FLEET WATCH A review of commercial aircraft orders and deliveries for 2015

Transcription

1 A review of commercial aircraft orders and deliveries for 215

2 AIRCRAFT ORDERS There were 2,684 commercial aircraft ordered during 215, data from Flightglobal s Fleets Analyzer shows. Together with 31 cancellations and 123 swaps occurred, it meant net orders for the year closed at 2,375. That is around 3% down on the peak of 214. But while order levels failed to match the highs of recent years, they remain above pre-economic crisis levels. Overall, Airbus recorded over 1,1 new orders after classifying some orders disclosed in January including BOC Aviation and Gulf Air s A32-family orders for 3 and 12 aircraft respectively as 215 orders. But the European manufacturer s net order count was still 37% down 214. is off the back of the order highs which accompanied the launch of Airbus and Boeing s re-engined narrowbodies. Airbus secured over 9 narrowbody orders, the vast majority for the A32neo variant. Boeing recorded 55 net orders, around three-quarters of which were for its new 737 Max. Chinese manufacturer Comac received seven orders for its C919, while Irkut took in six orders for the MC-21 to complete the narrowbody count. Widebody net orders for the year stood at 316, comprising 137 for Airbus and 179 for Boeing. This was down on 214 levels but still relatively high compared to previous years. There were an almost identical number of orders for regional jets and turboprops, with 281 regional jet orders and one less for turboprops. But while that marked a decline in turboprop orders, it was a 55% increase in regional jet orders the only market segment to have higher orders in 215. Fast-growing Indian low-cost carrier Indigo placed the largest order in 215, after firming its commitment for 25 A32neo jets. Another budget carrier was also active, central European operator Wizz Air ordering 11 A32neos. Aircraft lessor Boeing secured 84 new orders during the year, down 45% on 214. Embraer took in 183 new orders while ATR, Xian and Bombardier received 76, 7 and 55 orders respectively. airliner net orders: ,5 Around two-thirds of the orders - 1,43 aircraft were in the narrowbody sector. This was 4% down on 214 and the most largest change compared to other market groups. This though largest commercial aircraft orders of 215 2, 1,5 Narrowbody jet Widebody jet Regional jet Turboprop Customer Country Aircraft family Orders IndiGo India A32neo family 25 1, Wizz Air Hungary A32neo family 11 AerCap Netherlands 737 Max 1 5 Avianca Colombia A32neo family 98 Copa Airlines Panama 737Max 5 FedEx USA GECAS Ireland/USA A32neo family 43 Smile Air Ghana MA7 4 Japan Airlines Japan MRJ Source: Flightglobal s Fleets Analyzer database (February 216) Source: Flightglobal s Fleets Analyzer database (February 216) 2 Flightglobal

3 AerCap s order for Max 8s was the third largest order commitment during 215. Notable cancellations in 215 came from Russia, amid the challenging economic and currency environment, as VEB Leasing cancelled 24 Sukhoi Superjet 1s and the collapse of Russia s second biggest operator Transaero Airlines resulted in a further six Superjet 1 cancellations as well as for eight A32neos and an A38. Commercial order backlog figures have consistently been on the rise since 29 and last year ended at a record high of 15,31 aircraft, representing a 4% increase on the previous year. While there was 3% fall in the widebody aircraft backlog, there was an increase for all other market groups. The narrowbody backlog reached a new peak at just under 1,6 units, while there are now more than 2,6 widebodies in the backlog. Regional jet and turboprop market groups both reached record highs at the end of 215. The regional jet backlog increased 12% to over 1, aircraft, while there are just over 7 turboprops now on order. Leading operators by backlog (31 Dec 215) Operator Country Backlog The Airbus backlog reached 6,772 aircraft while Boeing stood at 5,745 on 31 December 215. Embraer, Comac, Bombardier and ATR showed figures of 513, 442, 317 and 276 respectively. In the narrowbody sector, the A32 family topped the order backlog listing with 5,528 aircraft, including 4,465 for the neo variant, while the 737 has a backlog of 4,355 orders, including 3,65 for the re-engined Max. Backlogs for the C919, CSeries and MC-21 stand at 282, 238 and 181 respectively. The 787 has the largest backlog in the widebody market with 773 aircraft on order 62 less than the previous year. The A35 follows with a backlog of 761, down 17 units from the same point in 214. airliner year-end order backlog: , 12, Narrowbody jet Widebody jet Regional jet Turboprop The MRJ and ARJ21 topped the regional jet orders backlog figures with 223 and 16 units respectively, while in the turboprop sector the 276 units for ATR aircraft. Indonesia s Lion Air had 489 aircraft on order as of the end of 215, the most of any airline. These comprise s, 25 A32 family aircraft and 4 ATR42s. It has orders for an additional 17 units for aircraft destined for its subsidiaries Batik Air and Malindo Air. Indigo has an order backlog of 43 aircraft all for the A32neo family aircraft while American Airlines and AirAsia both have more than 3 aircraft in their backlogs. Aircraft lessors AerCap has 416 aircraft and Air Lease 396 units in the backlog as of the end of Lion Air Indonesia IndiGo India 43 8, 3 American Airlines USA AirAsia Malaysia 37 4 Air Lease Corporation USA 35 4, 6 AerCap Netherlands 33 7 Emirates Airline UAE Southwest Airlines USA Ryanair Ireland SkyWest Airlines USA Source: Flightglobal s Fleets Analyzer database (February 216) Source: Flightglobal s Fleets Analyzer database (February 216) 3 Flightglobal

