Bristol South West Economic Link Option Development Report

Transcription

1 Bristol South West Economic Link Option Development Report Prepared for West of England Local Enterprise Partnership, July 2016

2 TECHNICAL REPORT Bristol South West Economic Link Option Development Report Prepared for West of England Local Enterprise Partnership July The Square Temple Quay Bristol BS1 6DG

3 Contents Section Page Executive Summary... vi Introduction Purpose of this Report Background Joint Spatial Plan/Joint Transport Study/Bristol Airport Joint Spatial Plan Joint Transport Study Bristol Airport Appraisal approach Structure of the remainder of this report Understanding the Current Situation Introduction to Stage 1, Step Current Policies National Planning Policy Framework North Somerset Core Strategy Bristol City Core Strategy Joint Local Transport Plan West of England Strategic Economic Plan Corporate plan Airport Policy Direction Summary of Current Policies Current travel demand and levels of service Bus public transport Rail public transport Public transport access to the Airport Local road network A38 (from Airport to South Bristol Link) Local road network north of South Bristol Link Airport travel demand Baseline Commentary Baseline Environmental Conditions Understanding the Future Context Introduction to Stage 1, Step Future Land Uses and Polices Joint Spatial Plan Strategy All the spatial plan scenarios discussed above will increase demand for the scheme area. Core Strategies Future Changes to the Transport System West of England programme of major schemes Joint Transport Study Airport expansion Future Travel Demands and Levels of Service Need for intervention and scheme objectives Establishing the Need for Future Interventions Introduction to Stage 1, Step Wider Economic Context: Opportunities and Constraints Implications of Intervention Identifying Objectives III

4 CONTENTS Section Page Introduction to Stage 1, Step 4a Proposed objectives for the scheme Defining the Geographical Area of Impact to be addressed by the Intervention Introduction to Stage 1, Step 4b Geographical Area of Impact Option Generation Introduction to Stage 1, Step Modal optioneering Rail existing links to stations Heavy rail direct connection Light rail direct connection Improved Public Transport links BRT Improved Public Transport links bus services Park and Ride Walking/cycling Emerging Technology Highway improvements Route Optioneering Introduction Route Optioneering Description of Proposed Options Initial Sifting Introduction to Stage 1, Step Initial sifting of options against objective Options to take forward Emerging business case Introduction A robust case for change The scheme has the potential to offer high value for money There are commercially viable options There are a range of different options, to provide an affordable solution The scheme is deliverable and well supported Project governance Next Steps Programme Costs for OBC Appendices Appendix A Letters of Support Tables Table 2.1 Local Bus Services along the A38 Corridor Table 2.2 A38 Baseline 2015 Hourly Traffic Volumes (vehicles) Table 2.3 A38 Ratios of Existing Flow to TA 77 99Link Capacities Table 2.4 A38 (between SBL and Bristol Airport) Highways Travel Time Analysis Table 2.5 Passenger Catchment Area and Mode Share Table 3.1 A38 Corridor junction Delays Table 4.1 Employment Opportunities near Bristol Airport and Benchmarks IV

5 CONTENTS Section Table 4.2 Potential Employment Implication of Bristol Airport Access Improvement Scheme Table 4.3 Potential GVA Implication if Bristol Airport Access Improvements Scheme Table 4.4 Comparison of JTS and Scheme Objectives Table 5.1 Comparison of Schemes Options Table 6.1 Assessment of Scheme options Against Scheme Objective Table 7.1 Initial Scheme Costs Table 8.1 OBC Costs Page Figures Figure 1.1 The A38 Corridor Figure 1.2 Local Rail Network Figure 1.3 Airport Location on the Local Road Network Figure 1.4 WebTAG Appraisal Process Figure 2.1 Local Bus Services in South West Bristol Figure 2.2 Historic Traffic Flows on the A38 Figure 2.3 A38 Southbound SBL to Downside Road Daily Travel Time Profile 21 to 27 September Figure 2.4 A38 Northbound (Bristol Airport to South Bristol Link) Time Distance Graph (Highways Analyst Travel Times) Morning Peak Hour, 8:00 9:00am Figure 2.5 A38 Northbound (South Bristol Link to Bristol Airport) Time Distance Graph (Highways Analyst Travel Times) Morning Peak Hour, 8:00 9:00am Figure 2.6 A38 Northbound (Bristol Airport to South Bristol Link) Time Distance Graph (Highways Analyst Travel Times) Evening Peak Hour, 5:00 6:00am Figure 2.7 A38 Northbound (South Bristol Link to Bristol Airport) Time Distance Graph (Highways Analyst Travel Times) Evening Peak Hour, 5:00 6:00am Figure 2.8 GBATS4M Modelling Suite 2 Figure 2.9 GBATS4M Geographical Coverage Figure 2.10 Baseline North of Airport PM (North Somerset) Figure 2.11 Baseline North of Airport PM (South Bristol and City Centre) Figure 2.12 Location and Description of Environmental Constraints Figure 2.13 Topography Figure 2.14 Bristol Bath Green Belt Plan Figure 3.1 Potential Location of Strategic Development Figure 3.2 The study corridor in the context of MetroBus and MetroWest schemes. Figure 3.3 JTS Vision, Goals, challenges and Objectives Figure 3.4 A38 Corridor Current and Future Travel Times Figure 3.5 A38 to Central Bristol Current and Future Travel Times Figure North of Airport PM (North Somerset) Figure North of Airport PM (South Bristol and City Centre) Figure 5.1 Location Plan of A38 Pinch point Scheme Figure 5.2 Location Plan of Scheme Routes Figure 7.1 Project Governance Figure 8.1 Scheme Programme V

6 Executive Summary This Report supports a Major Scheme Development Funding Application for the Bristol South West Economic Link by the West of England LEP to the DfT and as such follows the appropriate guidance. The report sets the context for the scheme development through describing the current and future problems and opportunities in the south west quadrant of the West of England. The figure below shows the transport context of the scheme. Bristol South West Economic Link As with most large schemes that will be a significant enhancement to the transport network, it is not just a single driver that has resulted in the West of England LEP putting forward the Bristol South West Economic Link for consideration under the Large Majors process. There are a number of issues that need to be considered when formulating the detail of the Bristol South West Economic Link. 1. The lack of resilience and capacity within the network means that during peak travel times the A38 struggles to deal with existing demands and reliability issues. This impacts journey time reliability with consequential impacts upon economic competiveness of the West of England. Longer term this can reduce the attractiveness of the area for economic development as the issues impact on the accessibility to jobs and services. Furthermore, disruption on the route results in disruption for the key bus services including the Airport Flyer direct bus service. 2. The emerging Joint Spatial Plan (JSP) is allocating significant housing and employment growth to the West of England area. North Somerset is well placed to be allocated significant growth during the plan period. In order for this growth to be delivered with confidence and in a coherent and sustainable way, it is essential that the supporting infrastructure is in place to address not only existing constraints but also future growth projections and requirements. 3. The Airport has projected significant growth and development over the plan period and to increase its role as the regional airport for the south west and its position as a major economic VI

7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY hub. In order to achieve this, and for the consequent economic development to occur, the transport linkages serving the Airport need to be significantly enhanced. Within this context, this scheme would address issues of resilience, supporting economic growth and realising the benefits of a successful airport and thus could benefit multiple stakeholders in the West of England. That is, an intervention would result in positive economic externalities for the wider West of England economy, in addition to current or future growth aspirations of Bristol Airport. As such, any transport intervention should be viewed in the context of delivering a strategic economic asset which will act as a public good for the betterment of wider society, rather than as an asset that only accrues benefits to a single stakeholder. The proposed scheme objectives are to: Support sub regional and regional economic, employment and housing growth including future growth aspirations of Bristol Airport; To improve connectivity and multi modal surface access provision to and from Bristol Airport ensuring benefits of new infrastructure are shared with local communities; Enhance network resilience and reliability by addressing congestion along key strategic routes to the Airport and the wider sub region; Improving the environment and quality of life for residents and businesses in the area. The initial sifting of the options reveals the heavy rail, light rail, Bus Rapid Transport (BRT), park and ride and on and off line highway improvements meet all of the scheme objectives. VII

8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The pinch point style schemes, may provide some initial congestion relief, but will not provide sufficient capacity on the corridor to accommodate future year growth, and provide multi modal surface access. Option development and further sifting needs to consider the locations/quantum s/phasing of development in the West of England up to 2036 that will be set out in the JSP. The mode/routing of the scheme option will be selected to support the preferred JSP strategy. There is merit in both public transport and highway interventions, recognising the different markets they serve. The Development Funding application, being submitted to DfT in July 2016, will be to develop the scheme or schemes. Part of this work will include the development of an Option Assessment Report, which will consider the multi modal rationale presented in this work in more detail. Seeking to address existing capacity constraints will be integral to seeking to address and deliver wide ranging and ambitious surface access improvements to the Airport and a more resilient highway network. The nature of any network intervention will form part of the development of the outline business case but will include consideration of a step change in multi modal public transport provision to and from Bristol Airport including examination of light and heavy rail opportunities. VIII

9 SECTION 1 Introduction 1.1 Purpose of this Report This Option Development Report describes a significantly large intervention to improve the capacity of the highway network to the south of Bristol, the Bristol South West Economic Link. The scheme is to improve the transport connectivity between Bristol Airport and Bristol. Emerging work on a Joint Spatial Plan (JSP) and Joint Transport Study (JTS) for the West of England authorities has identified the transport network south west of Bristol as limiting resilience and is predicted to be subject to capacity issues between the Airport and Bristol. These problems arise as a result of the need to accommodate anticipated future employment and housing growth and expansion of the Airport. Hence, to accommodate emerging development and consequent traffic growth forecasts, a transformational scheme is required to deliver much needed resilience and cater for future growth as well as improving links to the north of the Airport towards Bristol. The need for the scheme is being promoted by North Somerset Council and Bristol City Council, but moreover has the support from the West of England Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) and particularly businesses in South Bristol and the Airport. Indeed, it is highly likely that the scheme will benefit from a considerable contribution from the private sector to the capital cost, as noted Bristol Airport s supporting letter in Appendix A. This report details the current and predicted future issues and highlights the support and priority that the local businesses and Councils are bringing to the scheme. 1.2 Background As with most large schemes that will be a significant enhancement to the transport network, it is not just a single driver that has resulted in the West of England LEP putting forward the Bristol South West Economic Link for consideration under the Large Majors process. In order to realise the benefits that the scheme could provide, there are compelling reasons to implement the scheme as a single intervention. It is only with a full scheme in place that the issues and constraints detailed within the report can be addressed and the widest economic benefits realised. South Bristol is benefiting from a significant period of regeneration with benefits already being witnessed. Extending these benefits to the south west, encompassing the Airport, will help crystallise and provide further impetus to this regeneration. Additionally it will enable benefits arising from the expansion of the Airport and associated businesses and the accommodation of the significant growth contained in the emerging JSP. The initial assessment of problems and issues has identified both the need to consider the dispersed trip making pattern resulting from the large number of small towns and villages that use the A38 to access Bristol and the more focussed trip making pattern accessing Bristol Airport. Improving accessibility for these two types of trips is likely to result in different solutions; accepting that there is commonality in the function of the potential scheme choices. The guiding principles for the identification of the most appropriate scheme need to consider both the needs of economic development in North Somerset and Bristol City and the specific needs of the Airport as a major local employer and Regional transport hub. The A38 between Bristol Airport and South Bristol is shown on Figure 1.1. The primarily single lane carriageway has sections of 40mph and derestricted speed limits and has limited over taking opportunities. It has frontage residential development and a number of businesses operate along the route. 1 1

10 SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION Figure 1.1: The A38 corridor The A38 is of sub regional and strategic importance. It serves a number of key functions and thus the current constraints on the route have implications for a number of user groups. 1. The A38 serves as a key commuter route into Bristol from towns and villages in North Somerset. It is the only significant route, via numerous side roads, available for many communities. 2. The route provides a strategic link from the M5 Junction 22 and the towns and villages of the northern part of Somerset County to Bristol. 3. The current highway linkage to Bristol Airport lacks sufficient capacity and resilience to cater for current demand at the Airport. The existing network constraint, congestion and unreliable connectivity acts as a throttle to the Airport s and region s economic growth and development potential. There are a number of issues that need to be considered when formulating the detail of the Bristol South West Economic Link. 1. The lack of resilience in the network means that during peak travel times the A38 struggles to deal with existing demands and disruptions such as accidents and impacts upon journey times and reliability with a consequential impact to economic competiveness. Longer term these issues reduce the attractiveness of the area for economic development as they impact on the accessibility to jobs and services. Furthermore, disruption on the route results in disruption for the bus services including the Airport Flyer direct bus service. 2. The emerging JSP is allocating significant housing and employment growth to the West of England area. It is anticipated that North Somerset will be allocated significant growth during the plan period. In order to for this growth to be delivered with confidence, there is a need to ensure that robust, resilience supporting infrastructure is in place. 3. The Airport has indicated that it wishes to develop further and increase its role as the regional airport for the south west. In order to achieve this, and for the consequent economic development to occur, the transport linkages serving the Airport need to be significantly enhanced. 1 2

11 SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION The local rail network in the area is shown on Figure 1.2. It can be seen that the Bristol to Westonsuper Mare line serves the area south west of Bristol. This line continue to Taunton and Exeter and the far south west. Figure 1.2: Local rail network Figure 1.2 shows that this linkage does not follow the A38 corridor and hence any rail route that would include serving the Airport would have to be new route branching off the south west main line. It has been a longstanding ambition to realise a rail link to Bristol Airport. Indeed, as part of the JSP and JTS work, this consideration has been made again. 1.3 Joint Spatial Plan/Joint Transport Study/Bristol Airport The West of England Authorities, supported by the West of England LEP office, are in the process of preparing a JSP and JTS. The Plan and the Study will identify locations for development and schemes to mitigate the transport impact of that development. The two plans will be bold in their concept, seeking to transform accessibility in the area making best use of existing assets whilst making improvements where necessary to overcome pinch points. Whilst these plans are currently at an early stage, the Bristol South West Economic Link scheme development will be informed by and inform these documents and the emerging themes arising from this work. Details of this work are available at: Though only one of the traffic generators in the A38 corridor, Bristol Airport is a significant attractor and destination for trips, both from travellers, employees and trips servicing the various functions consummate with a large and growing regional airport. Therefore, in the consideration of the objectives and benefits of a scheme to improve the capacity of the A38 between Bristol and Bristol Airport, it is necessary to understand the current and future challenges being experience by the Airport. The Airport is a significant employer and provides Bristol with international linkages to benefit existing business and attract new businesses. 1 3

12 SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION Joint Spatial Plan The purpose of the JSP is to consider the long term development needs in the West of England to 2036 and identify strategic locations for growth. This includes identifying overall requirements for housing and employment land, the most appropriate locations for housing and employment growth, and transport and other infrastructure requirements in the Plan area. The development of the JSP to date has been: A signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the four West of England authorities to work together to understand and plan strategically for the future developments needs of the sub region; Issues and options public consultation between November 2015 and January 2016; Publication of an issues and options paper to the public; A suite of supporting documents to the issues and options paper which include a transport study, strategic housing market assessments, sustainability appraisal, flood risk, ecosystem evidence, habitats regulation and infrastructure papers; and Since the consultation, progress has been made on the assessment of alternative spatial scenarios to deliver the required housing and employment requirements. This has examined the impacts on the network and the need for mitigation including major public transport schemes to promote modal shift and highway improvements to tackle congestion impacts. The overall timetable for the JSP preparation involves the publication of the first draft for consultation in the summer/autumn of 2016 followed by the publication of the submission plan in spring 2017 with examination in the summer/autumn of Joint Transport Study The purpose of the JTS is to provide a clear direction for the long term development of transport systems in the West of England to 2036 and beyond. This will follow on from the current Joint Local Transport Plan (JLTP) which sets investment priorities to The JTS will also inform, and be informed by, the Joint Spatial Plan, and will therefore consider alternative spatial scenarios and facilitate work to identify a preferred spatial strategy. The development of the JTS to date has been as follows: Issues and options public consultation from November 2015 to January February This consulted the public on the assessment of current issues, formulation of objectives and the development of possible transport solutions; Preparation of a Key Principles Report which was published in the public domain and supported the initial public consultation. The purpose of this technical report was to review the current policy context, identify key challenges, set clear objectives and develop the guiding principles for the development of a wide range of strategic options for consideration through the JTS; and Following consultation, work is currently progressing on the development on the initial long list of interventions and scheme concepts. This included scheme definition and high level modelling. This is being taken forward to create a reference case strategy which includes those schemes with a relatively strong strategic, economic and delivery case to address the problems on the network from population, housing and employment growth to 2026 and background growth in travel demand to Bristol Airport Airports are widely recognised as economic enablers, central to driving growth and development in the economies within which they are embedded. They are considered to be crucial to maintenance and growth of regional economies and play a key functioning role in ensuring a connected and accessible transport network at a regional, national and international level. 1 4

13 SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION The location of Bristol Airport is shown on Figure 1.3. Figure 1.3: Airport location on the local road network 1.4 Appraisal approach The assessment in this report has been undertaken line with the DfT appraisal process is shown in the Figure

14 SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION Figure 1.4: WebTAG Appraisal Process This report sets out: Step 1 Understanding current context and conditions; Step 2 Understanding future context and conditions; Step 3 Identifying the need for the intervention; Step 4 Identifying objectives and defining the geographical area; Step 5 Generating options; and Step 6 Sifting options (partial sifting, more assessment would be needed to complete this step). Subsequent to this Option Development Report further work will be undertaken to develop the scheme including: Optioneering and scheme development (plans and cost); Environmental assessment; Cost benefit assessment; Comparison of the scheme with a do nothing scenario and alternative scheme options; and Consideration of stakeholder views. The further technical work will enable the following steps appraisal work to be completed. Stage 1 Appraisal Work Step 6: Sifting options (full); 1 6

