Analyst Briefing Quarter 3/2012
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- Osborne Holland
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1 THAI AIRWAYS INTERNATIONAL PCL Analyst Briefing Quarter 3/ Investor Relations Department
2 DISCLAIMER The information contained herein is intended to represent the Company s operating and financial position at a given point in time and may also contain forward looking information which only reflects expectations based on the prevailing geo-political, economic and non-controllable factors. Such information has been obtained from sources believed to be most reliable and the means in analyzing and preparation of such information for disclosure are based on approved practices and principles in the investment industry. The views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and uncertainties and no assurance is made as to whether such future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that the assumptions herein are correct. Consequently no assurance is made as to the accuracy or completeness of information presented in this document. This document should not be construed as an investment guide or as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell equity shares or other securities issued by the Company. 2 Investor Relations Department
3 Q3/2012 Financial Performance 3 Investor Relations Department
4 Financial Performance Performance Summary (Q & Q3 2012) THAI and its subsidiaries (Units : MTHB) Q3'2011 Q3'2012 Total Revenue 49,961 52,431 Total Expense 49,668 50,399 Foreign currency exchange (Loss) 2,299 (120) Profit before income tax expense 2,592 1,912 Net tax expense (income) Net profits (loss) 2,447 1,750 4 Investor Relations Department
5 Financial Performance EBIT, EBITDA and Net Profit (Q & Q3 2012) Units : MTHB Factors Impacting Q Results EBIT EBITDA *NET PROFIT *NET PROFIT (Exclude FX & tax impact) Recovery in passenger demand 6.9% higher than last year ASK Lower by 0.5% but RPK grew by 3.1% over last year Fuel cost 4% lower than last year Passenger yield higher than last quarter & last year Actual Flood Disaster relief was lower than reserves totaling THB 190 million Reversed reserves for Antitrust cases THB 682 million 5 Investor Relations Department
6 Financial Performance Operating / Total Revenue (Q & Q3 2012) Operating Revenue Total Revenue Units : MTHB 60,000 40, ,105 6, , , Revenue % Change % to Tot. Rev. Passenger Freight Mail ,000 40,207 43,092 Other activities Interest income Q3'2011 Q3'2012 Passenger Freight Mail Other activities Interest income Other income Other income Total Income *Excludes Interest & Other income - Operating revenue Q = 49,204 MTHB - Operating revenue Q = 51,714 MTHB Total revenue Q = 49,961 MTHB Total revenue Q = 52,431 MTHB 6 Investor Relations Department
7 Operating / Total Expense (Q & Q3 2012) Financial Performance Units : MTHB 60,000 45,000 30,000 15,000 1,237 20,013 Operating Expense ,158 5,113 4,963 3,043 3,186 1,374 1,443 2,751 2,472 5,137 5,342 19,139 Total Expense % Change % of Expense YoY Tot. Exp. Personnel expense Fuel and oil Flight service expense Inventories and supplies Crew expense ,470 Q3'2011 Q3'2012 7,505 Maintenance/overhual Depreciation/amortisation Personnel Fuel and Oil Flight Service Expense Inventory&Supply Crew Expense Aircraft Maintenance Depreciation Lease of a/c Other * Excludes FX, Impairment losses and Share of profit of investments by the equity method - Operating expense Q = 48,695 MTHB - Operating expense Q = 49,213 MTHB Aircraft lease/spare parts Other expense Total Expense Total expense Q = 47,369 MTHB Total expense Q = 50,518 MTHB 7 Investor Relations Department
8 Financial Performance Ratios Q & Q3/2012 Ratios units Q Q Earnings Per Share (THB) Book Value per Share (THB) Price / Book Value (Times) EBIT (MTHB) 368 2,501 EBITDA (MTHB) 5,482 7,464 EBITDAR (MTHB) 6,719 8,622 IBD to Equity (Times) Debt Service Coverage* (Times) Interest Coverage (Times) EBITDA Margin (%) Operating Profit Margin (%) Net Profit Margin (%) Cash to Total Revenue (%) *EBITDAR TAX / Interest + Rent + Long Term Debt Repayment - Refinance 8 Investor Relations Department
