2019 Defense Outlook & Commercial Aerospace Forum

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1 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019 Defense Outlook & Commercial Aerospace Forum Global Trends in Aircraft Financing January 10, 2019 John L. Plueger CEO & President

2 Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Measures Statements in this presentation that are not historical facts are hereby identified as forward-looking statements, including any statements about our expectations, beliefs, plans, predictions, forecasts, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance. These statements are often, but not always, made through the use of words or phrases such as anticipate, believes, can, could, may, predicts, potential, should, will, estimate, plans, projects, continuing, ongoing, expects, intends and similar words or phrases. Accordingly, these statements are only predictions and involve estimates, known and unknown risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in them. We wish to caution you that our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements as a result of several factors, including, but not limited to, the following: our inability to make acquisitions of, or lease, aircraft on favorable terms; our inability to sell aircraft on favorable terms or to predict the timing of such sales; our inability to obtain additional financing on favorable terms, if required, to complete the acquisition of sufficient aircraft as currently contemplated or to fund the operations and growth of our business; our inability to effectively oversee our managed fleet; our inability to obtain refinancing prior to the time our debt matures; impaired financial condition and liquidity of our lessees; deterioration of economic conditions in the commercial aviation industry generally; increased maintenance, operating or other expenses or changes in the timing thereof; changes in the regulatory environment including tariffs and other restrictions on trade; unanticipated impacts of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (the Tax Reform Act ), including as a result of changes in assumptions we make in our interpretation of the Tax Reform Act, guidance related to application of the Tax Reform Act that may be issued in the future, and actions that we may take as a result of our expected impact of the Tax Reform Act; and potential naturaldisasters and terrorist attacksand the amount of our insurance coverage, if any, relating thereto. We also refer you to the documents the Company files from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ), specifically the Company s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017 and the Company s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2018, which contain and identify important factors that could cause the actual results for the Company on a consolidated basis to differ materially from expectations and any subsequent documents the Company files with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are necessarily only estimates of future results, and there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations, and, therefore, you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements. Further, any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which the statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. If any such risks or uncertainties develop, our business, results of operation and financial condition could be adversely affected. The Company has an effective registration statement (including a prospectus) with the SEC. Before you invest in any offering of the Company s securities, you should read the prospectus in that registration statement and other documents the Company has filed with the SEC for more complete information about the Company and any such offering. You may obtain copies of the Company s most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and the other documents it files with the SEC for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at Alternatively, the Company will arrange to send such information if you request it by contacting Air Lease Corporation, General Counsel and Secretary, 2000 Avenue of the Stars, Suite 1000N, Los Angeles, California 90067, (310) In addition to financial results prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, this presentation contains certain non-gaap financial measures. Management believes that in addition to using GAAP results in evaluating our business, it can also be useful to measure results using certain non-gaap financial measures. Investors and potential investors are encouraged to review the reconciliation of non-gaap financial measures with their most direct comparable GAAP financial results set forth in the Appendix section. 2

3 Air travel has proven to be resilient RPKs (trillions) 8.0 Gulf Crisis Asian Crisis 9/11 SARS Financial Crisis Recessions 2 Financial crises Gulf wars 1 Oil shock 1 Near pandemic (SARS) 2x Trend 4.0 9/11 Attack x Source: ICAO data as of March

4 Aircraft demand remains strong largely due to passenger traffic growth North America +5.1% Europe +6.5% Asia Pacific +8.7% Latin America +6.1% Africa +2.5% Middle East +4.5% Total Market RPK Growth Up 6.6% YTD Through November 2018 Source: IATA Air Passenger Market Analysis, November Note: RPK is revenue passenger kilometres. 4

5 What s driving passenger traffic growth? Shifting Consumer Spending Habits Emerging Middle Class Affordability & Ease of Air Travel ❶ ❷ ❸ 5

6 Shifting consumer spending habits Spending on experiences vs. goods 1 Total personal consumption in the U.S. has nearly doubled in the last 15 years to $12.3 trillion. Over the same time period, discretionary spending on cars and home furnishings as a percentage of total spending has decreased, while purchases of food, accommodations and recreation services have steadily increased. 1 Source: 1 Forbes, Why Americans are spending more on experiences vs. buying stuff, 9/1/16. HSBC and Bureau of Economic Analysis. 6

