AIR BERLIN PLC FY 2010 Analysts and Investors Conference

Transcription

1 AIR BERLIN PLC FY Analysts and Investors Conference Berlin, 24 March 2011

2 2 AGENDA page A. Overview Decision for an alliance 3 B. Performance C. Outlook 2011 Navigating through a difficult environment Challenge continues 9 28

3 3 A. Overview Decision for an alliance

4 PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW airberlin achieved most of the goals for Development of the airberlin group PAX [m] GOALS FOR Capacity [m] Passenger growth Adjusting capacity as rep. PF act. Increased revenue Increasing EBIT (unadjusted) - as rep. PF act. Revenue [EUR m] Reducing net debt EBIT [EUR m] 3, , ,723.6 Net debt [EUR m] as rep. PF act as rep. PF -9.3 act. as rep. act.* PF: pro forma airberlin group (incl. NIKI 2H & FY X3) * EUR 400m excl. NIKI 4

5 PASSENGER DEVELOPMENT #6 in the European air travel market counted by passengers transported main driver is the short-haul business traffic airberlin`s passenger growth impacted by TUIfly City business & NIKI Passenger in FY 1) [m] Long-term passenger development 2) CAGR: +20% Lufthansa Group 90 Ryanair Air France/KLM British Airways & Iberia easyjet airberlin Turkish Airlines Scandinavian Airlines Alitalia Aeroflot Intercont Europe Domestic 1) 01/01/-12/31/; according to company websites (except Alitalia) 2) Pax incl. dba 09/06, LTU 08/07, belair 11/07, Tuifly 10/25/09, NIKI 07/10 5

6 6 MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS airberlin s growth path in ff. Summer Berlin HUB airberlin passengers have access to more than 6,000 weekly connections in six waves with app. 22 aircraft from/to Berlin April Integration of LTU Spring 2012 Expected joining into oneworld June Increase in shareholding in NIKI to 49.9% Winter Code share with American Airlines & Finnair Summer 2011 Code share with British Airways & Iberia November Capital increase & Buyback Buy back of convertible bond issued in Placement of new bond

7 INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT The market development has recovered from the economic and environmental downturns in the first half of Pax development across the industry year-on-year* [%] Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 3% 3% 1% 5% 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 6% 5% 9% 5% 9% 7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 3% 1% -1% -16% -17% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec airberlin AEA Source: AEA (region Geographical Europe and Domestic) * PF,e.g. incl. NIKI from 07/01 7

8 MARKET SHARE airberlin s market share at selected areas in DACH and PMI Market share and development in selected catchment areas 1) GERMAN-LANGUAGE AREAS #1 HAJ 27.0% #1 DUS (-2.8%p) 35.3% (-1.6%p) #2 CGN 28.7% (-3.3%p) # 4 #1 STR 22.0% (+1.8%p) #2 HAM 27.8 % (-0.5%p) #1 TXL 46.6% (+0.2%p) #1 NUE 58.7% (-0.8%p) HUB PMI #2 ZRH 9.0% (+1.4%p) # 2 #2 MUC 12.4 % (-0.6%p) #2 VIE 17.9% (+1.0%p) #1 PMI 33.0% (+1.0%p) # 1 DACH = Germany, Austria, Switzerland 8

9 9 B. Performance Navigating through a difficult environment

10 FINANCIAL RESULT 1/2 Financial result REVENUE [m] EBITDAR [m] Margin [%] Revenue increase compared to PF due to higher passenger number Revenue development negatively impacted by external factors 3,240.3 as rep % 3,684.9 PF +1.1% 3,723.6 act. Revenue growth compared to PF at constant EBITDAR margin achieved as rep % PF +1.9% act. EBIT [m] Margin [%] Higher cost of a/c ownership due to larger fleet and higher capacity brought EBIT down % % NET PROFIT/LOSS [m] Drop in operating result and change in financial result brought net result down (convertible buy-back) as rep. PF act. as rep. PF act. * pro forma (PF): incl. NIKI 2H & FY TUIfly city ops 10