15 SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION Step 7: Development and assessment of potential options; Option Assessment Report; and Appraisal Specification Report Stage 2 Appraisal Work Strategic Outline Business Case; Outline Business Case; and Final Business Cases 1.5 Structure of the remainder of this report The remainder of this Report is structured as per the stages of the appraisal framework. This Report focuses on the initial steps of Stage 1, Option Development, and hence the report is structured as follows: Chapter 2 Step 1: Understanding the current situation; Chapter 3 Step 2: Understanding the future situation; Chapter 4 Step 3 to Step 4b: Need for intervention and scheme objectives; Chapter 5 Step 5: Option generation; Chapter 6 Step 6: Initial sifting; Chapter 7 Emerging business case; and Chapter 8 Next steps 1 7

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17 SECTION 2 Understanding the Current Situation 2.1 Introduction to Stage 1, Step 1 The tasks undertaken to inform this stage of the work were: Policy review of transport and other policies; Review traffic count data in the study; Review GBATS base year model information about current issues; Identify and map transport constraints; and Map the physical constraints/opportunities. 2.2 Current Policies In this section, the pertinent national, regional and local policies for the scheme are outlined. Not unsurprisingly these set the context for and support economic growth taking advantage of the momentum that the West of England has generated in term of regeneration and housing and employment growth. Also outlined is the future airport strategy for the UK and in particular recent government guidance on airport surface access strategies and the benefits to the local economy of maximising and capturing the benefits of having an airport with good access National Planning Policy Framework The National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) sets out the planning policies to achieve sustainable development. The NPPF seeks to promote growth whilst creating a high quality built environment underpinned by vibrant communities. The pertinent aspects of the NPPF policy being: Promoting sustainable transport (policy 4): This policy supports development that reduces greenhouse gases and reduces congestion, facilitates the use of sustainable modes of transport and develops strategies for the provision of viable infrastructure. Requiring good design (policy 7): Good design is seen as a key aspect of sustainable development and indivisible from good planning. Good design applies to individual buildings, public and private spaces and wider area development schemes. Promoting healthy communities (policy 8): Developments can contribute to promoting healthy communities by providing safe environments free from crime, good access, and protecting and enhancing walking and cycling routes. There is a presumption in the NPPF in favour of sustainable development which is underpinned by a number of core principles as follows: To proactively drive and support sustainable economic development to deliver the infrastructure that the country needs; To support the transition to a low carbon future in a changing climate; To contribute to conserving and enhancing the natural environment and reducing pollution; and To actively manage patterns of growth to make the fullest possible use of public transport, walking and cycling. The promotion of sustainable modes of transport is intrinsically linked to the above. The NPPF aims to integrate planning and transport by noting that transport policies can help facilitate sustainable development as well as contributing to wider sustainability, health and economic objectives. Sustainable transport also improves accessibility to consumer and labour markets for businesses and improving access to jobs for the labour force. 2 1

18 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION North Somerset Core Strategy The Core Strategy, adopted in March 2014, sets out the broad long term vision, objectives and strategic planning policies for North Somerset up to It sets out a vision for North Somerset which states: By 2026 North Somerset will be a more prosperous district, with reduced inequalities throughout. Its coastal and rural setting, underpinned by a rich heritage will strongly influence new development. Development will respond to the challenge of climate change, the move to more sustainable energy use and be characterised by high quality design that contributes to creating successful, thriving places. Weston super Mare will be established as a major economic centre catering for the employment, retail, social and leisure needs of its population whilst attracting visitors to support this role. New development areas will be established, creating mixed use communities with a distinct sense of place valued for their high standards of sustainability, quality of life and inspired design. Clevedon, Nailsea and Portishead will increasingly support their populations and play less of a dormitory role. The villages will cater for rural needs with their character and that of the open countryside protected from intrusive development. North Somerset contains two regionally important facilities: Bristol Airport located on the A38 some 4.5 miles from the edge of Bristol, but which would benefit from measures to further improve accessibility from Bristol and Weston, and the deep sea port of Royal Portbury Dock located at the mouth of the River Avon. The priority objectives being: Ensure that major development proposals are delivered in tandem with the necessary improvements in physical and social infrastructure such as flood mitigation, healthcare facilities, M5 junction 21 improvements at Weston super Mare, junction 19 improvements at Portishead and access improvements to Bristol Airport, and that appropriate delivery mechanisms including effective tariffs/ developer contributions are in place; and Prioritise employment growth throughout North Somerset to support greater self containment, in particular by ensuring that housing development is delivered in step with employment growth, brownfield opportunities are maximised, and that small and medium enterprises are supported. Pertinent policies with the Core Strategy include: Policy CS10 Transport Movement Travel management policies and development proposals that encourage an improved and integrated transport network and allow for a wide choice of modes of transport as a means of access to jobs, homes, services and facilities will be encouraged and supported. Policy CS20 Supporting a successful economy The Core Strategy seeks to provide at least 10,100 additional employment opportunities , including around 114 hectares of land for B1, B2 and B8 uses (business, general industrial and storage and distribution), and to address the existing imbalance at Weston super Mare. The overall approach is employment led in order to achieve a more sustainable alignment between jobs and the economically active population across towns and villages in North Somerset. This seeks to increase their sustainability, selfcontainment, decrease out commuting, provide for a range of local jobs and reduce carbon emissions from unsustainable car use. Priority will be given to the reuse of previously developed land and the safeguarding of sites in existing economic use. 2 2

19 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION CS22: Tourism strategy New, improved and replacement visitor and tourist facilities and accommodation will be supported across the district provided they are: o An appropriate scale and improve the quality and diversity of the tourist offer; o maximise, where possible, any opportunities for access by means other than the car; o Support conservation and economic development objectives; o Have no adverse implications for the environment, local amenity and character of the area. CS23: Bristol Airport Proposals for the development of Bristol Airport will be required to demonstrate the satisfactory resolution of environmental issues, including the impact of growth on surrounding communities and surface access infrastructure. The policy relates to the development of Bristol Airport only. Off site car parking is regulated separately (Replacement Local Plan Policy T/12) and the Core Strategy proposes no change to this approach. Development of the Airport is led by its owners, whose responsibility it is to ensure that the environmental impacts of growth are addressed to the satisfaction of the council or other relevant decision maker Bristol City Core Strategy The City of Bristol Core Strategy outlines the main planning policies for the city up to The pertinent proposals in terms of the scheme is BCS1 South Bristol, BCS9 Green infrastructure and BCS10 Transport Access. The Core Strategy notes the importance of the Airport to the City s infrastructure but given the site s location in North Somerset does not elaborate further about proposals to improve connectivity Joint Local Transport Plan 3 The Joint Local Transport Plan 3 (JLTP3) outlines the transport strategy for the period It has five goals: reducing carbon emissions, supporting economic growth, improving accessibility, providing for a safe, healthy and secure population, and enhancing quality of life. The key strategy of the plan is to support economic growth by providing an affordable, low carbon, accessible, integrated, healthy, safe and reliable transport network. North Somerset is well served by the M4 and M5 motorways and by extensive rail links to London, South West, South Wales and the Midlands. Bristol Airport is one of the fastest growing regional airports in the UK and offers access to 144 destinations in 28 countries. The Port of Bristol is one of the most productive and technically advanced in Europe. The plan outlines the West of England as one of the fastest growing economies in the UK and a critical hub for the South West s economy. The plan highlights major transport improvements as a key priority for businesses. The plan aims to synchronise transport investment with major development and regeneration areas, such as Bristol s Temple Quarter Enterprise Zone. The Plan states the West of England s large population, size and diverse economic activity generate significant amounts of freight. There are also international, national and regional flows of goods through the West of England, reinforced by its position at the intersection of two motorways, two mainline railways, the presence of the Port of Bristol and Bristol Airport. Both are planning to increase their throughput. This will have an effect on the area s transport infrastructure and require integration with JLTP3 proposals as follows: Discuss with the Port of Bristol and Bristol Airport ways and means of accommodating changes in the pattern of freight movements generated by their activities; Enhance the highway network information available to the travelling public, business, the freight industry and service providers; and Identify with road freight interests, opportunities for enhanced lorry parking provision. 2 3

20 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION West of England Strategic Economic Plan The Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) prepared by West of England LEP outlines how the region will achieve sustainable economic growth over the plan period. Specifically, the SEP was prepared to support the West of England s attempts to secure government funding to assist economic development in the region between 2015 and 2021, via the Local Growth Deals initiative. Within this context, the SEP aims to facilitate the creation of more than 25,000 jobs and develop an economy worth around 25bn per year. Our economy is now worth over 30bn and we contribute some 0.6bn to the Treasury annually). The LEP vision is to encourage sustainable economic growth and the creation of substantial numbers of new private sector jobs by: Supporting growth of key sectors; Driving innovation and creativity and the development of new technologies, products and services; Skilling the workforce to meet needs of our businesses now and in the future. Retaining existing talent, raising aspirations and marketing talent to inward investors; Assisting business start up and growth; and Making the West of England highly attractive to inward investors and existing companies, by securing improved transport, environmental and broadband infrastructure that business needs; providing access to a range of employment land and premises; facilitate new housing and community structure. Maintaining an outstanding physical environment and high quality of life to retain and attract highly skilled workers and graduates. Transport is critical to support planned economic growth in the West of England. The report produced by Atkins for the West of England called Unlocking Our Potential: The Economic Benefits of Transport Investment in the West of England, found that the planned 340m programme of major transport schemes will unlock 20,000 jobs and generate 1.2b in GVA per annum by Corporate plan NSC s Corporate Plan contains an ambition to Enable sustainable housing growth which protects our natural heritage and built environment and the special character of our villages. To deliver this, the Corporate Plan signposts the Local plan Core Strategy, the JLTP and the JSP Airport Policy Direction The aviation industry is integral to the UK s economy, providing and safeguarding productivity growth, employment opportunities and the UK s competitive advantage within the global economy. The following policies are relevant to this work Aviation Policy Framework In light of the importance of airport infrastructure to the UK, there is a range of Governmentsponsored policies and reports guiding the sectors future operations. The long term strategy of the UK s aviation industry is currently set out in the Aviation Policy Framework, published by the UK Government in The Framework establishes high level objectives for the industry and outlines the policies which will be followed to achieve these aims. The main focus of the Framework is to emphasize the benefits of aviation and managing the industries environmental impacts. With regard to identifying the benefits of aviation, the Framework identifies economic growth and development as the main goal of Government. Within this context, the aviation sector is portrayed as a major contributor to the UK s economy, acting to catalyse wider economic growth and development. As a result, the following objectives are central to the Framework: Ensuring the UK is one of the best connected countries in the world; Increasing links to emerging markets, in order to position the UK to take advantage of economic growth opportunities; 2 4

21 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION Providing long term planning and investment opportunities for airlines and airport infrastructure (including supporting surface access infrastructure); Minimising climate change and noise impacts Airports Commission To support the Framework, the Airports Commission was established in The role of the Commission was to advise the Government on ways to expand airport capacity in the UK, culminating in their Final Report in summer Although the Commission primarily focussed on expanding capacity at the South East s major airports, the principles underpinning the rationale for expansion are consistent with the drivers for expansion at other airports in the UK: Air connectivity is crucial to supporting the UK businesses and the wider economy; Air connectivity is important to supporting leisure activities; Requirement to enhance resilience and reduce delays; Support domestic and international connectivity; Unlock positive socio externalities for the wider economy. The Commission also identified the importance of surface access to airports, highlighting the issue as a key priority for future Government policy on airports National Policy Statement on Airports To build on the work of the Airport Commission and the principles laid out in the Aviation Policy Framework, the Government is currently working on a draft National Policy Statement (NPS) on airports. Whilst the NPS is likely to be driven primarily by airport expansion in the south east, it is also expected to clarify the planning process for airport expansion in relation to integrated transport planning and surface access improvements Surface Transport to Airports The importance of surface access is outlined in the House of Commons Transport Committee s Surface transport to airports Report (2016). Surface transport in the vicinity of airports affects multiple transport users, including staff, local commuters, airport passengers and freight operators. Therefore, the Report acknowledges the strategic level importance of surface access improvements and recommends the prioritisation of enhancement initiatives. The primary reasons cited for improving surface transport to airports are: Retain competitiveness of UK airports; To capitalise on economic growth and development opportunities provided by airport expansion and development; and To encourage modal shift from private vehicles to public transport, particularly rail. The Report establishes that poor surface access can inhibit airport connectivity by reducing passengers, employees and freight operators mode choices, adding to the complexity of journeys and adding to journey times. This can dissuade patronage by adversely affecting the experience of these airport users, thus constraining an airport s ability to compete. In particular, these issues have already been highlighted by the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport in the context of Bristol Airport, where poor surface access is viewed as a competitive disadvantage. As a consequence of these trends, poor surface access can curtail economic growth and development in an airport s sphere of influence, for example, by reducing tourism. The Airport Operators Association highlighted the close linkages between the aviation and tourism industries, claiming that poor surface access was a deterrent to developing the tourist economy in some of the UK s regions. This is particularly the case where inadequate public transport systems are provided at airports, given that inbound international travellers typically rely on public transport connections to explore the destinations they are visiting. 2 5

22 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION The effects of poor surface access on economic growth and development is a particular concern at regional airports, where inadequate surface transport can lead to lost market share to larger, better connected and more easily accessed airports elsewhere. For these reasons, the Report identifies surface access to airports as the single most important issue to address for the aviation industry going forward. In terms of encouraging modal shift, the Report demonstrates the critical role surface transport improvements, especially public transport provision, can play in reconciling the environmental and sustainability targets and growth and expansion aspirations of the industry. The Report also illustrates the potential for beneficial socio economic externalities from providing improved public transport access to airports. Specifically, the Report advocates provision of flexible and low cost public transport to support airport employees in low paid service sector jobs who reside in dispersed labour supply catchments. Given the clear importance of airport access to the local and wider economy and the role it can play in achievement of key environmental and sustainability objectives, it is understandable that current Government policy requires all airport development proposals to incorporate surface access improvements that are commensurate with the anticipated level of expansion. The approach also acknowledges the fact that surface access improvements can provide transport and economic benefits to many stakeholders, including individual airports. Where improvements create a strategic economic asset that acts as a public good by providing transport and economic benefits to multiple private and public stakeholders, a multiple funding stream approach to delivering transport interventions may be appropriate. At this stage, it is also worth noting that a multi funded approach to transport interventions is likely to deliver more comprehensive improvements than funding from single sources. This means that the resulting transport and economic impacts are likely to be larger and more widely spread when multiple funding sources collaborate to deliver network improvements Regional Airports The Housing Commons Briefing Paper on Regional Airports 1 refers to the twenty five largest airports in the UK outside London and the South East as regional airports. This includes Bristol Airport and other airports in the South West (e.g. Bournemouth). From 2003, government policy relating to regional airports was underpinned by the White Paper, The Future of Air Transport, which promoted expansion of regional airports to support regional economic development, provide passengers with greater choice, and reduce reliance on airports in the South East. This approach, termed a predict and provide approach was replaced by an approach that sought to make best use of existing capacity, as outlined in the Aviation Policy Framework. Nevertheless, regional airports were still recognised as vital contributors to economic growth and development, providing vital connectivity, significant employment and acting as focal points for business development. The economic importance of regional airports is noticeable at national and regional scales. At the national level, the UK s regional airports have an important role to play in providing overall connectivity, providing access to London from every region of the country, which will help deliver benefits across the UK as a whole. At the regional level, smaller airports play a role as economic and social enablers helping to drive, maintain and grow regional economies. They allow businesses and people to transport themselves, visitors, customers and products nationally and internationally, which facilitates both exports and internal investment. Within this context, the importance of good connectivity to regional airports is clear. 1 Number SN00323, 26 April

23 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION Following recent passenger surveys, the Civil Aviation Authority are clear that not all regional airports have an appropriate balance between public and private transport options. They also question whether passengers are aware of all their options for getting to regional airports. The Surface Transport to Airports report reiterates the funding position regarding delivery of surface access improvements to regional airports, stating that where a scheme has a wider range of beneficiaries, the Government will consider the need for additional public funding on a case by case basis, in conjunction with other relevant stakeholders. This approach builds on the recommendations of the Airport Commission, which advocates dialogue between central Government, local authorities, LEPs and airport operators to ensure surface access requirements are fully considered when local transport investment is prioritised. The Aviation Policy Framework recommends that, at airports outside the South East, scope exists for LEPs to develop local strategies to maximise the catalytic effects of airports to attract business and support growth. This could include the development of business parks in proximity to regional airports, to take advantage of the excellent transport links offered by the presence of the Airport and suitable surface access Summary of Current Policies The review of current policies indicates the importance of supporting and sustaining economic growth, an enhanced and integrated transport network and improved accessibility to employment and services. The policies clearly link transport enhancements as one of the ways of unlocking economic growth and prosperity. Further growth and expansion at Bristol Airport has been identified as an ongoing issue with a need to manage the impacts on surrounding communities and access routes. 2.3 Current travel demand and levels of service In this section, existing traffic conditions along the A38 towards the Airport are assessed. The analysis considers recent traffic flow data against notional link capacities and the impact on travel times along this stretch of the A38. The assessment also considers the current operation and capacity junctions along the A38, the level of service and the impact these have on journey times. Finally, the analysis considers the existing modal split of users to and from Bristol Airport along the corridor Bus public transport The A38 corridor towards Bristol City Centre is used by local bus services, as set out in Table 2.1. Table 2.1: Local bus services along the A38 corridor Service number Operator Route Approx frequency Mon Fri daytime A1 (Airport Flyer) First Bristol Bus Station Bristol Airport Every 10 mins per hour in both directions A4 Bath Bus Company Bath Bristol Airport Every 30 mins per hour in both directions 24 First Ashton Vale Southmead Hospital Every 10 mins per hour in both directions 52 Abus Broadmead Hengrove Park Every 10 mins per hour in both directions 75 First Hengrove Cribbs Causeway Every 10 mins per hour in both directions 76 First Hengrove Cribbs Causeway Every 10 mins per hour in both directions 97 North Somerset Council Dundry and Winford Bristol Airport Every 40 mins across most hours in both directions 135 Citistar Lulsgate Bottom Weston super Mare 1 bus per day 216 National Express Cardiff Bristol Airport (does not call at any stops along the A38) Every 2 hours in both directions 2 7

