NHBC NEW HOME STATISTICS REVIEW Q1 2016

Transcription

1 NHBC NEW HOME STATISTICS REVIEW Q1 216 NHBC statistics represent a unique source of detailed up-to-date information on new home construction and the house-building industry. The figures relate to new homes registered with NHBC for its ten-year warranty, which covers around 8 per cent of all new homes built in the UK. NHBC figures are available well ahead of Government figures. As such, we represent the only source of up-to-date information on new home registrations. -9% new homes registered in Q1 216 compared to Q % more new homes completed during financial year 215/16 compared to 214/15 36,566 new homes registered Q ,329 new homes registered during financial year 215/16 in line with 214/15 NEW BUILD REGISTRATIONS - QUARTER ON QUARTER COMPARISON Number of homes 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Q2-6 Q3-6 Q4-6 Q1-7 Q2-7 Q3-7 Q4-7 Q1-8 Q2-8 Q3-8 Q4-8 Q1-9 Q2-9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q1-1 Q2-1 Q3-1 Q4-1 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Source: NHBC (Appendix table 1). Note: Figures are derived from actual New-Build registrations for NHBC s ten-year warranty. HEADLINE RESULTS l 36,566 new homes registered in Q1 216, 9% down on Q1 215 l Financial year registrations in line with 214/15, up 8% since recession l 1% increase in new home completions in 215/16 RECENT HISTORY 212/13 (111,392) -.5% 213/14 (137,316) +23% 214/15 (152,262) +11% 215/16 (152,329) +.4% Source: NHBC (Appendix table 2) SLIGHT DROP UPTURN GROWTH CONSOLIDATION

2 Financial year figures NEW HOME REGISTRATIONS 3, 25, 159, Volume (Long-term average) 152,329 (215/16) 2, 15, 1, 5, 197/ / / / / / / / / /8 198/ / / / / / / / / /9 199/ / / / / / / / / / 2/1 21/2 22/3 23/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 Source: NHBC (Appendix table 3) NEW HOME REGISTRATIONS - BY SECTOR 16, 14, 12, Private 1, 8, 6, 4, Public 2, NEW HOME COMPLETIONS 25, Volume 2, 15, 1, 5, 1987/ / /9 199/ / / / / / / / / / 2/1 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 Source: NHBC (Appendix table 3) 21/2 22/3 2/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 Source: NHBC (Appendix table 8) PAGE 2 OF 1

3 Regional overview REGIONAL REGISTRATIONS Q1 215 vs Q1 216 David Little, Northern Ireland After a promising 215, this year has experienced a relatively quiet start, with Q1 down compared to last year. However, the financial year figures were very pleasing in terms of new home registrations with strong public sector numbers. Since early March we have seen significant signs of growth in the market including the announcement of a 55 home development in Bangor and a 1 home development in Newtownards. These and other announcements confirm the continued growth in the new home market, particularly in sought-after areas such as Belfast and North Down. 3,187 2,91-9% Scotland 1,18 1,131-4% North East Malcolm MacLeod, Scotland The start of the year has seen a slight decline in numbers compared to the same period last year, however this comes after a positive 215, which was the best year for housebuilding in Scotland for eight years. As the year progresses we expect to see volumes come through at a similar rate to last year, with continued activity in and around Edinburgh and with the Help to Buy scheme making a real impact. 2,223 1,889 3,198 3,732-15% Yorkshire & Humberside +17% North West & Merseyside 3,572 3,114 4,317 3, % Northern Ireland & Isle Of Man -13% East Midlands Eastern -17% 1,146 1,142 % Wales 5,62 4,751-15% 3,832 3,49 London -9% 6,67 6,117 West Midlands 4,422 4,57-8% Q % South West South East Q1 216 Peter Watton, Wales New home numbers in Wales for the first three months of 216 have been broadly in line with growth seen over the last two years, which is good progress from the low volumes seen during the economic downturn. Additionally we have seen Help to Buy Wales become fully established which in turn has helped boost the number of homes in the last financial year. Hotspot areas such as Cardiff, Newport and the M4 corridor continue to appeal to the larger developers. Steve Catt, England As with the rest of the UK, England has seen a quieter first quarter of the year, with numbers falling below the extremely strong registrations and starts that we saw in the first half of 215, with both the private and public sectors down overall. Out of the English regions, only the North-West has shown an increase in numbers compared to the same period a year ago. Despite this, the 215/16 financial year for England is almost identical to 214/15, and this is a good indicator of how the industry has maintained its performance over the last 12 months. Source: NHBC (Appendix table 4) PAGE 3 OF 1