11 OVERVIEW the overall economy recovered from the recession in, but the airlines were faced with new unforeseen challenges In the world economy has brightly recovered. Emerging markets improved stronger than the developed countries. The Euro zone, especially the Mediterranean area, were stressed with high national debt and consequently recovered less The German price adjusted GDP improved by +3.6% compared to previous year, however airberlin could not profit from this positive economic development Several external factors such as the hard winter, the volcano explosion, ATC strikes, tariff negotiations and threat of strikes, strikes in Spain brought revenue constantly down, costs up and made it almost impossible to predict the remaining months of the year outstanding Q1 Due to the hard winter /10 the RPKs of all IATA airlines could only be increased by 4.3% even though compared to the very poor performance in Q2 The volcano in Iceland and its relating partial air sector closure led to an increase of only 3.3% in RPKs of the IATA carriers for the first half Q3 ATC strikes in August included higher costs for navigation and moreover app. 60,000 IATA flights had to be cancelled Q4 The fairly early start of the winter in the second half of the year again brought costs such as airport charges for deicing and fuel up and additional many flights were delayed and cancelled All of these circumstances included unforeseen revenue cuts and cost increases Source: Statistische Bundesamt 11

12 12 FINANCIAL RESULT 2/2 Adjusted EBIT EBIT FY Adjustment step up NIKI Adjustment volcano Adjustment ATC situation (higher fuel burn, flight cancellations, compensation payments, subcharter costs etc.) adjusted EBIT FY

13 TOPLINE 1/4 Operating development Seats [m] ASK [bn] Passengers [m] Seat load factor [%] +21.1% +4.7% +20.4% +3.8% -0.5%p. -0.7%p as rep. PF act. as rep. PF act. as rep. PF act. Growth in Berlin hub and in Vienna Passenger number grew by 3.8% year-on-year pro forma and more than 20% compared to as reported Capacity utilization lower than last year 1) Flight revenue per passenger excl. Airport tax revenue and service charge * pro forma (PF): incl. NIKI 2H & FY TUIfly city ops 13

14 TOPLINE 2/4 airberlin's revenue increased by 1.1% in compared to previous year on a pro forma basis Revenue split [EUR m] Change from PF +4.0% -3.6% +1.3% -22.2% +2.2% +1.1% Charter revenue down due to volcano impact 1, , ,723.6 Recovery in cargo business drove increase in other revenue 2,245.9 Seat only Charter Flight revenue Onboard sales Other revenue Total revenue * pro forma (PF): incl. NIKI 2H & FY TUIfly city ops 14

15 TOPLINE 3/4 KPI development in business segments Operational performance by business segment pro forma vs. actual DOMESTIC EURO SCHEDULE EURO CHARTER INTERCONT TOTAL Demand FY PF FY FY PF FY FY PF FY FY PF FY FY PF FY Pax % % % % % SLF Supply Seats % % % % % ASK % % % % % Pax in m, SLF n %, Seats in m, ASK in bn * pro forma (PF): incl. NIKI 2H & FY TUIfly city ops 15

16 TOPLINE 4/4 Operating development Flight revenue per passenger Yield [EUR] Seat Load factor [%] Total revenue per seat kilometer RASK [EUR ct] % %p. -0.7%p % wie berichtet PF Ist as rep. PF act. as rep. PF act. Lower yield and seat load factor compared with pro forma led to lower RASK * pro forma (PF): incl. NIKI 2H & FY TUIfly city ops 16

17 17 CORPORATES 24.8% increase in company agreements compared to previous year led to strong revenue growth Development of company agreements No. of company agreements Number of company agreements rose by 37 in Q ,441 airberlin benefits from recovery in business travel 314 5,942 business point agreements (SME-program) 348 Revenue improved by more than EUR 100m

18 18 FREQUENT FLYER PROGRAM topbonus airberlin s frequent flyer program Member development of topbonus since April 2006 Members [m] Compound average growth: +44.6% As of December, there were over 2.4m topbonus members Higher number of members makes the program more attractive for affiliate partners Relaunch of topbonus program in April 1.5 New features like double miles on favorite routes As a result, clear continuous increase over the past year Number of topbonus passengers grew over proportional compared to non topbonus passengers. 0.0 Apr 06 Dec 10 vs. : +11.9% topbonus pax +3.8 % pax airberlin group