24 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION Service number Operator Route Approx frequency Mon Fri daytime 460 Abus Whitchurch Chew Valley School One bus in morning and school afternoon peaks school term only SouthWest Falcon Stagecoach Plymouth Bristol Airport Bristol (does not call at any stops along the A38) Every hour in both directions Within the south west part of Bristol, there are a number of services as shown in Figure 2.1. This includes the Long Ashton Park and Ride which comprises 1,500 car parking spaces with a 10 to 15 minute service to locations across central Bristol. Figure 2.1: Local bus services in South West Bristol Rail public transport Across the West of England, there are a number of passenger railway lines that radiate out of Bristol Temple Meads as shown in Figure 1.3. These include the long distance lines that link Bristol Temple Meads and Bristol Parkway with London, Reading, Swindon and South Wales (Great Western Main Line and South Wales Main Lines) and the cross country lines that link with Cheltenham, Birmingham and the north and Exeter, Plymouth and the far South West. These longer distance services are complemented by regional express services that link Bristol and Bath with South Wales and Southampton and Portsmouth. The final tier are the local services which comprise: Bristol Parkway to Weston super Mare (hourly) that includes stops at Filton Abbey Wood, Stapleton Road, Lawrence hill, Bristol Temple Meads, Bedminster, Parson Street, Nailsea and Backwell, Yatton, Worle and Weston Milton; Cardiff to Taunton (hourly) that comprise stops at Patchway, Filton Abbey Wood, Bristol Temple Meads and stops to Weston super Mare, Highbridge and Bridgwater; 2 8

25 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION Great Malvern to Weymouth (hourly) with stops at Yate, Bristol Parkway, Bristol Temple Meads, Keynsham, Oldfield Park, Bath Spa and stops to Westbury (some services terminate) and Weymouth; and Bristol Temple Meads to Severn Beach (40 mins) with stops that include Lawrence Hill, Stapleton Road, Montpelier, Redland, Clifton Down, stations to Avonmouth (some services terminate) and Severn Beach. At present, there is no railway serving the A38 corridor. The Bristol Taunton Exeter railway runs broadly parallel to the A38, but follows a route nearer the coast between Bristol and Bridgwater, passing through Weston super Mare. Hence, while the railway and A38 are close together in Bedminster and cross at the Parson Street gyratory, their alignments diverge, being some 5km apart for most of the distance between Bristol and Bridgewater Public transport access to the Airport The nearest railway station to Bristol Airport is Nailsea and Backwell (straight line distance around 5km). However, by road this station is located between 6km and 13km from the Airport depending on the route used. The next nearest stations are Yatton (7.5km) and Parson Street (9km). However, most routes between Nailsea and Backwell station and the Airport utilise comparatively minor roads, because there are no direct main roads, and none of which are particularly suitable for significant traffic or regular buses; note that 13km is the distance of the most suitable (or least unsuitable) route via the A370, B3130 Barrow Gurney and A38. Yatton station is similarly not well linked to Bristol Airport by road. Hence, the main railway station for Bristol Airport is Bristol Temple Meads station. The distance to the Airport is 12km, which compares well against alternative stations, and by providing the link to Bristol Temple Meads, the main City Centre station, there is an excellent choice of direct rail services available. The routes chosen by Airport Flyer is the A38 as there is no realistic viable alternative presently. Thus, a regular (24 hour, 7 day a week) link is provided by the Airport Flyer Express bus service between Bristol Bus Station, Bristol Temple Meads railway station and the Airport. The Airport Flyer Express also passes near Parson Street Station, with stops on the A38 at Parson St/West Street (for trips to the Airport) and at Chessel Street (for trips from the Airport), though neither of these stops is particularly close to Parson Street Station (the former is around 160m from the station entrance and latter more than 300m). The limited number of train services at Parson Street compared to Temple Meads, as well as their proximity, means that Airport users travelling by train are better interchanging with the Airport Flyer at Bristol Temple Meads station Local road network A38 (from Airport to South Bristol Link) The A38 has varied route characteristics, as described below. Coming out from North Side Road, which leads to Bristol Airport, onto the newly built roundabout which provides footpaths, pedestrian crossings and lighting. Traveling East towards Bristol the A38 has a number of driveway accesses to residential homes and laybys for bus stops. On reaching the first signalised junction, which connects the A38 with Downside Road, the existing network provide paths and crossings for pedestrians, along with businesses and residential homes accessing the A38 via driveways. There is provision for a right turn stacking lane for the West Lane road. Carrying on from there footpaths and lighting are provided. This section of the A38 also accommodates numerous access to residential properties, businesses and farm accesses straight onto the A38. From Currells Lane there is a footpaths and street lighting is provided this continues on towards Naish Lane. 2 9

26 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION From Freemans Lane to Dail Lane is a single road widths in both direction. There are two lanes going up the hill towards Bristol Airport. However there is hatching in the outside lane. Also along this section again access to residential homes, business and farm land is accessed straight on to the A38. Along the route there are provisions for right turners to stack in a dedicated right turn lane, this is also true for the bus stops which are dedicated laybys, with islands close by for pedestrians to cross. The turn for Barrow Lane poses a right turn stacking lane and just beyond the junction a layby for a bus stop is provided with an island for pedestrians. From Hobbs Lane to the next major junction, which the A38 and Barrow Street join, is two lanes going uphill towards Bristol Airport, which allows for overtaking. The signalised junction itself provided dedicated turning lanes for Barrow Street. The A38 then returns to a single lane in both directions, with no overtaking allowed. Yanley Lane, on the A38, is where the joining of the A38 and the proposed South Bristol Link would join. The route from the A38 Bristol Airport to the proposed South Bristol Link road there is no dedicated cycle lane. There is provision for pedestrians via footpaths, with street lighting and a number of island crossings with dropped kerbs at certain junctions. The A38 towards Bristol consists only of a single carriageway with limited overtaking possible. The majority of the A38 is set to national speed limit with the occasional speed reductions to around development. The route does not provide a consistent, high quality corridor for all transport users A38 Traffic Volumes Traffic data shows weekday traffic volumes on the A38 have plateaued, see Figure 2.2. Figure 2.2: Historic traffic flows on the A38 Traffic count information for the A38 corridor has been collated from three Automatic Traffic Counter (ATC) sites and a turning count as follows: A38 ATC north of Dial Lane: 2015 average daily flows (term time only); A38 ATC north of Yanley Lane: 2015 average daily flows (term time only); and A38/Downside Road/West Lane turning count: 26 June

27 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION This traffic data has been examined to derive weekday AM and PM peak hourly flows as well as peak hourly flows occurring on the weekend. These are summarised in Table 2.2. Table 2.2: A38 Baseline 2015 Hourly Traffic Volumes (vehicles) Location Weekday AM Peak Weekday PM Peak Weekend Peak N'bound S'bound N'bound S'bound N'bound S'bound North of Airport Rbt n/a n/a North of West Lane n/a n/a North of Dial Lane North of Yanley Lane The baseline traffic flows shown in Table 2.2 highlights that current volumes on the A38 are in the range of 800 to 1,400 vehicles per hour with the highest volumes of circa 1,400 vehicles per hour southbound, evident during the weekday PM peak to the south of the route on the section between the Airport roundabout and Downside Road. Existing peak hourly traffic volumes have been compared with notional link capacities derived from DMRB TA Whilst this provides capacities for urban roads, the presence of frontage development and restricted speeds along much of the A38 means that it is feasible for these capacities to apply. They also provide a useful guide for assessing whether the current link standard is suitable for current volumes using the route, see Table 2.3. Table 2.3: A38 Ratios of Existing Flow to TA Link Capacities Location Type Lanes Capacity Weekday AM Peak Weekday PM Peak Weekend Peak n/b s/b n/b s/b n/b s/b North of Airport Rbt UAP % 64% 79% 88% n/a n/a North of West Lane UAP % 46% 56% 72% n/a n/a North of Dial Lane UAP % 45% 52% 62% 60% 55% North of Yanley Lane UAP % 56% 53% 66% 56% 56% The comparison of existing volumes and TA link capacities shown in Table 2.3 highlights that the section between Bristol Airport roundabout and Downside Road is operating close to theoretical link capacity, particularly in the southbound direction in the weekday PM peak hour where volumes are 88 per cent of potential capacity A38 Travel Times NSC has supplied travel time monitoring data from September 2015 southbound between South Bristol Link and Downside Road (see Figure 2.3). This shows that typical travel times southbound along the route are around six minutes equating to an average speed of 38 miles per hour (mph). 2 11

28 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION Figure 2.3: A38 Southbound SBL to Downside Road Daily Travel Time Profile 21 to 27 September :00 20:00 Time (mm:ss) 16:00 12:00 08:00 04:00 07:00 09:00 11:00 13:00 15:00 17:00 19:00 Mon 21st Tue 22nd Wed 23rd Thu 24th Fri 25th Sat 26th Sun 27th However, the travel time data also highlights a notable spike in travel times during the Friday afternoon evening period with travel times increasing to around 16 minutes, equating to a mean speed of 14mph. Travel time data supplied by NSC for other weeks indicates that this significant increase in delay during Friday afternoon and evening peak periods is a regular occurrence. Travel time data for the A38 corridor has also been supplied from the Highways Analyst database (formerly Strat e gis). This provides mean speed and travel time data for discrete sections of the route from data aggregated over user defined periods. The data supplied reflects travel times for June to July 2015 (term time only). This has been extracted for the weekday AM (8:00 9:00am) and PM (5:00 6:00pm) peak hours. The output from the Highways Analyst database is summarised in Table 2.4 showing typical route mean speeds and travel times by direction. The output confirms that typical travel times along the route are around six minutes, although the data also highlights much higher southbound travels times of 11 minutes during the weekday PM peak hour with mean speeds falling to around 23mph. Table 2.4: A38 (between SBL and Bristol Airport) Highways Travel Time Analysis Summary Output AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour N'bound S'bound N'bound S'bound Mean Speed (mph) Travel Time (mins) 6:17 6:40 6:56 11:04 The data has also been used to produce time distance diagrams for northbound and southbound routes for the AM and PM peak hours (see Figures 2.4 to 2.7). Examination of the graphs shows that the main sources of delay are, not surprisingly, the Downside Road and Barrow Street traffic signals. During the PM peak there is a notable increase in delays southbound from Freemans Lane. 2 12

29 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION Figure 2.4: A38 Northbound (Bristol Airport to South Bristol Link) Time Distance Graph (Highways Analyst Travel Times) Morning Peak Hour, 8:00 9:00am Time (s) Barrow St Signals 100 Downside Rd Signals Distance (m) Figure 2.5: A38 Southbound (South Bristol Link to Bristol Airport) Time Distance Graph (Highways Analyst Travel Times) Morning Peak Hour, 8:00 9:00am Downside Rd Signals 300 Time (s) Barrow St Signals Distance (m) 2 13

30 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION Figure 2.6: A38 Northbound (Bristol Airport to South Bristol Link) Time Distance Graph (Highways Analyst Travel Times) Evening Peak Hour, 5:00 6:00pm Time (s) Barrow St Signals Downside Rd Signals Distance (m) Figure 2.7: A38 Southbound (South Bristol Link to Bristol Airport) Time Distance Graph (Highways Analyst Travel Times) Evening Peak Hour, 5:00 6:00pm Downside Rd Signals 500 Time (s) Barrow St Signals Distance (m) A38 Junction Operation A38/Downside Road Signals NSC supplied an existing LinSig model of the A38/Downside Road traffic signal junction. Examination of this model, which was built using a 2014 turning count, shows that the signals are already operating some 10 to 16 per cent in excess of capacity with notable queuing on the A38 northbound 2 14

31 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION and Downside Road arms in the AM peak and the A38 southbound and Downside Road in the PM peak. The LinSig model indicates that the typical peak capacity of the traffic signals is some 1300 to 1400 vehicles per hour in each direction on the A38 and 230 to 300 vehicles per hour on Downside Road. As noted, existing volumes on the A38 reach up to around 1400 vehicles per hour southbound during the PM peak. Consequently, this junction is therefore likely to constitute a major bottleneck along the route. A38/Barrow Street Signals A LinSig model has also been developed for the A38/Barrow Street signals using controller information supplied by NSC. As there is no existing turning count for the site meaning that it is not possible to produce a baseline model at this time, so instead, the model has been used to estimate approximate capacities for the signals. Assuming a 140 second cycle time and 15 second durations for the southbound right turn and side road stages, the available capacity to the A38 mainline is around 1,300 to 1700 vehicles per hour depending on usage of secondary ahead lanes. Side road capacity for Barrow Street is approximately 300 vehicles per hour A38 Corridor Usage Analysis of the current origin destination patterns on the A38 have been undertaken using a transport model. This analysis has been undertaken using the updated GBATS4M (Greater Bristol Area Transport Study Metro Model). The GBATS4M model consists of: A Highway Assignment Model representing vehicle based movements across the Greater Bristol area for a 2013 autumn weekday morning peak hour (08:00 09:00), an average inter peak hour (10:00 16:00) and an evening peak hour (17:00 18:00); A Public Transport (PT) Assignment Model representing bus and rail based movements across the same area and time periods; and A five stage multi modal incremental Variable Demand Model (VDM) that forecasts changes in trip frequency and choice of main mode, time period of travel, destination, and sub mode choice, in response to changes in generalised costs across the 12 hour period (07:00 19:00). The GBATS4M highway model is closely integrated with the GBATS4M PT model. The two models use different software packages (SATURN and EMME, respectively) but are identical in terms of road network structure, and zone system. The bus routes and frequencies in the PT model are used in the highway model. The GBATS4M highway model is fully integrated within the GBATS4M VDM. The GBATS4M highway model provides highway transport costs to the GBATS4M VDM which, in turn, provides trip matrices for the GBATS4M highway model. The relationship between the elements of the modelling system is shown in Figure

32 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION Figure 2.8: GBATS4M Modelling Suite The GBATS4M modelling system has a 2013 base year and represents the travel conditions for a typical October weekday. Figure 2.9 shows the wider model area, including the extents of both the simulation and buffer network. Figure 2.9: GBATS4M Geographical Coverage The modelling development work is reported in: GBATS4 Model Update, Report of Surveys and Existing Data Review, August 2015 GBATS4 Model Update, METROWEST Highway Model Local Model Validation Report, October

33 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION GBATS4 Model Update, METROWEST Public Transport Model Local Model Validation Report, October 2015 GBATS4 Model Update, Demand Model Report, August 2015 Figures 2.10 to 2.11 show Select Link Analysis of trips using the A38, north of the Airport. The Select Link Analysis shows that the A38 performs three roles: Providing a route into South Bristol from North Somerset; Providing access to locations along the corridor; and Providing access to the Airport. 2 17

34 SECTION 2 Figure 2.10: Baseline North of Airport PM (North Somerset) 2 18

35 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION Figure 2.11: Baseline North of Airport PM (South Bristol and City Centre) 2 19

36 SECTION Local road network north of South Bristol Link There are a number of principal roads just north of the planned junction with the South Bristol Link that connect with Bristol City Centre, the outskirts of the city and beyond and the strategic highway network. The main roads being: The A38 running through Bedminster towards Redcliffe in Bristol City Centre and connects with Redcliffe Way, Temple Way and the M32; The A3029 Winterstoke Road that connects with the A370 Brunel Way and the A4 Portway linking with the M5 and providing a peripheral distributor role for South Bristol and an alternative access route to Bristol City Centre; The A370 Ashton Way/Long Ashton by pass runs parallel to the A38 and provides the principal route from many settlements in North Somerset to Bristol City Centre via the Brunel Way; and The A4174 Hartcliffe Way together with Hengrove Way and Airport Road forms a network of spine roads for the southern suburbs of Bristol. These provide an alternative route that avoids the centre of Bristol for traffic heading towards Kingswood, Keynsham and Bath Airport travel demand Airport Passenger Travel Demand Bristol Airport primarily serves a catchment area in the South West of England, with some demand also arising in South Wales. In 2015, the West of England local authorities supplied 2.4m of the Airport s 6.8m passengers, or 36% of the total. The City of Bristol was the main source of passengers, providing 1.7m. Other significant sources of passenger demand included Devon and Cornwall (1.2m) and South Wales (1.2m). Table 2.5 provides a full breakdown of domestic passengers by area of residence. Table 2.5: Passenger Catchment Area and Mode Share Source: Bristol Airport Evidence to inform Joint Transport Study (2016) Area Total 2015 Share of traffic Propensity to drive Bristol % 72% B&NES 0.3 5% 59% South Glos 0.1 2% 91% N. Somerset 0.3 5% 96% Somerset 0.6 9% 93% Wales % 77% Wiltshire 0.4 6% 85% Glos 0.4 5% 79% Devon % 78% Cornwall 0.3 5% 91% Dorset 0.2 2% 66% Other 0.3 5% n/a Through analysis of the probable assignment routes for passengers residing in the various administrative areas listed above, it is clear that the majority would travel to Bristol Airport from the 2 20

37 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION North. More specifically, passengers residing in Bristol, Bath and North East Somerset, South Gloucestershire, Gloucestershire, Wiltshire, Wales and Other locations, or two thirds of all passengers, would be expected to access the Airport using the A38 southbound. The remaining passengers (i.e. one third) would travel to the Airport via the A38 northbound. This suggests that the majority of traffic associated with Airport passengers is likely to travel on the A38 section north of Bristol Airport. The data also indicates the high mode share for private car use for Airport passengers. In particular, passengers from Cornwall, Somerset and North Somerset to the south of the Airport have a high reliance on car use. Simultaneously, passengers from South Gloucestershire and Gloucestershire to the north of the Airport have a high propensity to drive. This points towards limited opportunities for alternative modes of travel to Bristol Airport from both directions. Even passengers residing in Bristol overwhelmingly rely on access to the Airport via private car, despite the provision of the Airport Flyer Express bus service. In total, public transport achieved a mode share of 14% for passengers travelling to Bristol Airport in This proportion is lower than all comparable and larger airports in the UK and some smaller airports (e.g. Liverpool and London City) and is indicative of the poor surface access provision currently in place at the Airport Employee Travel Demand In terms of employee travel patterns, the 2011 Census was used to establish their commuting routes and residential distribution. Specifically, the Census provides journey to work origin/destination datasets that illustrate where the Airport s workforce resides. The data suggests Bristol Airport s workforce is relatively dispersed. Whilst almost two thirds of employees reside in North Somerset (41%) and Bristol (24%) alone, significant concentrations of employees can be found further afield in South Gloucestershire, Newport and Cardiff. Analysis of the probable assignment routes for commuting trips suggests the distribution of employment north and south of the Airport is more evenly split than the distribution of passengers. Once the journey to work data is adjusted to discount those residents who live in the immediate area of the Airport, 51% of employees would be expected to access the Airport using the A38 southbound route. The remaining passengers (i.e. almost half) would travel to the Airport via the A38 northbound route. This suggests that the traffic associated with Airport employees is likely to be split evenly on the A38, north and south of Bristol Airport. The Census data also provided an insight into mode share for commuting trips to Bristol Airport. The data suggests that 81% of employees travel to work by private car. An additional 3% travel as private car passengers. This is above the West of England local authority and South West benchmarks for travel to work (50 72% and 66% respectively) and also above comparators airports (e.g. Birmingham, whose private car mode share is around 69%). This outlines the reliance on private car ownership for access to the Airport by its workforce. Further, despite provision of public transport services such as the Airport Flyer, the employee mode share for bus use is 6% at the Airport, well below benchmarks for Bristol (11%) and Bath and North East Somerset in particular (8%). Once again, this points towards poor surface access provision currently in place at the Airport Baseline Commentary This section has presented an analysis of baseline traffic volumes and travel times on the A38 in order to understand current operational issues along the route. This has shown that existing volumes along much of the route are within the theoretical capacity of the link current standard, although notably higher volumes at the southern end of the route, particularly southbound during the PM peak, are approaching capacity. An analysis of travel time data for the route suggests that there are resilience issues along the corridor particularly at junctions with higher volumes during the PM peak in the southbound direction leading to much slower mean speeds and travel times. The main causes of delay are the 2 21