9 9M/2012 Financial Performance 9 Investor Relations Department
10 Financial Performance Performance Summary (9M 2011 & 9M 2012) THAI and its subsidiaries (Units : MTHB) 9M'2011 9M'2012 Total Revenue 147, ,442 Total Expense 148, ,796 Foreign currency exchange (Loss) (3,325) 1,723 Profit before income tax expense (4,878) 4,369 Net tax expense (income) (99) 291 Net profits (loss) (4,809) 3, Investor Relations Department
11 Financial Performance EBIT, EBITDA and Net Profit (9M 2011 & 9M 2012) Units : MTHB Factors Impacting 9M 2012 Results Recovery in passenger demand 8.3% higher than last year Lower ASK by about 0.2% but RPK saw growth of 6% over last year Fuel cost 4% higher than last year Higher capacity introduced Weaknesses of US & European economies EBIT EBITDA NET PROFIT NET PROFIT (Exclude FX & tax impact) Yield pressure due to heightened competition and campaigns 11 Investor Relations Department
12 Financial Performance Operating / Total Revenue (9M 2011 & 9M 2012) Operating Revenue Total Revenue Units : MTHB 180, , , , ,978 6,229 20, ,435 19, , Revenue % Change % to Tot. Rev. Passenger Freight ,000 80,000 Mail ,000 40,000 20, , ,195 Other activities Interest income M'2011 9M'2012 Passenger Freight Mail Other activities Interest income Other income *Excludes Interest & Other income - Operating revenue 9M 2011 = 145,069 MTHB - Operating revenue 9M 2012 = 153,645 MTHB Other income Total Income Total revenue 9M 2011 = 147,371 MTHB Total revenue 9M 2012 = 155,442 MTHB 12 Investor Relations Department
13 Operating / Total Expense (9M 2011 & 9M 2012) Financial Performance Units : MTHB 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 Operating Expense ,147 3,263 14,916 15,155 8,623 9,475 4,083 4,221 7,119 7,061 15,333 15,452 56,894 59,144 Total Expense % Change % of Expense YoY Tot. Exp. Personnel expense Fuel and oil Flight service expense Inventories and supplies Crew expense , ,898 22,386 9M'2011 9M'2012 Maintenance/overhual Depreciation/amortisation Personnel Fuel and Oil Flight Service Expense Inventory&Supply Crew Expense Aircraft Maintenance Depreciation Lease of a/c Other * Excludes FX, Impairment losses and Share of profit of investments by the equity method - Operating expense 9M 2011 = 144,587 MTHB - Operating expense 9M 2012 = 148,036 MTHB Aircraft lease/spare parts Other expense Total Expense Total expense 9M 2011 = 152,249 MTHB Total expense 9M 2012 = 151,073 MTHB 13 Investor Relations Department
14 Financial Performance Ratios 9M 2011 & 9M 2012 Ratios units 9M M 2012 Earnings Per Share (THB) Book Value per Share (THB) Price / Book Value (Times) EBIT (MTHB) 482 5,609 EBITDA (MTHB) 15,398 20,763 EBITDAR (MTHB) 19,545 24,026 IBD to Equity (Times) Debt Service Coverage* (Times) Interest Coverage (Times) EBITDA Margin (%) Operating Profit Margin (%) Net Profit Margin (%) Cash to Total Revenue (%) *EBITDAR TAX / Interest + Rent + Long Term Debt Repayment - Refinance 14 Investor Relations Department
15 Revenue By Class By Area JAN - AUG 2012 Royal First 2% Royal Silk 20% Economy 77% Premium Economy 1% Regional 49% Australia 10% Europe 28% Domestic 10% Africa 1% North Pacific 2% Passenger Revenue* JAN-AUG 2012 = 107,871 MTHB * Schedule flight only 15 Investor Relations Department
16 Company overview 16 Investor Relations Department
17 Snapshot 2012 Q % Change YoY 9M 2012 % Change YoY Total Revenue (MTHB) 52, % 155, % Net Profit (Included FX) 1, % 3, % Assets 291,553 (30 Sep 12) +6.2% (Change from Year 2011) 291,553 (30 Sep 12) +6.2% (Change from Year 2011) 2012 Q % Change YoY 9M 2012 % Change YoY Passenger carried (Million) % % Million Revenue Passenger Kilometers (MRPK) 15, % 44, % Freight carried (tons) 166, % 501, % Million Revenue Freight Ton Kilometers (MRFTK) % 1, % 2012 # of Aircraft (As of 30 SEP 12)) 93** **Excluding : 1 A Charter flight 4 B & 2 ATR-72 leased to Nok Air Frequency Flights per Week (Effective 28 OCT MAR 13) 871 Destinations Served (Effective 28 OCT MAR 13) 70 Countries Served (Effective 28 OCT MAR 13) 36 Note: TG only 17 Investor Relations Department
