US Airline Competition and Consolidation Pt Peter P. Belobaba

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1 US Airline Competition and Consolidation 2010 Pt Peter P. Belobaba b November 4,

2 US Airline ili Industry Performance Review: A roller coaster decade Rapid growth of LCCs and intense fare competition Restructuring, cost cutting and productivity improvements After $40 billion in losses a brief return to profits Fuel shock and financial meltdown in 2008 Return to profitability in 2010 and beyond How much room to cut cost or improve productivity? Can capacity discipline be maintained? Have LCCs reached their peak in US domestic markets? 1

3 $25,000 US Industry Profits in after $40B of Losses ; More Losses in 2008 and 2009 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 (USD Millions) $0 ($5,000) Oper Profit Net tprofit ($10,000) ($15,000) ($20,000) ($25,000) ($30,000) Source: ATA data 2

4 US Carrier Financial i Results 2009 Source: Airline Business, March

5 US Carriers Cumulative NtI Net Income Q1 Q3 Q USD Millions Net Profit Source: Airline Business 4

6 30% US Carrier RPM Traffic Share % 26.0% 20% 19.4% 15% 16.0% 12.7% 11.8% 10% 9.2% 5% 4.1% 30% 3.0% 29% 2.9% 2.8% 2.0% 1.3% 0% Source: Aviation Daily, 1/21/2010 5

7 US Legacy and Low Cost Airlines ili Network Legacy Carriers Low Cost Carriers AA American Airlines UA United Air Lines DL Delta Air Lines (incl. NW) CO Continental Airlines US US Airways (incl. HP) WN Southwest Airlines B6 JetBlue Airways FL AirTran Airways F9 Frontier Airlines VX Virgin America Legacy group carried 67% of total US airline traffic in These airlines carried another 17% of total US traffic (RPMs).

8 Unit itcosts (excl. Transport Rltd )S Related ) Spiked din CASM Ex Transport ($/ASM) /ASM $/ ` NLC LCC 7

9 Non LaborUnitCost Difference StillAbout1 Cent The Structural Gap CASM Non-labor ($/ASM) $/A /ASM ` NLC LCC 8

10 Lb Labor Unit itcosts Increasing Again for Both thsectors CASM Labor ($/ASM) $/A ASM NLC LCC 9

11 Aircraft Utilization Decreased din 2008 and Block-H Hours per Ai ircraft Day NLC LCC 10

12 LCC Employee Productivity it Still 15% Higher than NLCs 3,100,000 2,900,000 ASM per Empoly yee 2,700,000 2,500,000 2,300,000 2,100, ,900,000 1,700,000 1,500, NLC LCC 11

13 Gap in Salaries/Benefits Sl per Employee Disappeared in ,000 90,000 80,000 USD per Employee e 70, ,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, NLC LCC 12

14 US Domestic Traffic and Capacity Growth thby Year (2.0) Traffic (RPM) Capacity (ASM) (4.0) (6.0) (8.0) (10.0) Source: Air Transport Association 13

15 Domestic Mainline Carrier CapacityDown 28% Since 2000; Total Domestic ASMs Still 16% Lower 650 llions US Domest tic ASMs in Mi Mainline Domestic Capacity Regional Carrier Capacity 14

16 Nt Network kcarriers Have Cut tdomestic Capacity 15

17 LCC Domestic Capacity Has Grown, But tleveling Off 16

18 Regional Partners Carry An Increasing Proportion of Decreased Domestic Passenger Traffic RPMs in Millio ons Domestic Mainline Domestic Capacity Regional Carrier Capacity 17

19 Pre Downturn, CapacityReductionWas Having a Positive Effect on Unit Revenue Measures PRASM ( ) -- Domestic + Express 12 Months Ended Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan Source: Air Transport Association 18

20 LCCs Carry 1 in 3 US Domestic Passengers LCC Market Share is still growing g but leveling off, reaching 34% of total US domestic passengers in

21 LCC Share of Domestic RPMs is Approaching 25% 20

22 Domestic Market Concentration Virtually Unchanged Merged Southwest Larger than Delta and United in Domestic Capacity Domestic ASM Share Domestic ASM Share First Quarter 2000 Second Quarter 2009 DL 16% WN + FL 18% All Other 54% UA 15% All Other 49% CO + UA 17% AA 15% NW + DL 16% Notes: Mainline only. Exludes Regional Operations. 21

23 Southwest s s Recent Growth HasOnly Been Into the Largest Markets Anchorage Largest Metro Areas Without Southwest Service San Francisco Honolulu Monterey San Louis Obispo ox Santa Barbara Eugene Fresno Bakersfield Population 1 Million + Population 500,000 1 Million Population Less Than 500,000 Denver X Colorado Springs Wichita X Burlington Minneapolis Syracuse Rochester Grand X Boston Milwaukee MilX Rapids Madisonwauee Flint Lansing Pittsburgh Westchester Co. South Toledo X XNew York EWR/JFK/LGA Des Moines Akron Moline Bend Ft. Wayne Atlantic City X Dayton Charleston Washington Springfield Richmond Greensboro Knoxville Charlotte Memphis Knoxville Greenville Columbia Myrtle Beach Gulfport Pensacola Atlanta Tallahassee Sarasota Charleston Savannah 22

24 SouthwesthasIncreasedDomestic has SharethroughGrowthin Capacity (ASM) Share at Below Average Load Factors 23

25 Southwest Share Gap Narrowed in 2009 Due to Extensive Marketing of No Ancillary Fees? Southwest's Share Gap SHARE GAP = RPM SHARE ASM SHARE

26 Prospects for Sustained US Airline ili Profitability Exogenous forces remain the primary drivers of profit Strong economic recovery is critical to the demand/revenue side Fuel prices are climbing, continue to be the greatest wild card Cost and productivity i gains have leveled l off and/or reversed Non fuel and especially labor unit costs increasing for NLCs and LCCs Upcoming labor negotiations will be particularly difficult Return to profitability largely due to capacity management Shifts by NLCs to international flying; lower domestic capacity overall Consolidation through h mergers in both sectors LCCs continue to grow in largest markets, albeit more slowly Their 2011+capacity decisions will greatlyaffectaffect industry performance 25

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