2014 Mead & Hunt, Inc. ACI-NA AIRPORT BOARD MEMBERS & COMMISSIONERS CONFERENCE Jeffrey Hartz, Mead & Hunt, Inc.
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1 2014 Mead & Hunt, Inc. ACI-NA AIRPORT BOARD MEMBERS & COMMISSIONERS CONFERENCE Jeffrey Hartz, Mead & Hunt, Inc.
2 2 AGENDA 35,000 Overview of Airline Industry Legacy Airline Trends Low-Cost/Ultra Low-Cost Airline Trends Future Trends
3 35,000 OVERVIEW OF AIRLINE INDUSTRY
4 4 INDUSTRY PROFITS U.S. airlines have lost billions in the past 2 decades = airline bankruptcies In recent years, ancillary revenue (e.g. bag fees) and capacity restraint has helped return airlines to profitability Airline earnings (Billions) $30 $20 $10 $0 ($10) ($20) ($30) ($40) ($50) ($11) B $23 B $26 B $18 B ($58) B ($26) B Cumulative profit since 1948 Source: Airlines for America
5 5 FUEL BECOMING MORE STABLE Up until 2011, fuel uncertainty has affected how airlines can plan Since fuel has stabilized, airlines have been able to compensate and have record profits Fuel accounts for approx. 25% of airline total expenses - 40% for regional airlines Cost per barrel $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 $30 $29 $35 $48 $72 $81 $90 $125 $70 $90 $126 $128 $123 Source: Airlines for America
6 6 BANKRUPTCIES Carrier Date Chapter American Airlines (AMR Corp.) 11/29/ Gulfstream International Airlines 11/4/ Mesa Air (founded in 1982) 1/5/ Sun Country (began 1982 [scheduled service eff. 6/1/99]) 10/6/ Air Midwest (5/15/65 through 6/30/08) 5/14/ Frontier Airlines (began 7/5/94) 4/11/ Skybus Airlines (5/22/07 through 4/5/08) 4/7/ Aloha Airlines (7/26/46 through 3/31/08) 3/31/ Big Sky (9/15/78 through 1/7/08) 1/7/ Independence Air (6/16/04 through 1/5/06) 1/6/ Independence Air (originally Atlantic Coast Airlines eff. 12/15/89) 11/7/ Mesaba Airlines (founded 1944; scheduled service eff. 2/4/73) 10/13/ Delta Air Lines 9/14/ Comair 9/14/ Northwest Airlines 9/14/ Aloha Airlines 12/30/ ATA Airlines 10/26/ US Airways 9/12/ Midway Airlines 10/30/ Hawaiian Airlines 3/21/ United Airlines 12/9/ Majority of bankruptcies as a result of fuel run-up in timeframe
7 7 AIRFARES CONTINUE TO RISE $195 $185 $175 $165 $155 $145 $135 $125 Average Domestic Fare Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Airfares rose for the 4th straight year, up 21% since 2009; up 5% since 2011 Increase attributable to such factors as: Elimination of unprofitable routes Strict adherence to capacity control Industry consolidation
8 8 INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION Merged Carriers Closing Date New Entity American Airlines/US Airways 12/9/2013 American Airlines Southwest Airlines/AirTran Airways 5/2/2011 Southwest Airlines United Airlines/Continental Airlines 10/1/2010 United Airlines Delta Air Lines/Northwest Airlines 12/31/2009 Delta Air Lines Midwest Airlines/Frontier Airlines 10/1/2009 Republic Airways US Airways/America West Airlines 9/27/2005 US Airways
9 9 U.S. DOMESTIC AIRLINE OLIGOPOLY Average Seats per Week (YE July 2014) 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , major U.S. air carriers (AA, WN, DL, and UA) now control 85% of domestic capacity (i.e. seats) Source: Diio Mi Schedule (YE July 2014)
10 10 A DECADE OF CHANGE Regional hubs have been eliminated with larger gauge aircraft Non-hub airports have been affected as small regional aircraft have been parked 0% (5%) (10%) (15%) (20%) (25%) U.S. Domestic Capacity Change by Airport Size (July 2014 vs. 2000) (7%) (24%) (8%) % change in seats (23%) (11%) Large hub Medium hub Small hub Non-hub Total Source: Diio Mi Scheduled Seats
11 LEGACY AIRLINE TRENDS