38 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION existing traffic signals at Barrow Street and Downside, with the latter appearing to contribute to significant southbound congestion during this period. Examination of LinSig models confirms that the A38/Downside Road signals are the main bottleneck along the route with current traffic volumes along this section, some 1,400 vehicles per hour southbound in the PM peak, already equivalent to the expected capacity of the signals. Whilst no baseline traffic data is available to assess the Barrow Street signals, current volumes are within the predicted capacity of this junction. The analysis of passenger travel demand indicates two thirds travel along the A38 between the Airport and Bristol. Whilst the numbers travelling by public transport have increased in recent years, the numbers remain lower than comparable airports in the UK and the reliance on the car is indicative of the poor surface access provision. With staff travel demand, the analysis suggests an even split of A38 north and south of the Airport. The modal split shows substantial car travel with the proportions higher than the travel to work averages for North Somerset and Bristol. 2.4 Baseline Environmental Conditions There are a number of existing constraints along the existing A38 corridor and in its proximity. Environmental constraints including archaeological sites/areas, TPO s, existing and proposed conservation areas, ancient woodlands, SSSI s, wildlife sites, listed buildings, protected species and habitats are all located within the vicinity of A38. Figure 2.12 shows a plan showing the location and description of the existing environmental constraints. 2 22

39 SECTION 2 Figure 2.12: Location and description of environmental constraints 2 23

40 SECTION 2 The key issues are: Common land Felton Common is situated to the south from the A38/West Lane junction, following the path behind the school and expanding eastwards south of Hillcrest Farm. Listed Buildings There are a number of existing listed buildings in close proximity of the A38 corridor. Castle Farm, Bridgwater Farm, Dial Farm and Newditch Farm are located next to the route. Lulsgate Farm and Downside Farm are also listed buildings located between Downside Road and Hyatts Wood Road. There are a number of listed buildings in Felton and in close proximity of West Lane. Regionally Important Geographical Sites (RIGS) There are two small RIGS in the vicinity of Lakeside Spas, the larger RIGS covers the area of disused quarry north of Potters Hill. Further north from the Airport there are two RIGS. The first covering the area of Hyatts Wood Quarry (North of Oatfield Farm) and the second is Flax Bourton Quarry (West of Bourton Combe). Underground Statutory Utility Apparatus There are a number of existing statutory utility apparatus along the route of the A38. Further investigation would be required to confirm exact requirements and the financial impact on the proposed options. Existing topography The location of the Airport would provide topographical challenges to the heavy rail options (see Figure 2.13). The existing rail link is approximately 15.00m ASL in the vicinity of Nailsea and Backwell, the Airport however is on a plateau in the region of m ASL. Bristol Water reservoirs there are 3 No reservoirs located between Barrow Common and Glenville House Farm, 2 of these are south of the corridor and one North of A38. Green Belt Figure 2.14 shows the current extent of the Bristol Bath green Belt. The corridor from the Airport to the junction with the SBL lies within the Green Belt. There are significant pressures for new housing across the West of England and there will be strong arguments for delivering some of that growth at sustainable locations and that some of the locations likely to being promoted could be in the Green Belt. In addition, growth at and around the Airport cannot be fully realised whilst constrained by the Green Belt. The West of England authorities are currently at a key point in the JSP process with decisions to be taken over the summer 2016 on the preferred approach to Green Belt policy for inclusion in a draft plan for consultation later in

41 SECTION 2 UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT SITUATION Figure 2.13: Topography Figure 2.14: Bristol Bath Green Belt plan (source JSP documentation) 2 25

42

43 SECTION 3 Understanding the Future Context 3.1 Introduction to Stage 1, Step 2 In understanding the future context, the stage 1, step 2 process as outlined in WebTAG was followed. The tasks undertaken to inform this stage of the work were: Future land use and policies This section effectively looks at the changes in land use and policies from the emerging JSP work and the existing Local Plan Core Strategies; Future changes to the transport system This part focuses on the possible future transport conditions along the A38 corridor based on the assessments undertaken to date as part of the JTS and Airport expansion; and Future travel demands and levels of service This part looks at some of the outputs and outcomes from the GBATS modelling on the wider highway network in the vicinity of the scheme. This takes into account some of the initial assessments undertaken as part of the JTS work. 3.2 Future Land Uses and Polices Joint Spatial Plan Strategy The JSP Issues and Options document refers to the Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) which sets out the ambition for sustainable economic growth across the West of England and includes planning for 95,000 new jobs by This is equivalent to approximately 18% growth in the total number of jobs in the West of England between 2013 and Central to the strategy will be the delivery of the Enterprise Zone, five Enterprise Areas and priority regeneration area in South Bristol. These strategic development locations together have the potential to deliver around 70,000 new jobs by However, research for the West of England Authorities have estimated that only around 14,000 of the 70,000 target jobs would be likely to be created without improved transport connectivity and capacity. The study estimated that the additional connectivity and capacity delivered by the current major scheme programme would support creating a further 20,000 jobs. However, the ability to deliver the conditions for the remaining 36,000 jobs would be constrained without further improves to transport connectivity and capacity. It is also important that regeneration in South Bristol and Weston super Mare is supported by growth and investment in order to re balance the economy across the area. The JSP Issues and Options document refers to a series of potential sites and includes Bristol Airport as a strategic location for potential employment. Nevertheless, the accompanying Economic Development Needs Assessment Report notes consultation feedback that the Airport is perceived to be isolated from employment areas across the City and is not typical of most city airports in the UK. The JSP Issues and Options document refers to the objectively assessed need for housing in the wider Bristol Housing Market areas of 85,000 homes from 2016 to The current Local Plans and small local windfall developments are estimated to deliver around 56,000 new homes in the Wider Bristol Housing Market Area from 2016 to It is therefore estimated that the JSP will need to plan for a further 29,000 dwellings to be delivered. Overall, the requirement for 85,000 dwellings will be the equivalent to an increase of around 18% on current housing provision in the sub region, and represents major growth. This will pose significant challenges in terms of ensuring the new homes are located in the most appropriate locations, to maximise the use of existing facilities and maximising opportunities for walking, cycling and public transport. There will also be significant challenges in ensuring the deliverability of new infrastructure (including transport infrastructure) to support this development. 3 1

44 SECTION 3 UNDERSTANDING THE FUTURE CONTEXT The JSP has identified different types of development as follows: Urban intensification Essentially these are opportunities to deliver additional development within urban areas. The advantages is the developments are able to benefit from existing transport systems although this has to be balanced with the potential impact on congestion; Urban extension This relates to a planned expansion of the urban area into adjacent countryside. The JSP has identified possible extensions to the north and east of Bristol, to the south east of Bristol and in South West Bristol taking in land between Bristol and North Somerset; Town expansion This refers to the planned expansion of existing towns detached from existing urban areas. There could be potential for expansion in North Somerset, South Gloucestershire and Bath and North East Somerset; and Other opportunities This relates to smaller opportunities such as village expansion or a cluster of sites being brought together to form a strategic option. Figure 3.1, taken from the JSP, shows the potential location of strategic development. Figure 3.1: Potential location of strategic development The JSP has adopted five different scenarios that the development could be potentially delivered. These have been assessed against the headings of housing and wellbeing, economy, transport and infrastructure and environment: Protection of the Green Belt There is a Green Belt around Bristol and Bath which covers nearly half of the West of England. This scenario could lead to some changes to the Green Belt and accommodating some development whilst generally protecting the extent of the Green Belt. Nevertheless, development outside the Green Belt will make development more remote from Bristol and make the need for transport investment greater. Concentration at Bristol urban area This scenario focuses development in and around urban Bristol with most delivered on large sites. The impact on transport could be mixed, with shorter 3 2

45 SECTION 3 UNDERSTANDING THE FUTURE CONTEXT travel times and alternatives to the car available, although it has the potential to increase congestion and may require significant infrastructure investment. Transport focused development This scenario is focused on locations judged to work due to their access to sustainable transport choices urban areas that already have good travel choices are the priority for development. These would have the advantages of commuter distances being shorter, meaning more walking and cycling and there could be a focus on locations with rail access. Nevertheless, the impacts on congestion need to be considered and a package of transport measures are required to support this scenario. Spread of development This scenario explores the benefits of a more even spread of development across the area, rather than focussing on Bristol. This scenario could use different locations of development, potentially including a mix of urban extensions, town expansions and development in other settlements. This scenario could be less effective in transport terms but may provide the opportunity for targeted investment in certain areas. Focus on a new settlement/limited number of expanded settlements This scenario considers opportunities to concentrate development into a single or small number of strategic new locations. It is an opportunity to create new balanced communities although there is also the potential to development significant employment hubs. Delivery is potentially an issue with a need for significant in transport and other infrastructure All the spatial plan scenarios discussed above will increase demand for the scheme area. Core Strategies The North Somerset Core Strategy, identifies some of the matters arising from employment and housing growth for the Airport and along the A38 corridor. Within the vision it states that: The future planning of Royal Portbury Dock and Bristol Airport will be guided by the need to balance the advantages of economic growth with the need to control the impacts on those who live nearby and on the natural environment In particular: Ensuring that major development are delivered in tandem with the necessary improvements in physical and social infrastructure such as access improvements to Bristol Airport, and that appropriate delivery mechanisms including effective tariffs/developer contributions are in place; and Support and promote major employers in North Somerset, such as Bristol Airport and Royal Portbury Dock, to ensure continued employment security and economic prosperity. Pertinent policies with the Core Strategy include: Policy CS10 Transport Movement Transport schemes should: o enhance the facilities for pedestrians, including those with reduced mobility, and other users such as cyclists; o deliver better local bus, rail and rapid transit services in partnership with operators; o develop innovative and adaptable approaches to public transport in the rural areas of the district; o improve road and personal safety and environmental conditions; o reduce the adverse environmental impacts of transport and contribute towards carbon reduction; o mitigate against increased traffic congestion; o improve connectivity within and between major towns both within and beyond North Somerset; and o support the movement of freight by rail. 3 3

46 SECTION 3 UNDERSTANDING THE FUTURE CONTEXT Policy CS20 Supporting a successful economy The overall approach is employment led in order to achieve a more sustainable alignment between jobs and the economically active population across towns and villages in North Somerset. This seeks to increase their sustainability, selfcontainment, decrease out commuting, provide for a range of local jobs and reduce carbon emissions from unsustainable car use. Priority will be given to the reuse of previously developed land and the safeguarding of sites in existing economic use. CS23: Bristol Airport Proposals for the development of Bristol Airport will be required to demonstrate the satisfactory resolution of environmental issues, including the impact of growth on surrounding communities and surface access infrastructure. The policy relates to the development of Bristol Airport only. In relation to future development beyond that which is identified in the Replacement Local Plan, the council will liaise with the Airport, to ensure that the timing of a future development plan document is co ordinated with additions to the evidence base arising from review of the Airport Master Plan. Surface access improvements and public transport use will be monitored, particularly the proportion of air passengers using the Flyer bus link. 3.3 Future Changes to the Transport System West of England programme of major schemes Key to delivering economic growth the West of England LEP have a 240m+ programme of five major transport schemes which offer strategic fit with their Enterprise Zone and Enterprise Area spatial strategy. This includes MetroBus which is a 200m investment in three rapid transit routes (Ashton Vale to Bristol City Centre, North Fringe to Hengrove Package and the South Bristol Link) delivering a network of high quality, modern, reliable, fast, smartcard ticketing, integrated and easy to use services. MetroBus will serve the Temple Quarter Enterprise Zone (17,000 new jobs), South Bristol employment area (10,000 new jobs) and the Emersons Green/Science Park (up to 7,000 new jobs) and Filton/A38 Enterprise Areas (12,000 new jobs) as well as linking new housing areas and addressing congestion hot spots. Construction will be complete 2016 to MetroWest, is the West of England s ambitious rail proposals, which comprises of: MetroWest Phase 1 half hourly train services for the Severn Beach Line, local stations between Bristol Temple Meads and Bath Spa (Keynsham and Oldfield Park) and the reopened Portishead Line (Pill and Portishead). Construction planned to be complete MetroWest Phase 2 half hourly train services to Yate and hourly services on a reopened Henbury line. Construction planned to be complete Figure 3.2 shows the study corridor in the context of MetroBus and MetroWest schemes. 3 4

47 SECTION 3 UNDERSTANDING THE FUTURE CONTEXT Figure 3.2 The study corridor in the context of MetroBus and MetroWest schemes Joint Transport Study The JTS Key Principles Report outlines the key challenges for the transport system arising from the development process that is being outlined in the JSP. It states the JTS must seek to: Enable the West of England to meet its full potential as one of the most successful city regions in Europe, with highly productive businesses and the creation of new businesses and new jobs; Deliver new housing, in the right places, to support the growth ambitions of the city region, to create high quality communities and to create a better balance of jobs and houses in different areas; Help tackle deep rooted challenges of deprivation, inequality and poor health in many parts, but in particular in South Bristol, other parts of Bristol and Weston super Mare; Protect areas of high quality natural environment, including the Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty and protect high quality historic built environments, and regenerate targeted areas in towns and cities; and Continue the drive towards more sustainable lifestyles, with an imperative to tackle carbon emissions, particularly from the use of cars, which will require action to more effective travel choices and reduce congestion. As such, the document outlines the vision, goals, challenges and objectives for the JTS as shown in Figure

48 SECTION 3 UNDERSTANDING THE FUTURE CONTEXT Figure 3.3: JTS Vision, Goals, Challenges and Objectives The JTS outlines a number of particular challenges for the West of England as follows: Limited transport options Very high levels of car use in rural area and urban fringes, with slightly lower levels in urban areas. This reflects radial movements towards Bristol city centre with long public transport journey times; Low levels of public transport use across the whole area, including the urban areas, although there is evidence that this is growing; There are high levels of walking and cycling in the inner part of Bristol and in Bath and in the centre of towns such as Clevedon, Nailsea and Portishead; but It notes that the current programme of investment in the West of England will contribute to improving the attractiveness of walking, cycling and public transport with modal shift expected as a result of MetroBus and MetroWest. Nevertheless, growing numbers of people working and living in the West of England will mean continued growth in vehicle traffic. Congestion is impacting on many areas The overall trend is longer and more unreliable journey times with reduced resilience in the event of incidents; Ongoing assessment of the potential impacts suggests that there will be an increase in the forecast delays between the Airport and South West Bristol; The delays could be accentuated by similar impacts elsewhere in the south west quadrant of the West of England area including the A370 at Congresbury and Backwell, the A38 at Langford and Downside Road/West Lane; Congestion can be found A369 from Portishead to M5 junction 19, the growth of Weston super Mare and the increase in trips to Bristol will impact on the operation of the M5 between junctions 20 and 21; and 3 6

49 SECTION 3 UNDERSTANDING THE FUTURE CONTEXT High traffic flows on the A370 through villages in North Somerset including the village of Barrow Gurney. The completion of the South Bristol Link (SBL) will provide an alternative route across the south west quadrant of Bristol which will help relieve Barrow Gurney. The additional capacity provided by the SBL will help to accommodate traffic growth on the A38 associated with the expanding Bristol Airport. Environmental challenges Road traffic contributed towards 32% of total carbon emissions in the West of England in 2008 but progress is being made in reducing emissions from traffic. With future growth, increases in people living and working in the West of England will offset the per capita reductions, and it will be therefore be more challenging to reduce total carbon emissions; Impacts on urban areas including the effects of high traffic flows and dominance of traffic on the street scene; and Adverse environmental impacts of traffic in rural areas Airport expansion The latest available data suggests that Bristol Airport served 6.8 million passengers in This Figure is expected to increase to 7.5 million in As outlined above, existing expansion and planning permissions allow the Airport to serve up to 10mppa, a Figure that current forecasts suggest will be reached by 2024/2025. This will be facilitated by delivery of transport schemes to ease surface access to the Airport, such as the South Bristol Link and AVTM MetroBus which Bristol Airport have previously made significant contributions towards (estimated at 4.7 million). At the same time, forecasts for the Airport suggest that passenger demand could grow to 15mppa if growth at the Airport is unconstrained by issues such as inadequate surface access. Indeed, Bristol Airport is of the view that surface access improvements will need to be implemented in order to enable growth beyond 10mppa. Hence, growth beyond this Figure will not be achievable in the absence of further surface access enhancements as existing infrastructure is inadequate to unlock or support further growth beyond the permitted 10mppa threshold. Therefore, in the absence of investment in improved surface access at Bristol Airport to allow ongoing expansion, passenger growth will be halted at 10mppa, which could result in a failure to capitalise on potential economic activity for the West of England s sub regional economy. 3.4 Future Travel Demands and Levels of Service. Figure 3.4 shows base year and 2026 forecast conditions. The flows have been taken from the GBATS model and include all planned growth up to The Figures show: AM inbound flow to Bristol to see high increases of 30 to 50%; PM outbound flow forecast increases of 10 20% restricted by capacity constraints in the corridor; and Some flow reductions forecast on side roads due to capacity constraints. Select Link Analysis have been undertaken on the future year models, see Figures 3.6 to 3.7. Figure 3.5 shows forecast journey times for the A38 corridor, between Kings Head Lane and the Airport for 2013 (Base) and This shows forecast increases in the AM and PM peak hours in both directions, most notably in the PM peak southbound direction. The AM peak travel time increases are around 13%. The PM peak increases are 18% northbound and 53% southbound. The PM peak southbound travel times correspond to average speeds dropping by 34% from 61kph to 40kph. 3 7

