US France. Germany Japan. Switzerland. Canada Spain. Belgium. Hong Kong. Netherlands. Russia China. Italy. Sweden. Australia. Denmark. Austria.

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1 s OFDI outflows rose in the world rankings from 13 th in 27 to 9 th in 28 and then to 6 th in 29 Chinese FDI into Africa Major Dynamics and Trends Dirk Kotze Council for the Promotion of International Trade Beijing, 28 April 211 Top 2 World FDI Outflows (D bn, 27-29) Austria Brazil In 27, ranked 13th Virgin Is. Luxembourg In 28, ranked 9th Virgin Is. Luxembourg In 29, ranked 6th Source: WIR; THE BEIJING AXIS Analysis s resolute going abroad policy is elevating the nation in the global rankings of OFDI stock How far will china move up the rankings in coming years? Top 2 World FDI Outward Stock (D bn, 29) British Virgin Islands Singapore Taiwan ranked 15 th in 29 ranked 19 th in th in 215? World Ranking of OFDI Stock (24 21F) Year Position 215F 11 th? th th th th th th Africa s share of s OFDI (D mn) Top 1 sectors of s OFDI stock in Africa (%, 29) % 5.8% 3.2% 2.5% 5.9% 9.8% 2.6% % 14% 3% 3% 3% 4% 16% 22% 3 Mining Manufacturing Construction Finance Business Service Wholesale & Retailing Science, Technology and Geological Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fisheries s Source: WIR 21; The Beijing Axis Analysis Source: Chinese Statistical Bulletin of OFDI; Xinhua; The Beijing Axis Analysis Page 1

2 OFDI (capital) stock* in Africa by country (D bn, 29) s investment relationship (OFDI) with Africa (D mn, 29) OECD Turkey Official Chinese OFDI stock in Africa: D 9.3 bn Algeria DRC Nigeria Egypt Zambia Ethiopia Chad Ghana Madagascar Niger Kenya Congo Guinea Tanzania E. Guinea Sudan Botswana Morocco Mozambique s *Note: OFDI stock is a rough approximation of the cumulative total investment. It is not a simple year to year cumulative total, since factors such as depreciation and capital withdrawal are factored in Source: OECD; Commerce Yearbook; The Beijing Axis Analysis Note: Africa s OFDI in is very small; the is amount negligible when compared to s OFDI in Africa Source: OFDI Annual Report 29; The Beijing Axis Analysis Major Chinese investments in Africa (26 present) Value (D mn) Imports from Africa (29) Exports to Africa (29) 6 ICBC acquires Oil stake in Standard Bank, /Ferrous Timber 5 Platinum Chemicals Port 4 CNPC buys Agadem oil block, Niger Manganese Bauxite Power-Electricity Electrical equip. Banking 3 CNOOC acquires 45% of OML 13, Nigeria Union buys referies at the Bong Unicom acquires D mn 2 iron mine, Liberia 75% in Nitel, Nigeria > 1, 5, 1, 1 1, 5, 5 1, Source: World Bank; The Beijing Axis Analysis Note: Only deals that are finished, completed, or signed are included here Source: Various; The Beijing Axis Analysis Page 2

s imports of selected commodities from Africa (D bn, 1995-28) s imports from Africa as a % of total imports Tobacco Manganese Chromium Crude Oil Platinum - High growth rate - High quantity Petroleum

3 s imports of selected commodities from Africa (D bn, ) s imports from Africa as a % of total imports Tobacco Manganese Chromium Crude Oil Platinum - High growth rate - High quantity Petroleum Gases - High growth rate - Low quantity Ferroalloys Wood Steel Cotton Electronics 1 1 CAGR Crude Oil Manganese Chromium Angola Saudi Arabia Iran Oman Gabon Brazil Malaysia Indonesia Turkey India Oman Pakistan Platinum DRC Congo Cuba Zambia India Israel Note: Bubble size is based on the commodity s share of total commodity imports from Africa in 28 Source: UN Statistical Database; The Beijing Axis Analysis Source: UN Statistical Database; The Beijing Axis Analysis PGE & Concentration Concentration Platinum,, Concentration North West Limpopo Gauteng Mpumalanga Platinum,, Concentration Concentration Angola: Zaire Uige Bengo Cuanza Norte Malanje Lunda Norte Manganese Concentration Concentration Concentration Orange Free State KwaZulu Natal Concentration Cuanza Sul Lunda Sul Northern Cape Benguela Huambo Bie Moxico Eastern Cape Huila Western Cape Namibe Cunene Cuando Cubango Source: African s Handbook 21; Intierra Mapping. Note: This map is not exhaustive. Source: African s Handbook 21; Intierra Mapping Page 3

4 Tanzania: Kagera Mara Mwanza Shinyanga Arusha Zambia: Kilimanjaro Kigoma Rukwa Tabora Mbeya Manyara Dodoma Singida Iringa Pemba North Tanga Pemba South Zanzibar North Zanzibar South Zanzibar West Dar es Salaam Pwani North-Western belt Luapula Northern Eastern Morogoro Lindi Lusaka Ruvuma Mtwara Western Southern Source: African s Handbook 21; Intierra Mapping Source: African s Handbook 21; Intierra Mapping Zimbabwe: Matebeleland North 4 West Midlands East Manicaland DR Congo: Bas-Congo Bandundu Equateur Orientale Nord- Kivu Maniema Sud- Kasai-Oriental Kivu Kasai- Occidental Matebeleland South Masvingo Katanga Source: African s Handbook 21; Intierra Mapping Source: African s Handbook 21; Intierra Mapping Page 4

5 Ghana: Upper West Upper East Northern Chinese OFDI flows and select major Chinese deals (D bn, 2 215F) 9 8 Top Ten Deals in Africa* D bn CNOOC (Nigeria) 3 ICBC () 5.6 Brong-Ahanfo Ashanti CNOOC (Ghana) 5 CNPC (Niger) 5 Eximbank (DRC) 3 CMEC, Eximbank (Gabon) 3 Union Ltd. (Liberia) 2.6 Unicom (Nigeria) 2.5 CNOOC (Nigeria) 2.3 Liaoning Huajin Tongda Chemicals Co (Angola) 2.1 CNOOC Oil block: D 3 bn CNOOC Jubilee oil field: D 5 bn Service Industry? More? Greenfield Manufacturing? Eastern Volta 3 2 ICBC Standard Bank D 5.6 bn CNPC - Oil block: D 5 bn Alternative Energy? Western 1 Eximbank JV in DRC: D 3 bn High-Tech? F 12F 13F 14F 15F Source: African s Handbook 21; Intierra Mapping *Note: The top ten deals are meant to provide a perspective of s investment appetite. Not all of these deals have been successful, for example CNOOC s D 5 billion bid for Ghana s Jubilee oil field was rejected Source: Chinese Statistical Bulletin of OFDI; Heritage Foundation; The Beijing Axis Analysis Dirk Kotze General Manager: Strategic s Mobile SA: +27 () Mobile : Tel: + 27 () Fax: +27 () dirk@thebeijingaxis.com Page 5

Where are the poor: Region and District Poverty Estimates for Tanzania, 2012

Where are the poor: Region and District Poverty Estimates for Tanzania, 2012 Blandina Kilama bkilama@repoa.or.tz SK Conference Room, Umoja House Building, Ground Floor 30 June 2016 Outline Overview Population,