12 12 LEGACY SCHEDULES: CHANGE IN FOCUS Domestic departures are down significantly since 2009, while seats aren t down as much with larger gauge aircraft Airlines have concentrated growth internationally, with significant growth at AA/US and DL/NW since 2009 Carrier Departures Seats 2014 vs Domestic Schedule Comparison 2014 vs 2009 AA/US 6,259 6,192 (1.1%) 4,066,010 4,138, % DL/NW 6,097 5,194 (14.8%) 3,724,792 3,682,221 (1.1%) UA/CO 5,469 4,858 (11.2%) 3,135,401 2,801,285 (10.7%) WN/FL 4,103 3,526 (14.1%) 3,699,500 3,473,953 (6.1%) International Schedule Comparison AA/US % 393, , % DL/NW % 296, , % UA/CO (1.8%) 369, , % WN/FL % 1,507 22,494 1,392.6% Source: Diio Mi Schedule (Friday Peak day schedule - July 2009 vs July 2014)
13 13 AMERICAN AIRLINES/US AIRWAYS MERGER Merger officially closed December 9, 2013 AA is the surviving brand Senior leadership mainly from US; however, many of the systems and procedures will be from AA Will become largest airline in the world, with hubs in: Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City (LGA/JFK), Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington (DCA) AA has begun to connect the dots across the system TUL, OKC, GRR, DSM, FWA, EVV to US Hubs US Airways is now part of oneworld alliance and BA/IB/AA and the JL/AA joint ventures Large influx of new aircraft sets AA on path to be youngest fleet of legacy airlines Airbus, Boeing and new regional aircraft
14 14 AMERICAN AIRLINES/US AIRWAYS DFW should grow with merger to allow for connecting the dots and large RJs Phoenix hub is mainly a large gauge connect hub from SoCal to East - it will likely evolve in merger Unlikely many or any of these hubs will see wholesale reductions in future as AA & US already closed their superfluous hubs Source: Diio Mi July Peak day defined as Friday 1, Peak Day Departures DFW CLT ORD PHL MIA PHX DCA LAX LGA BOS JFK Peak Day Seats/Departure MIA JFK PHX LAX BOS DFW CLT LGA ORD PHL DCA 84.8
15 15 AMERICAN AIRLINES: MERGER SYNERGIES AA s strength was from Michigan to Mexico, as well as Caribbean US strength primarily in Northeast and Southeast; however, certain Southern California markets also Combined airline has significant gains by connecting the dots from each other s strengths Source: Diio Mi July Peak day defined as Friday
16 16 DELTA AIR LINES Focused on lowering unit costs/customer experience Reducing 50-seat regional jets from 309 to 100 by 2015 Acquiring 88 B717 aircraft from Southwest beginning with 16 aircraft in 2013 and 36 each in 2014/2015 Purchasing 40 CRJ-900 aircraft to be operated by Pinnacle with 12 deliveries in 2013 and 28 in 2014 Purchasing 100 B ER with deliveries Active in route network adjustments MEM is no longer a hub Creating focus city at SEA and shuttle in LAX Purchased a 49% interest in Virgin Atlantic Delta refinery contributing to reduction in overall jet fuel prices
17 17 DELTA AIR LINES Delta has always been, and will always be, primarily about ATL SEA growth on track to pass CVG Aircraft gauge follows closely the % of international departures 1, Peak Day Departures ATL DTW MSP LGA SLC JFK LAX CVG SEA Peak Day Seats/Departure Source: Diio Mi July Peak day defined as Friday 0.0 SEA LAX ATL JFK MSP SLC DTW LGA CVG
18 18 DELTA AIR LINES: SEATTLE BATTLEGROUND For more effective Asia presence, DL has expanded SEA significantly since 2012 Expected to be up to 88 peak-day departures in January 2015, from just 30 in 2011 Growth in historical Alaska Airlines markets, which has led some to suspect ulterior motives December 2014 December 2011 Source: Diio Mi. Example day shown is Saturday
19 19 SOUTHWEST AIRLINES Southwest still integrating AirTran into network Complete integration of AirTran by the end of 2014 In the process of transferring 88 AirTran Boeing 717 aircraft to Delta Southwest international expansion in 2014 Transitioned ATL to point-to-point in fall 2013 New reservations system is the major remaining obstacle implemented by 2015 Plans to keep 2014 capacity in line with 2013 October 2014: Wright Amendment (restricts operations of WN at DAL) will expire Impact?