50 SECTION 3 Figure 3.4: A38 corridor current and future travel times AM BASE Actual Flows North Side Rd Down Side 886 Barrow Street Yanley Lane Residential A West Lane Barrow Lane Dundry Lane Residential PM BASE Actual Flows 656 North Side Rd Down Side 886 Barrow Street Yanley Lane Residential A West Lane Barrow Lane Dundry Lane Residential AM FUTURE 2036 Actual Flows North Side Rd Down Side 886 Barrow Street Yanley Lane Residential SBL (n) A A38 PM FUTURE 2036 Actual Flows North Side Rd Down Side West Lane Barrow Lane Dundry Lane Residential SBL (s) Barrow Street Yanley Lane Residential SBL (n) A A38 AM %age Change North Side Rd Down Side West Lane Barrow Lane Barrow Street + 30% % Dundry Lane Residential SBL (s) 732 Yanley Lane Residential SBL (n) A38 16% 17% 26% 18% 43% 29% 41% 37% 27% % % 2% West Lane 33% 25% % 4% 103% 14% 20% 0% % % Barrow Lane % 74% 46% 28% 79% 90% N/A N/A 27% 23% Dundry Lane 49% 14% 49% 14% 61% 27% 59% 41% N/A N/A Residential SBL (s) 732 N/A N/A A38 PM %age Change North Side Rd Down Side 11% 13% A % 17% 49% 42% 8% 24% 91% 50% N/A N/A 29% 19% % 9% 32% 22% % 51% 55% 44% West Lane 11% 20% Barrow Lane Barrow Street + 30% % % 5% 15% 6% 69% 26% 0% 0% % % Dundry Lane 15% 6% Yanley Lane Residential SBL (n) 27% 17% 24% 25% N/A N/A Residential SBL (s) 732 N/A N/A A38 3 8

51 SECTION 3 Figure 3.5 shows forecast journey times between Kings Head Land and Bristol city centre for 2013 (Base) and Figure 3.5: A38 to central Bristol current and future travel times This generally shows forecast increases in travel times, particularly in the AM peak hour. The AM inbound direction shows an increase of 38%. The exception is the PM outbound direction which shows little change (around 2%), however this already shows high levels of congestion with average speeds as low as 23kph during the PM peak. This indicates worsening congestion on routes between the A38 and the centre of Bristol which will also need to be addressed in the future. Table 3.1 provides details of base and forecast junction delays at key junction along the corridor, encompassing delays for traffic on the A38 mainline and side approach roads. Table 3.1: A38 corridor junction delays Average delay (seconds) A38 Junction (time period) Base 2036 Difference Barrow Street (AM) % Barrow Lane (AM) % West Lane (AM) % Downside Road (AM) % Dundry Lane (PM) % Barrow Street (PM) % Barrow Lane (PM) % West Lane (PM) % Downside Road (PM) % This shows significant increases in junction delays along the corridor due to traffic growth if no corridor improvement scheme is implemented, up to a ten fold increase at the Downside Road junction. Where the mainline flows are unimpeded at certain junctions, i.e. Dundry Lane and Barrow Lane, the increase in delays relate to the side arms. The impact of this will be increased severance for local trips and pressure on the minor roads used to access the A38 corridor. 3 9

52 SECTION 3 Figure 3.6: 2036 North of Airport PM (North Somerset) 3 10

53 SECTION 3 UNDERSTANDING THE FUTURE CONTEXT Figure 3.7: 2036 North of Airport PM (South Bristol and City Centre) 3 11

54

55 SECTION 4 Need for intervention and scheme objectives This section provides details of the: The need for future interventions; Identification of objectives; and Definition of the geographical area of impact to be addressed by the intervention. 4.1 Establishing the Need for Future Interventions Introduction to Stage 1, Step 3 To establish the need for future intervention the problems and issues have been defined from data collected in Steps 1 and Wider Economic Context: Opportunities and Constraints The analysis first establishes the need for future intervention on the A38 from a wider economic perspective. It does this by outlining the current and future transport issues in the sub region and how these impinge on the economic performance of North Somerset and the West of England. Similarly, the opportunities and constraints presented by the sub region s socioeconomic environment and development planning priorities feed into this wider economic perspective on the need for future intervention on the corridor. This approach reflects the fact that any intervention will represent a strategic economic asset that can act as a public good for the benefit of the subregion as a whole, rather than as an asset that only accrues benefits to a single stakeholder. The need for intervention on the corridor from the perspective of specific drivers of economic growth (e.g. Bristol Airport) is also considered. This is important because of the significant impact key employment and economic hubs such as the Airport can have on wider economic prosperity across the West of England Transport Context Building on the current and future transport context established in Sections 2 and 3, the A38 acts as a strategic radial route within North Somerset s local highway network. The route provides a key link between Bridgwater (and Weston super Mare via the A368) and Bristol, via Bristol Airport. It serves multiple journey purposes including commuting, retail, business, freight, education and leisure trips. The UK Census (2011) reveals that nearly 18,000 residents in North Somerset travel to Bristol for work and 7,000 Bristol residents travel to North Somerset for work. As a key strategic route between the local authorities, a proportion of trips in each direction are likely to route via the A38. The significance of these commuter flows is heightened by the high private car mode share for journey to work purposes (82% in each direction for car drivers and car passengers combined). In addition to commuting, the route is also used for business travel, freight movements and other non commuting trips, as well as for access to Bristol Airport for air passengers. Travel demand tied to these journey purposes is likely to grow going forward in tandem with wider economic growth and Airport expansion in particular. Therefore, there is significant and growing travel demand on the A

56 SECTION 4 NEED FOR INTERVENTION AND SCHEME OBJECTIVES Constraints. The key transport network constraints in the sub region and along the A38 specifically are aligned to the challenges presented in the Joint Transport Study (Section 3.3.1). The transport issues, include: Limited travel options resulting from inadequate public transport networks, leading to reliance on private car use; Congestion along the motorway network and key radial routes (e.g. the A38 between Bristol and North Somerset), leading to extensive journey times, poor reliability and lack of resilience; Demand for housing and employment growth and increased infrastructure as outlined in the ambitious aspirations stated in the Joint Spatial Plan and LEP s Strategic Economic Plan; and Congestion hotspots at a number of locations along the A38, including in the immediate vicinity of Bristol Airport (West of England Joint Transport Study s Key Principles Report (2015) identifies). These transport issues can have a constraining influence on economic growth and development through a number of mechanisms. For example, the quality of transport infrastructure is often cited as a key factor determining business attractiveness and investor confidence for inward investment. High levels of congestion, extensive journey times, poor reliability and low levels of resilience are symptoms of transport networks that are inefficient, leading to poor access to labour, consumer and product markets for business. Poor accessibility can therefore act as a major deterrent to business relocation and expansion. Inefficient transport networks that suffer from the type of issues outlined above do not support balance within the labour market. This means that areas of labour supply and labour demand suffer from severance, resulting in failure to maximise labour market efficiency. Residents are unable to access the types of jobs that are commensurate with their skills and qualifications, leading to loss of productivity and reduced economic activity and output. Issues such as congestion and poor reliability act to hinder wider economic growth and development through reducing the scope for economic agglomeration. Agglomeration refers to the clustering, increased competition, innovation and greater business interaction that results from bringing businesses closer together spatially and temporally, resulting in productivity boosts. Inadequate transport systems that result in extensive journey times and poor reliability constrain the agglomerative impact and therefore result in missed opportunity to enhance productivity. Opportunities. In light of the range of transport issues that currently constrain the West of England s transport network and its ability to support the sub regional economy, the Joint Transport Study sets a number of goals which underpin future transport investment. The primary objective of the Study is to develop a transport network which unlocks economic growth and development in the sub region. A key element of this goal is to link areas of labour supply to areas of labour demand more efficiently, to reduce journey times and congestion, provide more resilience and better reliability. This makes the provision of more accessible and better connected opportunities to travel vitally important. Improvements to the A38 corridor will assist with these goals. Enhancing conditions on key radial routes in the sub region (e.g. the A38 between North Somerset and Bristol) could play a critical role in improving accessibility between residential and employment destinations and subsequently facilitating economic growth and development. The Census 2011 data suggests that only a small proportion of residents travelling for work between North Somerset and Bristol currently use public transport routes (c. 6% 8% mode share for bus, 2% 6% mode share for rail). Therefore there is scope to expand mode share towards more sustainable patterns of travel through the provision of more reliable bus service and enhancements to the rail network. This will unlock highway capacity on key routes such as the A38 by reducing reliance on private car use. This could lead to quicker, more reliable journeys and better transport network efficiency in the sub region. 4 2

57 Socioeconomic and Economic Development Context SECTION 4 NEED FOR INTERVENTION AND SCHEME OBJECTIVES Constraints. Considered as a whole, the West of England sub region is relatively prosperous, characterised by above average levels of economic activity, low levels of unemployment and a concentration of well skilled and highly educated residents who have found employment in highvalue roles. Generally, this results in above average levels of income for residents in the West of England relative to other city regions. At an aggregate level, North Somerset s socioeconomic performance trails behind the West of England as a whole across a range of indicators. For example, the local authority area records marginally lower levels of labour market participation relative to other constituent elements of the sub region. The skills base and educational profile for North Somerset is also less developed than the rest of the West of England. Similarly, a lower proportion of North Somerset s residents are employed in high value roles such senior and managerial levels, and a higher proportion are employed in low value economic sectors such as retail, when compare to national averages. In light of these trends, it is unsurprising that typically low value jobs in retail and accommodation and food services are disproportionately concentrated in North Somerset. As a result, income levels for employees working in North Somerset are lower than the West of England average. Transport improvement schemes along the A38 can increase connectivity with the rest of the West of England. This could help make North Somerset a place where people want to live, work and visit, and therefore could help North Somerset bridge the socioeconomic gap with other areas within the West of England. Within this context, the need for economic growth and development in North Somerset and across the wider West of England is clear. Investment in appropriate transport interventions to better connect areas of existing disadvantage could help achieve a more spatially even distribution of economic growth and development. Opportunities. The economic growth and development targets for the West of England are articulated in the Joint Spatial Plan: Issues and Options Paper (2015). The Paper outlines a requirement for some 85,000 new dwellings across the sub region by In addition, the Economic Development Needs Assessment (2015) identifies a requirement for between 391 and 520ha of employment land to support job creation. Development has been earmarked for South Bristol and North Somerset, in close proximity to the A38. This development will therefore place significant pressure on a transport network which already suffers from a range of congestion, reliability and resilience issues as outlined above. Adding further traffic pressure to the existing network will negatively impact existing economic activity and make the sub region less attractive to ongoing inward investment. The A38 is identified as a key constraint that could impinge on the sub region s ability to deliver its ambitious economic growth and development targets. The A38 s position as a critical issue is expected to grow in the future, due to the proposed location of housing development in North Somerset and the potential for employment growth around the Bristol Airport hub. As a result, the key corridor status for the A38 is reaffirmed in the Joint Spatial Plan optioneering process, which seeks to integrate major public transport improvements into wider corridor improvements along the A38. Not only could these improvements facilitate Airport expansion, they could also unlock nonairport related economic growth and development across the wider West of England, by easing the current traffic burden on the A38 and wider sub region Airport Context Constraints. Passenger demand at Bristol Airport is forecast to double to 15mppa by However, as outlined above, current expansion and planning permissions allow growth to 10mppa only. Beyond the 10mppa Figure, expansion and growth of Bristol Airport will be constrained by surface access resilience. The current surface access provision at Bristol Airport is considered to be deficient, particularly in comparison with similar size facilities elsewhere in the UK. Currently, Bristol is the only UK airport serving more than five million passengers not to have surface access provided by dual carriageway 4 3

58 SECTION 4 NEED FOR INTERVENTION AND SCHEME OBJECTIVES standard highways. Further, it is one of only two UK airports serving more than five million passengers not to have direct or proximate motorway connectivity. To compound surface access issues, Bristol Airport does not have a direct rail or tram link, unlike most airports serving similar or larger number of passengers. The evident inadequacy of surface transport access reduces airport connectivity. This acts to deter potential passengers, meaning domestic market share could be lost to competing airports whilst also making Bristol Airport a less attractive gateway to international arrivals. Although the market share trends suggest that Bristol Airport has been successful in capturing an increasing proportion of air passengers in the south west (as noted above), the region still suffers from significant leakage to airports in the south east. This is attributed to the ease of surface access to the south east s airports relative to the more proximate Bristol Airport, where access is inhibited by poor surface access. The scale of leakage to the south east could be exacerbated following completion of major transport projects such as the Great Western Main Line enhancements, which would further improve access to the south east to the detriment of Bristol Airport. This might reverse recent trends of increased capture of south west passengers for the Airport. Poor connectivity also has implications for Airport employees as well as passengers, by making commuting trips more complex, time consuming and less attractive. This could constrain the labour market supply catchment area for the Airport. Bristol Airport identifies a recruitment challenge, borne out of recognition that poor surface access makes it difficult for potential employees to travel to the Airport. Within this context, poor accessibility is deemed to be a significant threat to the Airport s ability to unlock wider economic growth and development, including job creation and uplifts in economic activity and productivity. Therefore, the failure to address these access deficiencies could result in a missed opportunity to utilise the Airport to capitalise on and realise the region s full economic potential. Table 4.1 presents analysis of the types of jobs found in the immediate geography surrounding Bristol and comparator airports. The data suggests that all types of airport related employment are larger at Bristol s comparators relative to Bristol Airport itself. Critically, the proportion of indirect airport employment, which captures economic sectors linked to professional and financial services who might locate close to airports for the international connectivity provided, is considerably higher at the benchmark airports compared to at Bristol. Table 4.1: Employment Opportunities near Bristol Airport and Benchmarks Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, ONS (2014) Job Type Bristol BHX Luton Glasgow Edinburgh Airport operations 1,205 2,291 4,071 1,770 3,031 Airport support 1,362 5,864 4,581 2,574 3,200 Indirect jobs 255 5,855 1,513 1,190 4,047 Non airport related Total 3,105 14,228 10,319 6,133 10,913 Indirect 8% 41% 15% 19% 37% This data implies that Bristol Airport is not able to support wider economic growth or attract business relocation and investment in surrounding areas to the same extent as its comparators. This failure to deliver indirect airport employment could be partly attributable to poor surface access, given that each of the comparators noted above benefit from motorway proximity and dual carriageway standard access (and all but Glasgow also benefit from rail or tram links). 4 4

59 SECTION 4 NEED FOR INTERVENTION AND SCHEME OBJECTIVES The absence of an off site business hub and the ability to provide larger scale off site support could place the Airport at a competitive disadvantage to similar airports it regards as competitors. Competing airports have been able to develop business parks and other facilities unlike at Bristol Airport. As well as providing employment opportunities, provision of off site airport related development could enhance the image of the business environment in the West of England. This would contribute to an increased share of business travellers through the Airport. However, such developments would be contingent on significant improvements to surface access provision at Bristol Airport and its immediate surrounds. This means that currently, Bristol Airport may not be making its full possible contribution to economic growth and development in the sub region relative to its comparators. It may also be failing to meet the wider business needs that are commensurate with growth in passenger demand. The absence of a business hub also means that Bristol Airport is not capitalising on an opportunity to develop business agglomeration in its immediate periphery. As a result, opportunities to boost productivity through clustering, increased competition, innovation and knowledge sharing are missed, to the detriment of the wider West of England economy. As demonstrated in Table 4.1, comparator airports have been much more successful in delivering airport related agglomeration economies in their hinterlands, therefore maximising the contribution they make to the wider economy. Opportunities. Bristol Airport is recognised as the England s third largest regional airport, carrying approximately 6.8 million passengers in It is one of the fastest growing and best performing airports in Europe. In 2015, the Airport reported record passenger numbers and became the only UK airport to achieve consistent year on year growth since Passenger growth in 2016 is forecast to be more than 10% above 2015 and will surpass 7.5 million passengers. At the same time, operational statistics revealed that Bristol Airport was ranked first in the UK for flight punctuality, sixth in Europe and tenth globally (based on an on time performance rating of 89%). Further, the Airport is currently going through a period of significant physical expansion. In summer 2015, an 8.6m terminal extension was completed to improve facilities in the departure lounge at the eastern end of the terminal. Bristol Airport s expansions at the western end of the terminal, valued at 24m and designed to upgrade security and arrivals facilities, is still in progress with completion anticipated by the end of These developments are key elements of the current Bristol Airport Masterplan which has secured planning permissions to allow the Airport to support growth in passenger demand, catering for up to 10 million passengers per annum (mppa). As well as continued growth in passenger numbers at Bristol Airport, the Airport has also managed to secure a growing market share of airport passengers from the South West and South Wales. Traditionally, Bristol Airport has competed with and suffered from significant leakage of passengers to the major airports in the south east. However, trends since 2000 demonstrate a doubling of market share 18% to 35% through to This south west airport passenger capture rate is expected to surpass 38% by This is indicative of the consolidation trend in the aviation industry across this period, which has allowed some regional airports to grow market share at the expense of competing and larger airports. These trends will also benefit constrained airport capacity in the south east, by unlocking capacity at London Heathrow or London Gatwick as passenger demand in the south west switches to Bristol. Within this context, Bristol Airport has been able to attract a range of high profile airlines and routes to the West of England. The Airport currently serves 117 destinations, including major hub destinations such as Amsterdam, Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin. It also welcomes flag carriers including KLM, Brussels Airlines and Aer Lingus which provide links to Europe s major cities and beyond. These links will help Bristol Airport to cater for a growing proportion of business travellers. Business travel tends to be more profitable for airports and airlines and also implies international investment into the wider sub region. Therefore, capturing a greater market share of business travellers is a key objective for Bristol Airport. Further, Bristol Airport is also the designated home base for major low cost airlines, including EasyJet, who have their largest operational base outside London located at the Airport. This provides 4 5