18 Snapshot Q M 2012 Units % Change YoY % Change YoY Passenger Production MASK 19,729 19, % 58,458 58, % Passenger Traffic MRPK 15,129 14, % 44,836 42, % Cabin Factor % % % Passenger carried Million % % Passenger Yield* THB/km % % Freight Production MADTK 1,261 1, % 3,621 3, % Freight Traffic MRFTK % 1,960 2, % Freight Factor % % % Freight carried Tons 166, , % 501, , % Freight Yield* THB/km % % Note : * Yield includes fuel surcharge Yield 2012 is estimated number from RCM 18 Investor Relations Department
19 Current Fleet Current Fleet: 93 Aircraft* 49% of O 33% of FL 18% of OL O=Owned FL=Financial lease OL=Operating lease (Note: Approximately) *Excluding: 1 A Charter flight, 4 B and 2 ATR-72 leased to Nok # of # of Seat Aircraft Type Version Aircraft First Business Economy Total A R1 4 N.A R3 5 N.A A FL A N.A N.A A N.A. N.A OL A FL B N.A O, 3 OL B O, 4 FL Freighter 2 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. B N.A O, 2 OL B ER 77E1 6 N.A FL B N.A TKE 1 N.A Financial Method B ER OL As of 30 SEP 12 Total ,674 5, O, 31 FL, 17 OL 19 Investor Relations Department 9 O 10 O, 12 FL,2 OL 4 O, 2 FL
20 Aircraft Delivery Plan NEW A/C DELIVERY TOTAL A (FL) (SEP/NOV/DEC) 3 (FL) (FEB/SEP/OCT) B ER 2 (OL) (AUG/OCT) 6 (OL) (MAR/APR/JUN/ JUL/AUG/OCT) 3 (FL) 3 (FL) A (FL) (FEB/SEP/OCT) 2 (FL) (JAN/APR) A (FL) I 2 (OL) R 2 (FL) I 6 (OL) R 12 B (OL) 2 B (OL) 2 (OL) A320 (Thai Smile) 4 (OL) (JUN/AUG/AUG/SEP) 6 (OL) (JAN/MAR/-/-/-/-) 2 (FL) 5(OL) 3 (FL) TOTAL Average Fleet Age* *Based on Leased A320 Note : OL = Operating leas / FL = Financial lease I = Intercontinental / R = Regional 20 Investor Relations Department
21 Phase Out Plan PHASE-OUT PLAN TOTAL B (DEC) B ER (Jet Airways) A (MAY) B A A (MAR) B * (JUL/JUL) 2* ATR-72-2* TOTAL Note : *Return from Nok Air 21 Investor Relations Department
22 Closing THAI s Business Gap THAI Smile to complete THAI at the light premium level and NOK to close out the low cost market Brand positioning matrix for THAI and affiliated companies Product Offering Premium full service Premium 3 class Premium 2 class Premium regional (wide body) 2 Class 2 Class Launched July 2012 No frills Stage length small* big connecting Regional Intercontinental Domestic Note: * NOK focuses on DMK only; ** Possibilities surrounding expanding fleet to include wide-body aircraft will be evaluated as opportunities arise 22 Investor Relations Department
23 THAI Smile Fleet Plan & Route Networkm Macau THAI Smile based at Suvarnabhumi Airport Operates in domestic and regional secondary routes and synchronize with TG network. Fleet Plan ( ) # of aircraft FREQUENCY DESTINATION Airbus 320 Brand new narrow body aircraft Flights / week Bangkok Phuket V.V. International & Domestic Route Flights / week Chiang Mai Phuket V.V. 14 Flights / week Bangkok- Macau V.V. 14 Flights / week Bangkok Surat Thani V.V. Effective: 28 Oct Mar 2013 Countries Cities Total Flights / week Bangkok Chiang Mai V.V. 28 Flights / week Bangkok - Krabi V.V. Freq./Week 84 *Note: Effective : 28 October March Investor Relations Department
24 Nok Air Route Network 11 Aircrafts (As at end of SEP 12) Nok Air based at Don Mueang Airport Currently operates only domestic point-to-point 4 of Boeing of Boeing of ATR 72 Route As at end of Sep 2012 Cities Freq./Week Total Domestic TG s Proportion of Shareholding increased from 39% to 49% (Oct. 2011) 24 Investor Relations Department
25 THAI s Upgrade and Retrofit Schedule # of Aircraft First Business Economy Progress B No All: Completed MAR B No # 13,14: Completed OCT # 15-18: By MAY 2013 B # 1,2: Completed OCT 2012 # 3-8: By JUN B Improved seats & new PTV in all classes B Installed in seat VDO in Y class 25 Investor Relations Department
26 Route Network and Fleet THAI s Latest Japanese Destination Bangkok-Sapporo With Airbus flights/week (From 30 Oct 12) 4 flights/week (From 30 Dec 12) 26 Investor Relations Department