19 OPERATING EXPENSES 1/4 Total operating expenses with higher cost in Q4 caused by winter Development of expenses, FY * vs. FY actual [EUR m] Direct operating expenses 1) Personnel expenses 2) Other operating expenses 2) +0.7% 2, ,142.4 Airport charges 1, % % MRO Fuel Insurance Marketing Commission Navigation Onboard service Others Others as rep. PF act. as rep. PF act. Wages, salaries and benefits as rep. PF act. 1) excl. leasing and depreciations 2) excl. CMIO * pro forma (PF): incl. NIKI 2H & FY TUIfly city ops 19

20 OPERATING EXPENSES 2/4 Development and breakdown of Cost per ASK Cost/ASK incl. fuel [EUR ct.] Cost/ASK excl. fuel [EUR ct.] -1.9% Others 25.3% 24.8% 24.9% -0.7% Successful cost measures from Jump helped to improve CASK Nevertheless some cost line items heavily impacted by external factors Airport charges 25.1% 26.2% 26.5% Others % % % Pers. Exp. Navigation 15.9% 7.9% 14.4% 8.1% 14.9% 8.7% Airport charges 33.9% 35.6% 35.3% Fuel 25.8% 26.4% 24.9% Pers. Exp. Navigation 21.4% 10.7% 19.6% 11.0% 19.9% 11.6% as rep. PF act. as rep. PF act. 1) excl. leasing and depreciations 2) excl. CMIO * pro forma (PF): incl. NIKI 2H & FY TUIfly city ops) 20

21 OPERATING EXPENSES 3/4 Differentiated by segments, unit costs decreased Positive development on a per passenger basis Structural impact on CASK (based on DB II costs 1) ), vs. [EUR ct.] ASK development [m] CASK 1) Euro & Dom. CASK 1) Intercont PAX [m] % % +0.04% % % -2.5% % -3.9% 80.7% +4.8% 81.5% 86.0% 85.4% % % 82.6% 83.1% PF PF PF Intercont Euro and Domestic Operating personnel costs Variable sales & production costs 1) Based on internal margin II (DB II) costs = sales & production costs without A/C & overhead costs 21

22 22 HEDGING Successful airberlin hedging policy and fuel efficiency measures overcompensated worse FX rate and higher production Fuel price development [USD/t] P&L effect [EUR m] Hedge level [%] PF , Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Fuel Cost PF Production Fuel Efficiency Fuel Price fx rate Fuel Cost AB mixed price Market price AB mixed price Market price

23 OPERATING EXPENSES 4/4 Cost of aircraft ownership Development of expenses, FY * vs. FY actual [EUR m] Lease & CMIO expenses CMIO Leases Depreciation 5.7% Number of a/c grew by 4% compared to pro forma Lease expenses grew in line Total cost of aircraft ownership grew by 8.5% Largest part of deliveries in was financed through operating leases, hence these grew by 11.5% as rep. PF act. as rep. PF act. 1) excl. leasing and depreciations 2) excl. CMIO * pro forma (PF): incl. NIKI 2H & FY TUIfly city ops 23

24 FLEET Fleet compared to end of increased due to NIKI Fleet development 1) Average fleet age Q400 E-190 B737 family A330 family A320 family On average plus 11% aircraft compared to end of due to integration of NIKI Including NIKI the fleet as per end grows by 4% In fleet production increased by 5% on narrow body fleet and 7% on wide body fleet 12/31/ Additions Disposals 12/31/ 1) Aircraft in operation in airberlin group 24

25 25 FINANCIAL RESULT In the financial result was EUR 82m weaker than driven by extraordinary items adjusted the difference is EUR 17.5m Breakdown of financial result [EUR m] Interest income Interest expense FX expenses Extraordinary Total % % -91.5% % -91.5%

26 26 BALANCE SHEET Balance sheet ratios Balance sheet structure, Dec. 31, vs. Dec. 31, [EUR m] B/S as of Dec 31, B/S as of Dec 31, Non-current assets Other current assets Liquid assets 2,412 68% 17% 15% 25% 75% Equity Debt Non-current assets Other current assets Liquid assets 2,370 64% 19% 17% 21% 79% Equity Debt Equity ratio dropped by 4.0%pts due to net loss for full year Cash position increased due to sale of aircraft (excess capacity) and issuance of bond Net Debt decreased due to sale of aircraft (excl. NIKI net debt is at app. EUR 400m) Net debt: 574 Net debt: 489

