,1 LIBYA 7,7 EGYPT 20,0 XY + 1,2-1,2 XY % 2013 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue 9/13/2013 4

5 European regional activity, Med took the brunt of recession (25,000 flights fewer) EUROPE Western Europe Mediterranean BizAv Departures Eastern Europe Growth 15, ,0 11,1% , , ,0-10,0-6,1% ,0-14,6% 2012 vs Source: WINGX Advance, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 5

6 Med regional activity, Mixed pattern, but mostly declining markets MED Deps 2013YTD Italy Spain Slovenia Croatia Greece Turkey Tunisia Egypt 0-40,0 Gibraltar Israel Libya Albania Cyprus -30,0-20,0-10,0 Bosnia and Herzegovina 0,0 Morocco Algeria Lebanon Malta 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 2013YTD vs 2008YTD 2013 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation 9/13/2013 6

7 Distribution of flights in Med market, 2013 YTD Top 5 c.85% of market. Italy and Spain taking market down YTD MED Total departures (2013: YTD) Additional departures per month YTD growth August YOY growth Italy 40,114 Spain 31,501 Turkey 17,869 Greece 8,464 Croatia 4,732 Morocco 3,398 Israel 1,863 Slovenia 1,841 Cyprus 1,426 Lebanon 1,216 Egypt 1,211 Malta 908 Tunisia 745 Algeria 710 Bosnia and Herzegovina 408 Libya 395 Gibraltar 226 Albania 168 Grand Total 117, % -19.9% -22.7% -23.3% -5.5% -2.6% -2.5% -4.9% -9.4% -0.3% -7.7% -2.0% 5.2% 4.3% 7.1% 0.7% 20.0% 13.4% 5.6% -39.9% -5.2% -12.4% -6.5% 3.1% 17.4% 11.0% 4.0% 4.2% 9.9% 0.5% 11.8% 11.5% 1.5% 12.2% 29.6% 8.1% 39.2% 125.0% X,N,G 2013 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue9/13/2013 7

8 Monthly departure trends (YOY) by mission type Last 18 months: consistently down, private most MED Thds. of departures YOY Private YOY Charter YOY Other Jan.-12 3,0 5,1 1,7 9,9-4,1% -8,6% 18,3% Febr.-12 3,0 5,3 1,9 10,2-16,3% -7,3% 3,8% März-12 Apr.-12 4,1 6,2 4,0 6,7 2,3 12,6 1,8 12,5-20,3% -1,1% -0,6% -4,2% -0,1% 22,6% Mai-12 5,3 8,1 2,5 15,9-8,6% -6,5% 5,0% Juni-12 Juli-12 5,9 10,2 6,6 12,3 2,2 18,3 2,4 21,3-11,1% -13,0% -1,7% -5,6% 7,9% 15,2% Aug.-12 5,6 11,2 2,1 19,0-9,3% -0,7% 1,4% Sept.-12 5,1 9,2 2,1 16,4-15,9% 0,1% -11,0% Okt.-12 4,3 7,5 2,2 14,0-11,9% -8,7% -3,7% Nov.-12 Dez.-12 3,3 2,6 6,0 1,8 4,8 1,4 8,9 11,0-15,2% -14,9% -8,0% -14,5% -10,7% -16,8% Jan.-13 2,8 4,6 1,5 9,0-6,7% -10,4% -10,1% Febr.-13 März-13 3,0 4,9 1,7 9,7 3,3 5,7 1,8 10,8-6,7% 0,4% -10,4% -6,4% -10,1% -10,0% Apr.-13 4,0 6,4 2,1 12,5-18,7% -7,5% -22,6% Mai-13 Juni-13 5,0 8,6 2,2 15,8 5,8 10,1 2,5 18,4-5,8% 0,4% -3,7% 6,4% -10,3% 13,5% Juli-13 6,3 11,9 2,3 20,5-1,5% -1,3% 10,7% Aug.-13 5,8 12,2 2,5 20,5-4,3% -3,2% -4,1% Private Charter Other 2013 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue9/13/2013 8

