Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station. Full Business Case

Transcription

1 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station Full Business Case October 2017

2 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

3 Contents Executive Summary 1 1 Introduction Background Purpose of Document Other Documentation Document Structure 8 2 Scheme History & Scheme Description Introduction Scheme History Scheme Description 12 3 The Strategic Case Introduction Existing Arrangements Behavioural Barriers Scheme Objectives Proposals / Option Assessment Report Strategic Fit Political Support Stakeholders Internal or External Business Drivers Synergy Conclusion 55 4 The Economic Case Introduction Methodology Assumptions Transport Economic Efficiency and Public Accounts Safety Benefits Environmental and Social Impacts Distributional Impacts Wider Impacts Appraisal Summary Table Value for Money Statement Conclusion 85 5 The Financial Case Introduction Methodology Assumptions Base Costs 90 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

4 5.5 Quantified Risk Assessment Scheme Costs Adjusted for Risk Preferred Funding Arrangements Alternative Funding Arrangements Conclusion 94 6 The Commercial Case Introduction Procurement Method Programme Implications and Risk Conclusion The Management Case Introduction Governance Assurance Delivery Programme Risk Management Communication and Stakeholder Management Monitoring and Evaluation Conclusion Summary and Conclusions Summary and Conclusions 129 Figures Figure 1.1 Walking Distance between Tram and Rail at Blackpool North Station 7 Figure 2.1 Historical Tram Patronage up to end of July Figure 2.2 Location of the Scheme 13 Figure 3.1: Disconnect between Tram System and Rail at Blackpool North Station 15 Figure 3.2: Blackpool and the Fylde Coast 16 Figure 3.3: Buses close to Blackpool North Station 18 Figure 3.4: Origins of People Boarding at the Station who Walked or came by Tram 22 Figure 3.5: Destinations of People on Foot or By Tram Alighting at Station 23 Figure 3.6: Inbound Travel Purposes for People Alighting at Blackpool North Station 25 Figure 3.7: Major Employers in Blackpool 26 Figure 3.8: Outbound Travel Purposes from Blackpool North Station 28 Figure 3.9: Destination Stations for Commuter and Business Rail Travellers from Blackpool North Station 29 Figure 3.10: Spatial Plan of Blackpool 32 Figure 3.11 Preferred Option for Tram Extension to Blackpool North Rail Station 38 Figure 4.1 Estimated yield by fare stage (distance) and mode 58 Figure 4.2: Assessed Impacts 63 Figure 4.3: Blackpool North Extension Operating Cost Increment 67 Figure 4.4: Blackpool North Extension Lower Cost Alternative Operating Cost Increment 68 Figure 4.5: Infrastructure Renewal Spend Profile 68 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

5 Figure 4.6: Benefits by time period 69 Figure 5.1: QRA Graphical Risk Output (nominal prices) 92 Figure 7.1: Project Team Organogram 107 Figure 7.2: Logic Map 125 Tables Table 2.1: Average Operating Costs for Blackpool North Extension 14 Table 2.2: Proposed Project Timescales 14 Table 3.1: Rail Routes and Frequencies from Blackpool North 17 Table 3.2: Season Service Split 18 Table 3.3: Top Five Employment Sectors in Blackpool 20 Table 3.4: Place of residence of workers working within Blackpool 24 Table 3.5: Mode of Travel to Blackpool for Employment 25 Table 3.6: Location of work of workers resident in Blackpool 27 Table 3.7: Mode of Travel from Blackpool for Employment 27 Table 3.8: Facilities Available in Urban Centres in the North West of England 28 Table 3.9 Alignment of Objectives to Key Policies 35 Table 3.10: Comparison of Options to Objectives 41 Table 3.11: Alignment of Scheme to Local, Regional and National Policies 49 Table 4.1: Costs 60 Table 4.2:Journey purpose splits for non-concessionary pass holders 64 Table 4.3: Discount Rates 65 Table 4.4: MEC Growth Parameters 65 Table 4.5: Wider Impacts effects on types of movements 81 Table 4.6: Central Case and LCA 83 Table 4.7: Sensitivity Tests 83 Table 4.8: DfT Consultation VoTs 84 Table 5.1: Capital Cost Items 87 Table 5.2: Maintenance Cost Items 88 Table 5.3: Base Costs 91 Table 5.4: Quantified Risk Assessment 91 Table 5.5: CA QRA Confidence Intervals (Q1, 2012 prices) 92 Table 5.6: Scheme Costs including Risk 93 Table 6.1: Scheme Development Timescales 103 Table 7.1: Blackpool Tram Project Board 107 Table 7.2: Identified Stakeholder Groups 119 Table 7.3: Consultation to Date 120 Appendices Appendix A Appendix B Appendix C Appendix D Appendix E Appendix F Appendix G Appendix H Appendix I Appendix J Appendix K Appendix L Scheme Drawings QRA Report Transport Economic Efficiency Distributional Impacts Environmental Appraisal Appraisal Summary Table Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (AMCB) Scheme Cost Estimates Letters of Support Scheme Delivery Programme TUBA Input Files Blackpool Council S.151 Officer Letter Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

6 Document Purpose This Full Business Case: Is used continually to align the progress of the project towards achieving the LEP s objectives; Confirms the strategic fit and the case for change; Sets out a detailed assessment of the options to find the preferred solution; Refines the investment / intervention proposal; Provides details of the project's overall balance of benefits and costs against objectives; and Provides details of the proposed delivery mechanism. Proportionate Approach - as per Department for Transport (DfT) guidance, the amount of time invested in developing a business case should be proportional to the scale of the scheme. For example, a 100m scheme would require significantly more detail than a 10m scheme. Transport for Lancashire s Business Case Development Process Chart provides further details. However, please seek confirmation from the LEP if you are uncertain as to the level of detail required for your scheme s Business Case. Contact Details: Kathryn Molloy Head of LEP Coordination & Development Tel: kathryn.molloy@lancashire.gov.uk Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

7 Executive Summary Overview This document is the Full Business Case (FBC) for the Blackpool North Station Tramway Extension, a scheme to connect Blackpool North Station to the existing tramway at North Pier (see figure below). The scheme is promoted by Blackpool Council and Blackpool Transport Services (BTS). Blackpool North Extension scheme in the context of the wider area The FBC has been developed to support the application for Full Approval for funding from the Lancashire LEP, following the LEP s FBC template. Conditional Approval was granted by the LEP in April This FBC has been developed in line with the structure set out in the Department for Transport s (DfT) Transport Business Case guidance to establish whether the specified scheme is: Supported by a robust case for change that fits with wider policy objectives (the Strategic Case); Demonstrated to be Value for Money (the Economic Case); Financially affordable (the Financial Case accounting analysis) Commercially viable (the Commercial Case procurement issues); and Achievable (the Management Case deliverability assessment). Six objectives were developed from a review of local policy. It is these objectives against which a qualitative and quantitative assessment of various options for intervention has been made: 1. Maximise growth of the Fylde Coast economy by enhancing accessibility and connectivity to key destinations within and outwith the sub-region. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

8 2. Support and facilitate the sustainable growth of the Fylde Coast sub-region by complementing and, where possible, enhancing current development and regeneration proposals. 3. Reduce transport s emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases by contributing to wider carbon reduction and mode shift policies for the authorities making up the Fylde Coast sub-region. 4. Promote quality of life through a safe and healthy built and natural environment. 5. Contribute to enhanced quality of life by improving access for all to jobs and services. 6. Ensure affordability, deliverability and Value for Money of the proposed scheme taking account of current Government guidance The Preferred Option: Will deliver passenger and economy benefits by improving accessibility and connectivity both within Blackpool, and to the wider sub-region for commuters and for visitors accessing the resort. Will facilitate urban realm enhancements in the town centre as well as improving access for employers in Blackpool to a larger labour pool. Improves the connectivity between the economically important seafront and the redeveloping town centre Will make a modest contribution to wider carbon reduction and mode shift because opportunities to use public transport are improved for all Will make a modest contribution to a safe and healthy built environment because opportunities to use public transport and the public realm are improved for all Will contribute to enhanced quality of life by improving access to jobs and services within Blackpool and the wider sub-region. Represents high value for money to the public sector, is affordable within the context of the Blackpool Council and Lancashire LEP budgets for transport, and is a deliverable scheme. Other comparator options tested both in the development of this FBC and previously in the OBC and the Fylde Coast Transport Study in 2012, do not contribute to the objectives as well as the Preferred Option. The Lower Cost Alternative comparator tested in this FBC offers lower value for money in the context of the scheme objectives. Funding Requirements The total investment cost for the Preferred Option for Blackpool North Extension is 23.42m of which 22.84m is subject to funding in accordance with the Lancashire Enterprise Partnership eligibility criteria as set out in the Accountability Framework for Transport. At Programme Entry, Lancashire Enterprise Partnership allocated 16,400,000 of Growth Deal funding for the scheme, representing 72% of eligible scheme costs. Blackpool Council has committed to funding the balance of costs beyond the Lancashire Executive Partnership funding. Its Section 151 Officer has confirmed that this balance is affordable. This FBC assesses the core scheme costs, which exclude the SCADA (System Control and Data Acquisition) works included as part of the funding bid, but required whether or not the extension proposal proceeds, and now are complete. Therefore Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

9 neither costs nor benefits of the SCADA package are included within the Economic Case of this FBC assessment, consistent with DfT appraisal practice. The remaining sections of this Executive Summary highlight further information setting out the: Context Options Assessed The Business Case Conclusions Context The Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway underwent a major programme of improvements in the four years to 2012 including improvements to tram infrastructure, highway infrastructure and new tram vehicles. Since re-opening, the tramway patronage has increased in line with the forecasts for the business case produced for the upgrade works and in 2016/17 the tramway had its most successful year yet since the re-opening, in terms of patronage and revenue with over 5.1m passengers using the tram. Although the tramway upgrade has been successful, there remains a lack of integration between the tram system which moves people around economically important destinations in Blackpool and the rail system which allows rail access to tourism, jobs and services in Blackpool from the rest of the UK, and access to jobs and services in the rest of the UK (particularly Preston and Lancashire) from Blackpool. Interchange between rail and tram requires a transfer on foot of around 600 metres at the closest interchange points. This makes interchange journeys unattractive, especially considering that a walking trip is already likely to have been made to access the initial public transport mode and a further walk to the final destination. There are three types of movements of people which are of particular importance to the economy of Blackpool and the wider region: Inward movement of tourists to Blackpool from regional and national origins The two-way movement of local residents between the North West and Blackpool for work, leisure and services The internal movement of people between jobs, services and residential areas within Blackpool Making these types of movement by public transport would be made significantly easier by improving the integration by tram and rail in Blackpool. This FBC quantifies the benefits of this both in terms of conventional time-saving benefits and also wider economic benefits. Options Assessed Consideration has been given to other ways of achieving integration between the tram and rail services in the Fylde Coast, including a comprehensive qualitative and quantitative assessment of options to link the tramway and both the North and South Fylde rail lines in different configurations (including tram extensions and tram-train). The Fylde Coast Transport Study in 2012 concluded that an extension to Blackpool North station was the best performing option against the objectives and in a preliminary quantitative economic assessment. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

10 Consideration has also been given to other ways of achieving integration between the tram and rail services at Blackpool North Station. This included bus services, pedestrian facilities and urban realm improvements to enhance the walking experience around the station and to tram services. It also included the tramway extension option from the previous business case, which reduced the frequency of through trams (on the existing line) whilst diverting some trams to Blackpool North station. This option although net beneficial was noted to have some risks around the disbenefit caused to existing through passengers and has hence been refined into the current Preferred Option, which removes this disbenefit. The previous option was assessed in the OBC as the Lower Cost Alternative comparator. In this FBC, a further refinement has been made to the Lower Cost Alternative comparator, taking account of the advance order that has been made for the additional trams. In this context, the previous comparator was no longer rational, and instead, an option has been developed to deliver additional tram frequency on the existing route with the new vehicles but no additional infrastructure to Blackpool North station. Although this option makes only limited contribution to meeting the scheme objectives, it is considered the most credible lower cost alternative at this point in time. The Business Case A summary of the performance of the Preferred Option against each of the five cases of the Business Case follows. The Strategic Case for the scheme is strong: The Need for Intervention is clear: three key types of movement which are important to the economy of Blackpool and the wider Lancashire region are currently constrained by the lack of integration between the rail and tram systems. o Inward movement of tourists to Blackpool from regional and national origins o The two-way movement of local residents between the North West o and Blackpool for work and leisure and services The internal movement of people between jobs and services and residential areas within Blackpool Improving the integration by extending the tramway to Blackpool North Station will enable and contribute to an increase in economic growth in the area. The Preferred Option was identified through a comprehensive option generation and selection process, assessed qualitatively against the scheme objectives and quantitatively against the potential economic case. The Preferred Option has been refined to respond to changes in the context of the area (including the CBD development and patronage growth on the tramway) and also to remove a disbenefit to some existing passengers that was introduced by the previously developed option. The Preferred Option is aligned with the relevant local, regional and national policy. A Lower Cost Alternative option has been developed as an appropriate comparator case. This utilises the new trams which have been purchased in advance but provides a limited improvement in accessibility on the seafront only and no improvement in connectivity to Blackpool North station or the town centre. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

11 Stakeholder support for the scheme is strong; from the public, to businesses, politicians and the relevant transport operators (Network Rail, Virgin Trains First Group and Northern Rail, and BTS). The scheme has strong synergies with other developments occurring in the area. The Economic Case for the scheme is strong, with the analysis presented showing that it represents High Value for Money. The analysis undertaken at this stage does not present any significant downside uncertainties with regards to the outcomes assessed. The scheme delivers significant user time benefits, which outweigh the associated user charges. The operator revenue generated over the scheme appraisal period is nearly 33% more than the operating costs, indicating a positive overall operating position. Sensitivity testing has been undertaken, and this has contributed to the high level of confidence which can be had in the assessment that the scheme delivers High Value for Money, with all but two of the down-side sensitivities reporting BCRs in excess of In addition to the conventional WebTAG cost-benefit analysis an assessment has been made of the potential increased contribution to local GVA of spend from the increased numbers of visitors in Blackpool if the scheme is implemented. This suggests around m additional GVA over the 60-year appraisal period. The Lower Cost Alternative Option does deliver some benefit but only to passengers wishing to use the existing tramway; it does not provide improved accessibility or connectivity to Blackpool North station or the town centre and does not provide any wider economic benefit to the area. The Financial Case for the scheme is strong. As detailed in the economic case, projected revenues for the operator are larger by a factor of 33% than the increased operating costs incurred as a result of the scheme, thereby forecast to improve the finances of the Tramway. The Commercial Case for the scheme is strong. The contracting and procurement approach is proven in the local context of the successful tramway upgrade and other works done to the tramway over recent years. The procurement process has been undertaken and the Delivery Contract is being agreed with the Preferred Bidder. The Management Case for the scheme is strong. The project team, governance arrangements and the various management plans and strategies including the detailed approach to risk management are appropriate and demonstrate a high level of control. Conclusions The Preferred Option should be progressed with Full Funding Approval from the LEP. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

12 1 Introduction 1.1 Background This document is the Full Business Case (FBC) for the Blackpool North Station Tramway Extension, a scheme to connect Blackpool North Station to the existing tramway at North Pier. The scheme is promoted by Blackpool Council and Blackpool Transport Services (BTS) The Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway underwent a major programme of improvements in the four years to 2012 including improvements to tram infrastructure, highway infrastructure and new tram vehicles. Since reopening, the tramway patronage has increased in line with the forecasts for the business case produced for the upgrade works and in 2016/17 the tramway had its most successful year yet since the re-opening, in terms of patronage and revenue with over 5.1m passengers using the tram However, although the tramway upgrade has been successful, there remains a lack of integration between the tram system which moves people around economically important destinations in Blackpool and the rail system which allows rail access to tourism, jobs and services in Blackpool from the rest of the UK, and access to jobs and services in the rest of the UK (particularly Preston and Lancashire) from Blackpool. Interchange between rail and tram requires a transfer on foot of around 600 metres at the closest interchange points (Figure 1.1). This makes interchange journeys unattractive, especially considering that a walking trip is already likely to have been made to access the initial public transport mode and a further walk to the final destination In 2012, a business case for the integration of the tram and rail systems by extension of the tramway to Blackpool North Station was developed to enable and contribute to economic growth of Blackpool and Lancashire. This was equivalent to a Strategic Outline Business Case. An Outline Business Case (OBC), progressing the scheme further, was submitted in January 2016 and conditionally approved by the LEP in April The promoter applied for powers to build and operate the scheme under a Transport and Works Act Order (TWAO) in July 2016 and awaits a final decision (which is expected in Q3 2017). In all other areas, the scheme is ready to proceed with contracts for construction ready for execution Six objectives informed the option selection and development process. The objectives were developed with close alignment to the planning, transport and economic ambitions of national, sub-regional and local authorities. The objectives are shown below, remain relevant, and are the basis of this update. Maximise growth of the Fylde Coast economy by enhancing accessibility and connectivity to key destinations within and outwith the sub-region. Support and facilitate the sustainable growth of the Fylde Coast sub-region by complementing and, where possible, enhancing current development and regeneration proposals. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

13 Reduce transport s emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases by contributing to wider carbon reduction and mode shift policies for the authorities making up the Fylde Coast sub-region. Promote quality of life through a safe and healthy built and natural environment. Contribute to enhanced quality of life by improving access for all to jobs and services. Ensure affordability, deliverability and Value for Money of the proposed scheme taking account of current Government guidance Following the examination of a number of options for improving integration between the tram and rail systems, the priority improvement scheme was identified as extending the tramway to Blackpool North Station. This would provide a direct interchange opportunity between the tramway and National Rail services There are three movements of people which are of particular importance to the economy of Blackpool and the wider region: Inward movement of tourists to Blackpool from regional and national origins The two-way movement of local residents between the North West and Blackpool for work, leisure and services The internal movement of people between jobs, services and residential areas within Blackpool The case for the scheme is strong; with a clear link between transport need and the economic outlook for Blackpool. Figure 1.1 Walking Distance between Tram and Rail at Blackpool North Station Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

14 1.2 Purpose of Document This document is the Full Business Case (FBC) for Blackpool North Station Tramway Extension. It has been developed to support the application for Full Approval for funding from the Lancashire LEP, following the LEP s FBC template It has been developed in line with the structure set out in the Department for Transport s (DfT) Transport Business Case guidance to establish whether the specified scheme is: Supported by a robust case for change that fits with wider policy objectives (the Strategic Case); Demonstrated to be Value for Money (the Economic Case); Financially affordable (the Financial Case accounting analysis); Commercially viable (the Commercial Case procurement issues); and Achievable (the Management Case deliverability assessment) The detail of the report has been developed to be commensurate with the scale of the scheme. It follows a proportionate approach, as advised by DfT in WebTAG. 1.3 Other Documentation This business case includes information from other documentation produced by the Promoters which gives more information on specific aspects of the scheme: Procurement Strategy, Blackpool Council, September 2015 (rev 03) Procurement Update Report, Blackpool Council, September 2017 (rev 0) Project Governance, Blackpool Council, September 2017 (rev 07) Programme Strategy, Blackpool Council, October 2015 (rev 02) Risk Management, Blackpool Council, November 2015 Cost Report (commercial and confidential), Blackpool Council, September 2017 (rev 08) Communications Strategy, Blackpool Council, July 2015 (rev 02) Stakeholder Management Plan, Blackpool Council, July 2015 (rev 05) Project Communication Plan, Blackpool Council, December 2015 (rev 08) Risk Assessment Matrix, Blackpool Council, November 2015 (rev 01) Blackpool North Tramway CA QRA Report, December 2015 Data Collection Report, Steer Davies Gleave, January 2016 Local Model Validation Report, Steer Davies Gleave, October 2017 Forecasting Report, Steer Davies Gleave, October 2017 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station: Outline Business Case, March 2016 Fylde Coast Transport Study Phase 2: Scheme Option Outline Business Cases, October 2012 Fylde Coast Transport Study: Options Ranking Report, February 2012 Report Summarising Consultation Undertaken, Blackpool Council, TWAO Doc Ref A5 Air Quality Assessment, AECOM on behalf of Blackpool Council, TWAO Doc Ref A14/1 Flood Risk Assessment, AECOM on behalf of Blackpool Council, TWAO Doc Ref A14/2 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

15 Heritage Assessment, AECOM on behalf of Blackpool Council, TWAO Doc Ref A14/3 Transport Assessment, Mott Macdonald on behalf of Blackpool Council, TWAO Doc Ref A14/4 Monitoring and Evaluation Plan, October Document Structure The remainder of the document is structured as follows: Chapter 2: Scheme History and Scheme Description Chapter 3: The Strategic Case Chapter 4: The Economic Case Chapter 5: The Financial Case Chapter 6: The Commercial Case Chapter 7: The Management Case Chapter 8: Summary and Conclusions Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

16 2 Scheme History & Scheme Description 2.1 Introduction This chapter outlines the current context for the scheme and describes the infrastructure and operational changes that comprise the scheme The Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway has undergone a major programme of improvements over four years to April 2012, backed by 100m investment in: 16 new Bombardier trams with low floors, accessible for all users New tram stops featuring near level access Replacement of 8 km of track Installation of 14 priority signals at highway junctions to improve journey times A new tram depot at Starr Gate The tram operates all year round between Starr Gate and Fleetwood (a distance of approximately 18 km). It has a timetable which reflects the different levels of usage by local residents and tourists across the high season (the spring/summer months and the period of the Blackpool Illuminations) and the low season (the rest of the year from November to April) In the low season, services start at 05:00 (Monday to Friday), 06:00 (Saturday) and 07:00 (Sunday) and operate until approximately 23:30. Four trams per hour operate between approximately 08:00 and 19:00 with two per hour at other times In the high season, service frequencies are higher than in the low season. Between approximately 08:00 and 18:00 weekend trams operate six times per hour. Between the same hours, approximately 08:00 and 18:00 on Mondays to Fridays either five or six trams per hour are operated depending on demand. Evening services run four times per hour Bispham and Starr Gate and twice per hour between Fleetwood and Bispham Since the completion of the upgrade in 2012, more passengers have been carried on the tram than before which indicates the success of the upgrade project (Figure 2.1). A seasonal profile of demand across the high and low seasons is also evident. The reduction in patronage in 2014 was due to changes to the concessionary fare structure (when free travel on the tram system for concessionary pass holders not resident in Blackpool was withdrawn) Blackpool North Station offers access to frequent rail services for visitors to Blackpool as well as Blackpool residents travelling to/from Preston, Manchester and beyond There are typically four direct trains per hour from Blackpool North to a number of destinations including Manchester Airport and Manchester Victoria, York and Hazel Grove. The station thereby provides access to a Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

17 number of key locations within the North West such as Wigan, Preston and Blackburn. Figure 2.1 Historical Tram Patronage up to end of 2016/17 in 28 day periods Source: Steer Davies Gleave Analysis of ETM Data, Blackpool Transport Services NB Tram patronage has been estimated for Period / Currently, interchange between rail and tram requires a transfer on foot of around 600 metres at the closest interchange points. This makes interchange journeys unattractive There are three key types of movement where the current lack of integration between the tram and rail networks is a barrier to realising the full economic potential of Blackpool and the Fylde Coast sub-region: At present, anyone wishing to reach the tourist attractions (the majority of which are situated along the Promenade) needs to either walk the 600 metre distance (approximately 8 minutes travel time on foot) from Blackpool North Station to access the tramway, or use another mode directly from the station to the final destination (bus, taxi or walk). Easier, integrated connectivity between rail and tram would make Blackpool a more attractive tourist and leisure destination, and improve the experience of existing visitors. Similarly, there is significant in- and out-commuting between Blackpool and the Fylde Coast sub-region and the wider North West. Integrating the tram and rail networks would improve access to jobs and services both for commuters coming into Blackpool and for commuters who live in Blackpool but work elsewhere. The labour market catchment would be widened for jobs and services within Blackpool and in the Fylde Coast and beyond. The tramway is well used within Blackpool to access destinations along its length which make up a significant proportion of the important trip attractors and generators in the area. There is a disconnect between these and recent developments (such as the CBD development in the vicinity of Blackpool North Station) and the surrounding residential and commercial areas around and to the east of the station. Integration of the tram and rail Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

18 networks would both improve connectivity to Blackpool as well as improve accessibility across Blackpool - offering new public transport trip opportunities and additional capacity between important destinations that help drive the Blackpool economy This business case demonstrates how the tram extension will improve integration between tram and rail, deliver benefits for leisure visitors, tourists, and Blackpool residents (both commuters and those seeking services), and ultimately unlock the potential for and contribute to economic growth in Blackpool, the Fylde Coast and the wider region, all in a way that offers Value for Money. 2.2 Scheme History In 2011/12 the Fylde Coast Transport Study (funded by the European Union through the SINTROPHER initiative) assessed various options to better integrate the tram and rail networks in Blackpool and the wider Fylde Coast sub-region. A long-list of options encompassing tram-train connections to both the North and South Fylde heavy rail lines, and various extensions of the tramway (including to the airport and other destinations) was assessed qualitatively and quantitatively. The best performing option (against the scheme objectives and in terms of its economic case) was an extension of the tramway to Blackpool North rail station The Fylde Coast Transport Study concluded in 2012 with the production of a business case for a tramway extension scheme. The 2012 business case was akin to a 'Strategic Outline Business Case' which would have been submitted to the Department for Transport to obtain a decision in principle on funding the scheme (i.e. Programme Entry) should such an option have been available. As such, the Strategic and Economic Cases were well-developed, with some development of the Financial Case, and less development of the Commercial and Management Cases The assumed service pattern of the 2012 scheme diverted three trams per hour per direction from travelling only on the main north-south axis of the tramway to a new spur at Blackpool North Station. The operating pattern included a reversal at Blackpool North. Whilst generating significant demand, revenue and benefits overall, a disbenefit was introduced for passengers travelling through the North Pier tram stop (that did not want to board/alight the tram at Blackpool North Station). To partially overcome this disbenefit a seamless interchange solution was developed whereby the through passengers could board any tram (including those travelling towards the station) and then easily interchange at Talbot Square tram stop to continue their journey and bypass the station The business case noted that there was significant risk around delivering the level of seamless interchange required and testing showed that the level of benefits delivered was sensitive to this assumption The 2012 business case was supported by: consultation of the public, businesses and other stakeholders, development of a preliminary design for the required infrastructure, development of a suitable service pattern for operating trams to the station, an operating cost model and quantitative assessment of the benefits and costs of the scheme. This demonstrated the scheme offered 'High Value for Money'. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

19 2.2.6 The business case was not submitted to the Department for Transport because the process for funding major transport schemes was undergoing significant change, with a new focus on local decision making and accountability through the processes of the Local Enterprise Partnership, to which major transport scheme funding has now been devolved Information from the 2012 business case was submitted in 2013/14 to the Lancashire LEP, and attained 'Programme Entry' status, indicating a decision in principle to fund the scheme. As part of the process to obtain Programme Entry status, the business case was reviewed by the LEP's independent assurance advisors, who recommended a number of refinements that would improve the robustness of the business case before submission for Conditional Approval In addition to the refinements requested by the assurance advisors, the scheme was then developed further both to remove the disbenefit caused to through passengers at North Pier and to respond to the changing project context; which includes the development in the Blackpool North area and patronage growth on the tramway An Outline Business Case was submitted to Lancashire LEP in March 2016 demonstrating that the updated scheme had High Value for Money. The LEP s independent auditors reviewed the business case at that time providing comments which were addressed before submission with a number of recommendations that have now been addressed in this full approval application. The LEP granted Conditional Approval in April The promoter applied for powers to build and operate the scheme under a Transport and Works Act Order (TWAO) in July In advance of the TWAO, a screening decision (in March 2016) confirmed that the environmental impacts of the scheme were such that a full environmental statement was not required. Instead, discrete air quality, flood risk and heritage assessments were prepared to accompany the TWAO application. In September 2016 the Secretary of State for Transport announced that a Public Inquiry was not required and the application would be considered through written representations. The written representations process concluded in December 2016 at which time only two objections remained. A decision is expected in Q An OJEU notice was published in March 2017 seeking tenders to construct the scheme. In September 2017, the promoter selected a Preferred Bidder and confirmed the final tender price which has been used in this FBC. An order for the additional tram vehicles needed to operate the extension has been made, taking advantage of an option on the previous vehicle supply contract to obtain best value. An order has been placed with Statutory Undertakers to ensure that the necessary works can be completed within the programme. 2.3 Scheme Description Scope of Works The Blackpool North Tramway Extension will extend the current tramway from the North Pier tram stop on the Promenade to Blackpool North Station, Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

20 approximately 600 metres inland on Talbot Road (see Figure 2.2). A drawing of the Preferred Option is included in Appendix A It is intended that the tramway extension will be opened by the Summer of 2019, with construction due between April 2018 and July Figure 2.2 Location of the Scheme Engineering Works The scheme includes the following engineering works: Track: The new double track will be designed to accommodate pedestrians, cyclists, buses and cars. Double-track gives the capacity to reliably deliver the proposed service frequency Platform enhancement: Platforms will be placed to give line of sight to and from Blackpool North Station Improved pedestrian environment: Walking routes will be improved between trains and trams Highway junctions: Changes to a number of junctions and the traffic management system to accommodate tram infrastructure and services will be implemented Highway surfaces: Renewed surfacing in the scheme area Overhead wires: Installed as part of the scheme. Scheme Costs Capital Costs The total cost of works for the scheme is 23.4m (in nominal or outturn terms), including risk. Further details of the estimation of capital costs can be found in Chapter 5. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

21 2.3.5 Following the proven methodology for the previous upgrade works, contracts will be managed closely with the most cost-effective delivery methods used throughout, to provide a high quality but affordable scheme. Operational Costs The additional operating costs for a typical year are set out in Table 2.1 (in 2015 prices). Further details of the derivation of operating costs can be found in Chapter 3. Table 2.1: Average Operating Costs for Blackpool North Extension Crew Electricity Materials (km based) Materials (tram based) 556,153 75,513 36,012 23, The crew, electricity and materials (km based) metrics (i.e. km) are constant over the appraisal period, although the unit rate for these grows in RPI real terms by 1% per annum until The materials (tram based) value is an average which varies between 0 and 247k, as it reflects the costs of period unit overhaul or replacement plus a mid-life overhaul As the extension is small compared to the total size of the system, the establishment of tram maintenance staff and track maintenance costs are assumed to remain constant. Project Timescales The programme for implementation of the scheme is shown in Table 2.2. Table 2.2: Proposed Project Timescales Event Timeframe Submission of Conditional Approval January 2016 Business Case Conditional Approval April 2016 General arrangement designs July 2016 TWAO submitted June 2016 Final design released October 2017 Contractor procurement commences Early 2017 Preferred Bidder appointed September 2017 Expected: Secretary of State decision October 2017 Full Approval December 2017 Construction begins April 2018 Scheme Opening July 2019 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

22 3 The Strategic Case 3.1 Introduction This Chapter sets out the need for intervention, outlines how the scheme objectives have been formulated, provides information about preferred and alternative options and discusses the fit of the scheme to local, regional and national policies Sections to provide a high level overview of the need for intervention within the specific geographical and transport context of the area. The Need for Intervention The rail and tram systems in Blackpool are not currently integrated. This is a barrier to various types of economic activity. Figure 3.1 shows the disconnect between the tram system and rail services at Blackpool North Station which results in an approximately 600 metre walk between the two different modes which makes journeys requiring interchange unattractive to users. Figure 3.1: Disconnect between Tram System and Rail at Blackpool North Station There are three movements of people which are of particular importance to the economy of Blackpool and the wider region: Inward movement of tourists to Blackpool from regional and national origins The two-way movement of local residents between the North West and Blackpool for work, leisure and services The internal movement of people between jobs, services and residential areas within Blackpool Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

23 3.1.5 In the following sections, the evidence for the need for intervention is discussed in the context of these three types of economic movement and in each the fit with the scheme objectives and the link to the economic case is demonstrated. Study Scope Located within the Fylde Coast sub-region (Blackpool Borough, Fylde and Wyre Districts and Lancashire County council areas), the Blackpool Borough local authority area is the third most densely populated area in the North West The town of Blackpool is a major tourist destination in the North West of England and in the United Kingdom. The proposed tram extension is located in Blackpool Town Centre close to the retail areas and to the Promenade which hosts many tourist attractions. Figure 3.2: Blackpool and the Fylde Coast 3.2 Existing Arrangements Current Transport Offer Rail There are four rail stations in the Blackpool local authority area: Layton, Blackpool South, Blackpool Pleasure Beach and Blackpool North. Blackpool North is the busiest station with approximately six times more passengers passing through per year than Layton, Blackpool South and Blackpool Pleasure Beach combined. 2 1 KS101EW, Usual Resident Population, 2011 Census 2 Office of Rail and Road, Station Usage 2015/16 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

24 3.2.2 Table 3.1 shows that trains from Blackpool North Station serve the end destinations of Manchester Airport, Manchester Victoria, York and Hazel Grove (Stockport). The station is connected to a network which provides access to a number of key locations within the North West including Wigan, Preston and Blackburn. Blackpool North offers strategic connectivity to these locations, amongst others, for Blackpool residents and tourists Blackpool North Station has limited long stay parking provision at the rail station, with most bays reserved for vehicles parking for 20 minutes or less From January 2015, there has been one direct daily service from Blackpool North to London at 05:25 and one direct returning daily service from London Euston to Blackpool North at 16:33. Table 3.1: Rail Routes and Frequencies from Blackpool North Route Blackpool North to Manchester Victoria (route via Preston) Blackpool North to Manchester Airport (route via Preston and Manchester Piccadilly) Blackpool North to York (route via Preston) Blackpool North to Hazel Grove (route via Preston and Manchester Piccadilly) Bus Monday to Sunday 1 direct train per hour 1 direct train per hour 1 direct train per hour 1 direct train per hour Bus passenger journeys in the Blackpool area have declined between 2009/10 and 2013/14. Total bus passenger journeys in Blackpool in 2009/2010 amounted to 12.8 million journeys. In 2013/14 this figure had decreased to 11.1 million journeys. This declining trend of bus patronage in Blackpool) is consistent with the trends observed across Lancashire which has seen bus patronage decline of 22% over the same period. This is higher than the decline in bus patronage observed nationally (outside London) of 5% between 2009/10 and 2013/ As shown in Figure 3.3, Blackpool North Station does not have any bus stops immediately adjacent. It is however, within approximately 150 m of a number of services 4 which serve Talbot Road (Stops TA4 northeast-bound and TA2 southwest-bound as shown on Figure 3.3): 2 (Cleveleys Square to Blackpool Town Centre) 2C (Blackpool Town Centre to Knott End via Victoria Hospital) 5 (Halfway House via Layton, Blackpool Town Centre and South Shore) 6 (Mereside to Grange Park via Blackpool and Layton) 7 (Lytham to Cleveleys Bus Station via Blackpool Town Centre) 9 (Blackpool Town Centre to Cleveleys Bus Station) 14 (Peel Park to Fleetwood Ferry via Blackpool Town Centre) 15 (Blackpool South Circular Clockwise to Blackpool) 3 Department for Transport Statistics, Bus Statistics Table BUS0109a 4 As at 28/09/2017 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

25 16 (Blackpool South Circular Anti-Clockwise to Blackpool) 42 (Stagecoach service Blackpool to Garstang) 61 (Stagecoach service Blackpool to Preston) 74 (Stagecoach service Blackpool to Poulton) The bus services that terminate in the Town Centre use stops on Market Street and Corporation Street close to, but not on the Promenade. Services 5, 6 and 7 run briefly along the Promenade allowing interchange with the tram A number of bus services link Blackpool North Station and the Promenade. These include14, 15/16, 2C, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9 (run by BTS), 42, 61 and 74 (run by Stagecoach). Figure 3.3: Buses close to Blackpool North Station Source: NB Service 22 is on the map but has since been withdrawn Tram The tram network in Blackpool extends approximately 18 km largely along the seafront between Starr Gate in the south to Fleetwood in the north. It provides access to the main tourist attractions such as the three piers, Blackpool Tower and Pleasure Beach The core tram service runs between Starr Gate and Fleetwood. Service levels can be described as: High - 6 trams per hour per direction Shoulder - 5 trams per hour per direction Low - 4 trams per hour per direction These three service levels are applied across four operating seasons and days of the week as shown in Table 3.2. Table 3.2: Season Service Split Season Monday - Friday Saturday Sunday Thursday Winter Low Low Low Low Spring Shoulder Shoulder High High Summer High High High High Illuminations Shoulder High High High Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