60 SECTION 4 NEED FOR INTERVENTION AND SCHEME OBJECTIVES highly skilled and valuable engineering and maintenance employment opportunities to the labour market. The recent growth and performance trends and current expansion activities at Bristol Airport, tied to the increased presence of major airlines, mean the Airport is positioning itself as the international gateway to the West of England and wider south west. This provides an opportunity to improve connectivity and marketability of the region to international destinations. This will help integrate the West of England economy with global networks and trade flows and enable local businesses better access to reach the markets they need, in order to safeguard and create jobs and growth. Improved connectivity will be beneficial for the international connectivity too given that the West of England is regarded as one of UK s best performing Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEP). For example, FDI Magazine ranked West of England LEP highly against various criteria in its 2012 LEP benchmarking exercise. As part of FDI s European Cities and Regions of the Future 2016/17 Rankings, West of England LEP continues to be ranked highly for its economic potential. Expansion of Bristol Airport and improved connectivity provides an opportunity for the Airport to support the LEPs performance and comparative ranking by facilitating trade, foreign direct investment and tourism. Taking all of the above into account, Bristol Airport is estimated to support 3,000 direct on site jobs and 11,000 in the wider economy, generating 388m in annual Gross Value Added (GVA, a measure of economic output) in the process. The current expansion programme provides an opportunity to increase the Airport s impact on the wider economy Summary In summary, the need for intervention to address network resilience and capacity issues and to ensure a network which is fit for future growth demands is demonstrated by the following constraints: The current network lacks sufficient capacity and resilience to cater for current and future employment and housing needs as well as predicted demand growth at the Airport. Existing congestion and unreliable connectivity acts as a throttle on the sub region s economic growth and development potential and inhibits the opportunity for reliable, robust multi modal surface access options for transport network users. A lack of resilience means the network struggles to deal with existing demands. Disruptions and accidents impact economic competiveness and reduce accessibility to jobs and services. This creates longer, less reliable journey times for all road users, including key bus services including the Airport Flyer. The primarily single lane A38 serves as both a key commuter route and main access to Bristol Airport. The A38 is the primary link into Bristol from towns and villages to its south and is the only significant route, via numerous side roads, available for many communities within North Somerset. Nevertheless, delivery of a suitable intervention could unlock the following opportunities: Reduced congestion and accessibility for residents within the catchment area; Provide improved business and leisure transport links; Attract inward investment and inbound business travellers as the regions airport grows; and Improve existing alignment issues. By dealing with these constraints and realising these opportunities, an intervention along this corridor A38 could contribute significantly to catalysing economic growth and development in the West of England. 4 6

61 SECTION 4 NEED FOR INTERVENTION AND SCHEME OBJECTIVES Implications of Intervention Construction Stage Economic Impacts The options discussed in Section 5 reflect significant capital investment in transport interventions. Interventions of this scale typical have sizeable economic impacts in relation to temporary, construction stage job creation and GVA uplift. Using a combination of the economic benchmarks listed in the West of England LEP s Impact Guidance Note on Infrastructure Projects 2 and the high level capital cost estimates listed in Section 5, it is estimated that implementation of an option could result in the following economic impacts: Between 1,000 and 1,150 direct construction stage FTEs; Between 1,000 and 1,150 indirect construction stage FTEs; Between 36m and 41m direct construction stage GVA; and Between 32m and 37m indirect construction stage GVA Wider Economic Growth and Development In light of the wider transport and economic context established above, transport interventions along the A38 between Bristol Airport and Bristol could result in a number of significant benefits for the West of England economy. These include: Facilitation of new housing in line with the targets stated in the Joint Spatial Plan; Facilitation of new employment floorspace in line with the targets stated in the Joint Spatial Plan; Employment creation as a result of employment floorspace delivery; Business relocation and expansion due to increased business attractiveness; Inward investment due to increased investor confidence; Agglomeration impacts and subsequent productivity uplifts; GVA uplift (from employment creation and productivity uplifts); Land value uplifts; Expansion of the leisure and tourism economy; and Increased tax base through income tax (from increased employment), corporation tax (from increased business base), stamp duty and council tax (from increased housing) and VAT (from increased consumption) Airport Expansion and Impact on Wider Economic Growth and Development As outlined in Section 3.3.2, passenger demand at Bristol Airport could grow to 15mppa. However, in the absence of surface access interventions, passenger growth will be halted at 10mppa. The scale of lost economic activity resulting from failure to support airport expansion in line with forecasts beyond 2024 can be estimated using best practice aviation industry benchmarks outlined in InterVISTAS Economic Impact of European Airports (2015). Employment Implications. The InterVISTAS report outlines the relationship between passenger growth and direct on site job creation, suggesting that 0.95 jobs are created per 1,000 additional passengers up to the 10mppa threshold, falling to 0.85 jobs per 1,000 additional passengers beyond this point. Bristol Airport currently supports 3,000 direct on site employees, which is expected to rise to 4,000 as passenger demand grows to 10mppa. If passenger demand is constrained at this Figure in the absence of surface transport improvements, the Airport will not be able to capture the latent demand for 5mppa anticipated by The direct job creation impact of increasing passenger 2 Strategic Economics,

62 SECTION 4 NEED FOR INTERVENTION AND SCHEME OBJECTIVES throughput will not materialise. This will mean that direct on site employment associated with passenger growth of 5mppa (i.e. 4,250 jobs) will not be created at the Airport if passenger growth is inhibited. The current relationship between passenger demand and direct job creation (and subsequently, direct GVA and wider economic impacts) is not as strong at Bristol Airport as implied by InterVISTAs benchmarks. This could be attributable to the poor provision of surface access to the Airport and the Airport s relatively poor connectivity with the wider West of England sub region. Connectivity and accessibility will be enhanced through improved surface access. This will allow Bristol Airport to harness the high economic multiplier linkages that are referenced in the InterVISTAs report, leading to a step change in the relationship between passenger demand, direct job creation (and subsequently direct GVA and wider economic impacts). Bristol Airport also indicate that airport operations support more than 11,000 jobs in the wider economy at present. This implies a multiplier effect of 3.67 jobs in the wider economy per direct onsite job, assuming 3,000 current direct on site jobs. The additional 1,000 direct jobs supported through expansion to 10mppa will therefore support an additional 3,700 jobs in the wider economy by 2024 (c. 15,000 in total). However, without surface access improvements to facilitate further passenger growth beyond 10mppa the Airport will be unable to capture latent demand of 5mppa. The direct and wider economy job creation impact of increasing passenger throughput will not materialise. Therefore, this will result in a missed opportunity to create around 4,250 additional direct on site jobs. Based on the multiplier factors outlined, this could result in failure to create more than 14,000 jobs in the wider economy by Note that the estimates above are based on employment data reported by Bristol Airport. The InterVISTAS study identifies different types and scales of wider economy employment impacts using UK wide airport multipliers to estimate job creation. By applying these alternative multipliers, the missed opportunity for job creation in the wider economy would amount to 21,000 by 2036, 5,000 higher than the estimate using Bristol Airport data. Similarly, the West of England LEP s guidance on estimating economic impacts suggests an employment multiplier effect of 1.6 for economic activity in the transport sector. This means that increasing direct jobs at Bristol Airport by 4,250 could have an additional indirect impact on the wider economy of around 2,550 jobs. Whilst this wider economic impact appears significantly lower than other estimates listed above, it should be noted that this impact only captures indirect effects rather than induced or catalytic effects. Therefore, the lower wider economy employment impact estimate following the West of England LEP s guidance is understandably lower than when using benchmarks from other sources. Nevertheless, all sets of assumptions demonstrate the significant wider economy employment impacts of failure to implement surface access improvements to Bristol Airport. The implication of failure to deliver further surface access improvements on employment creation is outlined in Table

63 SECTION 4 NEED FOR INTERVENTION AND SCHEME OBJECTIVES Table 4.2: Potential Employment Implications of Bristol Airport Access Improvement Scheme Source: InterVISTAS Economic Impact of European Airports (2015), CH2M Employment Scenario Direct Jobs Bristol Airport Multiplier Effects Current Trends LEP Guidance Wider Economy: Indirect InterVISTAS Multiplier Effects Wider Economy: Induced Wider Economy: Catalytic Wider Economy: Total Current 3,000 11,000 11,000 2,032 2,369 10,236 14,637 10mppa 1,000 3, ,412 4,879 10mppa 4,000 14,667 11,600 2,709 3,159 13,649 19,516 15mppa 4,250 15,583 2,550 2,878 3,356 14,502 20,736 15mppa 19,400 30,250 14,150 5,587 6,515 28,150 40,252 GVA Implications. The failure to implement surface access improvements and the resulting missed opportunity for wider economy job creation could also lead to a missed opportunity to boost economic output in the West of England, measured in terms of GVA. Bristol Airport indicates that it currently generate 388m in annual GVA for the wider economy as a result of its operations. Assuming this GVA uplift is associated with the 11,000 jobs the Airport currently supports in the wider economy, a GVA per employee estimate of around 35,000 can be derived. Application of this Figure to the additional wider economy jobs that could be created with passenger demand of 15mppa means that 550m in additional GVA could be generated in the West of England. This level of GVA uplift will not materialise in the absence of surface access improvements to allow expansion beyond 10mppa. As above, InterVISTAS study identifies different types and scales of wider economy GVA impacts using UK wide airport multipliers to estimate changes in economic output. By applying the alternative multipliers, the missed opportunity for GVA uplift in the wider economy would amount to 1.3bn per annum by 2036, more than double the estimate using Bristol Airport data. Nevertheless, both sets of assumptions demonstrate the significant wider economy GVA impacts of failure to implement surface access improvements to Bristol Airport. Similarly, the West of England LEP s guidance on estimating economic impacts suggests a GVA multiplier effect of 1.6 for economic activity in the transport sector. This means that increasing direct employment and therefore GVA at Bristol Airport could have an additional indirect impact on the wider economy of around 188m. Whilst this wider economic impact appears significantly lower than other estimates listed above, it should be noted that this impact only captures indirect effects rather than induced or catalytic effects. Therefore, the lower wider economy employment impact estimate following the West of England LEP s guidance is understandably lower than when using benchmarks from other sources. The implication of failure to deliver further surface access improvements on GVA growth is outlined in the Table 4.3 below: 4 9

64 SECTION 4 NEED FOR INTERVENTION AND SCHEME OBJECTIVES Table 4.3: Potential GVA Implications of Bristol Airport Access Improvement Scheme Source: InterVISTAS Economic Impact of European Airports (2015), CH2M GVA Scenario ( m) Direct Jobs Bristol Airport Multiplier Effects Current Trends LEP Guidance Wider Economy: Indirect InterVISTAS Multiplier Effects Wider Economy: Induced Wider Economy: Catalytic Wider Economy: Total Current mppa mppa ,232 15mppa ,309 15mppa 608 1, ,720 2,540 Summary. In summary, airport expansion plans and permissions are already in place to enable Bristol Airport to grow to 10mppa. This level of growth is likely to be reached by 2024, facilitated partly by investment in surface access such as the South Bristol Link and AVTM MetroBus. Bristol Airport is forecast to grow to 15mppa by 2036; however, this growth will not be achievable in the absence of further surface access improvements. As a major employer and economic hub in the West of England, if Bristol Airport is unable to grow in line with current forecasts, economic growth and development in the sub region s wider economy is likely to be hindered. By failing to capitalise on latent demand for airport growth in Bristol, the wider economy may not realise the potential to create between 15,500 and 21,000 jobs and generate 550m to 1.3bn in annual GVA. This would represent a significant missed opportunity for the West of England economy Opportunity overview Within this context, this scheme would address issues of resilience, supporting economic growth and realising the benefits of a successful airport and thus could benefit multiple stakeholders in the West of England. That is, an intervention would result in positive economic externalities for the wider West of England economy, in addition to of current or future growth aspirations of Bristol Airport. As such, any transport intervention should be viewed in the context of delivering a strategic economic asset which will act as a public good for the betterment of wider society, rather than as an asset that only accrues benefits to a single stakeholder. 4.2 Identifying Objectives Introduction to Stage 1, Step 4a The tasks undertaken to inform this stage of the work were: Define scheme specific objectives to address the identified problems; and The objectives are to be informed by the work undertaken in Steps 1, 2 and Proposed objectives for the scheme The proposed scheme objectives are to: 4 10 Support sub regional and regional economic, employment and housing growth including future growth aspirations of Bristol Airport; To improve connectivity and multi modal surface access provision to and from Bristol Airport ensuring benefits of new infrastructure are shared with local communities; Enhance network resilience and reliability by addressing congestion along key strategic routes to the Airport and the wider sub region;

65 SECTION 4 NEED FOR INTERVENTION AND SCHEME OBJECTIVES Improving the environment and quality of life for residents and businesses in the area. A comparison of the JTS and scheme objectives are presented in Table 4.4. Table 4.4: Comparison of JTS and scheme objectives Option Support sub regional and regional economic, employment and housing growth including future growth aspirations of Bristol Airport To improve connectivity and multi modal surface access provision to and from Bristol Airport ensuring benefits of new infrastructure are shared with local communities Enhance network resilience and reliability by addressing congestion along key strategic routes to the Airport and the wider sub region Improving the environment and quality of life for residents and businesses in the area Support economic growth Reduce carbon emissions Promote accessibility Contribute to better safety, health and security Improve quality of life and a health natural environment 4.3 Defining the Geographical Area of Impact to be addressed by the Intervention Introduction to Stage 1, Step 4b This section of the reports defines the geographical area of impact to be addressed by the intervention. This is based on: An understanding of the geographical scope of the travel market and key origins and destinations; and, An analysis of the geographical extent of current and future transport problems and underlying drivers Geographical Area of Impact The analysis of the travel along the A38 presented in Section 2 shows that users of the A38 corridor are associated with locations in North Somerset/South Bristol and includes the Airport Section 2 also shows the travel to from the Airport. In 2015, Bristol Airport attracted 6.8m passengers, of which 2.4m came from the West of England, 1.2m from Devon and Cornwall, 1.2m from South Wales and 0.6m from Somerset. This means that roughly two thirds of the passengers access the Airport from the north. Of note is the 27% trips from the Bristol area including South Gloucestershire. Multi model opportunities will be more successful in higher density areas. Therefore the geographical context is focused on access to the Airport from the north. 4 11

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67 SECTION 5 Option Generation 5.1 Introduction to Stage 1, Step 5 The approach to option development has been two fold. First there has been consideration of different modal interventions, and secondly there has been consideration of the routes options could take. Following this, an initial list of options has been developed and considered. The primary focus of option development work has been the consideration of options between the Airport and South Bristol Link. North of the South Bristol Link there are numerous opportunities and issues associated with transport in the City of Bristol. This and wider network connectively has been partially considered at this stage, though it is noted that when developing options, connectively into the wider network is essential. This will be considered in subsequent optioneering work. Modal optioneering Route optioneering 5.2 Modal optioneering This section presents a range of modal interventions to address the scheme objectives Rail existing links to stations The Airport Flyer Express bus service between Bristol Bus Station, Bristol Temple Meads railway station and the Airport provides a regular (24 hour, 7 day a week) service. The Airport Flyer Express bus service would benefit from improved journey time and journey time reliability. Provision of bus links from other stations (such as Nailsea & Backwell or Yatton) is impractical, as such services would take a journey time that would probably be longer than from Temple Meads and only have a choice of relatively unsuitable roads to use. In addition, train services at Temple Meads are significantly more varied and frequent than at these stations Heavy rail direct connection To directly serve Bristol Airport by rail would require new infrastructure and services, as well as increased local requirements for rolling stock. There are no disused heavy rail lines in the immediate vicinity of the Airport terminal building that could be reinstated, so a direct rail link would require identifying at least some elements of a wholly new alignment. In addition to the basic challenge of doing so, this would be a particular challenge given the topography of the area. Bristol Airport is located at around 185m above sea level, and the highest point of the railway between Bristol and Nailsea is only about 40m above sea level near Long Ashton and Nailsea & Backwell itself is at 15m. The positioning of various combe and scar landform features indicate there are also locally steep gradients to deal with. 5 1

68 SECTION 5 OPTION GENERATION The nearest disused rail line to the Airport, that could potentially be used to provide an approach from the main line to within 3km of the Airport boundary (albeit the terminal is almost 2km away on the other side of the Airport), is the Wrington Vale Light Railway. This line closed in 1963, and ran from Congresbury to Blagdon. Congresbury was linked to the existing main line at Yatton by the Strawberry Line. The Strawberry Line is now used as a cycle route, and the alignment from Congresbury to Wrington is largely free from development. A new alignment would be required from somewhere in the vicinity of Wrington to the Airport. However, similar issues of topography would have to be overcome; Wrington is 17m above sea level, and overlooked by Wrington Hill at 166m above sea level. Though it would ultimately depend on the length of the alignment, the topography is likely to result in an alignment that includes relatively steep gradients for heavy rail (such as 1:40) and potentially include significant structures and earthworks Light rail direct connection One of the key features of light as opposed to heavy rail, is the ability of light rail vehicles (trams or tram trains) to traverse more topographically extreme alignments than heavy rail trains. This can take the form of both more steeply graded routes and more sever curvature. Hence, making use of the greater flexibility to deal with topography limitations would potentially make it easier to identify a deliverable light rail alignment, though the cost would still be significant. This could be mitigated somewhat in that a wholly new route may not be necessary, as a light rail alignment could probably be identified that followed existing roads, potentially reducing both the impact and cost. The most direct route to the Airport would clearly be along the A38, linking into the main railway line (for tram trains) near Long Ashton or using a light rail route following the Ashton Vale to Temple Meads (AVTM) and South Bristol Link Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) routes. A BRT scheme could be developed such that it could be converted to becoming light rail (or tramtrain) in the future Improved Public Transport links BRT Improvements to public transport access to Bristol Airport are most likely to involve use of the A38 corridor to access the Airport. In the first instance, enhancement of the Airport Flyer bus service is already planned, with the existing bus service set to become a BRT route with the advent of MetroBus services. Although not confirmed, this is likely to involve BRT vehicles operating the Airport Flyer, using the AVTM and South Bristol Link MetroBus alignments between the end of the AVTM at the Long Ashton P&R site and the A38 near King s Head Lane. Potential BRT provided services are also being considered to places further afield such as Weston super Mare. However, note that at this stage, no enhancements are currently planned to the A38 to provide BRT vehicles (or conventional buses) with any priority or advantage. But, given that the work is already underway to construct MetroBus, BRT routes already includes a direct link to the A38 and probable BRT services to the Airport, there is merit in considering options to upgrade parts of the A38 (on or off line) taking advantage of BRT s features. This could include sections of segregated alignment (guided and/or un guided) to replace key parts of currently road running that would benefit from such improvement (perhaps in the vicinity of Barrow Gurney, Barrow Common and Lulsgate Bottom to name but three areas). In the longer term, significant BRT infrastructure could potentially be upgraded to light rail. For instance, as indicated earlier in discussing light rail options, a future tram train option could involve using heavy rail as far as the SBL, then light rail following the initially developed BRT alignment to the Airport (broadly along the A38) Improved Public Transport links bus services Current public transport to Bristol Airport is dominated by services to/from central Bristol, in particular the Airport Flyer Express, which operates at 10 minute intervals through the day Monday 5 2