4 AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES Fleets Analyzer data shows that airlines took delivery of more than 1,75 aircraft in 215. This was an increase of 2% on 214 and set a new high for commercial deliveries. more than 1,75 deliveries Boeing delivered 739 commercial aircraft, while Airbus handed over 628 units record highs for both manufacturers. were made in Aircraft deliveries to mainline airlines dominated the market 215 with a share of 84%. The majority of deliveries to low-cost/leisure operators occurred in North America with over 9 aircraft. Boeing 787s and 97 Boeing 777s. Airbus delivered 99 A33s during the year, and after delivering its first A35 to launch customer Qatar Airways in December 214, it delivered 14 A35s last year. The European manufacturer expects to deliver more than 5 A35s in 216. Combined Airbus and Boeing delivered 42 widebodies in 215 an 8% increase on 214. In the regional jet sector, a total of 11 E-Jets, 43 CRJs and 18 Superjet 1s were delivered. Turboprop deliveries include 81 ATRs and 28 Bombardier Q4s. airliner deliveries: deliveries by region NORTH AMERICA 24% LATIN AMERICA 8% EUROPE 16% AFRICA 3% MIDDLE EAST 7% ASIA-PACIFIC 41% The enlarged American Airlines took delivery of the most aircraft during the year with 7 units. Just over half of these were A32 family aircraft, while there were also s, s and a pair of 777s. China Eastern Airlines and Air China followed with 65 and 36 aircraft respectively. 1,8 1,5 Narrowbody jet Widebody jet Regional jet Turboprop Airbus Boeing 1,8 1,5 Asia-Pacific had the largest share of deliveries in 215. The region accounted for 41% of commercial aircraft deliveries, while there were around a quarter in North America and 16% in Europe. 1,2 9 1,2 9 Just over half, 55%, of deliveries were for narrowbody aircraft, while 23% were for widebodies. Turboprops accounted for 13% and regional jets the remaining 1% of the world s deliveries in Airbus delivered 488 A32 family aircraft during the year, the most of any type, just ahead of the 471 Boeing 737 aircraft the US airframer delivered in But Boeing delivered the most widebody aircraft, including 131 Source: Flightglobal s Fleets Analyzer database (February 216) 4 Flightglobal

5 Boeing deliveries represent $6bn based on Ascend s 215 full-life base values, while Airbus totalled $42bn the higher number reflecting the US manufacturer s greater share of widebody deliveries during the year. It means the global commercial in-service fleet passed the 3, aircraft mark for the first time in 215, increasing 4% on the previous year. Boeing aircraft, including the McDonnell Douglas legacy aircraft, comprise almost 1,9 aircraft around 36% of the world fleet. There are just over 8, Airbus aircraft in service, representing 27% of the fleet. In the regional market, there are over 2,6 active Bombardier jets and turboprops in service representing 9% of the fleet, while there are close to 1,9 Embraer aircraft at 31 December 215. top 1 operators for aircraft delivered in 215 Operator Country Aircraft delivered 1 American Airlines USA 7 2 China Eastern Airlines China 65 3 Air China China 36 4 United Airlines USA 34 4 China Southern Airlines China 34 6 Turkish Airlines (THY) Turkey 33 7 Hainan Airlines China 3 8 Emirates Airline UAE 26 9 SkyWest Airlines USA 25 1 Ryanair Ireland 24 aircraft manufacturer DELIVERIES values ($bn) OTHER TOTAL 1, NOTE: Deliveries for commercial operators only. Delivery values are in 215 dollars, based on Ascend s 215 Full-Life Base Values Source: Flightglobal s Fleets Analyzer database (February 216) Source: Flightglobal s Fleets Analyzer database (February 216) 5 Flightglobal

6 The information contained in our database and used in this presentation has been assembled from many sources, and whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure accuracy, the information is supplied on the understanding that no legal liability whatsoever shall attach to Flightglobal, its offices, or employees in respect of any error or omission that may have occurred. 216 flightglobal, part of reed business information ltd