26 Services run less frequently in the early morning and evenings. Additional services are operated during the Illuminations using spare Flexity- 2 5 trams and the B series fleet 6. Heritage services at a premium price are also run using historic trams. Problems and Opportunities As Figure 3.1 illustrates, there is currently poor integration between the tram system and rail network. Specifically, there is no connection between the transport hub at Blackpool North Station and the tram network Integrating the two systems presents an opportunity to improve the attractiveness of journeys via public transport which involve interchange and will improve access to jobs and services for local residents and tourists who visit the town. The following sections explore the specific types of movements and people that will benefit The physical and environmental constraints in an area may prove a barrier to a scheme s implementation. This section identifies that there are no constraints which would prevent an extension of the tramway going ahead The proposed Blackpool tramway extension is located on Talbot Road between the North Pier and Blackpool North Station. The route passes through the Town Centre Air Quality Management Area (AQMA) and a Conservation Area. Seven Listed Buildings are located adjacent to the route (six Grade II and one Grade II*). There are no scheduled monuments or designated sites of nature conservation within 2.5 km of the site. The scheme is within a Flood Zone 1 (low risk) and there is a low potential for protected or inverse species to occur close to the route There is no reason why these aspects of the local context should constrain the scheme. Where appropriate, the scheme will include measures to mitigate or reduce potential adverse impacts on the locale so that any adverse impacts can be removed or materially reduced There are no physical constraints to prevent the proposed extension going ahead. Inward movement of tourists to Blackpool from regional and national origins In this section, evidence is presented demonstrating the importance of tourism and other visitors to the economy of Blackpool, the benefit of changing the current transport options for these trip types and how improved integration between the tram and rail networks would have a positive effect on the Blackpool economy. 5 The current fleet consists of 16 Flexity-2 trams 6 These are 9 double deckers converted to use the infrastructure provided for the modern trams. These are not the heritage trams. The B series sometimes run as extra services in the summer and for the illuminations. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

27 In 2013, Blackpool was ranked as the 6 th most popular travel destination in the UK 7. More than ten million people visited within 2014, up more than 300,000 from the previous year Tourism is a key part of the local economy. Table 3.3 shows that around 12% of workers in Blackpool are employed in the accommodation and food services sector. This is more than double the proportion of people employed in this sector in the North West and nationally - a reflection of the importance of the tourist industry in the town. Table 3.3: Top Five Employment Sectors in Blackpool Industry Blackpool % North West National % % Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles (G) Human health and social work activities (Q) Accommodation and food service activities (I) Public administration and defence; compulsory social security (O) Manufacturing (C) Source: 2011 Census Estimates suggest that in a single year, 9.1 million visitors arrive by car, 2.6 million by coach and 1.3 million by train to Blackpool 10. These statistics show that although car is the most utilised method to access Blackpool, almost a third of visitors arrive in Blackpool by public transport It has been suggested that the weather can make patterns of arrival at Blackpool across the year unpredictable 11. In combination with the high volumes of commuter traffic by car, this can result in congestion on strategic routes into the town. The variable levels of tourist traffic have made it difficult to implement strategies to reduce congestion in the town LTP3 indicates that congestion should not inhibit the potential prosperity of the local economy, specifically the attractiveness and accessibility of Blackpool for tourists. Increasing travel to Blackpool via sustainable modes is therefore an important part of managing congestion within Blackpool which may be augmented by visitor travel to and from the town. Further, such congestion may deter some visitors travelling to Blackpool Blackpool North is the busiest of the four Blackpool stations: 85% of all rail users using the four Blackpool stations travelled through this station in 2013/ TripAdvisor Travellers Choice Destinations winners, National figures derived from England and Wales averages 10 Fylde Coast highways and Transport Masterplan, Consultation Draft, December Transport-Masterplan.pdf 12 Office of Road and Rail, Station Usage 2015/16 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

28 Passenger surveys undertaken at Blackpool North Station in August 2015 provide insight into how passengers to/from the area use rail services and connecting modes to access rail. This provided information about the origins and destinations of existing station users and details about existing methods of access and egress from the station: Overall, 70% of people using Blackpool North Station were travelling for visitor/tourist purposes Approximately 46% of all surveyed passengers indicated that access or egress from the station was on foot, 9% by bus and 32% by taxi Only 2% of rail passengers specified that they currently used the tram Tourists to Blackpool are attracted to the seafront where the main visitor destinations are located such as the piers, Pleasure Beach and Blackpool Tower, as well as the Illuminations. The uniqueness and heritage of the Blackpool tram system is an attraction for Blackpool in its own right Figure 3.4 and Figure 3.5 show that a large number of pedestrians going to/from the station on foot are travelling to tourist attractions in Blackpool, mostly along the seafront A buffer of 800 m 13 about the tramway has been used to see if the origins and destinations of Blackpool North passengers are within the catchment of the tramway. 68% of boarders at Blackpool North came from within 800 m of the tramway and 76% of alighters from Blackpool North went to destinations within 800 m of the tramway. This demonstrates the large number of rail users who visit destinations within a walking catchment of the tramway A large proportion of station users walked between the station and destinations along the Promenade which are already served by the tram. It is an 8 minute walk between Blackpool North and North Pier. If the station and Promenade were more conveniently connected, people could get to the tourist destinations quicker and more easily. This would make tourism to Blackpool by public transport more attractive In summary, integration of tram and rail would result in: Time savings and convenience for tourists and visitors who already come to Blackpool Increased attractiveness of Blackpool to new tourists who would otherwise travel elsewhere Increased spend in the Blackpool economy at shops, restaurants and tourist attractions (both because of there being new visits but also because time saved by existing visitors can be used to stay longer) These outcomes are well-aligned to the following objectives for intervention (the full set of objectives can be found later in this document): Maximise growth of the Fylde Coast economy by enhancing accessibility and connectivity to key destinations within and outwith the sub-region Support and facilitate the sustainable growth of the Fylde Coast sub-region by complementing and, where possible, enhancing current development and regeneration proposals Reduce transport s emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases by contributing to wider carbon reduction and mode shift policies for the authorities making up the Fylde Coast sub-region m is a recognised maximum walk access distance for access to a rail station and has been used here as the tramway has similar, fixed infrastructure to heavy rail. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

29 Figure 3.4: Origins of People Boarding at the Station who Walked or came by Tram Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

30 Figure 3.5: Destinations of People on Foot or By Tram Alighting at Station The two-way movement of local residents between the North West and Blackpool for work, leisure and services In this section, evidence is presented demonstrating the importance of a well-integrated public transport network in Blackpool for commuters to and from the town and its importance to Blackpool residents wishing to access the wider selection of services and opportunities outside Blackpool, but in the Lancashire and wider North West region. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

31 The evidence looks at the importance of inbound movements to Blackpool and outbound movements from Blackpool separately, excluding those classified as visitor/tourists examined in the previous section. Inbound Flows The 2011 Census records that 142,000 people live in the Blackpool local authority area and 326,000 people reside within the Fylde sub-region The Census also recorded that 19,887 people aged 16 years old or more (i.e. of working age) travelled from outside Blackpool to jobs located within Blackpool local authority area on 27th March % of these people being from the North West region of England. This represents the scale of daily commuters into the Blackpool local authority area. 15. Table 3.4 shows the place of residence of those who work in Blackpool The majority of movements are within the Blackpool local authority area; however 31% are from the neighbouring authorities Wyre, Fylde and Preston. Table 3.4: Place of residence of workers working within Blackpool Local Authority Area Proportion of those working within Blackpool Blackpool 62% Wyre 19% Fylde 10% Preston 2% Other (England and Northern Ireland) 7% Source: 2011 Census, WU03UK Table 3.5 shows the modes used to access jobs in Blackpool. Overall, the most common mode is car. However, within the Blackpool authority area a large proportion commute on foot. This is likely to be a result of either low car ownership or because of the dense geography of the town, with high levels of residential areas within close proximity of the central areas of the town where job opportunities are located After car, bus is the next most common mode for commuting, followed by rail. Train is a common choice for of people commuting from Preston which is partially a reflection of the high frequency of services between the two locations (up to four direct trains per hour). However, as a mode to commute to Blackpool, overall rail is not widely used Across the four local authorities, only 19 people indicated their use of the tram for commuting which shows as 0% use in the Table 3.5 and Table 3.7. This is due to the following: During the 2011 Census, the tramway was closed as it underwent a major upgrade. It was therefore unavailable as an option to answer how people travelled to work on the 27 th March 2011 Where the tram was noted in the completion of the Census, this was in error 14 Census 2011, KS101EW -Usual Resident Population 15 Census 2011, KS101EW -Usual Resident Population Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

32 In the August 2012 passenger surveys undertaken on the tramway (2,409 interviews over one week), 14% of passengers were using the tramway for travel to or from work (data included in Local Model Validation Report). This was a considerable increase from the 3% who were using the tram for commuting in 2009, suggesting that the upgraded tramway is now a viable commuting option. Table 3.5: Mode of Travel to Blackpool for Employment Origin Underground, metro, light rail or tram Train Bus, minibus or coach Car Bicycle On foot Other Blackpool 0% 0% 11% 59% 4% 23% 2% Fylde 0% 1% 6% 87% 2% 2% 2% Wyre 0% 0% 8% 85% 2% 3% 2% Preston 0% 3% 3% 90% 1% 2*% 1% *Suspected incorrect survey completion as too far to commute on foot Source: 2011 Census, WU03UK Passenger surveys undertaken at Blackpool North Station in August 2015 have been used to establish the frequency, destination and purpose of rail travellers to Blackpool. Figure 3.6 shows that the majority of people (after tourism is excluded) who travel to Blackpool by rail do so for the purpose of commuting, with leisure the next most important trip purpose. Figure 3.6: Inbound Travel Purposes for People Alighting at Blackpool North Station The main employers in the town are shown in Figure 3.7. Many large employers are clustered close to the Promenade. It should be noted that employment varies by season and therefore information showing the scale of employers cannot represent that this seasonality. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

33 Figure 3.7: Major Employers in Blackpool Outbound Flows ,864 working age people (aged 16 years old or more) travel to work elsewhere from Blackpool local authority. 98% of these people work within the North West region of England 16. This is a significant out-commuting flow from Blackpool but lower than the in-commuting flow into Blackpool Table 3.6 shows where people from the Blackpool authority area are travelling to for work. 16 Census 2011, WU03UK - Location of usual residence and place of work by method of travel to work Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

34 The majority of people work within the Blackpool area. However, 28% of people commute from Blackpool to the neighbouring authority areas of Wyre, Fylde and Preston with a further 7% commuting to other destinations. Table 3.6: Location of work of workers resident in Blackpool Local Authority Area Location of work of Blackpool residents Blackpool 65% Wyre 10% Fylde 14% Preston 4% Other (England and Northern Ireland) 7% Source: 2011 Census, WU03UK Commuter travel modes from Blackpool to Fylde, Wyre and Preston are shown in Table 3.7. Overall, car is the most commonly used mode After car, bus is the next common mode for commuting, particularly for trips to Fylde and Wyre. Rail is the more common mode for public transport travel from Preston to Blackpool which again, could reflect the high frequency of services between Preston and Blackpool with four direct services per hour Travel by active modes (walking and cycling) is also common for travel between Blackpool and Fylde and Blackpool and Wyre which aligns presumably for short commuting journeys across the authority boundaries A total of 6 people indicated their use of the tram for commuting from these areas. This is shown as 0% in the table below. This is due to the following: During the 2011 Census, the tramway was closed as it underwent a major upgrade. It was therefore unavailable as an option to answer how people travelled to work on the 27th March 2011 Where the tram was noted in the completion of the Census, this was in error Table 3.7: Mode of Travel from Blackpool for Employment Underground, metro, light rail or tram Train Bus, minibus or coach Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final Car Bicycle On foot Other Fylde 0% 1% 9% 81% 3% 4% 2% Wyre 0% 0% 8% 80% 3% 6% 3% Preston 0% 8% 3% 85% 1% 2*% 1% Source: 2011 Census, WU03UK *Suspected incorrect survey completion as too far to commute on foot In addition to commuting, people also travel from Blackpool to other areas to access a wider range of services, such as healthcare or educational facilities Passenger surveys undertaken at Blackpool North Station in August 2015 provide information about the frequency, destination and purpose of rail travellers from Blackpool Figure 3.8 shows that (after tourism is excluded) the most common trip purpose for rail travel outbound from Blackpool is leisure and the next most common trip purpose is commuting. Table 3.7 indicates the type of services and opportunities available in Blackpool, Preston, Bolton and Manchester.

35 Figure 3.8: Outbound Travel Purposes from Blackpool North Station Figure 3.9 shows that Preston is the most important single destination for commuter and business travellers from Blackpool. This supports the information within Table 3.8 indicating the importance of this sub-regional destination. Table 3.8: Facilities Available in Urban Centres in the North West of England Facility Blackpool Preston Bolton Manchester 2014 Mid-Year Population Estimate of the Local Authority Universities Hospital Major Retail Opportunities Key Industries 140, , , ,200 Blackpool Victoria Hospital Tourism, Government University of Central Lancashire, Preston University Royal Preston Hospital Defence/Aerospace Energy (Nuclear), Distribution, Financial services University of Bolton Royal Bolton Hospital Business services, Manufacturing University of Manchester, Manchester Metropolitan University, University of Salford Manchester Royal Infirmary, North Manchester General Hospital, St Mary s Hospital Regional Centre shops, Trafford Centre Financial Services, Manufacturing and Engineering, Health, Retail, Education Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

36 Figure 3.9: Destination Stations for Commuter and Business Rail Travellers from Blackpool North Station Conclusion Significant numbers of workers commute to work in Blackpool and conversely a similar (but lower) number commute from Blackpool to work elsewhere. A small proportion of commuters use rail, and there is also a Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

37 significant proportion of leisure, other and business travel using rail to and from Blackpool However, the number of rail trips to and from Blackpool remains low compared to car. The convenience of car travel and the limited parking at the station are likely to be deterring people from using rail as an option to travel from Blackpool Better integration of the tram and rail networks would attract people to rail as a mode to access jobs and services within Blackpool and beyond in the North West region In summary, integration of tram and rail would result in: Enhanced uptake of public transport Time savings and convenience for people coming to Blackpool from elsewhere Time savings and convenience for people accessing jobs and services beyond Blackpool These outcomes are well-aligned to the following objectives for intervention: Maximise growth of the Fylde Coast economy by enhancing accessibility and connectivity to key destinations within and outwith the sub-region Reduce transport s emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases by contributing to wider carbon reduction and mode shift policies for the authorities making up the Fylde Coast sub-region Contribute to enhanced quality of life by improving access for all to jobs and services The internal movement of people between jobs, services and residential areas within Blackpool In this section, the importance of a well-integrated transport system for people making movements within and between the area surrounding and east of the station and the other tram-served areas is demonstrated Blackpool Town Centre is a compact area. Figure 3.10 shows that the majority of the tourist and retail based employment opportunities are broadly within a 500m wide strip running parallel to the Promenade in an area designated as the Resort Core. Residential areas are located both within the Resort Core and adjoining the Resort Core in dense patches The Talbot Gateway Central Business District (CBD) is a major development surrounding Blackpool North Station. The Masterplan for the CBD contains: A new public square (completed) 125,000 sq ft Grade A civic office (completed) 120,000 sq ft Sainsbury s Foodstore (completed) 35,0000 sq ft retail and leisure space (completed) Multi-storey car park (completed) Hotel development 1,400 car parking spaces New station entrance and transport interchange Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

38 The CBD is just of a number of regeneration projects which have occurred in recent years in the town. Other similar schemes include the Winter Gardens regeneration and Conference Centre, the improved seafront and headlands between North Pier and the Sandcastle Leisure Park (including the Blackpool Tower Festival Headland), Blackpool Tower refurbishment, the revised Promenade road layout and the upgrades to the tramway. These projects are supporting new employment opportunities and revitalising the central areas, making Blackpool a more attractive destination An enhanced connection between tram and rail will improve access from residential areas already served by the tram to jobs and services which already exist or will be associated with the developments in the central town and Promenade areas Conversely, integration of tram and rail will improve access for those who live in the central areas and work in the Promenade area Town Centre Quality Corridors are key infrastructure projects for Blackpool. The Corridors will encourage active modes travel through the provision of public realm infrastructure and create gateways into the town centre. The corridors are planned for Talbot Road, Dickson Road, Church Street, Cookson Street, Caunce Street, Edward Street and Deansgate Integration of the rail and tram systems would complement the Town Centre Quality Corridors scheme (the Talbot Road Quality Corridor will be delivered as part of the proposed tram scheme ensuring coordination of delivery though separately funded), giving prominence to sustainable travel for local people into the central areas of the town. The tram extension also includes some elements of urban realm enhancement In addition to direct improvements for local connectivity, integration of tram and rail will influence the types and location of future developments in the town. This is of importance to the town which is looking to revitalise the central retail areas and attract investment close to the station Existing tram services on the existing tram route along the seafront experience crowding during peak times and require two conductors per vehicle to adequately check and issue tickets and collect revenue. Any increase to tram frequency along sections of the existing line will reduce peak loadings of each vehicle, meaning that in addition to the benefit of lower wait times, existing passengers will also experience more comfortable journeys In summary, integration of tram and rail would result in: Increased uptake of public transport, including mode shift from car which gives rise to decongestion benefits Time savings and enhanced convenience for people accessing jobs and services within Blackpool Positive impacts for the location of development which also brings wider employment opportunities to the town These outcomes are well-aligned to the following objectives for intervention: Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

39 Maximise growth of the Fylde Coast economy by enhancing accessibility and connectivity to key destinations within and outwith the sub-region Support and facilitate the sustainable growth of the Fylde Coast sub-region by complementing and, where possible, enhancing current development and regeneration proposals Reduce transport s emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases by contributing to wider carbon reduction and mode shift policies for the authorities making up the Fylde Coast sub-region Promote quality of life through a safe and healthy built and natural environment (applicable to outward flows only) Contribute to enhanced quality of life by improving access for all to jobs and services Figure 3.10: Spatial Plan of Blackpool Source: Blackpool Local Plan Part 1: Core Strategy Proposed Submission, June 2014 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

40 3.3 Behavioural Barriers An extension to the tramway would be an addition to what is already a wellestablished part of the public transport offer in Blackpool Section 3.1 outlines that without the scheme, there is a physical disconnect in the transport provision for Blackpool. This is affecting the attractiveness of public transport for tourists and commuters The extension of the tram will complement development in the town centre and represents an opportunity to enhance the attractiveness of the central areas for visitors and for developers Potential barriers to behavioural change which may impact upon the success of the scheme include: Imperfect alignment of the tram arrivals and departures with rail services at Blackpool North Station would reduce the potential attractiveness and journey time benefits The fare to use the extension reduces its attractiveness relative to the option of walking instead Imperfect operation of the interchange at Bispham would reduce the potential attractiveness and journey time benefits for users from Fleetwood/Cleveleys to Blackpool North Station Each of these barriers has been modelled in the central economic case to give conservative results: The interchange time between rail and tram at Blackpool North has been calculated and then a slightly higher value has been used in the public transport model Users (with the exception of Blackpool resident concessionary pass holders) are represented as paying a higher fare to use the extension The interchange at Bispham is not specifically represented within the model. Interchange wait times at Bispham are based on the standard service headway model 3.4 Scheme Objectives The scheme objectives were developed during the Fylde Coast Transport Study in 2011 following a policy review of local, regional and national objectives and consultation with the Reference Group for that study, which included representatives from Blackpool, Fylde, Wyre and Lancashire councils 17. The policy review has been updated in detail within Section 3.6. The objectives are consistent with the need for intervention The scheme objectives are: 1. Maximise growth of the Fylde Coast economy by enhancing accessibility and connectivity to key destinations within and outwith the sub-region. 2. Support and facilitate the sustainable growth of the Fylde Coast sub-region by complementing and, where possible, enhancing current development and regeneration proposals. 17 Fylde Coast Transport Study: Options Ranking Report, February 2012 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

41 3. Reduce transport s emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases by contributing to wider carbon reduction and mode shift policies for the authorities making up the Fylde Coast sub-region. 4. Promote quality of life through a safe and healthy built and natural environment. 5. Contribute to enhanced quality of life by improving access for all to jobs and services. 6. Ensure affordability, deliverability and Value for Money of the proposed scheme taking account of current Government guidance Table 3.9 shows the detail behind the established objectives and alignment to the local, regional and national policies. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

42 Table 3.9 Alignment of Objectives to Key Policies Number Objective Detail Alignment to Policy Objectives 1 Maximise growth of the Fylde Coast economy by enhancing accessibility and connectivity to key destinations within and outwith the sub-region. 2 Support and facilitate the sustainable growth of the Fylde Coast sub-region by complementing and, where possible, enhancing current development and regeneration proposals. 3 Reduce transport s emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases by contributing to wider carbon reduction and This ultimately means maximising the Present Value of Benefits of the final proposal in terms of a traditional Value for Money case (user benefits such as journey time benefits and non-user benefits such as congestion relief) and other impacts such as the Wider Economic Impacts that come from enhanced connectivity to the region s economy and residents. This relates to the spatial aspects of growth and development in the sub-region. Interventions should take account of current constraints on the transport network in relation to current economic activity and where development is planned in the future. The location and routing of options can be assessed against the location of current and future development These objectives both have an environmental aim. The split is broadly a spatial one with #3 concerning global environmental issues and #4 aimed at the local environment. Global concerns are emissions (CO 2 and other greenhouse gases) DfT Local Transport White Paper: Encourage economic growth SINTROPHER Initiative Assess and promote development of new or improved tram services, linked to National Rail systems Strategic Economic Plan The development of a renewal strategy for Blackpool to sustain the growth to the visitor economy Blackpool LTP3 Objective 3 Manage congestion levels on Blackpool s roads, especially where it impacts on local economic performance Objective 4 Improve transport to and within the resort, particularly by more sustainable modes, to enhance the visitor experience and support the local economy Core Strategy Sustainable development: Economic, social and environmental Blackpool LTP3 Objective 1 Improve, maintain and make best use of Blackpool s transport network; in particular its roads, footways and bridges Town Centre Strategy Strengthen the Town Centre as a vibrant leisure, entertainment, cultural and business tourism destination for residents and visitors Grow the Town Centre as a place to do business by creating a Central Business District and creative industries hub DfT Local Transport White Paper: Reduce carbon emissions DfT Door to Door Encourage the use of active modes and public transport across the entire door to door journey. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

43 Number Objective Detail Alignment to Policy Objectives mode shift policies for the authorities making up the Fylde Coast subregion. whilst local concerns include the built environment, local air quality, noise etc. Likely impacts on both objectives can be estimated with both quantitative (e.g. emissions) and qualitative (e.g. impact on the built environment) methods. 4 Promote quality of life through a safe and healthy built and natural environment. 5 Contribute to enhanced quality of life by improving access for all to jobs and services. 6 Ensure affordability, deliverability and Value for Money of the proposed scheme taking account of current Government guidance. This objective is concerned with improving access to services such as (but not limited to) health (e.g. Blackpool Victoria Hospital), education (e.g. Blackpool & the Fylde College) and also improving access and interchange at major transport hubs such as Blackpool North Station which will contribute to people s ability to access employment and other services. Improvements to journey times to specific key locations are easily measured through the modelling process. This objective is important to ensure that interventions make the best use of the resources available, both existing and new. It is important to ensure that any intervention selected has the best chance of obtaining funding from Government. The Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) of the project is a key metric when it comes to considering Value for Money. Reducing carbon from transport. SINTROPHER Initiative Encourage a modal shift towards sustainable modes of transport Blackpool LTP3 Objective 2 Improve road safety by interventions that reduce the number of people, particularly children, killed and seriously injured on Blackpool s roads Town Centre Strategy Improve the quality of buildings, streets and spaces and their maintenance and management DfT Local Transport White Paper: Encourage the wider objectives of transport Sub-Regional Transport Framework To provide all sections of the community with safe and convenient access to the services, jobs, health, leisure and educational opportunities that they need. To improve the accessibility, availability and affordability of transport as a contribution to the development of strong and cohesive communities. Blackpool LTP3 Objective 6 Improve access to healthcare, education, employment, shops, social/leisure opportunities and resort attractions, particularly by sustainable modes Town Centre Strategy Provide convenient access to the Town Centre by all modes of travel and enable easier pedestrian movement Sub-Regional Transport Framework To provide Value for Money by prioritising the maintenance and improvement of Lancashire s existing transport infrastructure where it can help to deliver the transport goals. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

44 3.4.4 The success of the scheme will be demonstrated through the realisation of benefits associated with each objective. This will be shown through the work undertaken as part of the Monitoring and Evaluation process. At a high-level, the scope of the benefits that are expected as a result of the scheme are: Improved public transport journeys An increased number of public transport trips Neutral impacts on local air quality Enhanced connectivity between local people and employment opportunities 3.5 Proposals / Option Assessment Report Option Generation and Selection Process A broad option generation and selection process was undertaken as part of the Fylde Coast Transport Study in 2011/ The Preferred Option was identified in the Phase 1 Fylde Coast Transport Study which ranked tram and rail integration options based on the scheme objectives The key aim of the Fylde Coast Transport Study was to assess: the potential for developing the sub-regional train and tram networks to provide an integrated fixed track public transport network which improves accessibility and connectivity using trams, tram-train technology and heavy rail where appropriate. Improved access between the South Fylde line and central Blackpool, improved public transport accessibility to the airport and improved connectivity between the promenade tramway and Talbot Gateway are key aims in the short to medium term Therefore, a long list of options to improve the tram and rail public transport systems in the Fylde Coast was compiled by drawing upon recommendations from previous studies and input from the SINTROPHER Reference Group (encompassing representatives from Blackpool, Fylde, Wyre and Lancashire councils and Blackpool Transport Services) An initial sift identified those options that were plausible in terms of engineering feasibility and potential cost. Secondly, a preliminary analysis of the potential passenger catchments identified those options where a reasonable level of demand could be expected. This process included primary data collection on the geographic distribution of potential passengers in the study area All remaining options were then tested against the scheme objectives as set out in section 3.4 of this document The conclusion of the process was that an extension of the tramway to Blackpool North rail station met the objectives more strongly than the other remaining options because it was more closely aligned to existing travel demand and regeneration schemes A number of technically feasible options were developed during the Fylde Coast Transport Study. Development of the CBD and corresponding Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

45 changes to the highways and traffic management system mean that the Preferred Option at OBC had evolved from a terminus on High Street to a terminus parallel to Talbot Road with potential for further refinement due to the opportunity presented by the proposed redevelopment of the Wilkinson s site. This opportunity has been realised and the FBC scheme is integrated with the ongoing redevelopment of the CBD area. The final scheme design includes better pedestrian access between the proposed tram terminus and Blackpool North Station. Preferred Option Specification, Location and Alignment The Blackpool North Tramway extension comprises a 550m twin track extension of the tramway from the Promenade, in a north easterly direction through Talbot Square and along Talbot Road terminating on a new tram stop to be situated as indicated in Figure Figure 3.11 Preferred Option for Tram Extension to Blackpool North Rail Station Source: TWAO Public Consultation Document from The junction between the existing tramway and the extension will be formed using a full delta junction that enables movements in all directions The new track will comprise an on-street track slab with embedded grooved rail enabling a flush surface to be created. Its construction will be similar to that already employed on the Blackpool tramway To accommodate the new tramway alignment, the current traffic arrangement along Talbot Road must be amended. Eastbound traffic between Talbot Square and Abingdon Street will be removed, with traffic rerouted via Clifton Street and Abingdon Street; the existing restrictions between Abingdon Street and Dickson Road/Topping Street will remain. Westbound traffic movements will remain unchanged To accommodate the new tramway alignment, new signalled junctions will be introduced at Promenade/Talbot Square, and at Talbot Road s intersections with Dickson Road/Topping Street and Cookson Street To separate tram and traffic movements at the Delta junction the recently remodelled Talbot Square will need to be reconfigured. The carriageway will be relocated such that it is adjacent to the Ibis Hotel; the tramway will lie immediately to the north of this with an area of public realm created between the tramway and the Counting House public house. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

46 The North Pier stop will remain unaltered with separate side platforms for northbound and southbound directions located to the north and south of Talbot Square respectively. A new eastbound only stop (Talbot Square) will be created to allow passengers to board/alight the trams travelling onwards to North Station The terminus at Blackpool North Station will comprise two side platforms that are preceded by a facing scissors crossover which enables trams to be routed into / out of either platform. Whilst it may be possible to operate the proposed service platform from a single platform face this layout provides the necessary redundancy that is capable of coping with service perturbations or the ability to store a broken down tram until such time as it can be recovered. Depending on the implemented timetable solution it is possible that services heading south towards Starr Gate and serviced heading north to Fleetwood could be operated from separate platforms to provide simple legibility to passengers The new stops will be similar in form and facilities to those that exist on the existing tramway The initial technical design for the tramway extension has retained access and servicing facilities along Talbot Road for the observed key properties such as public houses that have barrel drops. An access and servicing study was undertaken in advance of making a TWAO submission to confirm all other requirements, however, significant issues were not uncovered As with the existing tramway, the trams operating on the extension will be powered via an overhead line equipment (OLE) system. The OLE comprises an electrified contact wire located above the alignment of the tracks, with the power conveyed to the vehicle via a pantograph. The contact wire will generally be supported using discrete poles, as with the original tramway that ran along Talbot Road. The use of span wires to buildings using structural fixings will be investigated further as the scheme is developed, to aid with reducing street clutter. The traction power voltage is nominally 650 V DC. Generating Alternative Options Consideration has been given to other ways of achieving integration between the tram and rail services in the Fylde Coast, including a comprehensive qualitative and quantitative assessment of options to link the tramway and both the North and South Fylde rail lines in different configurations (including tram extensions and tram-train). The Fylde Coast Transport Study confirmed that an extension to Blackpool North station was the best performing option against the objectives and in a preliminary quantitative economic assessment Consideration has also been given to other ways of achieving integration between the tram and rail services at Blackpool North Station. This included bus services, pedestrian facilities and urban realm improvements to enhance the walking experience around the station and to tram services. It also included the tramway extension option from the 2012 SOBC, which reduced the frequency of through trams (on the existing line) whilst diverting some trams to Blackpool North station. This option although beneficial was noted to have some risks around the disbenefit caused to existing through passengers and has hence been refined into the current Preferred Option, Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

47 which removes this disbenefit. This option was further analysed as the lower cost alternative comparator in the OBC In this FBC, a further refinement has been made to the lower cost alternative comparator, taking account of the advance order that has been made for the additional trams. In this context, the previous comparator was no longer rational, and instead, an option has been developed to deliver additional tram frequency on the existing route with the new vehicles but no additional infrastructure to Blackpool North station. Although this option makes only limited contribution to meeting the scheme objectives, it is considered the most credible lower cost alternative at this point in time. Bus Service Option Consideration was given to providing a shuttle bus between Blackpool North and the tramway. However, such an option would introduce an additional journey leg and an additional interchange both of which would make the service unattractive to passengers to whom it would be difficult to justify levying a passenger fare. Therefore, whilst a shuttle bus option would avoid the upfront capital costs of the tram extension scheme, it would have significant disadvantages in terms of the ongoing pressures on revenue budgets through its operating cost (with little possibility of enough/any fare income to make it revenue positive). This option was therefore rejected Adjustments to existing bus routes were considered, such as altering an existing service from the promenade to Blackpool North. Whilst this could be attractive for rail users, it would result in a disbenefit to existing bus passengers who would experience a diverted service, increased journey times and increased unreliability due to running in congested traffic. Furthermore, passengers would most likely complete their journeys by bus placing these services more directly in competition with existing tram services. Similar issues would arise with providing an additional bus route, with the further consideration that competition with existing services as well tram services would be unlikely to generate sufficient fare revenue A bus option would meet some of the scheme objectives to a limited extent, but would not meet all of the objectives For the above reasons there is not considered to be a credible bus based alternative to the Preferred Option. Urban Realm Improvements At the time of the Fylde Coast Transport Study, the most credible Lower Cost Alternative option included improvements to the public realm and pedestrian facilities along Talbot Road, which would make the walking interchange between rail and tram a more attractive and legible prospect. This type of improvement is now part of the Town Centre Quality Corridors scheme promoted by Blackpool Council and is therefore effectively part of the Do- Minimum scenario. Although the Town Centre Quality Corridors scheme will represent a material improvement to the current urban realm, its impact on the connection between tram and rail services was assessed at the time of the 2012 Business Case to be modest: although it would produce some improvements to the journey quality, it would not materially improve Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

48 connectivity, and hence would only produce a modest contribution to achieving the scheme objectives. Superseded OBC Lower Cost Alternative The Preferred Option evolved from a previous option which was operable within the existing tram fleet but that introduced a significant disbenefit to existing through passengers travelling along the Promenade through the North Pier tram stop. This is because the existing 6 tram per hour through service becomes a 3 per hour through service with 3 trams per hour diverted to Blackpool North. In simple terms every other tram would require an interchange or significant diversion for passengers through Talbot Square The original SOBC option would have delivered similar benefits in terms of rail and tram integration, with the downside of the disbenefit introduced to existing tram passengers. The SOBC option was developed when the tramway upgrade programme was still underway, so eventual patronage was uncertain. The success of the upgraded tramway means patronage is higher than was forecast and many trams are full. The enhanced level of service provided in the updated Preferred Option along the busiest parts of the tramway (Pleasure Beach to Bispham) delivers additional benefit The SOBC option had the same infrastructure as the Preferred Option, but was deliverable without the purchase of two additional trams and was used as a comparator case. However, the fact that an order for the additional trams has been made renders this option redundant. FBC Lower Cost Alternative For the purposes of this FBC an option which utilises the additional trams has been developed to provide additional frequency on the existing tramway but without the new infrastructure improving connectivity to Blackpool North station. The option increases frequency to 8 trams per hour during the periods of high demand. This option represents a commercially rational alternative if the full scheme did not go ahead, but makes a limited contribution to meeting the scheme objectives, providing benefit only between existing tram-served locations. Assessment of Options The Preferred Option outperforms the Lower Cost Alternative in terms of transport benefits in a number of ways: The Lower Cost Alternative does not provide improved connectivity to and integration with rail services at Blackpool North rail station. The Lower Cost Alternative does not provide improved accessibility within Blackpool, apart from along the seafront An assessment of the performance of the Preferred Option and Lower Cost Alternative against the scheme objectives is shown in Table Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

49 Table 3.10: Comparison of Options to Objectives Scheme Objective Maximise growth of the Fylde Coast economy by enhancing accessibility and connectivity to key destinations within and outwith the sub-region. Assessment Preferred Option: Will deliver passenger and economy benefits by improving accessibility and connectivity both within Blackpool, and to the wider subregion for commuters and for visitors accessing the resort. Support and facilitate the sustainable growth of the Fylde Coast sub-region by complementing and, where possible, enhancing current development and regeneration proposals. Reduce transport s emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases by contributing to wider carbon reduction and mode shift policies for the authorities making up the Fylde Coast subregion. Promote quality of life through a safe and healthy built and natural environment. Lower Cost Alternative Option: Will contribute little compared to the Preferred Option because does not provide improved accessibility and connectivity to rail services at Blackpool North or to the town centre. Will deliver some accessibility and connectivity benefits along the seafront only. Preferred Option: Will facilitate urban realm enhancements in the town centre as well as improving access for employers in Blackpool to a larger labour pool. Improves the connectivity between the economically important seafront and the redeveloping town centre. Lower Cost Alternative Option: Will contribute little compared to the Preferred Option because no improved accessibility and connectivity to the town centre. Will deliver improved connectivity between economically important opportunities north and south of North Pier. Preferred Option: Will make a modest contribution to wider carbon reduction and mode shift because opportunities to use public transport are improved for all. Lower Cost Alternative Option: Will make a modest contribution to wider carbon reduction and mode shift because opportunities to use public transport on the seafront are improved. Preferred Option: Will make a modest contribution to a safe and healthy built environment because opportunities to use public transport and the public realm are improved for all. Contribute to enhanced quality of life by improving access for all to jobs and services. Lower Cost Alternative Option: Will make somewhat less of a contribution than the Preferred Option because there are no public realm improvements. Preferred Option: Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

