Tourism Business Monitor. Accommodation Report. Wave 5 Post-October half term

Transcription

1 Tourism Business Monitor Accommodation Report Wave 5 Post-October half term

2 Background, objectives and research method Tourism Business Monitor designed to measure, monitor and understand tourism business performance and confidence and the factors which influence them. Amalgamation of two previous surveys discontinued at end of 2011: England Attractions Monitor Accommodation Business Confidence Monitor Telephone survey conducted five times per year immediately following key tourism periods among: c. 500 accommodation establishments (c. 250 serviced / c. 250 non-serviced), including mix by region, establishment size and hotels / guest houses / B&B / self-catering / caravan and campsites. c. 300 visitor attractions including mix by region, attraction type, size (measured by annual visitor admissions) and free / paid admission. Questions on hot topics included on a periodic basis. Fieldwork dates: Nov : 5-12 Nov, reviewing mid-september until the end of the October Sept : Sept, reviewing the school summer holidays July : July, reviewing the period after the Jubilee bank holiday weekend until mid July June : June, reviewing May/ early June period, including Jubilee Bank Holiday weekend Easter : April, reviewing January to April period 2

3 Accommodation sample targets (total 500) % Serviced Accommodation Non-serviced Accommodation 100 Hotels 150 Guest Houses / B&Bs 150 Selfcatering 100 Caravan / Campsites North (North East, North West, Yorkshire) Midlands (East Midlands, East, Heart of England) South (South East, South West) London hotels with over 100 bed spaces 60 guest houses / B&Bs with over 10 bed spaces self-catering with over 10 bed spaces 40 caravan / campsites with over 100 bed spaces This is the target sample for each wave, reflecting the profile of accommodation in England. There are minor variations wave on wave, which are corrected by weighting the profile if needed. 3

4 Key Findings In September we saw early signs that the accommodation industry may be turning a corner. Two months on business performance is continuing to improve, with visitor numbers now only marginally down on the same period last year (net change of -3%). Admissions have improved across all audiences and business types, especially amongst domestic visitors, with hotels showing most improvement. Most accommodation businesses continue to be reliant on repeat visits o fill bed spaces, although hotels are now seeing a resurgence of domestic and overseas visitors. Despite this, there is limited change in satisfaction levels has post Olympics business failed to live up to expectations? Confidence has fallen back since September, from 82% to 73% very or fairly confident. This is dragged down by non-serviced accommodation, which has limited advance bookings until the end of the year. Optimism of large businesses remains fairly consistent, but smaller venues (less than 100 bed spaces) are less confident following a fall in bookings. Confidence (and advance booking levels) are highest amongst large town/city businesses, who are perhaps more likely to benefit from Christmas festivities. We enter 2013 with some trepidation, with only 51% of accommodation businesses feeling confident about their outlook. However, the early signs of recovery are continuing to sprout, so we can feel cautiously positive for the year ahead. 4

5 Business Dashboard G:Office/Templates/2010 Templates/May

6 Business Performance Dashboard: Accommodation VISITOR NUMBERS Visitor numbers (%) Visitor numbers (%) Versus same period previous year Hotels Down Guest house/ B&B Same Up Self-catering Nov YTD Caravan/ camping SATISFACTION Satisfaction (%) Satisfied with business performance Satisfaction with Performance (%) Hotels Not at all Not very Guest house/ B&B Quite Very Self-catering Nov YTD Caravan/ camping Q3/4, Q7/8, Q6, Q10 PERIOD ASKED ABOUT FOR PAST BUSINESS PERFORMANCE Nov : From mid-september until the end of October 6

7 Business Confidence Dashboard: Accommodation Very confident Fairly confident W May 2011 July 2011 Sept 2011 Nov 2011 Jan Easter June July Sept Nov Very confident Fairly confident Nov Hotels Nov B&B Nov Nov Caravan/ Self catering Camping NOV Q13 PERIOD ASKED ABOUT FOR FUTURE BUSINESS CONFIDENCE Nov : Period until end of the year 7

8 Visitor profile G:Office/Templates/2010 Templates/May

9 Changing Visitor Profile (year-to-date vs. previous year): Accommodation Up Same Down NET: Up - Down Up 28 Down Domestic visitors Nov May Jul Sep Nov 2011 Jan 22 Easter Jun 14 Jul 18 Sept 24 Nov Up Down Overseas visitors Nov May 2011 Jul 2011 Sep Nov Jan Easter Jun Jul Sept Nov Up Down Nov Repeat visitors May 2011 Jul 2011 Sep 2011 Nov 2011 Jan Easter Jun Jul Sept Nov Q12 9

