MIT ICAT. Air Transportation Infrastructure Systems Worldwide; Opportunities for Infrastructure and Technology Improvements

Transcription

1 Air Transportation Infrastructure Systems Worldwide; Opportunities for Infrastructure and Technology Improvements Philippe A. Bonnefoy R. John Hansman Global Airline Industry Program - Industry Advisory Board Meeting Massachusetts Institute of Technology Nov. 6 th 2008

2 Motivation & Research Objectives Introduction Increasing demand for air transportation Key air transportation infrastructure constraints (i.e. capacity) Implications: congestion, degradation of the passengers quality of travel experience, economic impacts. Air transportation system is a vital underlying infrastructure of a country s economy Analyze the characteristics and capabilities of national airport networks worldwide. Evaluate the opportunities and the implications of next generation air transportation technologies to improve the access to these airport systems. Revenue Passenger Kilometers (billion) 1,500 1,250 1, Historical Evolution of Passenger Traffic (Revenue Passenger Kilometers - RPKs) from 1971 to 2007 North America Europe Asia-Pacific Latin America Middle East Africa Data sources: ICAO ( ) and IATA ( ) 2

3 Introduction Passenger Transport Activity (Revenue Passenger Kilometer per capita) vs. GDP per capita 100,000 Passenger-Kilometers per Capita 10,000 1, Singapore United States New Zealand Australia Cyprus Ireland Malta Canada Europe Germany Russian Fed. Malaysia Portugal Switzerland Greece South Africa Mexico Italy Hungary Brazil Belgium Poland Indonesia India China Size proportional to population GDP per capita Thousands Data sources: ICAO (2005), CIA (2005) 3

4 4 Approach Research Approach & Methodology Analyzed of the current characteristics and the capabilities of the national airport networks of 190 countries worldwide, Data sources: Worldwide airport database; Digital Aeronautical Flight Information File (DAFIF 2005), Population and aggregate airport data from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) World Fact Book database (CIA 2006). Performed a detailed multiple case study analysis of the national airport networks from 8 countries Countries selected based on their characteristics and potential for improvement (identified in phase 1 of the approach), Cases illustrate and contrast the opportunities and the implications of these technologies and capabilities across different types of air transportation systems, Wide array of detailed population distribution databases, Country specific information was used in each case study. Reviewed and analyzed next generation air transportation system technologies and capabilities Literature review, Discussion of the implications for potential improvements identified in phase 1 and 2.

5 Research Approach & Methodology Framework for Analyzing Airport Infrastructure Capabilities and Potential for Improvements Airport Network Characteristics Capabilities Enabled Operations Airport Distribution Density of the Airport Network Overall Airport Network Airport Runway Capabilities Paved runway Runway length Jet Operations Regional Jet & Narrow Bodies Operations Airport Approach Capabilities Airport Capabilities Runway lights Airport Weather & Status information (ASOS/ATIS) Tower Day & Night Operations Airport Weather Awareness Separation & Conflict Avoidance ILS / Precision App. IFR Operations Radar Coverage Sequencing & High Capacity 5

6 World Airport Network Overview of World Airport Network World airport network in numbers: 45,813 airports, 14,000 airports with at least one paved runway, 6,750 airports with at least one paved runway longer than 5,000 ft, 950 airports with at least one paved runway longer than 10,000 ft. Data source: DAFIF (2005) 6

7 Analyses of the Characteristics and Capabilities of National Airport Systems Analysis of Airport Network Density Computed ratio of population over the total number of existing airports for each country. Metric that better reflects the adequacy between potential supply of air transportation services and potential demand. Great diversity in this ratio, indicative of the ability of different countries to accommodate future demand. Bangladesh India China Vietnam Nigeria Ghana Pakistan Uganda Ethiopia Egypt Japan Turkey Afghanistan Nepal Thailand Taiwan Morocco Yemen Uzbekistan Korea, South Italy Sudan Romania Indonesia Philippines Tanzania Poland Korea, North Spain Congo Iraq Algeria Malaysia Iran Kenya Germany United Kingdom France Saudi Arabia Peru Ukraine Russia Venezuela South Africa Mexico Colombia Brazil Argentina Canada United States Ratio of Population over Total Number of Existing Airports 10, ,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 All else being equal, countries with high ratio of population to number of existing airports are more likely to need the construction of new airports. e.g. China and India will require significant future development of airport infrastructure as their GDP per capita increases. United States and Europe generally have airport networks that are large enough compared to their Average = 372,000 (190 countries) population basins that they can rely on existing Countries with Countries with airports to accommodate future growth. low potential high potential Data source: CIA (2007) for new airports for new airports 7