50 Scheme Objective Ensure affordability, deliverability and Value for Money of the proposed scheme taking account of current Government guidance. Assessment Will contribute to enhanced quality of life by improving access to jobs and services within Blackpool and the wider sub-region. Lower Cost Alternative Option: Will contribute little compared to the Preferred Option because does not provide improved access to jobs and services, except between seafront locations. Preferred Option: Represents high value for money to the public sector, is affordable within the context of the Blackpool Council and Lancashire LEP budgets for transport, and is a deliverable scheme. Lower Cost Alternative Option: Represents high value for money to the public sector in terms of benefits delivered and cost. However, delivers materially less against the scheme objectives, and therefore is judged to represent lower value for money to the public sector in that context The Preferred Option outperforms the Lower Cost Alternative against all scheme objectives. The Lower Cost Alternative is included in this business case for comparative purposes and represents a credible alternative within the context of the advance tram purchase. The Lower Cost Alternative offers high value for money when only costs and monetised benefits are considered. However, the Lower Cost Alternative delivers materially less against the scheme objectives, and therefore should be judged to represent lower value for money to the public sector in that context. 3.6 Strategic Fit This section provides an overview of all the relevant local, regional and national policies applicable to the scheme. The policies reviewed are those relevant for the scheme and cover economy, land use and transport. Assessment against Local and Regional Policy, Strategy and Objectives Local Level Policies Core Strategy The Blackpool Core Strategy is a key part of the local planning framework. It has been subject to examination and found sound by the Planning Inspectorate, providing a number of modifications are made. It was adopted in January The Core Strategy outlines the spatial vision for Blackpool, underpinned by four main goals: Sustainable regeneration, diversification and growth Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

51 Strengthen community wellbeing to create sustainable communities and reduce inequalities in Blackpool s most deprived areas Regeneration of the Town Centre, resort core and inner areas to address economic, social and physical decline Supporting growth and enhancement in South Blackpool to meet future housing and employment needs for Blackpool and the Fylde Coast Cross-cutting all of the goals is the principle of sustainable development, which has economic, social and environmental dimensions. Transport has a valuable role in supporting the three types of sustainable development in Blackpool The Preferred Option will contribute to realising development goals for Blackpool by contributing to sustainable access to regeneration areas and employment opportunities The Lower Cost Alternative will not contribute because it provides limited improved accessibility and no improvement to connectivity. Policy CS1: Strategic Location of Development Blackpool s future strategic development is focussed on inner area regeneration such as the Town Centre, Resort Core (Promenade and major attractions including major points of arrival) and neighbourhoods within the inner areas. Here, the outlook is for future economic growth, development and investment to promote it as a first choice retail, tourist and business destination for Fylde Coast residents The Preferred Option will provide enhanced connectivity between areas within the Town Centre and Resort Core, setting the foundation for focussed future economic growth and development The Lower Cost Alternative will not contribute because it provides no improved accessibility or connectivity to the Town Centre. Policy CS2: Housing Provision, Policy CS3: Economic Development and Employment, Policy CS4: Retail and Other Town Centre Uses Between 2012 and 2027, Blackpool requires 4,200 new homes. Sites will be allocated in the Site Allocations and Development Management Policies document. These sites are likely to include major regeneration sites in inner areas and the Resort Core, including the seafront A local Growth Accelerator Strategy for the Fylde Coast is being developed to co-ordinate future development of the sub-region. There is limited land for new development within Blackpool therefore main employment sites currently in Blackpool must be safeguarded or improved An example of this is the Town Centre which needs increased quality office space to attract investment. Talbot Gateway (The Central Business District) has been identified as critical to delivering this type of space which is within walking distance of Blackpool North Station. Investment here will support sustainable employment growth and revitalise the Town Centre through encouraging future inward investment. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

52 It is acknowledged that the town centre s retail offer does not provide the quality and range that is necessary to reflect its sub-regional role. There is a need to enhance the vitality and viability of the town centre. The Preferred Option would connect housing to employment opportunities and quality retail. It also provides improved joined-up public transport networks across Blackpool and the wider Fylde Coast area. This will support sustainable economic growth through encouraging developments and retail to locate in the heart of the town The Lower Cost Alternative will not contribute because it provides limited improved accessibility and no improvement to connectivity. Policy CS17: Blackpool Town Centre, Policy CS18: Winter Gardens, CS19: Central Business District (Talbot Gateway) and Policy CS20: Leisure Quarter The focus of Blackpool s regeneration is within the Town Centre, Resort Core and inner areas. The Core Strategy amends the town centre boundary to include the Winter Gardens, Talbot Gateway and Leisure Quarter. The premise of this is to strengthen the area as a viable location for economic growth as well as integrating the Town Centre as a unified area The success of the Town Centre is dependent upon improved connectivity including a cohesive pedestrian layout and enhancing movements between the Town Centre and seafront. The Preferred Option support these aims. The Lower Cost Alternative makes no contribution. Policy CS24: South Blackpool Employment Growth, Policy CS25: South Blackpool Housing Growth and CS27: South Blackpool Transport and Connectivity South Blackpool has a key role in delivering the core vision for Blackpool. The area of South Blackpool is important to meeting the future growth needs of all Blackpool residents South Blackpool has the potential for development and provides sustainable opportunities for housing and employment development particularly on the Blackpool/ Fylde boundary Ensuring continuous, quality connections between the South Blackpool area and the northern, central areas such as with the Preferred Option, will support the attractiveness of the southern areas of Blackpool to developers and will maintain connections between jobs and residents wherever they are located within Blackpool as a whole. It will also promote sustainable travel, reducing the need for cars and supporting strategic connections to the airport The Lower Cost Alternative will not contribute because it provides limited improved accessibility and no improvement to connectivity. Policy CS5: Connectivity The Preferred Option supports Policy CS5 of the Core Strategy, which seeks a sustainable high quality transport network for Blackpool and a quality arrival experience. The policy refers to measures include providing a new tram link from the Promenade to Blackpool North Station and improving Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

53 interchange between transport modes by providing improved high quality infrastructure including buildings, facilities and public realm, making transport interchange easy and convenient for all users The Lower Cost Alternative will not contribute because it provides limited improved accessibility and no improvement to connectivity. Blackpool Local Transport Plan Strategy Blackpool s transport policy and plans are published in Blackpool s Local Transport Plan (LTP) to 2016, which as statutory policy is of primary importance when considering a transport intervention. The LTP is driven by six strategic objectives, which are as follows: Objective 1 Improve, maintain and make best use of Blackpool s transport network; in particular its roads, footways and bridges Objective 2 Improve road safety by interventions that reduce the number of people, particularly children, killed and seriously injured on Blackpool s roads Objective 3 Manage congestion levels on Blackpool s roads, especially where it impacts on local economic performance Objective 4 Improve transport to and within the resort, particularly by more sustainable modes, to enhance the visitor experience and support the local economy Objective 5 Improve the efficiency and management of parking to support the local economy, especially for shoppers and visitors Objective 6 Improve access to healthcare, education, employment, shops, social/leisure opportunities and resort attractions, particularly by sustainable modes The LTP mentions this scheme (paragraph 3.86), stating The Council would like to construct a link to North Station (estimated to cost in the region of 15m) but there is no funding for this at present The Preferred Option aligns to the objectives of the LTP3, providing sustainable connectivity which will support the future outlook for the town. The Lower Cost Alternative will not contribute because it provides limited improved accessibility and no improvement to connectivity. Town Centre Strategy, March The Town Centre Strategy has been developed to align to the LTP and Core Strategy. The Strategy outlines a Vision for Blackpool which is supported by six objectives: Re-establish the Town Centre as the first choice shopping destination for Fylde Coast residents Strengthen the Town Centre as a vibrant leisure, entertainment, cultural and business tourism destination for residents and visitors Grow the Town Centre as a place to do business by creating a Central Business District and creative industries hub Create a choice of high quality homes within and around the Town Centre Improve the quality of buildings, streets and spaces and their maintenance and management Provide convenient access to the Town Centre by all modes of travel and enable easier pedestrian movement Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

54 Achieving the last objective means, amongst other transport factors, improving the highway network and pedestrian facilities particularly in the Central Business District, strengthening connections to the seafront and integrating the tramway with other modes The tramway is considered an important factor in the future success of the redevelopment of the Town Centre as it is a sustainable mode of transport for all users into the Town Centre. The Preferred Option supports the aims of the Town Centre Strategy by enhancing connections to the seafront and aligning to multi-modal interchange for users. The Lower Cost Alternative will not contribute because it provides limited improved accessibility and no improvement to connectivity Regional Level Policies Since the preparation of the 2012 business case, Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) have been established. The LEPs have developed as geographically appropriate bodies who decide priorities for investment in roads, buildings and facilities in their area Blackpool is located within the Lancashire LEP. Each LEP has its own Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) which identifies the key investment priorities for its area. The Lancashire LEP SEP was produced in March One of the SEP priorities is the development of a renewal strategy for Blackpool to sustain the growth to the visitor economy and address severe local housing market challenges Ensuring that the visitor economy is strengthened is critical to the renewal of the town. A focus on the unique characterises of the town to create economic opportunities for local residents is a key priority for the LEP The renewal of Blackpool is driven by seven initiatives. Amongst these are Town Centre transport interventions, specifically the Blackpool Tramway Extension and North Station/Talbot Gateway Transport Interchange and the need to create a positive sense of arrival/departure The Tramway extension is seen to be a benefit, complementing the recent Tramway refurbishment and integrating with the Talbot Gateway area, improving public transport for visitors and residents. Further, it will promote seamless interchange to heavy rail, extending the connectivity to Blackpool to and from the sub-region. Assessment against Wider Policy, Strategy and Objectives DfT Local Transport White Paper: Creating Growth, Cutting Carbon: Making Sustainable Local Transport Happen (2011) The White Paper s vision follows along the lines of the previous policy, stating it is for a transport system that is an engine for economic growth, but one that is also greener and safer and improves quality of life in our communities. Particular emphasis is placed on the role of local communities in enabling people to make more sustainable travel choices through the use 18 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

55 of low cost, high value nudge measures and local delivery mechanism. It notes the steps taken to decentralise spending powers through the LEPs The key objectives identified by the White Paper are to encourage economic growth, reduce carbon emissions and encourage the wider objectives of transport (such as more physical activity, improved road safety and air quality). The Preferred Option aligns strongly with these objectives as the scheme will offer journey time savings promote sustainable transport, and the scheme will offer journey time savings economic growth in the town The Lower Cost Alternative will not contribute because it provides limited improved accessibility and no improvement to connectivity. DfT Door to Door: A strategy for Improving Sustainable Transport Integration (2013) This strategy focuses on reducing the complexities of travel and encourages the use of active modes and public transport across the entire door to door journey. It is also about reducing carbon from transport The strategy builds upon the work of the 2011 White Paper which indicated that public transport needed to be an attractive alternative to car travel. Improving the end to end journey is the way to make this a viable solution There are four areas detailed which are the focus to encourage the choice of sustainable travel: Accurate, accessible and reliable information about the different transport options for their journeys Convenient and affordable tickets, for an entire journey Regular and straightforward connections at all stages of the journey and between different modes of transport Safe, comfortable transport facilities The Preferred Option contributes to improving travel connections in Blackpool. Improved interchange through reduced perception of interchange time is one of the aspects of the strategy which is noted as offering confidence to travellers. The Lower Cost Alternative will not contribute because it provides limited improved accessibility and no improvement to connectivity Delivering a high quality environment for cyclists and pedestrians is also important. The Preferred Option will also make positive contributions to the active modes facilities in Blackpool as well as providing the catalyst for future economic development in the town, another priority of the strategy. SINTROPHER Initiative The overarching framework within which the Preferred Option was originally planned is the SINTROPHER initiative. The aim of SINTROPHER is to assess and promote development of new or improved tram services, linked to National Rail systems (and, where relevant, regional airports) as one way to improve access into and out of EU regions which are disadvantaged by reason of being geographically peripheral within the context of North West Europe. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

56 The outcome is to deliver the necessary capacity, efficiency, affordability and accessibility, together with the behavioural change, to encourage a modal shift towards sustainable modes of transport The Preferred Option was developed in consultation with the SINTROPHER Reference Group and is aligned with the overall goals of the SINTROPHER project The Lower Cost Alternative will not contribute because it provides limited improved accessibility and no improvement to connectivity. Summary of Fit The Red Amber Green (RAG) assessment below summarises the strategic fit of the Preferred Option with key national, regional and local policy documents The Preferred option is well aligned to policy objectives regarding external connectivity and connectivity to the central area. The Lower Cost Alternative would make only a limited contribution to policy objectives. Table 3.11: Alignment of Scheme to Local, Regional and National Policies Policy Key Extracts Strategic Fit National Policy DfT Local Transport White Paper Encourage economic growth Reduce carbon emissions DfT Door to Door SINTROPHER Initiative Sub National Policy Strategic Economic Plan Local Policy Core Strategy Blackpool LTP Encourage the wider objectives of transport Encourage the use of active modes and public transport across the entire door to door journey. Reducing carbon from transport. Assess and promote development of new or improved tram services, linked to National Rail systems Encourage a modal shift towards sustainable modes of transport The development of a renewal strategy for Blackpool to sustain the growth to the visitor economy Sustainable development: Economic, social and environmental Objective 1 Improve, maintain and make best use of Blackpool s transport network; in particular its roads, footways and bridges Objective 2 Improve road safety by interventions that reduce the number of people, particularly children, killed and seriously injured on Blackpool s roads Objective 3 Manage congestion levels on Blackpool s roads, especially where it impacts on local economic performance Objective 4 Improve transport to and within the resort, particularly by more sustainable modes, to enhance the visitor experience and support the local economy Objective 5 Improve the efficiency and management of parking to support the local economy, especially for shoppers and visitors Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

57 Policy Key Extracts Strategic Fit Objective 6 Improve access to healthcare, education, employment, shops, social/leisure opportunities and resort attractions, Town Centre Strategy Strategic Fit with Scheme Strong strategic fit with policy Neutral / minimal strategic fit with policy Negative strategic fit with policy 3.7 Political Support particularly by sustainable modes Re-establish the Town Centre as the first choice shopping destination for Fylde Coast residents Strengthen the Town Centre as a vibrant leisure, entertainment, cultural and business tourism destination for residents and visitors Grow the Town Centre as a place to do business by creating a Central Business District and creative industries hub Create a choice of high quality homes within and around the Town Centre Improve the quality of buildings, streets and spaces and their maintenance and management Provide convenient access to the Town Centre by all modes of travel and enable easier pedestrian movement In advance of submitting the TWAO application in July 2016, as required by section 239 of the Local Government Act, a Full Blackpool Council meeting was held on 29 June to approve the making of a TWAO application to authorise the tramway extension. A vote was recorded of 26 in favour, 11 against and 1 abstention. On 23 November 2016, a Full Blackpool Council meeting confirmed the resolution to promote the TWAO application made to authorise the tramway extension (also required by section 239 of the Local Government Act) Further information about political support can be found in Chapter Stakeholders Introduction The proposed scheme to extend the tramway from North Pier to North Station will create a new alignment and infrastructure. The proposed route along an existing highway, with proposed changes to the highway, and through a residential and business district will affect a wide range of individuals, groups and companies, identified as stakeholders This section details the approaches past and future, to engage with stakeholders relevant to the scheme. Historical Engagement SINTROPHER Reference Group Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

58 3.8.3 In 2012, general consultation was undertaken with main stakeholders through the SINTROPHER Reference Group which included: representatives from Blackpool, Fylde, Wyre and Lancashire councils; Blackpool Transport; Network Rail; Northern Rail; and independent industry experts. Business consultation on the expected wider economic effect of the scheme was undertaken between January and March 2012 and involved 23 telephone interviews with key local businesses and stakeholders The SINTROPHER Reference Group met throughout the Fylde Coast Transport Study. During Phase 1 of the study different transport options were generated and assessments of the fit of each option with the study objectives were presented to the group for discussion and feedback. During Phase 2 a smaller number of options were developed greater detail and outline business cases presented to the group for discussion and feedback. The tram extension to Blackpool North was adopted by the reference group as its preferred option and recommended for urgent and immediate development The consultation on the expected wider economic effect of the scheme took place between January and March, At this stage, no final preferred option had been chosen, so consultees were informed of the preferred options of an extension to Blackpool North Station, or to St Annes along the South Fylde Line The interviewees were identified by Blackpool Council, and on occasion, recommended by other stakeholders. Details of the stakeholders contacted are included in the Business and Economic Analysis report. Interviewees were informed about the SINTROPHER project and the preferred tram options, and were asked a series of background questions regarding key issues for the local economy and to what extent transport is an issue. Finally, they were asked for their opinions on the proposed preferred tram extensions. DfT Engagement The DfT has been consulted by representatives from the SINTROPHER Reference Group throughout the Fylde Coast Transport Study. Wider SINTROPHER meetings were attended by a tram-train expert from within DfT. Informal discussions with DfT on the proposed extension have taken place at progress meetings on the existing tramway extension. Public Consultation Households in Blackpool received information on the proposed scheme in the YourBlackpool publication in March 2012, and were invited to fill in an online questionnaire or write/ their views to Blackpool Council. It was stressed that the proposals were intended to be integrated within the redevelopment of the Town Centre and could include some or all of the following: Improved information and signing Integrated tram and rail ticketing Extension of the tramway to Blackpool North on Talbot Road Direct interchange between tram and rail services Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

59 3.8.9 The consultation drew 49 responses to the online survey and a number of s/letters giving more detailed views. Respondents were generally in favour of connecting tram services to Blackpool North Station. However, concerns were raised about the disruption during the construction phase and impacts on congestion in the Town Centre. Another concern expressed by a small number of respondents was that a connection to Blackpool North Station should not preclude further development of rail services on the South Fylde Line. Contemporary Stakeholder Engagement As part of the progression of the scheme at OBC level, Blackpool Council set out a process for stakeholder engagement to promote dialogue regarding issues related to the project between the Promoters and stakeholders to encourage continued involvement and support for the scheme. Two documents: The Stakeholder Management Plan and Communications Strategy were developed as part of the stakeholder engagement work The Stakeholder Management Plan describes the strategy to make available information that stakeholders require in order to understand and contribute to the project to extend the Blackpool Tramway through the various phases of project development including the application for a Transport and Works Act Order. The strategy identifies procedures and practices to enable a twoway flow of information that is transparent and accountable The Communication Strategy for the Tramway Extension identifies the key stakeholders and the process of communication, to support the Stakeholder Management Plan The results of engagement with key stakeholders in 2015 can be summarised as: Network Rail: No major issues raised but further discussion required with the Network Rail signalling and electrification teams to identify possible issues. Office of Rail Regulation: No EMC issues, no issues on proposed location of the terminus Rail Operators (Virgin Trains First Group and Northern Rail): Operators did not see any disbenefit with the scheme and happy for it to go ahead Sainsbury s: Did not see that there would be a need for Sainsbury s to object to the proposals A report summarising the consultation undertaken for the project to date was produced as part of the TWAO application process (Doc Ref. A5). The following is an overview of the stakeholder engagement from that report: Dissemination of Information The consultation process for the TWAO included meetings, briefings, presentations, exhibitions and notifications. The brochure and the posters placed in the trams and around the town outlined the proposals, the benefits of the scheme and the proposed timescales A description of the scheme was included in the Your Blackpool newspaper, which is circulated to every one of the 70,000 properties in the borough of Blackpool. In excess of 1,500 brochures were distributed, and posters Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

60 outlining the proposals were placed in the trams and at tram stops and bus stops across the town. Form of Response Responses to the tramway extension consultation were received in a number of ways and forms including questions and discussion from direct meetings, questions from presentations to groups, communication exchange with for example the environmental consultation, risk workshops with for example Network Rail, feedback forms provided during exhibitions, and individual letters, s and telephone calls received from the general public and organisations. Statutory Consultees Through the consultation with the statutory consultees, including the Highway Authority, Historic England, Transport Focus, the Office of Rail and Road, Environment Agency and the various utility companies, no major concerns or objections were raised. A utility working group is established to coordinate with the relevant utility companies. Response Received In total, 135 responses to the scheme were made with 81 in support of the scheme, 46 objections (a significant number of these from the Taxi Drivers Association) and 8 on unrelated matters. The overall majority of responses were in support of the scheme. Some concerns were raised through the consultation process. For example, the potential effect of the trams in heritage buildings. In response, the track and foundations will minimise noise and vibration, operating trams speeds will be limited on Talbot Road and rerouting of traffic as part of the scheme will reduce the effects of any vibrations on the Sacred Heart Church. Transport and Works Act Order Stakeholder Engagement The TWAO application was submitted to the Secretary of State on 13 June A six-week statutory consultation period followed the application, during which only a small number of objections to the scheme were received (10), with two representations and 26 letters in support of the scheme (see Appendix I). Six of the objections were withdrawn on provision of further information from the promoter. Of the four objections which remained, none were statutory objectors on which basis the Department for Transport confirmed that it would not be necessary to hold a public inquiry. The written representation process concluded in December 2016, at which time only two objections remained. 3.9 Internal or External Business Drivers This section reviews internal and external business drivers. These are elements relating to improved technologies, new business or services brought about as a result of policy which drive the need for the scheme. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

61 Internal Blackpool s economic performance over recent years has been poor compared to local areas such as Fylde and Lancashire, and compared to the country as a whole. A lack of long-term investment has meant that Blackpool has not attracted jobs and businesses, and the competitiveness of the tourist offer has declined in comparison to other destinations abroad and in the UK The recent tramway upgrade has been successful, with patronage growing beyond forecast in Currently, BTS are employing two conductors per tram in busy periods to try to ensure all revenue is captured. Additional service provision from both the extension and the additional service levels on the Promenade will allow further patronage growth and associated revenue capture. External Connectivity between Blackpool and London is important for the town. Virgin West Coast operated a direct daily service to and from London in January 2015 but the southbound services were suspended with the electrification works underway. It should be reinstated sometime in In August 2015, approval was given for six additional London trains per day from 2018 run by open access operator Grand Central. Grand Central could not source suitable rolling stock and the access rights lapsed. They plan to reapply in the near future The electrification of the North Fylde (railway) Line is also an important factor in the quality of the services being provided to and from Blackpool. Electrification would bring forward better trains and faster services between Blackpool, Liverpool, Manchester and Yorkshire stations, as well as an enhanced customer experience. Network Rail proposed electrification to reach Blackpool by May Synergy The Talbot Gateway Central Business District (CBD) is a mixed-use regeneration scheme intended to transform the heart of Blackpool. The CBD comprises a range of new office, retail and leisure space as well as transport and urban realm enhancements. It is a major scheme to regenerate the Town Centre and bring it back as a key destination for shopping within the Fylde Coast area The tramway extension has strong synergy with the CBD development. The extension will help improve the sense of arrival at the Station by contributing to enhancements near to the station entrance which the Talbot Gateway outlines Further, the scheme will enhance the attractiveness of this area of the town to businesses which may locate in the CBD. The scheme will also contribute to enlarging the labour catchment available to any new businesses through more competitive public transport journey times than are currently available Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

62 Additionally, the accessibility of any employment opportunities in the CBD will be similarly improved The scheme will also have a positive synergy with Town Centre Quality Corridors planned for Talbot Road, Dickson Road, Church Street, Cookson Street, Caunce Street, Edward Street and Deansgate. The extension will complement the Town Centre Quality Corridors scheme, improving visual amenity in the area and giving prominence to sustainable travel for local people into the central areas of the town. The Impact of Not Implementing an Intervention If an intervention is not implemented then there will be no contribution to meeting the scheme objectives on sustainable economic growth, access to jobs and services, development and regeneration, built and natural environment, and quality of life. Given that the Preferred Option makes a strong contribution to meeting the objectives overall (as summarised earlier in Table 3.10), then not implementing it would represent a missed opportunity to continue the revitalisation of Blackpool Without an intervention, Blackpool s relative attractiveness for the leisure and service economy, and also as a place of residence serving the diverse employment opportunities located at rail served destinations (such as Preston and Manchester) will remain lower than its competitors in the region There will also be increasing pressure on tram capacity during peak periods, potentially limiting growth in the use of the tram for all trip purposes but particularly for tourists. This could reduce the relative attractiveness of Blackpool as a tourist destination and constrain growth in local GVA The redevelopment of the area around Blackpool North station and the Wilkinson s site has been designed to accommodate and be integrated with the tramway extension. The disruption due to works will be increased if the tramway extension is not taken forward contemporaneously Conclusion The Strategic Case for the scheme is very strong: The Need for Intervention is clear: three key types of movement which are important to the economy of Blackpool and the wider Lancashire region are currently constrained by the lack of integration between the rail and tram systems. o Inward movement of tourists to Blackpool from regional and national origins o The two-way movement of local residents between the North West o and Blackpool for work and leisure and services The internal movement of people between jobs and services and residential areas within Blackpool Improving the integration by extending the tramway to Blackpool North Station will enable and contribute to an increase in economic growth in the area. The Preferred Option was identified through a comprehensive option generation and selection process, assessed qualitatively against the scheme objectives and quantitatively against the potential economic case. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

63 The Preferred Option has been refined to respond to changes in the context of the area (including the CBD development and patronage growth on the tramway) and also to remove a disbenefit to some existing passengers that was introduced by the previously developed option. The Preferred Option is aligned with the relevant local, regional and national policy. A Lower Cost Alternative option has been developed as an appropriate comparator case. This utilises the new trams which have been purchased in advance but provides a limited improvement in accessibility on the seafront only and no improvement in connectivity to Blackpool North station or the town centre. Stakeholder support for the scheme is strong; from the public, to businesses, politicians and the relevant transport operators (Network Rail, Virgin Trains First Group and Northern Rail, and BTS). The scheme has strong synergies with other developments occurring in the area. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

64 4 The Economic Case 4.1 Introduction The Economic Case assesses options to identify all their impacts, and the resulting Value for Money, to fulfil HM Treasury s requirements for appraisal and demonstrate Value for Money in the use of taxpayers money In line with HM Treasury s appraisal requirements, the impacts considered are not limited to those directly impacting on the measured economy, nor to those which can be monetised. The economic, environmental, social and distributional impacts of a proposal are all examined, using qualitative, quantitative and monetised information. In assessing Value for Money, all of these are consolidated to determine the extent to which a proposal s benefits outweigh its costs The economic appraisal has been tailored to reflect the needs of the Full Business Case and is discussed under the following headings: Methodology Assumptions Transport Economic Efficiency Safety Benefits Environmental and Social Impacts Wider Economic Benefits Appraisal Summary Table (AST) Value for Money Statement Conclusion 4.2 Methodology The economic appraisal for the extension of the Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway to Blackpool North Station has been conducted in compliance with WebTAG This economic appraisal refers to: TAG Unit A1-1 (Nov 2014) (Cost Benefit Analysis); TAG Unit A1-2 (Jul 2017) (Scheme Costs); TAG Unit A1-3 (Mar 2017) (User and Provider Impacts); TAG Unit A 2-1 (Jan 2014) (Wider Impacts); TAG Unit A 4-2 (Dec 2015) (Distributional Impact Appraisal); and, TAG Unit A 5-4 (Jul 2017) (Marginal External Costs) The appraisal quantifies the costs and benefits of the scheme in real 2010 present value terms. In terms of benefits, these are the user impacts (journey time benefits and user charges) and the non-user impacts (specifically the marginal external costs of changes in car use), and the impact on indirect tax receipts. The costs of the scheme, including the capital (investment) cost, the operating costs, and the change in operator revenue, are also calculated. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

65 4.2.4 A Lower Cost Alternative has also been assessed, as described in the Strategic Case. Benefits A public transport assignment model has been developed to assess how the introduction of an alternative mode impacts a traveller s route/mode choice. The model has been developed in line with guidance in TAG Unit A 1-3 (User and Provider Impacts) The model represents bus and tram services in the Fylde Coast region, as well as rail services along the lines serving Blackpool North and Blackpool South stations. Walking is allowed for access, egress and interchange legs. Demand is segmented between Blackpool concessionary, other concessionary and non-concessionary passengers, to represent the difference in travel choices made between these segments 20 depending on whether tram or bus fares are required to be paid Introducing the tram extension will alter passenger demand choices due to changes in travel times and fare costs of the available public transport options. The network assignment model, built using the Cube software platform, forecasts the impact of this for example considering the trade-off between tram (typically perceived as being quicker but more expensive) and bus Analysis of tram demand during the preliminary business case showed that demand in what would usually be considered the commuting peaks in the morning and evening is not significantly higher than in the inter-peak period. This finding is different from a typical urban area and is due to the fact that a high proportion of trips are tourism or leisure related. Instead, the main variations in travel demand occur between the high tourist season (during the summer and the Illuminations) and the low tourist season (during winter). Within those periods, there is also material variation in demand between weekdays and weekend Therefore, the periods represented in the model are average weekday and weekend hours for the high season and low season. This gives a total of four model periods There are four fare stages (A to D) for bus travel in Blackpool. The fare charged is dependent on the distance travelled. This begins with stage A for short trips, and progresses to stage D for the longest trips. The tram fare stages start with stage B for journeys to adjacent stops, then increase to stage C as journey length increases, and become stage D on journeys that are longer than equivalent bus journeys. Even though bus and tram stages A-D have the same fares, their application results in fare differences between the modes, with the tram more expensive for shorter journeys, the same for mid length journeys (2-5km), cheaper for 5-9 km length journeys and the same for longer distance journeys. This is shown in Figure As of April 1 st 2014 free tram travel is not allowed for non-blackpool residents that are eligible for the English National Travel Concession Scheme. Holders of the Blackpool Concessionary Pass are able to travel for free on the tram between 09:23-23:00 Mon-Fri and anytime weekends/bank holidays. All concessionary passes are eligible for free bus travel during off-peak times. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

66 Figure 4.1 Estimated yield by fare stage (distance) and mode The model was validated to represent existing travel patterns and levels of demand. This forms the base year (2015). The base year is built on the results of passenger surveys Following validation, two future years were forecast: one to represent what was the anticipated scheme opening year (2018) at the commencement of the modelling work, and one for fifteen years beyond this year (2033). We note the actual scheme opening year is now 2019, and this is taken account of in the appraisal methodology. Demand is grown from the base year to these future years to take account of exogenous growth, forecast in the National Trip End Model (NTEM). A number of specific local effects that would be expected to increase growth were not considered and hence the model is conservative in its estimation of benefits. These are: The impact of local developments was not considered. Given the concentration of development around the tramway corridor (as shown in Figure 3.10), future development demand would therefore be expected to be concentrated on the tramway corridor and would thereby increase the base demand for the tramway extension. Specific growth in the rail market to Blackpool including the effects of electrification of the North Fylde Line and increased number of services (through e.g. open access operators) would increase the base demand for the tramway extension. In both cases this was a proportionate approach as the objective of the scheme is to link existing public transport networks, and the success of the scheme is not dependent on demand from new developments or demand from changes to the existing rail network. Such changes would improve the case for the scheme if included in the modelling and appraisal Values of time are grown in line with WebTAG. The model is public transport only. Therefore fares are assumed to rise in line with RPI, and are constant in RPI real terms for all model years. Otherwise, a rise in public transport Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

67 fares relative to change in perceived car alternative should cause demand for each to change, but is not represented in the model For each of the forecast years and model periods, scenarios with the extension and without the extension were created (the Do Something and Do Minimum respectively). The model was run for both the scenarios and outputs created. These outputs were matrices of demand, generalised journey time and fares. The generalised journey time matrices are used to calculate the user benefits of the scheme, whilst the fares matrices are used to calculate the revenue, user charges and indirect tax effects of the scheme. Additional demand is forecast by means of an elasticity-based approach, which accounts for mode shift from car and other demand responses The assignment model outputs were processed in TUBA v1.9.9, which uses the differences between the matrices for the Do Minimum and Do Something, annualises demand, applies a discount rate and values of time, to calculate the economic benefit for the full appraisal period. TUBA also outputs the impact on operator revenue, user charges and indirect tax receipts One key benefit of the scheme will be journey time improvements to users; this could be in terms of improving the connection between public transport modes allowing passengers to reach their destination quicker. The scheme will be beneficial in offering users a more direct journey, less walking time and a more integrated interchange The strategic case identifies three main movements of people which are important to the economy of Blackpool and the wider region: Inward movement of tourists to Blackpool from regional and national origins The two-way movement of local residents from between the North West and Blackpool for work, and leisure and services The internal movement of people between jobs, services and residential areas within Blackpool By extending the area served by tram, providing interchange with mainline rail services, increasing the frequency of services along the promenade and providing more capacity, the tram network will facilitate the improved journey experience of these three groups of people As is usual practice for transport modelling and appraisal, quality benefits are implicitly included in the network assignment model, where a boarding penalty of 5 minutes is applied to bus to reflect users differential quality perception of tram. This value was established through calibration to reflect the mode split between the different public transport modes and is in-line with values used elsewhere. The boarding penalty forms part of the generalised journey time and is included in the TUBA inputs. These benefits are reported as part of the journey time benefits of the scheme; it is not arithmetically possible to disaggregate the quality and journey time benefits to a useful level of precision, which in any case would not affect the BCR calculation. Analysis of the TUBA inputs suggests that, on average, quality benefits make up approximately 20% of the combined total The scheme will be on street as opposed to a segregated alignment, and is therefore anticipated to have similar reliability and performance to the bus Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

68 network. The increased frequency of tram services along the promenade is not anticipated to inhibit the current performance of the system and therefore will not result in any tangible performance disbenefit. Therefore, the scheme is assumed not to have a performance impact and is considered neutral in this regard In terms of crowding benefits the scheme could deliver a crowding benefit through adding capacity with an increased service frequency along the promenade. However, the scheme will also increase passenger numbers. On the extension along Talbot Road, crowding is not anticipated. With trams operating at 10 minute intervals in each direction, each with a tram capacity of 224 passengers, this is anticipated to be adequate provision to deal with increased passenger numbers. From data provided, it is apparent that at certain times of day in the high demand season the trams along the promenade can experience high loading levels resulting in some crowding. The scheme adds capacity to this section of the network which is anticipated to provide crowding benefits compared to the current situation. Nonetheless, such crowding benefits are not considered to be material to the case. Costs The costs being assessed as part of the scheme are the operational costs of running the extension to Blackpool North Station, the capital costs of this extension and the cost of renewals of the scheme over the appraisal period. The table below shows the costs that have been included in the appraisal. Table 4.1: Costs Cost Category Capital Costs Line Item Design, Staff and Prelims Highway Works Highway Junction Works Tram Stops Track Power and OLE Vehicles Management of Capital Works Blackpool Council Costs Operating Costs Crew costs Electricity costs Track based material costs Tram based material costs Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

69 Cost Category Maintenance Costs Line Item Plain track (24 year suggested life) Point work (24 year suggested life) Stops (21 year suggested life) Traction Power (30 year suggested life) System Equipment (30 year suggested life) Road junction signalling (21 year suggested life) Trams (30 year suggested life) Switchblade renewal (12 year suggested life) Capital costs have been developed in line with the guidance in TAG Unit A 1-2 (Scheme Costs). They are presented in this chapter in economic appraisal terms, which differ from the financial costs presented in chapter 5 in three ways: They take account of TAG guidance on risk (using the 50 th percentile of the quantified risk, as opposed to the 95 th percentile presented in the financial case). The financial costs of BBC funded preparation costs for the Full Business Case ( 511k) are not included in the economic costs, since they are sunk costs (the remaining 75k of BBC funded preparation costs are included in the economic case, as these represent the cost of Monitoring and Evaluation). Statutory undertaker costs have also been sunk The costs of SCADA are also not included in the economic costs, as the requirement to replace the existing SCADA is not a consequence of the scheme, but is included to take advantage of the synergies available for pursuing SCADA at the same time as the Extension. They are presented in market prices (i.e. the factor cost presented in the financial case plus 19% to account for indirect tax this is the Government s unit of account) The operating costs for the scheme include the increased costs associated with the uplift in crew and electricity required to operate the additional services. The costs also include the additional material costs associated with the track and tram. Marginal track and tram maintenance can be completed within existing staffing levels and therefore no additional cost is assumed for these items The capital costs for the scheme cover the construction costs, preliminaries, overheads and profits, design and statutory undertakers works. These costs are encountered within a 19 month construction period in advance of the scheme opening. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

