BUILDING THE WENATCHEE MARKET

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "BUILDING THE WENATCHEE MARKET"

Kristin Mitchell
5 years ago
Views:

1 BUILDING THE WENATCHEE MARKET PANGBORN MEMORIAL AIRPORT AUGUST 2018 THIS IS A CENTERED DATELINE 1

2 VOLAIRE S ROUTES TO SUCCESS BLI SEA PQI MSP RST PBG SJC GJT DEN PUB MCI SGF PIA BLV CGI ORD CMI IND SDF CLE PIT LCK CKB LWB SHD BWI IAD DCA EWR SBP LAX IFP PHX AZA MEI CLT MYR TUS AUS VPS UST PIE FLL 2

3 AGENDA OUR PROGRESS BAY AREA RECRUITMENT WINS PASSENGER GROWTH IMPROVING TRENDS THE AIR SERVICE LANDSCAPE MERGERS, MERGERS, AND SOME MERGERS PILOT SHORTAGE STRATEGY FOR FUTURE AIR SERVICE AIRLINE STRATEGY TARGETS AND TIMELINE 3

4 TOPIC ONE OUR PROGRESS 4

5 OUR GUARANTEE IS $1.1 MILLION 5

6 WENATCHEE CAPUTRES 19% MORE PASSENGERS THAN IT DID IN 2013, WITH VERY SIMILAR SERVICE, AS MORE PEOPLE FLY LOCAL WENATCHEE (EAT) PASSENGERS PER DAY EACH WAY (PDEW) 2013 VS Seattle Wenatchee 140 Spokane Pasco Portland SOURCE: VOLAIRE AVIATION CONSULTING ANALYSIS 6

7 WENATCHEE CAPUTRES 19% MORE PASSENGERS THAN IT DID IN 2013, WITH VERY SIMILAR SERVICE, AS MORE PEOPLE FLY LOCAL WENATCHEE (EAT) PASSENGERS PER DAY EACH WAY (PDEW) 2013 VS Seattle Seattle Wenatchee 140 Wenatchee 166 Spokane Spokane Pasco Pasco Portland Portland SOURCE: VOLAIRE AVIATION CONSULTING ANALYSIS 7

THE WENATCHEE MARKET GENERATES 30% MORE PASSENGERS THAN IT DID FIVE YEARS AGO ENOUGH TO FILL 13 FLIGHTS/DAY WENATCHEE CATCHMENT AREA PASSENGERS PER DAY EACH WAY (PDEW) BY AIRPORT USED 2013 VS.

8 THE WENATCHEE MARKET GENERATES 30% MORE PASSENGERS THAN IT DID FIVE YEARS AGO ENOUGH TO FILL 13 FLIGHTS/DAY WENATCHEE CATCHMENT AREA PASSENGERS PER DAY EACH WAY (PDEW) BY AIRPORT USED 2013 VS Seattle 441 Seattle 577 Wenatchee 140 Wenatchee 166 Spokane 97 Spokane 166 Pasco 41 Pasco 45 Portland 25 TOTAL: 744 TOTAL: 968 Portland SOURCE: VOLAIRE AVIATION CONSULTING ANALYSIS 9

9 SINCE FLY WENATCHEE DEBUTED, PANGBORN AIRPORT HAS SEEN ITS STRONGEST-EVER LOAD FACTORS 90.0% 80.0% AVERAGE LOAD FACTOR AT PANGBORN MEMORIAL AIRPORT YEAR ENDED FIRST QUARTER 2010 YEAR ENDED FIRST QUARTER 2018 Load Factor 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 60.1% 61.6% 64.4% 62.0% 68.2% 73.6% 77.2% 81.3% 80.8% 20.0% 10.0% RE-BRAND AND MARKETING PROGRAM 0.0% YE1Q10 YE1Q11 YE1Q12 YE1Q13 YE1Q14 YE1Q15 YE1Q16 YE1Q17 YE1Q18 SOURCE: AIRLINE DATA, INC. 10

