Session 6: The 2017 ReNAPRI Outlook on Maize, Wheat, Rice, Soybeans and Sugar

Transcription

1 Session 6: The 217 ReNAPRI Outlook on Maize, Wheat, Rice, Soybeans and Sugar Session Moderator: Prof. Ferdi Meyer Presenters: Brian Chisanga and Tracy Davids

2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study was made possible by a number of funders, including the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the Feed the Future Initiative s Innovation Lab for Food Security

3 Baseline Assumptions Stable weather conditions thus less volatility Current policies remain in place business as usual Trade policies > absence of trade controls unless already implemented Producer support / subsidies remain as is Government procurement policies Oil price increasing from $45 in 216 to $63 by 222

4 Baseline assumptions: Growth 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Growth in real GDP: Outlook vs. Past Decade Total Past Decade Outlook 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 1% 2% Per Capita Past Decade Outlook Source: IMF, 217

5 Baseline Assumptions: Growth In most instances growth slows from past, particularly in per capita terms Past decade growth underpinned by three main factors Improved business and macro economic environment High commodity prices Accommodative financial conditions globally External factors less supportive going forward

6 Baseline Assumptions: Exchange Rate Rate Local Currency / US $ Depreciation p.a Past Decade Outlook South Africa % -8.92% 1.9% Kenya % 2.32% 2.83% Zambia % -7.82% 5.34% Tanzania % 3.37% 2.84% Malawi % 2.79% 4.5% Mozambique % 7.12% 2.5% DRC % 41.67% 24.66% Uganda % 5.84% 2.96% Source: IMF, 217

7 Kg per capita per year Food Demand: Maize Per capita maize consumption Total Food Demand: 6.8 Mil ton additional maize by 222

8 Demand: Wheat and Rice Wheat Rice Kg / Capita Kg / capita South Africa Kenya Zambia Tanzania Mozambique Tanzania

9 Baseline Assumptions: Population Million People Population Growth Growth from 216 to Zimbabwe (7%) Uganda (22%) DRC (19%) Mozambique (15%) Malawi (19%) Tanzania (19%) Zambia (21%) Kenya (17%) South Africa (4%) Source: IMF, 217

10 Significant growth in food use Growth in consumption: 222 vs additional growth required Rice (2 Countries).65 Mil tons Wheat (4 Countries) 1.2 Mil tons Maize (9 Countries) 6.9 Mil tons Thousand Tons South Africa Kenya Zambia Tanzania Malawi Mozambique DRC Uganda Zimbabwe

11 Regional Maize Consumption Million Tons Total Feed Consumption Feed consumption Regional Feed Use South African Feed Use Zambian Feed Use

12 Maize Outlook Production, Trade and Prices Kenya Tanzania Uganda Malawi Mozambique South Africa Zambia Zimbabwe DRC

13 Maize Regional Overview Thousand tons million tons Consumption Other & losses Consumption Feed Consumption Food Production Net trade

14 Production growth Avg. annual growth (26 216) Avg. annual growth Outlook ( ) Area Yield Area Yield Absolute Growth Maize area planted ha 222 ha Absolute Growth Yields t/ha 222 t/ha South Africa.57% 1.55%.38% 2.4% Zambia 5.72% 2.7% 1.17% 2.34% Kenya 2.32%.48% 1.52% 1.38% Tanzania 4.65% 2.41% 1.91% 2.67% Malawi.1% 2.26%.48% 2.23% Mozambique.28% 1.3%.1%.24% DRC 2.6%.24% 6.9%.91% Uganda 3.58% 4% 1.8% 2% Zimbabwe.38%.75% 2.86%.62%

15 Yield Growth & Total area Ton/ha 7, 6, 5, 4, Million hectares 3, 2, 1, 1 5, Total area: Right Axis Yield: South Africa Yield: Zambia Yield: Kenya Yield: Tanzania Yield: Malawi Yield: Mozambique Yield: DRC Yields: Uganda Yields: Zimbabwe

16 Maize Trade: Regional Overview Thousand tons Total Net Trade South Africa Kenya Zambia Tanzania Malawi Mozambique DRC Uganda Zimbabwe

17 Surplus Producers Thousand tons South Africa Thousand tons Zambia Consumption: Feed Production Consumption: Food Net Trade Consumption: Food

18 Baseline Prices: Maize US $ / ton World Price: US Gulf South Africa: Ranfontein White Zambia: Lusaka

19 Baseline Prices: Maize US $ / ton World Price: US Gulf South Africa: Ranfontein White Zambia: Lusaka Malawi: Lilongwe Mozambique: National Avg