8 Analyses of the Characteristics and Capabilities of National Airport Systems Analysis of Airport Runway Capabilities Analysis based on data from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) World Fact Book database, Results aggregated into 17 world subregions. On average worldwide, 30% of all airports have paved runways and 15% have at least one runway longer than 5,000 ft. Low end, Melanesia (6% of its airport equipped with paved runway and 3% with runways longer than 5,000 ft). Followed closely by Eastern Africa and Central America. Opposite end, in Eastern Asia (despite having high potential for new airports) 76% of all airports have paved runways and 56% have runways longer than 5,000 ft. Total number of existing airports Airports with paved runways Airports with runways >5,000 ft Percentage of Airport Equipped 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Melanesia Central America South America Eastern Africa Southern Africa Middle Africa Northern America South Eastern Asia Polynesia Western Africa Eastern Europe Caribbean Western Europe Australia and New Zealand Northern Europe Southern Europe Micronesia Southern Asia Western Asia Central Asia Northern Africa Eastern Asia Aggregate result by sub-region Average for all sub-regions (covering190 countries) Data source: CIA (2007) 8

9 Analyses of the Characteristics and Capabilities of National Airport Systems Analysis of Airport Approach Capabilities Safe and reliable airside access (i.e. approach) to airports can be achieved using a set of technology based capabilities, Analysis of airport approach capabilities for 190 countries using world airport database (DAFIF 2005). Airports with runways >5,000 ft Airports with runway lights Airports with weather and status information Percentage of Airport Equipped 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Of the set of airports with paved runways and at least one runway longer than 5000 ft, 85% have runway lights that allow night operations. 82% of the airports with broadcasting weather and airport status services, 50% have a tower 29% have at least one ILS or precision approach system. Data source: DAFIF (2005) Airports with a tower Airports with ILS / precision approach Southern Africa Middle Africa Micronesia Northern Africa Central America Australia and New Zealand Southern Asia South America Melanesia Western Africa Caribbean Northern America Eastern Europe Eastern Africa Central Asia Western Asia Polynesia South Eastern Asia Eastern Asia Southern Europe Northern Europe Western Europe Aggregate result by sub-region Average for all sub-regions (covering190 countries) 9

10 Summary of Analyses of National Airport Network Capabilities Potential Improvements of National Airport Network Capabilities Comparative analysis of capabilities and potential improvement across national airport networks based on the analyses of: (1) the density of the airport network with regard to population in each country, (2) the airport runway capabilities of existing airports, (3) the airport approach capabilities, Used a Potential Improvement Index (PII) where P i,c is the percentage of airports equipped with capability i in the set c, n is the number of capabilities in this set c Index ranges from 0 to 1. 0 = no potential improvement (airports in the Low potential High potential airport network are fully equipped), 1 = full potential for improvement (exhibit none of the capabilities) Data sources: CIA (2007), DAFIF (2005) 10 Low potential High potential Average Countries with low potential for new airports Countries with high potential for new airports Average

11 Airport System in the United States Case Study Analysis Density of the airport network: 14,800 airports, Very low ratio of population over number of airports (i.e. 20,300), Airport runway capabilities: 5100 with paved runways, 1800 with a runway longer than 5,000 ft. Airport approach capabilities: 96% have runway lights making them accessible by night VFR operations, 95% have airport information services, 33% have a tower, 28% have at least one ILS or precision approach. Airport with paved runway >5000 ft, tower, ILS/Precision approach Airport with paved runway and longer than 5000 ft Airport (unpaved runway and/or runway shorter than 5000 ft) Existing airports Generally, there is very good access to Airports with paved runways longer than 5000ft Airports with paved runways longer than 5000ft and approach capabilities airports in the United States 1 Effect of the construction of new airports Limited potential improvement of airport 2 Effect of the enhancement of airport physical infrastructure (pavement and lengthening of existing runways) access 3 Effect of the improvement of airport airside access capabilities Data sources: DAFIF (2005), U.S. Census (2000) (installation of new technologies) 11 Percentage of Total Population 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Distance (miles) from the airport