7 A rapidly expanding middle class 160 million people per year on average will be added to the middle class through % of the next billion entrants into the middle class will be in Asia $29 trillion more than in 2015 will be consumed by the global middle class by 2030 We are witnessing the most rapid expansion of the middle class, at a global level, that the world has ever seen. By 2030, Asia could represent two-thirds of the global middle class population. Globally, the middle class could be spending $29 trillion more by 2030, accounting for roughly a third of projected GDP growth. 1 Source for statistics and quotes above: Brookings, The unprecedented expansion of the global middle class, an update, February 28, 2017 (1) GDP growth adjusted for 2011 purchasing power parity. 7

8 Air travel is increasingly accessible - Per IATA, by the end of 2017, unique city-pair connections exceeded 20,000 for the first time, representing a doubling of services since 1996 when there were less than 10,000 city-pairs 2 Unique city pairs & real transport costs 1 An example: Increase in city-pairs 2016 to ) IATA 2018 Annual Review 2) IATA Chart of the Week, December 1,

9 Air travel has increasingly become a bargain : Est. 8% CAGR Source: A4A U.S. Air Service and the Competitive Landscape, December 21,

10 Low cost carriers have taken share and lowered prices LCC/ULCC s driving fares lower Resulting in more affordable global fares Average round-trip ticket price Worldwide passenger traffic is up As LCC/ULCC take share from legacy carriers Sched. Passenger numbers (bn) Market Share, Western Europe (%) E Source: Top left and top right charts: The Wall Street Journal article: How Budget Carriers Transformed the Airline Industry, August 2017, 2 Bottom left chart: IATA Fact Sheet Industry Statistics December 2017, 3 Bottom right chart: Financial Times article: European airlines face more cuts and consolidation, October

11 Quantifying the size of expected passenger growth - Per IATA, the number of scheduled passengers grew between 5% - 7% annually between 2013 and 2017, adding mm passengers per year 1 - A continued 5%+ annual increase in passengers would be similar to adding passenger traffic of any one of the below airlines: Airline # of Aircraft Annual Passenger Volume (mm) 3 >180mm ~200mm ~180mm 1) IATA Industry Statistics Fact Sheet as of December ) Delta aircraft count as of 9/30/18 per 10-Q; easyjet fleet size of 315 aircraft as of 9/30/18 per 2018 annual report; Ryanair fleet size of 450 aircraft as of 9/30/18 per company website; China Southern fleet size of 740 as of 12/31/17 per 2017 annual report; Cathay Pacific fleet of 148 as of 6/30/18 per 2018 interim report; Vietnam airlines fleet of 94 aircraft as of 12/31/17 per 2017 annual report 3) Delta annual passengers per company website on 12/20/18 (>180mm); easyjet annual passengers as of 2018 annual report (88.5mm), Ryanair annual passengers per FY 2018 annual report for FY 2018 (130mm); China Southern annual passengers as of 12/31/17 per 2017 annual report (126mm); Cathay Pacific annual passengers as of 2017 Annual Report (34.8mm); Vietnam Airlines annual passengers per 2017 annual report (22mm) 11

12 Market expected to need 42,730 new airplanes by 2037 valued at ~$6.3 trillion Airplane deliveries: 42, Market value: $6,300B Airplane Type Value 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,320 Regional jets 5% 31,360 Singleaisle 73% 8,070 Widebody 19% 980 Freighter 2% Regional jets $110B Single-aisle Widebody $3,480B $2,480B Freighter $280B World Total $6,300B $6.3T RJ Single Aisle Widebody Freighters Source: Boeing, Commercial Market Outlook,