70 Infrastructure renewal costs are considered for certain capital cost elements of the scheme. The costs include renewal of the tram fleet, tram infrastructure and highway infrastructure associated with the scheme The appraisal model combines cost and benefit inputs in order to undertake a cost-benefit appraisal, in line with TAG Unit A The discounted annual operator revenue, journey time benefits, user charges and indirect tax outputs from TUBA are used in the appraisal model. In line with WebTAG the appraisal model caps demand and revenue in 2035 (20 years from the current year), in GDP deflator real 2010 prices The tram passenger kilometres in the Do Minimum and Do Something are extracted from Cube and are used in the appraisal model to estimate marginal external cost impacts in accordance with TAG Unit A 5-4. The marginal external costs quantify the impact of changing the number of road vehicles on the wider highway network. The costs include congestion, infrastructure, accidents, local air quality, noise, greenhouse gases and indirect tax (which results from the change in spend on taxable fuel) Costs are calculated in an operating cost model and a capital cost model before being combined with the benefits in the appraisal model. The appraisal model converts all inputs into to a consistent price base (GDP deflator real 2010 prices) and discounts values over the 60 year appraisal period generating the Present Value of Costs (PVC), Present Value of Benefits (PVB) and the resultant Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) The PVB consists of the user benefits, the majority of marginal external cost impacts, and the effect of the scheme on indirect tax receipts. The PVC consists of the operating cost, capital and maintenance costs, revenue and the change in highway infrastructure spend calculated through the marginal external costs method Output tables generated in the model include the Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE) table, Public Accounts (PA) table and Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (AMCB) table. The TEE table and AMCB table are presented in the appendices to this report The flow chart below shows the assessed impacts included in the appraisal of the scheme. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

71 Figure 4.2: Assessed Impacts 4.3 Assumptions The appraisal model works in financial years. Since the period in WebTAG is calendar years, the costs and benefits have been adjusted where appropriate to take account of this. The impact of this on the results is not material. Demand and Benefit Assumptions As described in section 4.2, demand is divided into three segments in the model concessionary pass issued by Blackpool Council, other concessionary pass or no concessionary pass. This represents the difference in travel choices made between these segments depending on whether tram or bus fares required to be paid For the first two segments (concessionary pass holders), the journey purpose for all demand is assumed other (i.e. not business or commuting) for appraisal purposes. The majority of passengers eligible for the concessionary pass are beyond retirement age and are most likely to travelling within times when concessionary passes are valid, i.e. after 9.23am. They are unlikely to be commuting or travelling for business To convert from the model (average) hour to the 07:00-19:00 period, it should only be necessary to multiply the demand and benefits by 12. However, the 07:00-19:00 period does not represent a full day of demand, as some tram trips occurred before 07:00, and some after 19:00. It was assumed that early morning demand before 07:00, combined with late evening demand after 19:00, would be equivalent to an additional two average hours. Consequently, an average modelled hour was multiplied by 14 to obtain the demand and benefits for an average full day. The hour to day factor was assumed to be 14 for each time period Following surveys conducted in the study area, a locally derived journey purpose split between business, commuting and other is applied in TUBA for determining the benefits for non-concessionary pass holders. The proportion Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

72 is based on journey purpose data collected for bus, rail and tram and these proportions are then weighted by the relative demand for each. These proportions are calculated using only respondents who were not travelling on a concessionary fare therefore, when considered together, the three segments represent an appropriate overall split between business, commuting and other users. The split between user classes differs by season and between weekend and weekday. This effect is modelled to ensure seasonal differences in the composition of passenger journey purpose are captured. The table below shows the journey purpose splits applied in TUBA for each of the time periods for non-concessionary pass holders: Table 4.2:Journey purpose splits for non-concessionary pass holders Journey High Season High Season Low Season Low Season Purpose Weekday Weekend Weekday Weekend Business 4.0% 1.2% 2.6% 1.5% Commuting 31.7% 25.0% 35.1% 14.5% Other 64.3% 73.8% 62.3% 84.0% The matrices that are exported from Cube to be used in TUBA represent an average hour for each of the four modelled time periods high weekday, high weekend, low weekday and low weekend. In TUBA these matrices are annualised using the assumption that multiplying an average hour by 14 obtains the demand and benefits for an average full day, based on hours of operation of services This is then multiplied by the number of days in the year that are categorised into that time period. The calendar year 2014 was used to divide the year into time periods since it is the most recent full year observed Days of the year in 2014 were allocated based on the following categorisation: High Weekday (HWD) - Weekdays from July to the end of the Illuminations, as well as bank holidays and school holidays High Weekend (HWE) - Weekends from July to end of the Illuminations, as well as weekends parallel to bank holidays and school holidays Low Weekday (LWD) - Weekdays from the end of the Illuminations (November) through to the end of June, excluding school holidays and bank holidays Low Weekend (LWE) - Weekend days from the end of the Illuminations (November) through to the end of June, excluding weekends parallel to bank holidays and school holidays This gives the following annualisation factors: High Weekday: 127 x 14 = 1,778 High Weekend: 60 x 14 = 840 Low Weekday: 134 x 14 = 1,876 Low Weekend: 44 x 14 = 616 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

73 Appraisal Assumptions The appraisal period runs from scheme opening, assumed to be 2019/20, for 60 years until the year 2078/ Within the appraisal model, discount rates are applied in line with TAG Unit A 1-1. The table below shows the rates applied in the model. Table 4.3: Discount Rates Discount rate From To 3.5% % The forecast values of time in the model for business users are assumed to be Public Service Vehicle (Passenger) values. These forecast values of time are taken from WebTAG Unit A 1.3. Similarly values of time for commuter and others from WebTAG Unit A 1.3 are used within the model. These values of time are converted from calendar years to financial years in the appraisal model. Other trips are described as all other non-work trips e.g. for leisure in WebTAG Unit A1.3. This is the remainder of trips when journeys made as a result of employers business and commuting trips are removed. These trips form the majority of public transport demand in Blackpool These values of time are used in both the appraisal model and TUBA Marginal External Costs (MECs) quantify the change in costs associated with car travel as a result of modal shift. The value of changes in congestion, highway infrastructure renewal costs, accidents, local air quality, noise, greenhouse gases and indirect tax as a result of reduced expenditure on car fuel are all calculated Marginal external costs are calculated in the model in line with WebTAG Unit A 5-4. The change in tram passenger kilometres is used to estimate the change in car kilometres. It is assumed that the rail to car conversion rate of 26% given in WebTAG is applicable in the absence of a highway model. The Economic Appraisal is not unduly sensitive to the value of this assumption (a sensitivity test demonstrating this can be found at ) Marginal external costs parameters are provided in WebTAG to the year After this point, growth for each parameter is assumed to be in line with the following series, as noted in the appendix to WebTAG Unit A 5-4: Table 4.4: MEC Growth Parameters Factor Congestion Infrastructure Accident Local Air Quality Noise Greenhouse Gases Indirect Tax Series Work VoT Average GDP Per Person Average GDP Per Person Average GDP Per Person Average GDP Per Person Constant Work VoT Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

74 The delays to road users during construction would be a short term effect and are not conventionally considered in a WebTAG compliant appraisal for projects of this nature. We do not anticipate this being a significant impact, and it would require a disproportionate effort to value it as part of this business case. Capital Cost Assumptions The capital cost over the 60 year appraisal period is 22.3m in nominal market prices. The discounted present value is 15.4m in real 2010 prices and values The components of the capital costs are covered in more detail in the Chapter 5. Optimism bias of 6% is applied to capital costs. This level of optimism bias is based on the WebTAG value for a non-standard civil engineering project at Full Approval stage, consistent with the scale and nature of the works planned. The capital costs are based on recent experience of building identical infrastructure, there is a high level of confidence in the cost estimates Further details of the cost breakdown of the capital cost are provided in Chapter 5. Operating Cost Assumptions The components that comprise the scheme operating costs account for crew costs, electricity, and tram and track maintenance materials. Figure 4.3 shows the profile of each of these costs over the appraisal period for the preferred scheme. In real terms the crew and electricity costs increase by 1% per annum over the appraisal period whilst there is the step up in the third year of the scheme for the distance based material costs and annual variation for tram based material costs. Optimism bias has not been applied to the operating costs since they are based on outturn costs of the currently operating tram system and there is therefore a very high level of certainty regarding their level. Chapter 5 discusses the basis of these costs Real cost growth of 1% above RPI is applied until 2035, after which time the costs are held constant in GDP deflator real 2010 prices. Tram based materials costs are not capped as they reflect the life cycle of the trams The operating cost over the 60 year appraisal period is 58.6m in RPI real 2014/15 market prices (the annual profile of which is shown in Figure 4.3). In GDP Deflator real 2010 discounted present value terms, this amounts to 20.5m. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

75 Figure 4.3: Blackpool North Extension Operating Cost Increment The lower cost alternative would only operate at the increased frequency during some seasons of the year and for specified hours on these days, therefore the incremental operating cost compared to the DM is lower than for the central case. Compared to the DM there is the additional cost for extra crew hours given the increased frequency of service, as well as increases in electricity costs for the additional services leading to a small maintenance cost increment for km based materials. This is shown in Figure The operating cost of the LCA over the 60 year appraisal period is 11.01m in RPI Real 2014/15 market prices (the annual profile of which is shown in Figure 4.3). In GDP Deflator real 2010 discounted present value terms, this amounts to 3.9m. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

76 Figure 4.4: Blackpool North Extension Lower Cost Alternative Operating Cost Increment Further details of the assumptions behind these costs are provided in Chapter 5. Renewal Assumptions The renewal cost profile is based on the capital costs of the scheme, and assumed suggested life of the assets. The assets that feed into these maintenance costs in the Financial Case, along with their suggested life. These costs have real growth applied at a rate of 1% a year up to the point at which they are incurred. This real cost growth applies until the cap year (2035). Figure 4.5 shows the spend profile of the infrastructure renewal costs. Figure 4.5: Infrastructure Renewal Spend Profile Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

77 Over the appraisal period the cost of maintenance is 64.2m in nominal market prices. The discounted present value of these costs is 7.0m in real 2010 prices and values Chapter 5 provides a further breakdown of the maintenance costs associated with the scheme. 4.4 Transport Economic Efficiency and Public Accounts The methodology for assessing the impacts of the preferred scheme is discussed in section 4.2 above. The DfT s appraisal software (TUBA) was used to estimate the user benefits of the scheme in line with transport appraisal guidance. Non-user benefits are calculated in the appraisal model using the WebTAG method for marginal external costs Appendix K shows an example of the Economics and Scheme files that were used in TUBA. A separate Economics file was used for the High and Low demand seasons to reflect the difference in journey purpose split as shown in Table 4.2. The Scheme file is an example of one time period and user class, as these were run in TUBA separately The figure below shows the breakdown of journey time benefits in 2033 by time period for the Preferred Option. Figure 4.6: Benefits by time period The majority of the time benefits are experienced on weekdays in the high and low season since this is when the tram experiences the highest demand levels From the 2018 model run, it is estimated that the benefits per tram user (in minutes) as a result of the scheme are 2.0 min, 2.0 min and 2.1 min for business, commuting and other passengers respectively Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE) tables for the Preferred Option and Lower Cost Alternative are presented in Appendix C. All values presented in Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

78 the TEE table and in the following paragraphs are GDP deflator real 2010 prices and present values This shows that the travel time benefits for commuter users amount to 21.3m, with user charges reducing these benefits by 1.9m. The increase in user charges represents the disbenefit of passengers choosing a mode that results in them having to pay more than they currently do to make part of their trip. This gives an overall commuting user benefit of 19.3m over the appraisal period. Mode shift from car to tram use will generate 1.1m in highway decongestion benefits for commuting users From the 2013 tram surveys, in the high season commuting accounted for 14% of the tram demand. In order to estimate the low season demand, we removed 75% of visitor/tourist demand (reflecting lower tourism during this season). This led to a low season commuter percentage of approximately 21% For other users the journey time benefits equate to 36.0m, with an increase in user charges of 5.4m, giving overall other user benefits of 30.6m. Other users include passengers from the three segmentations of demand - Blackpool concessionary, other concessionary and non-concessionary. The increase in user charges is not associated with Blackpool concessionary pass holders (i.e. the other segment) who are not charged to travel on the tram. Mode shift from car to tram use will generate 2.0m in highway decongestion benefits for other users For business users there is a travel time benefit amounting to 2.8m over the appraisal period, with an increase in user charges of 0.2m therefore reducing the overall benefits to business users to 2.6m. Mode shift from car to tram use will generate 0.9 in highway decongestion benefits for business users Private sector provider impacts of the scheme, which are presented in the TEE table, include the investment costs. These amount to 22.4m. These costs will be funded by the public sector, requiring contract payments of 22.4m which result in a net neutral effect within the TEE The total monetised present value of TEE benefits for the Preferred Option is 52.5m. This includes the user benefits for business, commuting and other users, highway decongestion benefits and private sector provider impacts The Lower Cost Alternative (LCA) described in section 3.5 of this document delivers a total monetised present value of transport economic efficiency benefits of 17.6m, with indirect tax impacts of - 1.3m, giving a PVB of 16.6m The Public Accounts tables for the Preferred Option and the Lower Cost Alternative are presented in Appendix C Over the appraisal period the scheme is forecast to generate 27.2m of operator revenue, with operating costs amounting to 20.5m. These are represented within the Local Funding section of the Public Accounts table. Over the life of the appraisal this represents a positive operating position (revenue minus operating costs) for the scheme. The grant paid to the private sector to cover the investment costs (including renewals) of the Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

79 scheme ( 22.4m) is also captured in this table. Finally, a small reduction in highway maintenance costs ( 20k) as a result of modal shift is included, illustratively assumed to be incurred by Central Government The present value of costs (PVC) of the scheme, which includes operating revenue, operating costs and the investment grant, is 15.7m. The Public Accounts table also shows the impact of the scheme on indirect tax receipts (- 4.7m), although this forms part of the Present Value of Benefits (PVB) of the scheme as presented in the Analysis of Monetised Benefits and Costs (AMCB) table Due to the reduced tram km required to operate the Lower Cost Alternative service, operating costs are lower than for the central case, at 3.9m. The investment cost is lower than for the preferred scheme due to reduced renewals costs, at 7.2m. Revenue from the LCA is also lower at 6.6m. The total PVC of the LCA is 4.5m. 4.5 Safety Benefits As described in the Methodology section the method of Marginal External Costs to quantify the safety benefits of the scheme is considered a proportionate approach. The introduction of the tram scheme along Talbot Road is assumed not to materially change the accident characteristics along this section of road Parameters given in the TAG data book have been applied to the estimated change in car use as described in the Methodology section. This gives an economic benefit as a result of reduced accidents on the highway of 0.4m (PV, real 2010 prices) over the appraisal period, which represents a marginal impact. 4.6 Environmental and Social Impacts It was confirmed that an Environmental Impact Assessment was not required for the for the scheme by the Secretary of State. As part of the TWAO application, a Transport Assessment, Air Quality Assessment Report, Heritage Desk-Based Assessment and Flood Risk Assessment were produced. These can be located on the TWAO website for the scheme via It is anticipated that the scheme will deliver environmental benefits during the operational phase. These have been monetised where possible using the Marginal External Costs (MEC) approach, in common with the safety benefits described above. There are likely to be additional environmental impacts that could result from the scheme and these are described below. Air Quality The results of the Air Quality Assessment can be found in the TWAO document A14.1. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

80 Effects during Proposed Scheme Construction Construction activities have the potential to generate fugitive dust emissions as a result of construction, earthworks and/ or trackout of material. For the Proposed Scheme, the concentrations of any airborne particulate matter generated by these activities will be controlled using on site management practices to the extent that the Proposed Scheme should give rise to negligible short-term effects on dust deposition rates and concentrations of particulate matter at the nearest sensitive receptors Overall, the impact of fugitive emissions of dust and particulate matter from the proposed works will be managed during the construction processes and the effect is considered to be not significant with respect to potential impacts on health and amenity A qualitative assessment has been carried out in relation to potential changes in local air quality associated with temporary re-routing of existing traffic flows during the construction phase of the Proposed Scheme. Temporary re-routing of traffic along the local road network is expected to increase traffic flows on nearby roads over a short period of time (several weeks), resulting in higher NO 2, PM 10 and PM 2.5 concentrations at nearby sensitive receptors. The effects of these higher concentrations on local air quality are considered to be temporary and slight adverse and therefore not significant. Effects during Proposed Scheme Operation Predictions of NO 2, PM 10 and PM 2.5 concentrations at existing receptors in the vicinity of the Proposed Scheme and local road network have shown that there would be negligible changes in pollutant concentrations between the Do Nothing and Do Something scenarios. The impact of the additional emissions from road sources during operation of the Proposed Scheme to sensitive receptors is therefore considered to be negligible and therefore not significant. Additionally, the Proposed Scheme and its air quality effects are considered to be consistent with relevant planning policy On the basis of the construction and operational assessments carried out, the overall effect of the Proposed Scheme on air quality is not considered to be significant The effects of changes to traffic flows on local air quality are expected to be minor and therefore not significant. The scheme will re-route traffic from Talbot Square along Clifton Street resulting in an increase in vehicles on Clifton Street. However, the overall volume of traffic within the Blackpool AQMA is not expected to change due to the proposed scheme. As a result, receptors are predicted to experience only a small change in NO 2 and PM 10 and PM 2.5 concentrations which are negligible and not significant Air Quality has therefore only been taken to Stage 1 of the Distributional Impacts (DI) process (see Appendix D) as it was found to neither be significant nor concentrated. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

81 Noise This impact has been reviewed as part of the Blackpool Tramway Extension, Talbot Road, Technical Note: Preliminary Environmental Assessment, AECOM, January The scheme will introduce tram vehicles along Talbot Road; however, the operation of the tram vehicles is not expected to result in a significant change in noise levels on noise sensitive receptors located along Talbot Road With the exception of the tram vehicles, no additional traffic will be generated by the Proposed Scheme; however, Talbot Road will be closed to all eastbound traffic between Talbot Square and Abingdon Street, with traffic rerouted via Clifton Street and Abingdon Street. A preliminary analysis of traffic count data provided by Blackpool Council indicated that the traffic flow on Clifton Street could be doubled, which would potentially give a 3 db increase in road traffic noise levels. The predominantly commercial nature of the receptors in this area, coupled with the corresponding reduction in noise levels on Talbot Road, is expected to result in a minor noise effect and is therefore not likely to be significant In respect of vibration and ground-borne noise, the scheme is not anticipated to result in any significant effects The monetised economic benefit of reduced traffic noise (which will occur throughout Blackpool, rather than just near the line of route) has been calculated using the Marginal External Costs approach, with a value of 0.03m (PV, real 2010 prices) over the appraisal period. This was considered for further analysis as part of the Distributional Impacts assessment, but was not taken forward for further investigation after the stage 1 screening (see Appendix D) as it was found to neither be significant nor concentrated. Greenhouse Gases This impact has been reviewed as part of the Blackpool Tramway Extension, Talbot Road, Technical Note: Preliminary Environmental Assessment, AECOM, January The construction of any infrastructure project will result in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and construction works almost always result in a net increase in GHG emissions However, this negative impact during construction can be offset by positive impacts during operation: light rail infrastructure schemes provide an opportunity to offset these GHG emissions, as a result of modal shift from more carbon intensive forms of transport (e.g. a shift from road transportation to the tram network) The Marginal External Costs analysis found that the impact of the scheme on greenhouse gas emissions would be a benefit of 0.1m (PV, real 2010 prices). Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

82 Landscape and Townscape This impact has been reviewed as part of the Blackpool Tramway Extension, Talbot Road, Technical Note: Preliminary Environmental Assessment, AECOM, January No landscape constraints were identified in respect of the site or the scheme. A number of potentially sensitive visual receptors (both residential and recreational (North Blackpool Pier and hotels along Talbot Road)), were identified within the site area. However, the scheme is unlikely to adversely affect the townscape or visual receptors along Talbot Road, given the presence of the existing tramway along the Promenade. Lighting columns for the Blackpool illuminations are an established feature of the Promenade and Talbot Road and are similar in scale and nature to the OLE poles that would replace them There is potential for the tramway to result in improvements to the existing streetscape, particularly at the eastern end of the scheme (in the vicinity of the railway station) Through appropriate design, no significant effects on townscape or views are anticipated as a result of the scheme. Heritage Historic Environment was reviewed as part of the Blackpool Tramway Extension, Talbot Road, Technical Note: Preliminary Environmental Assessment, AECOM, January A Heritage Assessment was then undertaken to further ascertain the impacts of the scheme. The results of the Heritage Assessment can be found in the TWAO document A The proposed route is located within the Blackpool Town Centre Conservation Area, which extends along Talbot Road between the North Pier and Dickson Road Several Listed Buildings are located proximate to the proposed route, including: North Pier (Grade II, reference ) War Memorial (Grade II, reference ) Clifton Hotel (Grade II, reference ) Town Hall (Grade II, reference ) K6 Kiosk (Grade II, reference ) Church of the Scared Heart (Grade II*, ) K6 Kiosk (Grade II, reference ) The Historic Environment review showed that the scheme would not result in physical impacts to the heritage assets identified above but there was the potential for limited adverse effects on the setting of these heritage assets In accordance with the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), a setting assessment was undertaken to determine the magnitude of any effects on the setting of heritage assets submitted to support the TWAO application for the scheme. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

83 The results of the Heritage Assessment showed the following: The reinstatement of trams as part of the scheme is beneficial to the town and would enhance the heritage of the area by providing a link to the heyday years of Blackpool when trams last traversed the same route; The scheme will not physically harm the significance of the listed or locally listed buildings within the site, as there will be no physical alteration to them; The proposed additional signage, signalled junctions, OLE, pedestrian crossings and associated traffic management will lead to additional visual clutter within the Study Area, which could detract from the overall experience of the Town Centre Conservation Area. However, it noted that Talbot Square is an area that is constantly evolving and junctions have previously been changed and upgraded. The loss of public realm in Talbot Square will diminish the experience of Talbot Square as a historic square and the focal point of the historic development of Blackpool; however, the Square has been subject to many changes since it was first laid out. Both historically and currently the Square has been dominated by road and tramway infrastructure. The scheme will provide an area of public realm within the footprint of the square, on the northern side of the proposed new tramway, and as such it will not be completely lost The assessment found that the Town Centre Conservation Area will be impacted by the scheme but with regard to National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) Chapter 12, there will be less than substantial harm to the significant and setting of the Town Centre Conservation Area. Biodiversity This impact has been reviewed as part of the Blackpool Tramway Extension, Talbot Road, Technical Note: Preliminary Environmental Assessment, AECOM, January Talbot Road is a busy Town Centre street with no public open space, bare ground or street trees. The closest designated sites for ecology are located over 2 km from the route and will not be adversely affected by the proposed scheme There may be potential for bats to roost in buildings along the route; however, there would be no direct impacts to buildings and as such, adverse effects on bat species are unlikely to occur The potential for other protected species or invasive species to be present along the proposed route of the tramway is low and adverse effects are therefore unlikely to occur. Water Environment The proposed tramway extension is located within Flood Zone 1 (low risk) based on the Environment Agency flood zone maps. Flood Zone 1 comprises land assessed as having less than a 1 in 1,000 annual exceedance probability (AEP) of river flooding ( 0.1%). According to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), a site-specific flood risk Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

84 assessment is required for proposals of 1 hectare (ha) or greater in Flood Zone A Flood Risk Assessment was completed for the TWAO application (Document Reference A14.2). The report concluded that the scheme would remain safe during its lifetime and would not increase flood risk within the site or elsewhere. The scheme is, therefore, considered to be acceptable in flood risk terms and meets with the requirements of the National Planning Policy Framework. Physical Activity The impact of the scheme on physical activity has been assessed as broadly neutral. The impact of mode shift from private car use to the tram will increase physical activity as passengers walk to and from tram stops. However, some of the mode shift to the tram may be from users who previously had walked or cycled, and may therefore reduce physical activity. Neither impact is expected to be material. Journey Quality Journey quality has not been assessed individually as part of this business case development, but the observed preference of users for trams over buses is reflected in the approach to modelling (discussed in section 4.2 Methodology). Therefore, whilst an improvement in journey quality will result from the mode shift from buses to trams that has been found in this assessment, the benefit is already accounted for within the journey time benefits. Accidents As the scheme anticipates there will be modal shift from car this will result in a small benefit included in the business case of reduction in accidents. These benefits are likely to be evenly spread around the Blackpool and Fleetwood area. As discussed in Chapter 4.5 (Safety Benefits) the reduction in road accidents leads to an economic benefit of 0.4m across the 60 year appraisal period. This was considered for further analysis as part of the Distributional Impacts assessment, but was not taken forward for further investigation after the stage 1 screening (see Appendix D) as it was found to neither be significant nor concentrated. Security It is not anticipated that the scheme will have a significant impact on security. However, tram stops will be well lit and fitted with CCTV, which will provide some additional security (both perceived and actual) benefit. This was considered for further analysis as part of the Distributional Impacts assessment, but was not taken forward for further investigation after the stage 1 screening (see Appendix D) as it was found to neither be significant nor concentrated. Access to Services The extension of the Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway will improve the connectivity and movements in and around Blackpool and also linkages into Blackpool and from Blackpool to the surrounding areas. The scheme will Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

85 Affordability provide access from Talbot Gateway and areas outside Blackpool to the seafront whilst also improving movements within Blackpool. This will improve accessibility to services and jobs for local residents and also general accessibility for visitors to Blackpool. Therefore the scheme will provide a moderate accessibility benefit. This is further considered in the Distributional Impacts section 4.7 below The scheme will improve public transport connectivity and accessibility to leisure attractions and employment in Blackpool; this will encourage users to travel more. Depending on the distance travelled the Blackpool and Fleetwood trams are a higher fare product than buses so modal shift gives them an affordability disbenefit, incurring user charges (- 7.6m). However people do benefit from more choice and buses are still available as a travel option. This is further considered in the Distributional Impacts section 4.7 below. Severance There is only likely to be a limited severance disbenefit as a result of the scheme, with the tramway not creating a significant barrier to movement. Some negative impacts could be created through the introduction of the tramway, but these would be very minor, since the tramway extension is very short and at grade it will be easy for pedestrians to cross. The scheme will also provide a severance benefit, as it will involve the signalisation of two roundabouts near Blackpool North Station. Taken together, these two factors have been assessed to generate an overall neutral severance impact. This was considered for further analysis as part of the Distributional Impacts assessment, but was not taken forward for further investigation after the stage 1 screening (see Appendix D). Option and Non-Use Values By enhancing the local public transport network, the scheme results in option value benefits, since the enhanced connectivity of Blackpool to the heavy rail network is attractive even if it is not used for example, a commuter may generally get to work via bicycle, but derive benefit from having the option of the tram in case of a puncture. This generates a slight beneficial option value impact as a result of the scheme Environmental maps and further evidence are included in Appendix E. 4.7 Distributional Impacts A proportionate approach to the analysis of DIs has been undertaken. The process maintains alignment to the guidance set out in TAG Unit A4.2 but has streamlined some of the Step 2 process. An Output Summary Table has therefore not been produced A Step 1 assessment of the Distributional Impacts (DIs) of the scheme is presented in Appendix D. Step 1 is the basis to screening whether or not DIs need to be progressed to a fuller evaluation (DI Steps 2 and 3). Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

86 4.7.3 The results of the Step 1 analysis shows that the impacts for noise, air quality, accidents, security and severance do not require further evaluation Impacts associated with User Benefits and Affordability have been taken through to Step 2 directly within this Business Case, since Step 1 screening found that the criteria had been met to for further analysis. The approaches to the Step 2 evaluation are proportionate to the size of the scheme Additionally, Accessibility has also been taken through to Step 2 directly within this Business Case because improving accessibility was one of the key objectives set out in the Strategic Case On the basis of the scale of the impacts there is no requirement for Step 3 analysis and therefore full analysis has not been undertaken. An appraisal matrix for impact on income distribution has therefore not been completed and is not reported on within the AST Appendix D contains the Step 1 pro-forma and maps associated with the Step 2 screening for User Benefits, Accessibility and Affordability. Accessibility Accessibility considers the impact of the scheme on access to employment, services and social networks. The Need for Intervention section of the Strategic Case notes that one of the objectives for intervention is to contribute to enhanced quality of life by improving access for all to jobs and services (see ) The increased coverage of the tramway and improved frequency will improve the movement of people to, from and within Blackpool. This will give people the option of shorter journey times and efficient and easy interchanges between modes. Ultimately, this will result in improved access to key services and employment opportunities Accessibility has been assessed proportionately. Maps of each vulnerable group required by WebTAG have been reviewed based on the impact of the scheme on them and a view taken for each group The scope of each map provides coverage from Starr Gate to Bispham (which is where the scheme effectively ends as there is an interchange requirement to travel onwards to Fleetwood). Income Distribution The majority of the existing tramway line is situated through areas of high income deprivation, as is the extension. The addition of the extension will contribute to improving access for income deprived areas including those within the Town Centre The scheme will benefit the residents of these areas by enhancing access to jobs and services. Children under 16 years old Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

87 The proportion of children who are aged 16 years old or less is low within the vicinity of the scheme. There is therefore a low impact on these groups in terms of changes to accessibility. Young Adults aged The central sections of the tramway between Lowther Avenue and Harrow Place are within areas of relatively high proportions of young adults and they will therefore receive a proportionately greater benefit from the scheme The scheme will contribute to enhancing access to jobs and services within the Fylde Coast area, both as a direct result of the tramway, and as a result of improved integration of tram with rail. Older People aged 65 or over The central sections of the tramway are within areas where there are lower proportions of older people. There are higher concentrations of older people on the periphery of the tramway The scheme contributes to improved accessibility for older people who use the tram because provides direct access to services within the central areas of the town and it also supports access to wider services to rail without the need for interchange. Proportion of the population with a disability A relatively high proportion of people who have a disability in the study area live close to the scheme and along the existing tramway The scheme will contribute to improving accessibility to this group of people by removing the need for interchange to reach the rail station or central areas by tram, contributing to an improved door-to-door journey. The scheme will also provide improved urban realm which will contribute to general improvements in accessibility within the Town Centre, along Talbot Road, to the Promenade. Proportion of population of Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) The proportion of BME people who would be affected by the scheme is low. Consequently, there will be a low impact on these groups in terms of changes to accessibility arising from the scheme. Proportion of carers with dependent children There are areas which are affected by the scheme with high proportions of carers. This group may place greater value on seamless access to central and wider services The scheme will contribute to enhanced and integrated access for carers to services located in Blackpool Town Centre but also to services which might be required beyond Blackpool through interchange with rail. Conclusion Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

88 The scheme improves accessibility for many of the groups identified as vulnerable in TAG Unit 4.2 predominately because the scheme removes the requirement for interchange to reach central services by tram and services beyond Blackpool accessed by rail. There are, however, not large groups of children under 16, or BME populations that will benefit in terms of the accessibility of the scheme. However, there is no evidence that these groups will suffer disbenefits as a result of the scheme. User Benefits and Affordability User benefits from a scheme are measured by the changes in journey times which occur as a result of a scheme. The changes in journey times are calculated though TUBA, and their effect on vulnerable groups (defined by income distribution) is considered as part of the distributional impact assessment. Enhancing these user benefits is a direct contributor to the goal of maximising economic growth in the Fylde Coast region, which is identified as a key objective for the intervention in the Strategic Case (see ) In addition, TUBA also calculates the affordability impacts of the scheme. The changes in the costs of travel are most strongly felt by those in areas characterised by high deprivation The User Benefits from the scheme have been mapped and are shown in Appendix D. The map represents the total time benefits in hours per zone for the year of 2018 (the first model year) Large sections of the Blackpool area, particularly along the sea front, are classified as being within the most deprived quintile. Areas of deprivation are often strongly aligned with high instances of poor car accessibility and therefore there is a high reliance on public transport The plot for total user benefits per zone shows that most of the user benefits from the scheme are aligned to areas with the highest levels of deprivation. The distribution of user benefits to the 0%-20% quintile in the area shown in the plot is approximately 70% with less than 10% of user benefits in the 60% and above quintiles. The positive journey times savings from the scheme will be beneficial in terms of access to jobs and key services Analysis of the user benefits per user shows that all but one model area will see benefits of 1 to more than 5 minutes of journey time savings per person. The one area with small journey time disbenefits, is close to Manchester Road (approximately 2 minutes per user) The Affordability outputs from TUBA are mapped and are also shown in Appendix D. The map shows the total changes in pence per head for the year of 2018 (the first model year). The majority of areas will see additional costs of between 0p and 3p to journeys. The area around between Central Pier and South Pier see travel cost increases of up to 22p. There is an additional area around West Poulton-le-Fylde which will also see an increase of up to 22p. It is important to note that tram fares in Blackpool will not increase as a result of the scheme. The change in affordability is because users are choosing to take tram over bus which is relatively more expensive. Through choosing the tram over bus, they have essentially bought the journey time benefits that the scheme brings forward. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

89 Reviewing this against the distribution of income deprivation in the area shows that the scheme does impact slightly negatively for these groups particularly for the Central Pier to South Pier area this impact must be weighed against the positive enhancements to journey time of up to 2.5 minutes. The majority of the lowest income quintile will see zero or negligible changes in average fares paid The overall user benefits impacts outweigh the affordability impacts, and this effect can be seen in areas of high income deprivation throughout the study area. Therefore, the user benefits and affordability impact of the scheme in distributional terms is positive The distributional impacts of the scheme, including those that were only assessed at stage 1 as well as those assessed further in this section, are positive. Benefits are well distributed amongst vulnerable social groups, and there is no evidence of benefits falling disproportionately to any one social or income group. 4.8 Wider Impacts Wider Impacts are economic benefits that are generated by transport schemes in addition to transport user benefits. These benefits can contribute towards the realisation of the objectives of the intervention, since they are closely aligned to the three types of movement which are important to the economy of Blackpool. Wider impacts have been considered from the perspective of impact on local GVA and also using the approach recommended in WebTAG. Local GVA approach Extending the tramways to the station will reduce the overall journey time for those passengers accessing Blackpool by rail who make an onward journey to a tram-served destination on foot or by public transport. Standard rail industry forecasting techniques and assumptions have been used to calculate a potential increase of around 7% for these visitors. From this method, we estimate the potential range to be between 11,500 20,000 additional visitor trips per year The 2011 Great Britain Day Visits Survey estimated that the average spend per tourism day visit in Blackpool was 34. A conservative assumption has been made that overnight visitors would stay only one night (whereas many would stay significantly more) and thereby that overnight visitors would spend 68 plus 40 for accommodation Local information suggests that 42% of visitors to Blackpool stay overnight and 58% of visitors to Blackpool come for the day By applying these visitor spend assumptions to the induced rail trips, the present value of the increased visitor spend is thereby estimated to be in the range of 29.5m to 50.9m increased GVA 22 over a 60 year appraisal period. While this estimate is presented in economic appraisal consistent units for This is a gross GVA estimate which makes no account of deadweight, leakage or substitution of other trips potentially made from elsewhere in Lancashire. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

90 comparison it is noted that it cannot simply be added to the present value of benefits calculated from the transport model The economic case does not depend on these benefits, but the potential of additional tourism trips and spend in the local economy is clear There would be no increase in visitor GVA from the Lower Cost Alternative because it does not provide improved connectivity to Blackpool from the rest of the UK. WebTAG approach There are three broad effects that are captured as part of a Wider Impacts assessment: Agglomeration Benefits which are benefits associated with productivity increases which occur when the concentration of economic activity in an area is increased, giving firms access to larger labour markets, and driving knowledge and technology spill overs' Imperfect Competition Benefits - which are the extent to which companies can produce more goods and services as a result of a reduced cost of transport arising from improved transport networks Labour Supply Impacts - which is the extent to which workers pay more in taxes when the transport offer allows them to either enter the workforce, or move to a more productive job Table 4.5 below outlines how each of these effects could attribute to the three key types of movement identified in section of the Strategic Case: Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