27 SUPPLY DEMAND PRO FORMA On pro forma basis (incl. FY NIKI), airberlin produced a 4.3% higher number of seats with 3.9% more pax EBIT EUR -15.3m EBIT bridge as reported to pro forma [EUR m] Total Revenue [EURm] 3, ,850.2 OPERATIONAL FIGURES Pax [m] SLF [%] EBIT 3.9% -0.3%p. margin [%] PF PF Seats [m] 4.4% ASK [bn] 3.8% as rep. Revenue DOC Personnel OOE a/c costs pro forma PF PF 1) Including other operating income * pro forma (PF): incl. FY NIKI 27

28 28 C. Outlook 2011 Challenge continues

29 29 OUTLOOK Selective growth opportunities for airberlin in 2011 Uncertain economic outlook especially due to the war in North Africa Environment 2011 OPPORTUNITIES Sound recovery in economy is driving demand for business travel Increase in consumer confidence and drop in unemployment is driving demand for leisure travel Passenger numbers are growing Improved operational performance due to the integration of LTU New code share partners in 2011 airberlin 2011 #2 player in German domestic market and #6 in Europe Good and/or stable demand in business travel and leisure travel Attractive codeshares with big European partners Key destinations (like Palma) with good development Aviation tax leads to pressure on yields Fuel price increase driving cost pressure Weak start into Q1 due to crisis in North Africa RISKS Unpredictable impact from introduction of aviation tax on demand Rising fuel price brings need to increase prices further Instable political situation in touristic destinations (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco) Unclear outcome of situation in Japan on macro-economic development

30 Economic and political crisis in North Africa Situation in North Africa and the increase in oil price Political escalation in charter regions of North Africa Oil price development Fuel surcharge increased by Seat-only: Domestic Medium-haul Long-haul Tour operator: Charter short medium-haul Charter long medium-haul Charter long-haul

31 31 INTEGRATION 1/2 Integration of LTU and maintenance for 04/01/2011 on track savings from smoother operation expected Integration flight operations LTU airberlin airberlin Berlin maintenance Dusseldorf airberlin Technik Cologne Date of Integration on 01 April 2011 as scheduled Administrative approval granted (Luftfahrtbundesamt, traffic rights) Consent with employment bodies reached and all necessary agreements signed Savings through reduced complexity elimination of duplicate structures simplification of operation

32 INTEGRATION 2/2 Fair solutions for employees and company in collective agreements reached salary contracts working conditions Cockpit LTU AB pay freeze for 2011 under negotiation slight adaptions Streamlined working conditions Enlarged Cockpitcrews on long haul flights > nautic miles 1) Agreement till 12/2012 Cabin LTU AB pay freeze for 2011 under negotiation slight adaptions in negotiation Agreement till 12/2013 Groundstaff LTU AB 2) pay freeze for 2011 pay freeze for 2011 no changes No changes Agreement till 12/2012 tariff agreement signed verbal agreement open 1) beginning in May ) no Tariff Agreement 3) incl. Belair cockpit and cabin each EUR 0.2m 32

33 33 I TOPLINE /5 Topline targets 2011 Topline planning at a glance DOMESTIC EURO SCHEDULE EURO CHARTER INTERCONT Strengthening domestic business Core area will be the Spain market Challenge for 2011 Focused activities for future growth GOAL Seats: SLF: Pax: > 46m (+ > 2%) 78.5% (+ > 1%p.) 36.5m (+ > 4%) ASK: 63.5bn (+ > 4% )

34 34 I TOPLINE /5 airberlin stays nearly stable in its domestic network Development and explanations DOMESTIC PAX [m] Seats [m] SLF [%] >2 % stable PF 2011 PF 2011 PF Strengthening German network with additional connections from STR and CGN

35 I TOPLINE /5 Focus on growth in Euro Schedule Full integration of NIKI operation Development and explanations EURO SCHEDULE PAX [m] Seats [m] SLF [%] >5 % >2 % PF 2011 PF 2011 PF 2011 New routes to Austrian and Italian cities Extension of hub BER as basis for new airport BBI Optimization and increase of PMI hub Strong growth for NIKI in Vienna PF: including full year NIKI and TUIfly city-ops 35