20 20 SOUTHWEST AIRLINES Historic FL/WN hub cities (BWI, MCO, TPA) reduced with merger synergies ATL reduced from 212 departures to 152 by eliminating significant connecting traffic Many reductions fund new flying in major Northeast markets like BOS, EWR, LGA, and DCA Peak Day Departures MDW LAS BWI DEN PHX HOU ATL DAL LAX MCO OAK SAN STL BNA TPA Source: Diio Mi July Peak day defined as Friday
21 21 SOUTHWEST AIRLINES: LOVE FIELD Wright Amendment limitations reduced in October 2014 Southwest unable to grow more than ~150 departures due to 16 gate limitation Southwest had parity or more frequency in most markets in 2013 New schedule removes significant frequency to fund new flying New/legacy routes have significantly less parity with AA than before What will WN s performance be without it s schedule advantage? Source: Diio Mi. Peak day defined as Friday Departures Destination WN Dec-13 WN Dec-14 AA Dec-14 ABQ AMA ATL AUS BHM BNA BWI DCA DEN ELP FLL HOU/IAH ICT LAS LAX LBB LGA LIT MAF MCI MCO MDW/ORD MSY OKC PHX SAN SAT SNA STL TPA TUL TOTAL
22 22 UNITED AIRLINES Pilot scope contract to allow for additional large regional jets Increase large regional aircraft to 255 by seaters & seaters Hard cap of 450 regional aircraft will require reduction of 50-seat aircraft (300+ today) Adding 70 ERJ-175 (76-seat, dual class) beginning in 2014 with deliveries in 2014/2015 Continuing with merger integration - Wall Street and unions have publicly questioned UA s performance in comparison to AA & DL
23 23 UNITED AIRLINES United not dominated by one hub like AA/DL Top 4 hubs have major competition from another legacy Competition from other legacies and LCC s have likely affected UA s financial performance Peak Day Departures ORD IAH DEN EWR SFO IAD LAX CLE Peak Day Seats/Departure Source: Diio Mi July Peak day defined as Friday 0 SFO LAX EWR IAH IAD DEN ORD CLE
24 LOW-COST/ULTRA LOW-COST AIRLINE TRENDS
25 25 LCC, ULCC, AND EVERYONE ELSE Much of the growth in the industry is in the LCC, ULCC and regional airlines LCCs = JetBlue, Virgin America ULCCs = Frontier, Spirit Regional = Alaska, Hawaiian
26 26 ALASKA AIRLINES Consistently one of the more profitable of the major airlines Majority of flying based in SEA/PDX, but has made overtures to focus cities in California Major push over past few years into Hawaii Large order for more Boeing aircraft ERS and 737MAX Added flying to SLC in response to DL s growth in SLC Peak Day Departures SEA PDX ANC LAX SAN GEG Source: Diio Mi
27 27 ALLEGIANT Reconfigured 150-seat MD-80 aircraft to 166-seat Added six Boeing 757 aircraft to facilitate Hawaii service Adding Airbus A319/A320 to the fleet (19 total by 2015) Plans to add Mexico and Caribbean service in 2015 Started moving into larger markets such as OKC, TUL, LIT, ISP, SYR & CMH Experimenting with route additions in Florida (PGD/SFB) March 2014 Weekly Departures LAS SFB AZA PIE PGD BLI CID FSD Source: Diio Mi
28 28 FRONTIER AIRLINES PURCHASED F9 previously owned by Republic Airways Holdings Purchased by Indigo Partners LLC in Dec 2013 Phoenix-based private-equity firm Purchase finalized Plans to transform F9 into an ultra low-cost carrier Likely to be transformed more like Spirit Less Denver centric in the future Peak Day Departures DEN IAD TTN
29 29 VIRGIN, JETBLUE & SPIRIT Virgin America Profit challenged and has slowed growth tremendously JetBlue Airways Slowed growth from historical numbers Continues growth mainly to Caribbean & Latin America Plans extensive growth in FLL Spirit Airlines Efficient churner of schedule to mine for new profitable opportunities in larger markets Does not operate from many smaller airports, mainly primary airports in large metro areas Source: Diio Mi
30 FUTURE TRENDS
31 31 LEGACY IMPACTS American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and Southwest Airlines Legacy airlines are all stagnant or shrinking in past 3 years domestically Concentration on international growth for the foreseeable future Integration of mergers will continue to be a primary trend over next few years WN/FL AA/US UA/CO
32 32 REGIONAL IMPACTS Pilot staffing issues since FAR 117 changes in 2013 & 2014 Small Part 121 airlines are bearing brunt of problems now Impacted UA s decision to close CLE hub Republic decision to shutter Chautauqua subsidiary Understand there is an impact to schedules this summer across the board Aircraft changes coming Large regional jets are proliferating, mainly with 76-seats Small regional jets are being parked due to costprohibitive maintenance
33 33 WHERE ARE THE NEW GUYS? High barriers to entry for new airlines No longer will $3M and a used start an airline Capitalization requirements are now in the $100Ms for a startup Oligopoly in the domestic market greatly increases difficulty for new entrants
34 34 AIRLINE EXPECTATIONS Airlines are shrinking or stagnant Addition by subtraction for the majors Airlines expect to make money these days No longer just system profitable Airlines expect segment profits (Ex. 10% margin minimum for Alaska) No magic number for target load factor In the race to lower unit costs (CASM), a bump and flush of larger aircraft occurring for mainline and regional airlines
35 SUMMARY
36 36 SUMMARY Capacity Constraint and Addition by Subtraction now key at legacy airlines Transitioning to larger aircraft across the board LCC/ULCC is where majority of growth is coming from domestically Pilot issues could impact airlines for foreseeable future
37 Thank You 2014 Mead & Hunt, Inc. Mead & Hunt, Inc.: Jeffrey Hartz Senior Consultant 959 Redcedar Way Coppell, Texas Phone:
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