91 Table 4.5: Wider Impacts effects on types of movements Movement Agglomeration Imperfect Competition Inward movement n/a Improved of tourists to transport Blackpool from networks will regional and allow for reduced national origins business costs, increasing the amount of services they can offer, and therefore having a beneficial impact on the The two-way movement of local residents between the North West and Blackpool for work and leisure and services The internal movement of people between jobs and services and residential areas within Blackpool The movement of local residents between the North West and Blackpool generates the possibility of knowledge and technology spillovers tourist sector. The reduced cost of transport as a result of improved public transport networks will generate increased business, and therefore benefit local residents moving around the region for work purposes. Labour Supply n/a Improved connectivity of the Fylde Coast region will allow people to access better paid jobs or enter the workforce, leading to improved taxation receipts. n/a n/a Improved connectivity within Blackpool will allow people to access better paid jobs or enter the workforce, leading to improved taxation receipts The analytical approach to valuing agglomeration benefits is able to value these benefits best in areas in which the dominant industries are knowledge and/or information based. These tend to be large urban centres, and are defined in WebTAG as Functional Urban Regions (FURs) Whilst agglomeration benefits as a result of the scheme are anticipated, these are difficult to quantify as Blackpool and Fleetwood do not fall within a FUR. A quantitative assessment of agglomeration impacts resulting from the scheme would be unlikely to find any material benefits, and undertaking such an assessment would be disproportionate. However, the impact of the scheme has been qualitatively assessed as beneficial with regards to agglomeration, due to the potential for the scheme to draw the economic activity of Blackpool and the surrounding area closer together by increasing the connectivity between them. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

92 Imperfect competition benefits are calculated as being 10% of business user benefits. For this scheme, the business user benefits are 2.8m. This gives an imperfect competition benefit of 0.28m As noted in section 3.4 of this document, one of the objectives of the scheme (objective 5) is to improve accessibility to jobs and services. This would have an impact on labour supply, and therefore generate benefits as a result of changes in taxation receipts. We have therefore assessed the benefit in terms of Labour Supply as beneficial. A quantitative assessment has not been undertaken, as the development of a Land Use Transport Interaction (LUTI) model would be required, and this would not be proportionate for this assessment. 4.9 Appraisal Summary Table The Scheme AST is included in Appendix F The table presents the full set of impacts quantified for the scheme, as well as impacts which have been assessed qualitatively. The combination of these two approaches is discussed further in the Value for Money Statement below Value for Money Statement The completed Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (AMCB) table is included in Appendix G DfT guidance explains that the Value for Money assessment must take account of both the Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), representing monetised benefits and costs, and qualitative factors where these are considered relevant and of a magnitude sufficient to affect the value of the scheme Based on the assumptions discussed in previous chapters, the scheme generates a Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) of 3.07:1. On this monetised assessment alone this indicates High Value for Money, as defined in the Department for Transport s guide to Value for Money Assessments. This does not include the monetised Wider Impacts benefits relating to imperfectly competitive markets (which amount to 277k PV) In addition to the monetised assessment, the following qualitative factors have been established: Wider Impacts: A qualitative assessment has been made of potential agglomeration benefits, which are anticipated to be beneficial, and of labour supply impacts which, given the increased opportunity for workers to access highly paid jobs (one of the objectives as detailed in section 3.1 of the Strategic Case) would also be anticipated to be beneficial; Environmental Impacts: Section 4.6 of this document outlines the high level environmental assessment of the scheme. Where possible, the Marginal External Costs approach has been used to monetise benefits, and these monetised benefits are included in the scheme BCR. Other factors have been assessed qualitatively, with no significant disbenefits found in the operational phase, and some beneficial elements, such as expected improvements in air quality. There are likely to be some limited duration disbenefits during construction; Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

93 Accessibility: the tram extension will improve connectivity for movements within Blackpool and also connecting Talbot Gateway with the Promenade, serving demand travelling into or out of Blackpool Taken together, the qualitative impacts are positive, indicating that there are no adverse effects that would justify reducing the Value for Money assessment to Medium and that a High Value for Money assessment is appropriate. Lower Cost Alternative A Lower Cost Alternative (LCA) was tested as part of the development of this business case. This option assumes 8 trams per hour operating on the existing tramway at certain times i.e. with no extension to Blackpool North Rail Station. It is assumed that the increased frequency operates between 9.30am and 5.00pm on the following days: Saturdays and Sundays in the Spring 7 days a week in the Summer Friday, Saturday and Sunday during the illuminations As a result of operating on a smaller network, serving less destinations, there are reduced benefits of the scheme. There are also cost savings relative to the Preferred Option as a result of not requiring the construction costs, and lower associated operating and maintenance costs The Lower Cost Alternative has a BCR of Although the scheme represents value for money economically, it does not align with the strategic aims of the project A summary of the benefits and costs of the central case and the LCA is shown in Table 4.6 below: Table 4.6: Central Case and LCA PVB ( 000) PVC ( 000) NPV ( 000) BCR Central Case 48,263-15,707 32, LCA 16,610-4,486 12, A test has been conducted assuming the 8tph of the LCA and including the operating cost of either one or two shuttle buses operating from Blackpool North station to the Promenade. This LCA-variant option would better meet the scheme objectives than the LCA. This test was modelled at a very high level and it was assumed that the cost per annum of operating a shuttle bus would be 150k, therefore an additional annual operating cost of 150k or 300k was included for one and two buses respectively. Including the cost of one bus reduces the BCR for the LCA to 2.01 and two buses reduces it to This illustrates that an LCA which meets the scheme objectives in a similar way to the Preferred Option, would have a lower BCR than the Preferred Option and also a negative operating position (i.e. requiring subsidy for operation). Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

94 Sensitivities Sensitivity tests have been undertaken to understand the robustness of the Value for Money assessment. Two of these have considered the impact of increased costs, five have considered the impact of reduced benefits and six test sensitivity to the Value of Time parameters as prescribed by WebTAG. The results of these tests are shown in Table 4.7 below: Table 4.7: Sensitivity Tests Sensitivity Test / Measure PVB ( 000) PVC ( 000) NPV ( 000) BCR 20% increase in capital 48,263-18,782 29, costs 20 % increase in 48,263-19,800 28, operating costs No Marginal External 44,179-15,727 28, Cost (MEC) benefits No MEC or mode 43,321-34,231 9, shift/demand response benefits No growth in VoT in PT 47,287-16,575 30, Model 10% tram wait time 46,978-16,845 30, increase for boarders at Blackpool North 1 minute tram boarding 27,333-24,723 2, penalty +25% Business VoT 48,722-15,707 33, % Business VoT 47,803-15,707 32, % Commuting VoT 53,303-15,707 37, % Commuting VoT 43,222-15,707 27, % Other VoT 68,641-15,707 52, % Other VoT 27,884-15,707 12, The cost sensitivities of higher capital costs and higher operating costs, reduce the BCR to 2.57 and 2.44 respectively. Therefore, even if the costs have been underestimated by 20%, the scheme continues to represent High Value for Money Three of the five tests that consider different ways in which benefits could be lower than those calculated in the central case show a BCR above 2.00, indicating High Value for Money. Two tests show a BCR lower than The first assumes no mode shift/demand response to reduced transport costs and thus also no Marginal External Cost impacts, resulting in a BCR of 1.27 though it is unlikely that such an extreme outcome would occur. The second increases the tram boarding penalty to 1 minute (0 minutes assumed in the central case), this results in a BCR of 1.11; in this case noting that the test is a synthetic test of a parameter that is calibrated in the base year model. The change in BCR is due to three effects (1) the boarding penalty is a calibrated parameter, so changing it in a scheme test will effectively reduce the tram patronage beyond what should be expected in the base model, (2) changing the boarding penalty reduces the time benefits of the tram extension (which currently average around 1-2mins per user), (3) Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

95 changing the boarding penalty reduces the relative attractiveness of the tram and thereby reduces patronage Five of the six Value of Time sensitivity tests result in a BCR above 2.00, indicating High Value for Money. The final test, which assumes that WebTAG s Values of Time for the Other trip purpose are 60% too high results in a BCR of 1.78 (this represents an extremely unlikely outcome) Conclusion There is a strong economic case for the scheme, with the analysis presented showing that it represents High Value for Money. The analysis undertaken at this stage does not present any significant downside uncertainties with regards to the outcomes assessed The scheme drives significant user time benefits, which outweigh the associated user charges. The operator revenue generated over the scheme appraisal period is nearly 33% more than the operating costs, indicating a positive overall operating position Sensitivity testing has been undertaken, and this has contributed to the high level of confidence which can be had in the assessment that the scheme delivers High Value for Money, with all but three of the down-side sensitivities reporting BCRs in excess of Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

96 5 The Financial Case 5.1 Introduction The Financial Case concentrates on the affordability of the proposal, its funding arrangements and technical accounting issues (Value for Money is scrutinised in the Economic Case) The Financial Case is discussed under the following headings: Methodology Assumptions Base Costs Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) Optimism Bias Scheme Costs Adjusted for Risk and Optimism Bias Preferred Funding Arrangements Alternative Funding Arrangements Conclusions 5.2 Methodology An initial budget for the scheme was produced to form part of the Strategic Outline Business Case produced for the Fylde Coast Transport Study in As a result of the major scheme upgrade in 2012, Blackpool Council has a wealth of experience to draw on in this field in forecasting the timescales and costs of such projects. An updated budget and cost report for the scheme was produced and submitted with the Conditional Approval Business Case. The report provided an assessment and benchmarking of the scheme costs, with reference to the scope of works and to costs from previous projects. Further to this, a revised cost estimation exercise has been carried out based on the latest assessment of cost, based on a procurement process and revised quotations for the works. Therefore these initial costs have now been revised to reflect this. The costs can be categorised into capital, operational and maintenance. The capital cost estimates are taken from the Scheme Cost Report (September 2017) issued by Blackpool Council The capital costs for the scheme are made up of the following line items: Design, Staff and Prelims Highway works Highway junction works Tram works and systems Tram stops Traction power and OLE Costs to date Statutory Undertakers Works Vehicles SCADA Pre-construction costs Management of Capital Works Blackpool Council Costs Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

97 Risk The table below shows an estimate of the capital cost associated with each of these items. It also shows which category they are classified to in the Base Cost Table (Table 5.1) and whether this cost also has a renewal aspect. Table 5.1: Capital Cost Items Cost Item Year Comments Nominal ( 000) Base Cost Category Renewal cost? Design, staff and prelims 2017/18 2,802 Construction No Costs to date Statutory Undertakers Works 2019/20 Pre-July / / Preparation and Administration 2,116 Preparation and Administration Vehicles 2019/20 5,034 Supervision and Testing SCADA Pre-July 507 Supervision 2017 and Testing Pre- 2017/ Preparation Construction and Costs Administration Management of Capital Works Construction Costs Highway Works Highway Junction Works Track works and Systems 2017/ / / / / / / /20 Tram Stops 2017/ /20 Traction Power and OLE 2017/ /20 Total 20,815 1,014 Preparation and Administration No No Yes No No No 1,829 Construction No 845 Construction Yes 4,198 Construction Yes 149 Construction Yes 1,094 Construction Yes The total capital cost estimated for the scheme (excluding risk and BBC funded preparation costs) is 20.8m in nominal terms. As the table above shows these costs are spread across the construction period between 2017/18 and 2019/20. Appendix H shows both the nominal and real cost of each line item, allowing for comparison with the Cost Report. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

98 5.2.5 The Lower Cost Alternative does not include the construction costs and only included the cost of the additional vehicles and 25% of the Management of Capital Works cost from the central case, and is therefore 5.3m in nominal terms, excluding risk and costs to Blackpool Council It should be noted that costs relating to the purchase of the Wilkinson s site are independent to the scheme costs Maintenance costs for the scheme are calculated based on the renewal of elements of the capital cost. These are presented below, including the suggested life spans for each element after which replacement is required: Plain track (24 year suggested life) Point work (24 year suggested life) Stops (21 year suggested life) Traction Power (30 year suggested life) System Equipment (30 year suggested life) Road junction signalling (21 year suggested life) Trams (30 year suggested life) Switchblade renewal (12 year suggested life) The spend profile of the renewal costs is shown in Figure 4.5 in the Economic Case. Over the appraisal period the maintenance costs of the scheme are 53.9m in nominal terms. The table below shows this cost broken down for the components listed above, along with the rationale for the suggested life. Table 5.2: Maintenance Cost Items Maintenance Cost Item Suggested Life Reason Cost over appraisal period ( m, nominal) Plain track 24 Research indicated that tram track lasts between 20 and 30 years depending on usage and track location. For the purposes of this business case, 24 was selected as a mid-range value that can be divided by 2 and 3 for subcomponent work (see switchblade renewal) Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final Point work 24 As plain track Stops 21 In line with general life of bus stop facilities 5.37 Traction Power 30 The equipment is generally renewed 3.87

99 Maintenance Cost Item System Equipment Road Junction Signalling Suggested Life Reason Cost over appraisal period ( m, nominal) at the same time as the trams as part of system upgrades 30 The equipment is 3.18 generally renewed at the same time as the trams as part of system upgrades 21 In line with 3.66 general life of road traffic signalling equipment Trams 30 The Bombardier maintenance information supplied indicated an 8 year bogie overhaul cycle for the Flexity trams. General industry experience is that trams last around 30 years. Switchblade renewal 12 Current Blackpool experience indicates that the switchblades need renewing at around half the expected overall life of the point work Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final Total The change in operating costs as a result of the scheme is estimated for the following components: Crew costs Electricity costs Track based material costs Tram based material costs The scheme will lead to an increase of 16,956 tram hours per annum (compared to forecast operation levels at the time of introduction).the cost of these hours is estimated based on the assumption of each tram operating with one driver and two conductors at hourly rates of and 9.00 per individual respectively (inclusive of National Insurance and pensions), giving an overall staff cost per tram hour of Considering this hourly cost

100 with the increment of tram hours gives an annual crew cost increase of 556,153 (current cost values). The service is assumed to be provided by three tram vehicles; the capital costs included within this business case allow for the purchase of two additional vehicles, the third is available from within the present fleet The annual increase in electricity cost is estimated to be 75,513 in current cost values based on the increase in tram kilometres associated with the scheme combined with an electricity cost per km of 0.34 (sourced from BTS) Distance based material costs for the scheme are quantified based on preventative and corrective maintenance material costs in accordance with data provided by Bombardier. Trams are covered by warranty for corrective maintenance in the first two years, as a result, there is a step up in operating costs in the third year of the scheme from an annual incremental cost of 7,120 (preventative maintenance only) to 36,012 (preventative and corrective maintenance) for distance based material costs (in current cost values) Incremental tram based material costs for the scheme are estimated based on the addition of two vehicles to the tram fleet. The incremental increase in tram based material costs varies over the appraisal period and is shown in Figure 4.3 of the Economic Case. 5.3 Assumptions It is assumed the statutory undertaker s infrastructure diversion and/or protection works will span from October 2017 to 31 March The construction period for the scheme will be for 16 months to July The scheme will open in These timescales are in line with those identified in the Management Case (Chapter 7) The capital costs have been derived in nominal prices The maintenance costs are based on incurring replacement capital costs after the suggested life span of each element, as described in the section above. For all costs except the vehicles a 40% uplift is applied covering risk, project premium and optimism bias. The maintenance costs are capped in real terms from The operating costs are estimated in RPI 2014/15 prices based on the methodology described in the section above. Real cost growth is added to the costs at 1% until 2035 where it is then held constant, reflecting WebTAG which suggests real costs are capped 20 years from the current day. 5.4 Base Costs Table 5.3 shows the estimate of the base costs of the scheme in nominal prices. Using Table 5.1 above the line items have been categorised into: Construction Land and Property Preparation and Administration Supervision and Testing Maintenance (capital costs) Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

101 5.4.2 Excluding maintenance and preparation costs, all other base costs fall during 2017/2018 and 2019/20. The maintenance costs fall throughout the 60 year appraisal period. Table 5.3: Base Costs Category Estimate ( m, nominal) Construction Land and Property 0.00 Preparation and Administration 4.36 Supervision and Testing 5.54 Maintenance (Capital Costs) Total There are no land costs associated with the scheme as it will be delivered on land within promoter ownership. 5.5 Quantified Risk Assessment A Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) has been conducted with the following key objectives, to: Allow the promoter to value its exposure to capital cost risk and to make an appropriate allowance in the budget for the scheme. Provide confidence to Transport for Lancashire (and the Lancashire Local Enterprise Partnership) on the robustness of the promoter's approach to risk Optimise the effectiveness of approach to risk mitigation including understanding the balance between cost and efficacy of mitigation options available The table below shows the top five risks (by contribution) for the Blackpool Tramway North station extension that are in-scope for the QRA exercise. The QRA Report is shown in Appendix B. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

102 Table 5.4: Quantified Risk Assessment Key Risk Components Likelihood Impact on Cost Mitigation Measures The potential need for an additional sub-station to accommodate the increase in service frequency along the central section of the existing tramway 2 Works with cost that are not included Power study completed The potential for delays in the availability of the Wilkinson s site which is to be cleared by third parties The potential for statutory undertakers works to delay the delivery of the tramway infrastructure The potential for successful claims being made by the civil engineering contractor, beyond the allowance within the budget The potential that works on the Wilkinson s site cannot be completed within a single occupation because of interfaces with the hotel construction contractor Likelihood / Impact on Cost High Medium Low 3 Additional costs of reoccupying site and subdividing works 2 Delay and additional inflation costs 2 Additional cost of remobilising contractor 3 Costs being higher than estimated Engagement with relevant parties Engagement with statutory undertakers, prudent allowance in programme Robust contract, form of contract and contract management, prudent allowance in budget Engagement with relevant parties A Monte Carlo (Latin Hypercube) simulation of 10,000 iterations was used to generate an S curving showing risk cost against confidence level. The range of outcomes extended from 426,112 to 833,837 with a mean value of 625,498. The results of the analysis are shown graphically in the figure below and in the form of confidence intervals in the following table. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

103 Figure 5.1: QRA Graphical Risk Output (nominal prices) Table 5.5: CA QRA Confidence Intervals (nominal prices) Percentile Value Percentile Value 5% 535,837 55% 631,609 10% 555,773 60% 638,343 15% 568,374 65% 645,279 20% 578,758 70% 653,181 25% 587,728 75% 662,326 30% 596,194 80% 672,192 35% 603,669 85% 683,562 40% 610,912 90% 697,666 45% 617,565 95% 717,507 50% 624, The output of the analysis gives a 95% confidence interval that the cost of the project will not exceed a budget 718 thousand higher than the cost estimate. At this level the QRA allowance equates to around 3% of the cost estimate in nominal/outturn terms. In combination with the prudent uplift to construction and utilities costs made within the estimate, this equates to a total allowance of 2.02 million, 9% of the cost estimate in nominal/outturn terms Risk is also applied at 10% of the construction costs and 10% of the utilities costs (both based on the Project Manager s experience). Although it is considered that the scheme construction costs have been developed in a robust manner, this allows for unpredicted changes. The utility works are based on a C4 estimate an increased risk of 10% is applied to these costs Convention for Cost Benefit Appraisal (reported in section 4 of this document) is to use the median (50%) confidence that the cost of the project Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

104 will not exceed a budget 624 thousand higher than the cost estimate (including the prudent uplifts for construction and utilities costs) A breakdown of the scheme cost estimates is included in Appendix H. 5.6 Scheme Costs Adjusted for Risk The table below shows the costs from Table 5.3 with risk included. Table 5.6: Scheme Costs including Risk Category Estimate ( m, nominal) Construction Land and Property 0 Preparation and Administration 4.57 Supervision and Testing 5.54 Maintenance (Capital Costs) QRA 0.72 Total Preferred Funding Arrangements A total of million of capital is required to implement the scheme, of which million is eligible for Lancashire Enterprise Partnership funding in accordance with the criteria set out in its Accountability Framework for Transport At Programme Entry, Lancashire Enterprise Partnership allocated million of Growth Deal funding for the scheme, representing 72% of the eligible costs The LEP spend profile for the scheme is as follows: : 7.2m : 7.7m : 1.5m Total Spend: 16.4m A letter from Blackpool Council s Director of Resources and Statutory Finance (S151) Officer is attached as Appendix L to this business case The scheme operating costs are forecast to be fully covered by the additional revenues from operating the extension Maintenance of the scheme will be undertaken as part of the wider maintenance programme of the tramway (by BTS) and the highways authority (Blackpool Council). 5.8 Alternative Funding Arrangements There are no existing alternative funding arrangements that could fund the scheme. Without the LEP funding the scheme could not go ahead. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

105 5.9 Conclusion This Financial Case contains a full breakdown of the costs involved in building, operating and maintaining the Blackpool Tramway Extension. It includes the results of a comprehensive quantified risk assessment, and provides details of the funding arrangements in place to deliver the scheme The financial case for the scheme is strong. As detailed in the economic case, projected revenues for the operator are larger by a factor of 33% than the increased operating costs incurred as a result of the scheme, thereby improving the finances of the Tramway. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

106 6 The Commercial Case 6.1 Introduction The Commercial Case provides evidence on the commercial viability of a proposal and the procurement strategy that will be used to engage the market. It presents evidence on procurement, contracts, risk allocation and transfer, contract timescales and implementation timescale The Commercial Case is discussed under the following headings: Procurement Method Programme Implications and Risk Conclusion As an overview, since the submission of the OBC, the following has occurred: SCADA: Works commenced in May 2016 with progressive handover of substation operation and control in August Additional vehicles: Confirmation of the primary contract obligations for identical additional vehicles beyond the 16 vehicles from the previous tramway scheme. Delivery of vehicles expected in November and December Utilities works: Design work undertaken by utilities involved. Works are scheduled to commence in October 2017 and be completed by 31 March Civil engineering works: Invitation to Submit Final Tenders (ISFT) were returned on 18 September The preferred bidder has now been selected. 6.2 Procurement Method Context The Tramway is currently operated by Blackpool Transport Services Limited (BTS), a subsidiary of Blackpool Council. The majority of urban bus services in the Fylde Coast area are also operated by BTS The track, overhead line, electrical equipment and substations, adjacent land and buildings and the tramway section of the depot are leased by Blackpool Council to BTS. There is a maintenance agreement under which BTS is obliged to repair and maintain overhead line, electrical equipment, substations, and tram signalling. BTS make a charge to Blackpool Council for carrying out this work. BTS maintain the trams and the Starr Gate equipment at their own cost. Blackpool Council maintains the depot fabric and track. BTS is responsible for paying for the electricity supply. The track, tramstops and immediately adjacent roadway (known as the permanent way) is maintained by Blackpool Council's in house maintenance team. Scope of Works The scope of work provides for a double track extension of the tramway from North Pier to a terminus adjacent to Blackpool North Station. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

107 6.2.4 A number of utility services from a number of utility providers will require diversion or relocating as a result of the proposed works. The double track tramway alignment requires the construction of a new signalled crossing of The Promenade, to allow services to operate both northbound and southbound. On the eastern side of The Promenade, the reconstruction of Talbot Square will include a new north/south tram junction, a remodelling and reconstruction of the highway and the construction of a new eastbound tram stop. The double track alignment continues eastwards along Talbot Road resulting in full reconstruction of the highway, footpaths and highway infrastructure. A modified signal junction will be provided at the intersection of Talbot Road and Abingdon Street, and a new signalled junction at the intersection of Talbot Road and Topping Street A new terminus for North Station will be located on the site of the current Wilkinson s store. The works will also include the necessary electrical infrastructure, OLE and systems required to operate the tramway extension. In addition, through the desire to maintain the existing level of service between Starr Gate and Fleetwood Ferry, additional trams will be required to operate the services to North Station. Procurement Objectives The Promoter s strategy for procurement has been developed since the original strategy for the tramway upgrade was submitted to DfT for approval in This recognised that the circumstances of this Project are unique to Blackpool (i.e. currently operated by a wholly owned local authority subsidiary under existing leases, tramway as opposed to light rail technology) and with the requirements of affordability and transport integration in mind, to meet the following key objectives: Secure Value for Money over the whole life of the Project Optimise risk transfer to the private sector Mitigate any risk retained by the Promoters Ensure that the procurement option selected is time efficient Ensure there is a contractual mechanism allowing the Promoters to share any windfall gain received by the operator of the system Optimise service quality and performance by imposing service level obligations on the Tramway operator BTS Introduce commercial innovation and best practice as early as possible in the procurement process; and Ensure integration between tram services, train services and bus services in the locality, including through the use of multi modal ticketing schemes. Procurement Regulations The Public Contracts Regulations 2015 apply to the proposed works to extend the tramway from North Pier to North Station, in that the works will form part of a public procurement and contract and the likely value of the works, with reference to the Cost Report, is in excess of the current EU thresholds for works for public sector contracting authorities, as with Blackpool Council. The current threshold for works is 4,322,012. Therefore in relation to the procurement of the works, and the civil works in particular, for the proposed extension to North Station the process of procurement will follow the Public Contracts Regulations Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

108 Previous Experience Blackpool Council has gained significant experience in relation to both procurement of work for the Blackpool Tramway and also procurement of works in accordance with the EU Public Contracts Directives and the UK Public Contracts Regulations. The recent tramway schemes, funded by the Department for Transport, for the Emergency Works and Main Scheme Upgrade were subject to a detailed procurement strategy, which was approved by DfT All of the works were subject to a competitive procurement process in accordance with either the restricted procedure in respect of civil and building works, or competitive dialogue in respect of the supply of new vehicles. These are detailed below The Emergency Works procurement comprised three packages of works, which in summary consisted of: Contract 1 - replacement of 2.26km of track on the Central Promenade from Pleasure Beach loop to Central Pier and replacement of the junction at Foxhall Square Contract 2 - replacement of the existing substation and partial renewal of the electrical infrastructure between Thornton Gate and Fleetwood Contract 3 - reconstruction of approximately 2.6km of twin track between Gynn Square and Norbreck The Main Scheme Upgrade works procurement comprised three main packages of works, which in summary consisted of: Trackworks Contract design and build replacement of 8.1 km of twin track, construction of 14 signalled highway crossings/junctions, construction of 37 new tram stops, provision of tram detections and points control system and replacement of 4 km of fencing Depot Contract design and build construction of a new maintenance depot and tram stabling facility with associated track, OLE, substations, equipment and systems Vehicle Contract design, manufacture, delivery, testing and commissioning of 16 new low floor DDA compliant trams The above contracts and works represent a considerable wealth of experience, not just in relation to tramway works, but also to a process of procurement in accordance with the EU Public Contracts Directives and the UK Public Contracts Regulations All of the above works were subject to a detailed analysis and development of strategy in relation to the approach to procurement. To a certain degree, the success of any strategy is in the eventual outcome, and in this respect all of the above works were completed on time and on or under budget. This demonstrates a methodical and robust approach to the strategy for procurement and one that is reflected in the approach to be taken for the proposed works to extend the tramway from North Pier to Blackpool North Station. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

109 Procurement Strategy The November 2006 Procurement Strategy detailed that the Promoters would procure the main refurbishment of the Tramway on the basis of multiple design and build contracts. The procurement packages were developed so as to reduce risk and minimise the interfaces between the packages The number of packages were kept to a minimum for ease of management and to maximise the value. This in turn increased the attractiveness to the market and resulted in greater competition and reduced pricing levels The selection of the packages also considered the timing of the works and the specialist and diverse nature of them. The 2006 Procurement Strategy and supplemental updates proved to be effective, in that they resulted in the Emergency Works and Main Scheme Upgrade Works being delivered on time and on or under budget. In this respect the strategy for design and build construction contracts is proven and will be retained for the key works for the extension to Blackpool North Station It was therefore logical to combine all works associated with the track and highway into one package for the extension scheme. This included track construction, highway junctions and signalling, highway construction, tram stop construction and electrical infrastructure. The experience of the Emergency Works and Main Scheme Upgrade has shown that these elements of work are all within the scope of conventional civil engineering contractors. One complete package reduces the interface risk to the minimum possible and avoids potential additional cost and delay due to disruption The second package or series of packages relates to the proposed utility diversion works. Not only must these works be considered to be of a specialist nature, but the infrastructure requiring diversion is owned by the utility companies themselves. In this respect, orders have been placed directly with the individual utility company for the diversion work to be carried out themselves on their own infrastructure. Whilst the obligation to undertake these works could be placed on the civil engineering contractor, experience has shown the perceived level of risk for such works in the highway to be high. It is possible that the inclusion of the utility work could have reduced the attractiveness to the market, or distorted the level of pricing, or both. In addition, it is considered that any utility diversion work undertaken in advance of the main works, will reduce the potential for disruption and contract claims The third package is for the provision of new vehicles. The procurement process, conducted under the competitive dialogue procedure, resulted in the selection of Bombardier Transportation for the supply of the low floor trams, identical to those procured for the Main Scheme Upgrade works. The provision of additional vehicles is of such a specialist nature, that it could not have been included in a civils contract for track and highway works. Likewise, such manufacturers are generally not active in the field of construction The final package (now complete) was for the design and installation of the SCADA system replacement. This is a specialist discipline and is generally Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

110 beyond the experience and capability of civil engineering contractors. The works were of a critical nature and needed to be undertaken ahead of the main tramway extension works and to a different timeline. In this respect a separate procurement process was required. The works fell well below the EU threshold, so the process of procurement was relatively simple In summary, the contract packages are: Civils works - track construction, highway construction/reconstruction, provision of signalling and systems, construction of tram stops and provision of electrical infrastructure including OLE Utility diversion works individual packages with individual utility companies Tram Supply for the provision of additional trams SCADA system replacement and upgrade of the control system The length of the contracts are tied to the spend profile of the scheme. At the time of writing, the civils works will be from January 2018 to July The contract for the vehicles will be from April 2016 to December Utility diversion works will be contracted between October 2017 and March The payment of all contractors and consultants will be 30 days from the month end in which the cost is incurred. In addition a cumulative total is provided for the duration of the scheme. This provides an indication of spend within defined periods. Whilst it is accepted that until such time as Full Approval for the scheme is granted, the Promoter will pay all costs at risk, those costs identified in the spend profile, which are eligible and incurred prior to Full Approval and at the end of 2017 amount to 9.70m will be recoverable at the time of Full Approval in accordance with the conditions of grant. Form of Contracts Civil Engineering Construction NEC 3 Option A provides for a lump sum priced contract with an activity schedule. It is the form of contract within the NEC 3 suite which allows for the greatest outturn price certainty. It requires the Contractor to determine the exact scope of works, and quantify those elements of work, in accordance with the Contract and the works specification and criteria provided by the Promoter. In accordance with these requirements, the Contractor will provide a fixed price lump sum. It is considered that this is the appropriate form of contract for these works since the LEP funding is capped and any excess will be provided from local contributions. Again, this form of contract is not unusual for Contractors and given the knowledge of the market from the Emergency Works and Main Scheme Upgrade, this option has been used for the civil engineering works The NEC 3 lump sum design and build contract with specific amendments has proved to be robust in the context of works to the tramway and has undoubtedly helped to avoid construction related claims and ensure that previous works have been completed on time and on or under budget. Utility Diversion Works Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

111 A Mott MacDonald Technical Report 23 considered all known utility providers that operate and own infrastructure within the area of influence of the proposed extension. This included National Grid, BT Openreach, Virgin Media, Electricity North West and United Utilities. The technical report identified potential diversion/protection works resulting from the proposed extension works. However, whilst the preliminary diversion/protection works have been identified for the above utility providers, the infrastructure itself is owned by these providers and, therefore, any works cannot be subject to a competitive procurement process by Blackpool Council. As a result, the process for procuring any utility diversion/protection works was limited to the identification of the required works and the acceptance of a quotation by the particular utility company, under their own terms and conditions. Additional Vehicles The April 2009 supplemental update to the Main Scheme Upgrade procurement strategy 24 set out the process of procurement for the 16 new low floor trams required by the upgrade. The supplemental update confirmed the outcome of the vehicle procurement process, which announced the preferred bidder and subsequently Blackpool Council entered into a Contract (Tram Supply Agreement) with Bombardier Transportation Whilst all 16 vehicles have been in operation for a period of over three years, and in addition to the primary obligations above, the Tram Supply Agreement also provided options for the supply of additional vehicles, beyond the original 16. In addition the original OJEU Notice for the supply of trams also referred to an option (to be exercisable at the sole discretion of the Contracting Authorities) for the Contracting Authorities to subsequently procure additional trams from the successful candidate. These options are still in effect in accordance with the terms of the original Tram Supply Agreement. SCADA Replacements The SCADA replacement works are of relatively low value, but are subject to an element of design in relation to the electrical interfaces with each substation, and the existing control room. The works have been captured in a short form standard Blackpool Council contract for minor works. Procurement Procedure Details on procurement can be found in the Procurement Update Report of September Civils Works The value of the works is in excess of the current EU thresholds for works for public sector contracting authorities. Therefore, in relation to the procurement of the works, and the civils works in particular, the process of procurement 23 Fylde Coast Transport Study, Stage 2 Report Volume 1, Mott Macdonald, September Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Reconstruction Procurement Implementation Strategy Supplemental Update April 2009 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

112 has followed the 2014 EU Public Contracts Directive and the UK Public Contracts Regulations The new Public Contracts Directive provides for five award procedures, rather than the existing four: The open procedure, under which all those interested may respond to the advertisement in the OJEU by submitting a tender for the contract The restricted procedure, under which a selection is made of those who respond to the advertisement and only they are invited to submit a tender for the contract The competitive dialogue procedure, under which a selection is made of those who respond to the advertisement and the contracting authority enters into dialogue with potential bidders, to develop one or more suitable solutions for its requirements and on which chosen bidders will be invited to tender The competitive procedure with negotiation under which a selection is made of those who respond to the advertisement and only they are invited to submit an initial tender for the contract. The contracting authority may then open negotiations with the tenderers to seek improved offers. The new Public Contracts Directive provides greater freedom to use this procedure than the existing rules. The innovation partnership procedure, under which a selection is made of those who respond to the advertisement and the contracting authority uses a negotiated approach to invite suppliers to submit ideas to develop innovative works, supplies or services aimed at meeting a need for which there is no suitable existing product on the market. The contracting authority is allowed to award partnerships to more than one supplier Contracting authorities have a free choice between the open and restricted procedures. The competitive dialogue procedure and the competitive procedure with negotiation are available where certain criteria are met, including where the contract is complex or cannot be purchased off the shelf. The negotiated procedure without prior publication may only be used in the limited circumstances described in the Public Contracts Directive Contracting authorities using the restricted procedure, competitive dialogue procedure and the competitive procedure with negotiation must aim to select a number of suppliers sufficient to ensure genuine competition. Provided there are sufficient suitable candidates, the Public Contracts Directive requires a minimum of five for the restricted procedure, and three for competitive dialogue and competitive procedure with negotiation The Promoter has procured the civils works in accordance with the competitive procedure with negotiation A Notice was published in the Official Journal of the European Union (OJEU) on 21 March The notice briefly outlined the scope of the works and provided approximate timescales for the procurement process and delivery of the works. The notice advised that a pre-qualification process (Request to Participate) would be conducted prior to issuing tender documents In order to control and limit the number of candidates in the tender process, the Council published a pre qualification questionnaire, titled Request to Participate (RTP). Prospective candidates were required to complete and provide the information required, in order to determine the suitability and Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

113 experience of the candidates to undertake the works to the extension to North Station. The Request to Participate questionnaires were available to download from the Council s procurement portal, The Chest. The RTP questionnaires and supporting documentation were returned on 24 April The procurement of the civil engineering works was undertaken in accordance with the competitive procedure with negotiation. This required the first stage issue of the tender documents titled Invitation to Submit Initial Tender (ISIT). The ISIT was accompanied by a detailed Evaluation Matrix, with which the Council evaluated the submitted tenders The Council held a series of clarification meetings with each of the candidates, following which it was decided not to select a Preferred Bidder, but to enter into negotiation followed by a call for Final Tenders The Council decided to enter negotiations with all candidates and negotiation meetings were held during week commencing 21 August The aim of the negotiation meetings was to ensure that the tenders were fully aligned to the Works Contract and Works Information and to resolve any irregularities in the ISIT submission The Invitation to Submit Final Tenders (ISFT) was issued on 26 August Following a short clarification period, the ISFT tenders were returned on 18 September 2017.The Council evaluated the final tenders in accordance with an Evaluation Matrix developed for this process The Delivery Contract is being agreed with the Preferred Bidder. Utility Diversion Works Any diversion or protection works required to the utility services resulting from the proposed extension, could only be undertaken by the particular utility provider, who owned the actual infrastructure, for which any diversion or protection works were required. Blackpool Council, as the Promoter, has had little choice but to accept the estimate in line with the specific terms and therefore has entered into contracts on their terms and conditions with each of the utility companies relevant to the scheme. Vehicles Section to section of this Chapter provided information on the procurement process for the supply of new vehicles and confirmation of the primary contract obligations. It confirmed that both the original OJEU Notice for the supply of trams and the Tram Supply Agreement made provision for the supply of additional vehicles, beyond the original The purchase of the additional vehicles was undertaken as part of the options contained in the original tram supply contract. The order for the additional vehicles was confirmed in June This was followed by a process of validation of the design of the original vehicles to capture updates on the original design. In accordance with the terms of the original contract 85% of the cost of the vehicles was paid in advance. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

