The Changing Demography of Scotland. Kirsty MacLachlan National Records of Scotland

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1 The Changing Demography of Scotland Kirsty MacLachlan National Records of Scotland

2 People (millions) Scotland s population, 1855 to Year

3 Persons (thousands) Births and deaths in Scotland, 1951 to Births Deaths Year

4 Changes to the population Ageing Migration

5 Persons ('000s) Ageing over the past 10 years, ,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, ,000-10% +13% -8% +6% +12% , , % 200, & Over Age

6 Persons ('000s) Projected ageing over the next 25 years, ,200,000 1,000,000-2% -7% -5% -7% +33% 800, % 600, , , & Over Age

7 Persons (thousands) Variant population projections 6,000 5,800 5,600 5,400 5,200 5,000 High mig High fertility High LE Principal Low LE Low fertility Low mig Zero mig 4,800 4, Year

8 Centenarians (per 100,000) Very elderly population rising quickly Year

9 Age Expectation of life at birth, Scotland, Males Females Projected Year

10 Percentage of population Age structure in % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Dumfries & Galloway East Lothian SCOTLAND Shetland Islands Area City of Edinburgh West Lothian Glasgow City Children Working Age Pensionable Age

11 Percentage of population Age structure in 2009 and % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Dumfries & Galloway East Lothian SCOTLAND 2033 data is based on 2008-based population projections Shetland Islands Area City of Edinburgh West Lothian Glasgow City Children Working Age Pensionable Age

12 Ageing effect projected dependency ratio Children Pension age Total Dependants

13 Dependents per 1,000 working age Dependency ratio Children Pensioners Total Dependants Year

14 Persons ('000s) Estimated net migration in Scotland, Year to 30 June

15 Persons Origin of in-migrants to Scotland 70,000 60,000 From rest of UK From overseas 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Year

16 Average annual migrants Age profile of migrants 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000-4,000-6,000-8, & Age over In Out Net

17 In-migrants per 1,000 population Rate of in-migration to council areas Aberdeen City City of Edinburgh Stirling Glasgow City Dundee City Perth & Kinross Argyll & Bute Scottish Borders Moray East Lothian Eilean Siar Highland Aberdeenshire Shetland Islands Orkney Islands Midlothian Clackmannanshire East Renfrewshire South Ayrshire East Dunbartonshire Angus Fife West Lothian East Ayrshire Dumfries & Galloway Renfrewshire North Ayrshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Falkirk Overseas Rest of UK Within Scotland North Lanarkshire Inverclyde

18 In-migrants per 1,000 population Rate of in-migration to council areas Overseas Rest of UK Within Scotland Aberdeen City City of Edinburgh Glasgow City

19 Turnover per 1,000 population Turnover of migrants, 2008/ Glasgow City Aberdeen City Edinburgh, City of Stirling Dundee City Argyll & Bute Perth & Kinross Scottish Borders Eilean Siar Moray East Lothian Highland Orkney Islands Aberdeenshire Clackmannanshire East Renfrewshire Shetland Islands Midlothian East Dunbartonshire South Ayrshire Angus Fife West Lothian Dumfries & Galloway North Ayrshire Renfrewshire East Ayrshire West Dunbartonshire South Lanarkshire Falkirk North Lanarkshire Inverclyde

20 Registrations (thousands) Origin of migrants to Scotland European Union EU Accession States Other European Africa Asia and Middle East The Americas Australasia and Oceania EU Accession States Calendar Year Asia and Middle East European Union Africa The Americas Australasia and Oceania Other European

21 Households and Housing In 1991 there were 2.04 million households in Scotland. By 2033, the number of households is projected to increase to 2.8 million. Most of the increase is the result of an ageing population and more people living alone or in smaller households, rather than an increase in the overall population.

22 Number of Households Scotland s Households 1991 to ,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Year

23 Projected percentage change in households by Council area, 2008 to 2033 The largest projected percentage increases are in the east of Scotland. In contrast, Inverclyde has a projected decrease of 5 per cent.

24 Projected Household Composition for adult, 1 child 2 adults 795,890 2 person households All Households 2,331, person households 694,570 1 adult, 2+ children 3+ adults 2+ adults, 1+ children 1 adult male 840,790 1 person households 1 adult female

25 Number of households Changes in household types 1,400,000 1,200, ,000, , , , , adult 2 adults 1 adult with children Type of household 2+ adults with children 3+ adults

26 Number of households Changes in age of head of household 800, , , , , , , , Age of head of household

27 Households Variant Household Projections, 2008 to ,000,000 2,900,000 2,800,000 High Migration Principal Low Migration Zero Migration 2001 headships 2,700,000 2,600,000 2,500,000 2,400,000 2,300, Year

28 Percentage of dwellings in the area One-adult households, by level of deprivation, % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Most deprived Least deprived

29 Percentage of dwellings in the area One-adult households, by urban rural classification, % 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Large urban areas Other urban areas Accessible small towns Remote small towns Accessible rural areas Remote rural areas

30 Percentage of dwellings in the area Dwelling type, by level of deprivation, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Flats Terraced Semi-detached Detached Unknown 20% 10% 0% Most deprived Least deprived

31 Percentage of dwellings in the area Dwelling type, by urban-rural classification, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Flats Terraced Semi-detached Detached Unknown 20% 10% 0% Large urban areas Other urban areas Accessible small towns Remote small towns Accessible rural areas Remote rural areas

32 Percentage of dwellings in the area Vacant dwellings and second homes, by level of deprivation, % 4% % Vacant % Second homes 3% 2% 1% 0% Most deprived Least deprived

33 Percentage of dwellings in the area Vacant dwellings and second homes, by urban-rural classification, % 7% % Vacant % Second homes 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Large urban areas Other urban areas Accessible small towns Remote small towns Accessible rural areas Remote rural areas

34 The percentage of dwellings which are second homes in each data zone in Some remote rural areas have the highest proportions of second homes, particularly parts of the west coast and some of the islands, Highland Perthshire and the area around the Cairngorms National Park.

35 The percentage of vacant dwellings in each data zone in Across Scotland as a whole, 2.9 % of dwellings are vacant. Remote rural areas have higher percentages of vacant dwellings, 4.5 % of all dwellings in these areas.

36 Demography statistics on GROS website: Comments and suggestions to Kirsty MacLachlan: Demography Division National Records of Scotland

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