4 London - new homes market NEW HOMES REGISTERED IN LONDON - BY QUARTER 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 7,89 5,919 2,859 4,343 3,288 4,764 3,639 7,391 7,948 Volume 5,33 5,693 7,883 7,127 5,644 7,846 5,62 6,972 7,286 6,113 4,751 2, 1, 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 212 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 213 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 214 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 215 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 216 Q1 Source: NHBC NEW HOMES REGISTERED IN LONDON BY 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, NEW HOMES COMPLETED IN LONDON BY 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1987/ / /9 199/ / / / / / / / / / 2/1 21/2 22/3 2/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/ / / / /9 199/ / / / / / / / / / 2/1 21/2 22/3 2/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 Source: NHBC Source: NHBC PAGE 4 OF 1

5 Analysis of new home registrations NEW BUILD REGISTRATIONS PRIVATE/PUBLIC & AFFORDABLE SECTOR 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, Private sector -7% (28,398) Public & affordable sector -15% (8,168) 5, 26 Q2 26 Q3 26 Q4 27 Q1 27 Q2 27 Q3 27 Q4 28 Q1 28 Q2 28 Q3 28 Q4 29 Q1 29 Q2 29 Q3 29 Q4 21 Q1 21 Q2 21 Q3 21 Q4 211 Q1 211 Q2 211 Q3 211 Q4 212 Q1 212 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 213 Q1 213 Q2 213 Q3 213 Q4 214 Q1 214 Q2 214 Q3 214 Q4 215 Q1 215 Q2 215 Q3 215 Q4 216 Q1 Source: NHBC (Appendix table 1) 51% of all new home registrations in 215/16 were for semi-detached or detached houses Did you know? 2,396 Since depth of recession (28/9) NHBC has registered 8% more new homes bungalows were registered to be built in 215/16 UK HOUSE TYPES 12, 1, 8, Detached & Semi-Detached 51% 6, 4, Flats/Maisonettes 31% 2, Terraced 16% 1987/ / /9 199/ / / / / / / / / / 2/1 21/2 22/3 2/4 24/5 25/6 26/7 27/8 28/9 29/1 21/11 211/12 212/13 213/14 214/15 215/16 Bungalows 2% Source: NHBC (Appendix table 5) PAGE 5 OF 1