36 I TOPLINE /5 Coming back to normal level at tourist destinations Development and explanations EURO CHARTER PAX [m] Seats [m] SLF [%] >3 % >3 % PF 2011 PF 2011 PF 2011 After weak start in Q1 (North Africa) improving of tour operator business expected in Q2 and Q3 Key destinations like Spain show healthy demand Long-haul touristic with good demand PF: including full year NIKI and TUIfly city-ops 36

37 I TOPLINE /5 Focus on profitable long-haul business Development and explanations INTERCONT PAX [m] Seats [m] SLF [%] >15% >15% PF 2011 PF 2011 PF 2011 Focus mainly on touristic routes New connection to San Francisco and increase in various frequencies (ex.: Vancouver, Los Angeles) to round up North-America portfolio New service Berlin Tegel to New York (JFK) with good acceptance in the market PF: including full year NIKI and TUIfly city-ops 37

38 38 NEW SEATS 1/2 A New Business class seat Slope at 170 fully automatc lie-flat In-seat power for laptops etc. Manufacturer: Contour/Britax

39 39 NEW SEATS 2/2 A New Economy seat Light-weight construction seats (type ECO-01) Manufacturer: ZIM Flugsitz GmbH Extended living space through thinner back rest Head rest 4 times adjustable; Ears adjustable, coat hanger, literature pocket Recline of 6 Through a lower base weight, airberlin saves app. 575 kg weight per aircraft Reduction of fuel burn of app. 800 tons per year

40 FUEL airberlin follows its hedging policy in 2011 Fuel hedging profile and fuel price development, 2011 vs. Hedging profile [%] Price 1) development [USD/t] [%] Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1,100 1,050 1, [USD/t] Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Hedge rate 2011 Hedge rate Hedge price 2011 Hedge price Mixed rate 2011 Forward curve 1) excl. differentials as of March 23 rd,

41 DOLLAR Dollar hedging Dollar hedging profile and FX rate development, 2011 vs. Hedging profile [%] FX rate development [USD/EUR] [%] [USD/EUR] Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Hedge rate 2011 Hedge rate Hedge price 2011 Hedge price Mixed rate 2011 Forward curve as of March 23 rd,

42 FLEET Fleet compared to end of 2011 Fleet development 1) Average fleet age Q400 E-190 B737 family A330 family A320 family new deliveries from order book (fully financed) 2 used A330 coming in to support longhaul operation Net increase in fleet size of 2 aircraft Total cost of aircraft ownership is expected to increase by app. 9% mainly driven by USD and also fleet growth 12/31/ Net changes 12/31/2011 1) Aircraft in operation in airberlin group 42

43 OPERATING EXPENSES Cost per ASK Structural impact on CASK ASK development [m] CASK 1) incl. fuel [EUR ct.] CASK 1) excl. fuel [EUR ct.] +5.4% % +> 15.0% % > 5% % +> 3.0% 80.4% PF 2011 PF 2011 PF 2011 Intercont Euro and Domestic Slight increase 1) excl. leasing, CMIO and depreciations 43

44 44 ACCELERATE Accelerate targeted to contribute over EUR 100m in 2011 Further optimization and cost reduction Overview Accelerate 2011 Direct operating costs Personnel costs Other operating costs A/C costs TOPICS AIRPORTS CREW COST OF SALES A/C UTILIZATION FUEL MRO/ OVERHEAD MRO $$ A/C SALES INFLIGHT Vertrag OTHER MEASURES Ongoing negotiations and stricter monitoring of SLAs Fuel saving measures also on NIKI and Q400 fleet Harmonizing product group-wide Increasing crew productivity, e.g. via reducing winter idle costs Replacing lease by own personnel Slowing down recruiting activities Optimizing and streamlining processes Improving performance, e.g. via hub control centers Reducing provisions and system fees Lease out of surplus aircraft Shifting deliveries to later periods