114 The vehicle manufacture is on schedule to allow completion and testing in Vienna prior to delivery to Blackpool in November and December SCADA The value of these works was considerably below the OJEU threshold and therefore it was not necessary to advertise the works in the European Journal or obtain at least 5 quotes Following the conclusion of the procurement process, the design and installation of the new SCADA system was undertaken through a NEC Option A, lump sum fixed price design and construct contract. This was awarded at the beginning of May 2016 with work beginning mid-may The new system commenced operation on the fibre cable in July, with a progressive hand over of substation operation and control onto the new system in August Operating and Maintenance Concession Responsibility for operation of the Tramway will continue to rest with BTS. This will ensure integration between tram services and bus services in the locality to an extent which would not be possible if the Tramway operations were to be separated from BTS' bus operations. Separation of such services would also give rise to practical problems. For example, the depot facilities are used by BTS for both tram and bus operations and BTS is able to use its personnel interchangeably between both business units in order to mitigate the effects of seasonal variations in Tramway operation. In this respect BTS will continue to operate the Tramway and also the proposed extension BTS are wholly owned by Blackpool Council. BTS are responsible for operating the tramway under an agreement with Blackpool and Lancashire Councils. BTS are responsible for the costs of operating the tram service, collecting fares and the maintenance of the trams and tramway systems. Any profits that BTS generate from operating the tramway service is returned to Blackpool Council in the form of a dividend The Promoter has taken detailed legal advice to ensure that the above contractual arrangements are in accordance with EU procurement and state aid law. 6.3 Programme Implications and Risk In determining the project programme, the Promoter has taken full account of any minimum timescales prescribed in the Procurement Regulations. Based on previous experience of the Promoter and their legal advisors, these timescales have been extended where appropriate to ensure deadlines are realistic and achievable. Overall, Blackpool Council is to take planning risk and Blackpool Transport Services is to take revenue risk The programme has been developed based upon information obtained from the market together with recent experience of similar works on the Blackpool tramway. This provided information on the construction durations and the manufacturing periods for the vehicles and specialist equipment. Additional information was also obtained on the appropriate durations for procurement. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

115 6.3.3 The timescales for the completion of the scheme are outlined in Table 6.1. Table 6.1: Scheme Development Timescales Stage Information Submission of January 2016 Conditional Approval Business Case Conditional Approval April 2016 Transport and Works The Council Executive Committee approved Act Order (TWAO) submission of the TWAO application on 20 June 2016, and the Full Council approved the submission of the TWAO application on 29 June Design and Investigation Procurement At the end of January 2016, a screening application was made to the Secretary of State in relation to the requirement to provide a full Environmental Impact Assessment for the proposed works. The response in March confirmed that it was not necessary to undertake a full Environmental Impact Assessment with the TWAO application. At the end of the statutory consultation period, which followed the application, the number of objections to the scheme was small, with a significant number of letters in support of the scheme. Due to the small number of objections, and the absence of any statutory objector, the Department for Transport confirmed that it would not be necessary to hold a public inquiry and the remaining objections could be dealt with by the written representation process. The response from the Department of Transport for the application is expected imminently. Completed in time for the commencement of the procurement process and to support the TWAO application. The Invitation to Submit Final Tenders for the civil engineering works were returned on 18 th September The Delivery Contract is being agreed with the Preferred Bidder. Full Approval This is currently programmed as December 2017 Works Utility diversions to be completed by 31 March Civil Engineering Works to be undertaken between April 2018 and July 2019, with works on the Promenade being programmed between November 2018 and February Scheme Opening July To better understand risk and approach to cost risk at Conditional Approval stage Quantitative Risk Assessment (CA QRA) workshop was undertaken Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

116 with Blackpool Council, Mott Macdonald and Steer Davies Gleave. The QRA was updated for this FBC to take account of the contemporary project context. The results of this are reported in the Financial Case section. The Management Case details the full process for risk management, which includes keeping a detailed risk register and risk management processes Information relating to programme risks and mitigation is outlined in section Conclusion Taking experience with the tramway refurbishment and upgrade, the use of design and build construction contracts have been used in the extension for the extension to North Pier The contract packages for the scheme are as follows: Civil engineering works - comprising track construction, highway construction/reconstruction, provision of signalling and systems, construction of tram stops and provision of electrical infrastructure including OLE; Utility diversion works individual packages with individual utility companies; Tram supply for the provision of additional trams SCADA system replacement and upgrade of the control system A preferred bidder has been selected to undertake the civil engineering works Responsibility for operation of the Tramway will continue to rest with BTS. This will ensure integration between tram services and bus services in the locality. The Promoters have taken detailed legal advice to ensure that the above contractual arrangements are in accordance with EU procurement and state aid law. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

117 7 The Management Case 7.1 Introduction The Management Case assesses whether a proposal is deliverable. It sets out the approach to project planning, governance structure, risk management, communications and stakeholder management, benefits realisation and assurance (e.g. a Gateway Review) The Management Case also sets out a plan to ensure that the benefits set out in the Economic Case are realised and will include measures to assess and evaluate these The Management Case is discussed under the following headings: Governance Assurance Delivery Programme Risk Management Communications and Stakeholder Management Monitoring and Evaluation Conclusion 7.2 Governance The Project Board is ultimately responsible for the project. It will manage the delivery of the project and will provide the approval and decision making authority for the project. The Board comprises people with a number of different backgrounds and specialisms as shown in Table The Project Board will provide the link to the Lancashire Enterprise Partnership and to the Elected Members and key stakeholders within Blackpool Council. The Project Board will operate with the highest levels of co-operation, trust, integrity and open communication, under the guidance of the Chair of the Board. All members of the Board will have equal status and will respect the views and allow the free expression of views from other Board members The Project Board will operate in parallel to the other existing Project Boards in Blackpool to ensure that the tramway extension to North Station is integrated into the overall Blackpool programme of works The Project Board is structured to provide guidance, support and direction for the project through the process of funding and approvals. It is envisaged that the role and composition of the Project Board will remain under continual review and is subject to change as the requirements of the project changes, particularly when the project moves from the FBC approval process to the delivery stage. The Project Board is composed of senior officers from Blackpool Council, the promoters and Blackpool Transport Services, the existing and potential future operators of the scheme. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

118 Table 7.1: Blackpool Tram Project Board Name Alan Cavill Cllr Gillian Campbell Cllr Fred Jackson Paul Grocott Jane Cole David Fish Gemma Duxbury Trevor Rayner Jeremy Walker Latif Patel Antony Hill Adam Ogden Position Director of Place Blackpool Council - Senior Responsible Owner for the Project and Chair of the Board Deputy Leader of the Council Elected Member for Victoria Ward Cabinet Member for Municipal Assets Senior User and Senior Supplier; Programme Manager for Blackpool Council - Responsible for the management of the project and delivery of the Business Case for funding and approval Managing Director Blackpool Transport Services Senior Accountant Blackpool Council Senior Accountant Blackpool Council Head of Procurement & Projectst Transport Policy Manager - Blackpool Council Senior Engineer Blackpool Council Project Manager Talbot Gateway Media Manager Blackpool Council Figure 7.1: Project Team Organogram 7.3 Assurance The following are outline dates for the Gateway Approvals for funding from the Lancashire LEP: Conditional Approval April 2016 TWAO Application July 2016 Full Approval December 2017 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

119 7.3.2 As part of the funding approval process, the Lancashire LEP employs an independent assurance advisor who assesses the business case and supporting information at each Gateway Approval. 7.4 Delivery Programme Methodology The Promoters have already established a successful strategy and approach to the planning and programming of works on the tramway, including the process of procurement, approvals and consents, and the delivery of the works The delivery programme has been developed to be effective, efficient and realistic. It reflects stipulated periods for TWAO and procurement, and construction periods from recent experience of similar works. The programme is based on a logical sequence of works that allow for some concurrent working and considers the potential for delays arising from the utility works and affecting the civil engineering works, and the nature of Blackpool itself, as a busy tourist resort and with the potential for disruption. Assumptions The development of the scheme programme is based upon information obtained from the market, together with recent experience of similar works on the Blackpool tramway. This has provided information on the procurement process, periods for approvals and consents, manufacturing periods for new vehicles and the likely construction durations for all elements of the works The duration of the works, through the approval process and subsequent delivery is largely dictated by the requirement to obtain powers under the Transport and Works Act. This has dictated a programme of almost four years, with almost two years for TWAO, six months for the completion of procurement and Full Approval, and 19 months for delivery. It is projected that the works will be complete in July Programme dependencies Dependencies for the scheme have been identified to ensure that critical issues are addressed at appropriate points within the project lifecycle. Granting of TWAO powers: An application for TWAO was made in June 2016 to the Secretary of State for Transport. A decision is expected in Q Wilkinson s Site Redevelopment: The redevelopment is contingent on both the development of the new Wilkinson s Store and the demolition/clearing of the existing site which will accommodate the tramway terminus. LEP granting Full Approval: The project programme assumes funding will be confirmed in December Critical Path The critical elements of the scheme programme are primarily those significant activities with the largest scope and longest duration. In the development phase the critical path has been related to the TWAO process, Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

120 whereby in the delivery phase the critical path follows the track and highway construction For the delivery phase, the critical path starts with the utility works and passes to the track and highway civil engineering works, before OLE installation and finally testing and commissioning. The critical path identifies a 5 month period for the utility diversion work and 19 months for the civil engineering works, including 3 months for design and 16 months for construction. The works are projected to be complete in April Key milestones The following are the key milestones for the scheme. Secretary of State decision: October 2017 Full Approval: December 2017 Scheme Opening: July 2019 Key issues likely to affect delivery and implementation of the scheme The main issue is that there is that a decision on the TWAO has not yet been confirmed. Any delay in the decision could affect the programme and thereby the budget A detailed scheme delivery programme is included in Appendix J. 7.5 Risk Management The risk strategy for the extension to North Station is to both reduce the risk to an acceptable and manageable level and/or transfer the risk through the procurement of specialist contractors The analysis of risk for the proposed extension to North Station has taken two forms: firstly, the Quantified Risk Assessment, which is a formalised review of high-level strategic risks as a requirement of the funding process, and secondly, the ongoing Risk Register, which has been used to capture all risks and define the strategy for mitigation. Previous Experience Blackpool Council has gained significant experience in developing and delivering a number of tramway related projects. In all of these projects the issue of risk was of prime importance, particularly when the funding process effectively provides a funding cap at Full Approval stage, and any overspend has to be met by the Promoter(s). This has required an approach which ensures delivery on time and within budget Blackpool Council developed a risk based approach to the development of contracts, to the process of procurement and evaluation, to the formulation of the programme and timescales, and to the delivery of the work. It is within the framework of the earlier successful projects that the strategy for risk management for the proposed tramway extension to North Station is founded. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

121 7.5.5 The following are projects successfully developed to time and on or under budget by Blackpool Council. All had applied a strategy for risk management The Emergency Works procurement comprised three packages of works, which in summary consisted of: Contract 1 design and construct NEC contract for the replacement of 2.26km of track on the Central Promenade from Pleasure Beach loop to Central Pier and replacement of the junction at Foxhall Square Contract 2 design and construct NEC contract for the replacement of the existing substation and partial renewal of the electrical infrastructure between Thornton Gate and Fleetwood Contract 3 design and construct NEC contract for the reconstruction of approximately 2.6km of twin track between Gynn Square and Norbreck The Major Scheme Upgrade procurement comprised three main packages of works, which in summary consisted of: Trackworks Contract design and construct NEC contract for the replacement of 8.1 km of twin track, construction of 14 signalled highway crossings/junctions, construction of 37 new tram stops, provision of tram detections and points control system and replacement of 4 km of fencing Depot Contract design and construct NEC contract for the construction of a new maintenance depot and tram stabling facility with associated track, OLE, new and upgraded substations, electrical equipment and systems Vehicle Contract contract for the design, manufacture, delivery, testing and commissioning of 16 new low floor DDA compliant trams Strategy The risk management strategy for the extension of the tramway from North Pier to Blackpool North Station has been specified to: Optimise risk transfer to the private sector Mitigate any risk retained by the promoter Follow the successful formula, strategies, procurement, and model contracts and templates from recent similar works This will be achieved through the process of procurement, the formulation of the contracts for the works and the development of the project timescales. However, this has to be done in a way which is acceptable to the market, which retains competition and avoids significant risk premiums being added during the tender process. In this respect, the experience gained by the promoter in recent times in respect of the market view of risk will be invaluable Notwithstanding this, it is appreciated that certain risks will be retained by the Promoter, particularly during the scheme development and funding period. With the exception of the Transport and Works Act Order (TWAO) process, the requirements and timescales for the scheme development period and for a tramway scheme in particular, are familiar to Blackpool Council. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

122 Scheme Development Period During the scheme development period the primary risks, principally in relation to timescales and cost, could not be transferred and rested with the promoter During the period to Full Approval of the scheme, the key activities within the scheme development have included obtaining the necessary powers under the Transport and Works Act, the procurement of the civil engineering works, the completion of the Full Approval Business Case and will also include the final approval of the scheme Cost increases related to the production of the business case have rested with the Promoter. Transport and Works Act Order (TWAO) The question of whether powers exist, or are required to be obtained, to construct and operate the proposed extension to North Station, was a risk to the scheme and this was outlined to the LEP in the early stages of this work On receiving advice from Queen s Counsel, Blackpool Council were advised to apply for a TWAO for the construction and operation of the extension to North Station. The Council duly engaged a Parliamentary Agent to provide guidance on the process and to make the application to the Secretary of State At the end of January 2016, a screening application was made to the Secretary of State in relation to the requirement to provide a full Environmental Impact Assessment for the proposed works. The response in March confirmed that it was not necessary to undertake a full Environmental Impact Assessment with the TWAO application The TWAO application was submitted to the Secretary of State on 13 June At the end of the statutory consultation period, which followed the application, the number of objections to the scheme was small, with a significant number of letters in support of the scheme. Due to the small number of objections, and the absence of any statutory objector, the Department for Transport confirmed that it would not be necessary to hold a public inquiry and the remaining objections could be dealt with by the written representation process. The written representation process concluded in December 2016, at which time only two objections remained The Council were originally advised that due to the small number of objectors and without the need to hold an inquiry, that the application could be assessed in 3 months, in line with the published guidance. However, it became apparent that, due to HS2, there was a backlog of TWAO applications. In order to put pressure on the assessment of the application, the Chief Executive of the Council wrote to the Secretary of State in August Shortly after, the lawyers acting on behalf of the Council were requested by DfT to agree some minor points of drafting in the Order, this was completed before the end of August. It is now envisaged that the final decision on the application will shortly be made. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

123 Procurement In determining the timescales for the procurement process, the Promoter has taken full account of the timescales dictated by the Procurement Regulations. This stipulates minimum periods for the market to respond to the pre-qualification and the various stages of the tender process. Whilst they are stated to be minimum requirements, through the experienced gained from other recent tramway procurement, some of the periods have been extended to reflect what the market will require in relation to a design and construct tender. For example the key tender period has been extended to 50 days. In addition, and whilst there is no stipulated period for evaluation by the Promoter, through experience gained, generous periods have been allowed for this process In terms of the timing of the procurement process, a Preferred Bidder has been selected and the contracting process is underway. In this respect, the programme risk in relation to procurement is low. Utility Works The utility diversion works represent a risk in relation to the timing of the works and the ability to complete within a given timescale. This is based on previous experience and the requirement to undertake the works on the terms and conditions provided by the utility companies themselves. These exclude any potential penalties for late completion, and the potential consequences, which places the risk on the Promoter. This element of work will require close management. However, in developing the scheme programme, the Promoter has recognised the potential for delay and has introduced mitigating measures in relation to sequencing the works from east to west, including a period of float at the end of the utility diversion period and avoiding concurrent working with the main civil engineering works. Civil Engineering Works In relation to the main civil engineering works, the Programme Strategy Report confirmed that the works are planned to commence following completion of the utility diversion works, in order to mitigate the effects of any late completion of the utility diversion works The outputs and durations achieved on similar previous works were used to develop the programme for the civil engineering works. This includes outputs for track and turnouts in the highway, highway works, signal junctions, tram stop works, OLE works and testing and commissioning. In addition and to further lessen the risk, the lowest outputs previously achieved were used to produce the programme and a one month terminal float period was allowed prior to completion. Nevertheless, the risk of programme slippage during the course of the works will rest with the Contractor(s), and the contract will provide for penalties, in the form of delay damages, to be levied in the event of delay. Sequencing and Logic The Promoter has developed a delivery programme sequence and logic which is designed to minimise disruption during the course of the works and also mitigate the effects of any delays. This primarily provides for Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

124 construction in an east to west direction, following on from the utility diversion works, but with sufficient float to allow for some delays. There should be little risk in this logic and sequence and to the extent that delays do occur, the sequence and logic is designed to minimise the effect The critical path for the overall scheme programme is set out in section 6 of the Programme Strategy Report Interface Risk By minimising the number of work packages, which includes the interface risk, and defining the key interfaces, particularly with respect to the existing tramway and systems, this problem has been significantly mitigated by the Promoter The primary interface risk will rest with the Contractor(s). The Promoter has a vested interest in ensuring the works progress as smoothly as possible. The Promoter will therefore support the risk mitigation process by hosting regular interface meetings. This strategy proved successful on the previous Major Scheme Upgrade works, whereby all parties were able to discuss and develop their designs and proposals through direct access and discussion. Network Rail The proposed extension from North Pier to North Station will bring the tramway closer to Network Rail infrastructure with the potential for interference, particularly in relation to systems such as signalling Whilst the proposed terminus is some distance away from the Network Rail infrastructure, and in order to understand any potential risk, which may give rise to an objection during the TWAO process, it was necessary to carry out a study to assess any potential effects. The assessment considered vehicles and electrification of the tramway, with the potential for stray currents, and similarly for the vehicles, signalling and other Network Rail infrastructure It was determined from the study that the risk is minimal, because the new Bombardier tram vehicles are fully certified against such interference, and historically the existing tramway infrastructure has not caused any such problems. Financial Risk Whilst the financial risk is low in relation to the standard scheme development activities, there is risk in the TWAO process, in that a decision is taking longer than anticipated and therefore could result in additional cost. This is considered in the Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) The Scheme Cost Report 25 confirms that a competitive procurement process had already been undertaken for the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) works and prices had been received, and the price for the additional vehicles is already fixed by the option clauses in the previous 25 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to North Station, Scheme Cost Report, September 2017, rev 07 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

125 contract. In this respect the financial risk for these elements of the scheme is low The main civil engineering work is being awarded on a fixed price, lump sum, design and construct basis. The detail of the pricing, selection and contract terms and conditions is contained in the Procurement Update Report The costs for the civil engineering works has been determined from a competitive procurement process on the basis of an NEC Option A fixed price lump sum contract. This provides a degree of cost certainty and includes any necessary inflationary costs for the proposed timescales There is potential for scope creep in relation to unknown services in relation to utility diversion works. Also, the prices received from the various utility companies used for budget purposes are subject to change once detailed quotations based on a firm scope are provided. These remain high risks, although the cost of utility diversions is a small percentage of the overall scheme cost. Quantified Risk Assessment (QRA) The top five risks associated with QRA include: The potential need for an additional sub-station to accommodate the increase in service frequency along the central section of the existing tramway The potential for delays in the availability of the Wilkinson s site which is to be cleared by third parties. The potential for statutory undertakers works to delay the delivery of the tramway infrastructure The potential for successful claims being made by the civil engineering contractor, beyond the allowance within the budget The potential that works on the Wilkinson s site cannot be completed within a single occupation because of interfaces with the hotel construction contractor Risk Management The strategy has been to either mitigate the risks on the project, or to transfer the risks through the contract terms and conditions, away from the Promoter. This strategy has proved to be successful on a number of recent tramway schemes of a similar nature. It is considered that through the successful delivery of these schemes, the Promoter has an understanding of the market and what will be acceptable to the market in terms of the risk profile and the terms and conditions of the works contract. In addition, the risk management strategy is also based on following the successful formula developed for previous tramway schemes; this has significantly reduced the risk profile on the proposed extension works Throughout the period since Programme Entry, a series of meetings with the project team and consultation with key stakeholders and key organisations such as Blackpool Councillors, BTS and Office for Rail and Road (ORR) has allowed any issues to be considered and the project risk to be reviewed in relation to the scope of the scheme. This has resulted in some changes to 26 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to North Station, Procurement Update Report, September 2017 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

126 the scope of the proposed scheme. However, it is considered that this process concluded with acceptance by the Project Board of the scheme proposed in the Conditional Approval submission The management of risk will be an ongoing process, with regular review at project and project board meetings, and meetings with the various contractor(s) and suppliers. All risks on the scheme are captured within the Risk Register, for ease of reference this includes all risks identified in the Quantified Risk Assessment. Each risk is identified by number and accompanied by a description of the risk and the consequence of the risk occurring. Each risk is also referenced to the appropriate QRA number. This risk is analysed and assessed, based upon the impact of probability, cost and time. Each category is assessed, prior to the implementation of any controls on mitigation measures, from the highest score of 5 definite, to the lowest score of zero. In addition, a prioritised score is given to each risk, this helps to concentrate on those items which will significantly affect the scheme If any risk is seen to be unacceptable, then certain steps need to be taken to control it or respond to it. Consequently, against each risk the controls or actions to minimise the likelihood of the loss event occurring and/or reducing the severity of the consequences should it occur, are identified. This strategy for mitigation is monitored and reviewed on a regular basis and updated or changed as necessary. In certain cases it is appropriate to identify further actions to reduce or remove the risk Each risk is allocated a specific owner and a date agreed for either the control measures to be implemented or the risk removed, the confirmation of completion, as appropriate, is also identified As part of the procurement process and tender evaluation for the civil engineering works, each of the candidates were requested to identify key risks which may have an impact on the successful performance of the Works. The Candidates were requested to submit their proposals to minimise the likelihood of such risks arising and mitigate the impact that such risks may have. Whilst the significant risks would, through the contract terms and conditions, be transferred to the preferred bidder, it is important to understand the approach to risk and the strength, or otherwise, of their procedures and offer. This is a process which was successfully adopted in previous procurement exercises and the risk assessment already exists for the additional vehicles from the previous procurement process. Risk Review and Reporting The review and consideration of risk has formed a key part of the scheme development phase. This was particularly important in relation to the TWAO and procurement processes. It has required a regular review of risks with the various specialists, consultants and advisors particularly at the key stages of the process Following the award of the contract(s) for tramway extension works, each of the successful candidates, together with the utility companies and Bombardier Transportation, will be invited to attend a risk workshop. This will clearly identify the risks relating to the individual works and also the interface risk between those works. Each candidate will be required to produce a Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

127 contingency plan which identifies and prioritises each risk, identifies the owner of the risk, and confirms the control strategy or mitigation plan. Whilst the current status of risk will be reported at each formal progress or team meeting, at strategic points in the development of the scheme, further risk workshops will be held The Risk Register is a live document and as such will be the subject of continual review. The review of risk will be included as an item on the agenda of all Project Team meetings, the current status of any issues will be reported at these meetings. Headline or critical risks will be reported in the appropriate manner to the Project Board In addition to the regular review of the Risk Register, at appropriate times throughout the construction process, a formalised review of high-level strategic risks will be undertaken in the form of the QRA Risk Workshop. A record of each review and update is maintained. The initial CA QRA workshop took place in November 2015 with an additional review for the FBC in September It is anticipated that the identification of issues or risk associated with the project can be both formal and informal and from both within the team or from stakeholders to the team. However, in order to affect control of the Risk Register document, all risks will be forwarded to the Project Manager for entry onto the Register. The registers will be circulated to the project team as they are updated and before any team or progress meeting. 7.6 Communication and Stakeholder Management The proposed scheme to extend the tramway from North Pier to North Station will create a new alignment and infrastructure. The proposed route along an existing highway, with proposed changes to the highway, and through a residential and business district will affect a wide range of individuals, groups and companies, identified as stakeholders The aim of Communications and Stakeholder Management is to make available the information that stakeholders require in order to understand and contribute to the scheme to extend the Blackpool Tramway from North Pier to North Station. The approach put forward delivers procedures and practices to enable a two-way flow of information that is transparent and accountable The Stakeholder Management Plan describes the strategy to make available information that stakeholders require in order to understand and contribute to the project to extend the Blackpool Tramway. The strategy identifies procedures and practices to enable a two-way flow of information that is transparent and accountable The Communication Strategy for the Tramway Extension identifies the key stakeholders and the process of communication, to support the Stakeholder Management Plan. A report summarising consultation undertaken (TWAO document A5) provides the detail of the stakeholder engagement outcomes. Stakeholder Management Plan The objectives of the stakeholder engagement were as follows: Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

128 1. To participate and obtain the opinions of stakeholders to shape and contribute to the scheme 2. To raise awareness of the scheme, the likely impacts and the benefits that the scheme will bring 3. To build support for the scheme within the Blackpool community and promote participation in the successful implementation of the project. 4. To ensure that effective consultation and feedback to stakeholders continues throughout all stages of the project 5. To communicate the current project status and forward planning. 6. To identify and meet any particular needs. 7. To minimise resources, costs and potential delays through early engagement and resolution of issues. 8. To provide effective community liaison during the delivery phase. 9. To make available the information that stakeholders need to understand the project, and to contribute to it so as to derive the benefits originally foreseen by the tramway project business case Table 7.2 shows the following key stakeholder groups were identified for the scheme: Table 7.2: Identified Stakeholder Groups Authorities Vendors Wider Community Department for Transport Business Leaders Highway Consultative Forum Lancashire Enterprise Blackpool Improvement General Public Partnership District Blackpool Council Talbot Road Businesses Residents Associations Blackpool Transport Muse Developments Press Services Office of Rail Regulation Chamber of Commerce Independent Competent person Train Operating Companies Network Rail Bus Operators Lancashire County Hotel Associations Council Wyre Council Leisure Companies Fylde Council Taxi Companies Disability Interest Groups Statutory (Utility) Authorities Police Fire Ambulance With the stakeholders defined, the Strategy looked to the following: Analyse the needs to the stakeholders identifying the communication needs of each target audience Identify the communication channels defining the best methods for information dissemination appropriated to each audience Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

129 Determine the information to be provided the information requirements of the stakeholders are collated and assessed together with the available communication media and available resources. Develop approach for ongoing dissemination of information Stakeholder Events The following table outlines the communications and meetings held with stakeholders. Table 7.3: Consultation to Date Stakeholder Dates of Meetings Held and Notes Taken LEP Initial Meeting 17/09/2015 Subsequent Meeting 02/11/2015 HMRI/ORR 03/09/2015 Blackpool Council Deputy Leader 02/10/2015 of the Council And Cabinet Member for Municipal Assets Project Board 25/08/ /10/ /12/ /12/ /02/ /04/ /06/ /07/ /08/ /10/ /12/ /01/ /02/ /04/ /05/ /07/ /08/2017 Future meetings will take place on a regular 4/6 week timescale Lancashire County Council 01/10/2015 Blackpool Transport Services 23/07/ /09/ /09/ /11/2015 Network Rail 23/09/2015 Train Operating Companies, 24/09/2015 Northern Rail, Transpennine Express and Virgin Trains Muse Developments 05/08/2015 Council Members (all parties) 26/11/2015 7/12/ /02/2015 Communication issued 13/04/2016 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

130 Stakeholder Dates of Meetings Held and Notes Taken Briefings and consultation with local MPs on 15/04/2016 and 13/04/2015 Utility Companies November 2015 and February 2016 TWAO Consultation 13/07/16 to 26/08/16 Council Resolutions 29/06/16 and 23/11/ As a result of the meetings with stakeholders, it was possible to understand opinions about the scheme. These were as follows: Councillor Gillian Campbell and Councillor Fred Jackson: A positive response to the scheme with Councillor Campbell noting that the Yates s site redevelopment needed to be considered. Network Rail: No major issues raised but further discussion required with the Network Rail signalling and electrification teams to identify possible issues. Office of Road and Rail Regulation: No concerns about the scheme with regards to an additional stop, no EMC issues, no issues on proposed location of the terminus Rail Operators (Virgin Trains First Group and Northern Rail): Operators did not see any disbenefits with the scheme and happy for it to go ahead Sainsbury s: Did not see that there would be a need for Sainsbury s to object to the proposals Additionally, attention was given to stakeholders likely to or perceived to likely to suffer negative consequences as a result of the scheme. These included businesses situated on Talbot Road who may have been concerned about disruption during the works and local taxi firms operating from Blackpool North Station, who may have been concerned about any potential changes to the transport system Each stakeholder group required a different approach to how they were informed and engaged with the project. This is outlined within the Communications Strategy and Communications Plan (2015) and the report summarising consultation undertaken (TWAO Document A5) To support the engagement with stakeholders, a consultation brochure was produced to support future public exhibitions in the town for the scheme. An article in the March 2015 edition of Your Blackpool were sent to households in Blackpool to inform them of the scheme and invite them to provide views via an online questionnaire regarding the scheme The TWAO process allowed an opportunity for businesses and residents to formally submit their views on the scheme to the Department of Transport (DfT), for these purposes entirely independent from the promoter, over a six week period. The written representations process adopted by DfT provided an opportunity for individuals or organisations to provide information in support of objections or letters of support (received within the objection period) and for Blackpool Council to respond Ongoing consultation is planned through quarterly meetings with the LEP, HMRI/ORR, Peter Howarth (independent Competent Person), LCC, Wyre Council and Fylde Council, local MPs, Network Rail, Northern Rail, TPE and PFI signals. Bi-monthly meetings are planned with Blackpool Council, Ward Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

131 Councillors and Muse Developments. Monthly meetings with the Project Board, BTS and the Contractor are also planned. 7.7 Monitoring and Evaluation This section provides information on two mandatory processes for reviewing the success of the scheme: Monitoring and Evaluation Plan: Used to demonstrate that the processes, costs and governance, physical infrastructure, and benefits of a scheme have been delivered and scheme objectives are met. Understanding the effects of a project provides useful evidence to support the development of future transport schemes. This is demonstrated through the collation of data and comparing it to targets, forecasts and estimates that are set by the scheme promoters throughout a scheme s development. Benefits Realisation Profile: The intended benefits (or disbenefits) of a scheme are revealed as outputs, outcomes (immediate and mature) and impacts. These are logged, tracked and allocated an owner in the Benefits Realisation Profile The Plan has been prepared in line with the guidance provided by the LEP Growth Deal Monitoring and Evaluation Framework, May 2016 which provides a number of core metrics to monitor all schemes delivered as part of the Growth Deal Programme. The Plan is available separately to the Business Case. Scheme Effects The DfT guidance on Monitoring and Evaluation 27 makes reference to inputs, output, outcomes and impacts as part of the Monitoring and Evaluation process. These have been interpreted for the application to this scheme as follows: Inputs These are the elements that contribute to establishing the scheme: resources, processes, contracts and governance Examples of inputs include: delivery contract, development resources, implementation resources Outputs These are results of the scheme: infrastructure, new services, changes to the environment. They can be temporary (as with construction) or permanent (from delivery of the scheme) Examples of outputs include: traffic impacts from construction, tram infrastructure and tram service changes. 27 Local Authority Major Schemes Monitoring and Evaluation Framework and Draft Local Authority Major Schemes Evaluation Best Practice Guidance Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

132 Outcomes There are two levels of outcomes commensurate with the reporting strategy for M&E of one year and five years after opening. The outcomes are largely the elements which can be revealed through monitoring data Immediate outcomes (measurable by the end of year 1) are divided into occurring by the presence of the scheme or from use of the scheme. These include elements such as improved transport integration and tram revenue Mature outcomes (measurable by the end of year 5) are outcomes which take longer to be exposed. They are separated as occurring by the presence of the scheme or from use of the scheme. Examples of mature outcomes include more integrated networks and user benefits. Impacts Impacts are long-term effects. They occur beyond five years after opening. The impacts have been developed to align to the objectives and to each of the three arguments justifying the need for the scheme. For example, the objective of Promote quality of life through a safe and healthy built and natural environment will result in impact including improved air quality, improved road safety and a positive perception of personal security. Evaluation Approach A logic map for the scheme has been drafted in line with the DfT guidance. This shows the linkages between inputs, outputs, outcomes and impacts. It is the basis to drafting the Monitoring and Evaluation Plan as well as the Benefits Realisation Profile. The logic map is shown as Figure The scheme has been evaluated to be constant with the requirements of the LEP guidance as a minimum A sum of 75,000 (nominal values) Blackpool Council costs in the appraisal model has been allocated to the Monitoring and Evaluation process. The separate Monitoring and Evaluation Plan contains details of the cost breakdown A Benefits Realisation Plan has been produced alongside the M&E report. This is a live document to track the benefits of the scheme over the M&E reporting timescales of one year after opening and five years after opening The scheme is expected to generate a range of benefits which align to the strategic case for the scheme and also to the wider policies which affect the outlook of the town such as the SEP. Indicatively, these include: Increased number of journeys via public transport for local people particularly as a mode to access jobs and services within Blackpool and beyond in the North West region. Improved accessibility with public transport to jobs and services for local people Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

133 Increased number of tourists to Blackpool who would otherwise travel elsewhere Reduced time for people to reach tourist destinations making Blackpool by public transport more attractive to tourists and contributing to a strong visitor economy Time savings for tourists and visitors who already come to Blackpool A reduction in transport s emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases by contributing to wider carbon reduction and mode shift policies for the authorities making up the Fylde Coast sub-region Increased spend in the Blackpool economy at shops, restaurants and tourist attractions Positive contributions to the delivery of wider employment opportunities to the town. Figure 7.2: Logic Map Table 7.4 outlines a number of indicative metrics which are collated as part of the Monitoring and Evaluation Report and Benefits Realisation Profile to gain insight into the success of the scheme. These have been aligned to the measures of success in the logic map. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

134 Table 7.4: Current Indicative Benefits Realisation Metrics Measure of Success Metric to be Collected Frequency of Metric Collection Implementation resources Inputs Implementation Funding Quarterly resources breakdown Implementation In-kind resources Quarterly Outputs Mature Outcomes Impacts 7.8 Conclusion resources Tram infrastructure provision, alterations to urban realm, improvements to active modes facilities, alterations to highway Tram service changes User and nonuser benefits Mode shift from highway Mode shift from highway Enhanced quality of life through improved air quality, improved road safety and positive perception of personal security Collection Methodology Expenditure Quarterly Financial Reporting Financial Reporting Financial provided Reporting Type of Annually Measured infrastructure Type of service improvement Annually Measured Average AM and Annually Traffic PM peak journey counters time on key routes (journey time measurement) Annual average Annually Operator daily and peak data hour passenger boardings Bus/light rail Annually Operator travel time by data peak period Accident Rate Annually Police reports Casualty Rate Annually Police reports Nitrogen Oxide and particulate emissions Annually Town centre monitoring tubes in place The Management Case assesses whether a proposal is deliverable. It tests the project planning, governance structure, risk management, communications and stakeholder management, benefits realisation and assurance (e.g. a Gateway Review). Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

135 7.8.2 The Project Board, is ultimately responsible for the project, it will manage the delivery of the project and will provide the approval and decision making authority for the project The Project Board will provide the link to the Lancashire Enterprise Partnership and to the Elected Members and key stakeholders within Blackpool Council The Project Board will also operate in parallel to the other existing Project Boards in Blackpool to ensure that the tramway extension to North Station is integrated into the overall Blackpool programme of works The risk strategy for the extension of the Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway from North Pier to North Station is to both reduce the risk to an acceptable and manageable level and/or transfer the risk through the procurement of specialist contractors The analysis of risk for the proposed extension to North Station will take two forms; firstly the Quantified Risk Assessment, which is a formalised review of high-level strategic risks as a requirement of the funding process, and secondly the ongoing Risk Register, which is used to capture all risks and define the strategy for mitigation The proposed scheme to extend the tramway from North Pier to North Station will create a new alignment and infrastructure. The proposed route along an existing highway, with proposed changes to the highway, and through a residential and business district will affect a wide range of individuals, groups and companies, identified as stakeholders The Stakeholder Management Plan describes the strategy to make available information that stakeholders require in order to understand and contribute to the project to extend the Blackpool Tramway. The strategy identifies procedures and practices to enable a two-way flow of information that is transparent and accountable The Communication Strategy for the Tramway Extension identifies the key stakeholders and the process of communication, to support the Stakeholder Management Plan. The Communications Plan which is appended to the Communications Strategy identifies the timing, method and frequency of communication to stakeholders across the funding, approval and construction phases A logic map for the Monitoring and Evaluation process has been established. This is the basis to the Monitoring Evaluation Plan and accompanying Benefits Realisation Profile which have been produced for the scheme, guided by the LEP framework for Monitoring and Evaluation. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

136 8 Summary and Conclusions 8.1 Summary and Conclusions A summary of the performance of the Preferred Option against each of the five cases follows The Strategic Case for the scheme is strong: The Need for Intervention is clear: three key types of movement which are important to the economy of Blackpool and the wider Lancashire region are currently constrained by the lack of integration between the rail and tram systems. o Inward movement of tourists to Blackpool from regional and national origins o The two-way movement of local residents between the North West o and Blackpool for work and leisure and services The internal movement of people between jobs and services and residential areas within Blackpool Improving the integration by extending the tramway to Blackpool North Station will enable and contribute to an increase in economic growth in the area. The Preferred Option was identified through a comprehensive option generation and selection process, assessed qualitatively against the scheme objectives and quantitatively against the potential economic case. The Preferred Option has been refined to respond to changes in the context of the area (including the CBD development and patronage growth on the tramway) and also to remove a disbenefit to some existing passengers that was introduced by the previously developed option. The Preferred Option is aligned with the relevant local, regional and national policy. A Lower Cost Alternative option has been developed as an appropriate comparator case. This utilises the new trams which have been purchased in advance but provides a limited improvement in accessibility on the seafront only and no improvement in connectivity to Blackpool North station or the town centre. Stakeholder support for the scheme is strong; from the public, to businesses, politicians and the relevant transport operators (Network Rail, Virgin Trains First Group and Northern Rail, and BTS). The scheme has strong synergies with other developments occurring in the area The Economic Case for the scheme is strong, with the analysis presented showing that it represents High Value for Money. The analysis undertaken at this stage does not present any significant downside uncertainties with regards to the outcomes assessed. The scheme drives significant user time benefits, which outweigh the associated user charges. The operator revenue generated over the scheme appraisal period is nearly 33% more than the operating costs, indicating a positive overall operating position. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

137 Sensitivity testing has been undertaken, and this has contributed to the high level of confidence which can be had in the assessment that the scheme delivers High Value for Money, with all but two of the down-side sensitivities reporting BCRs in excess of The Financial Case for the scheme is strong. As detailed in the economic case, projected revenues for the operator are larger by a factor of 33% than the increased operating costs incurred as a result of the scheme, thereby forecast to improve the finances of the Tramway. With Lancashire Enterprise Partnership funding the scheme is affordable The Commercial Case for the scheme is strong. The contracting and procurement approach is proven in the local context of the successful tramway upgrade and other works done to the tramway over recent years. The procurement process has been undertaken and the Delivery Contract is being agreed with the Preferred Bidder The Management Case for the scheme is strong. The project team, governance arrangements and the various management plans and strategies including the detailed approach to risk management - are appropriate and demonstrate a high level of control The Preferred Option will make a larger contribution to delivering the scheme objectives than the Lower Cost Alternative Option, and also delivers significantly better value for money. The Lower Cost Alternative Option does deliver some benefit but only to passengers wishing to use the existing tramway; it does not provide improved accessibility or connectivity to Blackpool North station or the town centre and does not provide any wider economic benefit to the area The Preferred Option should be progressed with Full Funding Approval from the LEP. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

138 Appendix A Scheme Drawings Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

139 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

140 Appendix B QRA Report Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

141 Blackpool North Tramway Extension - Quantified Risk Assessment Blackpool Council Report October 2017 Our ref:

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143 Blackpool North Tramway Extension - Quantified Risk Assessment Blackpool Council Report October 2017 Our ref: Prepared by: Prepared for: Steer Davies Gleave 67 Albion Street Leeds LS1 5AA Blackpool Council PO Box 4 Blackpool FY1 1NA Steer Davies Gleave has prepared this material for Blackpool Council. This material may only be used within the context and scope for which Steer Davies Gleave has prepared it and may not be relied upon in part or whole by any third party or be used for any other purpose. Any person choosing to use any part of this material without the express and written permission of Steer Davies Gleave shall be deemed to confirm their agreement to indemnify Steer Davies Gleave for all loss or damage resulting therefrom. Steer Davies Gleave has prepared this material using professional practices and procedures using information available to it at the time and as such any new information could alter the validity of the results and conclusions made.

