1. Summary dashboard Introduction The strategy targets... 4

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2 Contents 1. Summary dashboard Introduction The strategy targets... 4 Strategy targets... 4 There are three objectives to be achieved by 2020:... 4 Visitor numbers... 4 Visitor nights... 5 Average visitor expenditure... 6 Total visitor expenditure... 7 Seasonality Employment Employment Other indicators Gross Value Added Business trips Airport passengers and routes Festival tickets Occupancy and room rates Visitor experience Visitor Attractions Comparison with other cities Visitor trips Occupancy comparisons Hotel Average Daily Rates Summary and looking forward Annex A: Definition of tourism sector... A-1 Annex B: UKTS and GBTS... B-1 Contact: John Nolan Tel: jnolan@sqw.co.uk Approved by: Bruce Macdonald Date: 19/10/15 Director

3 1. Summary dashboard This report presents the monitoring data for the third year of the Edinburgh 2020 Tourism Strategy. The strategy set a base year of 2010 and this annual report presents progress against its objectives and a number of other indicators. The data presented are as up to date as possible, however, most of the sources are only available a year or more after the period they cover. The data here covers progress to the end of Since 2010, tourism in Edinburgh has performed strongly against a backdrop of continuing economic recovery in our main markets across the UK, Europe and US. The national tourism surveys show significant growth, mainly as a result of a large increase (21%) in domestic visitors from England, Wales and Scotland. The number of overseas trips have increased by 6%. Total tourism expenditure has grown by 23% since The sector continues to perform well against strategy targets for growth in visitor numbers. However, it is slightly below target in terms of the value of the sector measured by visitor expenditure (in 2010 prices). Table 1-1: Summary indicators Core indicators Baseline (3 year average) Change 1 Total number of visitor trips (million) % 2 Total expenditure by visitors m 1,015 1,252 23% Average spend per trip - all staying visitors s % Seasonality - % of trips in winter months (Oct March) 40% 38% -2% Estimated additional jobs supported by the increase in tourism expenditure - 3,800 - Other indicators Number of business trips (million) % 7 GVA generated by visitor expenditure m % 8 Average hotel occupancy % 76.9% 80.6% 5% 9 Revenue Per Available Room (revpar) s % ICCA international assoc. meetings rank Overall quality rating for Edinburgh visit % Source: SQW analysis

4 Data sources (1, 2 & 3) For 2010 based on UKTS and IPS data. For 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, the figures use a three year average of GBTS, IPS and an estimate for Northern Ireland (4) Seasonality data in 2010 is from UKTS and IPS, in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 it uses GBTS and IPS (so does not include an allowance for NI) (5 & 7) Tourism employment and GVA from visitor expenditure uses the expenditure data from (2) and applies ratios of turnover to employment (and GVA) from the Scottish Annual Business Survey 2013 (6) The number of business trips is from UKTS and IPS in 2010 and three year averages for GBTS and IPS in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 (it does not include an allowance for NI) (8 & 9) The average hotel occupancy data and RevPAR is from STR Global for 2014, provided by Scottish Enterprise (10) The ICCA ranking is awarded by ICCA (11) The overall quality rating for Edinburgh visits is based on a single question in the Edinburgh Visitor Survey each year. The survey conducted by Lynne Jones Research. However the last available data is for

5 2. Introduction This paper is the third monitoring update for the Edinburgh Tourism Strategy to It provides guidance on the progress made against the targets set out for Edinburgh over the next decade. The Strategy sets out a number of targets for tourism to These have been developed to strike a balance between being ambitious and aspirational as well as achievable and realistic. This monitoring report looks at progress against these targets as well as a number of other indicators that are helpful in assessing the level of tourism activity in the city. The data presented are as up to date as possible, however, most of the sources used have a lag, and are only available a year or more after the period they cover. For example, the most recent tourism data for Edinburgh is for Data on GVA from the Scottish Annual Business Survey is only available to The main estimates are based on the figures from the UK Tourism Survey (UKTS), Great Britain Travel Survey (GBTS) and the International Passenger Survey (IPS) in 2010 to The survey results are published by VisitScotland. In presenting these results, VisitScotland emphasises the margins of error in comparing individual years and suggest using three year averages. To make the data as robust as possible, and avoid results which fluctuate too sharply, we have used three year averages for the 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 results from the GBTS and IPS data. The sources for measuring the baseline (and target) values were outlined in the original technical report for the Strategy. Information about changes to the measurement of domestic tourism is described in Annex C. 3