9 TOP 20 Destination Countries from Med countries Growth destinations: Turkey, Russia, Ukraine, Saudi MED Arrivals: 2013 YTD YTD growth Italy Spain France Germany UK Switzerland Russia Greece Austria Morocco Croatia Ukraine Serbia and Montenegro Portugal Czech Republic Belgium Saudi Arabia Slovenia Israel 1,935 1,733 1,392 1,107 1,077 1, ,804 5,653 4,889 4,867 6,897 6,541 11,592 Turkey 11,331 20,354 17, % -5.4% -1.0% -9.1% -3.3% -16.8% -0.1% -5.4% 0.1% 8.8% 2.0% 0.0% 4.9% 2.3% 1.8% 7.2% 8.5% 9.2% 22.3% 28.1% 2013 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue9/13/2013 9

10 Share of activity in smaller Med markets (15-20%) Morocco is largest, Egypt fastest growing. Malta & Cyprus. SMALL MED Bos & Her, 408 Libya, 395 Gibraltar, 226 Albania, 168 Algeria, 710 Tunisia, 745 Malta, 908 Morocco, 3398 Egypt, 1211 Israel, 1863 Lebanon, 1216 Cyprus, 1426 Slovenia, by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue9/13/

11 Top 30 City Pairs in July Charter only, small markets Thessanoliki, Larnaca, Ben Gurion. Enfidha-Stuttgart. SMALL MED LGTS-UUWW LCLK-UUWW LLBG-UUWW HEGN-UWKD GMMX-LFPB DAUH-LEMD HEGN-UWWW LGSR-LGAV LCLK-LLBG LLBG-LCLK LGAV-LGSR DTNH-EDDS HESH-UUDD HEGN-UWUU LGKR-LGAV LGAV-LYBE OLBA-LCLK LGAV-UUWW OLBA-LFMN LCLK-OLBA LGAV-LGKR HEGN-USPP LGAV-LTFJ LGAV-LFMN LGAV-LSGG LGAV-LGTS LLBG-EGGW LGMK-LTBA LLBG-LSGG LLBG-LFMN Charter Flights: 2013 YTD YTD growth % by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue9/13/

12 Top 30 City Pairs in July Private only More concentration. Top of list Morocco domestic. SMALL MED GMMB-GMFF GMFF-GMMB LJMB-LOWG LGAV-LGMK LGMK-LGAV LGSA-LGSA LLBG-LCLK GMMB-GMME LCLK-LLBG OLBA-OERK LLBG-EGGW OLBA-LCLK LCLK-LGAV LGAV-LGAV GMME-GMMB LCLK-UUWW LLBG-EINN LCLK-OLBA LGAV-LGKR GMMB-GMMB LLBG-UUWW LJLJ-LYBE LGIR-LGSR LLSD-LCLK OLBA-LFMN LGSR-LGIR LLBG-LFMN LGAV-LCLK GMMN-LEMG Private Flights 2013 YTD Beirut- Riyadh YTD growth % by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue9/13/

13 The historical trend for business aviation in Malta Activity on upward trend, with 2013 summer peak MALTA TOTAL Departures per month Growth path Recovery corridor Including seasonal variation Excl. seasonal variation 2013 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue9/13/

14 Monthly departure trends by mission type, YTD Growth mainly private, big boost in July. August? MALTA Departures Jan YOY growth Private 38,1% -40,0% YOY growth Charter Febr ,8% -33,3% Mar ,9% 15,0% Apr ,9% 15,4% May ,9% -16,9% Jun ,8% -6,9% Jul ,2% 1,4% Private Charter 2013 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue9/13/

15 Top 30 City Pairs from and to Malta, in 2013 YTD Libya, Tunisia, Brussels, Paris. Geneva/Tripoli down. Catania up. MALTA Private: Top 30 City Pairs 2013 YTD (with change in frequency compared to Jul 2012 YTD) Rank City Pair Freq. + /- 1. LUQA-MITIGA CARTHAGE-LUQA LUQA-BRUSSELS NATL LUQA-LE BOURGET KING KHALID INTL-LUQA BRUSSELS NATL-LUQA LE BOURGET-LUQA MANDELIEU-LUQA LUQA-ZURICH NICE COTE D'AZUR-LUQA 17-3 Rank City Pair Freq. + /- 11. LUQA-NICE COTE D'AZUR GENEVA-LUQA LUQA-GENEVA LUQA-MANDELIEU LUQA-TRIPOLI INTL CATANIA FONTANAROSSA-LUQA LUQA-LUTON ZURICH-LUQA CIAMPINO-LUQA LUQA-PALERMO 12 4 Rank City Pair Freq. + /- 21. MITIGA-LUQA LUQA-LINATE LUQA-CATANIA FONTANAROSSA LUTON-LUQA LUQA-KING ABDUL AZIZ INTL PALERMO-LUQA SANTA MARIA-LUQA LUQA-ELEFTHERIOS VENIZELOS SABIHA GOKCEN-LUQA LUQA-VNUKOVO by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue9/13/