6 Appendices Table 1: New build registrations private and public sector QUARTER ENDING PRIVATE SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR Q2-6 42,22 6,951 49,153 Q3-6 35,72 6,49 41,481 Q4-6 3,51 5,583 35,634 Q1-7 43,528 1,22 53,55 Q2-7 41,699 1,778 52,477 Q3-7 39,984 9,657 49,641 Q4-7 35,357 8,16 43,517 Q1-8 28,458 8,89 37,267 Q2-8 2,19 9,138 29,247 Q3-8 13,49 1,8 23,129 Q4-8 8,719 7,373 16,92 Q1-9 8,7 7,527 16,227 Q2-9 13,56 8,453 21,959 Q3-9 15,97 8,41 24,371 Q4-9 18,512 7,913 26,425 Q1-1 18,459 9,733 28,192 Q2-1 2,78 1,861 3,939 Q3-1 2,69 9,137 29,746 Q4-1 18,73 8,813 27,516 Q ,262 11,63 3,325 QUARTER ENDING PRIVATE SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR Q ,463 12,416 34,879 Q ,554 8,397 29,951 Q ,947 5,371 21,318 Q1-12 2,11 5,77 25,88 Q ,525 6,554 26,79 Q3-12 2,197 8,29 28,46 Q ,63 6,77 24,77 Q ,777 8,36 32,137 Q ,437 1,77 36,144 Q ,93 9,3 33,96 Q ,968 9,93 33,61 Q ,493 9,712 34,25 Q ,329 9,625 36,954 Q ,697 8,8 36,777 Q ,922 8,465 38,387 Q1-15 3,56 9,584 4,144 Q2-15 3,134 1,86 4,94 Q ,54 7,733 36,273 Q ,997 9,553 38,55 Q ,398 8,168 36,566 NOTES 1. The above figures relate to New-Build registrations for NHBC s ten-year warranty in the UK, including the Isle of Man. 2. Nationally NHBC provides warranties on approximately 8% of new homes built in the UK (including the Isle of Man). 3. Changes can occur between figures published at different times owing to changes in policies and cancellations. PAGE 6 OF 1

7 Appendices (Continued) Table 2: New home registrations - financial year 197/71 239, /83 157, /95 173,21 26/7 179, /72 236,3 1983/84 173, /96 148,914 27/8 182, /73 11, /85 169, /97 157,419 28/9 84, /74 123, /86 172, /98 169,65 29/1 1, /75 218, /87 198, /99 16,41 21/11 118, /76 218, /88 29, / 158, /12 111, /77 149, /89 218,735 2/1 153, /13 111, /78 149, /9 15,819 21/2 158, /14 137, /79 157, /91 129,97 22/3 177, /15 152, /8 13, /92 147,312 23/4 179, /16 152, /81 97, /93 13,259 24/5 181, /82 115, /94 171,427 25/6 185,393 Table 3: New home registrations - financial year - by sector PRIVATE PUBLIC PRIVATE PUBLIC 26/7 15,853 28, ,818 27/8 145,498 37,44 182,92 28/9 5,577 34,118 84,695 29/1 66,447 34,5 1,947 21/11 78,652 39, , /12 8,65 31, , /13 81,562 29,83 111, /14 98,81 38, , /15 116,58 35, , /16 116,69 36,26 152,329 NOTES 1. NHBC statistics are derived almost exclusively from its registered builders, who construct around 8% of the new homes built in the UK. As such, they represent a unique source of detailed, up-to-date information on new home construction and the house-building industry. 2. Changes can occur between figures published at different times owing to changes in policies and cancellations. 3. The above figures relate to New-Build registrations for NHBC s ten-year warranty in the UK, including the Isle of Man. 4. NHBC registration figures are obtained as follows: A builder is required to register a house with NHBC at least 21 days before building starts. PAGE 7 OF 1

8 Appendices (Continued) Table 4: Regional registration figures all sectors Q1 29 Q1 21 Q1 211 Q1 212 Q1 213 Q1 214 Q1 215 Q1 216 North East 617 1, ,56 1,272 1,313 1,18 1,131 North West 1,51 1,816 1,768 2,32 2,413 3,92 3,198 3,732 Yorkshire & Humberside 1,25 1,916 1,218 1,464 1,576 1,669 2,223 1,889 West Midlands 927 2,368 1,627 1,683 2,421 2,996 3,832 3,49 East Midlands 1,26 2,339 1,788 1,929 2,563 2,742 3,572 3,114 Eastern 2,536 3,476 3,478 2,474 3,199 2,533 4,317 3,582 South West 1,753 3,118 3,27 2,959 3,176 3,246 4,422 4,57 London 1,294 3,142 8,612 4,343 7,391 7,883 5,62 4,751 South East 2,444 4,777 4,83 3,792 4,18 4,511 6,67 6,117 England 13,366 24,31 27,13 21,732 28,29 29,985 35,34 31,863 Scotland 1,446 1,963 1,979 2,716 2,647 2,771 3,187 2,91 Wales 743 1, , ,146 1,142 Northern Ireland (incl. Isle of Man) UNITED KINGDOM (INCL. ISLE OF MAN) 16,227 28,192 3,325 25,88 32,137 34,25 4,144 36,566 NOTES 1. The figures show New build and Solo homes registered for NHBC s ten-year warranty. 2. Nationally NHBC provides warranties on approximately 8% of new homes built in the UK (including the Isle of Man). 3. The figures are sourced from information held on NHBC s Fusion system as at 31st March Changes can occur between figures published at different times owing to changes in policies and cancellations. PAGE 8 OF 1