6 3. The strategy targets Strategy targets There are three objectives to be achieved by 2020: to increase the number of visits to the city by one third to increase the average spending of visitors to the city by 10% (at 2010 prices) to reduce seasonality across the sector. Visitor numbers The number of trips has increased by 15%. This is above the target to date Objective 1: Increase the number of visits by one third by 2020 The target is to increase the number of visits by one third by 2020, from 3.27m visits to 4.39m visits - an increase of 3% per annum. Progress To date the number of visits is ahead of target. There were 3.76 million visits in compared with an on target figure of This represents an increase of 15% from However, this growth has been driven mainly by an increase of 21% in domestic visitors this figure has increased from 1.96 million visits in 2010 to 2.38 million visits in The number of overseas visitors has increased by 6% from 1.31 million visits in 2010 to 1.38 million visits in In 2010, 60% of trips to Edinburgh were made by domestic visitors (from UKTS). In 2014 this had risen to 63% and the proportion of overseas visitors had fallen from 40% to 37%. Figure 1 shows the figures achieved compared with the target to This figure combines data from the IPS, the Great Britain Travel Survey (GBTS) and an estimate for Northern Ireland 4

7 MILLIONS OF TRIPS Figure 3-1: Progress against the target number of trips to YEAR Target number of trips (m) Actual number oftrips Source: 2010 uses UKTS and IPS data are three year averages from IPS & GBTS and include estimates for Northern Ireland) Visitor nights There has also been growth in the number of nights, although this has been slightly more modest. In 2014 there were million visitor nights, slightly below the on target figure of million. However, the number has increased from million in 2010 to million in 2014 and this represents an increase of 11%. The average duration of visitor trips in 2014 was broadly the same as in nights for domestic visitors and 5.3 nights for overseas visitors. Figure 2 shows the progress against the target values. 5

8 MILLIONS OF NIGHTS Figure 3-2: Progress against the target number of nights to YEAR Nights (m) Actual Source: 2010 uses UKTS and IPS data are three year averages from IPS & GBTS and include estimates for Northern Ireland) Average visitor expenditure Average spending per trip has increased by 7% in nominal terms and 2% in 2010 prices. In 2010 prices spend per trip is below the target Objective 2a: Increase the average spending of visitors by 10% by 2020 The target is to increase the average visitors spending in the city by 10% by 2020 from (in 2010) to (in 2020) in today s prices. Progress Expenditure per trip has risen from in 2010 to in This represents an increase of 7%. Expenditure per trip for overseas visitors has grown by 13%, (from 400 to 451) and the figure for domestic (GBTS) visitors grew by 5% from 251 to 263. Figure 3 shows the average trip expenditure growth in current values. Although getting quite technical, it is important to bear in mind that the spend per trip growth target was based on 2010 (real) prices. Adjusting for inflation is done using GDP deflators calculated by HM Treasury 2. This means that in 2010 prices the average expenditure per trip is , an increase of around 5 per trip or 2% on the GDP deflators are calculated by HM Treasury and available at summer-budget