10 Changing Visitor Profile (year-to-date vs. previous year): Accommodation type Most accommodation businesses continue to be reliant on repeat visits to fill bed spaces, although hotels are now seeing a resurgence of domestic and overseas visitors. Up Same Down Domestic visitors (YTD) Hotels NET: Up - Down +6 Guest Houses / B&Bs Domestic visitors Self-Catering Caravan / Camping Overseas visitors (YTD) Hotels Guest Houses / B&Bs Overseas visitors Self-Catering Caravan / Camping Repeat visitors (YTD) Hotels Guest Houses / B&Bs Repeat visitors Self-Catering Caravan / Camping Q12 10

11 Past performance G:Office/Templates/2010 Templates/May

12 Visitor numbers: Year-on-year changes Post October half term, accommodation venues are reporting some improvement in performance. However half of accommodation venues are still down on year-to-date visitor numbers compared with the same period in % Nov 7 6 Up Slightly up Exactly same YTD Slightly down Down Up Down Easter June July Sept -41 Nov -49 YTD PERIOD ASKED ABOUT FOR PAST BUSINESS PERFORMANCE Nov : Mid-September until the end of October/ Sept : School summer holidays/ July Jubilee bank holiday weekend until mid July/ June : May and early June until after Jubilee Bank Holiday Q3/4, Q7/8 12

13 Visitor Numbers: Year-on-year changes (%) Although overall the accommodation market is still down on last year s visitor numbers by -3%, this is an improvement compared with reported figures post summer holidays, where businesses were down -6% for the summer holiday period and -7% for year-to-date. YTD Nov % Increase Over 50% 31-50% 21-30% 11-20% 5-10% Less than 5% Decrease Less than 5% 5-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-50% Over 50% NET % change (increase decrease) - 3% - 3% Q5, Q9 PERIOD ASKED ABOUT FOR PAST BUSINESS PERFORMANCE Nov From mid-september until the end of October 13

14 Case Study: Bramble Corner 11-20% increase in visitors during YTD compared with the same period in 2011 Word of mouth is important for us we get a lot of repeat business. Because our guesthouse is right in the village the locals know about us, so if there are any parties or weddings that happen in the area people would, and have, recommended their loved ones to stay here. We ve also managed to extend that word of mouth to the online environment and have seen an increase in bookings over the past few months associated with some really good reviews on sites such as Trip Advisor. A friendly guesthouse that understands the importance of word-of-mouth recommendation Village guesthouse accommodation East of England 4 star Sleeps up to 10 We've recently re-done our website and we advertise with laterooms.com and eviivo, which have also helped to bring in more bookings. We like to do little extra things for our guests like recommending places in the local area to visit, giving people tea and cake when they arrive and even doing people s laundry if they need it! I like to think we re friendly and approachable as hosts, and I think as long as we maintain standards we ll keep being recommended and getting good ratings online and therefore good levels of new as well as repeat visitors. 14

15 Positive verbatim comments on business performance: Accommodation Weather and hiring a lot of staff has improved on our performance We provide damn good service and work hard to keep our customers coming back We have just subscribed to booking.com and they provide us with bookings, which has helped A more pro-active sales approach. That's probably it - just raising awareness of our business. I just think because we have improved the product, the website and the marketing we are now a more established business. Q11 15

16 Negative verbatim comments on business performance: Accommodation The doom and gloom of the recession and Christmas coming up After the Olympics there are more people visiting London rather than the Lake District Because of the recession, Nanny and Granddad aren't coming on holiday as they are babysitting their grandkids whilst Mummy and Daddy go to work The Olympics and the weather was a big factor. The economy was a huge factor because people did not have the disposable income. The weather forecast was unpredictable also People that normally leave their caravans here in the past, they would have come every weekend, but now they come once every month because they cant afford the 50 petrol to come here Q11 16

17 Visitor numbers: Year-on-year changes by accommodation type Down Slightly down Hotels continue as the most resilient accommodation sector, whilst caravan/camping sites are still suffering from the effects of the temperamental weather this year. Same Slightly up Up % Hotels % B&B % % Self catering Caravan/ Camping YTD Nov YTD Nov YTD Nov YTD Nov Q3/4, Q7/8 17

18 Visitor numbers: Degree of year-on-year changes by accommodation type There are improvements across the board in terms of NET % change in visitor numbers, with hotels now on par with visitor levels for the equivalent period last year Hotels YTD Nov B&B YTD Nov Increase Over 50% 31-50% 21-30% 11-20% 5-10% Less than 5% % 0% -3% -4% Decrease Less than 5% 5-10% 11-20% 21-30% 31-50% Over 50% NET % change Self catering YTD Nov Caravan/ Camping YTD Nov % -3% -7% -5% Q5, Q9 18