16 Departures by aircraft segment and trip category, July YOY Heavy Jets dominate. Low rep by VLJ, TP and Piston. MALTA MALTA EUROPE max. 1.5 h 1.5h to 3h 3h to 6h more than 6h Total 2013 (Jan - Jul) Departures-Aug-2013 Bizliner 22,2% 55,6% 22,2% ltra Long Range 33,3% 33,3% 13,3% 20,0% Heavy jet 18,1% 47,1% 24,6% 10,1% uper midsize jet 6,5% 65,2% 23,9% 4,3% Midsize jet 13,0% 68,5% 18,5% Super Light jet 21,0% 67,7% 11,3% Light Jet 18,1% 66,0% 16,0% Entry Level jet 6,7% 73,3% 20,0% 15 Very Light jet 66,7% 33,3% Turboprop 18,2% 24,7% 42,9% 14,3% 77 Piston 20,6% 33,8% 44,1% % 2013 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue 9/13/

17 Top Aircraft activity, by flight departures 2013 (Jan-Jul) Bravo and Challenger 600 are LJ and HJ workhorses, compare Europe MALTA Departures CESSNA-Cessna Excel/XLS 55 BOMBARDIER-Challenger 600 series 50 HAWKER BEECHCRAFT AIRBUS-A LEARJET-60 CESSNA-Citation II/Bravo CESSNA-Citation Sovereign DASSAULT-Falcon GULFSTREAM-IV/G CESSNA-CitationJet/CJ LEARJET-35/36 BEECH-Super King Air 200 EMBRAER-ERJ-135 CESSNA-Citation CJ2 BOMBARDIER-Challenger YOY Growth -50,0% -40,0% -30,0% -20,0% -10,0% 0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 70,0% 80,0% 90,0% 100,0% 110,0% 120,0% 130,0% 140,0% negative high 2013 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue 9/13/

18 WINGX Advance actionable market intelligence www.wingx-advance.

providers For OEMs (airframe, engine) For lenders, insurers, investors For

routing, Origin & Destination 1 2 3 4 5 Airport movements incoming and

aircraft model, type, by private and commercial, seasonal and historic

and city pairs Aircraft type tracking by hourly utilization, matched to

18 18 WINGX Advance actionable market intelligence Free monthly MONITOR on request For aircraft operators & brokers For MRO providers For OEMs (airframe, engine) For lenders, insurers, investors For ground handling operations Aircraft movements by type, model, sector, cycles, routing, Origin & Destination Airport movements incoming and outbound routings, by aircraft model and type City pair connections by aircraft model, type, by private and commercial, seasonal and historic Operator analysis by aircraft model, type, versus competition, across airports and city pairs Aircraft type tracking by hourly utilization, matched to ownership history and market pricing CONTACT Insight Reports Customised Research Surveys & Forecasts Strategic Consulting

19 Appendix 2013 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation 9/13/

20 Top 15 Aircraft activity, by flight departures YOY July Europe reference point (see Bravo and 600 well down) EUROPE Departures-Jul CESSNA-Cessna Excel/XLS DASSAULT-Falcon HAWKER BEECHCRAFT CESSNA-CitationJet/CJ1 CESSNA-Citation CJ2 BOMBARDIER-Global Express BOMBARDIER-Challenger 600 series CESSNA-Citation Mustang PILATUS-PC CESSNA-Citation II/Bravo GULFSTREAM-V/G500 BOMBARDIER-Challenger CESSNA-Citation CJ3 DASSAULT-Falcon 900 BEECH-Super King Air ,0% -14,0% -12,0% -10,0% -8,0% -6,0% -4,0% -2,0% 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% 12,0% 14,0% 16,0% 18,0% 20,0% YOY Growth negative high 2013 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue 9/13/

21 European growth pattern in Top 20 countries YTD The big markets are losing near 1500 flights per month MED 2013 by WINGX Advance / Actionable Market Intelligence for Business Aviation BAI issue9/13/

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