9 PER TRIP baseline value of This is slightly below target for the overall real growth of 10% by Figure 3-3: Progress against average visitor spending target to YEAR Trip expenditure target Actual spend per trip In 2010 prices Source: 2010 uses UKTS and IPS data are three year averages from IPS & GBTS and include estimates for Northern Ireland) Total visitor expenditure Total visitor expenditure has risen to 1,252 million, an increase of 23%. In 2010 prices total expenditure is around the same as the target Objective 2b: Increase total visitor expenditure to 1,500 million by 2020 Combining the increase in trips and the increase in expenditure is expected to generate an extra 485 million per annum by 2020, taking the total visitor spending from 1,015 million to 1,500 million (in 2010 prices). Progress The large increase in domestic trips has ensured that overall expenditure is well above target. Total expenditure has increased from 1,015 million in 2010 to 1,252 million in 2014 (an increase of 23%). Assuming a straight line increase to the target of 1,500 million, (shown in Figure 4) the on target figure for 2014 is 1,188. This means, the actual figure is well above target in nominal terms. Adjusting for inflation (see above) gives 1,186 million in 2010 prices, which is marginally below the target to date and represents growth of 17% in real terms since

10 MILLIONS OF S Figure 3-4: Progress against total visitor expenditure ( 1,500 million by 2020) YEAR Target total expenditure Actual total expenditure In 2010 prices Source: 2010 uses UKTS and IPS data are three year averages from IPS & GBTS and include estimates for Northern Ireland) Seasonality The proportion of trips between October and March has decreased from 40% to 38% Objective 3: Reduce seasonality across the sector The target is to achieve 50% of the additional visits during the months of October to March. The aspiration is that by 2020, 50% of the additional 1.12m trips to Edinburgh (over the 2010 base) are in the October to March period. Overall this would change the current 40:60 split among all visitors (October to March: April to September) to 43:57. Progress The baseline presented in the Strategy 3 shows that 40% of visits were taken between October and March. In 2014, this figure was 38% of the total (down from 42% in 2012 and 2013). However, as shown below this change is due to the increase in summer months outstripping the growth also experienced during the winter months. The number of visits in between April and September has increased from 1.96m in 2010 to 2.28m in 2014 (an increase of 16%). Visits in January to March and October to December have increased from 1.31m in 2010 to 1.48m in 2014 (13% increase). 3 The baseline uses the seasonal split based on 2009 data is from UKTS. The 2011 to 2014 figures are GBTS and IPS therefore exclude NI 8

11 Number of visitor trips (m) Figure 3-5: Seasonality in Edinburgh s tourism sector Oct-Mar Apr-Sept Source: 2010 uses UKTS and IPS data are three year averages from IPS & GBTS and include estimates for Northern Ireland 9

12 4. Employment Employment There are two measures of employment: one measures the number of jobs in sustainable tourism businesses and the second measures the number of jobs supported by the additional tourist expenditure. Both are relevant and are reviewed in turn below. Overall employment in sustainable tourism-related sectors Employment in tourism-related jobs has increased to 30,200 (no update from last report since 2014 data not yet available) The Scottish Government provides estimates of the number of jobs in each local authority 4. This measures the number of jobs in sectors that provide tourism services, for example bars and restaurants, art galleries, museums etc. It therefore includes jobs supported by local spending and not just visitors. A list of the sectors included in this definition is shown in Annex A. Data is from the Business Register and Employment Survey. The analysis uses three year averages to provide a more robust assessment. In Edinburgh, the number of jobs in tourism-related sectors was 28,500 in Using three year averages the values for 2011, 2012 and 2013 are 28,500, 28,900 and 30,200. Data for 2014 are not yet available from the Scottish Government. Employment supported by the growth in visitor expenditure The Strategy aims to increase the employment from visitor expenditure by 8,414 jobs by This target assumes that 87% of spend contributes to new employment and that the average cost per full time equivalent (FTE) job is 50, With steady growth, the target number of new jobs by 2014, is 3,000. Progress On the basis set out in the strategy, the growth in expenditure from 2010 to 2014 (in 2010 prices) is 237 million which based on the ratio of turnover to employment, would support 3,400 jobs 6. This figure is well in excess of the target for 2014 (3,000), and broadly in line with the BRES employment data reported in the previous section. However, these figures should be treated with caution. 4 Scottish Government, ONS (Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) 5 This was derived from STEAM (2010) data 6 It is difficult to anticipate how much of the additional expenditure reported will contribute to new employment and how much of the new expenditure will be delivered with the existing workforce (and improved productivity). 10

