Latin America: Outlook and Challenges Alejandro Werner Director Western Hemisphere Department

Transcription

1 International Monetary Fund Washington, DC. May, 3 Latin America: Outlook and Challenges Alejandro Werner Director Western Hemisphere Department

2 Developments and Outlook Policy Challenges and Priorities

3 Growth moderating toward potential, with little spare capacity (pick up in Brazil after deceleration) Selected Latin America: Real GDP Growth (-month percent change, seasonally adjusted, quarterly) percentil me di an Q Q3 Q Q3 Q Q3 Q Q3 Q Q3 Q Q3 Latin America: Output Gaps (Percent of potential GDP) me di an 9 percentile range 3 Sources: National authorities and IMF staff estimates. ¹ Includes data for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru and Venezuela. Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook; and IMF staff estimates. 9 percentile range for all Latin American countries (excludes the Caribbean).

4 Robust domestic demand leading to some deterioration in current accounts despite strong terms of trade Latin America: Domestic Demand vs. Real GDP Growth, Real Domestic Demand Growth 8 PER CHL ECU URY CRI COL GTM MEX BOL SLV BRA DOM Real 3 GDP Growth Source: National authorities; IMF, World Economic Outlook; and IMF staff calculations. Selected Latin America: Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP, simple average) Financially Integrated Commodity Exporters Mexico Other Commodity Exporters Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook; and IMF staff calculations. / Financially integrated includes Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Uruguay. / Other commodity exporters includes Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay and Venezuela.

5 In IT countries, inflation is generally contained, although it remains above the mid-point of the target in most cases Selected LA: Headline Inflation less Target Inflation (-month percent change) Min/Max range me di an Sources: Country authorities; and IMF staff calculations. ¹ Shading presents range of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay.

6 Rapid private sector credit (bank and nonbank) growth 3 - Real Bank Credit Growth (annual percent change) 7 8 Brazil 9 3 Sources: Haver Analytics and IMF staff calculations. / Simple average for Chile, Colombia, Peru and Uruguay. 8 Corporate Bond Issuance ($US billions) Other LA¹ Sources: Dealogic; and IMF staff calculations. / Others includes Chile, Colombia, Peru and Uruguay. First time Issuances by Corporates (in percent of total number of issuances) Sources: Dealogic; and IMF staff calculations..

7 fueled by strong capital inflows in most countries Selected Latin America: Gross Financial Inflows (in percent of GDP) Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Peru 8 - Other investment Sources: Haver Analytics; IMF World Economic Outlook ; and IMF staff calculations.

8 leading also to increased foreign holdings of securities Selected Latin America: Nonresident Holdings of Sovereign Debt Issued in Local Currency ¹ De c- Nonresident holdings (percent of 3. Peru 33. Jun-8 Latest 3. Brazil Sources: Haver Analytics; national authorities; IMF, World Economic Outlook; and IMF staff calculations. Shaded areas are periods where VIX increased by at least points over a quarter. Latin America includes Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru..

9 Outlook: Gradual pickup in 3, driven mainly by Brazil (with moderation elsewhere) Real GDP Growth Latin America and Caribbean Financially-Integrated Economies WEO April Brazil Mexico Chile.9..9 Colombia... Peru Uruguay Memorandum: World Advanced Economies... Emerging Economies...3 Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 3.

10 New Policy Challenges

11 Over the past decade: output growth has been strong Latin America: Real GDP Growth (percent) - Avg =. Avg. 3 Avg. 99- = Real GDP Growth (percent) LAC.7. Argentina. 7. Brazil.9 3. Chile..7 Colombia.8. Ecuador.. Mexico 3.. Peru 3.. Uruguay.. Venezuela.8. World Source: IMF World Economic Outlook and Fund Staff calculations.

12 driven by large and persistent increase in termsof-trade Latin America: Terms-of-trade and Income Windfalls (during upswing, medians) 8 Terms-of-trade Shock (cumulative percent increase) 8 Income Windfall (cumulative, percent of GDP) Income Windfall : averaged percent of domestic income on an annual basis and close to 9 percent on a cumulative basis (median of those experiencing booms). Venezuela, Bolivia, and Chile stand out. Brazil and Uruguay on the other end of the distribution. Source: Adler and Magud (3), and Chapter of May 3 Regional Economic Outlook-Western Hemisphere. Medians for identified episodes of terms-of-trade booms.