13 Replacement demand is also extremely important ~41,000 ~41,000 aircraft aircraft needed needed Total over over western next next aircraft years years by age for for range growth growth 1,2 and and replacement replacement 100% 90% 80% 6,464 5,212 3,908 2,598 1,233 6,378 6,464 5,212 3,908 Aircraft Age Range Less than 5 years old 5 to 10 years old 10 to 15 years old Greater than 15 years old 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 4,790 3,441 5,545 5,220 3,742 6,066 5,632 4,055 6,645 6,027 4,295 7,320 4,495 8,134 4,790 8,986 5,220 9,808 5,632 10,700 0% By 2020, there will be over 10,000 aircraft over the age of 10 Source: FlightGlobal, June 2018; Data includes Airbus and Boeing passenger airline aircraft, in service & storage. 1 Excludes new deliveries post Includes Boeing 717, 727, 747, 757, 767, 777, 787, 737 aircraft, Airbus A300, A310, A318, A319, A320, A321, A330, A340, A350, A380 aircraft as well as DC-3, DC-9, MD-80 and MD-90 aircraft 13

14 Lessors have gained share of the world s fleet Leasing Share of the World s Fleet % 1.7% 14.7% 24.7% ~39% 17 leased 100 leased 1,343 leased 3,715 leased 10,290 leased 3,722 aircraft 6,037 aircraft 9,160 aircraft 15,032 aircraft 26,131 aircraft Source: Boeing; Data as of December 31,

15 Funding requirements for aircraft deliveries put into context Capital expected to be needed to fund aircraft deliveries $174 $165 $154 $143 $126 $104 $99 $92 $86 $76 $47 $51 $56 $60 $64 $3 $7 $6 $6 $5 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E ALC Lessors Other ALC order book 3% 37% 60% ALC Lessors Other >$900bn of capital expected to be needed to fund new aircraft deliveries between Source: Boeing Capital Corporation Current Aircraft Finance Market Outlook

16 Why do airlines lease? Less cash & financing required - Large lessors drive bulk order pricing - Airline not responsible for pre-delivery payments Fleet flexibility - Airlines can adjust leased aircraft based on traffic, competition, etc. Key delivery positions - Access to earlier delivery positions than perhaps achievable directly through OEMs Eliminate residual value risk - Aircraft returned to lessor at end of lease 16

17 Differentiators of the aircraft leasing model Triple net leases Lessee responsible for all operating costs including: Taxes, tariffs and duties Insurance Maintenance Crews Fuel Mobile assets Aircraft lessors can move their assets to another airline, unlike a real estate building which is immobile High utilization Percentage of Boeing/Airbus aircraft under 20 years of age parked: Less than 3% 1 (1) Per FlightGlobal as of November 2018; represents Boeing & Airbus aircraft in storage and less than 20 years old 17

18 Breaking down the aircraft lessor market by strategy Order Book OR Sale Leaseback Years 0-8 Years 8-20 Years 20+ New Midlife End of Life Aircraft Age 18

19 There have been various macro events and industry concerns over the years Time of market concern Concerns: 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q European debt crisis Increased competition New aircraft technology Rising interest rates Pandemics Low oil Production rates Wide body weakness China/global slowdown; Trade War Fears Brexit Production delays 19

20 Lessors are less impacted by aviation cycles than airlines In good times, airlines need lessors for additional capacity and, in bad times, airlines need lessor balance sheets Lessor Stability 100% 90% 80% Aircraft utilization 70% 60% 50% 40% Prior Company ALC 30% 20% 10% 0% Note: Utilization is defined as aircraft subject to lease agreement; ALC s management team s track record covers performance at ALC and prior company 20

21 Consistency of ALC s key metrics ALC s yields and portfolio metrics have remained consistent Macro volatility has had minimal impact on ALC s fleet metrics Our rental revenues have averaged 11.5% of average net book value since % % 12.0 Annualized Lease Yield (1) 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Weighted Average Portfolio Metrics (years) Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Annualized Lease Yield Average Age Avg. Rem Lease Term 1 Per ALC filings. Calculated as rental of flight equipment, excluding overhaul revenue and amortization of prepaid lease costs, divided by quarterly average net book value. 21

22 China ALC status & what we re seeing: Air Lease currently has only 6 aircraft scheduled to deliver into China (deliveries to occur in 2019 & 2020) Air Lease continues to dialogue with customers in China (and broader Asia) We also receive inbound requests for additional aircraft from these customers What others are reporting/expect: IATA reports that passenger traffic trends in Asia continue to outpace other regions 1 Boeing estimates that China alone will need 7,690 new aircraft over the next 20 years 2 China is aiming to have 450 airports by 2035 almost double the current number of airports 3 1 IATA Industry Facts and Statistics Fact Sheet as of December Boeing Commercial Market Outlook, Reuters, China aims to have 450 airports by 2035: aviation regulator, December