69 SECTION 5 OPTION GENERATION Saturday and 15 minute intervals on Sunday, with lower frequency in the evening and early morning, and an hourly overnight service. Other bus services are also available at the Airport. With the exception of Bath, which has a 30 minute interval service, other places are typically served hourly or less, in particular places to the south west of the Airport, such as Weston super Mare. There is merit in developing options that seek to enhance bus access to the Airport from places other than central Bristol. While this could include direct services from elsewhere in Bristol, given the very frequent nature of the Airport Flyer and its interchanges with other bus services and rail services, this is less likely to be worthwhile pursuing. Places south west of the Airport would be candidates for improved bus services. In particular Weston super Mare is the next major settlement south of the Airport, and currently has relatively poor links to the Airport. Improvements may come through BRT services between Bristol and Weston super Mare also passing the Airport, but it is unclear how frequent these would travel through Park and Ride Dependant on the selection of modal improvements, a Park and Ride site on the corridor to provide access into the City Centre Walking/cycling Access to the Airport by walking and cycling is not a viable option for many people, given the distance that are involved in travelling between the major residential areas and the Airport. However, provision of facilities for walking and cycling as part of any enhancements to the A38 should be built into designs. At present, some sections of the A38 have pavements alongside, generally associated with settlements. Any changes should seek to enhance these facilities for the benefit of local residents. Continuous provision of a pavement or off road cycle route would encourage some longer distance cycle trips to the Airport, because the road is heavily trafficked, which would be aimed at providing sustainable travel options for airport workers rather than air passengers Emerging Technology The scheme development work will be undertaken over a number of years and during this time there will be changes in technology. Things which are considered innovative today may be commonplace in the future. Technologies will change include traffic control, Intelligent Transport Systems, automated vehicles, in vehicle enhancements and mass transit. Future scheme development work will consider which changes will take place without the scheme, and therefore will form the Do Minimum situation in the future, and which could form part of the scheme Highway improvements In addition to the modal considerations above, the scheme development needs to consider opportunities for improving journey times and journey time reliability for car users. In particular, the improvements are needed for car users who do not have attractiveness alternative modes available. Highway options are considered in more detail in Section Route Optioneering Introduction A number of route options to improve the surface access to the Airport from the north have been identified and are described in this section Route Optioneering The following route options have been considered: 1. A38 pinch point style schemes (see location plan in Figure 5.1). 5 3

70 SECTION 5 OPTION GENERATION Yellow route Lulsgate Bottom by pass and roundabout Blue route Potter s Hill by pass Purple route by pass with junction improvements on A38 and rationalisation of existing junctions 2. A38 online from Bristol Airport to South Bristol Link 3. A38 offline from Bristol Airport to South Bristol Link 4. New link via Yatton station 5. New link via Nailsea station 6. New direct link Figure 5.1: Location plan of A38 pinch point style schemes The details of the pinch point style routes are as follows: Yellow Route New highway from the north of Lulsgate to south of Downside Farm to provide by pass to Lulsgate Bottom signal controlled junction. The route would connect to A38 and West Lane with the introduction of a new roundabout junction. Blue Route New route to provide a by pass to Potters Hill. The proposed highway would connect near Bridle Cottage to the south to Potters Hill, passing Felton to West and connecting to new roundabout junction on the A38 south of the existing airport roundabout. Purple Route This route is similar to Blue Route as it provides a by pass to Potters Hill but in addition to this there are improvements to West Lane/A38 junction and a new roundabout at the A38/Hobbs Lane/ Barrow Lane junction. This option takes into account rationalisation of existing junctions on Newditch Lane and Currells Lane. A plan showing scheme routes is presented in Figure

71 SECTION 5 OPTION GENERATION Figure 5.2: Location plan of scheme routes Options considered comprise of: Dualling of A38 this option comprises dualling the existing A38 carriageway with an additional 3rd lane to incorporate MetroBus provision along the existing A38 corridor. The dualling would take a place between the Airport and the SBL. Offline dual carriageway this option provides an offline A38 dual carriageway that incorporates a 3rd lane for public transport. The route runs to the south of existing A38 corridor and goes off line southwards from the Colliter s Brook Farm passing Greenditch Farm to the south. The route passes south of the Bristol Water reservoirs and joins the existing A38 alignment adjacent to Freemans Lane. It then follows the existing A38 corridor to the existing airport roundabout. Off line bus route new single carriage for public transport running off line from Colliter s Brook Farm passing Greenditch Farm to the south. The route passes south of the Bristol Water reservoirs and joins the existing A38 alignment adjacent to Freemans Lane. The proposed route then follows the A38 corridor to the existing airport roundabout. New links to the rail network. Options include a direct link into Bristol to links via Yatton station or Nailsea station. 5.4 Description of Proposed Options Table 5.1 presents a comparison of scheme options. The focus of these options has been the access from the Airport to Bristol City Centre. The options also take into account the needs of the wider origin and destination of journeys that utilise the A38 corridor. 5 5

72 SECTION 5 Table 5.1: Comparison of scheme options Option Existing Constraints Existing Utilities Advantages Disadvantages Heavy rail direct from Bristol Temple Meads 1. No existing alignment to airport; new route required, connected to main rail line near Long Ashton. 2. Significant altitude gain between existing railway and airport (c150m) affects choice and design of alignment. 1. Unknown 1. Fully segregated high quality link to the Airport, which should provide short journey times. 2. Good connections with wider rail network at Bristol Temple Meads. 1. High cost and acceptability of construction new alignment. 2. Purchase of third party land required. 3. Service frequency would not be as great as BRT or bus Heavy rail from Yatton 1. Uses former Strawberry Line alignment to approach airport from the south. 2. New alignment would be required from vicinity of Wrington to airport. 3. Significant altitude gain between Wrington and airport (c150m) affects choice of alignment and design. 4. Approach is opposite side of airport terminals. 1. Unknown 1. Fully segregated high quality link to the Airport, which should provide short journey times albeit not as quick as a more direct rail link (previous option). 2. Good connections with wider rail network at Bristol Temple Meads. 1. High cost and acceptability of construction new alignment. 2. Purchase of third party land required. 3. Re instatement of part of disused rail alignment that is currently a cycle path either restricts rail development or need new cycle route. 4. Service frequency would not be as great as BRT or bus Light rail (tram train) direct from BTM 1. Features the same as Heavy rail direct from BTM, though with tram trains a light rail compatible alignment from Long Ashton vicinity to airport allows more flexibility for gradient and curvature. 1. Unknown Features the same as Heavy rail direct from Bristol Temple Meads....plus 1. Light rail flexibility over heavy rail alignment (curvature and gradient) Features the same as Heavy rail direct from Bristol Temple Meads. Light rail (tram train) from Yatton 1. Features the same as Heavy rail from Yatton, though with tram trains a light rail compatible alignment from Yatton to airport allows more flexibility for gradient and curvature. 1. Unknown Features the same as Heavy rail from Yatton. plus 1. Light rail flexibility over heavy rail alignment (curvature and gradient) Features the same as Heavy rail from Yatton 5 6

73 SECTION 5 OPTION GENERATION Option Existing Constraints Existing Utilities Advantages Disadvantages Light rail new route 1. Follow AVTM and SBL BRT routes, then new alignment from Long Ashton. 2. Route from Long Ashton same as Light rail (tram train) direct from BTM 1. Unknown Features the same as Heavy rail direct from BTM....plus Light rail flexibility over heavy rail alignment (curvature and gradient). 2. Linkages with more of city centre than heavy rail. Features the same as Heavy rail direct from BTM. plus 1. Need to convert BRT route for combined light rail/brt operations. 2. Not as well connected to the main line rail network as heavy rail. Light rail conversion of BRT routes 1. Follow AVTM and SBL BRT routes, then follow BRT routes along A38 As BRT route options As BRT route options plus 1. Long term development of BRT need not be done at the outset, so could be a long term aim 2. Potentially quicker and use higher capacity vehicles than BRT, if future needs require this, providing segregated alignment. As BRT route options plus 1. Need to convert BRT route for combined light rail/brt operations. 2. Segregation from traffic key to providing fast and reliable journey time. 3. Changes requirements for BRT development (which may be incompatible with some BRT options). BRT Dual carriageway on the existing corridor 1. Number of listed buildings along the existing A38 route affected 2. Pinch point between the Bristol Water reservoirs and impose significant difficulties for construction of a new road in the vicinity of the reservoirs 3. Residential properties affected 1. Number of existing services would be affected by the works 1. Dualling carriageway between SBL to Bristol Airport to address the traffic volume issues on the existing corridor. 2. Option incorporates provision for MetroBus 1. Land purchase required 2. Limited space to provide dual carriageway between the reservoirs. 3. Listed buildings affected by the proposal. BRT Offline dualling 1. Proximity to the Collitier s Brook 2. Route runs through the existing Tree Preservation Orders(unknown number of potentially affected trees) 3. Route goes over Elwell Brook 4. Proposed route runs online in the vicinity of the listed building (Newditch Farm) 5. Number of existing residential properties affected by the proposal. 1. PT could use a new link to serve improved access to BA from Downside Rd. The proposed PT link could separate from the main route south of Potters Hill and run between Downside and Lulsgate Farm to the new roundabout with BA on Downside Road. 2. New alignment could run off line from SBL to a new roundabout south of existing BIA roundabout on A Diversions of affected apparatus would be required, further investigation required. 1. Off line route provides advantage of dualling the proposed route and addressing the traffic volume issues on the existing corridor 2. Deals with the capacity issues on the existing side roads 3. Opportunity to provide MetroBus link and possibility of a new access independent to the general public ingress. 5 7

74 SECTION 5 OPTION GENERATION Option Existing Constraints Existing Utilities Advantages Disadvantages Off line bus route A38 Pinch point scheme option yellow route A38 Pinch point scheme option blue route A38 Pinch point scheme option purple route 1. Proximity to the Collitier s Brook 2. Route runs through the existing Tree Preservation Orders(unknown number of potentially affected trees) 3. Route goes over Elwell Brook 4. Proposed route runs online in the vicinity of the listed building (Newditch Farm) 5. Number of existing residential properties affected by the proposal. 1. Proposed route runs in the close vicinity of the existing listed buildings (Downside Farm and Lulsgate Farm) 1. Route runs across existing RIGS (disused quarry) and Common Land. 2. Existing wildlife site affected. 3. Residential properties may be affected. 1. Route runs across RIGS (discussed quarry) and Common Land. 2. Current wildlife site and common land affected. 3. Residential properties may be affected. 1. The proposed PT link could separate from the on line route south of Potters Hill and run between Downside and Lulsgate Farm to the new roundabout with BA on Downside Road. 1. Some major apparatus may be affected (water main, cable overhead and underground, MP main, sewer), further investigation required. 1. Some major diversions may be required (including MP main, water main, sewer, HV cables), further investigation required 1. Some major diversions may be required (including MP main), further investigation required. 1. Diversions of affected apparatus would be required, further investigation required. 1. Provides opportunity to resolve capacity issues at Downside Road and West Lane junction. 2. Lower cost in comparison with large scheme alternatives. 3. Low environmental impacts. 1. Provides solution for capacity issues on Downside Road and West Lane junction. 2. Opportunity for improving transport provision. 3. New roundabout junction improving capacity. 1. Provides solution for capacity issues on Downside Road. 2. Opportunity for improving public transport provision. 3. Resolves access issues from Barrow Lane and Hobbs Lane. 4. New roundabout junction improving capacity. 1. Option provides improvement of public transport travel time. 2. Provides PT provision. 3. Cost of the scheme lower than offline dualling. 1. Option will not accommodate the future growth of airport. 2. No public transport provision. 3. Does not resolve the issue of queues on the side roads. 4. Purchase of third party land required. 1. Option will not accommodate the future growth of airport. 2. Proposal crosses disused quarry ground treatment required/possible contamination. 3. Current Wildlife Sites and Common Land affected. 4. Purchase of third party land required. 1. Doesn t allow for the future growth of airport. 2. Purchase of third party land required. 3. Proposal crosses disused quarry ground treatment required. 4. Current Wildlife Sites and Common Land affected. 5 8

75 SECTION 5 OPTION GENERATION Option Existing Constraints Existing Utilities Advantages Disadvantages Park and Ride 1. Green Belt restrictions limit the development of large sites along the A38 2. Suitable sites may have a number of impacts including on existing structures, environmental and private properties. Unknown 1. Could serve the needs of A38 users both for Bristol City Centre and the Airport 2. Existing bus services could serve the park and ride Land purchase required 2. Identification of a suitable large site on the A38 towards Bristol 3. Requires accompanying bus priority measures along the corridor to provide maximise benefits for users 5 9

76

77 SECTION 6 Initial Sifting 6.1 Introduction to Stage 1, Step 6 In this section, the identified scheme options are assessed and initially sifted against the scheme objectives. The purpose is to discount non runner options early on in the process and to focus attention on the options that are better aligned with the scheme objectives. The sifting uses the following criteria against the objectives: 1 No fit 2 Minor fit 3 Moderate fit 4 Moderate/high fit 5 High fit 6.2 Initial sifting of options against objective Table 6.1 sets out details of the initial sift of scheme options against objectives. Table 6.1: Assessment of scheme options against scheme objectives Option Support sub regional and regional economic, employment and housing growth including future growth aspirations of Bristol Airport To improve connectivity and multi modal surface access provision to and from Bristol Airport ensuring benefits of new infrastructure are shared with local communities Enhance network resilience and reliability by addressing congestion along key strategic routes to the Airport and the wider sub region Improving the environment and quality of life for residents and businesses in the area Heavy rail direct from BTM Heavy rail from Yatton Light rail (tram train) direct from BTM Light rail (tram train) from Yatton 4 Moderate/high fit 4 Moderate/high fit 3 Moderate fit 3 Moderate fit 4 Moderate/high fit 4 Moderate/high fit 3 Moderate fit 3 Moderate fit 4 Moderate/high fit 4 Moderate/high fit 4 Moderate/high fit 3 Moderate fit 4 Moderate/high fit 4 Moderate/high fit 4 Moderate/high fit 3 Moderate fit Light rail new route 4 Moderate/high fit 4 Moderate/high fit 4 Moderate/high fit 2 Minor fit Light rail conversion of BRT routes BRT Dual carriageway on the existing corridor 4 Moderate/high fit 4 Moderate/high fit 4 Moderate/high fit 3 Moderate fit 3 Moderate fit 4 Moderate/high fit 4 Moderate/high fit 3 Moderate fit BRT Offline dualling 3 Moderate fit 2 Minor fit 4 Moderate/high fit 2 Minor fit A38 Pinch point scheme option yellow route 2 Minor fit 1 No fit 2 Minor fit 2 Minor fit 6 1

78 SECTION 6 INITIAL SIFTING Option Support sub regional and regional economic, employment and housing growth including future growth aspirations of Bristol Airport To improve connectivity and multi modal surface access provision to and from Bristol Airport ensuring benefits of new infrastructure are shared with local communities Enhance network resilience and reliability by addressing congestion along key strategic routes to the Airport and the wider sub region Improving the environment and quality of life for residents and businesses in the area A38 Pinch point scheme option blue route A38 Pinch point scheme option purple route 2 Minor fit 1 No fit 2 Minor fit 2 Minor fit 2 Minor fit 1 No fit 2 Minor fit 2 Minor fit Park and ride 2 Minor fit 2 Minor fit 2 Minor fit 2 Minor fit 6.3 Options to take forward The initial sifting of the options reveals the heavy rail, light rail, BRT, park and ride and on and off line highway improvements meet all of the scheme objectives. The pinch point schemes, may provide some initial congestion relief at specific locations, but will not provide sufficient capacity on the corridor to accommodate future year growth, and provide multimodal surface access. These schemes do not address constraints on the whole corridor. Option development and further sifting needs to consider the locations/quantum s/phasing of development in the West of England up to 2036 that will be set out in the JSP. The mode/routing of the scheme option will be selected to support the preferred JSP strategy. There is merit in both public transport and major highway interventions, recognising the different markets they serve. The Development Funding application, being submitted to DfT in July 2016, will be to develop the scheme. Part of this work will include the development of an Option Assessment Report, which will consider the multi modal rationale presented in this work in more detail. 6 2