13 5. Other indicators In addition to the headline targets set in the strategy there are a number of other indicators which can be effectively monitored and provide more detailed insight into the performance of the Edinburgh tourism sector. Gross Value Added As with employment there are two measures: one measures GVA in sustainable tourism businesses, and the second measures the GVA supported just by tourist expenditure. GVA in tourismrelated businesses has increased to 572 million (no update from last report since 2013 data not yet available) GVA in sustainable tourism-related sectors The Scottish Government provides estimates of the GVA in sustainable tourism for each local authority, although the data currently is only provided to This measures GVA in sectors that provide tourism services, for example bars and restaurants, art galleries, museums etc. It therefore includes GVA supported by local spending and not just visitors. The sectors included in this definition is shown in Annex A. In Edinburgh, GVA in tourism-related sectors has increased from 470 million in 2010 to 507 million in 2011 and then to 572 million in In 2012, Edinburgh accounted for 18% of all the Scottish tourism businesses GVA. It had grown at a far faster rate (22%) between 2010 and 2012 than reported for Scotland as a whole (12%). Data for 2013 are not yet available from the Scottish Government. GVA supported by visitor expenditure GVA supported by tourist expenditure has increased 37% to 619 million The increases in expenditure reported in the GBTS and IPS surveys will lead to a significant increase in GVA. There is no target for growth in GVA, but it remains an important indicator of economic contribution. Based on the change in expenditure between 2010 and 2014, GVA is estimated to increase by 37% to 619 million. To calculate this, visitor expenditure is allocated to spending categories: accommodation, food and drink, retail, entertainment and transport. The Scottish Annual Business Survey provides a ratio of turnover (or expenditure) to GVA for each of these categories of expenditure. These are applied to expenditure in each category and then aggregated to give an overall change in GVA. Table 5-1 shows 619 million of GVA supported by tourism expenditure in This figure is equivalent to around 3% of the total GVA generated annually by the city 7 7 City of Edinburgh GVA is estimated at 18,600 million in 2013 (ONS Regional GVA data) /stb-regional-gva-dec-2014.html#tab-Local-area--NUTS3--GVA-estimates 11

14 Table 5-1: GVA supported by tourism expenditure Change Total ( millions) % Source: Uses the overall visitor expenditure from GBTS and IPS, the expenditure profile from the Edinburgh Visitor Survey and the turnover per job data from the Scottish Annual Business Survey Business trips The number of business trips fell 14% from 2010 to 2014 There are a range of datasets which can be used to monitor business tourism. Using data in the GBTS and IPS surveys, the number of business trips 8 fell 14% between 2010 and 2014, from 660,000 to 570,000. These figures are likely to reflect the reduction in discretionary business tourism following the recession, with some business travel potentially shifting from overnight to day trips (and therefore not included in these figures). Figures provided by Marketing Edinburgh show that since 2010/11 the number of conferences has dropped slightly by 8% but the number of delegates has increased by 9%. It should be noted that these figures only include events where Marketing Edinburgh have had some involvement. Table 5-2: Data on Edinburgh conferences Year Number of events Number of delegates 2014/ , / , / , / , / ,539 Source: Marketing Edinburgh In addition, Edinburgh s position in the International Congress and Convention Association (ICCA) rankings has climbed back up to 31, up nine places from the 2014 ranking. Overall the ranking is now higher than its baseline ranking in A high point of 29 th position was achieved in Table 5-3: ICCA rankings Year of ranking Ranking Source: Marketing Edinburgh Convention Bureau 8 As measured by purpose of trip stated in GBTS and IPS 12