9 Appendices (Continued) Table 5: UK House types in total registrations BUNGALOWS FLATS/ MAISONETTES DETACHED HOUSES & SEMI-DETACHED HOUSES TERRACED HOUSES 1987/88 29,985 45,246 11,534 32, /89 29,639 53,713 12,268 33, /9 19,982 35,43 69,893 25, /91 14,117 28,436 61,43 25, /92 14,134 29,26 73,587 3, /93 11,33 24,352 64,333 3, /94 13,515 28,92 92,825 36, /95 12,34 29,541 14,595 26, /96 1,567 24,25 9,729 23, /97 11,167 22,944 98,38 25, /98 11,563 26,527 16,416 25, /99 1,94 26,617 99,667 24, / 9,791 27,883 97,893 22,749 2/1 7,845 34,921 86,787 24,168 21/2 7,142 42,867 82,924 25,976 22/3 6,589 55,39 84,185 31,191 2/4 6,189 64,686 76,98 32,367 24/5 4,959 75,373 69,638 31,78 25/6 4,417 82,724 64,979 33,17 26/7 4,45 8,99 59,989 34,638 27/8 3,969 83,966 57,384 37,757 28/9 2,474 4,824 24,428 17,2 29/1 2,69 37,593 36,187 24,561 21/11 2,338 46,957 42,261 26, /12 1,928 4,21 45,155 24, /13 1,862 37,427 47,886 24, /14 2,489 47,124 6,7 27,7 214/15 2,144 47,454 74,629 28,35 215/16 2,396 47,84 77,326 24,767 NOTES 1. NHBC statistics are derived almost exclusively from its registered builders, who construct around 8% of the new homes built in the UK. As such, they represent a unique source of detailed, up-to-date information on new home construction and the house-building industry. 2. Changes can occur between figures published at different times owing to changes in policies and cancellations. 3. The above figures relate to New-Build registrations and completions for NHBC s ten-year warranty in the UK, including the Isle of Man. 4. NHBC registration figures are obtained as follows: A builder is required to register a house with NHBC at least 21 days before building starts. PAGE 9 OF 1

10 Appendices (Continued) Table 6: New homes completed in the UK - by financial year 1987/88 18, /96 165,79 2/4 169,7 211/12 114, /89 23, /97 159,82 24/5 17, /13 15, /9 181, /98 16,445 25/6 177, /14 113,91 199/91 152, /99 154,67 26/7 187, /15 125, /92 152, / 159,61 27/8 181, /16 137, /93 144,135 2/1 149,68 28/9 135, /94 158,411 21/2 149,43 29/1 111, /95 172,479 22/3 165,924 21/11 16,119 NOTES 1. NHBC statistics are derived almost exclusively from its registered builders, who construct around 8% of the new homes built in the UK. As such, they represent a unique source of detailed, up-to-date information on new home construction and the house-building industry. 2. Changes can occur between figures published at different times owing to changes in policies and cancellations. 3. The above figures relate to New-Build registrations and completions for NHBC s ten-year warranty in the UK, including the Isle of Man. 4. NHBC registration figures are obtained as follows: A builder is required to register a house with NHBC at least 21 days before building starts. PAGE 1 OF 1