23 Growth and stability of ALC s business $9.2 $10.7 Assets ($bn) $12.4 $14.0 $15.6 $17.6 Unencumbered Assets 1 ($bn) $14.1 $12.3 $10.6 $8.6 $16.0 $ Q18 Revenues ($mm) Q18 Adjusted net income before income taxes 2 ($mm) $859 $1,050 $1,223 $1,419 $1,516 $339 $439 $508 $623 $658 $377 $451 $166 $ Q17 3Q Q17 3Q18 1 Comprised of unrestricted cash plus unencumbered flight equipment (calculated as flight equipment subject to operating leases (net of accumulated depreciation) less net book value of aircraft pledged as collateral) plus deposits on flight equipment purchases plus certain other assets. 2 Adjusted Net Income Before Income Taxes is a non-gaap financial measure. See appendix for reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP measure. 23

24 ALC has a balanced fleet with the most modern aircraft on order ALC Owned Fleet 268 aircraft ALC Order Book 434 aircraft* 3.8 years weighted avg. fleet age years weighted avg. remaining lease term 3 A320/321/321LR/NEO (A321LRNEO Launch Customer) 143 on order Owned Fleet by Aircraft Size 4 Twin- Aisle, 24% Single- Aisle, 76% 737-7/8/9 MAX A NEO (Launch Customer) 202 on order 1 29 on order Owned Fleet by Manufacturer 4 Airbus, 42% Embraer, <1% Boeing, 57% 787-9/10 ( Launch Customer) A /1000 (A Launch Customer) 41 on order 19 on order 2 Information as of September 30, * Includes 384 aircraft on order plus options to purchase 50 aircraft; 1 Includes 157 aircraft on order plus options to acquire 45 Boeing MAX aircraft; 2 Includes 14 aircraft on order plus options to acquire up to five Airbus A aircraft. 3 Weighted average based on net book value of ALC s owned fleet. 4 Shown by number of aircraft, may not total to 100% due to rounding 24

25 Air Lease represents 14% of lessor orders for Boeing and Airbus aircraft % 14% 54% 15% 60% 61% 12% 14% 14% Total Aircraft on Order by Lessors: 1,806 Total Lessors: 29 Total Aircraft on Order by Lessors: 2,828 Total Lessors: 31 Source: FlightGlobal. Includes all Boeing and Airbus commercial aircraft. 1 As of September 30, As of October 3,

26 Air Lease snapshot Scale Visibility Returns Stability $17.6 billion Total Assets 762 Aircraft owned, managed & on order 82% Orderbook placed through 2020 $24.1 billion Total committed minimum future fleet rentals 15.6% Pre-tax return on equity 1 Large unencumbered asset base & significant liquidity Data as of September 30, 2018; 762 aircraft owned, managed and on order includes 268 owned aircraft, 60 managed aircraft, 384 aircraft on order and 50 aircraft purchase options; $24.1 billion total committed future rentals includes $11.4 billion in contracted minimum rental payments on the aircraft in our existing fleet and $12.7 billion in minimum future rental payments related to aircraft which will deliver between 2018 and 2022; (1) TTM as of September 30,

27 Questions?

28 Appendix Non-GAAP reconciliations (in thousands, except share and per share data) Reconciliation of net income to adjusted net income before income taxes: Three Months Ended September 30, Year Ended December 31, Net income $ 146,574 $ 99,188 $ 756,152 $ 374,925 $ 253,391 $ 255,998 $ 190,411 Amortization of debt discounts and issuance costs 8,199 6,959 29,454 30,942 30,507 27,772 23,627 Stock-based compensation 4,848 5,358 19,804 16,941 17,022 16,048 21,614 Settlement , Insurance recovery on settlement - - (950) (5,250) (4,500) - - Provision for income taxes 32,808 54,931 (146,622) 205, , , ,031 Adjusted net income before income taxes $ 192,429 $ 166,436 $ 657,838 $ 622,871 $ 507,982 $ 438,596 $ 338,683 28

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