15 In the last financial year (April 2013 to March 2014) Edinburgh Convention Bureau generated 90.5m in economic impact, supporting 151 conferences. This was very similar to the previous year s figure of 84.4m). Edinburgh Airport continues to have record passenger numbers Airport passengers and routes The number of airport passengers 9 has risen by 18% since 2010 to 10.2 million in Since then the numbers have grown further. Edinburgh Airport s website reports that summer 2015 was the busiest yet at the airport, with four consecutive months of more than 1 million passengers using the airport 10. Edinburgh Airport has also announced a number of major new routes over the past year including: A new Easyjet service between Edinburgh and Funchal, in Madeira started in February 2015 Etihad Airways, the national carrier of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), launched their new daily service between Edinburgh and Abu Dhabi today in June 2015 The Qatar Airways service between Edinburgh and Doha which started in May 2014 was made a daily service in May 2015 It was also announced that a new daily Delta service from Edinburgh Airport direct to New York JFK will start in Sales of Festival tickets increased from 2.5 million in 2011 to 2.9 million in 2014 Festival tickets Edinburgh s Festival ticket sales provide another useful measure of activity (Table 5-4). These figures show ticket sales increasing from 2.5 million in 2011 to nearly 2.9 million in 2014, with both summer and winter festivals increasing ticket sales. There are some small changes for individual festivals, but the overall pattern is of steady growth over the past couple of years. There has been no change to the data in this section as figures for 2015 are still being collated. Table 5-4: Edinburgh s Festivals ticket sales Festival Science 32,976 26,169 25,084 33,250 Imaginate 10,430 9,856 8,652 11,403 Film 34,464 40,000 44,000 46,000 Storytelling 19,432 20,927 21,076 21,076* Hogmanay 70,000 70,000 70,000 70,000* Jazz 21,285 22,300 26,850 30,057 9 Civil Aviation Authority - UK Airport Statistics

16 Festival Art 1,554 1,548 2,443 2,793 Fringe 1,877,119 1,857,202 1,943,493 2,183,591 Tattoo 220, , , ,000 International 135, , , ,115 Book 112, , , ,782 Mela 26,500 26,000 19,950 26,000 TOTAL 2,562,050 2,551,055 2,637,778 2,895,817 Source: Festivals Edinburgh (Nov 2014) * estimates based on previous year 14

17 Occupancy and room rates Hotel occupancy levels increased slightly between 2010 and 2014, with larger increases in RevPAR and ADR Hotel occupancy rates provide a good measure of the level of tourism activity, although they are affected by changes in the supply of rooms. The data used here is provided by STR Global. There is no target in the strategy for occupancy or revenue per room, which would be expected to respond to changes in demand. Between 2010 and 2014, average hotel occupancy has increased slightly, by 5%. There have been larger increases in revenue per available room (RevPAR) and the average daily room rate (ADR), increasing by 10% and 13% respectively. Table 5-5: Accommodation progress indicators Indicator Change Average hotel occupancy % Average Daily Room Rate (ADR) Revenue Per Available Room (revpar) 76.85% 79.69% 77.32% 79.69% 80.54% 5% % % Source: STR Global The overall score for visitor experience is broadly the same Visitor experience The Edinburgh Visitor Survey (EVS) provides scores for a number of aspects of visitors trips to the city. A selection of the results are shown in Table 5-6. Most scores have risen slightly between 2010 and 2013, though the overall quality score is broadly the same as three years ago. There has been no change to the data in this section as the 2014 EVS data is not available. Table 5-6: Selected visitor experience scores Change Customer service rating - attractions % Customer service rating - restaurants % Customer service rating - accommodation % Customer service rating - pubs & bars % Value for money rating % Cleanliness rating % Safety rating % Overall quality rating for Edinburgh visit % Source: Edinburgh Visitor Surveys (only three quarters of data available for 2013) 15