12 Airport System in Brazil Case Study Analysis Density of the airport network: 4200 airports, Low to medium ratio of population over number of airports (i.e. 42,000), Airport runway capabilities: 700 with paved runways, 200 with a runway longer than 5,000 ft. Airport approach capabilities: 54 have a tower, 26 have at least one ILS or precision approach. High potential for improvements on the runway and approach fronts. Without building any new airport, technology driven improvements of the airside access could almost double the coverage of population living within 50 miles of suitable airports (from 42% to 80%). Airport with paved runway >5000 ft, tower, ILS/Precision approach Airport with paved runway and longer than 5000 ft Airport (unpaved runway and/or runway shorter than 5000 ft) Percentage of Total Population 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Distance (miles) from the airport Existing airports Airports with paved runways longer than 5000ft Data sources: DAFIF (2005), Ministero da Agricultura (2008). 12 Airports with paved runways longer than 5000ft and approach capabilities

13 Airport System in France Case Study Analysis Paris Density of the airport network: 470 airports, Low to medium ratio of population over number of airports (i.e. 128,000), Lyon Airport runway capabilities: 61% with paved runways, 30% with a runway longer than 5,000 ft. Nice Toulouse Marseille Airport with paved runway >5000 ft, tower, ILS/Precision approach Airport with paved runway and longer than 5000 ft Airport (unpaved runway and/or runway shorter than 5000 ft) Data sources: DAFIF (2005), INSEE (2005) 100% Airport approach capabilities: 78% have at least one ILS or precision approach. Very good access to equipped airports in France; 99.8% of the population living within 50 miles of an airport, 99.5% within 50 miles of a fully equipped airport. Very limited potential for improving access Percentage of Total Population 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Distance (miles) from the airport Existing airports Airports with paved runways longer than 5000ft to airports. Airports with paved runways longer than 5000ft and approach capabilities 13

14 Airport System in Poland Case Study Analysis Density of the airport network: 122 airports, Medium ratio of population over number of airports (i.e. 312,000), Posnan Airport with paved runway >5000 ft, tower, ILS/Precision approach Wroclaw Lodz Krakow Warsaw Airport runway capabilities: 68% with paved runways, 60% with a runway longer than 5,000 ft. 100% Airport with paved runway and longer than 5000 ft Airport (unpaved runway and/or runway shorter than 5000 ft) Airport approach capabilities: 43% have a tower, 33% have at least one ILS or precision approach. Next generation air transportation system technologies have potential to improve access to airports. Percentage of Total Population 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Distance (miles) from the airport Existing airports Airports with paved runways longer than 5000ft Airports with paved runways longer than 5000ft and approach capabilities Data sources: Polish Central Statistical Office (2008), National Imagery and Mapping Agency Poland (2003), DAFIF (2005). 14

15 Airport System in India Delhi Case Study Analysis Density of the airport network: 341 airports, Very high ratio of population over number of airports (i.e. 3.3 million), Mumbai Kolkata Airport runway capabilities: 240 with paved runways, 140 with a runway longer than 5,000 ft. 100% Bangalore Chennai Airport with paved runway >5000 ft, tower, ILS/Precision approach Airport with paved runway and longer than 5000 ft Airport (unpaved runway and/or runway shorter than 5000 ft) Airport approach capabilities: 26 have at least one ILS or precision approach. Significant potential for technology driven improvement of the airport airside access. 60% of the Indian population lives within 50 miles of an airport. Equipping current airports with airside access technologies would significantly improve access to airports (fully equipped airports) from 25% to 50%. Data sources: DAFIF (2005), ML Infomap, (2002). Percentage of Total Population 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Distance (miles) from the airport Existing airports Airports with paved runways longer than 5000ft 15 Airports with paved runways longer than 5000ft and approach capabilities