13 ... easy external financing conditions Latin America Spreads and US Treasury Yields, LAC EMBI+ spread 8 (basis points) US-yr TBill yield (percent, rhs) Dec-97 Dec-99 Dec- Dec-3 Dec- Dec-7 Dec-9 Dec- Latin America: External Debt Service, 99- (percent of GDP) Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, JP Morgan, and Bloomberg.

14 and lots of domestic spare capacity Latin America: Unemployment Rates, 98- (Percent) 8 Unemploymen t (Avg. 98-) Source: Ball et al (), IMF World Economic Outlook and IMF staff calculations (for -). ¹ Simple average of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela.

15 Going forward: Commodities prices will soften and global interest rates will rise Commodity Prices (Index, =) Oil Metals Food U.S. Interest Rates (In percent) 7 3 U.S. -yr Yield U.S. -yr Yield 87 Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook; Consensus Forecast, U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO), and IMF staff estimates.

16 factor accumulation will be limited by demographics and little spare capacity Labor Contribution to Real GDP Growth (annual average, percent) Human Capital Strong growth in employment is unlikely looking forward. Source: Kim, Sosa, and Tsounta, May 3. Spring WHD Regional Economic Outlook. ¹ Simple averages of country groups. Excludes Paraguay and Nicaragua for 99-, due to data limitations.

17 and net exports constrained by strong exchange rates Real Effective Exchange Rate (Average = ) 7 7 Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Uruguay Mexico Sources: International Financial Statistics and IMF staff calculations. ¹ Shows 9th percentile and th percentile for the period from January 993 to February 3. Gray box covers range between th and 7th percentile of REER. Dots are latest observation (Feb-3).

18 Sustaining rapid growth will require more productivity Selected Latin America: Potential Growth Ranges (percent) Actual real GDP Potential growth range BRA CHL COL MEX PER URY Sources: Calculations based on work by Kim, Sosa, and Tsounta (Forthcoming, WHD Regional Economic Outlook, Spring 3). BOL ECU PRY VEN Ø Ø Ø Limits on capital accumulation Fading of easy financing conditions and stable commodity price outlook Natural constraints on labor Population ageing Labor participation rates already high Near record-low unemployment Boosting productivity will be critical Education quality Infrastructure/Investment climate

19 Some improvements last decade, but more is needed Contribution to Real GDP Growth (annual percent, simple average) TFP Latin The Emerging Advanced America Caribbean Asia Commodity Exporters Source: Kim, Sosa, and Tsounta, May 3. Spring WHD Regional Economic Outlook. ¹ Simple averages of country groups. Excludes Paraguay and Nicaragua for 99-, due to data limitations.

20 Need to strengthen fiscal buffers now Latin America: Public Debt and Primary Balances (in percent of GDP) FI Commodity Exporters Primary balance 7 9 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook. ¹ FI Commodity exporters is simple average for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Uruguay. Other commodity exporters is simple average for Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay and Venezuela Public debt (rhs) Mexico Other Commodity Exporters Why fiscal consolidation? Cyclical considerations Closed output gaps Widening current accounts Currency appreciation Protect against downside risks Less space than precrisis Medium-term considerations Ageing Other contingent liabilities

21 Watch out for private sector excesses in the context of strong inflows (in some countries) Latin America: Change in Current Account Balance, - (percentage points of GDP) 8 Chg CA private Commodity Other Commodity Mexico Exporters Exporte Source: IMF World Economic Outlook and Fund Staff calculations. ¹ FI Commodity exporters: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay. Other commodity exporters: Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay and Venezuela. 3 - FI Latin America: Net Financial Flows (in percent of GDP) Portfolio Flows -7 - Source: IMF World Economic Outlook and IMF staff calculations. Weighted average for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay. Average for time period.

22 International Monetary Fund Washington, DC. May, 3. Latin America: Key Takeaways Strong growth, moderating to potential Widening current accounts, rapid credit and asset price growth (vulnerabilities building) Going forward: ü Strengthen fiscal consolidation ü Watch out for private sector excesses ü Reforms to boost productivity and savings