18 Visitor Attractions The number of visits to the top five attractions in Edinburgh has risen by 38% Between 2010 and 2014, the number of visits to the top five attractions (paid and free) in Edinburgh increased by 50% from 4.1 million to 6.2 million visits. In terms of the individual attractions, the National Museum of Scotland has seen the greatest change with its numbers increasing from around 619,000 in 2010 up to nearly 1.6 million in 2014 (an increase of 165%) - the refurbished parts of the museum reopened in The National Museum of Scotland was once again the most popular attraction in The second most visited attraction is Edinburgh Castle which has increased its visitor numbers over the four years by 24%, nearly 300,000 visitors. Table 5-7: Top Edinburgh visitor attraction visitor numbers Edinburgh Castle 1,196,248 National Museum of Scotland 1,494,728 Scottish National Gallery 913,314 Edinburgh Castle 1,302,825 St Giles Cathedral 710,010 Scottish National Gallery 923,321 Royal Botanical Garden 707,244 St Giles' Cathedral 851,375 National Museum of Scotland 619,254 Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh 790,545 Total 4,146,070 5,362, National Museum of Scotland 1,893,521 National Museum of Scotland 1,768,090 Edinburgh Castle 1,230,177 Edinburgh Castle 1,420,027 Scottish National Gallery 961,573 St Giles Cathedral 940,530 St Giles Cathedral 904,411 Scottish National Gallery 933,296 Edinburgh Zoo 810,937 Edinburgh Zoo 760,897 Total 5,800,619 5,822, National Museum of Scotland 1,639,509 Edinburgh Castle 1,480,676 Scottish National Gallery 1,295,015 St Giles Cathedral 1,029,359 Royal Botanic Garden 766,250 Total 6,210,809 Source: VisitScotland factsheets and GCU Visitor Attraction Monitor 16

19 6. Comparison with other cities Visitor trips Relative to Scotland, Edinburgh has performed well. This comparison compares the 2010 figures with the three year average to Nationally the number of tourism trips to Scotland increased by 3% between 2010 and 2014 compared with the 15% increase in Edinburgh. The growth in Edinburgh has been slightly higher than Birmingham (14% over the last four years) but not as rapid as other cities such as Manchester (24%) and Liverpool (29%) (Figure 6-1). While these figures are helpful, the GBTS and IPS surveys add caveats and stress that some of these results are based on small sample sizes and should be treated with caution. Figure 6-1: % change in the number of tourist trips (three year averages) 35% 30% 29% 25% 24% 20% 15% 15% 14% 10% 7% 5% 3% 0% Scotland England Edinburgh Birmingham Manchester Liverpool Source: UKTS (2010), GBTS ( ) and IPS ( ) 17

20 Occupancy comparisons The STR data for 2010 to 2014 allows a comparison of occupancy rates across cities in Europe. Figure 6-2 shows occupancy rates in order, from the highest (in 2014) down. Occupancy rates in Edinburgh are high by European standards, just below London, and Glasgow (which saw a notable increase in 2014, in part due to the Commonwealth Games) but above Inverness and Aberdeen. Comparing the individual years shows a mixed picture. In Edinburgh occupancy rates have risen between 2010 and 2014 by nearly four percentage points. Figure 6-2: Occupancy rates 2010 to 2014 Greater London Glasgow Edinburgh Paris Inverness Hamburg Manchester Amsterdam+ Dublin Aberdeen Belfast Cardiff Liverpool Barcelona Copenhagen Vienna Birmingham Prague Rome 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Source: STR data 2010 to

21 Hotel Average Daily Rates The average daily rate in Edinburgh increased again from 80 in 2010 to 86 in It is currently mid-table in terms of current rates. Compared to the 2013 figures, the average daily rates in Inverness and particularly Glasgow have improved over the last 12 months (again probably due to the Commonwealth Games effect). Figure 6-3 shows the changes in the rates over the two years. Paris, Aberdeen, Copenhagen, London and Dublin recorded the biggest gains. At the other end of the table, rates fell slightly in Rome, Prague and Vienna. Figure 6-3: Change in Average Daily Rate between 2010 and 2014 Paris Aberdeen Copenhagen Greater London Dublin Glasgow Edinburgh Inverness Manchester Belfast Amsterdam+ Liverpool Barcelona Cardiff Birmingham Hamburg Vienna Prague Rome Source: STR data 2010 and

