Computer Simulation for Evaluating Visitor Conflicts

Transcription

1 Computer Simulation for Evaluating Visitor Conflicts

2 Why use Simulation? To acquire a comprehensive and dynamic understanding of visitor behavior and their interactions across the landscape (space and time). To provide a framework for incorporating visitor information into the planning and management process.

3 What use Simulation? Measure visitor interactions that are difficult or expensive to do in the field; Test alternative management scenario s and putting recreation management into an exploratory and experimental framework; Communicating complex inter-related issues in recreation management to the public and decision makers

4 RBSim Recreation Behavior Simulation Simulates human behavior on linear recreation networks. Allows recreation managers to test alternative management scenarios. Simulates complex interactions between: Management actions Environmental conditions Human behavior

5 RBSim technology framework RBSim integrates three technologies: Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to capture environmental conditions and recreation facilities Intelligent agents to simulate human behavior

6 RBSim imports environmental data from GIS Road and Trail networks Facility locations (Parking lots, Visitor Centres, campgrounds etc.) Facility attributes (visitor capacity, typical visit duration, site qualities etc.) Elevation data (used to calculate slope, and intervisibility)

7 Agents Agent Travel Modes Cars Buses Helicopters Pedestrian Agent Personality Preferences for site attractions Agent Rules Trip Planning Logic

8 Agent Rules Rules are comprised of triggers or events generated by changes in the internal state of the agent, changes in the network or changes in global events. The behavior generated by a rule causes the agent to perform some action such as to find a new path to the facility. IF Travelmode = car AND Locale = 12 Apostles AND LocaleEntry = True THEN Find Carpark

9 Way Finding Logic of Agents Alternative paths are determined by: Preferences for site attractions Travel Time to alternative destinations Time remaining in Agent s trip The number of facilities along a trail that satisfies the current motivation list The available capacity of facilities. The order and applicability of agent rules Agents use a combination of algorithms and rules to maximize satisfaction and minimize travel time.

10 Way finding Example Loch Ard Gorge Because agents have different personalities, rules, level of fitness, and trip durations, the trip planning logic results in different choice behavior between agents.

11 Simulation Applications Broken Arrow Canyon, Arizona Mountain biking, hiking, commercial jeep tours Grand Canyon River Management Study, Arizona River Rafting Trips on the Colorado River Misty Fjords National Monument, Alaska Visitor Use study (floatplanes, kayaks, recreational fishing, and cruise ships) Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness Backpack/Commercial Stock Port Campbell National Park, Australia Transportation/Visitor Management Study

12 Visitor Monitoring and Simulation Applications Joshua Tree National Park, California Rock Climbing Study Frank Church River of No-return Wilderness, Idaho Backpacker/Recreation and Commercial Stock Las Cienegas Conservation Area, Arizona Visitor Monitoring and Impact Ironwood Forest National Monument, Arizona Visitor Monitoring and Impact (illegal Activity)

13 Visitor Monitoring and Simulation Applications Chugach National Forest Prince William Sound Spring Black Bear Harvesting model Inyo National Forest John Muir and Ansel Adams Wilderness, California Overnight Backpack Use, Day Use and Commercial Stock Saguaro National Park, Arizona Day and Overnight use (including recreational horseback riding, hiking, mountain biking, backpacking, ultra running, driving etc.)

14 Commercial Jeep Tours in Broken Arrow Canyon Sedona, Arizona

15 Commercial Jeep Tours in Broken Arrow Canyon Sedona, Arizona Management Issues Baseline study to define recreation use patterns Travel Commercial Jeep Tours, Day Use Hiking, Mountain Biking Temporal Scale Season March November Identify Peak periods of use Conflicts between Jeeps, Mountain Bikes and Hikers

16 Commercial Jeep Tours in Broken Arrow Canyon Sedona, Arizona Simulation Characteristics Small Geographic Scale (10 miles x 10 miles) Small Temporal Scale Trips constructed from travel logs, interviews, observation Simulation Results Peak Use Periods Busiest Locations Conflicts between recreation groups Encounter levels

17 Commercial Jeep Tours in Broken Arrow Canyon Sedona, Arizona Management Implications Recreation Use Limits Reduction in Commercial allocation Alternative Trail Development Implementation of Wilderness Permits Outputs Used to directly to derive jeep allocations

18 Hikers, Mountain Bikers and Jeep Tours

19 Port Campbell National Park, Australia

20 Study Site Twelve Apostles Port Campbell National Park Great Ocean Road Victoria

21 12 Apostles Master plan

22 Port Campbell National Park, Australia Management Issues Day Use Facilities Management for Parking, Visitor Center and Viewing Platforms Projection of visitor use for 5 & 10 years Analysis of new master plan Simulation Characteristics Day use simulation of 95th percentile criterion day based on traffic counts during peak periods Travel Mode Car, Bus and Pedestrians

23 Port Campbell National Park, Australia Management Implications Level of Service On-site regulation Size of overflow parking & viewing platforms Need to balance visitation across day with different locations

24 Problem: Crowding, lack of parking, long queues

25 Scenarios Growth in visitor numbers Increase car and bus parking Relocate parking New Visitor Center New toilet block Vehicular/Pedestrian separation

26 Scenarios Scenario 1 - Conditions prior to 2001 Scenario Master Plan Facility S1 S2 %U %U Ñ#Y #³ %U %U %U %U %U Viewing Platform Informal Lookout 345 People 5 People 345 People 30 People %U Great Ocean Road Great Ocean Road Bus Park 6 Buses 12 Buses r r r r r Meters %U N r r r r r r Legend %U Bus Park %U Car Park #³ Trailer Park Ñ Visitor Centre #Y Toilet r Viewing Platform r Informal Lookout Road Trail Car Park 30 Cars 245 Cars Visitor Centre None 100 People Toilet None 29 People Trailer Park None 12 Cars

27 Simulation Runs Scenario 1 Pre-master plan Scenario Master plan

28 Results Visit duration Visitor Satisfaction Crowding, queuing times Impact of visitor numbers on facility capacity

29 Average Queuing Time (minutes) Visitor Satisfaction Average queuing times for parking Current Facility Projections v 2006 v 2011 Average Queuing Time at Car Parks Hour of the Day Current Facility Current Facility Current Facility Average queuing times at car parks increase to almost 2 minutes in 2011

30 Minimum Capacity Available (%) Facility Management available car parking Current Facility Projections v 2011 Minimum Available Car Park Capacity 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Hour of the Day Current Capacity: 165 spaces + 40 overflow spaces Current Facility Current Facility Current Facility (with overflow) Current Facility (with overflow) The car park is full from 1:00 PM TO 5:00 by 2006.

31 Average Visitor Encounters Visitor satisfaction Visual Encounters Current Facility Projections v 2011 Average Visitor Encounters at Lookouts with Overflow Car Park Open Current Facility Current Facility Current Facility (with overflow) Current Facility (with overflow) Hour of the Day Crowding at peak times increases dramatically in 2011

32 Minimum Capacity Available (%) Visitor Satisfaction crowding Current Facility Projections v 2011 Minimum Available Boardwalk Capacity with Overflow Car Park Open 100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Hour of the Day Capacity: 325 Current Facility Current Facility Current Facility (with overflow) Current Facility (with overflow) Opening overflow parking causes crowding at boardwalks

33 So What? We have demonstrated the utility of simulation in a broad range of applications and settings. Over the past 15 years, we have developed standard practices and automated many processes that, in the past, made simulation complex and expensive. Visitor simulation is a tool that can be used NOW!

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