144 Contents 1 Introduction... 1 Background... 1 Proposed Scheme... 1 Report Structure Background to FA QRA... 3 Objectives of QRA... 3 Risk Identification Process... 3 Risk Categorisation Methodology and Results... 5 Risk Exposure... 5 Methodology... 5 FA QRA Results Conclusions... 8 Key Risks... 8 Figures Figure 3.1: FA QRA Graphical Risk Output... 6 Tables Table 2.1: Impact Categories... 4 Table 2.2: Likelihood Categories... 4 Table 3.1: Risk Exposure Matrix... 5 Table 3.2: FA QRA Confidence Intervals... 6 Appendices A B QRA Workshop Materials FA QRA Risk Register October 2017

145 1 Introduction Background 1.1 This report sets out details of the Full Approval stage Quantitative Risk Assessment (FA QRA) undertaken on behalf of Blackpool Council for its proposal to extend the Blackpool and Fylde Coast Tramway to Blackpool North (national rail) Station. Funding for the Blackpool North Tramway Extension Scheme is being sought from Lancashire Enterprise Partnership Growth Deal, administered by the Transport for Lancashire Committee for transport schemes. 1.2 The scheme is included within the Lancashire Strategic Partnership Prospectus; Full Approval, the next and final funding gateway, is sought to allow the construction contract to be executed, allowing implementation of the infrastructure which connects the existing tramway and Blackpool North station. 1.3 The FA QRA sets out to represent the risk exposure of Blackpool Council, the lead promoter of the scheme, specific to the current stage of project development and the Transport for Lancashire funding approval process and funding conditions. The FA QRA represents an update and refresh of the QRA exercise which supported the successful application for Conditional Approval in early Proposed Scheme 1.4 The Blackpool North Tramway Extension will extend the current tramway from the existing North Pier tram stop, on the Promenade, approximately 550 metres along Talbot Road to Blackpool North Station. The extension will be double track formation with overhead electrification and stops at Talbot Square and Blackpool North. 1.5 Under the proposal no third party land or property is anticipated to be required for the scheme, however allowances have been made within the budget to relocate statutory undertakers equipment where it conflicts with track works. To secure delivery of the proposed extension on programme, statutory undertakers works have been commissioned (to an agreed budget) in advance of Full Approval. 1.6 Associated highway improvements will be made to allow control of tram services and existing road vehicles and pedestrians. These include upgrades to existing traffic signal control junctions and additional traffic signal installations at junctions along Talbot Road. 1.7 Two additional vehicles are required to enable operation of a maximum (high season) service of six trams per hour per direction to and from North Station, while maintaining the service frequency along the existing route to the current peak (maximum) service of six trams per hour per direction. To secure best value, an order for the two vehicles has already been made, exercising an option included in the vehicle supply contract from the previous upgrade (which would otherwise have expired before full approval). October

146 1.8 The opportunity of replacing the life-expired SCADA 1 communication system during the same construction period is also included within the proposal. These works have been completed. 1.9 A Transport and Works Act Order (TWAO) application is required to secure the legal powers to construct and operate the new section of tramway. Additionally, consents from third parties for example from Network Rail are anticipated to be required. Report Structure 1.10 The remainder of this report has been structured as follows: Section 2 sets out the background to the FA QRA and the process undertaken Section 3 presents the results of the FA QRA Section 4 draws conclusions on the results of the FA QRA 1.11 The Agenda for the QRA FA and CA workshops and prompt sheet provided to attendants forms Appendix A to this report. The FA QRA Risk Register is provided as Appendix B to this report. 1 Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition October

147 2 Background to FA QRA Objectives of QRA 2.1 The key objectives of the Blackpool North Tramway Extension FA QRA process were to: allow the promoter to value its exposure to capital cost risk and to make an appropriate allowance in the budget for the scheme provide confidence to Transport for Lancashire (and the Lancashire Local Enterprise Partnership) on the robustness of the promoter s approach to risk optimise the effectiveness of approach to risk mitigation including understanding the balance between cost and efficacy of mitigation options available Risk Identification Process 2.2 A QRA update workshop was held at Steer Davies Gleave s office on 22 September The workshop 2 was attended by: Paul Grocott (project manager) Blackpool Council Steve Hunter (QRA facilitator) Steer Davies Gleave Jon Peters (workshop chair) Steer Davies Gleave Felicity Pike Steer Davies Gleave 2.3 The original QRA workshop 2 was held at the Blackpool and Fylde Coast Tramway Starr Gate Depot on 18 November 2015, and was attended by: Paul Grocott (project manager) Blackpool Council Jeremy Walker Blackpool Council Rob Park Mott MacDonald Andy Parkes Mott MacDonald Steve Hunter (QRA facilitator) Steer Davies Gleave Jon Peters (workshop chair) Steer Davies Gleave 2.4 The QRA process was explained to participants in advance of the risk identification exercises. Of particular note were that: The exercise was restricted to cost risk and did not consider the potential effect of risk on delivery programme. Risks which would result in delay only (and no additional cost) were not included within the exercise; risks which would result in delay and additional cost (for example through inflation) where included however. The Approval decision event is assumed to be the effective date for the QRA. Risks around the availability of funding (and other show-stopper risks) were not included within the exercise The valuation of costs was undertaken in nominal (that is, including inflation) terms. Therefore no inflation or escalation is required to be added to QRA results 2.5 The CA QRA risk assessment formed the basis for the FA QRA exercise, cross-checked against the latest overall scheme risk register. Risks that were in-scope for the exercise (in line with the above bullets) were included within the assessment. Opportunities to combine risks which overlapped or otherwise had similar characteristics were taken where appropriate and 2 Materials from the FA and CA QRA Risk Workshops can be found at Appendix A October

148 additional risks were included where gaps were identified. For each risk the QRA Risk Register records: Cause, risk and effect Proximity (the stage by which the risk will have passed) Risk owner Mitigation actions Impact and likelihood 2.6 The resulting FA QRA Risk Register (Appendix B) contains the thirteen active, from twenty-two total (twenty of each at CA), risks which were agreed at the workshop to represent Blackpool Council s capital cost exposure in respect of the Blackpool North Tramway Extension Scheme. Risk Categorisation 2.7 The risks identified were categorised by potential impact (Table 2.1) and likelihood (Table 2.2). The extents of the bands were carried forward from the CA QRA exercises, given a high level of consistency between the scale of capital costs estimated for the project at that stage and the costs at Full Approval. The categorisation assumes that the mitigation measures identified are successfully implemented and represents the potential for the cost of an identified risk to exceed the allowance made in the budget. It is noted in the case of construction and utilities costs, with a higher level of cost uncertainty, the cost estimate has been prudently uplifted 3 ; the FA QRA represents the risk of this uplift not being sufficient, that is the risk of the outturn cost exceeding the uplifted budget. In all cases the bandings proved suitable for allocating the relevant risks identified for the project. Table 2.1: Impact Categories Impact Band Minimum Mid-Point Maximum 1 75, , , , , , , , , , ,000 1,199, ,200,000 1,800,000 2,399,999 Table 2.2: Likelihood Categories Likelihood Band Minimum Mid-Point Maximum 1 0% 0% 0% 2 0% 10% 19% 3 20% 30% 39% 4 40% 50% 59% 5 60% 70% 79% 2.8 The overall evaluation of risk is based on project characteristics, the knowledge and experience of the promoter s team and its advisors. It is assumed that the project will be carried out in accordance with good practice and will meet all regulatory requirements. 3 Construction cost by 10% and utilities cost by 10% October

149 3 Methodology and Results Risk Exposure 3.1 Table 3.1 presents the overall pattern of probability/cost impacts against the mapping of Red Amber Green status (where Red represents the risks to which most attention should be given). The allocation of combinations of Impact and Likelihood to Red, Amber or Green was derived from the rank order of the band mid-point values set out in Table 2.1 and Table 2.2. The figures represent the number of risks for each probability/impact combination. Figures in brackets show the exposure at Conditional Approval, where different. Table 3.1: Risk Exposure Matrix Impact Band Likelihood Band (1) (6) 2 (3) 1 (0) 0 (1) (6) 1 (0) In total two (three at CA) risks were allocated to Amber impact/likelihood combinations and thirteen (seventeen at CA) to Green. This reflects the characteristics of the modest tramway extension proposal, at an advanced state of development, delivered within a site which is within the promoter s control, with strong recent market experience of delivering similar projects and a deliberately prudent approach to cost estimation. Methodology 3.3 Quantitative analysis was carried out using ModelRisk, industry standard risk analysis software. A normal distribution (band minimum = 5th percentile, band maximum = 95 percentile, truncated at zero) was specified for impact, effectively allowing the cost impact to exceed the expected range (at low probability) rather than effectively being capped. A pert distribution (band minimum, most likely, maximum) distribution was used for likelihood. The pert function gives a shape similar to a normal distribution, but which intercepts zero at the defined minimum and maximum band extents. 3.4 The key output from the FA QRA is the sum across the individual totals of impact multiplied by likelihood and illustrates the level of confidence which, based on the risks identified, the promoter can have that the cost of the project will not exceed a particular budget (including the risk allowance). FA QRA Results 3.5 A Monte Carlo (Latin Hypercube) simulation of 10,000 iterations was used to generate an S curve showing risk cost against confidence level. The range of outcomes extended from October

150 426,112 to 833,837 with a mean value of 625, The results of the analysis are shown graphically in Figure 3.1 and, in the form of confidence intervals, as Table 3.2. Figure 3.1: FA QRA Graphical Risk Output Table 3.2: FA QRA Confidence Intervals Percentile Value Percentile Value 5% 535,837 55% 631,609 10% 555,773 60% 638,343 15% 568,374 65% 645,279 20% 578,758 70% 653,181 25% 587,728 75% 662,326 30% 596,194 80% 672,192 35% 603,669 85% 683,562 40% 610,912 90% 697,666 45% 617,565 95% 717,507 50% 624, The output of the analysis shows a 95% confidence level that the cost of the project will not exceed a budget 718 thousand 5 higher than the cost estimate including direct risk uplifts on 4 The range at Conditional Approval was 676,531 to 1,303,338 with a mean value of 999, The equivalent values at Conditional Approval were: 95%ile 1.132m; and, 50%ile used in the economic appraisal 998 thousand. October

151 construction and utilities 3. At this level the QRA allowance equates to around 3% of the cost estimate in nominal/outturn terms. In combination with the prudent uplift to construction and utilities costs made within the estimate, this equates to a total allowance of 2.02 million 6,7, 9% of the cost estimate in nominal/outturn terms. This is considered to be consistent with the risk characteristics of the project (see paragraph 3.2). 3.7 Convention for Cost Benefit Appraisal is to use the median (50%ile) confidence that the cost of the project will not exceed a budget 624 thousand 5 higher than the cost estimate (including the prudent uplifts for construction and utilities costs). 6 The total allowance equates to: 1.09m (10% of construction cost) m (10% of utilities cost) m (95%ile from the QRA) = 2.02m or 9% of the total FA budget of 23.42m. 7 The equivalent value at Conditional Approval for total risk allowance was 3.89 million. October

152 4 Conclusions 4.1 An allowance of 718 thousand additional to the outturn cost estimate represents a budget which, on the basis of the risks defined within the FA QRA risk register would be exceeded in only 5% of possible outcomes. Although this QRA allowance is towards the lower end of the likely range, in combination with the prudent uplift to construction and utilities costs made within the estimate it is considered appropriate. Overall the approach to cost estimation is sensibly prudent and the risk exposure presented by this project is relatively low. 4.2 This QRA allowance is a snapshot of risk at Full Approval stage. As the project progresses, the exposure to risk will change. The promoter s project manager is responsible for maintaining the project s risk management process. The monitoring and evaluation process will capture the outturn cost, compare this against the Full Approval budget, including recording the occurrence and impact of any risks which do come about during implementation. Key Risks 4.3 The FA QRA analysis provides a rank order of the contribution of individual risks to the overall assessment. Further development of the proposal in these areas could be particularly cost effective in increasing certainty and reducing the overall cost of risk to the project. The top six 8 risks, in descending order of contribution, are as follows: The potential need for an additional sub-station to accommodate the increase in service frequency along the central section of the existing tramway (QRA1-007) The potential for delays in the availability of the Wilkinson s site which is to be cleared by third parties (QRA1-021) The potential for businesses to successfully claim for compensation for disruption during construction (QRA1-015) The potential for statutory undertakers works to delay the delivery of the tramway infrastructure (QRA1-014) The potential for successful claims being made by the civil engineering contractor, beyond the allowance within the budget (QRA1-017) The potential that works on the Wilkinson s site cannot be completed within a single occupation because of interfaces with the hotel construction contractor (QRA2-022) 8 Outputs from the FA QRA show that the contribution of these risks is markedly different from the remaining seven risks, which make a more broadly consistent contribution to the overall assessment. October

153 Appendix A QRA Workshop Materials October

154

155 Meeting Agenda Meeting date 22 September 2017 Time 11:00 Issue date 22 September 2017 Venue Attendees Circulation Brodrick Room, Steer Davies Gleave, Leeds Paul Grocott (Blackpool Council) Steve Hunter, Jon Peters, Felicity Pike (Steer Davies Gleave) Attendees and file Project Blackpool North Tramway Extension Project No QRA Workshop Agenda 1. Introductions All 2. Project update PG 3. Introduction to project QRA methodology SH 4. Update of QRA matrix SH Lead 5. Review of QRA matrix against Overall Project Risk Register PG Lead 6. Any other business All Leeds 67 Albion Street Leeds LS1 5AA of 1

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157 Meeting Agenda Meeting date 18 November 2015 Time 11:00 Issue date 18 November 2015 Venue Starr Gate Tram Depot Attendees Paul Grocott, Jeremy Walker (Blackpool Council) Steve Hunter, Jon Peters (Steer Davies Gleave) Andrew Parke, Rob Park (Mott MacDonald) Circulation Attendees and file Project Blackpool North Tramway Extension Project No QRA Workshop Agenda and Prompt Sheet 1. Introductions All 2. Project update PG 3. Introduction to project QRA methodology SH Effective date Risks in-scope Technical specification 4. Population of QRA matrix (PTO for Prompt Sheet) All 5. Review of QRA matrix All 6. Broad programme for reviews and updates of QRA PG 7. Any other business All Leeds 67 Albion Street Leeds LS1 5AA of 2

158 Prompt Sheet: Risk Matrix Inputs Required Input [Illustration] Cause As a result of [the prom service frequency increasing] Risk may occur, [a requirement for an additional substation] Effect which would lead to one of: [works with costs that are not included] i. costs being higher than estimated (but no delay) ii. works with costs that are not included (but no delay) iii. delay and additional inflation costs (but no additional works) iv. works with costs that are not included, delay and additional inflation costs Proximity the stage by which the risk will have passed, for example: i. TWAO application ii. TWAO decision iii. Full approval iv. Start of operations Risk owner Mitigation [power study before TWAO application] Residual (including mitigation) risk impact: Impact Start Range Mid-Point End Range , , , , , , , , , , ,000 1,199, ,200,000 1,800,000 2,399,999 Residual (including mitigation) risk likelihood: Likelihood Start Range Mid-Point End Range 0 0% 0% 0% 1 0% 10% 19% 2 20% 30% 39% 3 40% 50% 59% 4 60% 70% 79% 5 80% 90% 100% 2 of 2

159 Appendix B CA QRA Risk Register

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161 Blackpool Tramway North Station Extension A QRA / /201 As a result of, may occur, which would lead to Risk closed by Risk owned/managed by Response strategy QRA1 Residual Risk QRA 2 Residual Risk ID Date added Last reviewed Status Cause Risk Effect Proximity Owner Mitigation Impact Likelihood Exposure Impact Likelihood Exposure QRA /11/ /09/2017 Closed Inflation being estimated it may exceed the allowance costs being higher than estimated Full approval Blackpool Council NA QRA /11/ /09/2017 Open Needing to meet ORR requirements QRA /11/ /09/2017 Open Granting of TWAO being delayed QRA /11/ /09/2017 Open QRA /11/ /09/2017 Closed QRA /11/ /09/2017 Open QRA /11/ /09/2017 Open Extent of utilities works and cost being estimated Assumption that no allowance is required for land or property costs Promoter requiring changes to the scheme Promenade/core service frequency increasing QRA /11/ /09/2017 Closed Unknown ground conditions QRA /11/ /09/2017 Closed Procurement process additional works may be required costs being higher than estimated Long term Blackpool Council Continuing engagement with ORR additional works may be required and/or allowance exceeded some acquisition or compensation may be required delay and additional inflation costs works with costs that are not included, delay and additional inflation costs TWAO decision Blackpool Council Continuing engagement with DfT TWAO decision Blackpool Council Engagement with statutory undertakers, prudent allowance in budget costs being higher than estimated TWAO application Blackpool Council NA additional works may be required costs being higher than estimated TWAO application an additional substation may be required additional works may be required and/or allowance exceeded tenders may be higher than estimated QRA /11/ /09/2017 Closed Procurement process problems with the process QRA /11/ /09/2017 Closed QRA /11/ /09/2017 Open Requirement to meet design standards Requiring Network Rail approval for EMC effects QRA /11/ /09/2017 Closed Needing connections to utilities QRA /11/ /09/2017 Open Requiring utilities diversions QRA /11/ /09/2017 Open Disruption during construction QRA /11/ /09/2017 Open Impact during operations QRA /11/ /09/2017 Open Construction process QRA /11/ /09/2017 Closed QRA /11/ /09/2017 Open Integrating with existing tramway systems, infrastructure and vehicles Project development costs being estimated which may change which may be require more onerous protection than envisaged quotes may exceed the budget allowance works may delay the main programme business compensation may be required successful Part 1 claims may be made contractor may make successful claims for unforeseen circumstances additional works, equipment, or testing may be required more development work being required than allowed for works with costs that are not included works with costs that are not included Blackpool Council Internal stakeholder communications Start of operations Blackpool Council Power study updated Start of operations costs being higher than estimated Full approval delay and additional inflation costs Full approval costs being higher than estimated Start of operations Blackpool Council, passed to contractor when appointed Blackpool Council Blackpool Council Blackpool Council, passed to contractor when appointed Commission GI, prudent allowance in budget Cost benchmarking, market testing, prudent adoption of previous tender rates Robust procurement processes applied by an experienced team NA costs being higher than estimated Start of operations Blackpool Council Engagement with Network Rail costs being higher than estimated Start of operations delay and additional inflation costs Start of operations costs being higher than estimated Start of operations costs being higher than estimated Long term costs being higher than estimated Start of operations works with costs that are not included Start of operations costs being higher than estimated Start of operations Blackpool Council, passed to contractor when appointed Blackpool Council Blackpool Council Blackpool Council Blackpool Council Blackpool Council, passed to contractor when appointed Blackpool Council Engagement with statutory undertakers Engagement with statutory undertakers, prudent allowance in programme Construction strategy prepared, considers seasonality of impacts, included within consultation effort Legal advice taken and mitigation strategy prepared Robust contract, form of contract and contract management, prudent allowance in budget Describe the interacts within contract documentation and pass to contractor Robust project management, prudent allowance in budget QRA /11/ /09/2017 Closed QRA /09/ /09/2017 Open Having planning conditions to discharge Reliance on third parties for clearance of Wilkinson's store additional works may be required costs being higher than estimated Start of operations availability of terminus site may be delayed beyond completion of other works additional cost of remobilising contractor Blackpool Council Specific in contract in relation to design, materials and conditions which need to be met Start of operations Blackpool Council Engagement with relevant parties QRA /09/ /09/2017 Open The interface with the hotel construction programme ability to complete all works on the terminus site as planned additional cost of reccoupying site and sub-dividing works Start of operations Blackpool Council Engagement with relevant parties 1 3 3

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164 steerdaviesgleave.com

165 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

166 Appendix C Transport Economic Efficiency Economic Efficiency of the Transport System (TEE) ( 000s) Preferred Option Non-business: Commuting ALL MODES ROAD BUS and COACH RAIL OTHER User benefits TOTAL Private Cars and LGVs Passengers Passengers Travel time 21,258 1,097 20,162 Vehicle operating costs User charges -1,953-1,935 During Construction & Maintenance NET NON-BUSINESS BENEFITS: COMMUTING 19,323 (1a) 1,097 18,226 Non-business: Other BUS and ALL MODES ROAD COACH RAIL User benefits TOTAL Private Cars and LGVs Passengers Passengers Travel time 36,006 2,042 33,964 Vehicle operating costs User charges -5,425-5,425 During Construction & Maintenance NET NON-BUSINESS BENEFITS: OTHER 30,581 (1b) 2,042 28,539 OTHER Business User benefits Goods Vehicles Travel time 2, ,838 Vehicle operating costs User charges During Construction & Maintenance Subtotal 2,565 (2) 934 1,631 Business Cars & LGVs Passengers Freight Passengers Private sector provider impacts Freight Passengers Revenue Operating costs Investment costs -22,418-22,418 Grant/subsidy 22,418 22,418 Subtotal - (3) - Other business impacts Developer contributions (4) NET BUSINESS IMPACT 2,565 (5) = (2) + (3) + (4) TOTAL Present Value of Transport Economic Efficiency Benefits (TEE) 52,469 (6) = (1a) + (1b) + (5) Notes: Benefits appear as positive numbers, while costs appear as negative numbers. All entries are discounted present values, in 2010 prices and values Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

167 Economic Efficiency of the Transport System (TEE) ( 000s) Lower Cost Alternative Non-business: Commuting ALL MODES ROAD BUS and COACH RAIL OTHER User benefits TOTAL Private Cars and LGVs Passengers Passengers Travel time 6, ,388 Vehicle operating costs User charges During Construction & Maintenance NET NON-BUSINESS BENEFITS: COMMUTING Non-business: Other 6,505 (1a) 506 5,999 - ALL MODES ROAD BUS and COACH User benefits TOTAL Private Cars and LGVs Passengers Passengers Travel time 11, ,439 Vehicle operating costs - User charges -1,199-1,199 During Construction & Maintenance - NET NON-BUSINESS BENEFITS: OTHER 10,182 (1b) 942 9,240 - Business User benefits Goods Vehicles Business Cars & LGVs Travel time Vehicle operating costs - User charges During Construction & Maintenance - RAIL Passengers Freight Passengers Subtotal 952 (2) Private sector provider impacts Freight Passengers Revenue - Operating costs - Investment costs -7,246-7,246 Grant/subsidy 7,246 7,246 Subtotal - (3) - Other business impacts Developer contributions (4) NET BUSINESS IMPACT 952 (5) = (2) + (3) + (4) OTHER TOTAL Present Value of Transport Economic Efficiency Benefits (TEE) 17,639 (6) = (1a) + (1b) + (5) Notes: Benefits appear as positive numbers, while costs appear as negative numbers. All entries are discounted present values, in 2010 prices and values Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

168 Public Accounts (PA) Table 000s Preferred Option Local Government Funding TOTAL INFRASTRUCTURE ALL MODES ROAD BUS and COACH RAIL OTHER Revenue -27,158-27,158 Operating Costs 20,467 20,467 Investment Costs Developer and Other Contributions Grant/Subsidy Payments 22,418 22,418 NET IMPACT 15,727 (7) Central Government Funding: Transport Revenue Operating costs Investment Costs Developer and Other Contributions Grant/Subsidy Payments NET IMPACT -20 (8) Central Government Funding: Non-Transport Indirect Tax Revenues 4,739 (9) 523 4,216 TOTALS Broad Transport Budget 15,707 (10) = (7) + (8) Wider Public Finances 4,739 (11) = (9) Notes: Costs appear as positive numbers, while revenues and Developer and Other Contributions' appear as negative numbers. All entries are discounted present values in 2010 prices and values. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

169 Public Accounts (PA) Table 000s Lower Cost Alternative ALL MODES ROAD BUS and COACH RAIL OTHER Local Government Funding TOTAL INFRASTRUCTURE Revenue -6,646-6,646 Operating Costs 3,895 3,895 Investment Costs Developer and Other Contributions Grant/Subsidy Payments 7,246 7,246 NET IMPACT 4,495 (7) Central Government Funding: Transport Revenue Operating costs -9-9 Investment Costs Developer and Other Contributions Grant/Subsidy Payments NET IMPACT -9 (8) Central Government Funding: Non-Transport Indirect Tax Revenues 1,276 (9) 241 1,035 TOTALS Broad Transport Budget 4,486 (10) = (7) + (8) Wider Public Finances 1,276 (11) = (9) Notes: Costs appear as positive numbers, while revenues and Developer and Other Contributions' appear as negative numbers. All entries are discounted present values in 2010 prices and values. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

170 Appendix D Distributional Impacts Stage 1 Proforma Indicator User benefits Noise (a) Appraisal output criteria The TUBA user benefit analysis software or an equivalent process has been used in the appraisal; and/or the value of user benefits Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE) table is non-zero. Any change in alignment of transport corridor or any links with significant changes ( >25% or <-20%) in vehicle flow, speed or %HDV content. Also note comment in TAG Unit A3. (b) Potential impact (yes / no, positive/negative if known) Positive: 57.3m (PV) Consumer User Benefit Yes, small changes expected (c) Qualitative Comments (d) Proceed to Step 2 Spread over Blackpool. Significant benefit, which may be concentrated around Blackpool North station area, and may be concentrated amongst specific social groups. No expectation of an area being worse off as a result of intervention. No additional traffic generated by the proposed scheme. The overall effect of traffic removed from Talbot Road and displaced to Clifton Street on noise has been calculated as 3dB by Blackpool Council. As a commerical area with commerical receptors, this result is considered to be minor and therefore not significant. See section 4.7 for full results of Step 2 No. The impact to vulnerable groups will be minimal as a result of changes to traffic flow from the scheme. Air quality Accidents Any change in alignment of transport corridor or any Yes, small changes links with significant changes in vehicle flow, speed or expected %HDV content: Change in 24 hour AADT of 1000 vehicles or more Change in 24 hour AADT of HDV of 200 HDV vehicles or more Change in daily average speed of 10kph or more Change in peak hour speed of 20kph or more Change in road alignment of 5m or more Any change in alignment of transport corridor (or road Positive, accident layout) that may have positive or negative safety reduction impacts, or any links with significant changes in vehicle flow, speed, %HGV content or any significant change (>10%) in the number of pedestrians, cyclists or motorcyclists using road network. The scheme will re-route traffic from No. The impact to Talbot Square along Clifton Street vulnerable groups will be resulting in an increase in vehicles on minimal as a result of Clifton Street. However, the overall changes to traffic flow volume of traffic within the Blackpool from the scheme. AQMA is not expected to change due to the proposed scheme but will increase as a result of background traffic growth (5,155 vehicles between the 2019 Do Nothing and 2019 Do Something). As a result, receptors are predicted to experience only a small change in NO2 and PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations which are negligible and not significant. Small benefit included in the business No, but review when case due to mode shift away from car business case results use. Benefits likely to be evenly updated spread around Blackpool and Fleetwood area. Security Severance Accessibility Any change in public transport waiting/interchange facilities including pedestrian access expected to affect user perceptions of personal security. Introduction or removal of barriers to pedestrian movement, either through changes to road crossing provision, or through introduction of new public transport or road corridors. Any areas with significant changes (>10%) in vehicle flow, speed, %HGV content. Changes in routings or timings of current public transport services, any changes to public transport provision, including routing, frequencies, waiting facilities (bus stops / rail stations) and rolling stock, or any indirect impacts on accessibility to services (e.g. demolition & re-location of a school). Positive improvement around line of route due to visibility of tramway / tram stops Yes- but neutral impact Positive Benefits arise from provision of lighting (especially at night), and CCTV installation No -The benefits of scheme are small and the vulnerable groups affected by the scheme are not particularly concentrated at the source of the improvements. Some small negative impacts could No - impacts will be be created through the introduction of neutral the tramway, but these would be very minor, since the tramway extension is very short and is easy for pedestrians to cross. However, signalisation of roundabout will improve severance impacts, so scheme may provide net positive impacts. Blackpool and Fleetwood tram See section 4.7 for full vehicles are accessible to Persons results of Step 2 with Reduced Mobility (PRM), and will provide enhanced access to employment and services in the Blackpool area, particularly for people without access to a private car. Affordability In cases where the following charges would occur; Negative:- 7.4m (PV) Parking charges (including where changes in the allocation of free or reduced fee spaces may occur); Car fuel and non-fuel operating costs (where, for example, rerouting or changes in journey speeds and congestion occur resulting in changes in costs); Road user charges (including discounts and exemptions for different groups of travellers); Public transport fare changes (where, for example premium fares are set on new or existing modes or where multi-modal discounted travel tickets become available due to new ticketing technologies); or Public transport concession availability (where, for example concession arrangements vary as a result of a move in service provision from bus to light rail or heavy rail, where such concession entitlement is not maintained by the local authority[1]). Blackpool and Fleetwood trams are a higher fare product than buses, so modal shift to them gives an affordability disbenefit. However, people benefit from more choice, and buses are still available. See section 4.7 for full results of Step 2 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

171 Accessibility Deprivation Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

172 Under 16 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

173 Young Adults Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

174 Aged 65+ Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

175 Disability Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

176 BME Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

177 Carers Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

178 User Benefits Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

179 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

180 Affordability Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

181 Appendix E Environmental Appraisal Environmental maps and further supporting evidence are provided as a separate document due to their large file size Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

182 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

183 Appendix F Appraisal Summary Table Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

184 Appraisal Summary Table Name of scheme: Description of scheme: Date produced: 24/10/2017 Blackpool Tramway Extension Extension of the Blackpool Tramway to extend to Blackpool North rail station from the current North Pier stop. Contact: Name Paul Grocott OrganisatBlackpool Council Role Project Manager Economy Impacts Business users & transport providers Summary of key impacts Net benefits to public transport and highway users from improved journey times and greater choice of public transport services ( 2.8m). The PT only journey time benefits are shown in Column E - J since highway time benefits are calculated via MECs. 0 to 2min Quantitative Value of journey time changes( ) Net journey time changes ( ) 2 to 5min > 5min Assessment Qualitative Monetar (NPV) 1.84m - 2.8m Distributional 7-pt scale/ vulnerable grp 0.29m 0.87m 0.68m Environmental Reliability impact on The proposal will have a broadly similar reliability and performance to Business users existing public transport options Regeneration Improved public transport provision and a visible commitment to public transport infrastructure will encourage inward investment, stimulating regeneration and growth Wider Impacts Potential for labour supply benefits, qualitatively assessed as slight beneficial Noise The scheme will reduce traffic volumes along the proposed route by encouraging a shift in modes from private cars to public transport. The reduction in traffic volume along the proposed alignment is likely to have a number of beneficial effects, including localised reductions in traffic noise and vehicle emissions and associated improvements in air quality. Additionally, during operation there are likely to be changes to traffic flows associated with diversion of traffic to adjacent roads. This may result in changes to noise levels and air quality; however, these changes are unlikely to result in significant adverse effects. 0.03m Neutral Moderate Beneficial Slight Beneficial Slight Beneficial m No additional traffic will be generated by the Proposed Scheme. The result in a minor noise effect from the scheme is not likely to be significant. Further DI analysis not undertaken. Air Quality <0.01m Slight Beneficial <0.01m The overall volume of traffic within the Blackpool AQMA is not expected to change due to the proposed scheme. Further DI analysis not undertaken. Greenhouse gases Change in non-traded carbon over 60y (CO2e) Change in traded carbon over 60y (CO2e) Slight Beneficial 0.11m Landscape Townscape Historic Environment The proposed route is located within the Blackpool town centre Conservation Area, which extends along Talbot Road between the North Pier and Dickson Road. The design of the tramway will be sensitive to the design requirements of the Conservation Area such that no adverse effects will occur. The scheme is located adjacent to several listed buildings but the tramway extension is unlikely to result in direct impacts on these assets but potentially contribute to an adverse effect on their setting. This is to be established through a setting assessment. Biodiversity Water Environment The proposed tramway extension is unlikely to adversely affect the townscape or visual receptors along Talbot Road. There is potential for the tramway to result in improvements to the existing streetscape, particularly at the eastern end of the scheme (in the vicinity of the railway station). Designated sites will not be affected adversely by the scheme. Protected species are unlikely to be affected adversely. The potential for contaminated soils is to be assessed. Slight Beneficial Slight Beneficial Neutral Neutral No operational effects on the water environment are anticipated following appropriate road drainage design. Neutral Public Accounts Social Commuting and Other users Reliability impact on Commuting and Other users Physical activity Journey quality Accidents Security Access to services Affordability Severance Option and non-use values Cost to Broad Transport Budget Indirect Tax Revenues Benefits to public transport and highway users from improved journey times and greater choice of public transport services. The PT only journey time benefits are shown in Column E - J since highway time benefits are calculated via MECs. The proposal will have a broadly similar reliability and performance to existing public transport options Encouraging use of public transport may increase use to walking/cycle access trips, However some attracted passengers may currently walk down Talbot Road. Extension of a modern high quality tram system along a corridor currently served by buses will result in public transport users experiencing improved journey quality (monetised benefit included within journey time benefits) Reduction in car km driven due to modal shift Improved public security (both perceived and actual) due to tram stop lighting and passenger facilities The extension of the Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway will improve the connectivity and movements in and around Blackpool and also linkages into Blackpool and from Blackpool to the surrounding areas. The scheme will improve public transport connectivity and accessibility to leisure attractions and employment in Blackpool, this will encourage commuting and other users to travel more, incurring user charges (- 7.4m). For Business users the user charges are - 0.2m m Any adverse impacts are likely to be minor as at-grade light rail schemes form less of a barrier to movement compared to new road or rail links. It is likely that any adverse impacts would be offset by the introduction of additional pedestrian crossings Neutral - The scheme enhances the local public transport network and creates viable public transport alternatives (for example to Preston) which deliver option values and non-user benefits The costs to the public sector include capital for implementation (- 15.4m), operating costs (- 20.5m), and maintenance (- 7.0m). These are offset by revenue generated by service operations ( 27.2m) Reduced tax receipts from increased spending on untaxed PT fares and from reduced fuel consumption (from mode shift). Value of journey time changes( ) Net journey time changes ( ) 0 to 2min 2 to 5min > 5min 9.17m 24.92m 20.03m - Neutral Neutral - - Slight Beneficial Slight Beneficial - Slight Beneficial m m m m -4.7m The distribution of user benefits to the 0%-20% quintile in the area shown in the plot is approximately 70% with less than 10% of user benefits in the 60% and above quintiles. Small benefits from the scheme due to modal shift will be spatially dispersed. Further DI analysis not undertaken. The benefits of scheme are small and the vulnerable groups affected by the scheme are not particularly concentrated at the source of the improvements. Further DI analysis not undertaken. The scheme improves accessibility for many of the vulnerable groups because the scheme removes the requirement for interchange to reach central services and services beyond Blackpool by rail. There are no large groups of children under 16, or BME populations that will benefit in terms of the accessibility of the scheme. There is no evidence that these groups will suffer disbenefits as a result of the scheme. Tram fares in Blackpool will not increase as a result of the scheme. The change in affordability is because users are choosing to take tram over bus which is relatively more expensive. Through choosing the tram over bus, users have essentially bought the journey time benefits that the scheme brings forward. The majority of the lowest income quintile will see zero or negligible changes in average fares paid. Severance impacts will be result in a neutral impact therefore further DI analysis not undertaken.