16 Airport System in China Case Study Analysis Beijing Density of the airport network: 480 airports (140 open to civil operations), High ratio of population over number of airports (i.e. 2.7 million), Airport runway capabilities: 66% with a paved runway longer than 5,000 ft. Airport with paved runway >5000 ft, tower, ILS/Precision approach Airport with paved runway and longer than 5000 ft Airport (unpaved runway and/or runway shorter than 5000 ft) Guangzhou Chongqing Hong-Kong Shanghai Data sources: DAFIF (2005), All China Marketing Research Co., (2003). Airport approach capabilities: 16% have at least one ILS or precision approach. Significant improvements are feasible in all three categories; Initial efforts to address these needs are underway in China. Plan to increase the density of the national airport network (i.e. 97 new airports by 2020), Development of RNP approaches into several regional airports (e.g. Lhasa, Linzhi, Jiuzhaigou) Percentage of Total Population 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Distance (miles) from the airport Existing airports Airports with paved runways longer than 5000ft 16 Airports with paved runways longer than 5000ft and approach capabilities

17 Airport System in Nepal Case Study Analysis National airport network 48 airports, 10 with paved runways, 1 with a runway longer than 5000ft, 0 airport with ILS. Due to difficult terrain conditions (i.e. hilly and mountainous terrain in the northern twothirds of the country) the ground transportation network is limited and expensive to build. Nepal relies heavily on air transportation for regional transport and tourism. Pokhara Airport with paved runway >5000 ft, tower, ILS/Precision approach Airport with paved runway and longer than 5000 ft Airport (unpaved runway and/or runway shorter than 5000 ft) Kathmandu Patan Bhaktapur Biratnagar Next generation technologies could be used to improve access to existing airports and provide reliable and safe approaches in Nepal s airports. Data sources: DAFIF (2005), World Airport Codes (2008). 17

18 Airport System in Ethiopia Case Study Analysis National airport network 84 airports, 13 have runways longer than 5,000 ft, 1 airport is fully equipped. Population: 83 million (in 2007) second most populous country in Africa after Nigeria. Country characterized by an inadequate road transport network. Fifth lowest road network length per capita in the world, Poor conditions with only 4300 miles of paved roads. Air transportation is an important part of the Ethiopian transportation network. Amara Airport with paved runway >5000 ft, tower, ILS/Precision approach Airport with paved runway and longer than 5000 ft Airport (unpaved runway and/or runway shorter than 5000 ft) Adis Abeba Dire Dawa Improvements in the air transportation network and infrastructure would lead to positive economic impact in Ethiopia. Data sources: DAFIF (2005), World Airport Codes (2008). 18

19 Opportunities for Infrastructure and Technological Improvements Airport Network Characteristics Enabling Changes Enabling Next Gen. Technology Infrastructure Improvements Capabilities Enabled Operations Airport Distribution Density of the Airport Network Overall Airport Network Airport Runway Capabilities Next Gen. Aircraft (STOL) Runway Pavement Runway Extension Paved runway Runway length Jet Operations Regional Jet & Narrow Bodies Operations Airport Approach Capabilities LED lights Sensors & Info. Broadcast Virtual Tower/ Self Separation Airport Capabilities Runway lights Airport Weather & Status information (ASOS/ATIS) Tower Day & Night Operations Airport Weather Awareness Separation & Conflict Avoidance SBAS/GBAS & RNP ILS / Precision App. IFR Operations Info. Broadcast /ADS-B Radar Coverage Sequencing & High Capacity 19

20 Conclusions Analyzed current characteristics and capabilities of 190 national airport systems worldwide, (1) the density of the airport network with regard to population in each country, (2) the airport runway capabilities (of existing airports), (3) the airport approach capabilities (of existing airports). investigated the opportunities for infrastructure improvements including using next generation air transportation system technologies. Analyses showed significant differences between the nature and the capabilities of airport infrastructure across world regions. North American and the European systems exhibit good access to air transportation due to high density of airports. In other regions such as Asia (e.g. China, India), a latent need for the construction of new airports was identified. Potential from new technologies and capabilities; improve the efficiency of operations in regions with more mature air transportation infrastructure systems but marginal improvements for enhanced access. in developing and emerging regions that these technologies and capabilities are more likely to have the greatest impact on improved access to air transportation by opening up the set of non-utilized and under-equipped airports. 20

21 21 Questions & Comments Thank you!