10 TOPIC TWO THE AIR SERVICE LANDSCAPE 12

11 US AIRLINES IN THE 1980s 13

12 REMAINING MAJORS 14

13 MAJORS PLUS NEW ENTRANTS 15

14 STEPS ALONG THE PLANNING PATH MUST FIND STRATEGY FIT MUST BELIEVE IN LONG TERM SUCCESS MUST FIND AIRCRAFT TIME MUST FIND GATE SPACE AT HUB 16

15 STEPS ALONG THE PLANNING PATH MUST FIND STRATEGY FIT MUST BELIEVE IN LONG TERM SUCCESS MUST FIND AIRCRAFT TIME MUST FIND GATE SPACE AT HUB MUST FIND CREW 17

PILOT SHORTAGE IS WORSENING CUMULATIVE SHORTAGE OF US AIRLINE PILOTS FORECAST FOR 2017 2026 16000 14000 12000 Cumulative Pilot Shortage 8.

16 PILOT SHORTAGE IS WORSENING CUMULATIVE SHORTAGE OF US AIRLINE PILOTS FORECAST FOR Cumulative Pilot Shortage 8.3 PILOTS REQUIRED PER AIRCRAFT 1,800 AIRCRAFT AT RISK BY ,150 12,900 10,650 8,600 6,500 4,800 3,100 1, SOURCES: REGIONAL AIRLINE ASSOCIATION AND UNIVERSITY OF NORTH DAKOTA 18

17 FEWER FLIGHTS, LARGER AIRCRAFT DAILY US DEPARTURES AND SEATS PER DEPARTURE YEAR ENDED SECOND QUARTER 2008 YEAR ENDED SECOND QUARTER 2017 Departures/Day Seats per Departure 68,000 66,000 64,000 62,000 60,000 58,000 65, ,000 54,000 52,000 60,217 58,664 59,171 58,678 57,304 56,585 56,479 57,181 57, ,000 YE2Q08 YE2Q09 YE2Q10 YE2Q11 YE2Q12 YE2Q13 YE2Q14 YE2Q15 YE2Q16 YE2Q17 SOURCE: AIRLINE DATA, INC. 0 19

FEWER FLIGHTS, LARGER AIRCRAFT DAILY US DEPARTURES AND SEATS PER DEPARTURE YEAR ENDED SECOND QUARTER 2008 YEAR ENDED SECOND QUARTER 2017 Departures/Day Seats per Departure 68,000 115.

18 FEWER FLIGHTS, LARGER AIRCRAFT DAILY US DEPARTURES AND SEATS PER DEPARTURE YEAR ENDED SECOND QUARTER 2008 YEAR ENDED SECOND QUARTER 2017 Departures/Day Seats per Departure 68, ,000 64,000 DEPARTURES DOWN 13.5% AIRCRAFT SIZE UP 18.1% , ,000 58,000 56,000 54,000 52,000 65, , ,664 59,171 58, , ,585 56,479 57,181 57, ,000 YE2Q08 YE2Q09 YE2Q10 YE2Q11 YE2Q12 YE2Q13 YE2Q14 YE2Q15 YE2Q16 YE2Q17 SOURCE: AIRLINE DATA, INC

19 TOPIC THREE STRATEGY FOR FUTURE AIR SERVICE 21

20 NEW SERVICE TARGETS EAT MAIN TARGET: BAY AREA San Francisco Bay Area SOURCE: VOLAIRE AVIATION ANALYSIS 22

21 NEW SERVICE TARGETS EAT MAIN TARGET: BAY AREA OTHER NETWORK CARRIER TARGET: DENVER Denver San Francisco Bay Area SOURCE: VOLAIRE AVIATION ANALYSIS 23