45 45 ALLIANCE airberlin is to join oneworld, the world s leading quality airline alliance Joining oneworld airberlin joins destinations in 39 countries Fleet of 169 aircraft (incl. NIKI) 719 flights per day 33.6 m passengers per year the oneworld alliance 900 destinations in nearly 150 countries Combined fleet of 2,500 aircraft 9,500 flights per day 340m passengers per year 550+ airport lounges 2011 Expansion of codeshare with British Airways and Iberia effected summer 2011

46 46 COMMERCIAL STEERING 1/4 Improved commercial steering and business intelligence are expected to provide up to EUR 120m revenue benefit once fully implemented Steady state benefits Contributing effects 1 Code sharing / interline Enabled by ticketed environment No overlap with oneworld business case Code sharing / interline (non-ow) Product and pricing enhancements > EUR 120m Customer experience Point of sale, round-trip pricing Streamlined sales/ticketing/airport processes Increased customer convenience and loyalty Differential pricing based on POS strength Pricing aligned with origin market competitive fare levels/dynamics Commercial steering / revenue management 4 5 Elasticity/ up-sell Fenced fare products/ fare mix optimization Optimize based on customer willingness to pay Protect against yield erosion in LCC markets Single inventory allows multiple fare rules Revenue Management System enables more accurate demand forecast & seat optimization

47 47 COMMERCIAL STEERING 2/4 Effects are driven by better commercial steering of an integrated inventory, reservations and RM system with added capabilities to price, optimize and control 1 Code sharing / interline 3 Point-of-sale (PoS) / round-trip pricing Code sharing can drive meaningful incremental revenue by leveraging a partner s PoS presence and network feed Integrated inventory and advanced RMS / pricing capabilities support code share / interline revenue benefit Increased connectivity to additional airline partners (overlap-free to oneworld benefits) increases revenue opportunities across all channels Current fares competitive for German origin demand, but not for lower-priced origins With round-trip PoS pricing, AB can stimulate trial and demand without diluting Germany-origin revenue Eliminating O/W arbitrage offers additional opportunity 4 Elasticity / up-sell 2 Customer experience Integrated inventory and DCS provides enhanced customer experience across channels and touchpoints: Sales/ticketing Call center Check-in Online self service Top Bonus Refunds Price elasticity-based commercial steering will help to manage fare availability closer to market willingness to pay Fare products and customer segment needs matched more closely to generate additional value from less price-sensitive customers Protection against downward price spiral in markets with strong LCC competition

48 48 COMMERCIAL STEERING 3/4 Effects are driven by better commercial steering of an integrated inventory, reservations and RM system with added capabilities to price, optimize and control 5 Fenced fare products/ fare mix optimization Single inventory allows multiple fare rules Multiple fenced fare products enable to Taylor products to customer preferences Segment demand more in line with customer needs and price sensitivity Drive customer-initiated up-sell Reduce spill that results from premature closure of lower inventory classes More systematic approach to forecasting, optimization and control of supply and demand Better pricing, capacity management and commercial control in particular on high-demand flights with higher share of connecting passengers

49 49 COMMERCIAL STEERING 4/4 Industry case studies provide benchmark for estimated revenue gains Industry benchmark cases Estimates it achieved 6%-7% additional revenue from its DINAMO Yield Management System: ~ USD 1bn / year Achieved 4%-5% additional revenue from revenue management systems Estimated 4%-5% revenue lift from improvements in demand management Claim that PROS Hybrid Forecasting and Optimization technology typically leads to incremental revenue within the range of 2%-5% Airlines and other travel & transportation companies have already achieved a 4-7% revenue improvement from more sophisticated commercial steering, business intelligence and revenue management systems and practices

50 50 OUTLOOK Despite uncertain environment airberlin plans to increase its result Expectations for fiscal year 2011 Operational performance Result Balance sheet A L Capacity Growth in selected European areas and on intercont destinations Utilizing capacity within optimized hub concept Capacity utilization and income Increasing load expected along with slightly improving yields Revenue Growth in revenue expected Increase in fuel price will be passed on Expenses Stringent cost control to offset price increases Result Positive EBIT targeted for 2011 Assets Stabilizing cash on current level Liabilities Further actions planned to stabilize net debt Positive EBIT for 2011 is key target, but quantifying is currently difficult due to culmination of external factors

51 Thank you for your attention.