27 Internet Sales % of Sales Ticket Sales Via Internet Year 2009 Year 2010 Year 2011 Year 2012 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 27 Investor Relations Department
28 e-services Check-in via Mobile ( Check-in via Internet # of PAX 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 7,005 % , Year 2009 Year 2010 Year 2011 Year 2012 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 28 Investor Relations Department
29 Ongoing Measures - New Partners Launched Co Brand Card with Sumitomo bank. Launched Co - Brand with AEON Card Services Thailand to boost Japanese customers. Launched ROH & AGODA online hotel booking engine. Launched China UnionPay Card for web sales in Chinese market. Increase corporate accounts : Signed contract with Michelin Group 29 Investor Relations Department
30 Fuel Management Hedging combined with fuel surcharge greatly mitigates fuel price fluctuation risk Monthly fuel hedging % of consumption by month Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 17% 38% 41% 44% 44% 49% 35% 27% 20% 23% 3% 3% 7% 13% 13% 17% 20% 27% 30% 38% 38% 38% 44% 44% 44% 47% 47% 47% 51% 51% 51% 50% 50% 56% 54% 54% 54% 69% 69% 69% 69% 69% 69% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 73% 76% 79% 84% 84% 84% 93% 93% 93% 85% 85% 85% 30 Investor Relations Department
31 Looking Ahead 31 Investor Relations Department
32 Factors in Play Effecting Performance RAPID FLUCTUATION OF FUEL PRICE Fuel surcharge & fuel hedging in place HIGHER COMPETITION ALL AROUND Launched THAI Smile WEAKER TRAVEL DEMAND FROM EUROPE launched promotions despite yields still below target, advance promotion covers next 3-6 months WEAK FARE ENVIRONMENT Require dynamic action FOREIGN EXCHANGE VOLATILITY Active short-term derivatives & money conversions 32 Investor Relations Department
33 Looking Ahead Cabin Factor Actual Estimated (As of ) Booking (As of ) Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Freight Factor Actual Estimated (As of ) Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov Investor Relations Department
34 Operating Statistics 34 Investor Relations Department
35 Operating Statistics Passengers Carried Q3 12 = 5.10 million (Increased 6.9% YoY) (Million) Year Year Year Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Freight Carried Q3 12 = 166,187 tons (Decreased 1.2% YoY) (Tons) 190, , , ,155 Year 2010 Year 2011 Year , , , , , , , , , , ,000 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 35 Investor Relations Department
36 Passenger ,000 6,000 4,000 2, Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul- 10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul- 11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul- 12 Aug-12 Sep-12 (Million) Operating Statistics Year 2010 Year 2011 Year 2012 (%) ASK RPK C/F YoY (Month) YoY (Quarter) YoY (Year to date) SEP'12 SEP'11 YoY% Q3'12 Q3'11 YoY% JAN-SEP'12 JAN-SEP'11 YoY% MASK 6,544 6, ,729 19, ,458 58, MRPK 4,690 4, ,129 14, ,837 42, Cabin factor% Investor Relations Department
37 37 Investor Relations Department Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 (Million) Operating Statistics Freight Year 2010 Year 2011 Year 2012 (%) ADTK RFTK F/F YoY (Month) YoY (Quarter) YoY (Year to date) SEP'12 SEP'11 YoY% Q3'12 Q3'11 YoY% JAN-SEP'12 JAN-SEP'11 YoY% MADTK ,261 1, ,621 3, MRFTK ,960 2, Freight factor%
38 Operating Statistics Passenger Yield (Including Fuel Surcharge) (THB/Km) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year 2009 Year 2010 Year 2011 Year 2012 Freight Yield (Including Fuel Surcharge) (THB/Km) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Year 2009 Year 2010 Year 2011 Year Investor Relations Department
39 Aircraft Utilization Aircraft Utilization Hours / Day / Aircraft Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Investor Relations Department
40 Thank you 40 Investor Relations Department
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