79 SECTION 7 Emerging business case 7.1 Introduction The Department for Transport has set out guidance on developing a transport business case. The recommended approach shows whether a scheme: Is supported by a robust case for change that fits with wider public policy objectives the strategic case demonstrates value for money the economic case is commercially viable the commercial case is financially affordable the financial case is achievable the management case A Strategic Outline Business Case, will be the first of three business cases that consider these cases. Subsequent Outline and Full business cases will update the information presented in the Strategic Outline Business Case, with more refined assessments based on the more detailed scheme development work. At this option development stage, the evidence indicates the Bristol South West Economic Link scheme will offer acceptable strategic, economic, commercial, financial and management cases as explained below. 7.2 A robust case for change Transport interventions along the A38 in the vicinity of Bristol Airport could result in a number of significant indirect benefits for the West of England economy which are unrelated to the Airport itself. These include: Facilitation of new housing in line with the targets stated in the Joint Spatial Plan; Facilitation of new employment floorspace in line with the targets stated in the Joint Spatial Plan; Employment creation as a result of employment floorspace delivery; Business relocation and expansion due to increased business attractiveness; Inward investment due to increased investor confidence; Agglomeration impacts and subsequent productivity uplifts; GVA uplift (from employment creation and productivity uplifts); Land value uplifts; Expansion of the leisure and tourism economy; and Increased tax base through income tax (from increased employment), corporation tax (from increased business base), stamp duty and council tax (from increased housing) and VAT (from increased consumption). Airport expansion plans and permissions are already in place to enable Bristol Airport to grow to 10mppa. This level of growth is likely to be reached by 2024, facilitated partly by investment in surface access such as the South Bristol Link and AVTM MetroBus. Bristol Airport is forecast to grow to 15mppa by 2036; however, this growth will not be achievable in the absence of further surface access improvements. As a major employer and economic hub in the West of England, if Bristol 7 1

80 SECTION 7 EMERGING BUSINESS CASE Airport is unable to grow in line with current forecasts, economic growth and development in the sub region s wider economy is likely to be hindered. By failing to capitalise on latent demand for airport growth in Bristol, the wider economy may not realise the potential to create between 15,500 and 21,000 jobs and generate 550m and 1.3bn in annual GVA. This would represent a significant missed opportunity for the West of England economy. Within this context, transport interventions to improve network efficiency along the A38 could benefit multiple stakeholders, including the wider business community, landowners and developers, local and national government and commuters, in addition to Bristol Airport. An intervention would result in positive economic externalities for the wider West of England economy, in addition to current or future growth aspirations of Bristol Airport. As such, any transport intervention should be viewed in the context of delivering a strategic economic asset which will act as a public good for the betterment of wider society, rather than as an asset that only accrues benefits to a single stakeholder. The assessment suggest that there are a number of underlying causes to the problems the scheme seeks to solve: Concentration of employment growth Recent changes in employment growth particularly in central Bristol and the north fringe of Bristol are resulting in greater traffic flows into Bristol; New housing developments New housing developments in locations such as eastern Westonsuper Mare are increasing the level of longer distance commuting flows into and out of Bristol. Certain routes such as the M5 are slowly becoming less resilient and drivers are seeking alternative routes across North Somerset such as the A38; Continued growth at Bristol Airport The Airport continues to see growth in passenger numbers which is reflected in the existing planning permission to extend the terminal and facilities to accommodate 10m passengers annually. It is predicted the Airport will reach 10m passengers annually around 2023/2024; Limited public transport networks across North Somerset Whilst there has been some growth in public transport use along specific corridors in Bristol, public transport networks are less well developed in the periphery surrounding Bristol. This means reliance on car usage correspondingly is much higher; and Linked to above is the suitability and directness of certain routes across North Somerset many going through settlements with speed and weight restrictions. The initial scheme objectives are: Support sub regional and regional economic, employment and housing growth including future growth aspirations of Bristol Airport; To improve connectivity and multi modal surface access provision to and from Bristol Airport ensuring benefits of new infrastructure are shared with local communities; Enhance network resilience and reliability by addressing congestion along key strategic routes to the Airport and the wider sub region; Improving the environment and quality of life for residents and businesses in the area. 7.3 The scheme has the potential to offer high value for money High level cost benefit analysis work has been undertaken to establish the potential value for money category for some scheme options. At this stage there are numerous scheme options and work has not been undertaken to hone in on preferred options. However, it is important to consider the likely value for money category to ensure the scheme concept has merit before commitment to further scheme development work. 7 2

81 SECTION 7 EMERGING BUSINESS CASE An initial value for money assessment has been based on scheme A38 online and offline scheme options, with public transport provision. The scheme cost has been developed as explained in Section 7.5, and assuming the scheme opens in 2024, the Present Value of Costs is between 62.36m (A38 online scheme option) and 71.37m (A38 offline scheme options). The GBATS4 model has been used to assess the scale of transport user benefits. An A38 online scheme option has been modelled in a future year scenarios, and when compared to do minimum scheme options, this results in a Present Value of Benefits of m. The model scenario used in this assessment has included the following growth assumptions: Core Strategy spatial allocation of growth to 2026; Forecasts controlled to Tempro; and Airport capacity capped at 10mppa. The above assumptions do not include further development envisaged from the regional Spatial Plan, which is expected to add further pressure onto this corridor. Further work will be needed to assess the scheme in relation to Spatial Plan growth and airport growth beyond 10mppa. Hence the above user benefit estimate has been uplifted by 10% has been applied to reflect JSP development, and airport expansion. If Marginal External Costs (assumed to be 18% of user benefits) and Wider Economic Impacts (assumed to be 12% of use benefits), this provides a Present Value of Benefits of m. Therefore the Benefit to Cost Ratio of the scheme could be in the order of 2.23 to 2.55, which offers High Value for Money. 7.4 There are commercially viable options The West of England has developed a number of major transport scheme with varying procurement mechanisms including: Traditional approach, for example North Fringe to Hengrove Package and Ashton Vale to Temple Meads MetroBus schemes; and Design and Build, for example South Bristol Link. In addition, the Authority has wider experience of built environment schemes developed using ECI and PFI. The nature of this scheme means that a procurement approach will be available. Existing frameworks will allow the initial stages of the OBC work to commence quickly. The procurement approach for subsequent stages of the OBC will be confirmed during the early stages of the work. The work could be undertaken using existing framework contracts or could be procures through the market. 7.5 There are a range of different options, to provide an affordable solution Scheme costs have been developed by considering the costs for other schemes including South Bristol Link, and North Fringe Hengrove Package. The cost estimates are as follows: On line dualling of A38 between SBL and the Airport (length of 6.4km). Cost estimate is m. Off line dual carriageway and bus lane (4.1km off line and 2.2km on line from Freemans Lane). Cost estimate is m. Table 7.1 sets out initial scheme cost. 7 3

82 SECTION 7 EMERGING BUSINESS CASE Table 7.1: Initial scheme costs Preparation costs (between OBC and construction) Land and property purchase Construction costs TOTAL On line option Base cost 6,000,000 4,123,000 56,136,000 66,260,000 Risk 600, ,000 5,614,000 6,626,000 Inflation 1,212, ,000 11,340,000 13,384,000 TOTAL 7,812,000 5,368,000 73,090,000 86,270,000 Off line option Base cost 6,000,000 3,242,000 66,592,000 75,834,000 Risk 600, ,000 6,659,000 7,583,000 Inflation 1,212, ,000 13,452,000 15,319,000 TOTAL 7,812,000 4,221,000 86,703,000 98,736,000 It is envisaged that a rail based scheme would be a higher cost to highway based solutions. 7.6 The scheme is deliverable and well supported The Councils have a proven track record in the delivery of major transport schemes and have the resource, capability and processes required to deliver another major scheme successfully, to time and budget. At present, the following major schemes are being progressed: Bath Transportation Package; MetroBus including Ashton Vale to Temple Meads, South Bristol Link and North Fringe to Hengrove Package; Local Sustainable Transport Funding; Cycle City Ambition Funding; and Better Bus Area Funding including the smartcard programme. Of particular relevance to this scheme is MetroBus. MetroBus currently comprises three schemes Ashton Vale to Temple Meads (AVTM), South Bristol Link (SBL) and North Fringe to Hengrove. The AVTM is bus rapid transit route that will provide frequent services from the Long Ashton Park and Ride site in North Somerset to Bristol City Centre via Temple Meads. It includes a guided bus way avoiding Brunel Way where congestion is expected to worse over the next few years. Construction works are underway with piling and preparation for the various structures. The SBL is a new link road and bus rapid transit between the A370 Long Ashton by pass and Hengrove Park. Main construction works are underway with the programme for substantial completion and road opening in December The North Fringe to Hengrove MetroBus scheme is a bus rapid transit route that will link communities across South Gloucestershire through to Bristol City Centre and South Bristol. Work is now well underway with eight projects that form part of the scheme under construction. During this work the Councils have a developed intelligent client capability and have developed collaborative working arrangements, particularly at the technical interface, this will be delivered within a strong governance structure and framework. The Councils already have strong relationship with the Airport, developed over many years and resulting in a mature relationship. The Chief Executive Officer of the Airport is a West of England LEP member. The scheme is supported by local stakeholders, as illustrated in the letters of support contained in Appendix A from: 7 4

83 SECTION 7 EMERGING BUSINESS CASE Bristol Airport; Business West; South Bristol Business; Cater Business Park Traders Group Ltd; Bristol Sport; and Heart of the South West Local Enterprise Partnership Project governance The proposed project governance is shown in Figure 7.2. Figure 7:2: Project governance A well functioning governance structure will be crucial to the successful delivery of the scheme. North Somerset and Bristol City Councils will therefore establish a Project Delivery Team and a Stakeholder Reference Group to work together to develop and deliver the scheme. Bristol Airport will be included on the Project Board as a key member of the Stakeholder Reference Group. This organisational and governance structure is illustrated above and will be embedded within the existing governance arrangements which have a proven track record of project delivery and robust project management. The creation of the Joint Transport Board (JTB) brought together the four authority Lead Members with responsibility for transport in a legally constituted forum. The Councils set the framework for policy and scheme development which is enacted by the JTB with challenge and advisory roles provided by the Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) and Joint Scrutiny Committee. 7 5

84 SECTION 7 EMERGING BUSINESS CASE The Councils via the Programme Assurance Board (PAB) have put in place structures to resource project delivery and ensure consistency between major projects where ever that project is on the life cycle. PAB provides high level cross authority ownership and a robust framework for challenge within the context of project delivery to the required outputs and outcomes. It will provide decisionmaking and review and provide overall strategic governance. The project sponsor will be responsible for delivering the new capabilities through the management (planning and monitoring) of the project and will report directly to the Project Board setup specifically to oversee and manage the development of the Outline Business Case and made up of key representatives from both Bristol City and North Somerset Councils together with LEP and business representatives. The project manager is responsible for the delivery of the product that is relevant, to the required standard of quality within the specified constraints of time and cost. The consultant team will be responsible for delivery of the required products as detailed within the consultant brief and as required for the Outline Business Case. The team proposed for this Outline Business Case has an established track record over many years for delivering high quality major projects to time and budget within the West of England including Weston Package and South Bristol Link. They will use their extensive project management skills and local understanding and knowledge to deliver a high quality product. 7 6

85 SECTION 8 Next Steps This section presents the programme and cost breakdown for the Outline Business Case. 8.1 Programme The OBC project is shown in Figure 8.1. Figure 8.1: Scheme Programme The scheme programme is aligned to the timetable for the JSP preparation which involves the publication of the first draft for consultation in the summer/autumn of 2016 followed by the publication of the submission plan in spring 2017 with examination in the summer/autumn of Costs for OBC Table 8.1 shows the costs for the OBC. Table 8.1: OBC costs Task Sub Task Cost (2016 prices) Project delivery team/management including programme management 352,000 Reporting Option Assessment Report 50,000 Appraisal specification report 20,000 Strategic Outline Business Case 85,000 Outline Business Case 120,

86 SECTION 8 NEXT STEPS Task Sub Task Cost (2016 prices) Design Surveys to inform design 50,000 Design and scheme costing 1,135,000 Traffic modelling Traffic data collection 185,000 Transport model development 269,000 Transport modelling of the scheme 90,000 Environmental Environmental surveys and impact assessment 315,000 Management Case Consultation and stakeholder engagement (including comms) 98,000 Land agent 81,000 Total 2,800,

87 Appendix A Letters of Support

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90 Mr David Carter Director of Development and Environment North Somerset Council Town Hall Weston super Mare BS23 1UJ 22 July 2016 Dear David Bristol South West Economic Link Support for bid submission to Large Local Major Schemes Fund I write to express Business West s strong support for the West of England Local Enterprise Partnership s bid to the Large Local Major Schemes Fund, focusing on the key strategic corridors between Bristol and Bristol Airport. Business West is the lead business organisation in the West of England. We bring together the Chambers of Commerce for Bristol including North Somerset, Bath & NES, South Gloucestershire, Gloucestershire and Wiltshire and, together with our Initiative business leadership team, represent and speak for over 18,000 business and employer members from the smallest to the largest organisations. We enable business to have a strong voice and resource to help ensure strong healthy futures for all who live and work in Bristol, Bath, West of England and the wider area. Improving transport and access is one of the key issues for business and one which holds back our local economy fully realising its potential. We put a very considerable amount of work and effort into helping to improve transport and access through working with our local councils and other partners. This extends across a wide basket of measures from the delivery of the current major schemes through to smaller sustainable transport measures and across all modes. The A38 corridor acts as a strategic radial route within the Bristol and North Somerset local highway network and provides a key link between Weston super Mare, Devon, Cornwall and Bristol, via Bristol Airport, and serves multiple journey purposes including commuting, retail, business, freight, education and leisure trips. The route is also used for business travel, freight movements and other non commuting trips by local residents, as well as for access to Bristol Airport for air passengers. We recognise that travel demand tied to these journey purposes will grow going forward in tandem with wider sustainable economic growth and airport expansion in particular. As a consequence there is significant and growing travel demand on this part of the A38 corridor. Over the past 16 years Bristol Airport has been one of the fastest growing UK Airports and is now the largest UK airport without either access by dual carriageway road or rail. As a key international gateway for Bristol, Bath and the wider south west region it plays an important growing role to help support our local and regional economy. As a successful European trading city and wider region we need direct, easy access to global customers and markets and for business, education and leisure

91 visitors. We have strong ambitions to grow and build a stronger sustainable economy as part of UK plc but this needs to be supported by high quality transport infrastructure. Planning permission is in place for the development of Airport facilities to handle up to 10 million passengers per annum and we are aware that forecasts suggest that demand will continue to grow beyond this threshold. Good quality surface access to the airport particularly along this A38 corridor is needed to address the existing and future needs of the airport and will help unlock the economic benefits of growth. We consider that transformational multi modal change is needed to address existing and future transport needs rather than minor interventions. At present the negative impact on Bristol Airport of the current congestion and lack of resilience in the local transport network is mirrored on a larger scale for commuter traffic between Bristol and North Somerset. Poor transport links reduce the area s economic competitiveness and have been a significant constraint on output for many years and will have a direct bearing on those considering where they make new investment. Major improvements to these corridors, encompassing road and rail options, have the potential to be transformative for the West of England economy, reducing congestion and unlocking the full potential of Bristol Airport as a catalyst for growth. The West of England councils are currently delivering major transport schemes including the MetroBus Rapid Transit network and Metro Rail. Such schemes are much needed, but alone will not solve the wider issues of congestion and network resilience in the long term. As part of the Joint Transport Plan being developed by the councils, which we are supporting, improvements along key strategic corridors between Bristol and the Airport would put Bristol Airport at the heart of an integrated transport system driving long term economic prosperity and delivering benefits across the city region. We look forward to working with North Somerset Council and other councils and partners to progress this potentially transformative project with you. Yours sincerely James Durie Chief Executive Bristol Chamber of Commerce & WoE Initiative T: M: E: James.Durie@businesswest.co.uk

92 The Development and Environment Director, North Somerset Council. A38 Access Improvement Scheme. Supportive Response to BID Submission Please find set out below a statement of support from South Bristol Business to the application by the Wets of England LEP for development costs for the Scheme. Who we are. South Bristol Business is an informal grouping of companies coming together to express support for the further economic improvement of South Bristol/North Somerset area. The A38 is central and key to business operations for South Bristol/North Somerset businesses. The A38 is a daily business operation for the movement of goods and services. It is also vitally important for the operations of Bristol Airport both now and into the future with its development plans for expansion in line with Government policies for Regional Airports. The reality is however that the A38 lacks capacity and often traffic flows are brought to a standstill. Furthermore there is no priority lane for public transport which is essential particularly for Airport passenger use. An improvement scheme is vital, when one considers significant developments planned for the South Bristol / North Somerset area. We support the application for development funding by the West of England LEP Yours faithfully, Mike Knight for South Bristol Business. South Bristol Business Unit 5, Bakers Park, Cater Road, Bishopsworth, Bristol, BS13 7TT Tel: mikeknight.sbb@cbtg.demon.co.uk

93 David Carter, Director of Development and Environment, North Somerset Council Town Hall, Weston super Mare, BS23 1UJ 28 July A38 Access Improvement Scheme Supportive Response to West of England LEP BID Submission. I wish on behalf of Cater Business Park Traders Group Ltd to convey our support for the application by the West of England LEP for development costs for the above scheme. Who we are. Cater Business Park, is a Business Improvement District and a leading Business Park in South Bristol, comprising sixty companies. The A38 is a daily key South West link for companies on this Business Park for Business Operations, People movement, Transportation of materials and goods. It is also a vital link for the operations of Bristol Airport. The current A38 position is that it is lacking in capacity to deal with the demands placed upon it and all too often, traffic flow is brought to a halt. This situation will only be exacerbated by future demands placed upon the A38 by significant projected development proposals in South Bristol/ North Somerset area. The A38 as a single lane operation, cannot provide adequately for the quick efficient alternative movement of public transport. We trust that funds will be made available to enable an Improvement Scheme Study to commence. Yours faithfully, Mike Knight BID2 Scheme Manager

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95 25 July 2016 Mr David Carter Director Development and Environment North Somerset Council Town Hall Weston super Mare BS23 1UJ Dear Mr Carter Project: South West Bristol Link We are sending this letter of support for your proposal to DfT for the development of a major transport scheme to improve access to the South West of Bristol A38, A370 Corridor. This will include the need for improved surface access to Bristol Airport on the grounds that existing economic growth is restricted by airport traffic using much of the existing capacity of the Highway Network. It is possible that the study will conclude that a mass transit system through the corridor is the favoured solution linking to Bristol Temple Meads. As your adjacent LEP to the South we have a shared interest in the outcome of this bid as some usage will be from businesses and individuals in our area. We hope that your proposal is successful and look forward to hearing from you on the outcome. Yours sincerely Chris Garcia Chief Executive Heart of the South West Local Enterprise Partnership Mobile: chris.garcia@heartofswlep.co.uk Heart of the South West LEP CIC, is a Community Interest Company Limited by Guarantee. Registered in England and Wales. No , Registered Office, PO Box 805, Exeter, Devon, EX1 9UU