19 Changing business performance: By accommodation type & bed spaces Business is up pretty much across the board, but not so for satisfaction. Has post Olympics business failed to live up to expectations? ACCOMMODATION TYPE Easter % Visitors up on last year June July Sept Nov Hotel Guest / B&B Self catering Caravan / camping % Very satisfied Easter June July Sept Nov BED SPACES % Visitors up on last year Up to 10 bedspaces bedspaces Over 100 bedspaces % Very satisfied Easter June July Sept Nov Easter June July Sept Nov Q3/4, Q6 19

20 Changing business performance: By accommodation location Satisfaction levels have dipped significantly for small town and seaside venues, despite the overall improvement in performance. % Visitors up on last year % Very satisfied Seaside Large town or city Small town Countryside / village Easter June July Sept Nov Easter June July Sept Nov Q3/4, Q6 20

21 Future performance G:Office/Templates/2010 Templates/May

22 Advance booking levels: Accommodation Advance booking levels have dipped, reflecting the season and no doubt contributing to the lower confidence levels of accommodation businesses. % Very poor Poor Just OK Good 34 Very good Survey conducted: Period asked about: Easter June July Sep-12 Nov Easter June July Sept Nov Until after Jubilee bank hol Until start of summer hols Until end of summer hols Until end of October Until end of the year Q14 22

23 Confidence for forthcoming period: By accommodation type Advance bookings are down across the board, although B&Bs remain reasonably confident. Caravan/ campsites seem to have given up hope for following a continued decline in advance bookings. CONFIDENCE: For period up until the end of the year 53 % Very confident Hotel Guest house / B&B Self catering Caravan / camping Easter June July Sept Nov ADVANCE BOOKINGS % Very good / good Hotel Guest house / B&B Self catering Caravan / camping Easter June July Sept Nov Q13 23

24 Confidence & bookings for forthcoming period: By accommodation size We see a convergence in confidence across different sized accommodation venues. Optimism of large businesses remains fairly consistent, but smaller venues (less than 100 bed spaces) are less confident following a fall in bookings. CONFIDENCE: For period up until the end of the year 52 % Very confident Up to 10 bedspaces bedspaces Over 100 bedspaces Easter June July Sept Nov ADVANCE BOOKINGS % Very/ fairly good Up to 10 bedspaces bedspaces Over 100 bedspaces Easter June July Sept Nov Q13 24

25 Confidence for forthcoming period: By location Confidence and advance booking levels are highest amongst large town/city businesses, who are perhaps more likely to benefit from Christmas festivities. CONFIDENCE: For period up until the end of the year % Very confident Seaside Large town or city Small town Countryside / village Easter June July Sept Nov ADVANCE BOOKINGS % Very/ fairly good Seaside Large town or city Small town Countryside / village Easter June July Sept Nov Q13 25

26 Positive verbatim comments on business confidence: Accommodation I think the West is getting a lot of rain, so people are phoning us up because they can t get on campsites because it s so muddy, so we re picking up that business. I feel quite confident. Business is good and the Christmas markets will make it pick up even more because people will be staying here Hopefully it should be good because we are leading up to Christmas and the Christmas period should bring Christmas parties and bookings and also Christmas meals We are feeling very confident about our business as we have just opened a new building We have full capacity with the student lets. The amount of students coming into the city is a huge factor for us. We also have government funding to build an extension of our hotel Q19

27 Negative verbatim comments on business confidence: Accommodation The Premier Inns/Travel Inns are taking over the trade I don't think we've got anyone else booked in at all, just probably because noone's got any money Low confidence in the economy may have negative affects - businesses are collapsing I think its going to be much worse than last year due to the economic downfall making things worse We have got a lot of competition now. The weather is a huge factor and people are going abroad more often because it is cheaper abroad. I used to have regular guests coming 3 times a year and now this year it is only once because of the money Q19 27

28 Expectations for business performance in 2013: Factors expected to affect performance next year There appears to be a lot of uncertainty about what 2013 will bring. Overall it seems the expectation is for more of the same, but with a slight improvement driven by the domestic market business confidence compared to Much better Slightly better The same Slightly worse Much worse 51% 7% Is that because you are expecting? Is that because you are expecting? More domestic visitors 56 Fewer domestic visitors 67 More overseas visitors 22 A worse profit margin 42 A better profit margin 19 Fewer overseas visitors Other 31 Other 24 Q15, Q16a, Q16b 28

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30 Performance and confidence snapshot: November Visitor Numbers (November) Visitor Numbers (Year-to-date) Confidence (End of the year) Type (%) Bed-spaces (%) Grading (%) Location (%) Up Same Down Up Same Down Very Very / fairly TOTAL (%) Hotel Guest / B&B Self catering Caravan / camping Up to Over star star star Budget / other Seaside Large town / city Small town Rural