22 7. Summary Since 2010 tourism in Edinburgh has performed strongly against a backdrop of continuing economic recovery in our main markets across the UK, Europe and US. The national tourism surveys show significant growth, mainly as a result of a large increase (21%) in domestic visitors from England, Wales and Scotland. The number of overseas trips have increased by 6%. Total tourism expenditure has grown by 23% since The sector continues to perform well against strategy targets for growth in visitor numbers. However, it is slightly below target in terms of the value of the sector measured by visitor expenditure (in 2010 prices). Table 7-1: Progress against the four strategy targets Three strategy targets Progress by end 2014 Increase the number of visits to the city by one third Increase total expenditure by 3% a year Increase the average spending of visitors to the city by 10% (at 2010 prices) Reduce seasonality across the sector Up 15% to date - ahead of target Up 23% in nominal terms (17% in 2010 prices) on target Up 7% in nominal terms (2% in 2010 prices) just below target Proportion of trips Oct to March down from 40% to 38% - below target 2015 and looking forward Edinburgh has performed strongly in recent years and emerging data for 2015 suggests that this trend will continue. For example, Historic Scotland reported that Edinburgh Castle had a record-breaking summer period with an increase of 7% in visitor numbers 11 and Edinburgh Airport also had its busiest summer yet. There are also a range of new Edinburgh hotel developments in the pipeline which will help to grow the capacity of the sector including at the St James Centre, New Waverley, the Haymarket and Fountainbridge. The latest tourism figures for Scotland are also encouraging showing that overseas and domestic tourism visitors to Scotland have both increased by seven per cent in the 12 months to June It is reasonable to assume that Edinburgh will have at least matched this growth

23 Annex A: Definition of tourism sector This definition is used by the Scottish Government to produce statistics on employment and GVA for the sector in Edinburgh. This will include jobs supported by local spending in these sectors as well as spending by visitors. This is not the same as the employment and GVA supported by visitor expenditure. Definition of sustainable tourism sector used to define growth sector (Scottish Government) SIC 55.1: Hotels and similar accommodation SIC 55.2: Holiday and other short-stay accommodation SIC 55.3: Camping grounds, recreational vehicle parks and trailer parks SIC 56.1: Restaurants and mobile food service activities SIC 56.3: Beverage serving activities SIC 79.12: Tour operator activities SIC 79.9: Other reservation service and related activities SIC 91.02: Museum activities SIC 91.03: Operation of historical sites and buildings and similar visitor attractions SIC 91.04: Botanical and zoological gardens and nature reserve activities SIC 93.11: Operation of sports facilities SIC : Other sports activities (not including activities of racehorse owners) nec SIC Activities of amusement parks and theme parks SIC 93.29: Other amusement and recreation activities Source: A-1

24 Annex B: UKTS and GBTS The survey used to provide the baseline estimates for domestic tourism, UKTS was changed in 2011 to cover just Great Britain, rather than the UK. The effect of this is that data from Northern Ireland is not captured through the GBTS or the IPS. However, information on the number of Northern Irish trips to Scotland is provided as a supplement produced by the Northern Ireland Statistical and Research Agency (NISRA). Their data collection method is broadly similar to that used in the GBTS. In order to make a valid comparison with the 2010 baseline, it is therefore necessary to include an estimate for visits from Northern Ireland. The UKTS data shows 277,000 trips from NI to Scotland in The number to Edinburgh was 98,000. This represents 35% of the number of NI trips to Scotland. Assuming that the proportion that visited Edinburgh remains at 35% of the national total this gives 110,000 in These figures can be added to the GBTS and IPS figures to give a total that is comparable with the 2010 baseline. A similar process has been done with expenditure. In 2010, Edinburgh accounted for 40% of the Northern Irish visitor expenditure in Scotland. This means that in 2014 an estimated 42 million was spent in Edinburgh by NI visitors. It is possible that the absence of the Northern Ireland figures in the GBTS will have a small effect on some of the other indicators used in monitoring the strategy. For example, seasonality (the proportion visiting between October and March). However, this effect is likely to be very small. B-1