185 Appendix G Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (AMCB) Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits ( 000s) Preferred Option Noise 28 (12) Local Air Quality 3 (13) Greenhouse Gases 113 (14) Journey Quality (15) Physical Activity (16) Accidents 389 (17) Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (1a) 19,323 (Commuting) Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (Other) 30,581 (1b) Economic Efficiency: Business Users and Providers Wider Public Finances (Indirect Taxation Revenues) 2,565-4,739 (5) - (11) - sign changed from PA table, as PA table represents costs, not benefits Present Value of Benefits (see notes) (PVB) 48,263 (PVB) = (12) + (13) + (14) + (15) + (16) + (17) + (1a) + (1b) + (5) - (11) Broad Transport Budget 15,707 (10) Present Value of Costs (see notes) (PVC) 15,707 (PVC) = (10) OVERALL IMPACTS Net Present Value (NPV) 32,556 NPV=PVB-PVC Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) 3.07 BCR=PVB/PVC Note: This table includes costs and benefits which are regularly or occasionally presented in monetised form in transport appraisals, together with some where monetisation is in prospect. There may also be other significant costs and benefits, some of which cannot be presented in monetised form. Where this is the case, the analysis presented above does NOT provide a good measure of Value for Money and should not be used as the sole basis for decisions. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

186 Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits ( 000s) Lower Cost Alternative Noise 13 (12) Local Air Quality 2 (13) Greenhouse Gases 52 (14) Journey Quality (15) Physical Activity (16) Accidents 180 (17) Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (1a) 6,505 (Commuting) Economic Efficiency: Consumer Users (Other) 10,182 (1b) Economic Efficiency: Business Users and Providers Wider Public Finances (Indirect Taxation Revenues) 952-1,276 (5) - (11) - sign changed from PA table, as PA table represents costs, not benefits Present Value of Benefits (see notes) (PVB) 16,610 (PVB) = (12) + (13) + (14) + (15) + (16) + (17) + (1a) + (1b) + (5) - (11) Broad Transport Budget 4,486 (10) Present Value of Costs (see notes) (PVC) 4,486 (PVC) = (10) OVERALL IMPACTS Net Present Value (NPV) 12,124 NPV=PVB-PVC Benefit to Cost Ratio (BCR) 3.70 BCR=PVB/PVC Note: This table includes costs and benefits which are regularly or occasionally presented in monetised form in transport appraisals, together with some where monetisation is in prospect. There may also be other significant costs and benefits, some of which cannot be presented in monetised form. Where this is the case, the analysis presented above does NOT provide a good measure of Value for Money and should not be used as the sole basis for decisions. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

187 Appendix H Scheme Cost Estimates Activity Price (Cost Report) (Nominal) Price (Appraisal) (Nominal) Construction Total 10,917,560 10,917,560 Cost to date 887, Statutory Undertakers 2,116, Works Additional Vehicles 5,033,947 5,033,947 SCADA 506, Pre-construction costs 339, Management of Capital Works 1,013,600 1,013,600 Capital Cost Total 20,815,049 16,965,107 Risk 2,020,895 1,716,756 5 Scheme Cost Subject to Funding BBC Funded Preparation Costs 22,835,944 18,681, ,720 75,000 6 Total Scheme Cost 23,421,664 18,756,863 1 SCADA costs have not been included in the appraisal 2 The P50 QRA value is used, and sunk risks are also not included in the appraisal. The Stats costs are fully committed. 3 The BBC costs for Conditional Approval ( 332k) are considered sunk, and not included in the appraisal Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

188 Appendix I Letters of Support MEETING WITH DEPUTY MANAGER OF SAINSBURY s BLACKPOOL ON THURSDAY 19 NOVEMBER 2015 Present: Paul Grocott Blackpool Council Ian McGauley Sainsbury s Blackpool MEETING NOTE 1. PG outlined the reasons and benefits for the proposed extension of the tramway to North Station:- Provide onward public transport from the station to areas of Blackpool not linked by public transport; Provides direct tram service towards Starr Gate and Fleetwood; Caters for the large number of people using Blackpool North station, which surveys suggest almost 80% are travelling to the Blackpool FY1, FY2 and FY4 postcodes. This is the area between Pleasure Beach and Bispham; Provides improved public transport connections to the Talbot Gateway development, including Sainsbury s store; Provides a rail/tram/bus transport hub and interchange in the vicinity of the station; Complements the proposed next stage of the Talbot Gateway development and will result in improvements to Talbot Road. Provides additional public transport capacity in the area to allow for future growth. 2. PG outlined the proposals for the scheme, which would branch off the main route at North Pier, pass through Talbot Square and proceed eastwards along Talbot Road before terminating in the area of Blackpool North Railway Station. PG confirmed that the present location for the terminus is on the footpath in front of the Wilkinson s store building, although there is a further option of relocating the store and siting the terminus within the current store footprint. PG further confirmed that there will be not road closures associated with the scheme, although signalled junctions will be reintroduced at Cookson Street and Topping Street. 3. IMG welcomed the proposals and confirmed he had no issue with the proposed terminus location, or the alternative location. He said that it was the view of Sainsburys that a large proportion of the Blackpool population and their customers Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

189 were reliant on public transport and the proposed tramway extension should benefit them by providing additional public transport links to other areas of the town. IMG also confirmed that a large proportion of people using the station would also shop at Sainsbury s so any scheme which may also increase usage of the station through better transport links would be welcomed by them. 4. PG outlined the proposed timescales for the works, but also confirmed that a Transport and Works Act order would be required. This could lead to objections and a potential Public Inquiry. IMG said that he could not see Sainsbury s objecting to the scheme, but would discuss the proposals with Sainsbury s Senior Management and pass on any concerns. PG confirmed that if necessary he would be happy to discuss the proposals or make a presentation if necessary to the senior management from Sainsbury s. PG/wjs Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

190 MEETING WITH RAIL COMPANIES AS STAKEHOLDERS PROPOSED TRAMWAY EXTENSION FROM NORTH PIER TO BLACKPOOL NORTH STATION THURSDAY 24 SEPTEMBER 2015 AT AM CONFERENCE ROOM 2E BICKERSTAFFE HOUSE, TALBOT ROAD, BLACKPOOL Present: Paul Grocott Blackpool Council Jane Cole Blackpool Transport Services Anna Doran Virgin Trains Jason Ashmore First Group Craig Harrop Northern Rail Stuart Briggs Northern Rail Wendy Shaw BBC Note Taker Item No. Item Action 1 Welcome and Introduction PG welcomed everyone and thanked them for attending the meeting. He explained the reason for the meeting which was to advise them of the proposed tramway extension scheme from North Pier to Blackpool North Station and also for Jane Cole of Blackpool Transport Services to take the opportunity to discuss seamless travel, through ticketing and partnership working. PG explained to the meeting that the tramway was almost 130 years old and had previously suffered from a lack of investment. In 2009 the Council received funding in order for an upgrade of the tramway to take place and this enabled the purchase of new trams (which were DDA compliant), new track and a new Depot to be built at Squires Gate. The new tramway was opened in 2012 and it has proved to be very successful with passenger growth and revenue. It was a risk in so much as we could have lost passengers at first, but the truth is they bounced back very quickly. Fares have recently increased by 50p but this has not made any difference to passenger numbers. People who use the Bus Pass tend to use the bus as they cannot use their pass on the tram, unless they are Blackpool residents. PG advised that the tramway is not subsidised and the infrastructure is owned by Blackpool Council but Blackpool Transport operate the service. After deregulation in 1985, BTS are a separate company and although the tramway belongs to Blackpool Council, BTS are the operators. Whilst we were doing the tramway upgrade, we received European Funding through Interreg which would consider an extension to the Tramway and although there were a couple of options, the preferred scheme is the extension up to North Station. The opportunity came to us before DfT devolved all funding and we were able to put forward our scheme. The funding was devolved to the regions and in this region it is allocated via the LEP (Lancashire Enterprise Partnership) which covers Blackpool, Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

191 Item No. Item Action Blackburn and Lancashire. The proposed scheme is fully funded but there is a process we have to go through in three stages, i.e. First stage is Programme Entry Second stage is Conditional Approval, and Third stage is Final and Full Approval. By the time we reach Full Approval we have to be able to confirm the budget. It is all about having a good benefit cost ratio (BCR) and if this is beyond a certain level, i.e. beyond 2:1, the scheme will get approval after programme entry. The BCR for the scheme is 3.3:1 at present and we know it will get better; it is a high priority scheme with the LEP and PG said he would talk through the scheme now and ask if anyone had any issues. 2 Outline of Proposed New Extension PG began by saying that a data collection at Blackpool North Station had taken place in 2011 and then was repeated three weeks ago. 1.8 million passengers use Blackpool North Station annually; 85% come to Blackpool for tourism, leisure and business and 80% of these want to go to the sea front and hotels. A small proportion use Blackpool North Station for commuting. 47% of people walk from Blackpool North Station to wherever they want to go. There is not a bus service which will take them where they want to go; no town shuttle route. Two thirds of arrivals go by taxi to the attractions. PG said that rail travel to Blackpool North is fairly static, however, CH commented that ORR information will be out next month and their figures are normally 4-5% less than normal. CH said that growth stood at between 4 & 5%. PG continued that the new extension tramway will be going to where they want to go. The benefit cost ratio is healthy, however, we did not take into account the electrification of the rail line; we did not account for the new Central Business District in the centre of Blackpool nor the success of the new tramway service. The BCR is going to go up and as we have programme entry we are confident that we will get Conditional Approval this year and Full Approval in February However, we are going to have to apply for powers. This is a process called Transport and Works Act Orders (TWAO). Unfortunately they took the tramway tracks up as the tramway originally travelled up Talbot Road to Layton. The guidance we have received says that it is incumbent upon us to provide Powers. We have to consult with all Stakeholders and we will commence the TWAO next week; we have to go to the Secretary of State for this. We could conceivably get objections from business owners Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

192 Item No. Item Action that front onto Talbot Road and the taxis companies and, therefore, we may have to go to a Public Inquiry. PG then tabled a drawing showing the proposed layout of the new extension. He pointed out that at North Pier when the track was being rebuilt for the tramway upgrade we installed a delta junction and designed the track alignment to go through Talbot Square so that we will not affect the existing tramway; the aim is to connect the main scheme from Fleetwood to the rail station. If people travel to the rail station from Fleetwood, they will change the way they travel. So there will be an interchange at North Pier, although if they need to change, there will be a disbenefit. There will be three stops on each leg of the delta. The tramway will go straight up the highway as it does in Manchester and in Fleetwood, however, the trams will need to travel slower than the cars. Even though the Central Business District has been redeveloped, we will need to take out the roundabout at the top of Talbot Road. The original plan we had was to turn the tramway into High Street and the terminus would have been there. The Local Councillors were not happy with blocking off one of the streets to traffic to enable this scheme and so we now have a couple of alternative options. We will no longer go into High Street. We will put two tramstops on the pavement outside Wilkinsons; the pavements are 3.5 metres wide which would allow us to do this. There are already ramps down to the underpass for passengers to get through to the Station quite readily. We know we can build this and ORR have no concerns. There are also plans to re-develop the area. Wilkinson s want to move as they want a smaller site. The Council would like them to move so plans to redevelop their site with a hotel and shops have been considered, but we need to agree with Wilkinsons in the next four months. The terminus will then go onto the Wilkinson s site. The level of Wilkinson s basement is the same as the Station as this location used to be the Station. If this was the case and we used their site, we would re-do the underpass. CH commented that Muse and Antony Hill had been in discussions with CH on how to redevelop the Station area. He continued that currently they are in the pre-franchise change but with the growth deal from Network Rail there should be money to redevelop. CH would really like to see this and the North Station would benefit from a redevelopment. PG said that if they use the Wilkinson s site, we could do something with the entrance to North Station. CH asked where the scheme sits with Lancashire County. PG answered that it is a priority LEP Scheme and Lancashire are the lead partner. Discussion was entered into around the South Fylde Line. This was one of the options for the tramway extension and Chris Anslow wants to do it, however, he does not have any money. The extension to North Station was the preferred option. If we get the Wilkinson s site, then in Muses s overall programme there will probably be money to redevelop the Station. Delivery of the new Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

193 Item No. Item Action extension will be to commence mid-2018 and finish end of 2019, however, the TWAO process could take months if we go to Public Inquiry and this will have a bearing on the completion date. 3 Proposed Service Pattern and Frequency Currently the tramway service operates a ten minute service in both directions. What we are looking at is to ensure that the original tram times remain the same so as not to cause any disbenefits to current patronage, as the current service is a good business model, but to overlay the service with trams going from Pleasure Beach to North Station and from North Station to Bispham. Those who want to travel from Fleetwood or Starr Gate to the rail station will catch a tram at those tramstops but change somewhere along the route from Pleasure Beach in the south and from Bispham in the north. The service has to be frequent enough to be quicker than walking the distance from the station to the promenade and a 10 minute service would provide that. There will always be a tram at the terminus being prepared, and so visitors will be able to leave the station and get on to a tram immediately, even though they may have to wait a little prior to the tram departing, but at least they are on a tram and can stack their luggage etc. PG addressed the issue of rolling stock. Enough trams were ordered to do the service model, therefore 16 trams were purchased and we only thought 14 trams would be needed for the 10 minute service. To operate the extended service to north station, we do need more trams. The trams we have are 32 metres long, 5 section low floor models with seating for 74 but can take 150 people standing. The heritage trams take a maximum of 80 people. JC commented that there are 2 double and 2 single heritage trams and she has more capacity with the Balloon trams. PG said the Heritage trams can operate anywhere on our tramway system; the infrastructure will not stop you running a heritage tram. Blackpool is the only one that has inter-operability issues; nowhere else does this. PG also added that we still have options with Bombardier, the supplier of the trams, and at a competitive price. This is the scheme we want to run in 2019, earlier if at all possible, however TWAO may dictate the timescale. PG added that there will obviously be disruption on the highways outside the station but the works will not disrupt the station itself. CH said he would like to make changes to Blackpool North Station and he thought that with the new franchise, they would be looking to spend money on new stations. However, he felt that if there are other schemes in the vicinity, it may be more economical and helpful to piggy-back on those schemes. PG confirmed that the Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

194 Item No. Item Action Council would like to create a better entrance to the local car-park and JC commented that she would like a bus terminus in this area too. Some discussion took place around the South Fylde Line and tramtrains and then PG asked the attendees if they had any objections to the scheme he had outlined. CH said he was impressed with the sound of the scheme and everyone else said they were happy for the scheme to go ahead. They did not see any disbenefits. CH said that the heavy rail from Lytham and Ansdell through to Blackpool is going to become a 30 minute service, it is currently hourly. London Midland is going to operate 6 new direct services into Blackpool. PG was pleased there were no objections from the meeting, however, he did say that he felt the only potential difficulties could come from Network Rail. He had been to see Network Rail earlier in the week and he needs to refer to Network Rail s Signalling and OLE Team to check there will not be any EMC issues. PG felt that with the vehicles Blackpool operates, there would not be any issues of this nature, however, he was mindful that Birmingham had spent 1m on EMC issues and PG did not want this. He wants sign off from Network Rail and their OLE teams and Network Rail are now looking at this. PG PG also told the meeting that the scheme as outlined today was not in the public domain as yet. Some information was published back in 2012 and from the information given then, 98% of people said they felt it was a good idea. We are scheduled to speak with Senior Councillors next week and following those discussions, the Council will go public. CH asked that when the news can be shared, could he please have a copy of the drawings that PG had tabled. JC answered a question and confirmed that BTS would need more staff to operate the new extension. 4 and 5 Seamless Travel, Through Ticketing, Partnership Working & Joint Marketing JC told the meeting that although 2019 appeared to be a long way off, she would like to work with the rail companies in order to operate seamless travel. BTS are currently number one on Trip Adviser as so many people want to come to Blackpool to use the trams and the heritage trams. JC has introduced seamless travel with coach companies, which is working well because Blackpool and BTS have got a great product. JC continued that she wants to start marketing seamless travel with the rail companies now so that when 2019 comes, tickets are already in hotels. BTS are exploring new ticketing and other technologies as it currently is not good. She felt that now is the time to start talking with the growth in technology ticketing, e-tickets is huge and AD agreed the need to look at end ticket. JC would like to know what the rail companies are doing. Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

195 Item No. Item Action CH said Northern Rail do ticket to mobile on all their routes. They are also going to replace their current ticket machines. CH also made the comment that Smart technology is a little behind in this country compared to Europe and he felt it would not be a problem to provide a three ticket package, train-bus/tram and Blackpool. AD said that they were promoting Blackpool, through Philip Welsh (BBC), with their Virgin breaks through Escapes. This was only just launched in September through Adrian Varn. JC said she would drop him a note. JC said she would be happy if any of them could give her contacts. AD said that Virgin was appointing a Regional Marketing Manager and she will get them to contact JC and come to see her. JC said she would be grateful for any contacts. Some further general discussions took place and then the meeting closed at midday. ALL Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

196 TRAMWAY EXTENSION TO BLACKPOOL NORTH STATION MEETING NOTE 3 SEPTEMBER am OFFICE OF RAIL REGULATION Present: Paul Grocott BBC Chris Goodlad ORR 1. PG outlined the proposed scheme and route to North Station and confirmed the impact on the highway and the location of the terminus. CG had no concerns over the proposals and accepted that the terminus could be located on the footpath in front of the Wilkinson s store. CG advised that for westbound vehicles approaching Talbot Square, BBC cannot simply erect a no entry sign to prevent access onto the tramway, because this applies equally to a tram. CG suggested that BBC check the proposed signage with DfT and UK Tram. 2. Whilst PG had concerns regarding Network Rail and possible EMC issues, CG was of the opinion that the proposed location of the tramway terminus should present no problems. CG suggested that BBC contact Andy Hughes, the Asset Protection Manager at Network Rail LNW and the national EMC team at emcnst@networkrail.co.uk. CG advised that there is a section on the Network Rail website that deals with development near to a railway. 3. PG confirmed that it will be necessary to obtain powers for the proposed extension. CG advised that in this respect a TWAO would also provide the necessary powers to operate the extension and an application for approval to the Secretary of State, as with the tramway upgrade, will not be required. 4. PG asked about safety verification in accordance with ROG s, but also confirmed that there would be nothing new on the proposed scheme, and no additional risk. Whilst BBC may purchase two more vehicles, they would be the same design and the highway/tramway interface and signalling would not change. CG advised that a process of SV should not be required, although BTS would need to update their Safety Management System (SMS). 5. In general CG had no concerns regarding the extension to North Station, provided that the same approach from the recent upgrade was followed. 6. On other matters, PG confirmed that BBC may construct an additional tram stop at Norbreck North; CG had no concerns with this. In addition CG confirmed that ORR were the enforcing authority for the current depot repair work, not the HSE. PG/wjs Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

197 TRAMWAY EXTENSION FROM NORTH PIER TO BLACKPOOL NORTH STATION VENUE: SQUARE ONE OFFICES, PICCADILLY STATION MANCHESTER MEETING NOTE 23 SEPTEMBER AM NETWORK RAIL Present: Paul Grocott Blackpool Council Adrian Stott Network Rail Item No. Item Action 1 PG outlined the proposed scheme and route to North Station, and the likely timescales for the works. 2 The original proposal to site the terminus on High Street, adjacent to Blackpool North Station, had been changed. PG identified the current options for the terminus, either on the site of the current Wilkinson s Store, or on the pavement in front of the store. However, both options terminated the proposed tramway extension approximately 100m away from Network Rail tracks. AS stated that he did not see any issues with impact on the station building asset protection, either during construction or during operation. 3 AS asked whether it was necessary to provide a substation for the tramway extension at the proposed terminus location; he advised that substations can provide interference to Network Rail infrastructure. He advised that if it was necessary to build a substation in this area, it should be sited as far away from Blackpool North Station as possible. PG advised that a substation was not envisaged at present, but noted the advice. 4 PG confirmed that the tramway currently operates some 600m away from Blackpool North Station and approximately 60m away from the South Fylde Line, and was not aware of any interference on Network Rail infrastructure. In addition, the new Bombardier trams had passed all of the necessary EMC standard checks and test certificates can be provided. AS confirmed that he would need to discuss the proposals for the extension with the signalling and electrification teams, to see if they had any concerns. AS asked PG to provide copies of the layout drawings, and would confirm any comments received from the signalling and electrification teams. PG Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

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200 Appendix J Scheme Delivery Programme Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

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206 Appendix K TUBA Input Files *********************************************************************************************** ******************************************** Economics v1.9.9 file details (WebTAG Data Book v1.8.1 July 2017) * Source: TUBA ECONOMIC PARAMETERS FILE (22/08/2017) Version Final Release *********************************************************************************************** ******************************************** PARAMETERS TUBA_version the current version of TUBA base_year 2010 defines base year for economic parameters pres_val_year 2010 present value year for discounting GDP_base value of GDP in base year ** Source: TAG Data Book - Table A av_ind_tax 19.0 %average final indirect tax rate ** TAG reference: TAG Data Book, Table A 3.4 (for non-traded), hidden worksheet GHG (for traded) nt_carbdxvalues base year non-traded carbon dioxide values in /tonne(low high central) t_carbdxvalues base year traded carbon dioxide values in /tonne(low high central) *********************************************************************************************** ******************************************** MODES *No. Description 1 Road 2 Bus 3 Rail VEHICLE_TYPE/SUBMODE *No. Mode New_mode P&R Type Description 1 1 N N per Car 2 1 N N per LGV Personal 3 1 N N fre LGV Freight 4 1 N N fre OGV1 5 1 N N fre OGV2 6 2 N N per Bus 7 3 N N per Light Rail 8 3 N N per Heavy rail PERSON_TYPE Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

207 *No. Type(D/P) Description 1 D Driver 2 P Passenger PURPOSE *No. Type(B/C/O) Description 1 B Business 2 C Commuting 3 O Other FUEL_TYPE *No. Sector Name (sector: 1=untraded, sector 2=traded sector) 1 1 Petrol 2 1 Diesel 3 2 Electric TIME_PERIODS *No. Description Comments 1 AM peak (7-10 weekdays) 2 PM peak (4-7 weekdays) 3 Inter-peak (10-4 weekdays) 4 Off-peak (7-7 weekdays) 5 Weekend (weekend) BREAKPOINTS *Description Breakpoint1 Breakpoint2 Breakpoint3... Distance TimeSaving CHARGES *No. Sector Description 1 pri PT fares (private operators) 2 loc PT fares (LA operated) 3 loc LA tolls 4 cen National tolls 5 pri Private tolls 6 loc LA on-street parking 7 loc LA off-street parking 8 pri Private parking DISCOUNT_RATE ** Source: TAG Data Book - Table A ** %change p.a. *Start_yr End_yr Rate VALUE_OF_TIME_ALLOCATION ** Source: TAG Data Book - Table A ** Default VOT Method to be used: Method 1 for Car & Rail (Business) and Method 3 for All Other Modes-Purpose combinations *Vtype/submode Person_type Purpose_type VOT_Method Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

208 VALUE_OF_TIME_METHOD1 ** Source: TAG Data Book - Table A ** pence per hour (in 2010 base year values and prices) *Vtype/submode Person_type Purpose_type U Xmid k Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

209 VALUE_OF_TIME_METHOD2 ** Source: TAG Data Book - Table A ** pence per hour (in 2010 base year values and prices) ** Distance Band 1 (D1) = 0-50 km, Distance Band 2 (D2) = km, Distance Band 3 (D3) = km, Distance Band 4 (D4) = +200km *Vtype/submode Person_type Purpose D1 D2 D3 D Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

210 VALUE_OF_TIME_METHOD3 ** Source TAG Data Book - Table A ** pence per hour (in 2010 base year values and prices) *Vtype/submode Person_type purpose_type VOT VALUE_OF_TIME_GROWTH Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

211 ** Source: TAG Data Book - Table A ** %change per annum from 2010 base year *Start_yr End_yr VOT_Gr_purpose1 VOT_Gr_purpose2 VOT_Gr_purpose Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

212 AV_IND_TAX_CHANGES ** %change per annum from 2010 base year *Start_yr End_yr Growth CHARGE_TAX_RATES ** %base year tax rates *Charge Final Intermediate Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

213 CHARGE_TAX_RATES_CHANGES ** %change per annum from 2010 base year *Start_yr End_yr Charge Final Intermediate FUEL_COST ** Source: TAG Data Book - Table A ** Source: TAG Data Book - Table A 3.3 (CO2e values) ** (In 2010 base year values and prices) *Type Resource(p/unit) Duty(p/unit) VAT(%) CO2_grammes/unit (unit=litre for fuel types 1 & 2; unit=kwh for electric) FUEL_COST_CHANGES ** Source: TAG Data Book -Table A (Derived) & Table A 3.3 CO2 (Derived) ** %change per annum from 2010 base year *Start_yr End_yr Fuel_type Resource Duty VAT CO2_Den_Change Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

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217 CARBDX_VALUE_CHANGES ** Source: TAG Data Book - Table A 3.4 (Non-traded) and hidden worksheet GHG (Traded), Derived *Start_yr End_yr Rel(%)_NT_Lw Abs(t)_NT_Lw Rel(%)_Tr_Lw Abs(t)_Tr_Lw Rel(%)_NT_Hi Abs(t)_NT_Hi Rel(%)_Tr_Hi Abs(t)_Tr_Hi Rel(%)_NT_Ce Abs(t)_NT_Ce Rel(%)_Tr_Ce Abs(t)_Tr_Ce Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

218 Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

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221 FLEET ** Source: TAG Data Book - Table A ** For 2010 base year proportions *Veh_type %Petrol %Diesel %Electric FLEET_CHANGES ** Source: TAG Data Book - Table A (derived) ** %change per annum from 2010 base year *Start_yr End_yr Veh_type %Change_Petrol %Change_Diesel %Change_Electric Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

222 FUEL_CONSUMPTION ** Source: TAG Data Book - Table A Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

223 ** For 2010 base year ** Fuel consumption (l/km) = (a_fuel+b_fuel*v+c_fuel*v^2+d_fuel*v^3)/v where v is speed in km/h *Veh_type Fuel_type a_fuel b_fuel c_fuel d_fuel Cutoff_speed(km/h) E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E E FUEL_EFFICIENCY ** Source: TAG Data Book - Table A ** %change per annum from 2010 base year *Start_yr End_yr Veh_type Fuel_type Change Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

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227 NON_FUEL_VOC ** Source: TAG Data Book - Table A ** For 2010 base year *Veh_type Fuel_type a_nonfuel_wrk b_nonfuel_wrk a_nonfuel_nw b_nonfuel_nw Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

228 NON_FUEL_VOC_CHANGES ** Source: TAG Unit A1.3 para ** Note: Table A shows changes by average car (taking into account changes in FLEET mix) ** %change per annum from 2010 base year *Start_yr End_yr Veh_type Growth NON_FUEL_TAX_RATES ** For 2010 base year ** percentage *Submode Final Intermediate NON_FUEL_TAX_RATES_CHANGES ** %change per annum from 2010 base year *Start_yr End_yr Submode Final Intermediate DEFAULT_PURPOSE_SPLIT ** Source: TAG Data Book - Table A (updated bus for Blackpool) ** For 2010 base year *Vtype/submode Purpose Period1 Period2 Period3 Period4 Period Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

229 DEFAULT_PERSON_FACTORS ** Source: TAG Data Book - Table A ** For 2010 base year *Vtype/submode Purpose Person_type FactorPer1 FactorPer2 FactorPer3 FactorPer4 FactorPer DEFAULT_PERSON_FACTORS_CHANGE ** Source: TAG Data Book - Table A ** %change per annum from 2010 base year *Start_yr End_yr Submode Purpose Person_type ChangePer1 ChangePer2 ChangePer3 ChangePer4 ChangePer PREPARATION&SUPERVISION ** Source: DMRB Volume 13, section The Preparation of Cost Data ** total preparation (by stage & mode) and supervision costs as % of land and construction costs Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

230 *Mode Prep:SI Prep:PC Prep:PR Prep:OP Prep:WC Super Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

231 SCHEME SPECIFIC PARAMETERS PARAMETERS TUBA_version run_name Draft Run do_min_name Do Nothing do_som_name BPN Extension first_yr 2018 horizon_yr 2078 modelled_yrs detail Yes current_yr 2015 print_warn 2000 P&R_car_speed 65.0 zones_as_sectors Yes TIME_SLICES *no. duration(min) annualisation period description HWD * HWD * HWE * LWD * LWE SCHEMES_DM *Mode 1st Construction year Opening_yr Stage DO_MIN_COSTS *Type Mode Funding Cost Price RPI Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

232 DO_MIN_PROFILE *Year Mode %Const %Land %Prep %Super %Maint %Op %Grant %Dev DO_MIN_DELAY_COSTS *Year Mode Business Commuting Other Freight SCHEMES_DS *Mode 1st Construction year Opening_yr Stage DO_SOM_COSTS *Type Mode Funding Cost Price RPI DO_SOM_PROFILE *Year Mode %Const %Land %Prep %Super %Maint %Op %Grant %Dev * DO_SOM_DELAY_COSTS *Year Mode Business Commuting Other Freight BENEFIT_CHANGE *% change p.a. *Start_yr End_yr Submode ChangePer1 ChangePer2 ChangePer3 ChangePer4 ChangePer5 USER_CLASSES *no. Veh/submode purpose person_type INPUT_MATRICES *no. userclasses timeslice type format scenario year factor filename Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

233 1 1 1 P U:\Leeds\PROJECTS\227\9\23\01\Model\TUBA\Run 41 - Sept17 Update\Cube Inputs\DEMAND_UC1_DM_2018_HWD.CSV T U:\Leeds\PROJECTS\227\9\23\01\Model\TUBA\Run 41 - Sept17 Update\Cube Inputs\GJT_UC1_DM_2018_HWD.CSV C U:\Leeds\PROJECTS\227\9\23\01\Model\TUBA\Run 41 - Sept17 Update\Cube Inputs\FARE_UC1_DM_2018_HWD.CSV P U:\Leeds\PROJECTS\227\9\23\01\Model\TUBA\Run 41 - Sept17 Update\Cube Inputs\DEMAND_UC1_DS_2018_HWD.CSV T U:\Leeds\PROJECTS\227\9\23\01\Model\TUBA\Run 41 - Sept17 Update\Cube Inputs\GJT_UC1_DS_2018_HWD.CSV C U:\Leeds\PROJECTS\227\9\23\01\Model\TUBA\Run 41 - Sept17 Update\Cube Inputs\FARE_UC1_DS_2018_HWD.CSV P U:\Leeds\PROJECTS\227\9\23\01\Model\TUBA\Run 41 - Sept17 Update\Cube Inputs\DEMAND_UC1_DM_2033_HWD.CSV T U:\Leeds\PROJECTS\227\9\23\01\Model\TUBA\Run 41 - Sept17 Update\Cube Inputs\GJT_UC1_DM_2033_HWD.CSV C U:\Leeds\PROJECTS\227\9\23\01\Model\TUBA\Run 41 - Sept17 Update\Cube Inputs\FARE_UC1_DM_2033_HWD.CSV P U:\Leeds\PROJECTS\227\9\23\01\Model\TUBA\Run 41 - Sept17 Update\Cube Inputs\DEMAND_UC1_DS_2033_HWD.CSV T U:\Leeds\PROJECTS\227\9\23\01\Model\TUBA\Run 41 - Sept17 Update\Cube Inputs\GJT_UC1_DS_2033_HWD.CSV C U:\Leeds\PROJECTS\227\9\23\01\Model\TUBA\Run 41 - Sept17 Update\Cube Inputs\FARE_UC1_DS_2033_HWD.CSV 13 1 X R 2 X XXXX U:\Leeds\PROJECTS\227\9\23\01\Model\TUBA\DUMMY DISTANCE MATRIX.CSV SECTORS *mode Sector_file_name 3 U:\Leeds\PROJECTS\227\9\23\01\Model\TUBA\Zones_Sectors_ txt Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

234 Appendix L Blackpool Council S.151 Officer Letter Blackpool and Fleetwood Tramway Extension to Blackpool North Station FBC Final

235