CARRIER TARGET: DENVER LOW COST CARRIER TARGETS: LAS

22 NEW SERVICE TARGETS EAT San Francisco Bay Area Las Vegas Denver MAIN TARGET: BAY AREA OTHER NETWORK CARRIER TARGET: DENVER LOW COST CARRIER TARGETS: LAS VEGAS PHOENIX Phoenix SOURCE: VOLAIRE AVIATION ANALYSIS 24

23 REFINING SERVICE OPTIONS AIRLINE STRATEGY MORE IMPORTANT THAN OUR PREFERENCE SFO OAK SJC SOURCE: VOLAIRE AVIATION ANALYSIS 25

24 REFINING SERVICE OPTIONS AIRLINE STRATEGY MORE IMPORTANT THAN OUR PREFERENCE SAN FRANCISCO (SFO): SFO OAK SJC SOURCE: VOLAIRE AVIATION ANALYSIS 26

25 REFINING SERVICE OPTIONS AIRLINE STRATEGY MORE IMPORTANT THAN OUR PREFERENCE SAN FRANCISCO (SFO): SAN JOSE (SJC): SFO OAK SJC SOURCE: VOLAIRE AVIATION ANALYSIS 27

26 REFINING SERVICE OPTIONS AIRLINE STRATEGY MORE IMPORTANT THAN OUR PREFERENCE SAN FRANCISCO (SFO): SAN JOSE (SJC): SFO OAK OAKLAND (OAK): SJC SOURCE: VOLAIRE AVIATION ANALYSIS 28

27 THE UNITED HUB AT SFO OFFERS CONNECTIONS TO 77 CITIES, ACCESSING 689 PAX/DAY AT A $181 AVERAGE ONE WAY FARE SOURCE: VOLAIRE AVIATION ANALYSIS 29

28 THE ALASKA OPERATION AT SJCOFFERS CONNECTIONS TO 14 CITIES, ACCESSING 292 PAX/DAY AT A $165 ONE WAY FARE SOURCE: VOLAIRE AVIATION ANALYSIS 30

29 COST OF PROVIDING SERVICE EAT WENATCHEE SAN FRANCISCO/SAN JOSE 1.9 BLOCK HOURS $7,800 PER SEGMENT ONCE-DAILY CRJ200 OR EQUIVALENT $5.7 MILLION PER YEAR San Francisco Bay Area SOURCE: VOLAIRE AVIATION ANALYSIS 31

30 OUR RISK MITIGATION PACKAGE MINIMUM REVENUE GUARANTEE $401,395 IN LOCAL CASH CONTRIBUTIONS $750,000 SCASD GRANT FUNDING $1,151,395 TOTAL FUNDING REPRESENTS 10% OF TWO-YEAR RISK AIRPORT INCENTIVES FEE WAIVERS AND MARKETING TBA COMMUNITY INCENTIVES NEEDED IN-KIND AND MARKETING SUPPORT SOURCE: VOLAIRE AVIATION ANALYSIS 32

31 STRATEGY AND TIMELINE AIRLINE INTERFACE/MEETINGS NOW SPRING HQ MEETINGS FALL 2018 CONFERENCES TAKEOFF, MEMPHIS OCTOBER 2018 ROUTES, QUEBEC CITY FEBRUARY 2019 VOLAIRE, TUCSON APRIL 2019 JUMPSTART, NASHVILLE JUNE 2019 DEVELOP MARKETING PLAN/FUNDING AIRPORT, PORT, AND PARTNERS NOW SPRING BEST CASE SERVICE LAUNCH JUNE 2019 SOURCE: VOLAIRE AVIATION ANALYSIS 33

32 JACK PENNING MANAGING PARTNER VOLAIRE AVIATION PORTLAND, OREGON THIS IS A CENTERED DATELINE 34

Questions regarding the Incentive Program should be directed to Sara Meess at or by phone at

Questions regarding the Incentive Program should be directed to Sara Meess at or by phone at Ogden-Hinckley New Entrant Incentive Program Request for Letters of Interest Amendment No. 1 The City of Ogden, Utah (the City ) is seeking Letters of Interest from air carriers not currently serving the