20 Baseline Prices: Maize US $ / ton World Price: US Gulf South Africa: Ranfontein White Zambia: Lusaka Malawi: Lilongwe Mozambique: National Avg Zimbabwe: Harare

21 Baseline Prices: Maize US $ / ton World Price: US Gulf Kenya: Nairobi Tanzania: Arusha Uganda: Kampala

22 Weather impact on yields & prices US $ / ton World Price: US Gulf Kenya: Nairobi Tanzania: Arusha Mozambique: National Avg Zimbabwe: Harare South Africa: Randfontein White Zambia: Lusaka Malawi: Lilongwe Uganda: Kampala

23 Wheat Outlook Kenya Tanzania South Africa Zambia

24 Wheat Overview: KEN, TZA, ZAF, ZAM Thousand tons Consumption Feed Consumption Food Production Net trade

25 Wheat Net imports Thousand Tons Important sources of imports: Black Sea: 3 Mil USD in 216 Germany: 11 Mil USD in 216 Canada: 68 Mil USD in 216 Australia: 12 Mil USD in Total Tanzania Kenya South Africa Zambia

26 Wheat expansion in Zambia Thousand ha Kwacha/ton Area Planted Import Parity Domestic Wheat Price (Lusaka) Export Parity

27 Baseline Prices: Wheat US $ / ton World Price: US Gulf South Africa: Randfontein Zambia: Lusaka Tanzania: Arusha Kenya: Nairobi

28 Wheat Production Outlook Thousand hectares Avg annual growth area past decade: Zambia Tanzania Kenya Tons / ha Zambia Area Kenya Area Tanzania Area South Africa Area Zambia Yield Irrigation Kenya Yield Tanzania Yield South Africa Yield

29 Soybean Outlook South Africa Zambia Malawi Mozambique

30 Soybean area expansion Thousand Ha % 25% Soybean Area expansion 6 2% 5 15% 4 1% 3 5% 2 % 1 5% 29 > > 222 South Africa Zambia Malawi Mozambique

31 Soybean area expansion Thousand Ha % 25% Soybean Area expansion 2% 15 15% 1 1% 5% 5 % 5% 29 > > 222 Zambia Malawi Mozambique

32 Soybean Prices USD per ton Soybeans, Illinois South Africa Zambia Malawi Mozambique

33 Trade in Soybeans Thousand tons South Africa: 34 Kt in 21 to 175 Kt in 215 (Dedicated soybean) Zambia: 125Kt in 21 to 375Kt in South Africa Net trade Zambia Net trade Malawi Net trade Mozambique Net trade

34 Trade in Soybean Products 2 2 Oilcake Oil Thousand tons Thousand tons South Africa Zambia Malawi Mozambique South Africa Zambia Malawi Mozambique

35 Concluding: What could be different?? Key uncertainties facing the Outlook presented Weather following drought in 215 and 216, record harvest 217 what next? Macroeconomics eg. Exchange rates? Growth? Productivity gains Malabo declaration goals? Policy

36 Weather affecting prices and trade Thousand tons USD per ton Price 217 Price

37 Increased productivity growth in Tanzania maize Double rate of yield growth over outlook Avg annual growth of 5.7% per annum, National average yield to 2.51 tons per hectare by 225.

38 Increased productivity growth in Tanzania maize USD per ton Tanzania: Baseline Tanzania: Scenario

39 Increased productivity growth in Tanzania maize USD per ton Tanzania: Baseline Tanzania: Scenario Kenya: Baseline Kenya: Scenario Uganda: Baseline Uganda: Scenario

40 Increased productivity growth in Tanzania maize Country Baseline Scenario 1: Increased Yield Scenario 2: Increased yield and transport cost reduction Volume imported from Tanzania Thousand tons South Africa... Zambia Malawi Mozambique Kenya Uganda Zimbabwe... Other

41 South Africa Zambia Sugar Outlook

42 Sugar South Africa Production, Consumption, Trade and Prices Thousand tons Sugar production Sugar domestic use Sugar exports

43 Sugar South Africa Impact of sugar tariff 44, SA cane area: Ref price $65 42, 4, 38, 36, 34, 32, Baseline Scenario Ref:$65/no tax Scenario Ref:$65/ sugar tax

44 Sugar Zambia Production, Consumption and Trade Thousand tons Sugar Domestic Use Sugar Production Sugar Exports

45 Thank you!